Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
1 Introducere
6.2. Tipuri de date şi indicatori fundamentali
6.2.1 Tabele utilizate în analiza datelor
6.2.2 Reducerea datelor
6.2.3 Legăturile dintre caracteristici
6.3 Analiza componentelor principale (ACP)
6.3.1 Metoda analizei componentelor principale
6.3.2 Geometria caracteristicilor şi indivizilor
6.3.3 Determinarea axelor principale şi a factorilor principali
6.3.4 Analiza tabelelor de proximitate
6.3.5 Studiu de caz
6.4. Clasificarea
6.4.1 Clasificarea neierarhică
6.4.2 Clasificarea ierarhică
6.4.3 Studiu de caz
TERMENI CHEIE
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6.1. Introducere
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XUP UHúWH DQDOL]D XQXL YROXP IRDUWH PDUH GH GDWH vQVR LW GH GHWHUPLQDUHD UHOD LLORU FH VH
OXFU ULDQWHULRDUHDOHOXL&6SHDUPDQúL.3HDUVRQ
3kQ OD v nceputul anilor ’60 dezvoltarea AD s-D I FXW vQ SDUWLFXODU SH GLUHF LL
WHRUHWLFH SX LQ DERUGDELOH SHQWUX SUDFWLFLHQL GHRDUHFH HUD QHFHVDU XQ YROXP IRDUWH PDUH GH
FDOFXOH 2 GDW FX GH]YROWDUHD FDOFXODWRDUHORU HOHFWURQLFH DFHVW QHDMXQV D IRVW vQO WXUDW úL de
DLFLRSXWHUQLF GH]YROWDUHúLXWLOL]DUHDLQVWUXPHQWHORURIHULWHGHDQDOL]DGDWHORU
ÌQ PRPHQWXO GH ID VXQW QXPHURúL FHUFHW WRUL FDUH VWXGLD] DFHVW GRPHQLX GLQWUH
GH SDUDPHWUL úL WHVWH VWDWLVWLFH VXQW IRDUWH UHVWULFWLYH ÌQ SUDFWLF vQV vQWkOQLm numeroase
DFHVWRUDFXPHWRGHOHFODVLFHHVWHUHODWLYGLILFLO
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caractHULVWLFLORU DFHVWRUD LQGLIHUHQW GH GLPHQVLXQHD FROHFWLYLW LL DQDOL]DWH SUHFXP úL R
UHSUH]HQWDUH JUDILF VXJHVWLY 6H SRW F XWD DVHP Q UL úL GHRVHELUL vQWUH LQGLYL]L – conform
anumitor criterii –VHSRWHIHFWXDFODVLILF ULúLRUGRQ ULGHPXO LPLVHSRWDQDOL]DUHOD LLOHFDUH
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VXJHVWLY vQ SODQ UHOD LLOH GLQWUH LQGLYL]L úL OHJ WXULOH GLQWUH FDUDFWHULVWLFL I U D VH SLHUGH XQ
YROXPVHPQLILFDWLYGHLQIRUPD LL
ÌQ UDSRUW FX WLSXO SUREOHPHL úL FX QDWXUD GDWHORU VWXGL ate se va alege metoda de
DQDOL] SRWULYLW
ERWDQLFDvQ úWLLQ HOH XPDQH PHGLFLQ sociologie, psihologie), în economie (marketing,
PDQDJHPHQWúWLLQ HSROLWLFHHWF
(1)
Hotteling, H. – Analysis of a Complex of Statistical Variables into Principal Components, Journal of
Educational Psychology, 1933, vol. 24, pag. 417-441, 498 –520.
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
Tabelul 6.1
1XP UGHLQGLYL]L 1XP UGH
caracteristici
Analiza datelor mare mare
6WDWLVWLFDFODVLF redus redus
sunt prezentate WLSXULOH GH GDWH úL LQGLFDWRULL XWLOL]D L 3DUDJUDIXO FRQ LQH PHWRGD
DQDOL]HLFRPSRQHQWHORUSULQFLSDOHvPSUHXQ FXH[HPSOHúLVWXGLLGHFD]
Un individ UHSUH]LQW HQWLWDWHD GH ED] DVXSUD F UXLD XQ REVHUYDWRU HIHFWXHD] XQ
RUDúH UL DQL HWF 0XO LPHD LQGLYL]LORU REVHUYD L SRDWH IL XQ HúDQWLRQ GLQWU R SRSXOD LH vQ
-
cazul unui sondaj) sau chiDU vQWUHDJD SRSXOD LH 3HQWUX DQDOL]D VWDWLVWLF FODVLF HVWH HVHQ LDO
PRGXO vQ FDUH VH HIHFWXHD] VRQGDMXO UHVSHFWLY OHJLOH SUREDELOLVWH SH FDUH OH UHVSHFW
SRSXOD LD DQDOL]DW vQ WLPS FH SHQWUX DQDOL]D GDWHORU HVWH LQWHUHVDQW VWUXFWXUD SRSXOD LHL
FLYLO QLYHOXOVWXGLLORUVDODULXOGRPLFLOLXOHWF
QXPHULF Exemple de caracteristici cantitative sunt: salariul, vârsta, profitul, cifra de afaceri,
YROXPXO YkQ] ULORU SURGXF LD HWF &X DOWH FXYLQWH R FDUDFWHULVWLF HVWH FDQWLWDWLY GDF LD
valoUL vQ VSD LXO Rn úL DVXSUD DFHVWHLD VH SRW HIHFWXD RSHUD LLOH DOJHEULFH X]XDOH DGXQDUH
RUGRQDWGXS XQ anumit criteriu ( de exemplu nivelul studiilor sau nivelul ierarhic).
O FDUDFWHULVWLF HVWH QRPLQDO GDF QX SRDWH IL RUGRQDW GH H[HPSOX VH[ FXORDUH
domiciliu etc).
$VXSUDFDUDFWHULVWLFLORUFDOLWDWLYHQXVHSRWHIHFWXDRSHUD LLOHDOJHEULFHX]XDOH
3HQWUX R PXO LPH GDW GH LQGLYL]L vPSUHXQ FX FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH DIHUHQWH VH
FRQVWUXLHúWH WD belul indivizi – FDUDFWHULVWLFL VXE IRUP PDWULFHDO SH UkQGXUL ILLQG QRWD L
LQGLYL]LLVWXGLD LLDUSHFRORDQHFDUDFWHULVWLFLOHFDUHvLGHVFULX
'H H[HPSOX SHQWUX DQJDMD LL XQHL ILUPH SXWHP FRQVWUXL WDEHOXO LQGLYL]L –
caracteristici prezentat în tabelul 6.2.
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
Tabelul 6.2
CARACTERISTICI
Loc
Nume Sex Vechi- Studii Salariu Nivel Profesie
prenume me brut ierarhic copii matrim
1 Ionescu M 45 20 Superi- 5,5 inginer 2 Bucu-
Vasile oare ! i
2 Popescu F 32 7 Medii 2,5 Pers. " ! # 3 $% & #
Claudia TESA
3 .
4 .
INDIVIZI
5 .
6 .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
n .
În FDGUXO DFHVWXL WDEHO VH J VHVF DWkW FDUDFWHULVWLFL FDQWLWDWLYH YkUVW YHFKLPH
VLWXD LH PDWULPRQLDO ÌQ LQWHULRUXO WDEHOXOXL VH DIO GDWHOH HIHFWLYH ce privesc indivizii,
respectiv Ionescu va fi descris prin sex –PDVFXOLQYkUVW – 45 ani, vechime – 20 ani etc.
Pentru a putea efectua analiza datelor prezente vom separa caracteristicile cantitative
de cele calitative (tabelul 6.3):
Tabelul 6.3
CARACTERISTICI
1 45 20 5,5 2
2 32 7 2,5 3
3
4
5
6
Indivizi
.
.
.
.
.
.
n
Pentru a putea prelucra caracteristicile calitative, vom construi un tabel în care vom
asocia variabilelor calitative valori numerice disjuncte: de exemplu pentru sex vom aloca
YDORULOHSHQWUXE UED LúLSHQWUXIHPHL7DEHOXOFRQ LQHRDVWIHOGHGHVFULHUHDGDWHORU
Tabelul 6.4
CARACTERISTICI
Sex 6LWXD LHPDWULPRQLDO /RFQDúWHUH Nivel ierarhic
M F & V W QHF V GLYRU DW Buc Provin- Muncit Pers Pers
. cie tesa cond.
