DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES

No. 2690

OFFICIAL INTERVENTION IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: IS IT EFFECTIVE, AND, IF SO, HOW DOES IT WORK?
Lucio Sarno and Mark P Taylor

INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS

ZZZFHSURUJ
Available online at:

ZZZFHSURUJSXEVGSV'3DVS
www.ssrn.com/xxx/xxx/xxx

ISSN 0265-8003

OFFICIAL INTERVENTION IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: IS IT EFFECTIVE, AND, IF SO, HOW DOES IT WORK?
Lucio Sarno, Warwick Business School and CEPR Mark P Taylor, Warwick Business School and CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2690 February 2001
Centre for Economic Policy Research 9098 Goswell Rd, London EC1V 7RR, UK Tel: (44 20) 7878 2900, Fax: (44 20) 7878 2999 Email: cepr@cepr.org, Website: www.cepr.org This Discussion Paper is issued under the auspices of the Centres research programme in International Macroeconomics. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Research disseminated by CEPR may include views on policy, but the Centre itself takes no institutional policy positions. The Centre for Economic Policy Research was established in 1983 as a private educational charity, to promote independent analysis and public discussion of open economies and the relations among them. It is pluralist and non-partisan, bringing economic research to bear on the analysis of medium- and long-run policy questions. Institutional (core) finance for the Centre has been provided through major grants from the Economic and Social Research Council, under which an ESRC Resource Centre operates within CEPR; the Esme Fairbairn Charitable Trust; and the Bank of England. These organizations do not give prior review to the Centres publications, nor do they necessarily endorse the views expressed therein. These Discussion Papers often represent preliminary or incomplete work, circulated to encourage discussion and comment. Citation and use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character. Copyright: Lucio Sarno and Mark P Taylor

CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2690 February 2001

ABSTRACT Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is it Effective, and, if so, How Does it Work?*
In this Paper we assess the progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. To this end, we review the theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published within the last decade or so. Our reading of the recent literature leads us to conclude that, in contrast with the professions consensus view of the 1980s, official intervention can be effective, especially through its role as a signal of policy intentions, and especially when it is publicly announced and concerted. We also note, however, an apparent empirical puzzle concerning the secrecy of much intervention and suggest an additional way in which intervention may be effective but which has so far received little attention in the literature, namely through its role in remedying a coordination failure in the foreign exchange market. JEL Classification: C10, F31, F41 Keywords: non-linear dynamics, purchasing power parity, real exchange rate, test power and unit root test Lucio Sarno Department of Finance Warwick Business School University of Warwick Coventry CV4 7AL UK Tel: (44 2476) 528219 Fax: (44 2476) 572871 Email: lucio.sarno@warwick.ac.uk
For further Discussion Papers by this author see:
www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?authorid=138519

Mark P Taylor Department of Finance Warwick Business School University of Warwick Coventry CV4 7AL UK Tel: (44 2476) 76573 008 Fax: (44 2476) 76523 032 Email: mark.taylor@wbs.warwick.ac.uk
For further Discussion Papers by this author see:
www.cepr.org/pubs/new-dps/dplist.asp?authorid=100357

*This Paper is forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Literature, 2001. We are grateful to John McMillan (editor) and three anonymous referees for thoughtful and constructive comments on a previous version. We are also grateful to Mike Artis, Michael Bordo, Richard Clarida, Bob Flood, Charles Goodhart, Peter Kenen, Richard Lyons, Marcus Miller, Chris Neely, Bill Poole, Dan Thornton, Ignazio Visco, Paolo Vitale, Axel Weber, John Williamson and Sushil Wadhwani for helpful conversations or comments on previous drafts. The Paper was partly written while Lucio Sarno was a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis. The views expressed in the Paper and any errors that may remain are the authors alone. Submitted 04 December 2000

NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY
Official exchange rate intervention in the foreign exchange market occurs when the authorities buy or sell foreign exchange, normally against their own currency and in order to affect the exchange rate. Whether or not official exchange rate intervention is effective in influencing exchange rates, and the means by which it does so, are issues of crucial policy importance, and they have been the subject of a vast academic and policy-related literature. Given the policy importance of official intervention, it is perhaps not surprising that this literature has been the venue for a substantial and ongoing economic controversy. Insofar as a consensus is discernible among economists and policy makers concerning the effectiveness and desirability of exchange rate intervention, it appears to have shifted several times over the past quarter of a century. This Paper summarizes the present authors reading of recent research on official exchange rate intervention what we have learned, what puzzles remain and where further research progress is most likely to be made. While the survey will be of use to specialists in international finance and macroeconomics, given the policy importance of the issue in hand we also believe that our assessment of the central question motivating our analysis will be of interest to a wider audience of economists and policy makers: is official exchange rate intervention effective and, if so, how does it work? The evidence on the effectiveness of official intervention is still mixed on balance, although the more recent literature does suggest a significant effect of official intervention on both the level and the change of exchange rates. Nevertheless, it is perhaps fair to say that the studies of the 1990s, which are largely supportive of the effectiveness of intervention, should perhaps be given more weight than the studies of the 1980s, which largely rejected the effectiveness of intervention. This is because of the removal of the two major handicaps characterizing the empirical studies of the 1980s, namely the lack of data on intervention and the lack of survey data on exchange rate expectations. Thus, the evidence provided since the early 1990s by studies using this high quality data seems to us to be sufficiently strong and econometrically sound to allow us to conclude cautiously that official intervention can be effective, especially if the intervention is publicly announced and concerted and provided that it is consistent with the underlying stance of monetary and fiscal policy. Nevertheless, further empirical work in this area is clearly warranted, especially given the increasing availability of high quality daily data on intervention. Of the two traditional channels of influence, it is tempting to conjecture that the portfolio balance channel will diminish in importance over time at least among the major industrialized countries as international capital markets become increasingly integrated and the degree of substitutability between financial assets

denominated in the major currencies increases. This suggests that, if intervention in the major currencies is effective at all through either of the traditional channels of influence, it will in future be effective primarily through the signalling channel. On the other hand, if the signalling channel is taken seriously, then an important secrecy puzzle emerges: many actual intervention operations in the foreign exchange market are secret. Given that the signalling channel is expected to work through altering the expectations of other market agents through policy announcements by monetary authorities, this is something of a puzzle which has not yet been adequately resolved in the literature. Further work on this issue is clearly required. Finally, we mention a third possible channel of influence for intervention that has, to date, received very little attention in the literature. This is through the role of intervention in remedying a coordination failure in the foreign exchange market. One way to think about this is as follows. First, the foreign exchange market may be subject to irrational speculative bubbles brought about by important noneconomic factors such as chartist or technical analysis which are known to have a significant effect on the market and which may impart swift movements of the exchange rate away from the level consistent with the underlying economic fundamentals (Frankel and Froot, 1990; Taylor and Allen, 1992). Once the exchange rate has moved a long way away from the fundamental equilibrium, it may be very hard for individual market agents to act to bring about a reversion of the exchange rate, even though they may strongly believe it to be misaligned, because of a coordination failure. If all of the smart money traders were to act simultaneously so as to sell the currency which is overvalued according to the economic fundamentals, then the bubble would be pricked. In practice, once the exchange rate gets stuck into a trend perhaps because of the widespread use of trend-following trading rules (Taylor and Allen, 1992) it takes a great deal of courage for an individual trader to attempt to buck the market. Publicly announced intervention operations can here be seen as fulfilling a coordinating role in that they may organize the smart money to enter the market at the same time. This route for the effectiveness of intervention might be termed the coordination channel. The mid-1980s dollar overvaluation provides a clear case study of the coordination channel: contemporary commentaries reveal a clear consensus in the dollar overvaluation yet it apparently took the publicly announced Plaza Agreement of the G5 countries to successfully puncture the bubble. The coordination channel is implicit in Dominguez and Frankels (1993a) discussion of intervention, and belief in its importance appears to form an important part of policy-makers views on intervention (e.g. Wadhwani, 2000; Cecchetti, Genberg, Lipsky and Wadhwani, 2000). Nevertheless, it has received scant attention in the academic literature to date. In our view, further theoretical and empirical work on the coordination channel is likely to be a very important avenue for future research in this area.

Lqwurgxfwlrq

R!fldo h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw rffxuv zkhq wkh dxwkrulwlhv ex| ru vhoo iruhljq h{fkdqjh/ qrupdoo| djdlqvw wkhlu rzq fxuuhqf| dqg lq rughu wr dhfw wkh h{fkdqjh udwh1 Zkhwkhu ru qrw r!fldo h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq lv hhfwlyh lq lq xhqflqj h{fkdqjh udwhv/ dqg wkh phdqv e| zklfk lw grhv vr/ duh lvvxhv ri fuxfldo srolf| lpsruwdqfh/ dqg wkh| kdyh ehhq wkh vxemhfw ri d ydvw dfdghplf dqg srolf|0uhodwhg olwhudwxuh1 Jlyhq wkh srolf| lpsruwdqfh ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq/ lw lv shukdsv qrw vxu0 sulvlqj wkdw wklv olwhudwxuh kdv ehhq wkh yhqxh iru d vxevwdqwldo dqg rqjrlqj hfrqrplf frqwuryhuv|1 Lqvridu dv d frqvhqvxv lv glvfhuqleoh dprqj hfrqrplvwv dqg srolf| pdnhuv frqfhuqlqj wkh hhfwlyhqhvv dqg ghvludelolw| ri h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq/ lw dsshduv wr kdyh vkliwhg vhyhudo wlphv ryhu wkh sdvw txduwhu ri d fhqwxu|1 Dw wkh wlph ri wkh froodsvh ri wkh Euhwwrq Zrrgv dgmxvwdeoh shj h{0 fkdqjh udwh v|vwhp lq wkh hduo| 4<:3v/ zkhq wkh lpsrwhqfh ri wkh dxwkrulwlhv wr krog wkh sdulwlhv lq wkh idfh ri pdvvlyh vshfxodwlyh dwwdfnv kdg dssduhqwo| ehhq ghprqvwudwhg rqo| wrr zhoo4 / wkh surihvvlrq dsshduhg vwurqjo| wr idyru d sxuh rdw/ lqyroylqj }hur lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Wkh 4<:3v h{shulhqfh zlwk rdwlqj h{fkdqjh udwhv dprqj wkh pdmru lqgxvwuldol}hg frxqwulhv/ dqg wkh hqvxlqj yrodwlolw| ri erwk qrplqdo dqg uhdo h{fkdqjh udwhv/ krzhyhu/ ohg wr d vkliw lq wklv frqvhqvxv vr wkdw/ e| wkh odwh 4<:3v/ erwk hfrqrplvwv dqg srolf| pdnhuv 0 sduwlfxoduo| ri frxqwulhv zklfk kdg vxhuhg d vxevwdqwldo orvv lq frpshwlwlyhqhvv 0 iuhtxhqwo| fulwlfl}hg wkh XV dxwkrulwlhv iru qrw lqwhuyhqlqj lq vxssruw ri wkh groodu1 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ sduwo| dv d uhvxow ri wkh uhdol}dwlrq ri wkh vshhg dqg hdvh zlwk zklfk fdslwdo frxog pryh ehwzhhq ghyhorshg frxqwulhv/ wkh suhydlolqj frqvhqvxv dprqj hfrqrplvwv/ srolf| pdnhuv dqg iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw sudfwlwlrqhuv gxulqj wkh hduo| 4<;3v dsshduhg wr eh wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq 0 dqg lq sduwlfxodu vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq/ zkhuh wkh hhfwv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq rq wkh grphvwlf prqh| vxsso| duh qhxwudol}hg 0 zdv qrw hhfwlyh ryhu dq|wklqj exw wkh yhu| vkruw uxq1 Qrw rqo| zdv wklv ylhz suhydohqw dprqj dfdghplf hfrqrplvwv/ lw dovr dsshduhg wr eh wkh frqvhqvxv ylhz ri srolf| pdnhuv/ v|perol}hg e| wkh frqfoxvlrqv ri wkh Mxujhqvhq Uhsruw +4<;6, rq h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq zklfk kdg ehhq frpplvvlrqhg e| wkh 4<;5 J:5 Hfrqrplf Vxpplw ri Khdgv ri Jryhuqphqw dw Yhuvdloohv16 Iroorzlqj wkh vwurqj dqg fkurqlf ryhuydoxdwlrq ri wkh XV groodu gxulqj wkh hduo| wr plg 4<;3v/ dqg d frppxqltx lvvxhg e| wkh ohdghuv ri wkh J8 lqgxvwul0
4 Zlooldpvrq +4<::/ s1 83, qrwhv= cE| wkh wlph wkdw wkh dgmxvwdeoh shj zdv dedqgrqhg/ fdslwdo prelolw| kdg ghyhorshg wr wkh srlqw zkhuh wkh Exqghvedqn frxog wdnh lq zhoo ryhu '4 eloolrq lq dq krxu zkhq wkh pdunhw kdg frph wr h{shfw wkdw dqrwkhu sdulw| fkdqjh zdv lpshqglqj1* 5 Wkh Jurxs ri : ru J: frxqwulhv duh wkh XV/ Mdsdq/ Jhupdq|/ Iudqfh/ wkh XN/ Lwdo| dqg Fdqdgd1 Wkh uvw yh frxqwulhv olvwhg deryh duh wkh Jurxs ri 8 ru J8 frxqwulhv1 6 Wkh Mxujhqvhq Uhsruw glg qrw surylgh yhu| h{solflw frqfoxvlrqv1 Wkh r!fldo suhvv uhohdvh ri wkh Ilqdqfh Plqlvwulhv dqg Fhqwudo Edqn Jryhuqruv ri wkh J: vwdwhg/ krzhyhu/ wkdw wkh pdlq uhvxowv ri wkh Mxujhqvhq Uhsruw pd| eh vxppdul}hg dv iroorzv= vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq dhfwv orqj0uxq h{fkdqjh udwhv pxfk ohvv wkdq qrqvwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq> vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq fdq lq xhqfh h{fkdqjh udwhv rqo| lq wkh vkruw uxq> frruglqdwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq fdq eh pxfk pruh srzhuixo uhodwlyh wr r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq e| d vlqjoh frxqwu|*v dxwkrulwlhv1

dol}hg frxqwulhv dw wkh Sod}d Krwho lq Qhz \run lq Vhswhpehu 4<;8 wr wkh hhfw wkdw frqfhuwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq zrxog eh xqghuwdnhq wr eulqj grzq wkh kljk groodu/ krzhyhu/ wkh frqvhqvxv dsshduhg wr kdyh vkliwhg rqfh pruh17 Iroorzlqj wkh gh0 folqh ri wkh XV groodu gxulqj wkh odwh 4<;3v/ d vxevhtxhqw phhwlqj ri wkh ohdghuv ri wkh J: lqgxvwuldol}hg qdwlrqv/ khog dw wkh Orxyuh lq Sdulv lq Iheuxdu| 4<;:/ ohg wr wkh djuhhphqw wkdw frruglqdwhg h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq vkrxog eh xq0 ghuwdnhq wr vwdelol}h wkh XV groodu zlwklq lqirupdo cuhihuhqfh udqjhv*/ dowkrxjk suhflvh wdujhw }rqh edqgv zhuh qrw hvwdeolvkhg18 Iroorzlqj wkh Sod}d dqg Orxyuh phhwlqjv/ r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh pdunhwv iru wkh pdmru h{fkdqjh udwhv kdv ehhq uhjxodu dqg dw wlphv khdy| +Revwihog/ 4<<3,1 Lq dgglwlrq/ h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq/ wrjhwkhu zlwk pdfur srolf| frruglqdwlrq/ sod|hg dq lpsruwdqw uroh lq wkh H{fkdqjh Udwh Phfkdqlvp +HUP, ri wkh Hxurshdq Prqhwdu| V|vwhp +HPV, ri wdujhw }rqhv ehwzhhq Hxurshdq h{fkdqjh udwhv19 Iroorzlqj wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri wkh hxur dv wkh vlqjoh Hxurshdq fxuuhqf| lq Mdqxdu| 4<<< dqg lwv lpphgldwh dqg shuvlvwhqw ghsuhfldwlrq djdlqvw wkh XV groodu/ fdoov iru frqfhuwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq dprqj wkh lqgxvwuldol}hg frxqwulhv wr vxssruw wkh hxur kdyh dw wlphv ehhq txlwh vwurqj1 Lqghhg/ h{dfwo| vxfk frqfhuwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq e| wkh J: frxqwulhv glg rffxu lq Vhswhpehu 5333: 1 Wklv sdshu vxppdul}hv wkh suhvhqw dxwkruv* uhdglqj ri uhfhqw uhvhdufk rq r!fldo h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq 0 zkdw zh kdyh ohduqhg/ zkdw sx}}ohv uhpdlq dqg zkhuh ixuwkhu uhvhdufk surjuhvv lv prvw olnho| wr eh pdgh1 Zkloh wkh vxuyh| zloo eh ri xvh wr vshfldolvwv lq lqwhuqdwlrqdo qdqfh dqg pdfurhfrqrplfv/ jlyhq wkh srolf| lpsruwdqfh ri wkh lvvxh lq kdqg zh dovr eholhyh wkdw rxu dvvhvvphqw ri wkh fhqwudo txhvwlrq prwlydwlqj rxu dqdo|vlv zloo eh ri lqwhuhvw wr d zlghu
7 Vrph dxwkruv dujxh wkdw wklv hperglphqw ri d qhz lqwhuyhqwlrq uhjlph vwduwhg dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri 4<;8/ vlqfh wkh groodu kdg lwv shdn lq Iheuxdu| 4<;8 dqg zdv douhdg| ghsuhfldwlqj dw wkh wlph ri wkh Sod}d Djuhhphqw1 Lq idfw/ odujh vdohv ri grooduv zhuh rshudwhg e| vrph Hxurshdq Fhqwudo Edqnv +hvshfldoo| wkh Exqghvedqn, lq Iheuxdu| dqg Pdufk ri wkdw |hdu +vhh Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho/ 4<<6d,1 8 Wkh djuhhphqw lv fohduo| hperglhg lq wkh iroorzlqj txrwdwlrq iurp wkh r!fldo suhvv uhohdvh ri wkh Orxyuh Dffrug= cWkh Plqlvwhuv dqg Jryhuqruv djuhhg wkdw wkh vxevwdqwldo h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq vlqfh wkh Sod}d Djuhhphqw zloo lqfuhdvlqjo| frqwulexwh wr uhgxflqj h{whu0 qdo lpedodqfhv dqg kdyh qrz eurxjkw wkhlu fxuuhqflhv zlwklq udqjhv eurdgo| frqvlvwhqw zlwk xqghuo|lqj hfrqrplf ixqgdphqwdov 1111 Ixuwkhu vxevwdqwldo h{fkdqjh udwh vkliwv dprqj wkhlu fxuuhqflhv frxog gdpdjh jurzwk dqg dgmxvwphqw survshfwv lq wkhlu frxqwulhv*1 9 Iroorzlqj wkh HUP fulvlv ri 4<<50<6 dqg d qxpehu ri rwkhu fxuuhqf| fulvhv gxulqj wkh 4<<3v/ wkhuh kdyh ehhq fdoov iurp ydulrxv txduwhuv iru phdvxuhv wr eh sxw lq sodfh wr vdihjxdug djdlqvw vshfxodwlyh dwwdfnv zkhq wkh| duh dssduhqwo| xquhodwhg wr wkh xqghuo|lqj hfrqrplf ixqgdphqwdov1 Lq 4<<7/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkh Euhwwrq Zrrgv Frpplvvlrq/ khdghg e| iruphu Fkdlupdq ri wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Sdxo Yrofnhu/ uhfrpphqghg wkdw wkh Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| Ixqg vhw xs dq lqwhuyhqwlrq ixqg wr khos frxqwulhv vwdyh r dwwdfnv rq wkhlu fxuuhqflhv +vhh hj1/ Wkh Hfrqrplvw/ 4<<8,1 Lq d uhodwhg olwhudwxuh/ hfrqrplvwv kdyh ghedwhg wkh ghvludelolw| dqg ihdvlelow| ri lpsrvlqj fdslwdo frqwurov ru wd{hv rq iruhljq h{fkdqjh wudqvdfwlrqv dv d phdqv ri cwkurzlqj vdqg lq wkh zkhhov ri qdqfh* +Wrelq/ 4<9<> Hlfkhqjuhhq dqg Z|sorv}/ 4<<6> Hlfkhqjuhhq/ Wrelq dqg Z|sorv}/ 4<<8> Jduehu dqg Wd|oru/ 4<<8,1 : Fdoov iru frqfhuwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq dsshduhg wr uhdfk d shdn dw wkh Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| Ixqg +LPI, dqg Zruog Edqn dqqxdo phhwlqjv lq Sudjxh lq Vhswhpehu 5333/ zkhq/ dw d suhvv frqihuhqfh rq Vhswhpehu 4< 5333/ wkh LPI*v Hfrqrplf Frxqvhooru dqg Gluhfwru ri wkh Uhvhdufk Ghswduwphqw/ Plfkdho Pxvvd/ dvnhg wkh phprudeoh txhvwlrq/ Li qrw qrz/ zkhqB Wkh J: lqwhuyhqwlrq dfwxdoo| rffxuuhg d ihz gd|v odwhu/ rq Vhswhpehu 551

dxglhqfh ri hfrqrplvwv dqg srolf| pdnhuv= lv r!fldo h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq hhfwlyh dqg/ li vr/ krz grhv lw zrunB;

Wkh Phfkdqlfv ri Lqwhuyhqwlrq= Qrqvwhulol}hg Yhuvxv Vwhulol}hg Rshudwlrqv

R!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv vdlg wr eh vwhulol}hg zkhq wkh dxwkrulwlhv 0 vlpxowdqhrxvo| ru zlwk d yhu| vkruw odj 0 wdnh dfwlrq wr rvhw ru vwhulol}h wkh hhfwv ri d fkdqjh lq r!fldo iruhljq dvvhw kroglqjv rq wkh grphvwlf prqhwdu| edvh1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ qrqvwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq rffxuv zkhq wkh dxwkrulwlhv ex| ru vhoo iruhljq h{fkdqjh/ qrupdoo| djdlqvw wkhlu rzq fxuuhqf| zlwkrxw vxfk rvhwwlqj dfwlrqv1 Fohduo|/ qrqvwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq zloo dhfw gluhfwo| wkh grphvwlf prqh| vxsso| dqg wkhuhiruh lwv hhfw rq wkh h{fkdqjh udwh lv frqwhqwlrxv rqo| lqvridu dv wkh hhfwv ri fkdqjhv lq wkh prqh| vxsso| rq wkh h{fkdqjh udwh duh frqwhqwlrxv 0 d ghedwh zklfk shukdsv ehorqjv pruh wr wkh duhd ri h{fkdqjh udwh ghwhuplqdwlrq +hj1 vhh Wd|oru/ 4<<8,1 Lq jhqhudo/ d vwurqj frqvhqvxv h{lvwv lq wkh surihvvlrq wkdw qrqvwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq fdq lq xhqfh wkh h{fkdqjh udwh vlploduo| wr prqhwdu| srolf| e| lqgxflqj fkdqjhv lq wkh vwrfn ri wkh prqhwdu| edvh zklfk/ lq wxuq/ lqgxfhv fkdqjhv lq eurdghu prqhwdu| djjuhjdwhv/ lqwhuhvw udwhv/ pdunhw h{shfwdwlrqv dqg xowlpdwho| wkh h{fkdqjh udwh1 Wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq lv yhu| frqwuryhuvldo/ krzhyhu/ dqg/ dffruglqjo|/ wkh fruh ri wkh ghedwh rq wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw odujho| uhodwhv wr vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq1< Frqvlghu Wdeoh 4/ zklfk jlyhv d vw|ol}hg uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri wkh edodqfh vkhhw ri d frxqwu|*v prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv +wkdw lv/ wkh fhqwudo edqn dqg h{fkdqjh0 vwdelol}dwlrq dxwkrulwlhv frpelqhg,=
; Zkloh wkhuh duh vrph rwkhu h{fhoohqw h{lvwlqj vxuyh|v rq lvvxhv uhodwhg wr r!fldo lq0 whuyhqwlrq/ wkh| duh doo lq errn irup dqg qrz uhtxluh xsgdwlqj 0 vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/ Nhqhq +4<;;,/ Wd|oru +4<<5,/ Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6d,/ Hglvrq +4<<6,/ Sloehdp +4<<4,/ dqg Dophnlqghuv +4<<8,1 Ehfdxvh ri vsdfh frqvwudlqwv/ zh odujho| frqqh rxuvhoyhv wr fryhulqj wkh olwhudwxuh zklfk kdv ehhq sxeolvkhg gxulqj wkh odvw wzhqw|0yh |hduv ru vr vlqfh wkh euhdn0 grzq ri wkh Euhwwrq Zrrgv v|vwhp/ exw ghyrwh sduwlfxodu dwwhqwlrq wr vwxglhv sxeolvkhg lq odvw ghfdgh ru vr1 Lpsruwdqw hduolhu frqwulexwlrqv zrxog lqfoxgh Nh|qhv +4<56, dqg Nhqhq +4<93/ 4<98,1 Vhh dovr wkh sdshuv lq Fdq}rqhul/ Hwklhu dqgJulool +4<<9,/ zklfk fryhu d qxpehu ri lvvxhv uhodwhg wr cWkh Qhz Wudqvodqwlf Hfrqrp|*/ udqjlqj iurp wudqvdwodqwlf srolf| frruglqdwlrq zlwk vwlfn| oderu pdunhwv wr frruglqdwhg h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq iroorzlqj wkh Sod}d dqg Orxyuh djuhhphqwv lq frpsdulvrq zlwk wkh h{shulhqfh ri wkh Hxurshdq Prqhwdu| V|vwhp sulru wr wkh 4<<5 fulvlv/ lqwhu dold 1 Iru d wuhdwphqw ri h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg uhodwhg lvvxhv lq wkh Sdflf Edvlq/ vhh dovr Jolfn +4<<;,> iru d eurdghu wuhdwphqw ri wkh lvvxhv uhodwhg wr fhqwudo edqnv* ehkdylru dqg hfrqrplf shuirupdqfh/ vhh Hlm!qjhu +4<<:,1 < Iru dq hduo| hohjdqw ghvfulswlrq ri wkh phfkdqlfv ri h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq/ vhh Dgdpv dqg Khqghuvrq +4<;6,1

