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    Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update: September 2014
    Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update: September 2014
    Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update: September 2014
    Ebook68 pages30 minutes

    Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update: September 2014

    By Asian Development Bank

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    About this ebook

    The Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update (QEU) has been produced by the Bangladesh Resident Mission of the Asian Development Bank since March 2001. The QEU provides information and analysis on Bangladesh's macroeconomic and sector developments, key development challenges, and policy and institutional reforms. It has wide readership in government, academia, development partners, private sector, and civil society.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherAsian Development Bank
    Release dateSep 1, 2014
    ISBN9789292548124
    Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update: September 2014

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      Book preview

      Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update - Asian Development Bank

      Macroeconomic Developments

      Highlights

      • Gross domestic product increased by 6.1% in FY2014

      • Growth is supported by macroeconomic stability

      • Agriculture growth was higher

      • Industry growth moderated in FY2014

      • Inflation is slowing in recent months

      • Capacity deficits in line agencies need to be addressed to increase infrastructure investment

      • Better business climate essential for boosting private and foreign direct investment

      Sector Performance and Economic Growth

      GDP growth in FY2014 was 6.1%

      1. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in FY2014 (ended 30 June 2014) was slightly higher (6.1%) than in FY2013 (6.0%). Public investment rose to 7.3% of GDP, from 6.6% a year earlier, contributing to higher GDP growth, although private investment declined from 21.8% of GDP to 21.4%. Private consumption contributed moderately because of weaker remittance inflows. Net exports boosted GDP growth, with export earnings expanding more than import payments. GDP growth was reasonably broad based as agriculture and services recorded higher growth, although industry growth slowed.

      6.4% GDP growth projected for FY2015

      2. GDP growth in FY2015 is projected at 6.4% (Figure 1). Private consumption is expected to pick up as remittance inflows strengthen, and contribute to GDP growth. Exports are expected to perform better in the second half of the year. The government is stepping up project implementation to improve public investment in infrastructure.

      Figure 1: GDP Growth by Sector

      Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. 2014. National Accounts Statistics. June. Dhaka; Asian Development Bank estimates.

      3. Several downside risks could, however, affect the GDP growth projection. Renewed political unrest could reduce investor confidence and slow down economic activity. Weak recovery in the European Union economies could impede export growth. Unfavorable weather is always a risk factor (paras. 61–85).

      Macroeconomic management remains sound

      4. Macroeconomic management remained sound. The central bank’s cautious monetary policy stance contributed to gradually lowering the inflation rate since January 2014. In the FY2015 budget, the authorities took several revenue reform measures with a view to boosting revenue collection and keeping the fiscal deficit under control. In FY2014, the current account balance was in surplus.

      Boosting private investment essential for lifting growth

      5. Bangladesh needs to significantly increase private investment to shift the economy to a higher growth trajectory. To encourage higher private sector investment, more public investment will be needed especially for addressing deficits in power supply and skills shortages. Public investment will also need to rise for improving urban infrastructure and services, and transport connectivity; and developing port facilities. To this end, greater attention will be needed to strengthen project implementation capacity in public sector agencies.

      Better investment climate

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