Receipt Model Forecast

% Change in Nominal Tax Base Proxy
2008
2009
2010
12
1.00
12
1.00
12
1.00
0.00
18.00%
0.00
2.00%
0.00
37.00%
Month Number
Actual Data Available?
2008
JAN
Jan-08
1
1
2008
FEB
Feb-08
2
1
2008
MAR
Mar-08
3
1
AVG EFF. TAX RATE RATIO
1.00
1.00
1.00
MONTHLY COLLECTION (N'billion)
27.84
28.33
28.03
CUM. ANNUAL RECEIPTS

CUM. ANNUAL GROWTH
27.84
0.00%
56.17
0.00%
84.20
0.00%
WEIGHTED AVG GROWTH
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
ACT & BASELINE PROJ.
27.84
28.33
28.03
No. of Months Data Available

Weight Alpha
AVG. TAX BASE ELAST.
GDP GROWTH
in Crores Rs
COMPANIES INCOME TAX
EXCISE TAX RECEIPTS

Monthly Tax Collections
Tax Base Proxy

2011
12
1.00
0.00
10.00%
2008
APR
Apr-08
4
1
2008
MAY
May-08
5
1
2008
JUN
Jun-08
6
1
2008
JUL
Jul-08
7
1
2008
AUG
Aug-08
8
1
2008
SEP
Sep-08
9
1
2008
OCT
Oct-08
10
1
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
30.42
26.66
36.82
47.06
36.16
33.06
41.48
114.62
0.00%
141.28
0.00%
178.10
0.00%
225.16
0.00%
261.32
0.00%
294.38
0.00%
335.86
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
30.42
26.66
36.82
47.06
36.16
33.06
41.48
EXCISE TA
Monthly Ta
2008
2009
2010
2011
12
1.00
12
1.00
12
1.00
12
1.00
0.00
18.00%
0.00
2.00%
0.00
37.00%
0.00
10.00%
2008
NOV
Nov-08
11
1
2008
DEC
Dec-08
12
1
2009
JAN
Jan-09
1
1
2009
FEB
Feb-09
2
1
2009
MAR
Mar-09
3
1
2009
APR
Apr-09
4
1
2009
MAY
May-09
5
1
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
52.29
30.39
38.87
32.28
29.30
35.32
40.81
388.15
0.00%
418.53
0.00%
38.87
0.00%
71.15
0.00%
100.45
0.00%
135.77
0.00%
176.58
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
52.29
30.39
38.87
32.28
29.30
35.32
40.81
EXCISE TAX RECEIPTS

%C
2009
JUN
Jun-09
6
1
2009
JUL
Jul-09
7
1
2009
AUG
Aug-09
8
1
2009
SEP
Sep-09
9
1
2009
OCT
Oct-09
10
1
2009
NOV
Nov-09
11
1
2009
DEC
Dec-09
12
1
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
65.80
68.32
58.08
51.08
78.11
53.29
38.36
242.38
0.00%
310.69
0.00%
368.78
0.00%
419.86
0.00%
497.97
0.00%
551.26
0.00%
589.62
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
65.80
68.32
58.08
51.08
78.11
53.29
38.36
EXCISE TAX RECEIPTS

2008
2009
2010
2011
12
1.00
12
1.00
12
1.00
12
1.00
0.00
18.00%
0.00
2.00%
0.00
37.00%
0.00
10.00%
2010
JAN
Jan-10
1
1
2010
FEB
Feb-10
2
1
2010
MAR
Mar-10
3
1
2010
APR
Apr-10
4
1
2010
MAY
May-10
5
1
2010
JUN
Jun-10
6
1
2010
JUL
Jul-10
7
1
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
47.31
42.72
41.12
49.50
43.05
56.35
61.70
47.31
0.00%
90.03
0.00%
131.15
0.00%
180.66
0.00%
223.70
0.00%
280.06
0.00%
341.76
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
47.31
42.72
41.12
49.50
43.05
56.35
61.70
ECEIPTS
ollections
% Change in Nominal Tax Bas

2008
2009
12
1.00
12
1.00
0.00
18.00%
0.00
2.00%
2010
AUG
Aug-10
8
1
2010
SEP
Sep-10
9
1
2010
OCT
Oct-10
10
1
2010
NOV
Nov-10
11
1
2010
DEC
Dec-10
12
1
2011
JAN
Jan-11
1
1
2011
FEB
Feb-11
2
1
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
67.58
72.50
67.64
60.22
44.68
409.34
0.00%
481.84
0.00%
549.48
0.00%
609.70
0.00%
654.38
0.00%
36.34
0.00%
77.46
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
67.58
72.50
67.64
60.22
44.68
36.34
41.13
36.34
41.13
EXCISE TAX RECEIPTS

e in Nominal Tax Base Proxy

2010
2011
12
1.00
12
1.00
0.00
37.00%
0.00
10.00%
2011
MAR
Mar-11
3
1
2011
APR
Apr-11
4
1
2011
MAY
May-11
5
1
2011
JUN
Jun-11
6
1
2011
JUL
Jul-11
7
1
2011
AUG
Aug-11
8
1
2011
SEP
Sep-11
9
1
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
47.68
48.04
46.19
69.64
88.13
70.32
69.85
125.15
0.00%
173.18
0.00%
219.37
0.00%
289.01
0.00%
377.14
0.00%
447.47
0.00%
517.32
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
47.68
48.04
46.19
69.64
88.13
70.32
69.85
2011
OCT
Oct-11
10
1
2011
NOV
Nov-11
11
1
2011
DEC
Dec-11
12
1
2012
JAN
Jan-12
1
1
2012
FEB
Feb-12
2
1
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
70.56
50.05
41.08
41.08
41.08
587.88
0.00%
637.93
0.00%
679.01
0.00%
41.08
0.00%
82.16
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
70.56
50.05
41.08
41.08
41.08
2012
MAR
Mar-12
3
0
2012
APR
Apr-12
4
0
2012
MAY
May-12
5
0
2012
JUN
Jun-12
6
0
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
47.68
48.04
46.19
69.64
100.00
90.00
80.00
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
2012
JUL
Jul-12
7
0
2012
AUG
Aug-12
8
0
2012
SEP
Sep-12
9
0
2012
OCT
Oct-12
10
0
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
88.13
70.32
69.85
70.56
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
2012
NOV
Nov-12
11
0
2012
DEC
Dec-12
12
0
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
50.05
41.08
683.70
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR

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% Change in Nominal Tax Base Proxy

AVG EFF. TAX RATE RATIO

MONTHLY COLLECTION (N'billion)

CUM. ANNUAL RECEIPTS

WEIGHTED AVG GROWTH

ACT & BASELINE PROJ.

No. of Months Data Available

COMPANIES INCOME TAX

EXCISE TAX RECEIPTS

Tax Base Proxy

EXCISE TAX RECEIPTS

EXCISE TAX RECEIPTS

% Change in Nominal Tax Bas

EXCISE TAX RECEIPTS

e in Nominal Tax Base Proxy

ACT & BASELINE PROJ.

ACT & BASELINE PROJ.

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