1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
indivizi
3
.
.
.
n
'HFL]LLVWUDWHJLFHúLDQDOL]DGDWHORU
DFHODúL WDEORX GH GDWH DWkW YDULDELOHOH FDQWLWDWLYH FkW úL YDULDELOHOH FDOLWDWLYH vQ H[SULPDUH
(YLGHQW vQ DFHDVW UHSUH]HQWDUH DYHP R UHSUH]HQWDUH D GDWHORU FDOLWDWLYH VXE IRUP
FDQWLWDWLY
'H DVHPHQHD HVWH SRVLELO V UHSUH]HQW P úL YDULDELOHOH FDQWLWDWLYH VXE IRUPD
variabilelor indicative (cele care pot lua valori disjuncte, 0 sau 1) grupând indivizii în clase
GH H[HPSOX GXS JUXSH GH YkUVW VDX GH YHQLW )DSWXO F XQ LQGLYLG IDFH SDUWH GLQWU-o
7DEHOHGHFRQWLQJHQ
UHVSHFWLY YRU FRQ LQH IUHFYHQ HOH GH DSDUL LH DOH LQGLYL]LORU FRQVLGHUD L DVRFLD L FX
caracteristicile analizate.
3HQWUX H[HPSOXO FRQVLGHUDW DQWHULRU GDF YRP FRQVWUXL WDYHOXO GH FRQWLQJHQ vQWUH
VLWXD LD PDWULPRQLDO úL QLYHOXO LHUDUKLF YRP RE LQH vQ ORFD LD (i,j) QXP UXO GH LQGLYL]L FX
statutul matrimonial i FH VH DIO vQ SR]L LD LHUDUKLF j. 7DEHOXO FRQ LQH WDEHOXO GH
FRQWLQJHQ DIHUHQW
Tabelul 6.5
Caracteristici Muncitori Personal TESA Personal
conducere
& V WRULW 10 3 5
1HF V WRULW 2 4 1
'LYRU DW 1 5 2
'H H[HPSOX vQ ILUP H[LVW PXQFLWRUL F V WRUL L SHUVRDQH GLQ FRQGXFHUHD
ILUPHLGLYRU DWHHWF
Într-XQ DVHPHQHD WDEHO LQGLYL]LL DX IRVW UHJUXSD L úL QX PDL SRW IL GLVWLQúL vQ PRG
individual.
7DEHOHOH GH FRQWLQJHQ SRW IL GHWHUPLQDWH SOHFkQG GH OD YDULDELOHOH LQGLFDWLYH
$VWIHO GDF YRP FRQVLGHUD FDUDFWHULVWLFD VLWXD LH PDWULPRQLDO úL YRP QRWD FX X1 matricea
DIHUHQW UHVSHFWLY SHQWUX QLYHOXO LHUDUKLF YRP nota cu X2 PDWULFHD FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH WDEHOXO
t
X1 X2 = X (6.1)
'DF SHQWUX R PXO LPH GH LQGLYL]L VXQW GHILQLWH SURSULHW L GH DVHP QDUH VDX GH
GLVRFLHUH LDU DFHVWHD SRW IL GHVFULVH SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO XQHL P VXUL DWXQFL VH SRW FRQVWUXL
WDEHOHOHGHSUR[LPLWDWH'HH[HPSOXWDEHOXOGLVWDQ HORUGLQWUHSULQFLSDOHOHRUDúHDOH5RPkQLHL
constituie un H[HPSOX GH WDEHO GH SUR[LPLWDWH 8Q DVWIHO GH WDEORX HVWH vQ JHQHUDO VLPHWULF úL
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
FRQ LQH QXPHUH SR]LWLYH DQDORJH GLVWDQ HORU VDX LQYHUVHORU GLVWDQ HORU ([LVW úL VLWXD LL vQ
9RPGHILQLQR LXQHDGHGLVWDQ
$SOLFD LD d : A → R VH QXPHúWH GLVWDQ GDF úL QXPDL GDF UHVSHFW XUP WRDUHOH
SURSULHW L
'DF LQHJDOLWDWHD WULXQJKLXODU QX HVWH vQGHSOLQLW DWXQFL YRP VSXQH F d UHSUH]LQW
a) media
1 n
x= ⋅ ∑ xi PHGLDDULWPHWLF VLPSO (6.2)
n i =1
n
x = ∑ p i xi PHGLDDULWPHWLF SRQGHUDW (6.3)
i =1
7RWXúL QX HVWH VXILFLHQW V FDUDFWHUL] P R PXO LPH GRDU SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO PHGLHL
3HQWUX R GHVFULHUH PDL FRPSOHW YRP GHWHUPLQD úL DEDWHUHD PHGLH S WUDWLF UHVSHFWLY
dispersia.
b) DEDWHUHDPHGLHS WUDWLF
σ 2=
1 n
∑ xi − x
n i =1
( )
2
sau (6.4)
n
σ 2 = ∑ p i ⋅ xi − x
i =1
( ) 2
(6.5)
c) dispersia
σ = σ2 (6.6)
ÌQ WDEHOXO VXQW SUH]HQWDWH GRX VHULL GH vQUHJLVWU UL SHQWUX FDUH VXQW FDOFXODWH
PHGLLOHúLGLVSHUVLLOH
'HFL]LLVWUDWHJLFHúLDQDOL]DGDWHORU
Tabelul 6.6
Nr. Crt. x1 x2
1 15 3
2 17 25
3 35 32
4 57 79
5 34 23
6 24 45
7 27 2
8 13 7
9 8 15
10 22 21
Total 252 252
,QGLFDWRULLUHGXúLSHQWUXFHOHGRX VHULLVXQW
x1 = 25,2 x 2 = 25,2
σ 1 = 804,504 σ 2 = 1165,584
Chiar daF PHGLD HVWH DFHHDúL SHQWUX DPEHOH vQUHJLVWU UL DFHVWHD QX VXQW OD IHO
deoarece dispersiile lor nu coincid. Astfel, cea de-DGRXDvQUHJLVWUDUHHVWHPXOWPDLHWHURJHQ
FXLQGLYL]LPDLGLVSHUVD L
2EVHUYD LH 0HGLD úL GLVSHUVLD DUH VHQV GRDU SHQWUX YDULDELOH FDQWLWDWLYH QX úL SHQWUX
variabile calitative.
/HJ WXULOHGLQWUHFDUDFWHULVWLFL
0HWRGHOH SUH]HQWDWH vQ FRQWLQXDUH DQDOL]HD] OHJ WXULOH OLQLDUH FH H[LVW vQWUH
caracteristici. Pentru caractHUL]DUHD DFHVWRU OHJ WXUL YRP XWLOL]D FRHILFLHQWXO GH FRUHOD LH
&RHILFLHQWXO GH FRUHOD LH OLQLDU GLQWUH GRX FDUDFWHULVWLFL FDQWLWDWLYH VH GHWHUPLQ
astfel:
σ xy
r (x, y ) = (6.7)
σ x ⋅σ y
unde: σ xy -FRYDULQ DGLQWUHFDUDFWHULVWLFL
σ x , σ y - dispersiile caracteristicilor xúLy.
σ xy =
1 n
( )( )
∑ xi − x ⋅ y i − y sau
n i =1 (6.8)
= ∑ p ⋅ (x − x )⋅ (y − y )
n
σ xy i i i
i =1
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
n
∑ ui
2
r = 1−
2 i =1
(6.9)
∑ (y )
n 2
i −y
i =1
variabilele xúLy.
Exemplul 1. 6H FRQVLGHU GDWHOH GLQ WDEHOXO FDUH GHVFULX SUH XO XQRU DSDUWDPHQWH
Tabelul 6.7
Nr. 6XSUDID 3UH \
2
Crt. (x) (m ) (milione lei)
1 28 130
2 50 280
3 55 264
4 60 320
5 48 258
6 38 350
7 86 306
8 68 255
9 33 150
10 45 235
Total 511 2548
Grafic, norul de puncte ce rezulW GLQ UHSUH]HQWDUHD vQWU -un sistem de axe x,y este în
figura 6.1.