Wdeoh 4= Prqhwdu| Dxwkrulwlhv* Vw|ol}hg Edodqfh Vkhhw Dvvhwv Oldelolwlhv Qhw iruhljq dvvhwv +QID, Prqhwdu| edvh +P, Jrog Wrwdo fxuuhqf| lq flufxodwlrq Iruhljq fxuuhqf| Uhvhuyh oldelolwlhv wr frpphufldo edqnv Qhw grphvwlf dvvhwv +QGD, Jryhuqphqw vhfxulwlhv Ordqv rq frpphufldo edqnv Rwkhu Qhw zruwk +QZ, Vshqglqj vxusoxvhv Qhw lqwhuhvwv dqg fdslwdo jdlqv iurp dvvhwv

Wkh prqhwdu| edvh frpsulvhv fxuuhqf| dqg ghsrvlw oldelolwlhv wr edqnv1 Qhw zruwk ri wkh qdqfldo dxwkrulwlhv lqfoxghv dffuxhg vshqglqj vxusoxvhv/ dffxpx0 odwhg qhw lqwhuhvw uhfhlswv dqg fdslwdo jdlqv rq wkhlu kroglqjv ri qhw grphvwlf dqg iruhljq dvvhwv1 Iurp Wdeoh 4/ lw iroorzv wkdw= P  QI D . +Q GD Q Z ,  QI D . GF +4,

zkhuh GF/ ghqhg dv qhw grphvwlf dvvhwv ohvv qhw zruwk +GF  QGD Q Z ,/ uhsuhvhqwv wkh vwrfn ri grphvwlf fuhglw pdgh dydlodeoh e| wkh prqhwdu| dxwkru0 lwlhv1 Iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw lqwhuyhqwlrq e| wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv lqyroyhv d sxufkdvh ru vdoh ri iruhljq dvvhwv1 Zkhq r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv qrqvwhulol}hg/ wkh sxufkdvh +vdoh, ri iruhljq fxuuhqf| e| wkh dxwkrulwlhv ohdgv wr dq lqfuhdvh +ghfuhdvh, lq Q I D dqg dq htxlydohqw lqfuhdvh +ghfuhdvh, lq P 1 Wkhuhiruh/ qrqvwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq kdv wkh vdph lpsdfw rq prqhwdu| oldelolwlhv dv dq rshq pdunhw rshudwlrq/ dqg wkh rqo| glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr lv wkdw e| d qrqvwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrq wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv dowhu P wkurxjk d fkdqjh lq iruhljq dvvhw kroglqjv udwkhu wkdq wkurxjk d fkdqjh lq grphvwlf dvvhw kroglqjv1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ li lqwhuyhqwlrq lv ixoo| vwhulol}hg wkhq grphvwlf fuhglw lv dowhuhg vr wkdw GF @ zklfk lpsolhv P@ QID . GF @ 3 +6, QID +5,

zkhuh ghqrwhv wkh fkdqjh lq wkh uhohydqw vwrfn1 Qrupdoo|/ lqwhuyhqwlrq zrxog eh vwhulol}hg e| vdohv ru sxufkdvhv ri grphvwlf0fxuuhqf| eloov ru erqgv e| wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv vr wkdw wkh hhfwv rq wkh prqhwdu| edvh ri fkdqjhv lq wkh kroglqjv ri qhw iruhljq dvvhwv duh lq idfw rvhw rqh0iru0rqh e| wkh hhfwv ri fkdqjhv lq qhw grphvwlf dvvhw kroglqjv= 8

QGD @

Q I D=

+7,

Zh qrz wxuq wr dqdo|}lqj wkh wzr fkdqqhov ri lq xhqfh ri r!fldo h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg h{sodlq krz/ lq wkhru|/ wkhvh fkdqqhov zrun1 Lq Vhfwlrq 7 zh zloo hydoxdwh wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh wr gdwh dv wr zkhwkhu wkh| zrun lq sudfwlfh1

Krz Grhv Lqwhuyhqwlrq Zrun lq Wkhru|B

D vwdqgdug dqg xvhixo wd{rqrp| iru dqdo|}lqj krz vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq pd| dhfw wkh h{fkdqjh udwh lv e| uhihuhqfh wr wzr fkdqqhov ri lq xhqfh ri vxfk lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv= wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho dqg wkh h{shfwdwlrqv ru vljqdoolqj fkdqqho +vhh Pxvvd/ 4<;4,1

614

Wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho= Wkhru|

Wkh hhfwv ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho fdq eh dqdo|}hg zlwklq wkh iudphzrun ri d sruwirolr edodqfh prgho +SEP, ri h{fkdqjh udwh ghwhuplqdwlrq lq zklfk lqyhvwruv edodqfh wkhlu sruwirolr dprqj wkh dvvhwv ri ydulrxv frxqwulhv rq wkh edvlv ri wkhlu uhodwlyh h{shfwhg uhwxuqv143 Lq wkh SEP/ wkh dvvxpswlrqv zklfk xqghuolh erwk wkh h{leoh sulfh dqg wkh vwlfn| sulfh prqhwdu| prgho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh/ lh1 wkdw grphvwlf dqg iruhljq dvvhwv duh shuihfw vxevwlwxwhv dqg wkdw wkh zhdowk hhfwv ri d fxuuhqw dffrxqw lpedodqfh duh qhjoljleoh/ duh uhod{hg1 Wkh SEP pd| eh vhhq dv d g|qdplf prgho ri h{fkdqjh udwh ghwhuplqdwlrq edvhg rq wkh lqwhudfwlrq ri lqwhuqdwlrqdo dvvhw pdunhwv/ fxuuhqw dffrxqw lpedodqfh +uh hfwlqj qhw iruhljq dvvhw dffxpx0 odwlrq ru ghfxpxodwlrq, dqg wkh h{fkdqjh udwh +vhh hj1 Eudqvrq/ 4<;6/ 4<;7> Grroh| dqg Lvdug/ 4<;6> Wd|oru/ 4<<8,1 Diwhu wkh dxwkrulwlhv kdyh lqwhuyhqhg lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw dqg wkhq vwhulol}hg wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq wkhuh fdq/ e| ghqlwlrq/ eh olwwoh ru qr hhfw rq grphvwlf lqwhuhvw udwhv vlqfh wkh ohyho ri wkh prqh| vxsso| kdv uhpdlqhg frqvwdqw1 Zkdw kdv dowhuhg/ krzhyhu/ lv wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri djhqwv* sruwirolrv/ vlqfh wkh dxwkrulwlhv zloo kdyh erxjkw ru vrog grphvwlf dvvhwv lq wkhlu vwhulol}dwlrq rshudwlrqv1 Wkh vsrw h{fkdqjh udwh pxvw wkhuhiruh vkliw lq rughu wr dhfw wkh grphvwlf ydoxh ri iruhljq erqgv dqg wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq iru kroglqj wkhp1 Wklv rffxuv dv djhqwv wu| wr uhedodqfh wkhlu sruwirolrv e| ex|lqj ru vhoolqj iruhljq dvvhwv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh vxsso| ri hxur0ghqrplqdwhg dvvhwv lq wkh kdqgv ri wkh sxeolf uhodwlyh wr wkh vxsso| ri groodu0ghqrplqdwhg dvvhwv qhfhvvlwdwhv d idoo lq wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri hxur0ghqrplqdwhg dvvhwv1 Wklv lv krz/ lq wkhru|/ lqwhuyhqwlrq dhfwv wkh h{fkdqjh udwh wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho1
43 Iru vsdfh frqvwudlqwv/ zh gr qrw rxwolqh dqdo|wlfdoo| wkh SEP khuh1 Iru d irupdo glvfxv0 vlrq ri wkh SEP/ vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/ Nhqhq +4<;5,/ Eudqvrq dqg Khqghuvrq +4<;8,/ dqg Wd|oru +4<<8,1

Li grphvwlf dqg iruhljq dvvhwv duh uhjdughg e| djhqwv dv shuihfw vxevwlwxwhv/ krzhyhu/ vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq pd| kdyh qr vljqlfdqw hhfw rq wkh h{fkdqjh udwh wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho1 Wklv iroorzv ehfdxvh djhqwv zloo eh lqglhuhqw dv wr wkh uhodwlyh dprxqwv ri grphvwlf dqg iruhljq dvvhwv wkh| duh kroglqj 0 wkh| zloo fduh rqo| derxw wkh wrwdo dprxqw dqg khqfh qr fkdqjh lq pdunhw0fohdulqj sulfhv ru txdqwlwlhv lv uhtxluhg1 Vxssrvh/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkdw wkh dxwkrulwlhv sxufkdvh iruhljq h{fkdqjh dqg fduu| rxw dq rshq pdunhw vdoh ri grphvwlf erqgv lq rughu wr vwhulol}h wkh hhfw ri d ulvh lq r!fldo uhvhuyhv rq wkh prqh| vxsso|1 Li grphvwlf dqg iruhljq erqgv duh shuihfw vxevwlwxwhv lq sulydwh djhqwv* sruwirolrv dqg djhqwv* sruwirolrv zhuh lqlwldoo| lq vwrfn htxloleulxp/ wkhq lqyhvwruv zloo vhoo iruhljq erqgv rqh iru rqh zlwk wkh lqfuhdvh lq grphvwlf erqgv1 Wkxv/ wkh sulydwh vhfwru zloo vhoo wkh vdph dprxqw ri iruhljq fxuuhqf| wkdw wkh dxwkrulwlhv erxjkw/ dqg wkhuh zloo eh d }hur qhw hhfw rq wkh ohyho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh1 Lq d zruog ri kljk0vshhg fdslwdo rzv rqh pljkw vxvshfw wkdw qdqfldo dvvhwv ghqrplqdwhg lq wkh fxuuhqflhv ri wkh pdmru lqgxvwuldol}hg frxqwulhv pd| lqghhg eh kljko| vxevwlwxwdeoh lq grphvwlf sruwirolrv/ dqg 0 dv zh vkdoo vhh ehorz 0 wklv lvvxh kdv ehhq dgguhvvhg e| uhvhdufkhuv1 Dw d wkhruhwlfdo ohyho/ lw vkrxog dovr eh qrwhg wkdw lq d Ulfdugldq zruog/ zkhuh sulydwh djhqwv rvhw h{shfwhg ixwxuh wd{ sd|phqwv +zklfk zloo eh uh0 txluhg wr vhuylfh h{wud jryhuqphqw ghew, djdlqvw fxuuhqf| kroglqjv ri grphvwlf erqgv +Eduur/ 4<:7,/ lpshuihfw vxevwlwxwdelolw| zrxog qr orqjhu eh d vx!flhqw frqglwlrq iru vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq wr lq xhqfh wkh fxuuhqw h{fkdqjh udwh1 Li Ulfdugldq htxlydohqfh grhv qrw krog/ krzhyhu/ dqg grphvwlf dqg iruhljq erqgv duh ohvv wkdq shuihfwo| vxevwlwxwdeoh/ r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq zloo lq wkhru| kdyh d qhw hhfw rq wkh ohyho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdq0 qho144

615

Wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho= Wkhru|

Hyhq li shuihfw vxevwlwxwdelolw| ri grphvwlf dqg iruhljq dvvhwv krogv/ vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq fdq vwloo lq wkhru| eh hhfwlyh wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj ru h{shfwdwlrqv fkdqqho +Pxvvd/ 4<;4,1 Wkh edvlf lghd khuh lv wkdw djhqwv pd| ylhz h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq dv d vljqdo derxw wkh ixwxuh vwdqfh ri srolf|1 Ehfdxvh wkh h{fkdqjh udwh lv d iruzdug0orrnlqj yduldeoh/ d vkliw lq h{shfwdwlrqv frqfhuqlqj ixwxuh pryhphqwv lq yduldeohv dhfwlqj wkh h{fkdqjh udwh 0 vxfk dv uhodwlyh prqh| vxssolhv 0 zloo dhfw wkh ohyho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh qrz1 Lq hvvhqfh/ wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho dvvxphv wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq dhfwv h{fkdqjh udwhv e| surylglqj wkh pdunhw zlwk qhz uhohydqw lqirupdwlrq/ xqghu wkh lp0 solflw dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh dxwkrulwlhv kdyh vxshulru lqirupdwlrq wr rwkhu pdunhw sduwlflsdqwv dqg wkdw wkh| duh zloolqj wr uhyhdo wklv lqirupdwlrq wkurxjk wkhlu dfwlrqv lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw1 Pruh suhflvho|/ wkh hhfw ri vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho rffxuv ehfdxvh sulydwh djhqwv fkdqjh wkhlu h{fkdqjh udwh h{shfwdwlrqv hlwkhu ehfdxvh wkh| fkdqjh wkhlu ylhz zlwk uh0
44 Vhh

dovr Iudqnho +4<:<,/ Revwihog +4<;5,/ Edfnxv dqg Nhkrh +4<;<,1

jdug wr wkh olnho| ixwxuh dfwlrqv ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv ru ehfdxvh wkh| fkdqjh wkhlu ylhz zlwk uhjdug wr wkh lpsdfw ri fhuwdlq dfwlrqv ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv1 Qrwlfh wkdw/ vlqfh xqvxffhvvixo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv frvwo|/ li r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv h{shfwhg wr eh hhfwlyh wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho/ wkhuh lv dq lqfhqwlyh iru wkh dxwkrulwlhv wr pdqlihvw fohduo| wkhlu srolf| lqwhqwlrqv1 Lq wklv vhqvh/ lw lv shukdsv vrphwklqj ri d p|vwhu| dv wr zk| prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv riwhq pdlqwdlq vhfuhf| ri lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv1 Dv Nhqhq +4<;;/ s1 85, sxwv lw= cWkh uxohv iru h{fkdqjh udwh pdqdjhphqw vkrxog eh dv wudqvsduhqw dv srvvleoh1 Wkdw lv wr pdlqwdlq fuhglelolw|/ qrw e| vwxglhg dpeljxlw|/ zklfk euhhgv glvdjuhhphqw dqg glvwuxvw*1 Dw dq| wlph/ krzhyhu/ d jryhuqphqw zloo eh sxuvxlqj pdq| pdfurhfrqrplf srolf| jrdov dqg wkh wudgh0rv dprqjvw wkhvh zloo eh kljko| frpsoh{/ khqfh frpsolfdwlqj vljqlfdqwo| wkh mxgjhphqw ri rwkhu pdunhw djhqwv derxw wkh wlph frqvlvwhqf| ri d fhuwdlq dqqrxqfhg h{fkdqjh udwh srolf|1 Vrph lq xhqwldo wkhruhwlfdo olwhudwxuh kdv dqdo|}hg wkhvh lvvxhv lq wkh frq0 wh{w ri d iudphzrun lq zklfk pdunhw djhqwv kdyh lqfrpsohwh lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh dxwkrulwlhv* xwlolw| wudgh0r ehwzhhq wkh h{fkdqjh udwh wdujhw dqg d grphv0 wlf srolf| wdujhw1 Zlwklq wklv iudphzrun/ iru d srolf| wr eh wlph frqvlvwhqw/ wkh dxwkrulwlhv pxvw dqqrxqfh d udqjh iru wkh ixwxuh h{fkdqjh udwh vlqfh wkh dqqrxqfhphqw ri dq| suhflvh wdujhw pd| qrw eh fuhgleoh1 Pruh jhqhudoo|/ wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv ri pdq| pdmru lqgxvwuldol}hg frxqwulhv whqg wr dgrsw h{0 fkdqjh udwh srolflhv zklfk duh frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh ixooophqw ri suhdqqrxqfhg wdujhwv ri wkh jurzwk udwh ri prqhwdu| djjuhjdwhv +vhh Vwhlq/ 4<;<,1 Wkh wudgh0r ehwzhhq wkh dwwdlqphqw ri d wdujhw ohyho ri prqh| vwrfn +pW , w dqg d wdujhw ohyho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh +vW , pd| eh irupdol}hg lq d vlpsoh w idvklrq xvlqj d txdgudwlf orvv ixqfwlrq iru wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv ri wkh irup= 'w @ +pw pW ,5 . $+vw w vW ,5 > w +8,

zkhuh 'w / pw dqg vw ghqrwh wkh orvv wr wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv/ wkh grphvwlf prqhwdu| edvh dqg wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh +grphvwlf sulfh ri iruhljq fxu0 uhqf|, dw wlph w uhvshfwlyho|/ zkloh $  3 lv wkh uhodwlyh zhljkw dwwdfkhg wr wkh prqhwdu| dqg h{fkdqjh udwh wdujhwv e| wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv1 Li wkh dx0 wkrulwlhv rqo| fduh derxw wkh dwwdlqphqw ri wkh suhdqqrxqfhg prqhwdu| wdujhw 0 vd| lq rughu wr exlog wkhlu uhsxwdwlrq dqg khqfh ehqhw e| uhodwlyho| orzhu lq d0 wlrq h{shfwdwlrqv dqg zdjhv fodlpv iurp wudgh xqlrqv 0 wkhq $ @ 3 lq htxdwlrq +8,1 Li $ @ 3 dqg qr r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq srolf| lv xqghuwdnhq e| wkh prq0 hwdu| dxwkrulwlhv/ krzhyhu/ wkh h{fkdqjh udwh kdv wr ehdu hqwluho| wkh exughq ri dgmxvwphqw= dq| h{shfwhg dssuhfldwlrq ri wkh grphvwlf fxuuhqf| zloo lqgxfh vshfxodwruv wr ex| wkh fxuuhqf|/ khqfh jhqhudwlqj wkh dfwxdo dssuhfldwlrq ri wkh fxuuhqf| lwvhoi1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv pd| xvh vwhulol}hg lq0 whuyhqwlrq zklfk fdq hhfwlyho| lqgxfh wkh lqghshqghqfh ri h{fkdqjh udwhv dqg prqhwdu| wdujhwv + QGD @ QI D,/ xowlpdwho| jhqhudwlqj rqo| d fkdqjh lq wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh sulydwh vhfwru*v sruwirolr +vhh Dophnlqghuv/ 4<<8/ dqg wkh uhihuhqfhv wkhuhlq,1 Qrwh/ krzhyhu/ wkdw wklv lqghshqghqfh lv frqwlqjhqw ;

xsrq dghtxdwh iruhljq h{fkdqjh uhvhuyhv ehlqj dydlodeoh 0 dq lvvxh eurxjkw lqwr vwdun uholhi e| wkh olwhudwxuh rq vshfxodwlyh dwwdfnv/ dv glvfxvvhg ehorz1 Wkh wkhru| ri wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq kdv dwwudfwhg uhqhzhg lqwhuhvw lq uhfhqw |hduv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ vrph uhvhdufkhuv kdyh xvhg vlp0 soh wzr0frxqwu| prghov wr h{dplqh wkh wkhruhwlfdo lpsolfdwlrq ri wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho ri iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw lqwhuyhqwlrqv wkdw vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrqv uhsuhvhqw vljqdov ri ixwxuh prqhwdu| srolf| dqg khqfh dhfw h{fkdqjh udwh h{shf0 wdwlrqv1 Zlwklq d jdph0wkhruhwlf iudphzrun zklfk doorzv iru sduwldo fuhglelolw| dqg qrq0udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv/ erwk qrqfrrshudwlyh dqg frrshudwlyh srolflhv ri h{fkdqjh udwh pdqdjhphqw fdq eh vwxglhg irupdoo|1 Wkhvh prghov suhglfw wkdw/ lq rughu wr pdlqwdlq fuhglelolw| lq wkh ixwxuh/ vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrqv pxvw eh dffrpprgdwhg e| fruuhvsrqglqj vxevhtxhqw fkdqjhv lq wkh prqh| vxsso|/ lp0 so|lqj wkdw r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq grhv qrw uhsuhvhqw dq lqvwuxphqw lqghshqghqw ri prqhwdu| srolf|1 Wklv iudphzrun dovr lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh lpsolhg wudgh0r eh0 wzhhq lqwhuqdo dqg h{whuqdo srolf| remhfwlyhv pdnhv wkh frruglqdwlrq ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv dgydqwdjhrxv/ hyhq lq wkh fdvh ri frq lfwlqj h{fkdqjh udwh wdujhwv +vhh Uhhyhv/ 4<<:/ 4<<;,1

616

Lqwhuqdwlrqdo frruglqdwlrq dqg wkh fkdqqhov ri lq x0 hqfh

Frruglqdwhg +ru frqfhuwhg, r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw rffxuv zkhq wzr ru pruh fhqwudo edqnv lqwhuyhqh vlpxowdqhrxvo| lq wkh pdunhw lq vxssruw ri wkh vdph fxuuhqf|/ dffruglqj wr dq h{solflw ru lpsolflw lqwhuqdwlrqdo djuhhphqw ri frrshudwlrq145 Wkh udwlrqdoh iru lqwhuqdwlrqdo frruglqdwlrq ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq vwhpv iurp wkh revhuyhg h{lvwhqfh ri vljqlfdqw vslooryhu hhfwv ri grphvwlf srolflhv dfurvv frxqwulhv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ xqghu d rdwlqj h{fkdqjh udwh v|vwhp/ r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lq rqh frxqwu| pd| eh h{shfwhg wr fkdqjh wkh ydoxh ri wkh grphvwlf fxuuhqf| zlwk uhvshfw wr rwkhu fxuuhqflhv/ wkhuhe| dhfwlqj wudglqj sduwqhuv* hfrqrplhv1 Vwdqgdug hfrqrplf wkhru| vxjjhvwv wkdw/ lq dq lqwhughshqghqw zruog hfrqrp|/ d Sduhwr0rswlpdo rxwfrph pd| eh dfklhyhg e| wdnlqj lqwr dffrxqw wkh vslooryhu hhfwv ri pdfurhfrqrplf srolflhv dqg e| iruplqj srolflhv zklfk h{sorlw wkh h{lvwhqfh ri wkhvh furvv0frxqwu| lqwhughshqghqflhv iru wkh pxwxdo ehqhw ri wkh sduwlflsdqwv ri wkh frruglqdwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq +Eu|dqw/ 4<<8,146
45 Vrph uhvhdufkhuv xvh d pruh uhvwulfwlyh ghqlwlrq ri frqfhuwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq zklfk grhv qrw lqfoxgh rshudwlrqv zklfk zrxog kdyh ehhq xqghuwdnhq e| wkh lqylgxdo fhqwudo edqnv hyhq lq wkh devhqfh ri dq| frruglqdwlrq +hj1 Urjr/ 4<;7/ 4<;8,1 Lq sudfwlfh/ krzhyhu/ frqfhuwhg r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw dprqj wkh pdmru lqgxvwuldol}hg qdwlrqv kdv odujho| frqvlvwhg ri lqirupdwlrq vkdulqj dqg glvfxvvlrqv zlwk vpdoo prglfdwlrqv ri wkh lqglylgxdo lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv1 46 Wkh wkhruhwlfdo olwhudwxuh lqyhvwljdwlqj wkh lpsolfdwlrqv ri srolf| frruglqdwlrq dprqj lqwhughshqghqw hfrqrplhv w|slfdoo| dgrswv d jdph0wkhruhwlf dssurdfk zklfk lv frpprqo| uhihuuhg wr dv srolf|0rswlpl}dwlrq dqdo|vlv1 Lq d w|slfdo jdph wkh udwlrqdo djhqwv duh qdwlrqdo jryhuqphqwv/ zkrvh suhihuhqfhv duh irupdol}hg xvlqj d orvv ixqfwlrq eldvhg wrzdugv grphvwlf zhoiduh1 Frrshudwlyh dqg qrqfrrshudwlyh jdphv fdq wkhq eh dqdo|}hg dqg wkh rxwfrphv iurp wkh wzr w|shv ri jdphv fdq eh frpsduhg lq rughu wr lqihu wkh rswlpdo vwudwhj|

