No Right Answers

IN AN IDEAL WORLD, there would be enough vaccine doses to inoculate everyone who wanted to get immunized against COVID-19. People would get their shots on a first-come, first-served basis; we would achieve herd immunity in a matter of months; and COVID-19 would soon become a distant memory. But with some 240 million people over age 16 who need a COVID-19 vaccine (and two doses at that) and just over 42 million administered by early February, supply is far below demand and will likely remain that way for months to come, despite vaccinemakers’ pushing production lines as hard as they can.

As the U.S. works through the vaccine priority groups and begins to shift into ever larger populations in coming months, the pace of doses shipped could continue to outstrip the pace of administration. So far, the shots have been reserved primarily for health care workers, people living in long-term-care facilities and those over 65. Some states have begun vaccinating essential workers like law-enforcement officers, teachers and those who work in mass transit. All of these groups are relatively easy to reach and vaccinate since they’re well defined. But the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines’ next big priority group—people with underlying health conditions that make them more vulnerable to COVID-19—is much less so.

While many are connected to the health care system by virtue of their medical conditions, there is a substantial portion of