Documente Academic
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Documente Cultură
by Clive Keeling
2011 Canonbury Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Please note it is our intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. Published by Canonbury Publishing Ltd, all correspondence to: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS. Tel: 0208 597 0181. Fax: 0208 597 4040 Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No. 4765425 VAT Reg No. 811 5700 64
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CONTENTS
Chapter 1 The Power of Compounding: from Acorns to Oak Trees ...................................................................page 5 Chapter 2 Profit from the Bets Bookies HATE to Take Using this Each Way Betting Secret .................................................................page 12 Chapter 3 How to Grow Rich Slow With a Handicap Laying System .................................................................page 20
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Chapter 1
So what exactly is compounding? Well, simply put, we seek to earn a certain percentage of our betting bank daily. So, if our target is 100, and we seek to earn 2% of our betting bank daily. Heres how the first few days will look: 100 + 2% = 102 102 + 2% = 104.04 104.04 + 2% = 106.12 106.12 + 2% = 108.24 108.24 + 2% = 110.40 110.40 + 2% = 112.62 112.62 + 2% = 114.87
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In our first week, we have realized a 14% return on our betting bank. Take a walk down your high street, go to a bank, and ask if you can deposit 100 and get back 114 if you take the money out after 7 days... I think you know what theyd say! The daily profits we seek seem deceptively trifling, but lets fast forward to a little further on in our compounding calendar. After 4 weeks, our initial 100 would be 179.22. Thats just with looking to make 2% daily. Naturally as our betting bank increases, so naturally will the amount which makes up our 2% target. So after 34 days, our betting bank has doubled, and 2% target now becomes 4 rather than 2. This trend will continue as the betting bank increases. Its no wonder Einstein dubbed compounding the eighth wonder of the world
Horseracing:
By far the easiest way to make our compounding profit is by trading price fluctuations ideally before a race goes into the running.
NB. I urge you to take a look at www.binteko.com whose nifty bot software offers price graphs which indicate price momentum before the off. This bot is called Fairbot and takes the guesswork out of price movements. If the price graph looks like this:
... the price is shortening considerably and we would back the horse and look to lay off at a lower price with the same stake. If the price graph looks like this:
...the price is rising and we could look to lay the horse and back the horse later as the back price increases. Using Bet Angels (www.betangel.com) green button we can spread the profit made on the horse we have chosen to either back at a certain price and lay at a lower price with the same stake, or lay first and back at a higher price.
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Summer Soul is laid at 3.45 because I think the horse will be unfancied and thus drift. I place a back bet at 3.55 for 97 to create my 2 target profit on all horses. Alternatively, we can back Summer Soul at 3.55 for 100 (the same stake at which we laid the horse).
If you take this route, once you have made a profit on Summer Soul, press the green button next to the horses name on Bet Angel and the software will automatically spread the profit to all horses which is our goal when compounding.
Safety first...
I have been successfully employing this strategy, and have, on certain days, made some 30 by simply picking a big priced outsider and laying it at a certain price and placing a back bet at the next biggest price to produce a small profit.
Now, here I have decided to lay Winds of Change, having already seen the price rise steadily. I lay the horse at odds of 34 for 3 and place a back bet immediately at odds of 36 for 2.84 to create another risk free profit of 15p. This is a relatively safe method of making very small profits, but I do prefer trying to trade the more liquid market leaders as, at times, we can get our days 2% target profit in one fell swoop.