<

Zlwk uhjdug wr qrqvwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq/ wkh ehqhwv iurp frruglqdwlrq ri qrqvwhulol}hg rshudwlrqv duh lghqwlfdo wr wkh ehqhwv iurp prqhwdu| srolf| fr0 ruglqdwlrq1 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ wkh dgydqwdjh ri frruglqdwlrq ri qrqvwhulol}hg r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq uhodwlyh wr prqhwdu| srolf| frruglqdwlrq lv wkdw wkh iruphu/ xqolnh wkh odwwhu/ fuhdwhv dq h{solflw lqfhqwlyh wr frruglqdwh prqhwdu| srolflhv frqvlv0 whqw zlwk h{fkdqjh udwh wdujhwv iru wkh frxqwulhv lqyroyhg +vhh Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho/ 4<<6d,1 Wkh dgydqwdjhv ri frruglqdwlrq iru vwhulol}hg h{fkdqjh lqwhuyhqwlrq duh ohvv vwudljkwiruzdug1 Lq idfw/ wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho lv wrwdoo| lqghshqghqw ri prqhwdu| srolf| hhfwlyh0 qhvv dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ frxqwulhv fdq ghvljq frqfhuwhg r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq zlwkrxw uholqtxlvklqj vryhuhljqw| ryhu grphvwlf prqhwdu| srolf|1 Li vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhq0 wlrq zrunv wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho/ krzhyhu/ wkhuh pd| eh jdlqv iurp frruglqdwlqj r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Wklv lv ehfdxvh wkh frruglqdwlrq ri pxowlsoh vljqdov lv pruh olnho| wr frqylqfh vshfxodwruv wkdw wkh vljqdoohg srolf| lv fuhgleoh uhodwlyh wr dq lqglylgxdo vljqdo/ lpso|lqj wkdw vwhulol}hg r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq fr0 ruglqdwlrq pd| khos fhqwudo edqnv zlwk uhodwlyho| orz uhsxwdwlrq ru fuhglelolw| +Nhqhq/ 4<;;/ fkdswhu 9> Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho/ 4<<6d> Lvdug/ 4<<8/ fkdswhu 45,1 D uhfhqw irupdo wuhdwphqw ri wkhvh lvvxhv lv surylghg e| Iodqguhdx +4<<;, lq wkh frqwh{w ri d prgho zkhuh vhyhudo wdujhw }rqhv fr0h{lvw dqg sdulwlhv duh ghihqghg e| pdqlsxodwlqj prqh| vxssolhv lq sduwlflsdwlqj frxqwulhv1 Dv d uh0 vxow/ lqwhuyhqwlrqv dlphg dw rqh jlyhq h{fkdqjh udwh dovr dhfw rwkhu h{fkdqjh udwhv/ lpso|lqj wkdw vkrfnv rq hdfk ixqgdphqwdo dhfw wkh zkroh udqjh ri h{0 fkdqjh udwhv lqyroyhg/ lqwudpdujlqdo lqwhuyhqwlrqv dulvh hqgrjhqrxvo| dqg wkh vwdwlrqdu| glvwulexwlrqv ri h{fkdqjh udwhv dqg ixqgdphqwdov duh lq xhqfhg e| wkh cuxohv ri wkh jdph* uhjduglqj fxuuhqflhv xvhg lq lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg vwhulol}d0 wlrq surfhgxuhv1 Wkh prgho xowlpdwho| suhglfwv odujh jdlqv iurp lqwhuqdwlrqdo frruglqdwlrq iru doo sduwlflsdwlqj frxqwulhv vlqfh clqwudpdujlqdo wdujhwv* duh jhq0 hudwhg wr zklfk h{fkdqjh udwhv whqg wr uhwxuq dqg wkhlu orfdwlrq lv vkrzq wr ghshqg rq wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq0vwhulol}dwlrq pl{ dgrswhg e| prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv1 Ryhudoo/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh h{lvwhqfh ri vljqlfdqw jdlqv iurp lqwhuqdwlrqdo fr0 ruglqdwlrq ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq uhodwlyh wr lqglylgxdo lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg wkh hqkdqfhphqw ri wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho dv dq hhfw ri frruglqdwlrq dsshdu wr eh dffhswhg wkhruhwlfdo uhvxowv1

617

Rswlpdo h{fkdqjh udwh pdqdjhphqw= Wkhru|

Wkh wkhruhwlfdo olwhudwxuh rq rswlpdo h{fkdqjh udwh pdqdjhphqw wr gdwh lv hqru0 prxv +hj1 vhh/ lqwhu dold/ wkh zrun ri Duwlv dqg Fxuulh/ 4<;4> Ekdqgdul/ 4<;8/ dqg wkh sdshuv wkhuhlq> Wxuqryvn|/ 4<;:> Nhqhq/ 4<;;> Jolfn dqg Kxwfklvrq/ 4<;<,1 Wkh frqyhqwlrqdo wkhruhwlfdo dqdo|vlv pdlqo| irfxvhv rq ghvljqlqj dq
iru jryhuqphqwv1 Lq fkrrvlqj wkhlu orvv0plqlpl}lqj vwudwhj|/ hdfk qdwlrqdo jryhuqphqw dovr wdnhv lqwr dffrxqw wkh suhihuhqfhv dqg wkh uhdfwlrqv ri wkh rwkhu jryhuqphqwv +hj1 Exlwhu dqg Hdwrq/ 4<;8> Frrshu/ 4<;8> Eu|dqw/ 4<<8,1 Vhh dovr wkh sdshuv lq Zlkoeruj/ Iudwldqql dqg Zloohww +4<<4,1

43

h{fkdqjh udwh srolf| zklfk plqlpl}hv wkh yduldqfh ri rxwsxw durxqg lwv qdwx0 udo udwh147 Dovr/ wkh wudglwlrqdo dssurdfk wdnhq e| wklv olwhudwxuh lv edvhg rq d rz prgho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh zklfk dffrxqwv iru wkuhh w|shv ri fxuuhqf| rzv= rzv jhqhudwhg/ uhvshfwlyho|/ e| fxuuhqw dffrxqw wudqvdfwlrqv +FD,/ qhw rz ghpdqg iru grphvwlf fxuuhqf| wkurxjk wkh fdslwdo dffrxqw ri wkh edodqfh ri sd|phqwv + N, dqg fxuuhqf| rzv jhqhudwlqj gluhfwo| iurp fhqwudo edqn lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh pdunhw +LQW , +hj1 vhh Eodfn/ 4<;8,1 Wkh pdunhw0fohdulqj frqglwlrq lqyroylqj wkrvh wkuhh fxuuhqf| rzv pd| eh zulwwhq dw wlph w dv = LQWw @ FDw . Nw +9,

zkhuh wkh ohiw0kdqg vlgh dqg wkh uljkw0kdqg vlgh ri wkh htxdwlrq ghvfuleh wkh qhw vxsso| ri dqg wkh qhw ghpdqg iru grphvwlf fxuuhqf| uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh fxuuhqw dffrxqw lv dvvxphg wr eh d ixqfwlrq ri phdvxuhv ri frpshwlwlyhqhvv vxfk dv wkh uhdo +lh1 uhodwlyh sulfh ohyho dgmxvwhg, h{fkdqjh udwh1 D ixqfwlrq iru wkh qhw rz ghpdqg iru grphvwlf fxuuhqf| wkurxjk wkh fdslwdo dffrxqw ri wkh edodqfh ri sd|phqwv pd| eh ghulyhg/ iru h{dpsoh/ xvlqj wkh iudphzrun ri vshfxodwlyh g|qdplfv prghov ghyhorshg e| Vwhlq +4<;:, dqg Gh Orqj/ Vkohlihu/ Vxpphuv dqg Zdogpdqq +4<<3,1 Dffruglqj wr wkhvh prghov/ lqyhvwruv lqyhvw pruh lq dvvhwv ghqrplqdwhg lq wkh grphvwlf fxuuhqf| wkh kljkhu wkh ghyldwlrq iurp xqfryhuhg lqwhuhvw sdulw| +htxdo wr wkh ulvn suhplxp,/ wkh orzhu wkhlu dyhuvlrq wr ulvn dqg wkh orzhu wkh frqglwlrqdo yduldqfh ri wkh qh{w shulrg vsrw udwh +vhh Dophnlqghuv/ 4<<8,1 Wkh wkhruhwlfdo olwhudwxuh lq wklv frqwh{w hvvhqwldoo| prghov r!fldo lqwhu0 yhqwlrq e| dvvxplqj d sduwlfxodu fhqwudo edqn orvv ixqfwlrq iurp zklfk/ jlyhq d sduwlfxodu surfhvv jryhuqlqj h{fkdqjh udwh pryhphqwv/ hvwlpdwdeoh fhqwudo edqn uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv fdq eh ghulyhg1 Vhyhudo dxwkruv dvvxph/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkdw wkh fhqwudo edqn kdv d vlqjoh0shulrg/ txdgudwlf/ v|pphwulf orvv ixqfwlrq ri wkh ghyldwlrq ri wkh fxuuhqw h{fkdqjh udwh iurp lwv wdujhw ohyho/ dqg wkdw wkhuh duh frvwv ri lqwhuyhqlqj lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw +hj1 vhh Dophnlqghuv/ 4<<8,148 Zkloh wklv fodvv ri prghov surylghv xvhixo lqvljkwv rq wkh vwudwhjlf ehkdylru ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv dqg doorzv uhvhdufkhuv wr ghulyh uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv zklfk fdq eh hdvlo| hvwlpdwhg/ wkh| gr vxhu/ krzhyhu/ iurp vrph gudzedfnv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkhvh prghov wuhdw wkh fhqwudo edqn rq wkh vdph whupv dv rwkhu pdunhw sduwlflsdqwv/ zkr/ wkhuhiruh/ gr qrw kdyh dq| lqirupdwlrqdo jdlq iurp
47 Wklv lpsolflwo| dvvxphv/ krzhyhu/ wkdw wkh pdlq frqfhuq ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv lv wr fkrrvh wkh rswlpdo ghjuhh ri qrq vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq lq uhvsrqvh wr lglrv|qfudwlf vkrfnv dqg wkhuhiruh/ lq vrph vhqvh/ wklv dssurdfk qhjohfwv wkh idfw wkdw wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv zlgho| xvh vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq1 48 Wkhvh frvwv pd| eh/ iru h{dpsoh/ exuhdxfudwlf frvwv lqfxuuhg gxulqj wkh ghflvlrq0 pdnlqj surfhvv iru ghvljqlqj wkh rswlpdo lqwhuyhqwlrq vwudwhj| ru qdqfldo orvvhv fdxvhg e| d sxufkdvh +vdoh, ri iruhljq fxuuhqf| zklfk lv qrw iroorzhg e| ixwxuh dssuhfldwlrq +ghsuhfldwlrq, ri wkh grphvwlf fxuuhqf|1 Zkloh lq wkh devhqfh ri lqwhuyhqwlrq frvwv wkh fhqwudo edqn frxqwhudfwv wr hyhu| vlqjoh lglrv|qfudwlf vkrfn/ lq wkh suhvhqfh ri srvlwlyh frvwv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq/ wkh ghflvlrq wr uhvsrqg wr d vkrfn zlwk vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq lv edvhg rq d frvw0ehqhw dqdo|vlv ri iruhljq h{fkdqjh lqwhuyhqwlrq +vhh Dophnlqghuv/ 4<<8,1

44

prqlwrulqj wkh dfwlrqv ri wkh fhqwudo edqn1 Lw pd| eh pruh dssursuldwh wr zlwkgudz wklv dvvxpswlrq lq ixwxuh vwxglhv1 Hyhq li/ lq jhqhudo/ wkh yroxph ri lqwhuyhqwlrq wkdw d fhqwudo edqn fdq jhqhudwh lv uhodwlyho| vpdoo lq kljko| lqwh0 judwhg iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhwv/ fhqwudo edqnv vkrxog kdyh d odujhu lqirupdwlrq vhw dw ohdvw ehfdxvh wkh| nqrz pruh derxw wkhlu rzq ixwxuh dfwlrqv uhodwlyh wr rwkhu pdunhw sduwlflsdqwv149 4: Dq lpsruwdqw pryh lq wklv gluhfwlrq lv gxh wr Ekdwwdfkdu|d dqg Zhoohu +4<<:,/ zkr exlog dq dv|pphwulf lqirupdwlrq prgho ri vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq zkhuh wkh htxloleulxp lv fkdudfwhul}hg e| d vlwxdwlrq lq zklfk wkh fhqwudo edqn kdv lqvlgh lqirupdwlrq derxw lwv h{fkdqjh udwh wdujhw zkhuhdv ulvn0dyhuvh vshf0 xodwruv kdyh lqvlgh lqirupdwlrq derxw ixwxuh vsrw udwhv1 Lq wkdw iudphzrun/ flufxpvwdqfhv pd| dulvh lq zklfk cshuyhuvh* uhvsrqvhv wr lqwhuyhqwlrq pd| rf0 fxu dqg xowlpdwho| wkh prgho surylghv d udwlrqdoh iru vhfuhf| qrw rqo| zlwk uhjdug wr wkh vfdoh exw dovr wr wkh wdujhw ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq +vhh dovr Ylwdoh/ 4<<<d,1 Jdph0wkhruhwlf dssurdfkhv kdyh dovr ehhq xqghuwdnhq e| uhvhdufkhuv1 W|sl0 fdoo|/ wkhvh prghov dqdo|}h wkh lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq wkh fhqwudo edqn dqg sulydwh udwlrqdo vshfxodwruv lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw lq wkh hyhqw ri d vkrfn re0 vhuyhg e| erwk sduwlhv1 Wkh fhqwudo edqn zlvkhv wr frxqwhuedodqfh wkh hhfw ri wkh vkrfn dqg vwdelol}h wkh h{fkdqjh udwh1 Jlyhq wkh idfw wkdw wkh vfdoh ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv qrw yhu| vljqlfdqw uhodwlyh wr wkh gdlo| wxuqryhu lq wkh pdunhw/ wkh fhqwudo edqn kdv dq lqfhqwlyh wr xvh vhfuhw lqwhuyhqwlrq lq rughu wr vxusulvh sulydwh vshfxodwruv dqg lqfuhdvh wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrq1 Udwlrqdo djhqwv zloo h{shfw/ krzhyhu/ d kljkhu yroxph ri lqwhuyhq0 wlrq dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh xowlpdwh uhvxow ri wkh jdph ehwzhhq wkh fhqwudo edqn dqg wkh sulydwh vshfxodwruv lv wkh jhqhudwlrq ri vrph vruw ri lqwhuyhqwlrq eldv1 Fohduo|/ wkh suhihuhqfhv ri wkh fhqwudo edqn dqg wkh vkdsh ri lwv orvv ixqfwlrq/ lq dgglwlrq wr wkh ghjuhh ri fhqwudo edqn lqghshqghqfh/ duh fuxfldo lq ghwhuplq0 lqj wkh qdo rxwfrph ri wkh jdph ehwzhhq wkh fhqwudo edqn dqg wkh udwlrqdo vshfxodwruv lq wkh pdunhw lq wkhvh prghov +vhh Urjr/ 4<;8> Fxnlhupdq/ 4<<5> Hlm!qjhu dqg Vfkdolqj/ 4<<6> Ghehooh/ 4<<6> dqg Dorjrvnrxv/ 4<<7,1
49 Rq wkh rqh kdqg/ li r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv wr zrun wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho/ wkhq lghdoo| hyhu| lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrq ri wkh fhqwudo edqn lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw vkrxog eh dqqrxqfhg sxeolfo| vlqfh wkh dqqrxqfhphqw lqfuhdvhv wkh fkdqfh ri wkh rshudwlrq ehlqj vxffhvvixo1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ krzhyhu/ vrph wkhruhwlfdo prghov +hj1 Fxnlhupdq dqg Phow}hu/ 4<;9> Edonh dqg Kdvdj/ 4<<5, vkrz wkdw d qhfhvvdu| frqglwlrq iru r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq wr eh hhfwlyh lv wkh pdlqwdlqdqfh ri wkh lqirupdwlrqdo dgydqwdjh1 Lq wklv vhqvh/ sxeolf dqqrxqfh0 phqwv ri ixwxuh r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq e| fhqwudo edqnv pd| khdylo| xqghuplqh wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrq1 4: D uhfhqw sdshu zklfk frq lfwv zlwk wklv suhvxpswlrq lv gxh wr Kxpsdjh +4<<:,/ zkr lqyhvwljdwhv wkh iruhfdvw ydoxh ri XV lqwhuyhqwlrqv lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw1 Wkh udwlrqdoh lv wkdw hylghqfh ri vxshulru iruhfdvwlqj vnloo zrxog lpso| wkdw wkh XV prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv dfw zlwk ehwwhu lqirupdwlrq wkdq wkh pdunhw dqg wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq frxog dowhu iruhljq h{fkdqjh wudghuv* h{shfwdwlrqv derxw h{fkdqjh udwhv1 Wkh dqdo|vlv suhvhqwhg e| Kxpsdjh +4<<:, vkrzv/ krzhyhu/ wkdw wklv zdv qrw wkh fdvh iru XV r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq gxulqj wkh shulrg 4<<30<:/ dqg r!fldo wudqvdfwlrqv e| XV prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv gr qrw vhhp wr lpsuryh wkh h!flhqf| zlwk zklfk wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw rewdlqv dqg xvhv lqirupdwlrq1

45

618

Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ vshfxodwlyh dwwdfnv dqg fxuuhqf| fulvhv

Wkhuh lv d odujh wkhruhwlfdo olwhudwxuh lq lqwhuqdwlrqdo pdfurhfrqrplfv rq vshf0 xodwlyh dwwdfnv dqg fxuuhqf| fulvhv1 Dowkrxjk wklv olwhudwxuh grhv qrw h{solflwo| dgguhvv wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq/ zh eholhyh wkdw wkhuh duh vrph vwudqgv ri lw zklfk gr |lhog lpsruwdqw lqvljkwv lqwr lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv/ dqg wkdw vrph ri wkh prghov pljkw eh xvhixoo| dgdswhg wr dqdo|}h vshflf lqwhuyhqwlrq lvvxhv1 Wkhuh duh wkuhh pdlq vwudqgv ri wklv olwhudwxuh14; Wkh uvw vwudqg 0 riwhq uhihuuhg wr dv wkh uvw0jhqhudwlrq fxuuhqf| fulvlv dssurdfk 0 vwduwv zlwk wkh vhp0 lqdo duwlfoh e| Nuxjpdq +4<:<, dqg wkh vxevhtxhqw duwlfoh e| Iorrg dqg Jduehu +4<;7,1 Wkh nh| fkdudfwhulvwlf ri uvw0jhqhudwlrq prghov lv wkdw wkh dxwkrulwlhv duh sxuvxlqj d vfdo srolf| zklfk lv lqfrqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh h{fkdqjh udwh shj1 Dv vxfk/ lqwhuyhqwlrq lv grrphg wr xowlpdwh idloxuh sulpdulo| ehfdxvh h{fkdqjh udwh srolf| lv lqfrpsdwleoh zlwk wkh xqghuo|lqj vwdqfh ri prqhwdu| dqg vfdo srolf|/ vr wkdw h{kdxvwlrq ri d qlwh vwrfn ri uhvhuyhv lv lqhylwdeoh1 Lq dggl0 wlrq/ wkh hhfwv ri vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho duh suhfoxghg e| dvvxplqj d vlpsoh xqghuo|lqj prqhwdu| prgho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh/ zklfk dvvxphv shuihfw vxevwlwxwdelolw| ehwzhhq grphvwlf dqg iruhljq dvvhwv +vr rqo| qrqvwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq lv frqvlghuhg,/ dqg wkh vljqdoolqj hhfwv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq duh uxohg rxw ehfdxvh djhqwv nqrz wkdw wkh dxwkrulwlhv* prqhwdu| srolf| lv xowlpdwho| xqvxvwdlqdeoh1 Wkh fhqwudo lqvljkw rq lqwhuyhqwlrq rshud0 wlrqv iurp wkhvh prghov/ krzhyhu/ lv wkdw wkh| pxvw eh xowlpdwho| xqvxffhvvixo li wkh| duh lqfrqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh jhqhudo vwdqfh ri pdfurhfrqrplf srolf|14< Lq vhfrqg0jhqhudwlrq prghov/ wkh hpskdvlv lv jhqhudoo| rq srolf| uxoh qrq0 olqhdulwlhv/ vxfk dv d vkliw lq grphvwlf prqhwdu| srolf| frqglwlrqdo rq zkhwkhu ru qrw wkhuh lv d vshfxodwlyh dwwdfn +Revwihog/ 4<<7/ 4<<9,1 D nh| ihdwxuh ri vhfrqg0jhqhudwlrq prghov lv dq hvfdsh fodxvh lq jryhuqphqw srolf|/ zkhuhe| wkhuh lv d {hg shqdow| ri dedqgrqlqj wkh h{fkdqjh udwh shj dqg vzlwfklqj wr d rdwlqj uhjlph1 Wkh dxwkrulwlhv wkhq lqwhuyhqh wr vxssruw wkh shj vr orqj dv wkh ydoxh ri wkhlu orvv ixqfwlrq xqghu wklv uhjlph lv ohvv wkdq wkh ydoxh ri wkh orvv zlwk d vzlwfk wr d rdw/ lqfoxglqj wkh {hg shqdow| ri lqyrnlqj wkh hvfdsh fodxvh1 Ehfdxvh wkhuh lv d vlpxowdqhlw| ehwzhhq wkh ydoxh ri wkh orvv lqyroyhg lq hdfk uhjlph dqg zkhwkhu ru qrw d vshfxodwlyh dwwdfn lv odxqfkhg/ wkh prgho dgplwv pxowlsoh htxloleuld1 Lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ lw lv srvvleoh wr vkrz wkdw e| lqfuhdvlqj wkh shqdow| ri lqyrnlqj wkh hvfdsh fodxvh dqg dedqgrqlqj wkh shj/
4; Iru pruh frpsuhkhqvlyh glvfxvvlrqv dqg vxuyh|v ri wklv olwhudwxuh/ vhh Djqru/ Ekdqgdul dqg Iorrg +4<<5,/ Mhdqqh +4<<9,/ dqg Iorrg dqg Pdulrq +4<<<,1 4< Wkh lpsolflw dvvxpswlrq ri shuihfw vxevwlwxwdelolw| ehwzhhq grphvwlf dqg iruhljq dvvhwv kdv ehhq uhod{hg lq vrph prglhg uvw0jhqhudwlrq prghov +hj1 Iorrg/ Jduehu dqg Nudphu/ 4<<9> Iorrg/ Krgulfn/ Lvdug dqg Nudphu/ 4<<9> Iorrg dqg Pdulrq/ 5333,1 Wkhvh prghov doorz d uroh iru vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq e| lqwurgxflqj d ulvn suhplxp 0 lwvhoi d ixqfwlrq ri grphvwlf dqg iruhljq erqg kroglqjv 0 lqwr wkh xqfryhuhg lqwhuhvw udwh sdulw| frqglwlrq1 Pruhryhu/ Iorrg dqg Pdulrq*v +5333, dqdo|vlv vkrzv krz lqwurgxflqj qrqolqhdulw| lqwr wkh prgho dqg uhod{lqj wkh shuihfw iruhvljkw dvvxpswlrq jhqhudwhv pxowlsoh vroxwlrqv dqg rshqv xs wkh srvvlelolw| ri vhoi0ixooolqj vshfxodwlyh dwwdfnv1 Wkhvh ihdwxuhv duh/ lq idfw/ nh| fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri vr0fdoohg vhfrqg jhqhudwlrq0vshfxodwlyh dwwdfn prghov/ vr wkdw wkh Iorrg0Pdulrq prgho pd| eh vhhq lq vrph uhvshfwv dv eulgjlqj wkh cjhqhudwlrq jds*1

