Be Wary of a Model That Shows a Decline in COVID-19 Deaths
On April 15, 2020, 2,271 people in the United States will die from COVID-19.That day, the U.S. will be short 61,509 hospital beds, 33,440 slots in intensive care units, and 26,753 ventilators. By August, the death toll will have climbed to 81,114.
April 15 is not arbitrary. It is the date a new model forecasts the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. will peak, (IHME), supported by the Gates Foundation. It was developed at the request of the University of Washington School of Medicine, other U.S. hospital systems, and state governments working “to determine when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients,” according to a statement from the organization. Data fed into the model includes mortality rates from the World Health Organization and U.S. local and state governments; implementation of social distancing policies across the U.S.; reports from the American Hospital Association on licensed hospital bed and ICU capacity; and COVID-19-related demand for ICU services. The model is updated weekly with new information.
