Taller # 7

Caculo del MTBF

Datos de falla del siguiente Equipo son: 30, 31, 14, 2, 2
25, 22, 7 en dias.
Calcular
Calcular el MTBF y la rata de falla

Cual es la probabilidad que falle antes de las 200 horas.

Cual es la confiabilidad en 300 horas.

Si el costo de la falla es de Col$ 26670.000 y el costos

mantto preventivo es de $ 1590.000, cual es el tiem
ptimo para hacer el mantenimiento?.

Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial

MTBF =

1
Rata de falla

Tiempo

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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14
15
16
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51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68

1.0000
Exponencial
#MACRO?
0.14
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

69
70
71
72
73
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80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Simulacin por Monte Carlo de Confiabilidad Exponencial

A : distribucion exponencial con MTTF=137 dias
landa = 1/137 = 0.0073
Landa=
s
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
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46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68

Aleatorio

0.053
0.311
0.479
0.295
0.053
0.330
0.638
0.547
0.687
0.204
0.691
0.748
0.824
0.115
0.363
0.505
0.056
0.476
0.766
0.838
0.971
0.366
0.527
0.909
0.919
0.127
0.855
0.043
0.110
0.750
0.732
0.163
0.060
0.211
0.457
0.114
0.541
0.095
0.661
0.227
0.299
0.352
0.975
0.123
0.467
0.338
0.628
0.524
0.814
0.393
0.362
0.785
0.759
0.889
0.694
0.678
0.015
0.549
0.720
0.126
0.299
0.452
0.288
0.360
0.663
0.746
0.474
0.203

0
Exponencial
795.33
316.03
198.65
330.34
791.98
300.01
121.42
162.93
101.63
430.12
99.75
78.56
52.35
584.99
273.96
184.89
777.31
200.68
72.21
47.64
7.94
271.72
173.21
25.76
22.96
558.72
42.20
853.30
596.30
77.78
84.47
490.56
758.15
420.42
211.41
587.20
166.22
634.79
111.84
400.51
326.19
281.81
6.85
566.32
205.61
293.27
125.92
174.84
55.69
252.34
274.59
65.48
74.52
31.84
98.75
105.19
1127.90
161.88
88.73
560.92
326.02
214.79
336.12
276.27
111.16
79.30
201.95
430.41

Aleatorios

X= (-1/landa)*{ln (aleatorio)}

Exponencial

1.000

0.900

0.800

0.700

0.600

0.500

0.400

0.300

0.200

0.100

0.000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

s
Exponencial
Aleatorio
69
0.841
46.73
70
0.135
541.60
71
0.431
227.71
72
0.140
530.72
73
0.487
194.29
74
0.406
243.89
75
0.263
360.60
76
0.955
12.55
77
0.743
80.12
78
0.891
31.21
79
0.478
199.34
80
0.557
158.03
81
0.284
340.15
82
0.840
47.02
83
0.342
289.90
84
0.043
849.82
85
0.729
85.35
86
0.036
898.16
87
0.721
88.53
88
0.745
79.71
89
0.585
144.71
90
0.441
221.38
91
0.870
37.61
92
0.885
33.10
93
0.893
30.73
94
0.158
497.94
95
0.245
380.64
96
0.555
158.98
97
0.904
27.23
98
0.718
89.45
99
0.759
74.62
100
0.745
79.42
Probabilidad de0.85
Funcionamiento (%)=
0.19
0.89

Exponencial

1.000

0.900

0.800

0.700

0.600

0.500

0.400

0.300

0.200

0.100

0.000

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

al
Aleatorios

Exponencial

00

Exponencial

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

Exponencial

00

Exponencial

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

Calculo de la Confiabilidad Distribucion exponencial
CALCULO DE CONFIABILIDAD

MTBF (dias)=

TIEMPO

365.00

Rata de falla =

0.002740

Tiempo
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1,000
Reliability
0.01
0.1
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.99

Probabilidad falla
1.0000
.9864
.9730
.9597
.9467
.9338
.9211
.9086
.8962
.0646
Dias
1,681
840
253
186
130
81
38
4

Reliability
.0000
.0136
.0270
.0403
.0533
.0662
.0789
.0914
.1038
.9354
FFI
722.70
657.00
365.00
292.00
219.00
146.00
73.00
7.30

0.73

CALCULOS DE CONFIABILIDAD - METODO DE DISTRIBUCION EXPONENCIAL

R=1 - EXP^(-t/MTBF)

40
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160
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360
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480
520
560
600
640
680
720
760
800
840
880
920
960
1,000

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

1,040
1,080
1,120
1,160
1,200
1,240
1,280

CALCULOS DE MANTENIBILIDAD, FAILURE-FINDING TASK

FFI=2*(1-R)*MTBF

CONFIABILIDAD DESEADA

98%

TIEMPO PARA ENCONTRAR FALLA RONDA OPERATIVA

14.6

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREDICTIVO R=80%

81

TIEMPO PARA MANTENIMIENTO PREVENTIVO R=50%

253

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

onencial
PROBABILIDA DE
FALLA

1.0000

.0000

.8962
.8032
.7198
.6451
.5781
.5181
.4643
.4161
.3730
.3342
.2995
.2685
.2406
.2156
.1932
.1732
.1552
.1391
.1247
.1117
.1001

.1038
.1968
.2802
.3549
.4219
.4819
.5357
.5839
.6270
.6658
.7005
.7315
.7594
.7844
.8068
.8268
.8448
.8609
.8753
.8883
.8999

.0897
.0804

.9103
.9196

.0721
.0646

.9279
.9354

Confiabilidad
1.0000

.9000

.8000

.7000

.6000

Reliability

RELIABILITY

.5000

.4000

.3000

.2000

.1000

.0000
0

40

80

120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800
Horas

84

.1000
.0000
Figure 6: Weibull
Reliability Calculator
0

.0579
.0519
.0465
.0417
.0373
.0335
.0300

.9421
.9481
.9535
.9583
.9627
.9665
.9700

40

80

120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 520 560 600 640 680 720 760 800
Horas

84

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

abilidad

600

640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920

Horas

960 1,000 1,040 1,080 1,120 1,160 1,200 1,240 1,280

600

640 680 720 760 800 840 880 920

Horas

Figure 6: Weibull Reliability Calculator

960 1,000 1,040 1,080 1,120 1,160 1,200 1,240 1,280