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Football:
The key, for me, to make compounding profitable is to lay the extreme outsider against a very short priced favourite. Here are 2 examples: Celtic v St Mirren and Dunfermline v Rangers. St Mirren were priced at 19. I laid St Mirren for 5. My liability being 90. Celtic scored first and St Mirrens back odds increased dramatically. Celtic went on to win 2-0 and I was able to back St Mirren to make a small risk-free profit on all outcomes. Rangers scored first against Dunfermline, whos back price, in reaction to the strong market leaders goal, increased dramatically. Despite Rangers drawing the game at fulltime, the very fact that they scored first ensured that Dunfermlines odds increased to such an extent that I could get out of the bet very quickly, with my small target showing all 3 results (home win, away win, and the draw). Teams I will be focusing on this season to help with my compounding will include Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United against Sheffield United, any Turkish league games where Fenerbahche and Galatasary are playing at home (provided their odds are long odds on e.g. 1/5), Barcelona at home when their odds to win are very short e.g. 1/5. These are a small select group of teams I have followed season after season who do not lose when at very short odds. In order to make football compounding profits, the matches we choose MUST be bettable in running to enable us to trade out for our small target profits as early as possible.
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Chapter 2
Profit from the Bets Bookies HATE to Take Using this Each Way Betting Secret
Heres a fantastic way to exploit each way betting from someone who makes his living from it. Over to Adam from easybetting.co.uk...
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the first 3 or 4 of the race. Dependent on the type of race it is, you will get a bookmaker quoting odds such as Each Way 14 1,2.3 What this means is that the place part of your bet will pay out at odds of 14 the win odds if your horses finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Dont worry, most people dont understand how the place part of an each way bet works... they just check their betting slip afterwards and hope the bookie got it right! The Win part of the bet: firstly if the horse wins the race you win on both of your bets. Your horse has placed (come first) and also won the race so both of your bets have won. The win odds are calculated at the odds of the horse X your staking (25 if using the above example). The downside is you obviously make less profit when an each way bet wins as only half your stake is going on it to win. However this is offset by the knowledge that if the bet comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th you will have saved yourself a potential loss. If the horse actually wins then the first thing to realise is that it also places hence both bets win: a) The win bet pays at 25 x 50 = 1250 + your 50 win stake back b) The place bet pays exactly as above being 250 profit +your 50 place stake back Putting it together: overall you win 1,250 + 250 = 1,500, and your account is credited with that plus all of your stake back = 1,600. Variations: not all horse races and sports will offer the same terms. In horse racing it depends on the number of runners and the type of race. The place fraction is either 14 or 15, and the number of places is normally from 2 to 4. For other sports it can vary a lot. In some tournaments like Tennis the terms may be 12 1,2 meaning youre only covered for a losing
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finalist. In golf the terms may be 14 1,2,3,4,5 meaning that finishing in the first 5 will get you something (if you back each way). If you dont want to do the maths there are each way calculators that will do it all for you, such as http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/calculator/. Each way betting is a great option especially if backing horses at big prices. It saves the feeling of despair especially when your bet gets pipped in a photo finish by a 100/1 outsider!! That happened to me not long ago but at least I was on each way and so didnt lose.
successfully advised each way bets that have beaten favourites as short as 1/3.... Which is generally unheard of!! As a rule the shorter in price the favourite is, the bigger in price the other horses will get and this is where our each way value bets come in. However the shorter price the favourite the higher chance it has of victory, and therein lies the expertise I utilise at my Easy Betting service, knowing where and what to be on and at what prices.
Minimum price to take: 4/1 generally on offer and make that your minimum today Duke of Stradone duly obliged here Example 2: 740 Uttoxeter Favourite: Artane Boys. Advice: McCoy onboard so an obvious stingy price for this favourite which has opened up value elsewhere. Drops in class but yet to totally convince and far too many question marks for such a short price. Each Way Bet: Dont Sioux Me. 50 each way. (100 to win). Advice: Taking a chance that he can recover the form of old after some time away from the track. Safe to disregard 2 unsuitable races in 2005 and if new trainer has him right will be a live threat to the fave. Minimum price to take: 6/1 in general best price on offer, make 11/2 your min today however. Each Way Bet: Moorlaw. 50 each way. (100 to win) Advice: Also a bit hit and miss over the past few months but if retaining obvious ability has the scope to challenge today. Minimum price to take: 13/2 looks decent best price but ensure you get at least 6/1 minimum. Moorlaw won this race at 9/2 and DontSioux Me was unplaced. Example 3: 250 Haydock 3 Favourite: Music By Mozart. Advice: Finished behind last nights successfully taken on favourite Mumaathel last time out. Vulnerable at such a short price and value looks elsewhere despite the yard being in fine form. Each Way Bet: Dallma. 50 each way. (100 to win).