3UH
6XSUDID [
Figura 6.1
y=ax+b+u (6.10)
cu u –DEDWHUHDGLQWUH\úLGUHDSWDGHUHJUHVLH
'HFL]LLVWUDWHJLFHúLDQDOL]DGDWHORU
n n
∑ u i2 = ∑ (y − ax − b)
i =1 i =1
2
(6.11)
2EVHUYD LL
a) r ≤ 1 SHQWUXRULFHVHULHúLLQGLF SDQWDGUHSWHLGHUHJUHVLH
b) GDF r = 0 DWXQFL QX H[LVW QLFL R OHJ WXU vQWUH x úL y, iar dreapta de regresie este
RUL]RQWDO
f) Cu cât r VH DSURSLH GH ]HUR FX DWkW OHJ WXULOH VXQW PDL VODEH úL QX VH SRW HIHFWXD
DSDUWDPHQWúLVXSUDID DDFHVWXLD
3HQWUX D GHVFULH OHJ WXULOH FH H[LVW vQWUH YDULDELOHOH FDOLWDWLYH QX VH SRW XWLOL]D WDEHOH
FODVLF SURSXQH GHWHUPLQDUHD SH ED]D WDEHOXOXL GH FRQWLQJHQ D XQHL DOWH YDULDELOH FH YD
urma o lege cKL S WUDW ℵ ). Acest indicator este utilizat frecvent în cadrul analizei datelor,
2
PDLDOHVvQFD]XODQDOL]HLFRUHVSRQGHQ HORU
Exemplul 2 3HQWUX R ILUP VH FXQRDúWH WDEHOXO GH FRQWLQJHQ FH GHVFULH VDODULD LL
XQHLILPHvQUDSRUWFXQLYHOXOLHUDUKLFúLRULJLQHDVRFLDO WDEHOXO
Tabelul 6.8
2ULJLQHVRFLDO
n ⋅n
2
nij − i• • j
D2 = ∑
n = n ⋅ nij2
ni • ⋅ n• j ∑∑
i j ni • ⋅ n• j
− 1
(6.15)
i,j
n
GHSLQGHGRDUGHSUREDELOLW LOHPDUJLQDOHpiúLpj ( pentru datele noastre pij este estimat prin nij
Aplicând testul ℵ 2 variabilei D2 RE LQHP SHQWUX R YDULDELO FX JUDGH GH OLEHUWDWH
(date de (p-1)(q-1)úLFXRSUREDELOLWDWHGHGHDILLQGHSHQGHQW RE LQHPGLQWDEHOXOOHJLL
ℵ 2 o valoare de 16,81. Cum D2 = 69,2 PDL PDUH GHFkW UH]XOW F YRP UHVSLQJH
LSRWH]DGHLQGHSHQGHQ
σy
η 2= i
(6.16)
σ y
FDUDFWHUL]HD] WDEORXUL LQGLYL]L -caracteristici de tip numeric, respectiv tablouri în care sunt
HYLGHQ LDWH p caracteristici pentru n indivizi.
HYROX LDDFHVWRUDSUin intermediul norului de puncte aferent indivizilor. Aici fiecare individ va
( )
fi descris de coordonatele sale, xi1 , xi2 LDU DQDOL]D GDWHORU GLVSRQLELOH VH HIHFWXHD] XúRU
FKLDUúLYL]XDOÌQILJXUDVXQWSUH]HQWDWHFkWHYDGLQWUHOHJ WXUile posibile.
x2 x2
x2
x1 x1 x1
D$EVHQ D E/HJ WXU SXWHUQLF &$EVHQ DOHJ WXULL
Figura 6.2.
'DF VXQW WUHL FDUDFWHULVWLFL DWXQFL vQF HVWH SRVLELO V UHSUH]HQW P JHRPHWULF
PXO LPHD LQGLYL]LORU XWLOL]kQG VSD LXO WULGLPHQVLRQDO vQV SHQWUX PDL PXOW GH FDUDFWHULVWLFL
UHSUH]HQWDUHDJHRPHWULF QXPDLHVWHSRVLELO
LQGLYL]L QX VXQW vQ PRG QHFHVDU S VWUDWH SULQ SURLHFWDUHD ORU vQ SODQ ÌQ DFHVWH FRQGL LL YRP
(YLGHQW HVWH QHFHVDU GHILQLUHD SODQXOXL SH FDUH VH YD HIHFWXD SURLHF LD UHVSHFWLY D
SODQXOXL SH FDUH GLVWDQ HOH VXQW FHO PDL ELQH FRQVHUYDWH 3HQWUX GHWHUPLQDUHD DFHVWXLD YRP
adopta criteriul ma[LPL] ULL PHGLHLS WUDWHORU vQWUHSURLHF LLOH f1,f2,….,fp ale coordonatelor unui
individ pe un plan.
3HQWUX D GHWHUPLQD DFHVW SODQ HVWH VXILFLHQW V J VLP GRX GUHSWH GLQ FRPSRQHQ D VD
d 2 ( f i ; f j ) = d 2 (α i ;α j )+ d (β
2
i ;β j ) (6.17)
$VWIHO YRP F XWD PDL vQWkL d1 SULQ PD[LPL]DUHD PHGLHL GLVWDQ HORU d 2 (α i ;α j ), apoi
d2 SHUSHQGLFXODU SH d1, PD[LPL]kQG PHGLD GLVWDQ HOor d 2 (β i ; β j ). Se poate continua în
acest mod determinând d3,d4,…,dp drepte perpendiculare între ele.
Acestea vor reprezenta axele principale ale norului de puncte.
k
&RHILFLHQ LL u1k , u 2k ,..., u kp IRUPHD] IDFWRUXOSULQFLSDOX .
'HFL FHD PDL EXQ UHSUH]HQWDUHD GDWHORU FX DMXWRUXO D q caracteristici (pentru q < p)
VHRE LQHFXDMXWRUXO
primelor q componente principale.
Analiza componentelor principale este una din cele mai bune metode de reducere a
QXP UXOXL GH FDUDFWHULVWLFL VHPQLILFDWLYH úL SHUPLWH R EXQ UHSUH]HQWDUH JHRPHWULF D GDWHORU
LQL LDOH 5HGXFHUHD GDWHORU QX YD SXWHD IL HIHFWXDW GDF FHOH p FDUDFWHULVWLFL LQL LDOH QX VXQW
LQGHSHQGHQWHúLDXFRHILFLHQ LLGHFRUHOD LHQHQXOL
$&3 HVWH R PHWRG IDFWRULDO GHRDUHFH UHGXFHUHD QXP UXOXL GH FDUDFWHULVWLFL QX VH
face printr-R VLPSO VHOHF LH FL SULQ FRQVWUXF LD GH QRL FDUDFWHUL stici la care se ajunge pornind
GH OD FHOH LQL LDOH SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO ³IDFWRULORU´ &XP DYHP GH D IDFH FX FRPELQD LL OLQLDUH
-
UH]XOW F HVWHRPHWRG OLQLDU
$OWH PHWRGH IDFWRULDOH SURPRYDWH GH DQDOL]D GDWHORU VXQW DQDOL]D FRUHVSRQGHQ HORU
analiza canoniF úL DQDOL]D IDFWRULDO GLVFULPLQDQW DFHVWH PHWRGH DQDOL]kQG UHSUH]HQW UL
DFHODúL URO vQ WLPS FH DQDOL]D FRUHVSRQGHQ HORU VWXGLD] FDUDFWHULVWLFL FDOLWDWLYH iar analiza
FDQRQLF úLDQDOL]DGLVFULPLQDQW VWXGLD] FDUDFWHULVWLFLJUXSDWHvQFDOHGLVWLQFWH
,QVWUXPHQWHOH PDWHPDWLFH XWLOL]DWH YRU IL FHOH DOH DJHEUHL OLQLDUH úL DOH FDOFXOXOXL
matriceal.
6.3.2 *HRPHWULDFDUDFWHULVWLFLORUúLLQGLYL]LORU
( 1 2
g = x , x ,..., x
p
) (6.19)
în care ponderile sunt considerate egale, 1/nSHQWUXWR LLQGLYL]LL
'HFL]LLVWUDWHJLFHúLDQDOL]DGDWHORU
σ ij VDX GH FRHILFLHQ LL GH FRUHOD LH rij (vor fi de calculat p(p-1)/2 FRHILFLHQ L $VWIHO YRP
construi matricea V – QXPLW PDWULFH GH YDULDQ – FRYDULDQ FDUH YD FRQ LQH SH GLDJRQDOD
SULQFLSDO DEDWHULOH PHGLL S WUDWLFH DOH FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU LDU vQ UHVW FRYDULDQ HOH GLQWUH
caracteristicile j úLk.