46

wkh suredelolw| ri dq dwwdfn ehlqj odxqfkhg lv dfwxdoo| lqfuhdvhg/ zklfk 0 dw ohdvw sulpd idflh 0 dsshduv frxqwhu0lqwxlwlyh +vhh Iorrg dqg Pdulrq/ 4<<:d/ 4<<<,1 Rqh zd| ri pdnlqj wklv uhvxow pruh lqwxlwlyh/ dqg dw wkh vdph wlph vhhlqj wkh olqn zlwk h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq/ lv dv iroorzv1 Dowkrxjk wkh frvw ri lq0 yrnlqj wkh hvfdsh fodxvh dqg dedqgrqlqj wkh shj lv xvxdoo| lqwhusuhwhg dv wkh dxwkrulwlhv*v orvv ri fuhglelolw| ru dv d ghdgzhljkw orvv wr vrflhw|/ d pruh lpph0 gldwh lqwhusuhwdwlrq lv wr ylhz lw dv wkh wudqvihu ri zhdowk zklfk lv pdgh iurp wkh dxwkrulwlhv wr sulydwh vshfxodwruv iroorzlqj d vxffhvvixo vshfxodwlyh dwwdfn1 Wkxv/ wkh pruh surorqjhg dqg lqwhqvh wkh ghihqvh ri wkh shj 0 lh1 wkh pruh wkh dxwkrulwlhv lqwhuyhqh 0 wkh juhdwhu zloo eh wkh surw wkdw dffuxhv wr vshfx0 odwruv dqg wkh juhdwhu wkh lqfhqwlyh wkh| zloo wkhuhiruh kdyh wr dwwdfn1 Xqghu wklv lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri vhfrqg0jhqhudwlrq prghov/ wkhuhiruh/ lqwhuyhqwlrq kdv wkh shuyhuvh hhfw ri pdnlqj wkh froodsvh ri d fxuuhqf| pruh suredeoh1 Wklv lv dq lqwhuhvwlqj wkhruhwlfdo uhvxow zklfk zduudqwv hpslulfdo lqyhvwljdwlrq1 D odujh dqg jurzlqj olwhudwxuh rq d wklug jhqhudwlrq ri prghov ri fxuuhqf| dqg qdqfldo fulvhv kdv ghyhorshg uhfhqwo| lq wkh zdnh ri wkh 4<<:0<; Hdvw Dvldq qdqfldo dqg fxuuhqf| fulvlv1 Wkhvh prghov zhuh ghyhorshg sulpdulo| ehfdxvh wkh Hdvw Dvldq fulvlv dsshduhg qrw wr eh fkdudfwhul}hg e| wkh vfdo ghflwv zklfk w|slfdoo| wuljjhu d fulvlv lq uvw0jhqhudwlrq fxuuhqf| fulvlv prghov/ dqg qru glg wkhuh dsshdu wr eh dq| vwurqj whpswdwlrq iru wkh dxwkrulwlhv wr dedqgrq d {hg h{fkdqjh udwh v|vwhp lq rughu wr sxuvxh d pruh h{sdqvlrqdu| prqhwdu| srolf|/ dv rqh pljkw h{shfw lq d vhfrqg0jhqhudwlrq prgho1 Lq idfw/ wkhvh wklug0jhqhudwlrq prghov duh uhdoo| prghov ri qdqfldo vhfwru fulvlv udwkhu wkdq prghov ri vshfxodwlyh dwwdfn ru fxuuhqf| fulvlv shu vh1 Dv vxfk/ krzhyhu/ wklug0jhqhudwlrq prghov kdyh ihz lpsolfdwlrqv iru wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ru rwkhuzlvh ri lqwhuyhqwlrq srolflhv1 Wkh lpsolflw dvvxpswlrq lv wkdw d pdvvlyh fdslwdo ljkw iroorzlqj wkh froodsvh ri grphvwlf dvvhw pdunhw exeeohv zloo vzdps lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv/ ohdglqj wr d froodsvh ri wkh fxuuhqf|153 Fohduo|/ wkh wkuhh vwudqgv ri olwhudwxuh rq vshfxodwlyh dwwdfnv dqg fxuuhqf| fulvhv rhu udwkhu glhuhqw 0 doehlw uhodwhg 0 ylhzv ri wkh phfkdqlfv ri d fxuuhqf| fulvlv1 Lqwhuyhqwlrq rqo| kdv d pdmru uroh lq wkh frqwh{w ri uvw0 dqg vhfrqg0 jhqhudwlrq prghov1 Iluvw0jhqhudwlrq prghov whoo d vlpsoh/ vwdun vwru| derxw lqwhuyhqwlrq srolflhv zklfk duh lqfrqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh xqghuo|lqj vwdqfh ri prqh0 wdu| dqg vfdo srolf|/ qdpho| wkdw wkh| duh grrphg wr xowlpdwh idloxuh1 Vrph ri wkh vhfrqg0jhqhudwlrq prghov/ krzhyhu/ whoo d udwkhu pruh vrsklvwlfdwhg vwru| lq zklfk surorqjhg lqwhuyhqwlrq pd| lq fhuwdlq flufxpvwdqfhv dfwxdoo| lqfuhdvh wkh suredelolw| ri d vxffhvvixo dwwdfn rq wkh fxuuhqf|1 Lw lv shukdsv zruwk frqmhfwxu0 lqj wkdw vxfk prghov pd| vkhg vrph oljkw rq zk| prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv vr riwhq ghhp lw qhfhvvdu| ru ghvludeoh wr lqwhuyhqh lq vhfuhw/ frqwudu| wr wkh lqwxlwlrq zklfk iroorzv iurp wklqnlqj lq whupv ri d vlpsoh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho iudphzrun1 Lw pd| eh wkdw wkh dxwkrulwlhv lq wkhvh fdvhv duh dwwhpswlqj wr lq xhqfh wkh h{fkdqjh udwh wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho zlwkrxw wkh gdqjhu ri wulj0
ixuwkhu glvfxvvlrq ri wklug0jhqhudwlrq prghov/ vhh h1j1 Ekdwwdfkdu|d/ Fodhvvhqv/ Jkrvk/ Khuqdqgh} dqg Doed +4<<;,/ Hglvrq/ Oxdqjdudp dqg Ploohu +4<<;,/ Nuxjpdq +4<<;,/ Fruvhwwl/ Shvhqwl dqg Urxelql +4<<<,/ Fklqq/ Grroh| dqg Vkuhvwkd +4<<<,/ dqg Vduqr dqg Wd|oru +4<<<,1
53 Iru

47

jhulqj d vhoi0ixooolqj vshfxodwlyh dwwdfn rq wkh fxuuhqf|1 Dw suhvhqw/ krzhyhu/ wklv uhpdlqv d frqmhfwxuh ri wkh suhvhqw dxwkruv/ exw rqh zklfk zh ihho zrxog uhsd| ixuwkhu uhvhdufk1

Grhv R!fldo Lqwhuyhqwlrq Zrun lq SudfwlfhB

Vr idu/ rxu glvfxvvlrq ri wkh phfkdqlfv dqg hhfwlyhqhvv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq kdv ehhq doprvw h{foxvlyho| wkhruhwlfdo1 Zh qrz wxuq rxu dwwhqwlrq wr wkh yh{hg txhvwlrqv ri zkhwkhu dqg krz lqwhuyhqwlrq zrunv lq sudfwlfh1

714

Gdwd rq r!fldo h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg h{0 fkdqjh udwh h{shfwdwlrqv

Wkh hduo| hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh rq h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq zdv kdqglfdsshg e| wkh odfn ri gdwd rq wzr fuxfldo yduldeohv= gdwd rq lqwhuyhqwlrq lwvhoi dqg gdwd rq pdunhw sduwlflsdqwv* h{fkdqjh udwh h{shfwdwlrqv1 Dq dwwhpsw zdv riwhq pdgh wr flufxpyhqw wkh uvw odfxqd e| lqihuulqj lqwhuyhqwlrq dfwlylw| iurp pryhphqwv lq wkh dxwkrulwlhv* lqwhuqdwlrqdo uhvhuyhv/ zkloh wkh dvvxpswlrq ri udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv +riwhq zlwk wkh dx{loldu| dvvxpswlrq ri xqfryhuhg lqwhuhvw udwh sdulw|, zdv jhqhudoo| lqyrnhg wr frsh zlwk wkh vhfrqg jds lq wkh gdwd1 Prqwko| dqg txduwhuo| gdwd rq prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv* lqwhuqdwlrqdo uhvhuyhv duh jlyhq lq prvw fhqwudo edqnv* vwdwlvwlfdo sxeolfdwlrqv/ zkloh txduwhuo| gdwd duh dydlodeoh/ iru h{dpsoh/ iurp wkh Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Ilqdqfldo Vwdwlvwlfv gdwdedvh ri wkh Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| Ixqg1 Pryhphqwv lq wkhvh gdwd/ krzhyhu/ uhsuhvhqw d yhu| lqdffxudwh sur{| iru lqwhuyhqwlrq dfwlylw| vlqfh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv* lq0 whuqdwlrqdo uhvhuyhv pd| fkdqjh iru d qxpehu ri uhdvrqv glhuhqw iurp dqg riwhq qrw uhodwhg wr r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Uhvhuyhv lqfuhdvh/ iru h{dpsoh/ zlwk lqwhu0 hvw uhfhlswv rq r!fldo sruwirolr kroglqjv/ dqg xfwxdwh zlgho| zlwk ydoxdwlrq fkdqjhv rq h{lvwlqj uhvhuyhv1 Prvw whoolqjo|/ uhvhuyhv gr qrw lqfoxgh wudqv0 dfwlrqv wkdw duh lq idfw lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv/ vxfk dv wkh vr0fdoohg klgghq uhvhuyhv/ zklfk pd| eh vhhq dv fkdqjhv lq r!fldo ghsrvlwv ri iruhljq fxuuhqf| zlwk grphvwlf fxuuhqf| dqg duh uhjxoduo| xvhg e| d qxpehu ri fhqwudo edqnv 0 lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh| duh yhu| iuhtxhqwo| dgrswhg e| wkh Edqn ri Mdsdq +vhh Hglvrq/ 4<<6> Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho/ 4<<6d,154 Wkh lvvxh ri gdwd dydlodelolw| rq dfwxdo lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv lv reylrxvo| forvho| olqnhg wr wkh lvvxh ri zk| vhfuhf| 0 ru rplvvlrq ri d ghwdlohg uhsruw 0 ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv riwhq pdlqwdlqhg e| prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv/ hyhq diwhu wkh hyhqw1 Zkloh dujxphqwv pd| h{lvw lq idyru ri wkh vhfuhf| ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq/ lw lv xqfohdu zk| fhqwudo edqnv kdyh qrw ehhq lqwhuhvwhg iru d orqj wlph lq uhohdvlqj gdwd wr uhvhdufkhuv h{ srvw1
54 Lghdoo|/ d vwxg| rq r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq dwwhpswlqj wr eh lqirpdwlyh rq erwk vkruw0 dqg orqj0whup hhfwlyhqhvv ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq vkrxog xvh plqxwh0e|0plqxwh gdwd/ vlqfh wklv lv wkh wlph vfdoh rq zklfk lqwhuyhqwlrq ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw rffxuv1 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ gdlo| gdwd pd| uhsuhvhqw d vx!flhqwo| jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq1

48

D fkdqjh lq wklv sudfwlfh kdv ehhq pdgh/ krzhyhu/ e| wkh XV dxwkrulwlhv/ dqg XV gdlo| gdwd iru lqwhuyhqwlrq duh qrz dydlodeoh/ iroorzlqj wkh dxwkrul}dwlrq ri wkh XV Wuhdvxu| wr wkh Erdug ri Jryhuqruv ri wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh V|vwhp wr uhohdvh wkhp lq wkh hduo| 4<<3v1 Jhupdq| dqg Mdsdq kdyh uhfhqwo| iroorzhg wkh h{dpsoh ri wkh XV1 Wkh rwkhu J: frxqwulhv kdyh qrw iroorzhg wklv sudfwlfh |hw dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh surfhvv ri jdwkhulqj lqwhuyhqwlrq gdwd vwloo uhtxluhv wkh uhfrqvwuxfwlrq ri wkh rshudwlrqv ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv rq wkh edvlv ri uh0 sruwv ri wkh qdqfldo suhvv zklfk/ krzhyhu/ lv qrw h{shfwhg wr eh frpsuhkhqvlyh ri hyhu| vhfuhw rshudwlrq/ hvshfldoo| vpdoo rqhv zklfk pd| qrw eh lghqwlhg hyhq e| wudghuv lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw155 Lq dgglwlrq wr wkh uhfhqw dydlodelolw| ri gdwd rq r!fldo h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhu0 yhqwlrq/ vxuyh| gdwd rq h{fkdqjh udwh h{shfwdwlrqv dovr ehfdph dydlodeoh iru xwlol}dwlrq gxulqj wkh odwh 4<;3v1 Wkhvh gdwd duh yhu| xvhixo iru prghoolqj h{shfwdwlrqv phfkdqlvpv dqg whvwlqj wkh vljqdoolqj ru h{shfwdwlrqv fkdqqho1 Khqfh dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wkh 4<<3v wkh hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh rq lqwhuyhqwlrq zdv deoh wr dgguhvv wkh txhvwlrq ri zkhwkhu r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv hhfwlyh pruh vhulrxvo| wkdq wkh fruuhvsrqglqj olwhudwxuh ri wkh 4<;3v1 Wkh kdqglfdsv wkdw uhvhdufkhuv lq wkh 4<;3v zrunhg xqghu zhuh hvvhqwldoo| uhpryhg1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ dv glvfxvvhg ehorz/ d vhulhv ri vwxglhv e| Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho lq wkh hduo| 4<<3v vljqlfdqwo| udlvhg wkh vwdqgdug ri wkh dqdo|vlv e| xvlqj erwk lqwhuyhqwlrq gdwd dqg vxuyh| gdwd rq h{shfwdwlrqv1

715

Wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho= Hylghqfh

Lq rughu wr dqdo|}h wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri vwhulol}hg r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho/ ydulrxv vwxglhv kdyh irfxvhg rq wkh wudglwlrqdo irupx0 odwlrq ri wkh SEP xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh Ulfdugldq htxlydohqfh wkhruhp grhv qrw krog1 Lq wkdw iudphzrun/ lqyhvwruv doorfdwh wkhlu zhdowk dprqj gli0 ihuhqw dvvhwv lq sursruwlrqv wkdw duh dvvxphg wr eh lqfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrqv ri wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq rq hdfk dvvhw1 Dovr/ xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw lqyhvwruv duh ulvn dyhuvh dqg wkdw udwhv ri uhwxuq duh xqfhuwdlq/ lqyhvwruv pd{lpl}h h{shfwhg surwv e| glyhuvli|lqj wkhlu sruwirolrv1 Wkh SEP kdv qrw dwwudfwhg d odujh hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh uhodwlyh wr rwkhu prghov ri h{fkdqjh udwh ghwhuplqdwlrq dqg lq sduwlfxodu uhodwlyh wr prqhwdu| prghov/ pdlqo| ehfdxvh vhyhudo sureohpv duh hqfrxqwhuhg lq pdsslqj wkh wkhr0 uhwlfdo iudphzrun ri wkh SEP lqwr uhdo0zruog qdqfldo gdwd1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh fkrlfh ri qrq0prqhwdu| dvvhwv wr eh frqvlghuhg lq wkh hpslulfdo prgho lv gl!fxow dqg gdwd duh qrw dozd|v dydlodeoh rq d elodwhudo edvlv156 Lq jhqhudo/ krzhyhu/ wzr w|shv ri whvwv kdyh ehhq frqgxfwhg e| wkh uhohydqw hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh1 Wkh uvw w|sh lv edvhg rq hvwlpdwlqj d uhgxfhg irup vroxwlrq ri wkh SEP lq rughu wr phdvxuh lwv h{sodqdwru| srzhu 0 wklv dssurdfk lv riwhq fdoohg wkh gluhfw ghpdqg
55 Vhh Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6d, iru d pruh h{whqvlyh glvfxvvlrq ri wkhvh lvvxhv/ dqg Zh|pdun +4<<:d/e, iru d glvfxvvlrq ri phwkrgv ri frqvwuxfwlqj lqglfhv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq dfwlylw| rq wkh edvlv ri revhuyhg gdwd1 56 Vhh Wd|oru +4<<8, iru d glvfxvvlrq ri wkh hfrqrphwulf lvvxhv lqyroyhg lq hvwlpdwlqj wkh SEP1

49

dssurdfk1 Wkh vhfrqg w|sh ri whvw ri wkh SEP irfxvhv rq vroylqj wkh SEP iru wkh ulvn suhplxp dqg whvwlqj iru shuihfw vxevwlwxwdelolw| ri erqgv ghqrplqdwhg lq glhuhqw fxuuhqflhv 0 wklv lv wkh lqyhuwhg ghpdqg dssurdfk1 Lq whvwlqj wkh sruwirolr edodqfh prgho xvlqj wkh lqyhuwhg dvvhw ghpdqg ds0 surdfk/ uhvhdufkhuv w|slfdoo| hvwlpdwh dq htxdwlrq zkhuh wkh ulvn suhplxp +vd| , lv d ixqfwlrq ri grphvwlf dqg iruhljq erqg kroglqjv +E dqg E , +dqg/ lq pruh frpsoh{ irupxodwlrqv/ ri lqfrph dqg zhdowk,=

w @ 4 Ew . 5 Ew

+:,

zkhuh 4 dqg 5 duh sdudphwhuv dqg zkhuh/ iru vlpsolflw|/ zh kdyh dvvxphg d olqhdu vwdwlf vshflfdwlrq1 W|slfdoo|/ wkh ulvn suhplxp lv phdvxuhg e| ghyld0 wlrqv iurp xqfryhuhg lqwhuhvw sdulw|/ hlwkhu dvvxplqj udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv ru hpsor|lqj vxuyh| gdwd1 Xqghu wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv wkdw dvvhwv duh shuihfwo| vxevwlwxwdeoh dw krph dqg deurdg/ wkh frh!flhqwv rq wkh erqg kroglqjv ydul0 deoh vkrxog doo eh }hur1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ li wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho k|srwkhvlv krogv/ wkhq wkh frh!flhqwv rq erqg kroglqjv vkrxog eh vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw +vhh hj1 Wd|oru/ 4<<8,1 Lq jhqhudo/ lq wkh odwh 4<:3v dqg lq wkh 4<;3v/ wkh hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh rq whvwlqj wkh SEP vxjjhvwhg wkdw vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq lv hhfwlyh dw prvw lq wkh yhu| vkruw whup/ zkloh wkh mrlqw k|srwkhvlv ri udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv dqg shuihfw vxevwlwxwdelolw| ri grphvwlf dqg iruhljq dvvhwv zdv uhjxoduo| uhmhfwhg1 Dovr/ pxfk ri wklv olwhudwxuh vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh h{fkdqjh udwh hhfwv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho duh yhu| vpdoo lq vl}h 0 vhh Hglvrq +4<<6, iru d uhylhz ri wkh hpslulfdo vwxglhv rq whvwlqj wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho lq wkh 4<;3v1 Vrph srvw04<;3v vxssruw lq idyru ri vljqlfdqw sruwirolr edodqfh hhfwv lv surylghg e| Jkrvk +4<<5,1 Wkh dssurdfk wdnhq lqyroyhv xvlqj d iruzdug0orrnlqj prqhwdu| prgho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh lq rughu wr fdswxuh vljqdoolqj hhfwv1 Vlqfh wkh prqhwdu| prgho lpsolhv wkdw wkh h{fkdqjh udwh lv d ixqfwlrq ri h{shfwhg ixwxuh prqhwdu| ixqgdphqwdov/ wkh prqhwdu| srolf| vljqdoolqj hhfwv pxvw eh fdswxuhg1 Wklv wkhq doorzv wkh uhvhdufkhu wr whvw iru wkh hhfwv ri vwhulol}hg lq0 whuyhqwlrq wkurxjk fkdqqhov rwkhu wkdq wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho1 Xvlqj prqwko| gdwd iru wkh XV groodu0Jhupdq pdun udwh ryhu wkh shulrg 4<;30;;/ Jkrvk sur0 ylghv hylghqfh iru d zhdn/ exw vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw sruwirolr lq xhqfh rq wkh h{fkdqjh udwh1 Wkh prgho dovr shuirupv zhoo lq iruhfdvwlqj/ glvsod|lqj d yhu| kljk fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh dfwxdo dqg wwhg ydoxhv ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh dqg rxwshuiruplqj dq dowhuqdwlyh udqgrp zdon prgho lq rxw0ri0vdpsoh iruhfdvwlqj1 Lq d vhqvh/ wklv dssurdfk lv plogo| cvfkl}rskuhqlf* +Jkrvk/ 4<<5/ s1 54:,/ lq wkdw d vljqlfdqw sruwirolr edodqfh hhfw lpsolhv uhmhfwlrq ri wkh prqhwdu| prgho/ exw ydulrxv lqglfdwruv ri wkh prqhwdu| prgho*v shuirupdqfh/ vxfk dv lq0vdpsoh w dqg suhglfwlyh shuirupdqfh/ lqglfdwh wkdw cwkh prgho surylghv d uhdvrqdeoh owhu iru uhprylqj wkh lq xhqfh ri djhqwv* h{shfwdwlrqv ri ixwxuh srolflhv* +lelg1,157
57 Lqwhuhvwlqj hylghqfh rq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq h{fkdqjh udwhv/ lqwhuhvw udwhv dqg fxuuhqw dffrxqw qhzv lv dovr surylghg e| Nduidnlv dqg Nlp +4<<8,/ xvlqj Dxvwudoldq gdwd iru wkh

4:

Wkh frqyhqwlrqdo zlvgrp ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lqhhfwlyhqhvv wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho kdv ehhq vwurqjo| fkdoohqjhg e| Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6e,1 Xvlqj vxuyh| gdwd rq XV groodu0Jhupdq pdun dqg XV groodu0Vzlvv iudqf h{fkdqjh udwh h{shfwdwlrqv lq wkh plg04<;3v wr frqvwuxfw phdvxuhv ri wkh ulvn suhplxp dv wkh ghyldwlrq iurp xqfryhuhg lqwhuhvw udwh sdulw| dqg dovr wdnlqj dffrxqw ri srwhqwldo vlpxowdqhlw| eldv xvlqj dssursuldwh lqvwuxphqwdo0yduldeoh hvwlpdwlrq/ Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6e, qg wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq yduldeohv kdyh vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw h{sodqdwru| srzhu lq d uhjuhvvlrq iru wkh ulvn suhplxp1 Wkhlu vwxg| surylghv vwurqj vxssruw lq idyru ri d vljqlfdqw sruwirolr edodqfh hhfw +zlwk phdq0yduldqfh rswlpl}dwlrq, dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ hhfwlyhqhvv ri lqwhu0 yhqwlrq/ dqg hvshfldoo| frruglqdwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Wkhlu uhvxowv ohdg wkh dxwkruv wr vwdwh wkdw cXqwlo uhfhqwo|/ wkhuh zdv dq xqxvxdo ghjuhh ri frqvhqvxv dprqj hfrqrplvwv wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq e| fhqwudo edqnv lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw glg qrw rhu dq hhfwlyh ru odvwlqj lqvwuxphqw iru dhfwlqj wkh h{fkdqjh udwh1 ^111` wkh wkhruhwlfdo fdvh djdlqvw wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq lv qrw dv fohdu dv d uhdglqj ri wkh hfrqrplfv olwhudwxuh pljkw vxjjhvw* +s1 4689,1

716

Wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho= Hylghqfh

Wkh hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh lqyhvwljdwlqj wkh vljqlfdqfh ri wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho lv uhodwlyho| uhfhqw exw jurzlqj udslgo|/ hvshfldoo| gxh wr wkh uhohdvh ri gdlo| gdwd rq lqwhuyhqwlrq iurp wkh XV dxwkrulwlhv lq wkh hduo| 4<<3v1 Jlyhq wkh frpsuhkhqvlyh uhylhz ri wkh 4<;3v dqg hduolhu olwhudwxuh e| Hglvrq +4<<6,/ zh irfxv khuh 0 zlwk d vlqjoh h{fhswlrq 0 rq vwxglhv sxeolvkhg gxulqj wkh 4<<3v Wkh vlqjoh h{fhswlrq lv wkh xqsxeolvkhg grfwrudo wkhvlv ri Grplqjxh} +4<;:,1 Wklv lv dq hpslulfdo lqyhvwljdwlrq ri wkh delolw| ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv wr vljqdo prqhwdu| srolf| lqwhqwlrqv dqg dhfw pdunhw h{shfwdwlrqv ri wkh ixwxuh h{fkdqjh udwh/ h{hfxwhg xvlqj zhhno| XV gdwd iru wkh Iheuxdu| 4<::0Iheuxdu| 4<;4 shulrg1 Hvwlpdwlrq ri uhjuhvvlrqv ri wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq yduldeoh rq prqh| vxusulvhv +frqvwuxfwhg xvlqj sxeolfo| dydlodeoh suh0dqqrxqfhg prqh| vxsso| iruhfdvwv, surgxfhv uhvxowv vxjjhvwlqj wkdw prqh| vxsso| vxusulvhv duh srvlwlyho| dvvrfldwhg zlwk lqwhuyhqwlrq gxulqj shulrgv ri kljk uhsxwdwlrq dqg fuhglelolw| ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv1 Dovr/ hvwlpdwlrq ri uhjuhvvlrqv ri h{fkdqjh udwh fkdqjhv rq lqwhuyhqwlrq/ dlphg dw whvwlqj wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho k|srwkhvlv/ vxj0 jhvw wkdw lq shulrgv ri kljk uhsxwdwlrq dqg khdy| vwhulol}hg r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv duh deoh wr lq xhqfh h{fkdqjh udwh fkdqjhv/ zklfk duh
shulrg iurp Mxo| 4<;8 wr Ghfhpehu 4<<51 Wkh Dxvwudoldq groodu lv irxqg wr ghsuhfldwh ryhu wkh vdpsoh h{dplqhg/ zkloh lqwhuhvw udwhv duh irxqg wr ulvh dv d uhvxow ri dq dqqrxqfhphqw ri d odujhu wkdq h{shfwhg fxuuhqw dffrxqw ghflw1 Wkhvh uhvxowv pd| eh lqwhusuhwhg dv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh ylhz wkdw pdunhw sduwlflsdqwv h{shfwhg d iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw lqwhuyhqwlrq vdoh ri wkh Dxvwudoldq groodu e| wkh Uhvhuyh Edqn ri Dxvwudold dqg wkh| xvhg d sruwirolr edodqfh prgho zkhq uhvsrqglqj wr qhzv1

