Why COVID-19 Flare-Ups Will Keep Happening

We all want to get back to our lives—go out for a drink, see a movie, hug our parents and grandparents, and bring our cities back to life. When will the virus be under control? And how do we measure that?

Much of the media coverage of COVID-19 talks about  or “R-nought,” the average number of people each sick person infects. If is bigger than 1, cases grow exponentially, and an epidemic spreads across the population. But if we can keep below 1, we can limit the disease to isolated outbreaks and keep it under control. This has produced a flood of websites that estimate in each country or each state, treating