σ 12 σ 12 .... σ 1 p
σ 21 σ 2 .... σ 2 p
2
. . . .
V =
. . . .
. . . .
σ p1 . . σ 2p
GLDJRQDOD SULQFLSDO YRP DYHD YDORDUHD 1 (deoarece r (xi;xi ) = 1 úL vQ UHVW YRP DYHD
FRHILFLHQ LLGHFRUHOD LHGLQWUHFDUDFWHULVWLFLOHjúLk.
1 r12 .... r1 p
r21 1 .... r2 p
. . . .
R=
. . . .
. . . .
r
p1 . . 1
0DWULFHD GH YDULDQ -FRYDULDQ úL PDWULFHD FRHILFLHQ LORU GH FRUHOD LH VXQW PDWULFL
WUDWLFHGHGLPHQVLXQHp x púLVLPHWULFHGHRDUHFH σ
S
ij = σ ji respectiv rij = rji .
1 / σ 0 .... 0
1
0 1/ σ 2 .... 0
. . . .
D1 / σ =
. . . .
. . . .
0 . 1/ σ
. p
RE LQHPUHOD LDPDWULFHDO
R = D1 / σ V D1 / σ . (6.20)
V = tX D X, (6.21)
p1 0 .... 0
0 p 2 .... 0
. . .
D –HVWHPDWULFHDGLDJRQDO DSRQGHULORU D= . .
. . .
0 . p n
.
ÌQFRQWLQXDUHYRPSUHVXSXQHF WRDWHFDUDFWHULVWLFLOHVXnt centrate.
6SD LXOLQGLYL]LORU
Fiecare individ este reprezentat de un punct cu p coordonate, deci este un vector din
(
Rp, deci ei = xi1 , xi2 ,..., xip .
VSD LXO )
2SULP SUREOHP HVWHDFHHDDP VXU ULLGLVWDQ HLGLQWUHLQGLYL]LFHHDFHVHUHGXFHOD
aGHILQLRPHWULF VDXRGLVWDQ
&HD PDL VLPSO GLVWDQ HVWH FHD HXFOLGLDQ 7RWXúL DSDUH SUREOHPD FRPSDU ULL
FDUDFWHULVWLFLORUGLVWLQFWHFXPDUILYkUVWDVDODULXOVDXQXP UXOGHFRSLL
9RPGHILQLRGLVWDQ GHWLSHXFOLGLDQDVWIHO
(
d 2 = a1 x11 − x 12 ) 2
(
+ a 2 x12 − x 22 )
2
(
+ ... + a p x1p − x 2p ,)
2
(6.22)
7RWXúL SHQWUX D SXWHD FRQVLGHUD GLVWDQ HOH HXFOLGLHQH D[HOH WUHEXLH V ILH
3HQWUX D[H REOLFH vQWUH FDUH H[LVW XQJKLXO IRUPXOD GLVWDQ HL vQWUH GRX SXQFWH
devine:
(
d 2 = x1k − x 2k ) + (x
2
1
j
− x 2j ) 2
( )(
− 2 x1k − x 2k x1j − x 2j cos θ) (6.23)
( )( )
n p
d 2 (e1 ; e2 ) = ∑∑ m kj x1k − x 2k x1j − x 2j . (6.24)
k =1 j =1
Notând cu M PDWULFHD IRUPDW GLQ HOHPHQWHOH mkj putem scrie matriceal formula
GLVWDQ HL
e1 ; e2 M
= t e1 ⋅ M ⋅ e2 . (6.26)
1 / σ 2
0 .. 0
1
0 1/ σ 2
. .
M = D1 / σ 2 = 2
. . . .
0 0 0 1 / σ 2p
$FHDVWD SUHVXSXQH vPS U LUHDILHF UHLFDUDFWHULVWLFL FX DEDWHUHD PHGLH S WUDWLF FHHD
FH IDFH FD GLVWDQ HOH GLQWUH LQGLYL]L V QX PDL GHSLQG GH XQLWDWHD GH P VXU UDSRUWXO xi/σj
HVWHI U GLPHQVLXQH$VIHOYRP DORFDILHF UHLFDUDFWHULVWLFLDFHHDúLLPSRUWDQ LQGLIHUHQWGH
dispersia sa. Cu alte cuvinte, metrica D1 / σ 2 UHVWDELOHúWH XQ HFKLOLEUX vQWUH FDUDFWHULVWLFL
2EVHUYD LH 2ULFH PHWULF VLPHWULF SR]LWLY GHILQLW M SRDWH IL VFULV FD SURGXV GH
e1 ; e2 M
= t e1 ⋅ M ⋅ e2 = t e1 t T ⋅ T ⋅ e2 = t (T ⋅ e1 )⋅ (T ⋅ e2 ) = T ⋅ e1 ; T ⋅ e2 I
(6.27)
ÌQFRQWLQXDUHYRPSUH]HQWDPRGXOvQFDUHVHGHWHUPLQ FRRUGRQDWHOHXQXLLQGLYLGGXS
'DF YRP SOHFD GH OD XQ VLVWHP GH D[H RUWRQRUPDWH x1,x2,…,xp SURLHF LD XQXL individ
SH R GUHDSW d YD GHWHUPLQD R QRX FDUDFWHULVWLF c, cu valorile c1,c2,…,cp care vor fi
SURLHF LLOH SXQFWHORU ei SH DFHVW GUHDSW 'DF D HVWH YHFWRUXO XQLWDU DO OXL d iar M este
PHWULFDXWLOL]DW SHQWUXxUH]XOW
(deoarece MHVWHVLPHWULF
n
Luând u = M aUH]XOW GLUHFW c = X ⋅ u = ∑ u j xij (6.29)
j =1 i =1, p
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
,QHU LD
Vom numi LQHU LH D QRUXOXL GH SXQFWH PHGLD S WUDWHORU GLVWDQ HORU FHORU n puncte la
centrul de greutate:
℘= ∑p ⋅ ei = ∑ pi t ei Mei
2
i M
(6.30)
i i
$FHDVW FDQWLWDWH YD P VXUD GHS UWDUHD SXQFWHORU QRUXOXL vQ UDSRUW FX FHQWUXO GH
greutate (cu alte cuvinte dispeUVLD JOREDO D QRUXOXL GH SXQFWH 2 LQHU LH QXO VDX DSURSLDW
GH ]HUR DUDW F WR L LQGLYL]LL VXQW LGHQWLFL VDX DSURDSH LGHQWLFL FRQIXQGD L FX FHQWUXO GH
greutate g.
6H SRDWH DU WD XúRU IDSWXO F LQHU LD ℘ VHWH HJDO FX PHGLD S WUDWHORU FHORU n(n-1)/2
GLVWDQ HvQWUHSXQFWHOHQRUXOXL
'H DVHPHQHD SXWHP GHILQL LQHU LD vQ UDSRUW FX XQ DOW SXQFW h, diferit de centrul de
greutate:
℘h = ∑p i ⋅ d 2 (ei ; h ) (6.31)
i
/HJ WXUDGLQWUH ℘úL℘hHVWHGDW GHIRUPXODOXL+X\JKHQV
℘h = ℘ + d 2 (g;h) (6.32)
SXQFWHORU QRUXOXL vQ VHQVXO PLQLPL] ULL PHGLHL S WUDWHORU GLVWDQ HORU GH ODSXQFWHOH QRUXOXL OD
plan.