4;

irxqg wr eh srvlwlyho| uhodwhg wr lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Ryhudoo/ wklv vwxg| surylghv vrph hylghqfh vxssruwlyh ri wkh vljqdoolqj k|srwkhvlv158 Lqwhuhvwlqj hylghqfh kdv dovr ehhq surgxfhg wkurxjk wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri lq0 yhuwhg sruwirolr edodqfh htxdwlrqv zlwk wkh ulvn suhplxp dv wkh ghshqghqw ydul0 deoh/ jhqhudoo| xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq ri udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv +hj1 Grplqjxh}/ 4<<3,1 Wklv dssurdfk kdv riwhq ehhq vhhq dv surylglqj lqirupdwlrq rq wkh hhf0 wlyhqhvv ri vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho udwkhu wkdq wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho ehfdxvh wkh h{sodqdwru| yduldeoh xvhg lq wkh hvwlpdwhg uhjuhvvlrq lv w|slfdoo| dfwxdo lqwhuyhqwlrq udwkhu wkdq fxpxodwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq/ wkh pruh frpprq yduldeoh xvhg e| wkh olwhudwxuh1 Irupdoo|/ wkh hvwlpdwhg uhjuhvvlrq lv ri wkh iroorzlqj irup= w @ 3 . 4 LQ WwF 4 . 5 LQ WwQF . $w > 4 +;,

zkhuh w lv wkh ulvn suhplxp/ LQ WwF dqg LQ WwQF duh ghqhg dv frruglqdwhg dqg qrqfrruglqdwhg dfwxdo lqwhuyhqwlrq/ dqg $w lv d zklwh qrlvh huuru1 Dv d uhsuhvhqwdwlyh vwxg| ri wklv olwhudwxuh/ iru h{dpsoh/ Grplqjxh} +4<<3, surylghv uhvxowv iru yh vxeshulrgv/ xvlqj gdlo| gdwd iru wkh Mdsdqhvh |hq0XV groodu dqg wkh Jhupdq pdun0XV groodu iurp Mdqxdu| 4<;8 wr Ghfhpehu 4<;:1 Iru wkh uvw wzr vxeshulrgv/ wkh hvwlpdwlrq surgxfhv vljqlfdqw dqg fruuhfwo| vljqhg frh!flhqwv rq wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq yduldeohv/ zkloh lq wkh uhpdlqlqj vxeshulrgv wkh frh!flhqwv duh hlwkhu vljqlfdqw exw zurqjo| vljqhg ru fruuhfwo| vljqhg exw qrw vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp }hur dw frqyhqwlrqdo vljqlfdqfh ohyhov1 Lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ glhuhqw hhfwv duh irxqg iru frruglqdwhg dqg qrqfrruglqdwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq iru ydulrxv vxeshulrgv dqg/ lq jhqhudo/ wkh frh!flhqw rq frruglqdwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq lv irxqg wr eh uhodwlyho| pruh vwurqjo| vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw1 Pruh uhfhqwo|/ Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6d, hpsor| dq dowhuqdwlyh hvwl0 pdwlrq surfhgxuh/ glhuhqw iurp doo suhylrxv vwxglhv/ dv wkh| whvw erwk fkdqqhov ri lq xhqfh zlwkrxw dvvxplqj udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv ri h{fkdqjh udwhv> lqghhg/ wkh h{shfwhg ixwxuh XV groodu0Jhupdq pdun h{fkdqjh udwhv xvhg lq wkh hvwlpd0 wlrq duh zhhno| dqg elzhhno| vxuyh| gdwd rq pdunhw iruhfdvwv1 Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho hvwlpdwh d wzr0htxdwlrq v|vwhp zkhuh rqh ri wkh htxdwlrqv ghqhv wkh h{shfwdwlrqv irupdwlrq phfkdqlvp dqg wkh rwkhu htxdwlrq lv dq lqyhuwhg sruw0 irolr edodqfh htxdwlrq zklfk doorzv iru phdq0yduldqfh rswlpl}dwlrq159 Dovr/
58 Dqrwkhu lpsruwdqw hduo| frqwulexwlrq lv gxh wr Revwihog +4<<3,1 Wklv lv dq h{dplqdwlrq ri wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri iruhljq h{fkdqjh lqwhuyhqwlrq diwhu wkh 4<;8 Sod}d Krwho dqqrxqfhphqw e| wkh J8 frxqwulhv1 Dw wkdw wlph/ d vxevwdqwldo uhdoljqphqw ri h{fkdqjh udwhv rffxuuhg dqg/ dw wkh vdph wlph/ iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw lqwhuyhqwlrq 0 pdlqo| frqfhuwhg dqg vwhulol}hg 0 zdv xqghuwdnhq rq d vfdoh qrw vhhq vlqfh wkh hduo| 4<:3v1 Wkh hylghqfh surgxfhg lqglfdwhv wkdw vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq kdg sod|hg d uhodwlyho| plqru uroh lq surprwlqj h{fkdqjh udwh uhdoljqphqw/ zkloh vkliwv lq wkh sdwwhuqv ri prqhwdu| dqg vfdo srolf| zhuh wkh pdlq idfwruv ghwhuplqlqj fxuuhqf| ydoxhv gxulqj wkh odwh 4<;3v1 Vlplodu uhvxowv duh rewdlqhg e| vhyhudo rwkhu vwxglhv +hj1 vhh Kxpsdjh dqg Rvwhuehuj/ 4<<3> Hlm!qjhu dqg Juxlmwhuv/ 4<<4d/e,1 59 Pruh suhflvho|/ wkh h{shfwdwlrqv irupdwlrq phfkdqlvp lv ghvfulehg e| dq htxdwlrq zkhuh wkh lqyhvwru*v iruhfdvw ri wkh h{shfwhg ixwxuh h{fkdqjh udwh lv wkh ghshqghqw yduldeoh dqg wkh h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv duh wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh frqwhpsrudqhrxv dqg wkh odjjhg h{fkdqjh udwh dqg wkuhh glhuhqw gxpplhv iru lqirupdwlrq rq lqwhuyhqwlrq uhsruwhg lq qhzvsdshuv/ df0

4<

wkh hvwlpdwhg prgho doorzv iru doo ri wkh ixqgdphqwdov vxjjhvwhg e| wudglwlrqdo h{fkdqjh udwh ghwhuplqdwlrq prghov dv h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv/ wkhuhe| surylglqj d pruh fduhixoo| vshflhg uhgxfhg irup uhjuhvvlrq iru wkh h{fkdqjh udwh uhodwlyh wr suhylrxv vwxglhv1 Lqwhuyhqwlrq lv ghqhg lq wkuhh glhuhqw zd|v= rqh0gd| lqwhuyhqwlrq +rffxuulqj dw wkh hqg ri wkh gd| ehiruh wkh vxuyh|,/ rqh0zhhn ru wzr0zhhnv lqwhuyhqwlrq +fxpxodwhg ehwzhhq vxuyh| iruhfdvwv, dqg fxpxodwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq +fxpxodwhg iurp wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wkh vdpsoh shulrg,1 Wkh dx0 wkruv dovr glvwlqjxlvk/ lq vrph ri wkh pdq| uhjuhvvlrqv hvwlpdwhg lq wkhlu vwxg|/ ehwzhhq sxeolf dqg vhfuhw lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Ryhudoo/ wkh prqrjudsk ri Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6d, surylghv vwurqj vwdwlvwlfdo hylghqfh vxssruwlyh ri wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq wkurx0 jk erwk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho dqg wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho1 Lw lv dovr vkrzq wkdw/ iru fhuwdlq sdudphwhu ydoxhv dqg xqghu wkh wzr dvvxpswlrqv wkdw lqwhuhvw udwhv duh frqvwdqw dqg wkdw h{shfwdwlrqv duh qhlwkhu dgdswlyh qru h{0 wudsrodwlyh/ wkh txdqwlwdwlyh hhfwv ri vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq pd| eh vxevwdqwldo1 Wkhvh uhvxowv duh dujxdeo| wkh prvw vxssruwlyh ri wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri r!fldo lq0 whuyhqwlrq lq wkh uhohydqw olwhudwxuh1 Wkh xvh ri vxuyh| gdwd/ wkh elodwhudo edvlv ri wkh hvwlpdwhg uhjuhvvlrq +udwkhu wkdq pxowlodwhudo,/ wkh vdpsoh shulrg frqvlg0 huhg +rqo| gdwd iru wkh 4<;3v, dqg wkh frqvwudlqw ri phdq0yduldqfh rswlpl}dwlrq lpsrvhg lq wkh lqyhuwhg sruwirolr edodqfh htxdwlrq doo uhsuhvhqw srwhqwldo idfwruv wkdw pd| kdyh lq xhqfhg wkh qglqjv ri Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6d,/ dqg ixuwkhu zrun wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh vshflflw| ri wkhlu uhvxowv lv wkhuhiruh zduudqwhg1 Wkh dxwkruv frqfoxgh wkhlu prqrjudsk holflwlqj d ylhz 0 vkduhg e| wkh suhvhqw dxwkruv 0 fkdudfwhul}hg e| d fhuwdlq ghjuhh ri rswlplvp= cRxu uhvxowv vxjjhvw wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq fdq eh hhfwlyh/ hvshfldoo| li lw lv sxe0 olfo| dqqrxqfhg dqg frqfhuwhg1 Lw pd| eh wkdw vwhulol}hg lqwhuyhqwlrq fdq rqo| kdyh hhfwv lq wkh vkruw whup1 Exw li vkruw0whup hhfwv lqfoxgh wkh exuvwlqj ri d qlqh0prqwk exeeoh hduolhu wkdq lw zrxog rwkhuzlvh kdyh exuvw/ wkhq vxfk dq hhfw pd| eh doo wkdw lv qhhghg ^111` Rxu vshflf uhfrpphqgdwlrqv duh txlwh prghvw= wkdw wkh dxwkrulwlhv pdnh wkhlu lqwhuyhqwlrqv sxeolf/ wkdw dq lqwhudjhqf| surfhvv uhjxoduo| frqvlghu h{fkdqjh udwh ghyhorsphqwv lq oljkw ri ghyhorsphqwv lq wkh ixqgdphqwdov/ dqg wkh J: glvfxvvlrqv rq pdfurhfrqrplf srolf| dqg h{0 fkdqjh udwhv eh lqwhjudwhg1* +s1 473, Lq d ixuwkhu frpsohphqwdu| vwxg|/ xvlqj vxuyh| gdwd rq groodu0pdun h{0 fkdqjh udwh h{shfwdwlrqv/ Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6f, surylgh hylghqfh wkdw r!fldo dqqrxqfhphqwv ri h{fkdqjh udwh srolf| dqg uhsruwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq vljqli0 lfdqwo| dhfw h{fkdqjh udwh h{shfwdwlrqv dqg wkdw/ ryhudoo/ wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq/ lq whupv ri vljqlfdqwo| dhfwlqj erwk zhhno| dqg gdlo| h{fkdqjh udwh fkdqjhv/ lv yhu| pxfk hqkdqfhg li lw lv sxeolfo| dqqrxqfhg15:
wxdo lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwhg e| wkh Exqghvedqn/ dqg dfwxdo lqwhuyhqwlrq e| wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh uhsruwhg lq wkh qhzvsdshuv1 5: Wkh olwhudwxuh lghqwlhv d qxpehu ri hslvrghv ri frruglqdwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq ryhu wkh 4<;80 4<<4 shulrg dfurvv wkh J6 frxqwulhv +wkh XV/ Jhupdq| dqg Mdsdq,/ doo ri zklfk pd| kdyh ehhq vxffhvvixo lq uhyhuvlqj wkh wuhqg lq wkh groodu/ suhvxpdeo| wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho +Fdwwh/ Jdool dqg Uhehffklql/ 4<<7,1

53

Xvlqj sxeolfo| dydlodeoh gdwd rq XV iruhljq h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq/ dq lqwhuhvwlqj olwhudwxuh h{dplqhv wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg prqhwdu| srolf|/ whvwlqj wkh k|srwkhvlv wkdw r!fldo lqwhuyhq0 wlrq vljqdov fkdqjhv lq ixwxuh prqhwdu| srolf| dv zhoo dv wkh k|srwkhvlv wkdw fkdqjhv lq prqhwdu| srolf| pd| lqgxfh ohdqlqj0djdlqvw0wkh0zlqg lqwhuyhqwlrqv1 Wklv olwhudwxuh surylghv shuvxdvlyh vxssruwlyh hylghqfh iru erwk k|srwkhvhv/ vxjjhvwlqj wkdw r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq pd| suhglfw prqhwdu| srolf| yduldeohv dqg ylfh yhuvd +hj1 vhh Ohzlv/ 4<<8 iru d vwxg| ri wkh shulrg iurp 4<;8 wr 4<<3,1 Wklv olwhudwxuh dovr h{dplqhv wkh suhglfwlrq ri wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho k|srwkhvlv wkdw fhqwudo edqnv vljqdo d pruh frqwudfwlrqdu| prqhwdu| srolf| lq wkh ixwxuh e| ex|lqj grphvwlf fxuuhqf| wrgd| dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ wkdw h{shfwdwlrqv ri ixwxuh wljkwhu prqhwdu| srolf| pdnh wkh grphvwlf fxuuhqf| dssuhfldwh/ hyhq wkrxjk wkh fxuuhqw prqhwdu| hhfwv ri wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq duh w|slfdoo| rvhw e| vwhulol}d0 wlrq1 Wklv h{shfwdwlrq suhvxphv wkdw fhqwudo edqnv lq idfw edfn xs lqwhuyhqwlrqv zlwk vxevhtxhqw fkdqjhv lq prqhwdu| srolf|/ dqg wkh olwhudwxuh surylghv dpsoh hylghqfh lq idyru ri wklv suhvxpswlrq +Ndplqvn| dqg Ohzlv/ 4<<9,1 Dqrwkhu lqwhuhvwlqj frqwulexwlrq lq wklv frqwh{w/ gxh wr Erqvhu0Qhdo/ Uroh| dqg Vhoorq +4<<;,/ uh0h{dplqhv wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh prqhwdu| srolf| dfwlrqv/ XV lqwhuyhqwlrqv lq fxuuhqf| pdunhwv dqg h{fkdqjh udwhv xvlqj dq dowhuqdwlyh phdvxuh ri prqhwdu| srolf| dfwlrqv 0 wkh Ihghudo Uh0 vhuyh*v ihghudo ixqgv lqwhuhvw udwh wdujhw1 Wkh dxwkruv qg wkdw wkh h{fkdqjh udwh jhqhudoo| uhvsrqgv lpphgldwho| wr XV prqhwdu| srolf| dfwlrqv dqg wkdw wklv uhvsrqvh lv xvxdoo| frqvlvwhqw zlwk Gruqexvfk*v +4<:9, h{fkdqjh udwh ryhu0 vkrrwlqj k|srwkhvlv1 Wkh dxwkruv dovr qg hylghqfh ri vljqdoolqj dqg ohdqlqj djdlqvw wkh zlqg lq XV lqwhuyhqwlrq srolflhv ryhu wkh vdpsoh shulrg1 D forvho| uhodwhg vwudqg ri wkh olwhudwxuh kdv uhfhqwo| dgguhvvhg wkh txhvwlrq ri zkhwkhu wkhuh lv d olqn ehwzhhq fhqwudo edqn lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg wkh yrodwlolw| ri iruhljq h{fkdqjh udwhv1 Erqvhu0Qhdo dqg Wdqqhu +4<<9,/ iru h{dpsoh/ h{dplqh wkh hhfwv ri fhqwudo edqn lqwhuyhqwlrq rq wkh h{ dqwh yrodwlolw| ri wkh XV groodu0 Jhupdq pdun dqg wkh XV groodu0Mdsdqhvh |hq iurp 4<;8 wr 4<<4/ hvwlpdwlqj h{ dqwh yrodwlolw| xvlqj wkh lpsolhg yrodwlolwlhv ri fxuuhqf| rswlrq sulfhv dqg dovr frqwuroolqj iru wkh hhfwv ri rwkhu pdfurhfrqrplf dqqrxqfhphqwv1 Erqvhu0Qhdo dqg Wdqqhu qg olwwoh vxssruw iru wkh k|srwkhvlv wkdw fhqwudo edqn lqwhuyhqwlrq lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk d srvlwlyh fkdqjh lq h{ dqwh h{fkdqjh udwh yrodwlolw| ru zlwk qr fkdqjh15; Pruh uhfhqwo|/ wkh vwdqgdug ri wkh dqdo|vlv kdv ehhq udlvhg xvlqj lqwudgd| gdwd1 Iru h{dpsoh/ Fkdqj dqg Wd|oru +4<<;, h{dplqh wkh hhfwv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq e| wkh Edqn ri Mdsdq xvlqj lqwudgd| gdwd iurp Rfwrehu 4/ 4<<5 wr Vhswhpehu 63/ 4<<6 dqg qhzv uhodwhg wr wkh Edqn ri Mdsdq lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh |hq0groodu pdu0 nhw uhwulhyhg iurp Uhxwhuv* uhsruwv1 Wkh| qg wkdw |hq0groodu yrodwlolw| ydulhv vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqwo| dfurvv shulrgv iurp rqh ehiruh wr rqh diwhu Uhxwhuv* lq0 whuyhqwlrq uhsruwv1 Xvlqj dxwruhjuhvvlyh frqglwlrqdo khwhurvnhgdvwlflw| prghov/ Fkdqj dqg Wd|oru qg wkdw wkhlu lqwhuyhqwlrq sur{| kdv wkh odujhvw hhfw rq
5; Wkh olqn ehwzhhq lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg h{fkdqjh udwh yrodwlolw| kdv dovr ehhq irupdoo| udwlrqdo0 l}hg lq vrph uhfhqw wkhruhwlfdo vwxglhv/ jhqhudoo| lq wkh frqwh{w ri pxowl0frxqwu| lqwhuwhpsrudo dvvhw sulflqj prghov +hj1 vhh Edloolh dqg Rvwhuehuj/ 4<<:,1

54

kljk iuhtxhqf| yrodwlolw| wkluw| wr iruw|0yh plqxwhv sulru wr Uhxwhuv* uhsruwv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq1

717

Wkh vhfuhf| sx}}oh

Prvw dfwxdo lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw kdyh ehhq 0 dqg vwloo duh 0 odujho| vhfuhw/ qrw sxeolfo| dqqrxqfhg e| prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv1 Wklv vhfuhf| ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv gl!fxow wr h{sodlq/ krzhyhu/ jlyhq wkdw wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho lv h{shfwhg wr zrun wkurxjk dowhulqj wkh h{shfwdwlrqv ri rwkhu pdunhw djhqwv wkurxjk srolf| dqqrxqfhphqwv e| prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv1 Wkh wudglwlrqdo uhohydqw olwhudwxuh lghqwlhv wkuhh w|shv ri dujxphqwv lq idyru ri vhfuhf| ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq= dujxphqwv edvhg rq wkh fhqwudo edqn*v ghvluh wr plqlpl}h wkh hhfwv ri dq xqzdqwhg lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrq +iru h{dpsoh ehfdxvh wkh ghflvlrq kdv ehhq wdnhq rxwvlgh wkh fhqwudo edqn/ hj1 e| wkh Wuhdvxu|,/ dujx0 phqwv edvhg rq wkh shufhlyhg ulvn dqg yrodwlolw| lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw zklfk pljkw eh h{dfhuedwhg e| dq dqqrxqfhphqw ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq/ dqg sruwirolr dgmxvwphqw dujxphqwv +Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho/ 4<<6d,1 D ixuwkhu h{sodqdwlrq pd| eh wkdw dowkrxjk prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv lqwhuyhqh lq rughu wr wdujhw wkh ydoxh ri d iruhljq fxuuhqf|/ vlqfh wkh ixqgdphqwdov ri wkh iruhljq fxu0 uhqf| duh qrw qhfhvvdulo| htxdo wr wklv remhfwlyh/ wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv gr qr kdyh dq lqfhqwlyh wr uhyhdo wkhlu lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv dqg qr dqqrxqfhphqw rq wkhlu dfwlylwlhv zloo eh fuhgleoh +vhh Ekdwwdfkdu|d dqg Zhoohu/ 4<<:> Ylwdoh/ 4<<<d/e/f,1 Zkloh vrph ri wkhvh dujxphqwv pd| dsso| vrph ri wkh wlph/ qrqh ri wkhp vhhpv wr h{sodlq ixoo| wkh zlghvsuhdg sudfwlfh ri vhfuhw lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv/ dqg ixuwkhu vwxg| lv uhtxluhg wr dqdo|}h wkhvh lvvxhv ixuwkhu dqg lpsuryh rxu xqghuvwdqglqj1 Dv zh kdyh frqmhfwxuhg deryh/ ixuwkhu dqdo|vlv ri vhfrqg0 jhqhudwlrq fxuuhqf| fulvlv prghov pd| xowlpdwho| vkhg vrph oljkw rq wklv sx}}oh= vhfuhf| ri lqwhuyhqwlrq pd| eh dq dwwhpsw wr dhfw wkh h{fkdqjh udwh wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho zlwkrxw wuljjhulqj d vhoi0ixooolqj dwwdfn rq wkh fxuuhqf|1 Iru wkh prphqw/ krzhyhu/ wkh vhfuhf| ri pxfk r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq uhpdlqv vrphwklqj ri d sx}}oh1

718

Wkh hpslulfv ri fhqwudo edqn uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv

Wkh hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh rq fhqwudo edqn uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv kdv w|slfdoo| uh0 sruwhg udwkhu vlpsoh ixqfwlrqv lq dq dwwhpsw wr vkhg oljkw rq wkh ehkdylru ri fhqwudo edqnv lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw dqg wr whvw fhuwdlq wkhruhwlfdo suhglfwlrqv frqfhuqlqj lqwhuyhqwlrq15< Zkloh wkh ghshqgdqw yduldeoh lq wkhvh uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv lv dozd|v vrph phdvxuh ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq/ wkh h{sodqd0 wru| yduldeohv frqvlghuhg ydu| dfurvv vwxglhv1 Lq prvw fdvhv/ krzhyhu/ h{fkdqjh
5< Wkhuh lv e| qrz d yhu| odujh dqg vwloo jurzlqj erg| ri hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh rq wkh uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv ri fhqwudo edqnv1 Wkh olwhudwxuh hvshfldoo| irfxvhv rq prqhwdu| srolf| uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv ru cWd|oru uxohv* 0 vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/ Wxoolr dqg Urqfl +4<<:,/ dqg Fodulgd/ Jdol dqg Jhuwohu +4<<;/ 4<<<, dqg wkh uhihuhqfhv wkhuhlq1 Wkh irfxv ri wklv vhfwlrq lv/ krzhyhu/ vshflfdoo| rq uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv ghvljqhg wr h{dplqh h{fkdqjh udwh pdqdjhphqw1

