What a Sanders Win in Nevada Would Really Mean

LAS VEGAS—Democrats everywhere may start asking the same volatile question after Nevada holds its presidential caucus on Saturday: Can the party deny Bernie Sanders the nomination if he arrives at the Democratic National Convention this summer with a plurality, but not a majority, of the delegates?

That question is becoming more urgent because Nevada, where the candidates will meet tonight for their ninth debate, looks poised to nudge that once-fanciful scenario closer to reality.

Each of the presidential camps believes that Sanders, who placed a close second here in 2016, is positioned to win, a victory that would solidify his standing as the clear leader of the party’s liberal wing and the race’s overall front-runner. But the results are unlikely to eliminate doubts that he can expand his support much beyond the one-fourth to one-third of the party that constitutes his hard-core base. Simultaneously, the Nevada outcome could intensify the muddle in the middle that has prevented any centrist candidate from emerging as the principal alternative to Sanders.

The result: While the past four contested Democratic primaries effectively became