9RPSUHVXSXQHF SODQXOSULQFLSDOúLPDLPXOWD[HOHSULQFLSDOHWUHFvQWRWGHDXQDSULQ
℘ = Tr (MV) (6.34)
2EVHUYD LL
• 'DF M = I DWXQFL LQHU LD HVWH HJDO FX VXPD DEDWHULORU PHGLL S tratice asociate celor p
caracteristici;
• 'DF M = D
1/ s2
atunci avem:
• Pentru o matrice M RDUHFDUH LQHU LD HVWH HJDO FX VXPD DEDWHULORU S WUDWLFH DOH
)LHFDUH FDUDFWHULVWLF HVWH vQ UHDOLWDWH R OLVW GH YDORUL QXPHULFH FX DOWH FXYLQWH OH
a) Metrica
3HQWUX VWXGLHUHD DSURSLHULL GLQWUH FDUDFWHULVWLFL WUHEXLH V vQ]HVWU P VSD LXO FX R
VSD LXO LQGLYL]LORU VH SXQH SUREOHPDDOHJHULL PHWULFLL XWLOL]DWH SHQWUX VSD LXO FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU
QX PDL DSDUH DFHDVW SUREOHP GHRDUHFH DFHDVW PHWULF WUHEXLH V ILH GDW GH SRQGHULOH
Într-XQ VSD LX HXFOLGLDQ XQJKLXO θ GLQWUH GRL YHFWRUL VH GHWHUPLQ SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO
produsului scalar:
x j ; xk σ
cos θ = =
jk
(6.36)
σ j⋅σ
jk
x ⋅ x
j k
k
GHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU
FD]XOVSD LXOXLFDUDFWHULVWLFLORUYRUILPDLLPSRUWDQWHXQJKLXULOHGLQWUHDFHVWHD
'DF x1, x2, …, xp VXQW FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH P VXUDWH DVXSUD FHORU Q LQGLYL]L DWXQFL YRP
VXEVSD LX YHFWRULDO W DO VSD LXOXL FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU 'DF QXH[LVW QLFL R OHJ WXU OLQLDU vQWUH
FDUDFWHULVWLFLDWXQFLDFHVWVXEVSD LXHVWHGHGLPHQVLXQHSDOWIHOHVWHGHGLPHQVLXQHPDLPLF
σ c2 = t c ⋅ D ⋅ c = t u ⋅t x ⋅ x ⋅ u = t u ⋅ V ⋅ u (6.37)
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
'HWHUPLQDUHDD[HORUSULQFLSDOHúLDIDFWRULORUSULQFLSDOL
La începutul acestui paragraf am definit d1 D[D SULQFLSDO SULQ SURSULHWDWHD F PHGLD
S WUDWHORU GLVWDQ HORU SURLHF LLORU SXQFWHORU QRUXOXL SH GUHDSW a d1 HVWH PD[LP Aceasta
SUHVXSXQHPD[LPL]DUHDLQHU LHLSURLHF LLORUUHVSHFWLYD ∑ i i2 , cu ci P VXULOHDOJHEULFH
p
i
⋅ c
…, λp GHVFULVHvQRUGLQHGHVFUHVF WRDUH
9RPFRQVLGHUDQRLOHD[HDOHVSD LXOXLLQGLYL]LORUFDILLQGYHFWRULLSURSULLDLPDWULFHLFH
2EVHUYD LH
• 5HDPLQWLP F YDORULOH SURSULL DVRFLDWH XQHL PDWULFH V VXQW VROX LLOH HFXD LHL
det(V - λ I ) = 0.
0DWULFHDYDULDQ HLFRPSRQHQWHORUSULQFLSDOHYDILvQDFHVWFD]
λ 0
1
λ
V =
2
.
0 λ p
3HQWUX D GHWHUPLQD GLUHFW D[HOH IDFWRULL úL FRP ponentele principale în raport cu X
PDWULFHDGDWHORULQL LDOHYRPIDFHXUP WRDUHOHWUDQVIRUP UL
V ⋅ u = λ ⋅ u = TV t T ⋅ u ⇒
T ⋅ TV tT ⋅ u = λ t T ⋅ u ⇒
t
(6.37)
MVu = λ ⋅ u
Cu alte cuvinte, axele principale vor fi vectorii proprii ai matricei VM, iar factorii
principali vor fi vectorii proprii ai matricei MV.
&RPSRQHQWHOHSULQFLSDOHVHRE LQGLQUHOD LDc = X u. (6.38)
'HFL]LLVWUDWHJLFHúLDQDOL]DGDWHORU
1XP UXO GH YDORUL SURSULL QHQXOH YD GD GLPHQVLXQHD VSD LXOXL vQ FDUH VH HIHFWXHD]
REVHUYD LLOH 2 YDORDUH SURSULH QXO YD LQGLFD H[LHWDQ D XQHL UHOD LL OLQLDUH vQWUH FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH
LQL LDOH
2EVHUYD LL
vQSODQXOSULQFLSDOHVWHPDLEXQ
F UHVWXOFDUDFWHULVWLFLORUDXRFRQWULEX LHQHVHPQLILFDWLY
• 0HWRGDSHUPLWHVWDELOLUHDRUGLQLLúLLPSRUWDQ HLFDUDFWHULVWLFLORUVWXGLDWH
GLVWDQ HOHGLQWUHLQGLYL]LFXDOWHFXYLQWHHVWHFXQRVFXWWDEHOXOGHSUR[LPLWDWH8QH[HPSOXvQ
acest caz îl poate constitui studiul caracteristicilor unor produse, caracteristici apreciate
VXELHFWLYGHF WUHFRQVXPDWRULGRDUSHED]D³GLVWDQ HL´GLQWUHSURGXVH3HQWUXDSXWHDHIHFWXD
R DQDOL] D FRPSRQHQWHORU SULQFLSDOH WUHEXLH V HSUH]HQW P JUDILF GLVWDQ HOH GLQWUH HOHPHQWH
P UFLDOHXQXLSURG us de exemplu).
'DWHOH GH SOHFDUH YRU IL LQFOXVH vQ WDEORXO GLVWDQ HORU GLQWUH FHL Q LQGLYL]L
IL FRQVLGHUD L SXQFWH vQWU XQ VSD LX GH GLPHQVLXQH S QHFXQRVFXW vQ]HVWUDW FX R PHWULF 0
-
'DF DPFXQRDúWHFRRUGRQDWHOHSHD[HRUWRJRQDOHFKLDUDUELWUDUHDWXQFLV -ar putea construi un
tabel indivizi-FDUDFWHULVWLFLúLV VHHIHFWXH]HR$&3
GLVWDQ HORUGLQWUHLQGLYL]L
D LQGLYL]LORU SH XQ VSD LX GH GLPHQVLXQH T vQ FDUH GLVWDQ HOH VH YRU P VXUD SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO
SURFHQWDMXOXLLQHU LH
2EVHUYD LH $SOLFDUHD PHWRGHL $&3 SHQWUX XQ DVHPHQHD WLS GH GDWH VH QXPHúWH
procentual princLSDOHOH FKHOWXLHOL SXEOLFH SUHY ]XWH vQ EXJHW SHQWUX ILHFDUH DQ GLQ FHL
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
FRQVLGHUD L 9RP DYHD GH LQGLYL]L UHSUH]HQWD L GH DQL úL UHVSHFWLY FDUDFWHULVWLFL
LOC –/RFXLQ H
AGR –$JULFXOWXU
VR – Veterani de r ]ERL
EDU –(GXFD LHúLFXOWXU
APA –$S UDUH
ACS –$FWLYLW LVRFLDOH
TR – Transporturi
CI –&RPHU úLLQGXVWULH
DAT –'DWRULHSXEOLF
DIV - Diverse
0DWULFHDGHFRUHOD LHDFHORUFDUDFWHULVWLFLHVWH
ADS 1
AGR -0.8 1
CI 0.00 0.60 1
TR 0.23 -0.27 0.09 1
LOC 0.04 0.44 0.89 0.17 1
V= EDU -0.15 0.73 0.47 -0.21 0.23 1
ACS -0.13 0.81 0.62 -0.20 0.49 0.88 1