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Advice: Drops in trip today to 6 furlongs which may well suit. Showed glimpses of promise in runs to date and needs to improve today but still an each way option. Minimum price to take: 5/1 is the best early price, make 9/2 your minimum if backed. Each Way Bet: Methaaly. 50 each way. (100 to win). Advice: Stands out from the others in the race and worth a chance based on pedigree. Watch your prices on this today. Minimum price to take: 6/1 from Sporting Odds the best price, make 5/1 your min price. Methally won at 6/1.
represent good each way prices, because, worst case scenario is that the horses place, and we will actually get our stakes returned. In my experience, the best races to concentrate on are maiden races with short priced favourites, especially if the short priced favourite is a short price only on reputation of the trainer/jockey/stable. With handicap races, horses who continue to win rise in the weights with each progressive race, making their task a lot more difficult. Their sequence of wins will come to an end eventually and these favourites can be taken on with an each way priced selection. Handicap hurdles races are also ideal hunting grounds. A recent example came with Different Class, who, as Adam hinted at, we have highlighted as a potential short-priced weak favourite. Why? Different Class is carrying a double penalty for a string of successes and was still installed as a short priced favourite at 7/4. Grand Slam Hero was 2nd favourite and was priced at 4/1 early on, with good previous form. Different Class lost and Grand Slam hero came 2nd in a photo finish. National Hunt Flat Races are also ideal hunting grounds for weak favourites. These races are the equivalent of maiden races on the flat e.g. the favourite may be there based purely on reputation. The shorter the price, the bigger the each way prices of the opponents. If we can determine close rivals to the favourite using the betting forecast, we could have a good each way bet hoping to overturn the favourite. TIP I would highly recommend Betfair for each way betting. The odds on offer can actually be much bigger than the odds which the bookmakers provide. To place an each way bet via Betfair, simply back the horse in the place only market, and back the horse in the win only market with the same stake. Try to make sure that the place only odds are 2.00 or above (equivalent to evens). This will ensure
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that, if your horse is placed, then you will get your stake returned. I happily recommend Adams service as it has been profiting regularly over the last few months. Junes results were not as good as I would have liked, with a number of unplaced horses and lost stakes as a result. However, Julys results have continued positively. This service will be ideal if you can afford to bet 50 each way on bets and are happy to bet only when the timing is right as there wont be bets every day. Take a look at http://www.easybetting.org.uk, where results are fully disclosed. Please understand I have no affiliation whatsoever with this service and receive no kick backs from recommending it; I have found that Adams each way philosophy makes a lot of sense and is close to my own thinking and makes money!
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Chapter 3
engineered his prices in such a way that he has an inbuilt profit margin on all the horses prices that he has offered to the backers. While the punter is looking for the horse he has backed to win, the bookmaker is looking for that same horse to lose! The advantage to the bookmaker he has all the other horses in the race running for him and against the punters selection. Would you rather back one horse to win, and profit only if that horse wins, or would you like to lay a horse and have all other horses running for you? This is entirely possible now, and a novice can get started and get profiting now.
The figure with a minus is the liability. If Inquisitress actually won this race, and we opposed the horse, we would lose this 40. The figure against the other runners shows the profit we would make if Inquisitress lost the race. Can you see we have 13 horses running for us (not all in screenshot) and if any of these 13 runners beat Inquisitress we are in profit. Liability Control the Key to Your Success If our selections to lay keep winning their races rather than losing them, then we will lose a lot of money and quickly! So, let me introduce you to the first step to become your own home bookie!
