Wawasan Brunei 2035

Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Richard Leete, PhD UN Resident Coordinator UNDP Resident Representative for Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei Darussalam UNFPA Representative

19-20 February 2008 Brunei Economic Development Forum Singapore

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

Wawasan Brunei 2035

(Articulated in 2007)
National long term vision to 2035 - Strategies and 50 policies to progress towards vision
over next 10 years - 5 year National Development plans

Bruneis Vision goals

(I) Nation recognised by accomplishments of its educated and highly skilled people (II) Quality of life among top 10 nations of world (III) Income per capital within top 10 nations of world

Where does Brunei stand in relation to human development and the MDGs?
- Population of about 370,000 of whom 2 in 3 persons are Brunei citizens

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

What is human development?

Conceptual approach to development that goes beyond income Process of increasing peoples capabilities and choices
Vision of realization of human rights and human freedom

Multidimensional concept with 3 key measurable dimensions

to have capacity to live a long and healthy life to be educated and knowledgeable to have access to assets, decent employment and income

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

Human Development Index (HDI)

Composite index employed by UNDP for measuring key dimensions of human capabilities Introduced in HDR of 1990, with an HDI for 1987, and has since become an annual must know Statistical indicators used in HDI are life expectancy at birth adult literacy and gross enrolment in primary, secondary and tertiary levels per capita GDP (PPP US$) MDG indicators provide for broader coverage of HD capture several dimensions not included in HDI, including on environment

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

HDI highly correlated with GDP per capita but dispersion high at lower GDP per capita levels
HD Index 2005 1.0
Malta Iceland Singapore
Qatar

0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2

High Human Development Indonesia

Malaysia

Brunei Darussalam
China Botswana Equatorial Guinea Swaziland

India

Brunei's 2005 HDI is 0.894 ranked 30 of 177 countries

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9 1.0 GDP Index 2005

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

(%) 100

Brunei Darussalams progress relative to worlds top 5 HDI countries: to leapfrog other countries requires big increase in education
Life expectancy Index GDP Index

Ratio over average of top five

95
HDI

90

Education Index

85
Top five countries in 2005: 1) Iceland 2) Norway 3) Australia 4) Canada 5) Ireland

80

75

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

Perlis 0.785

HDI for Brunei Darussalam, Malaysian states and Singapore, 2005

Kelantan 0.728

0.85 or more 0.80 0.84

Kedah 0.741 Pulau Pinang 0.834 Perak 0.790

Terengganu 0.813

0.75 0.79 Less than 0.75

Selangor 0.823 W.P. Kuala Lumpur 0.868

Pahang 0.776 N. Sembilan 0.801 Melaka 0.810 Johor 0.804 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 0.894

Sabah 0.735

Singapore 0.922

High HD: > 0.8 Medium HD: 0.5 to 0.8 Bruneis 2005 HDI: 0.894 Malaysias 2005 HDI: 0.811 Singapores 2005 HDI: 0.922

Sarawak 0.763

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

Sustained moderate levels of economic growth in Brunei Darussalam since mid-1980s

(%) 30 Average annual growth rate 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 1975-80 80-85 85-90 90-95 95-2000 2000-04 GDP Exports Imports

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

Most Bruneians employed in public sector

(%) 100 90 Employed persons 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
43.0 48.8 54.6

5.0 5.7 4.1 2.9 3.8 13.3

2.0 5.0 2.1

1.4 2.7 8.5 1.8 8.4 13.7 3.3 5.6

Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water supply Construction Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants Transport, storage and communications Finance, insurance, real estate, renting and business activities Community, social and personal services

18.6 14.4 10.8 6.6 3.0 5.1 5.4

1981

'91

2001

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

While almost all Brunei children enroll in primary and secondary school, tertiary enrolment remains low
(%) 100 90 Net enrolment ratio 80 70 60 50
Secondary School Total Boys Girls Primary school

40 30 20 10 0 1971 1981 1991

Tertiary School

2001

By 2001 most Bruneians had attended school and the majority had attained secondary level or above a generation ago, about one third had never attended 1971
Never attended school 31% Primary 73% Ever attended school 69% Secondary 36% Tertiary 1% 114.4 thousand

2001
Primary 47% Never attended school 6% 298.6 thousand
Ever attended school 94%

Secondary 48% Tertiary 5%

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

Ratio of girls' enrolment ratio to that of boys

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6

Small differences in enrollments of boys and girls at primary and secondary schooling contrasts with large differences at the tertiary level

Primary Secondary Tertiary

1971

81

91

2001

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

Labour force participation of Brunei women continues to increase sharply

(%) 100 Labour force participation rates
Male 1991

80
2001 Female 2001

60

1991

40

20

0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

Infant and child mortality levels now extremely low in Brunei Darussalam
45 mortality rate per 1,000 live births 40 35 Infant mortality 30 25 20 Under-5 mortality 15 10 5 0 1970 '75 '80 '85 '90 (3 year moving average) '95 2000 '03

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

(%) 100 Immunization coverage of infants 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91

Immunization of Brunei infants now almost universal

2001

1992

Tuberculosis Diphtheria/Tetanus/ Whooping Cough

Poliomyelitis

Hepatitis B

Measles, Mumps and Rubella

Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development

Conclusions
BD has high HD and achieved MDGs. Compared to top 5 countries, BDs achievements in health exemplary: education and per capita GDP, however, lagging
- Experience of Singapore suggests that with human capital investments in knowledge, innovation and ideas, leapfrogging is possible - Further human capital investments essential for k-economy

Experience of Malta and Luxembourg shows that having a small population size does not preclude having high human development and robust economic development Economic diversification requires continuous reassessment of policy direction and the human development required to support it