VR -0.69 0.04 0.02 -0.31 0.05 0.16 0.29 1
APA 0.10 -0.45 -0.54 0.16 -0.38 -0.52 -0.57 -0.42 1
DAT 0.03 -0.69 -0.80 -0.15 -0.76 -0.67 -0.81 -0.05 0.26 1
DIV 0.15 -0.28 -0.35 0.11 -0.44 -0.25 -0.53 -0.38 0.02 0.55 1
ADS AGR CI TR LOC EDU ACS VR APA DAT DIV
FRPHU HVWH GH FHHD FH DUDW R OHJ WXU SXWHUQLF DSURDSH OLQLDU vQWUH FHOH
GRX FDUDFWHULVWLFL &X DOH FXYLQWH FHOH GRX WLSXUL GH FKHOWXLHOL DX HYROXDW vQ
DFHODúLVHQVvQPDUHDPDMRULWDWHDDQLORUDQDOL]D L
- ÌQ VFKLPE FRHILFLHQWXO GH FRUHOD LH GLQWUH FKHOWXLHOLOH SHQWUX DGPLQLVWUD LH úL FHOH
SHQWUX LQGXVWULH úL FRPHU HVWH FHHD FH DUDW OLSVD FRPSOHW D OHJ WXULORU GLQWUH
6XPD YDORULORU SURSULL HVWH HJDO FX QXP UXO GH FDUDFWHULVWLFL GHRDUHFH D IRVW DOHDV
metrica M = D1 / s 2 , deci va fi 11. Ultima valoare proprie este 0 deoarece cele 11 caracteristici
sunt corelate printr-RUHOD LHOLQLDU ILLQGSURFHQWHGLQFKHOWXLHOLOHSXEOLFHVXPDORUHVWH
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
3ULPHOH GRX YDORUL SURSULL UHSUH]LQW DSUR[LPDWLY GLQ LQHU LDWRWDO D QR rului de
SXQFWH GHFL UHVWUkQJHUHD DQDOL]HL GRDU OD SULPHOH GRX FRPSRQHQHWH SULQFLSDOH HVWH
VHPQLILFDWLY
studiate, deoarece cu cât acesta este mai mare, cu atât ponderea primelor componente poate
VF GHDúLWRWXúLV U PkQ VHPQLILFDWLY
Tabelul 6.11
An c1 c2 An c1 c2
1872 -2.90 -1.02 1932 0.27 1.96
1880 -2.77 -2.01 1935 0.66 2.30
1890 -2.42 -0.22 1938 -0.40 1.34
1900 -2.06 -0.75 1947 1.08 -2.25
1903 -2.34 -.017 1950 2.37 -2.17
1906 -1.98 -0.63 1953 1.20 -1.13
1909 -1.91 -0.81 1956 2.93 -0.23
1912 -1.43 -0.77 1959 2.69 -0.14
1920 -2.14 -0.96 1962 3.06 0.11
1923 -1.14 2.88 1965 3.14 -0.31
1926 -1.67 2.61 1968 3.70 0.47
1929 -1.12 1.83 1971 3.24 0.09
)LJXUDLOXVWUHD] UHSUH]HQWDUHDvQSODQXOGHWHUPLQDWGHD[HOHSULQFLSDOH
'HFL]LLVWUDWHJLFHúLDQDOL]DGDWHORU
Axa 2
1923
1928 1935
1900
1932
1929
1938
1968
1962
1971
1890
1959 1958
1903 1906 Axa 1
1965
1900 1912
1920 1909 1953
1872
1947
1880 1950
Figura 6.3
&XP ILJXUD RE LQXW PDL VXV HVWH R SURLHF LH QX WUHEXLH V VH FRQIXQGH DSURSLHULOH
GLQWUH YHFWRUL úL SURLHF LLOH ORU 'DF YDORDUHD FRVLQXVXOXL VH DSURSLH GH DWXQFL SURLHF LD VH
FRQIXQG FX YHFWRUXO LQL LDO vQV GDF YDORDUHD FRVLQXVXOXL VH DSURSLH GH ]HUR DWXQFL SRW
DSDUHSUREOHPHGHLQWHUSUHWDUHDUH]XOWDWXOXLRE LQXW
anii úLFDUHDXXQFRVLQXVGH
ÌQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH VH RE LQ PDL PXOWH HOHPHQWH VODE UHSUH]HQWDWH DFHDVWD VH
GDWRUHD] LQHU LHL UHGXVH D SODQXOXL SULQFLSDO úL YD IL QHFHVDU úL DQDOL]D SODQXULORU GHILQLWH
,QWHUSUHWDUHDFRPSRQHQWHORUSULQFLSDOHúLDD[HORUSULQFLSDOH
8QD GLQWUH FHOH PDL GHOLFDWH SUREOHPH HVWH DFHHD D LQWHUSUHW ULL VHPQLILFD LHL
FRPSRQHQWHORU SULQFLSDOH FDUH VXQW vQ UHDOLWDWH R FRPELQD LH OLQLDU D FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU GH
plecare. SuQW DGRSWDWH GRX SXQFWH GH YHGHUH SH GH R SDUWH VXQW DQDOL]DWH FRUHOD LLOH FX
FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH LQL LDOH LDU SH GH DOW SDUWH VXQW DQDOL]D L LQGLYL]LL WLSLFL SHQWUX PXO LPHD GH
start.
D &HUFXO FRUHOD LLORU &DOFXOXO FRUHOD LLORU GLQWUH FRPSRQHQWHOH SULQFLSDOH úL
FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH LQL LDOH HVWH XúRU GH HIHFWXDW vQ FD]XO PHWULFLL
D1 / s 2 , respectiv coeficientul de
j
FRUHOD LH OLQLDU GLQWUH [ úL ck este egal cu componenta j din vectorul propriu k vQPXO LW FX
ÌQ FD]XO QRVWUX WDEHOXO UDSRDUWHORU GH FRUHOD LH vQWUH FRPSRQHQWHOH SULQFLSDOH úL
FDUDFWHULVWLFLHVWHXUP WRUXO
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
Tabelul 6.12
&DUDFWHULVWLF r(c1;xj) r(c2;xj)
ADS -0.17 -0.74
AGR 0.82 -0.01
CI 0.83 -0.34
TR -0.14 -0.63
LOC 0.72 -0.40
EDU 0.79 0.14
ACS 0.93 0.10
VR 0.29 0.81
APA -0.61 -0.22
DAT -0.89 0.30
DIV -0.55 -0.11
3ULPD FRPSRQHQW SULQFLSDO HVWH SR]LWLY FRUHODW FX SURFHQWXO GLQ EXJHW DORFDW
DFWLYLW LORU VRFLDOH FRPHU XOXL úL LQGXVWULHL UHVSHFWLY DJULFXOWXULL úL QHJDWLY FRUHODW FX
FKHOWXLHOLOH GHVWLQDWH DS U ULL QD LRQDOH úL SO LL GDWRULHL SXEOLFH &X DOWH FXYLQWH vQ UDSRUW FX
SULPD FRPSRQHQW SULQFLSDO DSDUH R SULP JUXSDUH D FDUDFWHULVWLFLORU LQL LDOH $FHDVWD QH
ODGUHDSWDvQSODQFXDWkWVHYDGHS UWDGHPHGLHSULQYDORULPDULDOHFDUDWHULVWLFLORU$&6&,
AGR, concomitent cu valori mici în medie SHQWUX '$7 úL $3$ 3XQFWHOH VLWXDWH OD VWkQJD
úLFHODORFDWDGPLQLVWUD LHL
'DF YRP UHSUH]HQWD ILHFDUH FDUDFWHULVWLF SULQWU -un punct într-un sistem de axe
GHWHUPLQDWGHSULPHOHGRX FRPSRQHQWHSULQFLSDOHDWXQFLREVHUY PF DFHVWHDVHYRUvQVFULH
F ( ) ( )
r 2 c1 ; x j + r 2 c 2 ; x j ≤ 1.
VR
DAT
EDU
ACS
DIV AGR
APA CI
TR
LOC
ADS
Figura 6.4
pentru indivizi.