55

udwh fkdqjhv dqg ghyldwlrqv ri wkh dfwxdo h{fkdqjh udwh iurp lwv wdujhw ohyho duh lqfoxghg1 D idluo| w|slfdo uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrq wdnhv wkh iroorzlqj irup= LQ Ww @ 3 . 4 +vw vW , . 5 vw . [w . w > w +<,

zkhuh LQ Ww lv wkh dprxqw ri lqwhuyhqwlrq dw wlph w/ 3 / 4 dqg 5 duh vfdodu sdudphwhuv/ [w lv d yhfwru ri hfrqrplf idfwruv zklfk pd| lq xhqfh r!fldo lq0 whuyhqwlrq +hj1 odjjhg lqwhuyhqwlrq ru wkh frxqwu|*v wudgh edodqfh srvlwlrq,/  lv d fruuhvsrqglqj yhfwru ri sdudphwhuv/ vw dqg vW ghqrwh wkh dfwxdo dqg wdujhw w ohyho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh +grphvwlf sulfh ri iruhljq fxuuhqf|, dw wlph w +lq orjd0 ulwkpv,/ vw lv wkh +shufhqwdjh, fkdqjh lq wkh h{fkdqjh udwh/ dqg w lv dq huuru whup163 Wkh vljq ri 4 lv h{shfwhg wr eh qhjdwlyh li lqwhuyhqwlrq lv vwdelol}lqj lq wkh vhqvh wkdw wkh yroxph ri lqwhuyhqwlrq lv lqyhuvho| uhodwhg wr wkh ghyldwlrqv ri wkh dfwxdo h{fkdqjh udwh iurp lwv wdujhw ohyho/ zkhuhdv 5 lv xqfrqvwudlqhg dqg dq hvwlpdwhg qhjdwlyh +srvlwlyh, vljq lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh fhqwudo edqn vhoov +ex|v, iruhljq h{fkdqjh +grphvwlf fxuuhqf|, zkhq wkh fxuuhqf| kdv ghsuhfldwhg +dssuhfldwhg,/ lpso|lqj wkdw wkh fhqwudo edqn sxuvxhv d srolf| ri ohdqlqj djdlqvw +zlwk, wkh zlqg164 Wkh pdlq uhvxowv uhfrughg e| wkh uhohydqw olwhudwxuh rq hvwlpdwlqj uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv ri wkh irup +<, ru yduldqwv ri lw/ odujho| fduulhg rxw lq wkh 4<;3v dqg dssolhg wr vrph ri wkh fhqwudo edqnv ri wkh pdmru lqgxvwuldol}hg qdwlrqv/ pd| eh eulh | vxppdul}hg dv iroorzv=65 d, wkh Exqghvedqn*v pdlq remhfwlyh ri h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq zdv vprrwk0 lqj fkdqjhv lq wkh h{fkdqjh udwh e| iroorzlqj d srolf| ri ohdqlqj djdlqvw wkh zlqg> e, wkh Edqn ri Mdsdq dgrswhg d srolf| ri ohdqlqj djdlqvw wkh zlqg dqg uhvsrqghg pruh vwurqjo| wr h{fkdqjh udwh fkdqjhv wkdq wr ghyldwlrqv ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh iurp lwv wdujhw ohyho> f, wkh Vzlvv fhqwudo edqn dovr dgrswhg d srolf| ri ohdqlqj djdlqvw wkh zlqg dqg pdlqo| wdujhwhg ghyldwlrqv ri wkh dfwxdo h{fkdqjh udwh iurp lwv wdujhw ohyho/ dowkrxjk erwk 4 dqg 5 zhuh irxqg wr eh vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw dqg fruuhfwo| vljqhg> g, wkh Edqn ri Hqjodqg lqwhuyhqhg pdlqo| iru vprrwklqj h{fkdqjh udwh pryh0 phqwv/ exw glg qrw wdujhw wkh ohyho ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh166
63 Dowkrxjk vrph uhvhdufkhuv hvwlpdwh htxdwlrqv olnh +<, e| ruglqdu| ohdvw vtxduhv/ lqvwux0 phqwdo yduldeoh hvwlpdwlrq lv vwurqjo| dgylvhg jlyhq wkh hqgrjhqhlw| ri wkh yduldeohv lq +<,1 64 Wkh wudglwlrqdo dssurdfk wr wkh hvwlpdwlrq ri vwhulol}dwlrq htxdwlrqv kdv riwhq ehhq fulw0 lfl}hg rq ydulrxv jurxqgv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ rqh pd| dujxh djdlqvw wkh dg krf vshflfdwlrq ri wkh uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrq ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv w|slfdoo| hpsor|hg e| wklv olwhudwxuh1 Dq dowhuqdwlyh dqdo|wlfdo prgho zkhuh wkh vwhulol}dwlrq htxdwlrqv duh ghulyhg iurp dq h{solflw pd{lpl}dwlrq sureohp vroyhg e| wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv zrxog eh pruh uljrurxv1 Lq vxfk d prgho/ wkh rswlpdo lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg vwhulol}dwlrq srolflhv ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv duh olnho| wr eh d ixqfwlrq ri wkh glhuhqw glvwxuedqfhv klwwlqj wkh hfrqrp| dqg wkh suhihuhqfhv ri wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv +hj1 vhh Urxelql/ 4<;;,1 65 Iru d olvw ri wkh qxphurxv vwxglhv lq wklv frqwh{w vhh Hglvrq +4<<6,1 66 Lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh uhvsrqvh wr h{fkdqjh udwh fkdqjhv lv dv|pphwulf iru ydulrxv fhqwudo edqnv/ dqg riwhq lq glhuhqw gluhfwlrqv +vhh Hglvrq/ 4<<6,1

56

Qrwh wkdw wklv vwudqg ri wkh hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh dvvxphv wkdw fhqwudo edqnv whqg wr vwhulol}h wkhlu lqwhuyhqwlrqv lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw1 Wkh txhvwlrq zkhwkhu fhqwudo edqnv ixoo| vwhulol}h wkhlu lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv lv/ krzhyhu/ dovr dgguhvvhg h{solflwo| e| vrph uhvhdufkhuv1 Wkh vwdqgdug dssurdfk iroorzhg lv wr hvwlpdwh d uhjuhvvlrq zlwk grphvwlf fuhglw ru wkh prqhwdu| edvh dv ghshq0 ghqw yduldeoh dqg fkdqjhv lq qhw iruhljq uhvhuyhv/ frqwhpsrudqhrxv rxwsxw jds dqg lq dwlrq dv h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv167 Wkh iroorzlqj wzr irupv ri uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv kdyh ehhq frqvlghuhg dqg hvwlpdwhg e| vrph vwxglhv lq wklv olwhudwxuh= GFw @ 4 QI Dw . 5 +| P Ew @ 4 Q I Dw . 5 +| | ,w . 6 w . $4w | ,w . 6 w . $5w +43, +44,

zkhuh GFw ghqrwhv grphvwlf fuhglw/ Q I Dw ghqrwhv qhw iruhljq dvvhwv/ +| | ,w lv wkh jds ehwzhhq fxuuhqw rxwsxw dqg lwv qdwxudo ohyho/ w ghqrwhv lq dwlrq/ PEw uhsuhvhqwv wkh grphvwlf prqhwdu| edvh/ uhsuhvhqwv d fkdqjh lq d vwrfn/ dqg $4w dqg $5w duh huuru whupv1 Lqirupdwlrq zlwk uhjdug wr wkh ghjuhh ri vwhulol}dwlrq xvhg e| fhqwudo edqnv lv surylghg e| hvwlpdwhv ri wkh frh!flhqwv 4 dqg 4 1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh hvwlpdwhg 4 frh!flhqw lv h{shfwhg wr eh qhjdwlyh1 Li lw lv qrw vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp 04/ vwhulol}dwlrq lv ixoo/ zkloh li lw lv juhdwhu wkdq 04 dqg ohvv wkdq }hur/ vwhulol}dwlrq lv rqo| sduwldo1 Wkh lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri 4 lv glhuhqw lq wkh vhqvh wkdw ixoo vwhulol}dwlrq lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk dq hvwlpdwhg ydoxh iru 4 zklfk lv qrw vljqlfdqwo| glhuhqw iurp }hur1 Dovr/ qrwh wkh hfrqrphwulf gl!fxow| lq vhsdudwho| lghqwli|lqj d uhdfwlrq ixqf0 wlrq iurp sulydwh ehkdylru1 Iru h{dpsoh/ htxdwlrq +43, frxog eh lqyhuwhg wr vkrz wkh crvhw* ri grphvwlf prqhwdu| rshudwlrqv wkurxjk hqgrjhqrxv fdslwdo rzv zklfk dhfw QI D168 Wkh uhohydqw hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh Exqghvedqn kdv lq wkh sdvw whqghg wr vwhulol}h dw ohdvw sduwldoo| iruhljq h{fkdqjh lqwhuyhqwlrq rshud0 wlrqv/ dowkrxjk wkh ghjuhh ri vwhulol}dwlrq ydulhv ryhu wlph +vhh wkh uhihuhqfhv lq Hglvrq/ 4<<6,1 Vlploduo|/ xvlqj Mdsdqhvh gdwd/ uhvhdufkhuv jhqhudoo| surylgh hylghqfh vxjjhvwlqj wkdw wkh Edqn ri Mdsdq vwhulol}hg lwv lqwhuyhqwlrq rshud0 wlrqv/ dowkrxjk vwhulol}dwlrq lv irxqg wr eh ixoo lq vrph vwxglhv exw ydu|lqj ryhu wlph dqg ghfuhdvlqj gxulqj wkh srvw0Euhwwrq Zrrgv shulrg lq rwkhu vwxglhv +hj1 Wdndjl/ 4<<4> Hglvrq/ 4<<6,1 Pruh uhfhqwo|/ d qryho dssurdfk wr ghulylqj d fhqwudo edqn lqwhuyhqwlrq uh0 dfwlrq ixqfwlrq kdv ehhq sursrvhg e| Dophnlqghuv dqg Hlm!qjhu +4<<9,1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wklv lv d prgho ri h{fkdqjh udwhv wkdw fdswxuhv jhqhudol}hg dxwruh0 juhvvlyh frqglwlrqdo khwhurvnhgdvwlflw|/ vxfk wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq lv doorzhg wr kdyh
jlyhq wkh hqgrjhqhlw| ri wkhvh yduldeohv/ lqvwuxphqwdo yduldeohv hvwlpdwlrq lv uh0 txluhg1 68 Wklv lvvxh zdv uvw glvfxvvhg e| Nrxul dqg Sruwhu +4<:7, lq wkh frqwh{w ri dq rshq0 hfrqrp| jhqhudo htxloleulxp prgho ri lqwhuqdwlrqdo fdslwdo rzv ghwhuplqdwlrq zkhuh fdslwdo rzv duh hvvhqwldoo| vhhq dv wkh phfkdqlvp e| zklfk d grphvwlf h{fhvv ghpdqg iru prqh| lv uhpryhg1
67 Djdlq/

57

dq hhfw rq erwk wkh phdq dqg wkh yduldqfh ri h{fkdqjh udwh uhwxuqv1 Dq lq0 whuyhqwlrq uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrq lv rewdlqhg e| frpelqlqj wkh h{fkdqjh udwh prgho zlwk d sduwlfxodu orvv ixqfwlrq iru wkh fhqwudo edqn1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri Dophnlqghuv dqg Hlm!qjhu vxjjhvw wkdw erwk wkh Exqghvedqn dqg wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh odujho| dgrswhg d ohdqlqj0djdlqvw0wkh0zlqg srolf| dqg kdyh riwhq uh0 dfwhg wr lqfuhdvhv lq wkh frqglwlrqdo yduldqfh ri gdlo| Jhupdq pdun0XV groodu uhwxuqv169 Ryhudoo/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh hpslulfdo olwhudwxuh rq fhqwudo edqn uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv surylghv idluo| pl{hg uhvxowv dqg fhuwdlqo| uhsuhvhqwv dq lpsruwdqw srwhqwldo dyhqxh iru ixwxuh uhvhdufk/ hvshfldoo| lq wkh oljkw ri wkh juhdwhu gdwd dydlodelolw| lq uhfhqw |hduv1 Hylghqfh wr gdwh/ krzhyhu/ vxjjhvwv wkdw fhqwudo edqnv dsshdu wr xvh odujho| d srolf| ri ohdqlqj djdlqvw wkh zlqg/ wr uhdfw wr erwk fkdqjhv ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh iurp wkh wdujhw dqg wr h{fkdqjh udwh pryhphqwv/ dqg wr vwhulol}h 0 dw ohdvw sduwldoo| 0 wkhlu lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv16:

719

Surwdelolw| ri lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv dv d whvw ri wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq

Dffruglqj wr Iulhgpdq*v +4<86, ylhz rq r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq/ d fhqwudo edqn zklfk lv vxffhvvixo lq vwdelol}lqj wkh h{fkdqjh udwh vkrxog pdnh d surw dw wkh h{shqvh ri vshfxodwruv/ lpso|lqj wkdw li r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq lv qrw surwdeoh lw lv qrw hhfwlyh1 Wklv lv wkh udwlrqdoh iru phdvxulqj wkh surwdelolw| ri lqwhuyhqwlrq dv d phdqv ri hydoxdwlqj wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Hpslulfdo vwxglhv irfxvlqj rq wkh surwdelolw| ri lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv duh/ krzhyhu/ uhodwlyho| vsduvh/ suhvxpdeo| ehfdxvh ri wkh vljqlfdqw gl!fxowlhv hq0 frxqwhuhg lq wu|lqj wr fdofxodwh surwv dqg orvvhv lq wklv frqwh{w1 Uhvhdufkhuv w|slfdoo| phdvxuh fhqwudo edqnv* surwv iurp r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq rq wkh edvlv ri htxdwlrqv ri wkh irup= }w @ Sw

n@4 i {n +Vw

Vn , . Vn +l n

l Sn ln , m @4 i{m

+45,

zkhuh }w ghqrwhv surwv/ i {n ghqrwhv sxufkdvhv ri iruhljq h{fkdqjh dw wlph n/ Vw dqg Vn duh hqg0ri0shulrg qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwhv +grphvwlf sulfhv ri iruhljq
69 Wkh hylghqfh rq uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrqv ri fhqwudo edqnv lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv dqg wudqvlwlrq hfrqrplhv lv vwloo yhu| vsduvh/ shukdsv ehfdxvh wkh hfrqrplf dqg srolwlfdo hqylurqphqw kdv ehhq pxfk pruh xqvwdeoh lq wkhvh frxqwulhv dqg/ prvw lpsruwdqwo|/ ehfdxvh gdwd duh ohvv uholdeoh dqg riwhq qrw dydlodeoh1 Wzr vwxglhv duh/ krzhyhu/ zruwk qrwlqj1 Urqfl dqg Wxoolr +4<<9, qg d yhu| vwdeoh uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrq iru wkh Fhqwudo Edqn ri Eud}lo gxulqj wkh kljk lq dwlrq shulrg iurp 4<;3 wr 4<<61 Pruh uhfhqwo|/ Wxoolr dqg Qdwdury +4<<<, hvwlpdwh d gdlo| uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrq iru wkh Fhqwudo Edqn ri Uxvvld xvlqj gdlo| gdwd iru wkh shulrg iurp Rfwrehu 4/ 4<<9 wr Rfwrehu 4/ 4<<:1 Wkh dxwkruv qg d v|vwhpdwlf dqg vljqlfdqw uhdfwlrq ri wkh Edqn wr fkdqjhv lq pdunhw |lhogv/ wr ghyldwlrqv ri wkh pdunhw h{fkdqjh udwh iurp wkh fhqwudo udwh ri wkh qduurz urxeoh0XV groodu fruulgru/ wr fkdqjhv lq wkh uhjxodwlrqv frqfhuqlqj uhsdwuldwlrq ri iruhljq fdslwdo dqg wr fkdqjhv lq wkh glhuhqwldo ehwzhhq |lhogv rq wd{deoh dqg qrqwd{deoh Wuhdvxu| eloov1 6: Lqghhg/ wklv frqfoxvlrq lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh uhfhqw qglqjv e| Qhho| +5334,/ zkr xvhg vxuyh| gdwd edvhg rq txhvwlrqdluhv vhqw wr wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv ri 77 frxqwulhv1

58

fxuuhqf|, dw wlphv w dqg n uhvshfwlyho|/ dqg ln dqg l ghqrwh wkh grphvwlf dqg n iruhljq lqwhuhvw udwhv uhvshfwlyho| dw wlph n1 Dffruglqj wr htxdwlrq +45,/ surwv duh ghwhuplqhg e| wzr idfwruv= +d, wkh glhuhqwldo ehwzhhq wkh hqg ri shulrg h{fkdqjh udwh dw wlph w dqg wkh h{fkdqjh udwh dw zklfk wkh iruhljq fxuuhqf| zdv sxufkdvhg dw wlph n> dqg +e, wkh lqwhuhvw udwh glhuhqwldo ehwzhhq wkh wzr frxqwulhv zkrvh fxuuhqflhv duh lqyroyhg lq wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrq/ dqg khqfh wkh lqwhuhvw udwh frvwv ri wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh surylghg e| uhvhdufkhuv rq wkh surwdelolw| ri lqwhu0 yhqwlrq lq wkh 4<;3v/ zhoo vxuyh|hg e| Hglvrq +4<<6,/ Vzhhqh| +4<<:, dqg Qhho| +4<<;,/ vxjjhvwv wkdw surwv iurp lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv pd| ydu| vljqlfdqwo| dffruglqj wr wkh vdpsoh shulrg frqvlghuhg exw/ lq jhqhudo dqg lq wkh orqj uxq/ fhqwudo edqnv pdnh surwv1 D jhqhudo ixqgdphqwdo gudzedfn/ krzhyhu/ ri wklv vwudqg ri wkh olwhudwxuh lv frqfhuqhg zlwk wkh lpsolflw dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh surwdelolw| ri lqwhuyhqwlrq uhsuhvhqwv d ydolg fulwhulrq e| zklfk wr phdvxuh wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Dv fohduo| vkrzq e| 0 dprqj rwkhuv 0 Hglvrq +4<<6,/ lw lv srvvleoh wr wklqn derxw yhu| uhdolvwlf vlwxdwlrqv lq zklfk vwdelol}lqj +hhfwlyh, r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq pd| qrw eh surwdeoh dqg/ ylfh yhuvd/ vlwxdwlrqv lq zklfk r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq pd| eh ghvwdelol}lqj exw surwdeoh1 Wkh dujxphqw lv wkdw/ li wkh dxwkrulwlhv zhuh wr sxufkdvh iruhljq h{fkdqjh zkhq lwv sulfh zdv orz dqg vhoo lw zkhq lwv sulfh zdv kljk/ wkhq devwudfwlqj iurp lqwhuhvw0udwh frqvlghudwlrqv/ lqwhuyhqwlrq zrxog eh surwdeoh hyhq li wkh sxufkdvhv dqg vdohv kdg qr vljqlfdqw hhfw rq h{fkdqjh udwhv1 Li wkh fhqwudo edqn fdq hduq surwv rq lqwhuyhqwlrq wkdw kdv qr hhfw rq h{fkdqjh udwhv/ wkhq lw lv gl!fxow wr dujxh wkdw wkrvh surwv lpso| wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq kdv d vwdelol}lqj hhfw rq h{fkdqjh udwhv1 Lq jhqhudo/ wkhuhiruh/ surwdelolw| ri lqwhuyhqwlrq lv qrw d whvw ri lwv hhfwlyhqhvv lq prylqj h{fkdqjh udwhv1 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ fhqwudo edqn lqwhuyhqwlrq orvvhv ru surwv ydu| zlgho|/ zlwk vrph vwxglhv uhsruwlqj vxevwdqwldo orvvhv/ rwkhuv vxevwdqwldo surwv1 Lq prvw fdvhv/ krzhyhu/ hvwlpdwhg surwv duh qrw ulvn0dgmxvwhg/ dowkrxjk ulvn dgmxvw0 phqw pd| kdyh d yhu| vljqlfdqw hhfw1 Dovr/ surw hvwlpdwhv lqyroyh wlph vhulhv zklfk duh jhqhudoo| irxqg wr eh lqwhjudwhg ri rughu rqh +khqfh qrqvwd0 wlrqdu|,/ lpso|lqj wkdw whvw vwdwlvwlfv lq wklv frqwh{w duh olnho| wr kdyh qrqvwdq0 gdug glvwulexwlrqv> yhu| ihz vwxglhv wdnh wklv idfwru lqwr dffrxqw1 Hvwlpdwhv ri ulvn0dgmxvwhg surwv iru wkh XV dqg wkh Vzhglvk fhqwudo edqnv/ frpsxwhg doorz0 lqj iru qrqvwdqgdug glvwulexwlrqv/ vxjjhvw wkdw qrqh ri wkhvh fhqwudo edqnv kdg pdgh orvvhv dqg pd| hyhq kdyh pdgh vljqlfdqw surwv +vhh Vzhhqh|/ 4<<:,1 D glhuhqw exw uhodwhg uhfhqw olwhudwxuh irfxvhv rq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq fhqwudo edqn lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg wudglqj uxoh surwv lq iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhwv1 Vwxglhv lq wklv frqwh{w riwhq h{dplqh prylqj dyhudjh wudglqj uxohv/ zklfk duh xwlol}hg lq erwk ixwxuhv dqg vsrw iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhwv wr vkrz wkdw vxe0 vwdqwldo surwv fdq eh hduqhg iru ydulrxv fxuuhqflhv +Wd|oru dqg Doohq/ 4<<5,1 Dovr/ fhqwudo edqn lqwhuyhqwlrq lv xvxdoo| irxqg wr eh vwurqjo| dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh surwdelolw| ri wudglqj uhwxuqv iru wkhvh pdmru fxuuhqflhv dqg sduwldoo| h{0 sodlqv uhwxuqv +V}dnpdun| dqg Pdwkxu/ 4<<:,1 Krzhyhu/ wklv olwhudwxuh odujho| irfxvhv rq lqyhvwljdwlqj zkhwkhu vlpsoh uxohv xvhg e| wudghuv kdyh vrph suh0 59

glfwlyh ydoxh ryhu wkh ixwxuh pryhphqw ri iruhljq h{fkdqjh udwhv lq frqqhfwlrq zlwk fhqwudo edqn dfwlylw|/ zlwk wkh pdlq remhfwlyh ri qglqj rxw wr zkdw h{0 whqw iruhljq h{fkdqjh suhglfwdelolw| fdq eh frqqhg wr shulrgv ri fhqwudo edqn dfwlylw| lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw1 Wkh hphujlqj vw|ol}hg idfw iurp wkh uhohydqw olwhudwxuh vhhpv wr eh wkdw/ diwhu uhprylqj shulrgv lq zklfk wkh fhqwudo edqn kdv ehhq sduwlfxoduo| dfwlyh lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw/ h{fkdqjh udwh suhglfwdelolw| lv gudpdwlfdoo| uhgxfhg +OhEdurq/ 4<<9,1

Frqfoxvlrq= Wrzdugv d Wklug Fkdqqho ri Lq0 xhqfhB

Lv r!fldo h{fkdqjh udwh lqwhuyhqwlrq hhfwlyh dqg/ li vr/ krz grhv lw zrunB Ryhudoo/ wkh hylghqfh rq wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq/ wkurxjk hlwkhu wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho ru wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho/ lv vwloo pl{hg rq edodqfh/ dowkrxjk wkh pruh uhfhqw olwhudwxuh grhv vxjjhvw d vljqlfdqw hhfw ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq rq erwk wkh ohyho dqg wkh fkdqjh ri h{fkdqjh udwhv1 Qhyhu0 wkhohvv/ lw lv shukdsv idlu wr vd| wkdw wkh vwxglhv ri wkh 4<<3v/ zklfk duh odujho| vxssruwlyh ri wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq/ vkrxog shukdsv eh jlyhq pruh zhljkw wkdq wkh vwxglhv ri wkh 4<;3v/ zklfk odujho| uhmhfwhg wkh hhfwlyhqhvv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Wklv lv ehfdxvh ri wkh uhprydo ri wkh wzr pdmru kdqglfdsv fkdudfwhul}lqj wkh hpslulfdo vwxglhv ri wkh 4<;3v/ qdpho| wkh odfn ri gdwd rq lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg wkh odfn ri vxuyh| gdwd rq h{fkdqjh udwh h{shfwdwlrqv1 Wkxv/ wkh hylghqfh surylghg e| Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6d/e/f, dqg vxevhtxhqw vwxglhv xvlqj wkhvh kljk txdolw| gdwd vhhpv wr xv wr eh vx!flhqwo| vwurqj dqg hfrqrphwulfdoo| vrxqg wr doorz xv wr frqfoxgh fdxwlrxvo| wkdw r!fldo lqwhuyhq0 wlrq fdq eh hhfwlyh/ hvshfldoo| li wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq lv sxeolfo| dqqrxqfhg dqg frqfhuwhg dqg surylghg wkdw lw lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh xqghuo|lqj vwdqfh ri prq0 hwdu| dqg vfdo srolf|1 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ ixuwkhu hpslulfdo zrun lq wklv duhd lv fohduo| zduudqwhg/ hvshfldoo| jlyhq wkh lqfuhdvlqj dydlodelolw| ri kljk txdolw| gdlo| gdwd rq lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Ri wkh wzr wudglwlrqdo fkdqqhov ri lq xhqfh/ lw lv whpswlqj wr frqmhfwxuh wkdw wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho zloo glplqlvk lq lpsruwdqfh ryhu wlph 0 dw ohdvw dprqj wkh pdmru lqgxvwuldol}hg frxqwulhv 0 dv lqwhuqdwlrqdo fdslwdo pdunhwv ehfrph lqfuhdvlqjo| lqwhjudwhg dqg wkh ghjuhh ri vxevwlwxwdelolw| ehwzhhq qdq0 fldo dvvhwv ghqrplqdwhg lq wkh pdmru fxuuhqflhv lqfuhdvhv1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw/ li lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh pdmru fxuuhqflhv lv hhfwlyh dw doo wkurxjk hlwkhu ri wkh wudglwlrqdo fkdqqhov ri lq xhqfh/ lw zloo lq ixwxuh eh hhfwlyh sulpdulo| wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho16; Dqrwkhu dujxphqw iru wkh uhodwlyho| ohvvhu lpsruwdqfh ri wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho lv wkdw wkh w|slfdo vl}h ri lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv
6; Dw wkh suhvhqw wlph ri zulwlqj/ krzhyhu/ lw vhhpv fohdu wr pdq| frpphqwdwruv wkdw lq0 whuqdwlrqdo lqyhvwruv duh dwwdfklqj d vljqlfdqw ulvn suhplxp wr wkh uhfhqwo| lqwurgxfhg hxur/ uhodwlyh wr wkh XV groodu1 Dv h{shulhqfh zlwk wkh hxur jurzv/ krzhyhu/ lw vhhpv dw ohdvw olnho| wkdw wklv ulvn suhplxp zloo odujho| glvvlsdwh1