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STEP 1 Selecting Horses to Lose Their Races In order to make the profits we want to make it is vitally important that we have a strike rate of 85% or thereabouts on the horses we select to lose. This ensures that, if any of our selections have the audacity to win their races, then we have made enough profits from the losers to ensure our betting bank is not adversely affected. I have identified one specific type of race which is ideal for finding a good percentage of losing horses, and this race is the HANDICAP. In handicap races, additional weight is added to the good horses and weight is taken off the less consistent horses. This ensures that these types of races are very competitive, and it is in competitive races like this that we have a better chance of the favourites losing.
Fig 2
Make a note of those horses who have finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their last race ie, the last number under the FORM column should show a 1, 2 or 3 ( if there are 16 runners or more, we also include horses who have a 4 ) Ignore races with 7 runners or less Our selection is the horse who meets the above criteria, and is the BIGGEST PRICE IN THE BETTING FORECAST Do this with each handicap race at each race course until we have a list of horses to oppose. Selection System 2 Again we go to one of the meetings mentioned under CARD. This time we will click on the first race with the words handicap in the title. This is the 330 Catterick, but this race doesnt qualify for this system. We go to 500 Catterick. The race must have more than 7 runners. The more runners we have, the more difficult it is for the fancied horses to win. This race has 14 so passes the first stage. The betting forecast favourite must NOT be mentioned in BOLD CAPITALS by Spotlight Verdict (you can see below that Princess
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In this example Trojan Flight passes this stage. Now we click on Selections. The betting forecast favourite must not have higher than 3 selections. This indicates that the tipsters dont unanimously agree that Trojan Flight will win. Only 3 of the 14 tipsters have chosen Trojan Flight 11 have not! In this example, Trojan Flight had 2 selections so made it into our selection. Fig 4.
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LAY OUR SELECTIONS Now we must return to www.betfair.com to place our bets. The key here is the staking plan. Using a theoretical betting bank of 1000, we will place our lay stakes as follows: For horses whose prices are 3.5 and lower to lay (if youve taken the demo tour the lay prices are in pink on the right hand side of the screen) our stake is 1% of our betting bank eg 10 in the case of 1000 betting bank. As the betting bank increases so will our 1% stake. Eg if our betting bank was 1100 our 1% stake would be 11. For horses whose prices are between 3.6 and 7.4 to lay, our stake is 0.6% of our betting bank, or 6 using our example of a 1000 betting bank. For horses whose prices are between 7.5 and 11 to lay, our stake is 0.4% of our betting bank, or 4 using our example of 1000 betting bank. Fig 5
Taking our example from an actual selection (see Fig 5), you can see that the odds to lay Trojan Flight (the 2nd column) are 6.8. So your stake will be 0.6% or 6 if using 1000 as your starting capital. You will win 6 less Betfair commission = 5.70 if Trojan flight loses. If Trojan Flight has the cheek to win, we lose 34.80, which, relative to our betting bank will not set any alarm bells ringing, as the potential loss will be negated by other winning bets!
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All of these bets can be placed in a lunch hour and left. Log into Betfair later on to see how you have faired and begin the process again the next day. Dont worry about the odd losing day, it is the figure after 365 days that is the key. BOTTOM LINE: There you have it. A simple way you can become a bookmaker. Let me stress that the girl I mentioned before, Maria, turned 3,000 into 90,000 with a strike rate similar to the one I am experiencing at present. With patience and discipline, there is no reason you cannot model what she has done and duplicate the superb results. I am always seeking to improve the strike rate and will keep you informed. My actual trial has turned a nominal 500 starting bank into 570 in a little over a week contact me in a year and Im sure my butler will be able to update you on my successes Ill be at the beach hanging out with my celeb friends!! Thats it! I hope you enjoyed the report. Yours,
Clive Keeling
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