'HFL]LLVWUDWHJLFHúLDQDOL]DGDWHORU
E /RFXO úL LPSRUWDQ D LQGLYL]LORU 2EVHUYkQG F GH -a lungul axei 1 anii sunt aproape
vQ RUGLQH FURQRORJLF DFHDVWD YD SHUPLWH V SXQHP vQ HYLGHQ HYROX LD WHPSRUDO D
FKHOWXLHOLORU SXEOLFH 6H SRW GHWHUPLQD LQGLYL]LL FDUH FDUDFWHUL]HD] vQ PRG GHWHUPLQDQW D[D
UHVSHFWLY SULQ FDOFXOXO FRQWULEX LHL XQXL SXQFW OD IRUPDUHD D[HL N $FHDVW FRQWULEX LH YD IL
pi ⋅ cik2 / λ k FDUH HVWH SDUWHD GLQ DEDWHUHD PHGLH S WUDWLF D FRPSRQHQWHL Fk GDWRUDW
LQGLYLGXOXLL$VIHOSHQWUXD[DFRQWULEX LLOHGRPLQDQWHUHYLQDQLORUúLLDUSHQWUX
D[DDQLORUúL
$FHDVW LQWHUSUHWDWH QX DUH VHQV GHFkW vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH QH LQWHUHVHD] V DQDOL] P úL
indivizii ce fac parte din norul de puncte. În cazul unor sondaje sau alegeri aleatoare
LQWHUHVHD] PDL SX LQ LQGLYL]LL úL PDL PXOW FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH DFHVWRUD ÌQ DFHVW FD] $&3 VH YD
2 DOW GLILFXOWDWH LPSULPDW GH DFHVW DQDOL] HVWH DFHHD D LQIOXHQ HL GDWHORU DEHUDQWH
'DF YRP DQDOL]D IRUPDUHD D[HORU úLFRQWULEX LDLQGLYL]LORU vQ IRUPDUHD D[HORU SULQFLSDOH XQ
LQGLYLG DEHUDQW LQIOXHQ HD] VHPQLI icativ analiza. 'LQ DFHVW PRWLY GXS LGHQWLILFDUHD DFHVWRU
6.4. Clasificarea
&ODVLILFDUHD vúL SURSXQH FD SULQ PHWRGHOH VDOH V JUXSH]H LQGLYL]LL XQHL PXO LPL GDWH
într-XQ QXP U PDL PLF GH FODVH RPRJHQH $OWIHO VSXV YRP UHGXFH QXP UXO GH LQGLYL]L SULQWU -o
DVRFLHUHDFRUHVSXQ] WRDUHDGDWHORU
- PHWRGH QHLHUDUKLFH vQ XUPD F URUD UH]XOW GLUHFW R SDUWL LH vQUW XQ QXP U IL[DW GH
-
clase.
- PHWRGH LHUDUKLFHvQXUPDF URUDUH]XOW SDUWL LLvQ FODVHGLQFHvQFH PDLPDUL 8Q
H[HPSOX vQ DFHVW VHQV vO FRQVWLWXLH FODVLILF ULOH GLQ ]RRORJLH vQ VSHFLL JHQXUL
ÌQ XOWLPLL DQL DOJRULWPLL GH FODVLILFDUH DX FXQRVFXW R HYROX LH H[SRQHQ LDO R GDW FX
6.4.1 &ODVLILFDUHDQHLHUDUKLF
individualizatH 3HQWUX DFHDVWD HVWH QHFHVDU GHILQLUHD XQXL FULWHULX JOREDO SULQ FDUH V VH
P VRDUH DSURSLHUHD VDX GLVWDQ D GLQWUH LQGLYL]LL DFHOHLDúL FODVH GHFL FDOLWDWHD XQHL SDUWL LL
'DF YRP GLVSXQH GH XQ DVHPHQHD FULWHULX FHO SX LQ GLQ SXQFW GH YHGHUH WHRUHW ic, am putea
FRQVWUXL WRDWH JUXS ULOH SRVLELOH úL DSRL V ILH UH LQXW FHD PDL EXQ ÌQ UHDOLWDWH GDWRULW
QXP UXOXL PDUH GH GDWH DQDOL]DWH DFHDVW YDULDQW HVWH H[FOXV FKLDU úL SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO
DOJRULWPLL HODERUD L FDXW V GHWHUPLQH R VROX LH DSUR[LPDWLY FkW PDL DSURSLDW GH FHD
RSWLP
3ULQFLSLLOH GH ED] FH VWDX OD HODERUDUHD PDMRULW LL DOJRULWPLORU HVWH PD[LPL]DUHD
,QHU LDLQWHUFODVHúLLQWUDFODVH
Considerând cei n LQGLYL]L DL PXO LPLL FD SXQFWH vQ VSD LXO HXFOLGLDQ SUREOHPD
FODVLILF ULL VH SRDWH UHGHILQL SULQ F XWDUHD XQHL SDUWL LL GH k HOHPHQWH GLQ PXO LPHD LQL LDO D
celor n indivizi.
,QHU LDXQXLQRUGHSXQFWH ℘FDUHYDILHOHPHQWXOSULQFLSDODOFODVLILF ULORUUHSUH]LQW
GLVSHUVLD SXQFWHORU QRUXOXL vQ MXUXO FHQWUXOXL V X GH JUHXWDWH 2 FODVva fi cu atât mai
RPRJHQ FXFkW LQHU LD VD YDIL PDL PLF ÌQDFHVW FRQWH[WILH ℘1,℘2,…,℘k LQHU LLOHILHF UHL
clase calculate în raport cu centrele lor de greutate g1, g2,…,gk 6XPD DFHVWRU LQHU LL VH
QXPHúWHLQHU LHLQWUDFODVHúLRYRPQRWDFX℘w, respectiv vom avea:
'HFL]LLVWUDWHJLFHúLDQDOL]DGDWHORU
k
℘w = ∑
j =1
℘j (6.39)
PLF
&RQVLGHU P DFXP PXO LPHD FHQWUHORU GH JUHXWDWH g1, g2, …, gk DOH ILHF UHL FODVH úL g
centrul de gUHXWDWH DO QRUXOXL GH SXQFWH LQL LDO 3HQWUX DFHDVW PXO LPH YRP FDOFXOD LQHU LD
DVRFLDW FDUHVHYDQXPLLQHU LHLQWHUFODVH:
k
℘b = ∑
j =1
pj d2 (gj ; g) (6.40)
d2 (gj ; g) - GLVWDQ D HXFOLGLDQ GH OD FHQWUXO GH JUHXWDWH DO FODVHL j la centrul
de greutate al norului de puncte.
℘b -LQHU LDLQWHUFODVH
2 YDORDUH PDUH D LQHU LHL LQWHUFODVH YD LQGLFD R EXQ VHSDUDUH D FODVHORU GHFL HVWH
necesar ca ℘b V ILHFkWPDLPDUH
Teorema lui Huyghens GHVFULH OHJ WXUD GLQWUH LQHU LD LQWUDFODVH úL LQHU LD LQWHUFODVH
℘w + ℘b = ℘ (6.41)
&X DOWH FXYLQWH VXPD LQHU LLORU LQWHUFODVH úL LQWUDFODVH SHQWUX RULFH SDUWL LR nare a
PXO LPLL n de puncte în kFODVHHVWHFRQVWDQW úLHJDO FXLQHU LDWRWDO DQRUXOXLGHSXQFWH
ÌQ DFHVW FRQWH[W SUREOHPD PD[LPL] ULL LQHU LHL LQWHUFODVH ℘b HVWH HFKLYDOHQW FX
QXP U GH FODVH &HD PDL EXQ SDUWL LH vQk FODVH YD DYHD vQWRWGHDXQD R LQHU LH LQWHUFODVH PDL
PDUH GHFkW FHD PDL EXQ SDUWL LH vQk+1 FODVH GHFL YD IL ³PDL SX LQ EXQ ´ /D OLPLW FXP
fiecare indiviG SRDWH IL FRQVLGHUDW R VLQJXU FODV YRP RE LQH ℘w = 0, deoarece fiecare
LQGLYLG HVWH FKLDU FHQWUXO GH JUHXWDWH DO FODVHL VDOH 1RL YRP F XWD R vPS U LUH vQ k clase
stabilite a-SULRUL SRUQLQG GH OD R SDUWL LH GH VWDUW DOHDWRDUH úL DPHOLRUkQG VXFFHVLY
“peUIRUPDQ HOH³DFHVWHLD
9RP SUH]HQWD GRX PHWRGH GH FODVLILFDUH úL DQXPH PHWRGD ³FHQWUHORU PRELOH´ úL
Pas 2 ÌQ MXUXO ILHF UXL FHQWUX VH JUXSHD] LQGLYL]LL GLQ PXO LPH FDUH VXQW FHL PDL
DSURSLD L *HRPHWULF DFHDVWD VH UHGXFH OD vPS U LUHD VSD LXOXL vQ k zone definite în planul
mediatoarelor segmentelor cicj.