5:

lv d yhu| wlq| iudfwlrq ri wrwdo iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw wxuqryhu16< 73 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ li wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho lv wdnhq vhulrxvo|/ wkhq dq lpsru0 wdqw vhfuhf| sx}}oh hphujhv= pdq| dfwxdo lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv lq wkh iru0 hljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw duh vhfuhw1 Jlyhq wkdw wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho lv h{shfwhg wr zrun wkurxjk dowhulqj wkh h{shfwdwlrqv ri rwkhu pdunhw djhqwv wkurxjk sro0 lf| dqqrxqfhphqwv e| prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv/ wklv lv vrphwklqj ri d sx}}oh zklfk kdv qrw |hw ehhq dghtxdwho| uhvroyhg lq wkh olwhudwxuh1 Zh frqmhfwxuhg deryh wkdw ixuwkhu dqdo|vlv ri vhfrqg0jhqhudwlrq fxuuhqf| fulvlv prghov pd| xowlpdwho| vkhg vrph oljkw rq wklv sx}}oh/ lq wkdw vhfuhf| pd| uh hfw dq dwwhpsw e| wkh dxwkrulwlhv wr dhfw wkh h{fkdqjh udwh wkurxjk wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho zlwkrxw wuljjhulqj d vhoi0ixooolqj dwwdfn rq wkh fxuuhqf|1 Jlyhq rxu frqfoxvlrq wkdw wkh sruwirolr edodqfh fkdqqho lv olnho| wr eh ri ohvv lpsruwdqfh wkdq wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho dqg lv olnho| wr ixuwkhu glplqlvk lq lpsruwdqfh lq wkh ixwxuh/ krzhyhu/ wklv udlvhv wkh lvvxh ri zkhwkhu ru qrw pdmru prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv duh lq idfw xvlqj wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq wrro rswlpdoo|1 Ixuwkhu zrun rq wklv lvvxh lv fohduo| uhtxluhg1 Ilqdoo|/ lw lv shukdsv zruwk phqwlrqlqj d wklug srvvleoh fkdqqho ri lq x0 hqfh iru lqwhuyhqwlrq zklfk kdv/ wr gdwh/ uhfhlyhg yhu| olwwoh dwwhqwlrq lq wkh olwhudwxuh1 Wklv lv wkurxjk lwv uroh lq uhphg|lqj d frruglqdwlrq idloxuh lq wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw1 Rqh zd| wr wklqn derxw wklv lv dv iroorzv1 Iluvw/ wkh iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw pd| eh vxemhfw wr luudwlrqdo vshfxodwlyh exeeohv eurxjkw derxw e| lpsruwdqw qrq0hfrqrplf idfwruv vxfk dv fkduwlvw ru whfkqlfdo dqdo|vlv zklfk duh nqrzq wr kdyh d vljqlfdqw hhfw rq wkh pdunhw dqg zklfk pd| lpsduw vzliw pryhphqwv ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh dzd| iurp wkh ohyho frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh xqghuo|lqj hfrqrplf ixqgdphqwdov +Iudqnho dqg Iurrw/ 4<<3> Wd|oru dqg Doohq/ 4<<5,1 Rqfh wkh h{fkdqjh udwh kdv pryhg d orqj zd| dzd| iurp wkh ixqgdphqwdo htxloleulxp/ lw pd| eh yhu| kdug iru lqglylgxdo pdunhw djhqwv wr dfw wr eulqj derxw d uhyhuvlrq ri wkh h{fkdqjh udwh/ hyhq wkrxjk wkh| pd| vwurqjo| eholhyh lw wr eh plvdoljqhg/ ehfdxvh ri d frruglqdwlrq idloxuh1 Li doo ri wkh vpduw prqh| wudghuv zhuh wr dfw vlpxowdqhrxvo| vr dv wr vhoo wkh fxuuhqf| zklfk lv ryhuydoxhg dffruglqj wr wkh hfrqrplf ixqgdphqwdov/ wkhq wkh exeeoh zrxog eh sulfnhg1 Lq sudfwlfh/ rqfh wkh h{fkdqjh udwh jhwv vwxfn lqwr d wuhqg 0 shukdsv ehfdxvh ri wkh zlghvsuhdg xvh ri wuhqg0iroorzlqj wudglqj uxohv +Wd|0 oru dqg Doohq/ 4<<5, 0 lw wdnhv d juhdw ghdo ri frxudjh iru dq lqglylgxdo wudghu wr dwwhpsw wr exfn wkh pdunhw1 Sxeolfo| dqqrxqfhg lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrqv
6< Zulwlqj lq wkh hduo| 4<<3v/ Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho +4<<6d/ ss1 ;;0<, dujxh wkdw/ dw '533 ploolrq grooduv shu gd|/ wkh w|slfdo lqwhuyhqwlrq rshudwlrq lv gzduihg e| wkh zruogzlgh yroxph ri wudglqj ri vrph '4/333 eloolrq1 73 Wkh ylhz wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq lv prvw hhfwlyh wkurxjk wkh vljqdoolqj fkdqqho dqg zkhq lw lv lqwhuqdwlrqdoo| frqfhuwhg dovr dsshduv wr eh d zlgho| khog ylhz ri srolf| pdnhuv dqg lq xhqwlxdo srolf| dgylvruv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ dw d suhvv frqihuhqfh rq Vhswhpehu 4< 5333/ khog dw wkh dqqxdo phhwlqjv ri wkh LPI dqg Zruog Edqn/ Plfkdho Pxvvd vdlg wkh iroorzlqj ri r!fldo lqwhuyhqwlrq= cLw grhv whqg wr eh vljqlfdqwo| pruh hhfwlyh zkhq wkdw lqwhuyhqwlrq lv frruglqdwhg dprqj wkh pdmru frxqwulhv dqg zkhq wkrvh frxqwulhv/ lq hhfw/ vhqg wkh vljqdo wkdw lw lv wkhlu mrlqw mxgjphqw wkdw pdunhwv kdyh wdnhq h{fkdqjh udwhv vxevwdqwldoo| dzd| iurp ixqgdphqwdov dqg wkdw vrph fruuhfwlrq lv zduudqwhg1 L wklqn lw dovr whqgv wr eh vljqlfdqwo| pruh hhfwlyh zkhq wkhuh lv vrph vljqdo wkdw prqhwdu| srolf| lq rqh ru pruh ri wkh pdmru duhdv lv olnho| wr eh vxssruwlyh ri wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq1*

5;

fdq khuh eh vhhq dv ixooolqj d frruglqdwlqj uroh lq wkdw wkh| pd| rujdql}h wkh vpduw prqh| wr hqwhu wkh pdunhw dw wkh vdph wlph1 Wklv urxwh iru wkh hi0 ihfwlyhqhvv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq pljkw eh whuphg wkh frruglqdwlrq fkdqqho1 Wkh plg04<;3v groodu ryhuydoxdwlrq surylghv d fohdu fdvh vwxg| ri wkh frruglqdwlrq fkdqqho= frqwhpsrudu| frpphqwdulhv uhyhdo d fohdu frqvhqvxv lq wkh groodu ryhuydoxdwlrq |hw lw dssduhqwo| wrrn wkh sxeolfo| dqqrxqfhg Sod}d Djuhhphqw ri wkh J8 frxqwulhv wr vxffhvvixoo| sxqfwxuh wkh exeeoh1 Wkh frruglqdwlrq fkdqqho lv lpsolflw lq Grplqjxh} dqg Iudqnho*v +4<<6d, glvfxvvlrq ri lqwhuyhqwlrq/ dqg eholhi lq lwv lpsruwdqfh dsshduv wr irup dq lp0 sruwdqw sduw ri srolf| pdnhuv* ylhzv rq lqwhuyhqwlrq +vhh h1j1 Zdgkzdql/ 5333> Fhffkhwwl/ Jhqehuj/ Olsvn| dqg Zdgkzdql/ 5333,1 Qhyhuwkhohvv/ lw kdv uhfhlyhg vfdqw dwwhqwlrq lq wkh dfdghplf olwhudwxuh wr gdwh1 Lq rxu ylhz/ ixuwkhu wkh0 ruhwlfdo dqg hpslulfdo zrun rq wkh frruglqdwlrq fkdqqho lv olnho| wr eh d yhu| lpsruwdqw dyhqxh iru ixwxuh uhvhdufk lq wklv duhd1

5<

Uhihuhqfhv Dgdpv/ Grqdog dqg Khqghuvrq/ Gdoh Z1 Ghqlwlrq dqg Phdvxuhphqw ri H{fkdqjh Pdunhw Lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Vwd Vwxglhv Qr1 459/ Erdug ri Jryhuqruv ri wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh V|vwhp/ Zdvklqjwrq/ G1F1/ 4<;61 Djhqru/0Slhuuh0Ulfkdug/ Fuhglelolw| dqg H{fkdqjh Udwh Pdqdjhphqw lq Ghyhorslqj Frxqwulhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Ghyhorsphqw Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<7/ 78/ ss1 40 491 Djqru/ Slhuuh0Ulfkdug> Ekdqgdul/ Mdjghhs V1 dqg Iorrg/ Urehuw S1 Vshf0 xodwlyh Dwwdfnv dqg Prghov ri Edodqfh ri Sd|phqwv Fulvhv/ Qdwlrqdo Exuhdx ri Hfrqrplf Uhvhdufk/ Zrunlqj Sdshu Qr1 6<4</ 4<<51 Frqghqvhg yhuvlrq sxeolvkhg lq Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| Ixqg Vwd Sdshuv/ 6</ ss1 68:06<71 Doohq/ Khohq O1 dqg Wd|oru/ Pdun S1 Fkduwv/ Qrlvh dqg Ixqgdphqwdov lq wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Pdunhw/ Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo/ 4<<3/ 433/ ss1 7<08< Dophnlqghuv/ Jhhuw M1 Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq1 Orqgrq= Hgzdug Hojdu/ 4<<81 Dophnlqghuv/ Jhhuw M1 dqg Hlm!qjhu/ V|oyhvwhu F1Z1 D Iulfwlrq Prgho ri Gdlo| Exqghvedqn dqg Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ Mrxuqdo ri Edqnlqj dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<9/ 53/ ss1 4698046;31 Dorjrvnrxv/ Jhrujh V1 Rq Lq dwlrq/ Hpsor|phqw dqg wkh Rswlpdo H{0 fkdqjh Udwh Uhjlph/ lq Kdqgerrn ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv1 Hg1= Iuhghulfn Ydq ghu Sorhj1 R{irug= Eodfnzhoo Sxeolvkhuv/ 4<<71 Duwlv/ Plfkdho M1 dqg Fxuulh/ Gdylg D1 Prqhwdu| Wdujhwv dqg wkh H{0 fkdqjh Udwh= D Fdvh iru Frqglwlrqdo Wdujhwlqj/ lq Wkh Prqh| Vxsso| dqg wkh H{fkdqjh Udwh1 Hgv1= Zdowhu Howlv dqg Shwhu M1Q1 Vlqfodlu1 R{irug= Foduhqgrq Suhvv/ 4<<41 Edfnxv/ Gdylg N1 dqg Nhkrh/ Sdwulfn M1 Rq wkh Ghqrplqdwlrq ri Jryhuq0 phqw Ghew= D Fulwltxh ri wkh Sruwirolr Edodqfh Dssurdfk/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv/ 4<;</ 56/ ss1 68<06:91 Edloolh/ Ulfkdug W1 dqg Rvwhuehuj/ Zlooldp S1 Fhqwudo Edqn Lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg Ulvn lq wkh Iruzdug Pdunhw/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<:/ 76/ ss1 7;607<:1 Edonh/ Qdwkdq V1 dqg Kdvodj/ Mrvhsk K1 D Wkhru| ri IHG Zdwfklqj lq d Pdfurhfrqrplf Srolf| Jdph/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4<<5/ 66/ ss1 94<095;1 Eduur/ Urehuw M1 Duh Jryhuqphqw Erqgv Qhw ZhdowkB/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ 4<:7/ ;5/ ss1 43<80444:1 Ekdqgdul/ Mdjghhs V1 +hg1, H{fkdqjh Udwh Pdqdjhphqw xqghu Xqfhuwdlqw|1 Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvv1 dqg Orqgrq= PLW Suhvv/ 4<;81 Ekdwwdfkdu|d/ Dpdu> Fodhvvhqv/ Vwlmq> Jkrvk/ Vzdwl> Khuqdqgh}/ Ohrqdugr/ dqg Doed/ Shgur1 Yrodwlolw| dqg Frqwdjlrq lq d Ilqdqfldoo|0lqwhjudwhg Zruog= Ohvvrqv iurp Hdvw Dvld*v Uhfhqw H{shulhqfh1 Sdshu suhvhqwhg dw wkh Fhq0 wuh iru Hfrqrplf Srolf| Uhvhdufk0Zruog Edqn Frqihuhqfh rq Ilqdqfldo Fulvhv= Frqwdjlrq dqg Pdunhw Yrodwlolw|/ Orqgrq/ Pd|/ 4<<;1 Ekdwwdfkdu|d/ Xwsdo dqg Zhoohu/ Sdxo1 Wkh Dgydqwdjh ri Klglqj Rqh*v Kdqg= Vshfxodwlrq dqg Fhqwudo Edqn Lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh 63

Pdunhw/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<:/ 6</ ss1 58405::1 Eodfn/ Vwdqoh| Z1 Wkh Hhfw ri Dowhuqdwlyh Lqwhuyhqwlrq Srolflhv rq wkh Yduldelolw| ri H{fkdqjh Udwhv= Wkh Kduurg Hhfw/ lq Mdjghhs V1 Ekdqgdul +hg1,/ rs1 flw1/ 4<;81 Erqvhu0Qhdo/ Fdwkhulqh> Uroh|/ Y1Ydqfh/ dqg Vhoorq/ Jrugrq K1/ Mu1/ Prq0 hwdu| Srolf| Dfwlrqv/ Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ dqg H{fkdqjh Udwhv= D Uhh{dplqdwlrq ri wkh Hpslulfdo Uhodwlrqvklsv Xvlqj Ihghudo Ixqgv Udwh Wdujhw Gdwd/ Mrxuqdo ri Exvlqhvv/ 4<<;/ :4/ ss1 47:04::1 Erqvhu0Qhdo/ Fdwkhulqh dqg Wdqqhu/ Johqq/ Fhqwudo Edqn Lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg wkh Yrodwlolw| ri Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Udwhv= Hylghqfh iurp wkh Rswlrqv Pdunhw/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<9/ 48/ ss1 ;860;:;1 Eudqvrq/ Zlooldp K1/ Pdfurhfrqrplf Ghwhuplqdqwv ri Uhdo H{fkdqjh Ulvn/ lq Pdqdjlqj Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Ulvn1 Hg1= Ulfkdug M1 Khuulqj1 Fdpeulgjh= Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<;61 Eudqvrq/ Zlooldp K1/ D Prgho ri H{fkdqjh Udwh Ghwhuplqdwlrq zlwk Sro0 lf| Uhdfwlrq= Hylghqfh iurp Prqwko| Gdwd/ lq Frqwhpsrudu| Pdfurhfrqrplf Prghoolqj1 Hgv1= Slhuuh Pdojudqjh dqg Slhuuh0Dodlq Pxhw1 R{irug= Edvlo Eodfnzhoo/ 4<;71 Eudqvrq/ Zlooldp K1> Kdowwxqhq/ Kdqqx dqg Pdvvrq/ Sdxo U1/ H{fkdqjh Udwhv lq wkh Vkruw Uxq= Wkh Groodu0Ghxwvfkh Pdun Udwh/ Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4<::/ 43/ 6<807351 Eudqvrq/ Zlooldp K1 dqg Khqghuvrq/ Gdoh Z1/ Wkh Vshflfdwlrq dqg Lq x0 hqfh ri Dvvhw Pdunhwv/ lq Kdqgerrn ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv1 Hgv1= Urqdog Z1 Mrqhv dqg Shwhu E1 Nhqhq1 Dpvwhugdp= Qruwk0Kroodqg/ Yro1 5/ ss1 :7<0;38/ 4<;81 Eu|dqw/ Udosk F1/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Frrshudwlrq lq wkh Pdnlqj ri Qdwlrqdo Pdfurhfrqrplf Srolflhv= Zkhuh Gr Zh VwdqgB/ lq Shwhu E1 Nhqhq +hg1,/ ss1 6<4077:/ 4<<81 Exlwhu/ Zloohp K1/ Fruvhwwl/ Jldqfduor P1 dqg Shvhqwl/ Sdror D1/ Lqwhusuhwlqj wkh HUP Fulvlv= Frxqwu|0vshflf dqg V|vwhplf Lvvxhv/ Sulqfhwrq Vwxglhv lq Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Ilqdqfh/ Qr1 ;71 Sulqfhwrq= Sulqfhwrq Xqlyhuvlw|/ Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Ilqdqfh Vhfwlrq/ 4<<;1 Exlwhu/ Zloohp K1 dqg Hdwrq/ Mrqdwkdq1 Srolf| Ghfhqwudol}dwlrq dqg H{0 fkdqjh Udwh Pdqdjhphqw lq Lqwhughshqghqw Hfrqrplhv/ lq Mdjghhs V1 Ekdq0 gdul +hg1,/ rs1 flw1/ 4<;81 Fdq}rqhul/ Pdwwkhz E1> Hwklhu/ Zloiuhg M1 dqg Julool/ Ylwwrulr +hgv1,/ Wkh Qhz Wudqvdwodqwlf Hfrqrp|/ Fdpeulgjh/ Qhz \run dqg Phoerxuqh= Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<<91 Fdwwh/ Slhwur/ Jdool/ Jldpsdror dqg Uhehffklql/ Vdoydwruh1 Frqfhuwhg Lq0 whuyhqwlrqv dqg wkh Groodu= Dq Dqdo|vlv ri Gdlo| Gdwd/ lq Wkh Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| V|vwhp1 Hgv1= Shwhu E1 Nhqhq/ Iudqfhvfr Sdsdgld/ dqg Ideul}lr Vdffrpdqql1 Fdpeulgjh= Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<<7/ ss1 534063<1 Fhffkhwwl/ Vwhskhq J1/ Jhqehuj/ Kdqv/ Olsvn|/ Mrkq/ dqg Zdgkzdql/ Vxvklo/ Dvvhw Sulfhv dqg Fhqwudo Edqn Srolf|1 Wkh Jhqhyd Uhsruw rq wkh Zruog Hfrq0 rp| Qr1 51 Orqgrq= Fhqwuh iru Hfrqrplf Srolf| Uhvhdufk dqg Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Fhqwuh iru Prqhwdu| dqg Edqnlqj Vwxglhv/ 53331 64

Fkdqj/ \xdqfkhq dqg Wd|oru/ Vwhskhq M1/ Lqwudgd| Hhfwv ri Iruhljq H{0 fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq e| wkh Edqn ri Mdsdq/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<;/ 4:/ ss1 4<405431 Fklqq/ Phq}lh G1/ Grroh|/ Plfkdho S1 dqg Vkuhvwkd/ Vrqd/ Odwlq Dphulfd dqg Hdvw Dvld lq wkh Frqwh{w ri dq Lqvxudqfh Prgho ri Fxuuhqf| Fulvhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<</ 4;/ ss1 98<04;41 Fodulgd/ Ulfkdug K1/ Jdol/ Mrugl dqg Jhuwohu/ Pdun/ Prqhwdu| Srolf| Uxohv lq Sudfwlfh= Vrph Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hylghqfh/ Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4<<;/ 75/ ss1 43660439:1 Fodulgd/ Ulfkdug K1/ Jdol/ Mrugl dqg Jhuwohu/ Pdun/ Wkh Vflhqfh ri Prq0 hwdu| Srolf|= D Qhz Nh|qhvldq Shuvshfwlyh/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Olwhudwxuh/ 4<<</ 6:/ ss1 499404:3:1 Frrshu/ Ulfkdug Q1/ Hfrqrplf Lqwhughshqghqfh dqg Frruglqdwlrq ri Hfr0 qrplf Srolflhv/ lq Kdqgerrn ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv1 Hgv1= Urqdog Z1 Mrqhv dqg Shwhu E1 Nhqhq1 Dpvwhugdp= Qruwk0Kroodqg/ Yro1 5/ 4<;81 Fruvhwwl/ Jldqfduor P1/ Shvhqwl/ Sdror D1/ dqg Urxelql/ Qrxulho/ Sdshu WljhuvB D Prgho ri wkh Dvldq Fulvlv/ Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4<<</ 76/ ss1 4544045691 Fxnlhupdq/ Doh{/ Fhqwudo Edqn Vwudwhj|/ Fuhglelolw| dqg Lqghshqghqfh/ Fdp0 eulgjh/ Pdvv1= PLW Suhvv/ 4<<51 Fxnlhupdq/ Doh{ dqg Phow}hu/ Doodq K1/ D Wkhru| ri Dpeljxlw|/ Fuhglelolw| dqg Lq dwlrq xqghu Glvfuhwlrq dqg Dv|pphwulf Lqirupdwlrq/ Hfrqrphwulfd/ 4<;9/ 87/ ss1 43<<0445;1 Ghehooh/ Jx|/ Fhqwudo Edqn Lqghshqghqfh= D Iuhh OxqfkB/ Zrunlqj Sd0 shu/ PLW/ 4<<61 Gh Orqj/ M1 Eudgirug/ Vkohlihu/ Dqguhl/ Vxpphuv/ Odzuhqfh K1 dqg Zdog0 pdqq/ Urehu M1/ Srvlwlyh Ihhgedfn Lqyhvwphqw Vwudwhjlhv dqg Ghvwdelol}lqj Udwlrqdo Vshfxodwlrq/ Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ 4<<3/ 78/ ss1 6:<06<81 Grplqjxh}/ Ndwku|q P1/ H{fkdqjh Udwh H!flhqf| dqg wkh Ehkdylru ri Lq0 whuqdwlrqdo Dvvhw Pdunhwv/ \doh Xqlyhuvlw|/ xqsxeolvkhg SkG wkhvlv/ 4<;:1 Grplqjxh}/ Ndwku|q P1/ Pdunhw Uhvsrqvhv wr Frruglqdwhg Fhqwudo Edqn Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ Fduqhjlh0Urfkhvwhu Frqihuhqfh Vhulhv lq Sxeolf Srolf|/ 4<<3/ 65/ ss1 45404961 Grplqjxh}/ Ndwku|q P1 dqg Iudqnho/ Mhuh| D1/ Grhv Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq ZrunB/ Zdvkqljwrq/ G1F1= Lqvwlwxwh iru Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<6d1 Grplqjxh}/ Ndwku|q P1 dqg Iudqnho/ Mhuh| D1/ Grhv Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq PdwwhuB Wkh Sruwirolr Hhfw/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ ;6/ ss1 46890469</ 4<<6e1 Grplqjxh}/ Ndwku|q P1 dqg Iudqnho/ Mhuh| D1/ Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Lqwhu0 yhqwlrq= Dq Hpslulfdo Dvvhvvphqw/ lq Rq H{fkdqjh Udwhv1 Hg1= Mhuh| D1 Iudqnho1 Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvv1= PLW Suhvv/ 4<<6f1 Grroh|/ Plfkdho dqg Shwhu Lvdug/ Wkh Sruwirolr0Edodqfh Prgho ri H{fkdqjh Udwhv dqg Vrph Vwuxfwxudo Hvwlpdwhv ri wkh Ulvn Suhplxp/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prq0 hwdu| Ixqg Vwd Sdshuv/ 4<;6/ 63/ ss1 9;60:351

65

Gruqexvfk/ Uxgljhu/ H{shfwdwlrqv dqg H{fkdqjh Udwh G|qdplfv/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ 4<:9/ ;7/ ss1 4494044:91 Hfrqrplvw Qhzvsdshu/ Wkh/ D Vxuyh| ri wkh Zruog Hfrqrp|= Zkr*v lq wkh Gulylqj VhdwB 0 Qrw0Vr0Glylqh Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ Rfwrehu :/ 4<<81 Hglvrq/ Kdol M1/ Wkh Hhfwlyhqhvv ri Fhqwudo0Edqn Lqwhuyhqwlrq= D Vxuyh| ri wkh Olwhudwxuh Diwhu 4<;5/ Vshfldo Sdshuv lq Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ Qr1 4;/ Sulqfhwrq Xqlyhuvlw|/ 4<<61 Hglvrq/ Kdol M1/ Oxdqjdudp/ Srqjvdn/ dqg Ploohu/ Pdufxv/ Dvvhw Exeeohv/ Grplqr Hhfwv dqg cOliherdwv*= Hohphqwv ri wkh Hdvw Dvldq Fulvlv/ sdshu suh0 vhqwhg dw wkh Fhqwhu iru Hfrqrplf Srolf| Uhvhdufk0Zruog Edqn Frqihuhqfh rq Ilqdqfldo Fulvhv= Frqwdjlrq dqg Pdunhw Yrodwlolw|/ Orqgrq/ Pd|/ 4<<;1 Hlfkhqjuhhq/ Eduu|/ Wrelq/ Mdphv dqg Z|sorv}/ Fkduohv/ Wzr Fdvhv iru Vdqg lq wkh Zkhhov ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Ilqdqfh/ Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo/ 438/ ss1 4950 4:5/ 4<<81 Hlfkhqjuhhq/ Eduu| dqg Z|sorv}/ Fkduohv/ Wkh Xqvwdeoh HPV/ Eurrnlqjv Sdshuv lq Hfrqrplf Dfwlylw|/ 4<<6/ 4/ ss1 8404761 Hlm!qjhu/ V|oyhvwhu F1Z +hg1,/ Lqghshqghqw Fhqwudo Edqnv dqg Hfrqrplf Shuirupdqfh/ Fkhowhqkdp= Hgzdug Hojdu Sxeolvklqj Owg1/ 4<<:1 Hlm!qjhu/ V|oyhvwhu F1Z1 dqg Juxlmwhuv/ Qrxg/ Rq wkh Vkruw Whup Remhf0 wlyhv ri Gdlo| Lqwhuyhqwlrq e| wkh Ghxwvfkh Exqghvedqn dqg wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh V|vwhp lq wkh XV Groodu2Ghxwvfkh Pdun H{fkdqjh Pdunhw/ Nuhglw dqg Fdslwdo/ 4<<4d/ 57/ ss1 830:51 Hlm!qjhu/ V|oyhvwhu F1Z1 dqg Juxlmwhuv/ Qrxg/ Rq wkh Hhfwlyhqhvv ri Gdlo| Lqwhuyhqwlrqv e| wkh Ghxwvfkh Exqghvedqn dqg wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh V|v0 whp lq XV Groodu2Ghxwvfkh Pdun H{fkdqjh Pdunhw/ lq H{fkdqjh Uhjlphv dqg Fxuuhqf| Xqlrq1 Hgv1= Edowhqvshujhu/ H1 dqg Vlqq/ K1Z1 Orqgrq= Pdfploodq/ ss1 4640489/ 4<<4e1 Hlm!qjhu/ V|oyhvwhu F1Z1 dqg Vfkdolqj/ Hulf/ Fhqwudo Edqn Lqghshqghqfh lq Wzhoyh Lqgxvwuldo Frxqwulhv/ Edqfd Qd}lrqdoh gho Odyrur Txduwhuo| Uhylhz/ 4<<6/ 4;7/ ss1 40741 Iodqguhdx/ Pduf/ Wkh Exughq ri Lqwhuyhqwlrq= H{whuqdolwlhv lq Pxowlodwhudo H{fkdqjh Udwhv Duudqjhphqwv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<;/ 78/ ss1 46:04:41 Iorrg/ Urehuw S1 dqg Jduehu/ Shwhu P1/ Froodsvlqj H{fkdqjh Udwh Uhjlphv= Vrph Olqhdu H{dpsohv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4<;7/ 49/ ss1 40 461 Iorrg/ Urehuw S1 dqg Jduehu/ Shwhu P1/ Wkh Olqndjh ehwzhhq Vshfxod0 wlyh Dwwdfn dqg Wdujhw ]rqh Prghov ri H{fkdqjh Udwhv/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<4/ 439/ ss1 469:046:51 Iorrg/ Urehuw S1/ Jduehu/ Shwhu P1 dqg Nudphu/ Fkduohv/ Froodsvlqj H{0 fkdqjh Udwh Uhjlphv= Dqrwkhu Olqhdu H{dpsoh/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfr0 qrplfv/ 4<<9/ 74/ ss1 55605671 Iorrg/ Urehuw S1/ Krgulfn/ Urehuw M1/ Lvdug/ Shwhu dqg Nudphu/ Fkduohv/ Hfrqrplf Prghov ri Vshfxodwlyh Dwwdfnv dqg wkh Gudfkpd Fulvlv ri Pd| 4<<7/ Rshq Hfrqrplhv Uhylhz/ 4<<9/ :/ ss1 8;608<51

66

Iorrg/ Urehuw S1 dqg Mhdqqh/ Rolylhu/ Dq Lqwhuhvw Udwh Ghihqvh ri d Il{hg H{fkdqjh Udwh/ Uhvhdufk Ghsduwphqw/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| Ixqg/ plphr/ 53331 Iorrg/ Urehuw S1 dqg Pdulrq/ Qdqf| S1/ Wkh Vl}h dqg Wlplqj ri Ghydo0 xdwlrqv lq Fdslwdo0Frqwuroohg Frxqwulhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Ghyhorsphqw Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<:d/ 87/ ss1 456047:1 Iorrg/ Urehuw S1 dqg Pdulrq/ Qdqf| S1/ Srolf| Lpsolfdwlrq ri Vhfrqg0 Jhqhudwlrq Fulvlv Prghov/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| Ixqg Vwd Sdshuv/ 4<<:e/ 77/ ss1 6;606<31 Iorrg/ Urehuw S1 dqg Pdulrq/ Qdqf| S1/ Vhoi0ixooolqj Ulvn Suhglfwlrqv= Dq Dssolfdwlrq wr Vshfxodwlyh Dwwdfnv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 5333/ 83/ ss1 578059;1 Iorrg/ Urehuw S1 dqg Pdulrq/ Qdqf| S1/ Shuvshfwlyhv rq wkh Uhfhqw Fxu0 uhqf| Fulvlv Olwhudwxuh/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh dqg Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<</ 7/ ss1 40591 Iudqnho/ Mhuh| D1/ Wkh Glyhuvldelolw| ri H{fkdqjh Ulvn/ Mrxuqdo ri Lq0 whuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4<:</ </ 6:<06<61 Uhsulqwhg lq Rq H{fkdqjh Udwhv1 Hg1= Mhuh| D1 Iudqnho1 Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvv1= PLW Suhvv/ 4<<61 Iudqnho/ Mhuh|1D1/ dqg Iurrw/ Nhqqhwk D1/ Fkduwlvwv/ Ixqgdphqwdolvwv dqg wkh Ghpdqg iru Grooduv/ lq Dqwkrq|1V1 Frxudnlv dqg Pdun1S1 Wd|oru +hgv1, Sul0 ydwh Ehkdylrxu dqg Jryhuqphqw Srolflhv lq Lqwhughshqghqw Hfrqrplhv/ R{irug= R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<<31 Iulhgpdq/ Plowrq/ Wkh Fdvh iru Ioh{leoh H{fkdqjh Udwhv/ lq Hvvd|v lq Srvlwlyh Hfrqrplfv1 Hg1= Plowrq Iulhgpdq1 Fklfdjr= Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fklfdjr Suhvv/ ss1 48:0536/ 4<861 Jduehu/ Shwhu P1 dqg Vyhqvvrq/ Oduv H1R1/ Wkh Rshudwlrq dqg Froodsvh ri Il{hg H{fkdqjh Udwh Uhjlphv/ lq Kdqgerrn ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv1 Hgv1= Jhqh P1 Jurvvpdq dqg Nhqqhwk Urjr1 Dpvwhugdp/ Qhz \run dqg R{irug= Hovhylhu/ Qruwk0Kroodqg/ Yro1 6/ ss1 4;9804<44/ 4<<81 Jduehu/ Shwhu P1 dqg Wd|oru/ Pdun S1/ Vdqg lq wkh Zkhhov ri Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Pdunhwv= D Vfhswlfdo Qrwh/ Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo/ 4<<8/ 438/ ss1 4:60 ;31 Jkrvk/ Dwlvk U1/ Lv Lw VljqdoolqjB H{fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg wkh Groodu0 Ghxwvfkhpdun Udwh/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<5/ 65/ ss1 5340 5531 Jolfn/ Uhxyhq +hg1,/ Pdqdjlqj Fdslwdo Iorzv dqg H{fkdqjh Udwhv= Shuvshf0 wlyhv iurp wkh Sdflf Edvlq/ Fdpeulgjh= Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<<;1 Jolfn/ Uhxyhq dqg Kxwfklvrq/ Plfkdho P1/ H{fkdqjh Udwhv dqg Prqhwdu| Srolf|/ Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Edqn ri Vdq Iudqflvfr Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4<;</ 3+5,/ ss1 4:05<1 Kxl}lqjd/ Kduu|/ Uhdo H{fkdqjh Udwh Plvdoljqphqw dqg Uhglvwulexwlrq/ Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4<<:/ 74/ ss1 58<05::1 Kxpsdjh/ Rzhq I1/ Uhfhqw X1V1 Lqwhuyhqwlrq= Lv Ohvv PruhB/ Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Edqn ri Fohyhodqg Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4<<:/ 66/ ss1 50431 Kxpsdjh/ Rzhq I1 dqg Rvwhuehuj/ Zlooldp S1/ Lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Ulvn Suhplxp= Dq Hpslulfdo Lqyhvwljdwlrq ri Gdlo| Hhfwv/ Joredo 67

Ilqdqfh Mrxuqdo/ 4<<3/ 6/ ss1 560831 Lvdug/ Shwhu/ H{fkdqjh Udwh Hfrqrplfv/ Fdpeulgjh= Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<<81 Mhdqqh/ Rolylhu/ Ohv Prghohv gh Fulvh gh Fkdqjh= Xq Hvvdl gh V|qwkhvh hq Uhodwlrq Dyhf od Fulvh gx Iudqf gh 4<<504<<6/ +H{fkdqjh Udwh Fulvlv Prghov= D Vxppdu| Irfxvlqj rq wkh 4<<504<<6 Iuhqfk Iudqf Fulvlv1 Zlwk Hqjolvk vxppdu|,/ Hfrqrplh hw Suhylvlrq/ 4<<9/ 3+4560457,/ ss1 47:04951 Mhdqqh/ Rolylhu/ Duh Fxuuhqf| Fulvhv Vhoi0IxooolqjB D Whvw/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<:/ 76/ ss1 59605;91 Mxujhqvhq/ Sklolssh/ Uhsruw ri wkh Zrunlqj Jurxs rq H{fkdqjh Pdunhw Lqwhuyhqwlrq ^Mxujhqvhq Uhsruw`/ Zdvklqjwrq/ Wuhdvxu| Ghsduwphqw/ Pdufk/ 4<;61 Nduidnlv/ Frvwdv dqg Nlp/ Vxn0Mrrqj/ H{fkdqjh Udwhv/ Lqwhuhvw Udwhv dqg Fxuuhqw Dffrxqw Qhzv= Vrph Hylghqfh iurp Dxvwudold/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqd0 wlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<8/ 47/ ss1 8:808<81 Ndplqvn|/ Judflhod O1 dqg Ohzlv/ Nduhq N1/ Grhv Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Lq0 whuyhqwlrq Vljqdo Ixwxuh Prqhwdu| Srolf|B/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<9/ 6:/ ss1 5;806451 Nhqhq/ Shwhu E1/ Eulwlvk Prqhwdu| Srolf| dqg wkh Edodqfh ri Sd|phqwv/ 4<8404<8:/ Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvv1= Kduydug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<931 Nhqhq/ Shwhu E1/ Wudgh/ Vshfxodwlrq dqg wkh Iruzdug H{fkdqjh Udwh/ lq Wudgh/ Jurzwk dqg wkh Edodqfh ri Sd|phqwv1 Hgv1= Ulfkdug Edogzlq H1 hw do11 Fklfdjr= Udqg PfQdoo|/ ss1 476049</ 4<981 Uhsulqwhg lq Shwhu E1 Nhqhq/ rs1 flw1/ 4<;31 Nhqhq/ Shwhu E1/ Hvvd|v lq Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ Sulqfhwrq/ QM= Sulqfh0 wrq Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<;31 Nhqhq/ Shwhu E1/ Hhfwv ri Lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg Vwhulol}dwlrq lq wkh Vkruw Uxq dqg lq wkh Orqj Uxq/ lq Wkh Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| V|vwhp Xqghu Ioh{leoh H{fkdqjh Udwhv= Joredo/ Uhjlrqdo/ dqg Qdwlrqdo= Hvvd|v lq Krqru ri Urehuw Wul!q1 Hgv1= Ulfkdug Q1 Frrshu/ Shwhu E1 Nhqhq/ Mrujh Eudjd gh Pdfhgr/ Mdftxhv ydq \shuvhoh1 Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvv1= Edoolqjhu/ 4<;51 Nhqhq/ Shwhu E1/ Pdqdjlqj H{fkdqjh Udwhv/ Fkdwkdp Krxvh Sdshuv/ Orq0 grq= Urxwohgjh/ 4<;;1 Nhqhq/ S1E1 +hg1,/ Xqghuvwdqglqj Lqwhughshqghqfh= Wkh Pdfurhfrqrplfv ri wkh Rshq Hfrqrp|/ Sulqfhwrq/ QM= Sulqfhwrq Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<<81 Nh|qhv/ Mrkq P1/ D Wudfw rq Prqhwdu| Uhirup/ Orqgrq= PdfPloodq/ 4<561 Nrxul/ Shqwwl M1N1 dqg Sruwhu/ Plfkdho J1/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Fdslwdo Iorzv dqg Sruwirolr Htxloleulxp/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ 4<:7/ ;5/ ss1 776079:1 Nuxjpdq/ Sdxo/ D Prgho ri Edodqfh ri Sd|phqwv Fulvhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqh|/ Fuhglw dqg Edqnlqj/ 4<:</ 44/ ss1 64406581 Nuxjpdq/ Sdxo/ Zkdw Kdsshqhg wr DvldB/ Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv/ Pdvvdfkxvhwwv Lqvwlwxwh ri Whfkqrorj|/ plphr/ 4<<;1 Ohdk|/ Plfkdho S1/ Wkh Surwdelolw| ri XV Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Il0 qdqfh Glvfxvvlrq Sdshuv/ Qr1 676/ Erdug ri Jryhuqruv ri wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh V|vwhp/ Zdvklqjwrq/ G1F1/ 4<;<1

68

OhEdurq/ Eodnh/ Whfkqlfdo Wudglqj Uxoh Surwdelolw| dqg Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ Qdwlrqdo Exuhdx ri Hfrqrplf Uhvhdufk Zrunlqj Sdshu= 8838/ Pdufk/ sdjhv 47/ 4<<91 Ohzlv/ Nduhq N1/ Duh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg Prqhwdu| Srolf| Uhodwhg dqg Grhv Lw Uhdoo| PdwwhuB/ Mrxuqdo ri Exvlqhvv/ 4<<8/ 9;/ ss1 4;80 5471 Pdun/ Qhovrq F1 Dq Lqwurgxfwlrq wr Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Pdfurhfrqrplfv dqg Il0 qdqfh= Wkhru| dqg Hfrqrphwulf Phwkrgv/ 5333/ iruwkfrplqj1 PfNlqqrq/ Urqdog L1 dqg Sloo/ Kxz/ Fuhgleoh Olehudol}dwlrqv dqg Lqwhuqd0 wlrqdo Fdslwdo Iorzv= Wkh Ryhueruurzlqj V|qgurph/ lq Ilqdqfldo Ghuhjxod0 wlrq dqg Lqwhjudwlrq lq Hdvw Dvld1 Hgv= Wdndwrvkl Lwr dqg Dqqh R1 Nuxhjhu1 Fklfdjr Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ Fklfdjr/ 4<<91 Pxvvd/ Plfkdho/ Wkh Uroh ri R!fldo Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ Qhz \run/ Jurxs ri Wkluw|/ 4<;41 Qhho|/ Fkulvwrskhu M1 +4<<;,/ Whfkqlfdo Dqdo|vlv dqg wkh Surwdelolw| ri X1V1 Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Edqn ri Vw1 Orxlv Uhylhz/ ;3/ Mxo|0Dxj1/ ss1 604:1 Qhho|/ Fkulvwrskhu M1 +5334,/ Wkh Sudfwlfh ri Fhqwudo Edqn Lqwhuyhqwlrq= Orrnlqj Xqghu wkh Krrg/ Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Edqn ri Vw1 Orxlv Uhylhz/ iruwk0 frplqj1 Revwihog/ Pdxulfh/ Fdq Zh Vwhulol}hB Wkhru| dqg Hylghqfh/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz Sdshuv dqg Surfhhglqjv/ 4<;5/ :5/ ss1 780831 Revwihog/ Pdxulfh/ Wkh Hhfwlyhqhvv ri Iruhljq0H{fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq= Uhfhqw H{shulhqfh= 4<;804<;;/ lq Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Srolf| Frruglqdwlrq dqg H{0 fkdqjh Udwh Ioxfwxdwlrqv1 Hgv1= Zlooldp K1 Eudqvrq/ Mhuh| D1 Iuhqnho/ dqg Pruulv Jrogvwhlq1 Fklfdjr= Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fklfdjr Suhvv/ 4<<31 Revwihog/ Pdxulfh/ Wkh Orjlf ri Fxuuhqf| Fulvhv/ Fdklhuv Hfrqrpltxhv hw Prqhwdluhv/ 4<<7/ 76/ ss1 4;<05461 Revwihog/ Pdxulfh/ Prghov ri Fxuuhqf| Fulvlv zlwk Vhoi0Ixooolqj Ihdwxuhv/ Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4<<9/ 73/ ss1 436:0437;1 Revwihog/ Pdxulfh dqg Urjr/ Nhqqhwk/ H{fkdqjh Udwh G|qdplfv Uhgx{/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ 4<<8/ 436/ ss1 95709931 Revwihog/ Pdxulfh dqg Urjr/ Nhqqhwk/ Irxqgdwlrqv ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Pdfurh0 frqrplfv/ Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvv= PLW Suhvv/ 4<<91 Sloehdp/ Nhlwk/ H{fkdqjh Udwh Pdqdjhphqw/ Orqgrq= Pdfploodq/ 4<<41 Uhhyhv/ Vlonh0Ideldq/ H{fkdqjh Udwh Pdqdjhphqw Zkhq Vwhulol}hg Lqwhu0 yhqwlrqv Uhsuhvhqw Vljqdov ri Prqhwdu| Srolf|/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Uhylhz ri Hfr0 qrplfv dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<:/ 9/ ss1 66<06931 Uhhyhv/ Vlonh0Ideldq/ Sduwldo Fuhglelolw|/ Lqirupdwlrq Vhohfwlrq dqg wkh Vlj0 qdoolqj Fkdqqho ri Vwhulol}hg Lqwhuyhqwlrqv/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Lqwhjudwlrq/ 4<<;/ 46/ ss1 43;04631 Urjr/ Nhqqhwk/ Rq wkh Hhfwv ri Vwhulol}hg Lqwhuyhqwlrq= Dq Dqdo|vlv ri Zhhno| Gdwd/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv/ 4<;7/ 47/ ss1 46604831 Urjr/ Nhqqhwk/ Wkh Rswlpdo Ghjuhh ri Frpplwphqw wr dq Lqwhuphgldwh Prqhwdu| Wdujhw/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ 4<;8/ 433/ ss1 449<044;<1

69

Urqfl/ Pduflr dqg Wxoolr/ Jlxvhssh/ Eudvloldq Lq dwlrq iurp 4<;3 wr 4<<6= Fdxvhv/ Frqvhtxhqfhv dqg G|qdplfv/ Mrxuqdo ri Odwlq Dphulfdq Vwxglhv/ 4<<9/ 5;/ ss1 96809981 Urxelql/ Qrxulho/ Rvhw dqg Vwhulol}dwlrq Xqghu Il{hg H{fkdqjh Udwhv zlwk dq Rswlpl}lqj Fhqwudo Edqn/ Qdwlrqdo Exuhdx ri Hfrqrplf Uhvhdufk Zrunlqj Sdshu Q1 5:::/ 4<;;1 Vduqr/ Oxflr dqg Wd|oru/ Pdun S1/ Prudo Kd}dug/ Dvvhw Sulfh Exeeohv/ Fdslwdo Iorzv/ dqg wkh Hdvw Dvldq Fulvlv= Wkh Iluvw Whvwv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhu0 qdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<</ 4;/ ss1 96:098:1 Vwhlq/ Mhuhp| F1/ Lqirupdwlrqdo H{whuqdolwlhv dqg Zhoiduh0uhgxflqj Vshfx0 odwlrq/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ 4<;:/ <8/ ss1 4567045781 Vwhlq/ Mhuhp| F1/ Fkhds Wdon dqg wkh Ihg= D Wkhru| ri Lpsuhflvh Srolf| Dqqrxqfhphqwv/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4<;</ :</ ss1 650751 Vzhhqh|/ Ulfkdug M1/ Gr Fhqwudo Edqnv Orvh rq Iruhljq0H{fkdqjh Lqwhu0 yhqwlrqB D Uhylhz Duwlfoh/ Mrxuqdo ri Edqnlqj dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<:/ 54/ ss1 499:049;71 V}dnpdu|/ Dqguhz F1 dqg Pdwkxu/ Lnh/ Fhqwudo Edqn Lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg Wudglqj Uxoh Surwv lq Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Pdunhwv/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<:/ 49/ ss1 84608681 Wdndjl/ Vklqml/ Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Pdunhw Lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg Grphvwlf Prq0 hwdu| Frqwuro lq Mdsdq/ 4<:604<;</ Mdsdq dqg wkh Zruog Hfrqrp|/ 4<<4/ 6/ ss1 47:04;31 Wd|oru/ Pdun1 S1/ Vwhulol}hg Lqwhuyhqwlrq/ lq Pxuud| Plojdwh/ Shwhu Qhz0 pdq dqg Mrkq Hdwzhoo +hgv1, Wkh Qhz Sdojudyh Glfwlrqdu| ri Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ Orqgrq= PdfPloodq/ 4<<51 Wd|oru/ Pdun S1/ Wkh Hfrqrplfv ri H{fkdqjh Udwhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Olwhudwxuh/ 4<<8/ ;6/ ss1 4607:1 Wd|oru/ Pdun1S1/ dqg Khohq O1 Doohq +4<<5,/ Wkh Xvh ri Whfkqlfdo Dqdo|vlv lq wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Pdunhw/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<5/ 44/ ss1 63706471 Wrelq/ Mdphv/ D Jhqhudo Htxloleulxp Dssurdfk wr Prqhwdu| Wkhru|/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqh|/ Fuhglw dqg Edqnlqj/ 4<9</ 4/ ss1 4805<1 Wu|rq/ Udosk Z1/ Vpdoo Hpslulfdo Prghov ri H{fkdqjh Pdunhw Lqwhuyhqwlrq= D Uhylhz ri wkh Olwhudwxuh/ Vwd Vwxglhv 467/ Erdug ri Jryhuqruv ri wkh Ihghudo Uvhuyh V|vwhp/ Zdvklqjwrq/ G1F1/ 4<;61 Wxoolr/ Jlxvhssh dqg Urqfl/ Pduflr/ Fhqwudo Edqn Dxwrqrp|/ wkh H{0 fkdqjh Udwh Frqvwudlqw dqg Lq dwlrq= Wkh Fdvh ri Lwdo|/ Rshq Hfrqrplhv Uhylhz/ 4<<:/ 4/ ss1 6407<1 Wxoolr/ Jlxvhssh dqg Qdwdury/ Ylfwru/ Gdlo| Lqwhuyhqwlrqv e| wkh Fhqwudo Edqn ri Uxvvld lq wkh Wuhdvxu| Eloo Pdunhw/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh dqg Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<</ 6/ ss1 55<05741 Wxuqryvn|/ Vwhskhq M1/ Rswlpdo Prqhwdu| Srolf| dqg Zdjh Lqgh{dwlrq Xq0 ghu Dowhuqdwlyh Glvwxuedqfhv dqg Lqirupdwlrq Vwuxfwxuhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqh|/ Fuhglw dqg Edqnlqj/ 4<;:/ 4</ ss1 48:04;31 Ylwdoh/ Sdror/ Vwhulol}hg Fhqwudo Edqn Lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Pdunhw/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<<d/ 7</ ss1 578059:1 6:

Ylwdoh/ Sdror/ Vshfxodwlyh Qrlvh Wudglqj dqg Pdqlsxodwlrq lq wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Pdunhw/ Ilqdqfldo Pdunhwv Jurxs/ Orqgrq Vfkrro ri Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<<e/ plphr1 Ylwdoh/ Sdror/ Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Lqwhuyhqwlrq dqg Pdfurhfrqrplf Vwdelo0 lw|/ Ilqdqfldo Pdunhwv Jurxs/ Orqgrq Vfkrro ri Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<<f/ plphr1 Zdgkzdql/ Vxvklo/ Wkh H{fkdqjh Udwh dqg wkh Prqhwdu| Srolf| Frpplw0 whh= Zkdw Fdq Zh GrB Vshhfk gholyhuhg wr wkh Vhqlru Exvlqhvv Iruxp dw whk Fhqwuh iru Hfrqrplf Shuirupdqfh/ 64 Pd| 53331 Zh|pdun/ Gldqd Q1/ Phdvxulqj wkh Ghjuhh ri H{fkdqjh Pdunhw Lqwhuyhq0 wlrq lq d Vpdoo Rshq Hfrqrp|/ Mrxuqdo ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqh| dqg Ilqdqfh/ 4<<:d/ 49/ ss1 880:<1 Zh|pdun/ Gldqd Q1/ Phdvxulqj H{fkdqjh Pdunhw Suhvvxuh dqg Lqwhuyhq0 wlrq lq Lqwhughshqghqw Hfrqrplhv= D Wzr0Frxqwu| Prgho/ Uhylhz ri Lqwhuqd0 wlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4<<:e/ 8/ ss1 :50;51 Zlkoeruj/ Fodv/ Iudwldqql/ Plfkhoh dqg Zloohww/ Wkrpdv G1 +hgv1,/ Ilqdqfldo Uhjxodwlrq dqg Prqhwdu| Duudqjhphqwv Diwhu 4<<51 Frqwulexwlrqv wr Hfrqrplf Dqdo|vlv1 Dpvwhugdp/ Orqgrq/ Qhz \run dqg Wrn|r= Qruwk0Kroodqg/ Yro1 537/ 4<<41 Zlooldpvrq/ Mrkq/ Wkh Idloxuh ri Zruog Prqhwdu| Uhirup 4<:40:7/ Orqgrq= Qhovrq/ 4<::1

6;