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
Pas 4. 6H FRPSDU LQHU LD LQWUDFODVH RE LQXW GXS JUXSDUH FX FHD RE LQXW OD SDVXO
DQWHULRU 'DF DFHDVWD nu estH PDL EXQ DWXQFL QH RSULP úL FRQVLGHU P SDUWL LD RE LQXW OD
2EVHUYD LH ÌQ SUDFWLF V D GHPRQVWUDW IDSWXO F DFHVW DOJRULWP FRQYHUJH UDSLG F WUH
-
VROX LDILQDO vQ GHLWHUD LLGHRDUHFHODILHFDUHHWDS LQHU LDLQWUDFODVHVHPLFúRUHD]
-
,QFRQYHQLHQWXO DFHVWHL PHWRGH HVWH F VH SRW RE LQH FODVH YLGH FX DOWH FXYLQWH YRP
vQ FD]XO PHWRGHL FHQWUHORU PRELOH FODVD HVWH GHILQLW SULQWU -un singur punct, respectiv centrul
V XGHJUHXWDWHFDUHHVWHIRDUWHSRVLELOV QXFRLQFLG FXQLFLXQXOGLQLQGLYL]LLGLQPXO LPH
Pas 2. 3HQWUX SXQFWHOH DOHVH DQWHULRU VH JUXSHD] LQGLYL]LL GLQ PXO LPH vQ UDSRUW FX
GLVWDQ HOHGHODDFHúWLDODQXFOHH
Pas 4. ÌQ FDGUXO ILHF UHL FODVH VH DOHJ DOWH q puncte, reprezentative pentru clasa
UHVSHFWLY $FHVWHSXQFWHYRUIRUPDQRXOQXFOHX
Pas 5. 3HQWUX QRLOH QXFOHH VH IDFH R UHJUXSDUH D LQGLYL]LORU PXO LPLL LQkQG FRQW GH
Pas 6. 6H FDOFXOHD] LQHU LD LQWHUFODVH SHQWUX FODVHOH QRX IRUPDWH 'DF DFHDVWD HVWH
PDL PDUH GHFkW FHD RE LQXW DQWHULRU DWXQFL QH RSULP 'DF QX YRP UHOXD DOJRULWPXO GH OD
pasul 4.
3HQWUXDSXWHDGHUXODDFHVWDOJRULWPDYHPQHYRLHGHWUHLIXQF LL
2EVHUYD LH &D úL vQ FD]XO PHWRGHL FHQWUHORU PRELOH FDOLWDWHD XQHL SDUWL LL GHSLQGH GH
9RP REVHUYD F YRU H[LVWD LQGLYL]L FDUH VH YRU JUXSD SHUPDQHQW vQ DFHOHDúL FODVH LQGLIHUHQW
GH SXQFWHOH GH SOHFDUH $FHVWH JUXSXUL GH LQGLYL]L VH QXPHVF ³IRUPH IRUWH´ DOH PXO LPLL GH
3UREOHPD GH ED] HVWH DFHHD F QXP UXO IRUPHORU IRUWH HVWH GLIHULW GH k QXP UXO
$FHVWH PHWRGH SHUPLW DQDOL]D úL SDUWL LRQDUHD UDSLG vQ k clase a indivizilor unei
PXO LPL vQV DUH LQFRQYHQLHQWXO RE LQHULL XQXL QXP U IL[DW GH FODVH 'DF DFHVW QXP U QX
ÌQ FD]XO vQ FDUH QXP UXO GH LQGLYL]L GLQ PXO LPH HVWH IRDUWH PDUH DWXQFL HVWH PDL
6.4.2 &ODVLILFDUHDLHUDUKLF
ÌQ UDSRUW FX SXQFWXO GH SOHFDUH FODVLILFDUHD LHUDUKLF VH SRDWH IDFH SULQ PHWRGH
mic de clase.
0HWRGHOHGHVFHQGHQWHSRUQHVFGHODDFRQVLGHUDPXO LPHDLQL LDO FDRVLQJXU FODV úL
3ULQFLSLXO GH ED] HVWH DFHOD DO FRQVWUXLULL SHQWUX vQFHSXWD n clase, apoi a n-1 clase,
n-2 clase etc, clase ce se includ în sens ascendent. 6LVWHPXO GH JUXSDUH YD IL XUP WRUXO GDW
ILLQG R SDUWL LH vQ k + 1 clase, gruparea în k FODVH VH YD RE LQH UHJUXSkQG GRX GLQ FODVHOH
GLQPXO LPHDDQDOL]DW
În acest caz avem de-D IDFH FX FODVLILFDUHD LHUDUKLF GHRDUHFH ILHFDUH FODV D XQHL
Exemplul 1 )LH PXO LPHD GH puncte (indivizi) a, b, c, d, e. Vom avea succesiv
XUP WRDUHOHSDUWL LLUHSUH]HQWDWHvQILJXUD
Pk UHSUH]LQW SDUWL LDk, unde k LQGLF QXP UXO GHFODVH RE LQXW vQ PRPHQWXO UHVSHFWLY
DO FODVLILF ULL &X FkW LQGLFHOH k HVWH PDL PDUH FX DWkW SDUWL LD HVWH PDL HWHURJHQ 'H
FH LD YDORULOH $FHVW LQGLFDWRU VH QXPHúWH grad de agregare úLDUDW QLYHOXO
LHUDUKLFSHFDUHVHDIO FODVDUHVSHFWLY
Macroeconomie. Decizii strategie
P5 = a/b/c/d/e 4
P4 = ab/c/d/e 2,5
P3 = ab/cd/e 2
P2 = ab/cde 0,5
P1 = abcde
0
a b c d e
Figura 6.5
'DF VH FXQRDúWD DUERUHOH GH FODVLILFDUH VH SRDWH UH LQH vQ RULFH PRPHQW R SDUWL LH
de clase.
3ULQFLSDOD SUREOHP D PHWRGHORU GH FODVLILFDUH LHUDUKLF R FRQVWLWXLH GHILQLUHD
7R L DOJRULWPLL GH FODVLILFDUH LHUDUKLF DX vQ JHQHUDO DFHHDúL GHVI úXUDUH OD ILHFDUH
ÌQ FRQGL LOH vQ FDUH LQGLYL]LL VXQW UHSUH]HQWD L SULQ SXQFWH vQWU XQ VSD LX HXFOLGLDQ
-
SXWHPGHILQLFDOLWDWHDXQHLSDUWL LLSULQLQWHUPHGLXOLQHU LHLLQWHUFODVHVDXLQWUDFODVH$PY ]XO
$VWIHO FULWHULXO GXS FDUH YRP IDFH JUXSDUHD YD IL XUP WRUXO YRP JUXSD DFHOH FODVH
JUHXWDWHDOILHF U ei clase la centrul de greutate g al norului de puncte. Fie A úLB GRX FODVHFH
YRUILUHXQLWHúLgA respectiv gB FHQWUHOHORUGHJUHXWDWHúLpA respectiv pB ponderile claselor în
WRWDOÌQDLQWHDUHXQLULLDFHVWRUDLQHU LDLQWHUFODVHHVWHGHVFULV SULQsuma a doi termeni:
p A ⋅ d 2 (g A ; g ) + p B ⋅ d 2 (g B ; g ). (6.42)
p A ⋅ d 2 (g A ; g ) + p B ⋅ d 2 (g B ; g ) − (p A + p B )⋅ d 2 (g AB ; g ) =
p A ⋅ pB (6.44)
= ⋅ d 2 (g A ; g B )
p A + pB
p A ⋅ g A + pB ⋅ g B
deoarece g AB = . (6.45)
p A + pB
'HDLFLREVHUY PF
p ⋅p
d 2 (g ; g AB ) = ⋅ d 2 (g A ; g ) + ⋅ d 2 (g B ; g ) − A B ⋅ d 2 (g A ; g B ) (6.46)
pA pB
p A + pB p A + pB p A + pB
gA gAB gB
Figura 6.6
p A ⋅ pB
δ (A, B ) = ⋅ d 2 (g A ; g B ). (6.47)
p A + pB
'DF C HVWH R D WUHLD FODV DWXQFL GLVWDQ D GLQWUH FODVD C úL UHXQLXQHD FODVHORU A úL B
va fi:
• vQSULPDHWDS VHvQORFXLHVFGLVWDQ HOH d dintre punctele eiúL ej prin δij GLVWDQ HOH
modificate prin:
pi ⋅ p j
δ ij = ⋅ d 2 (ei ; e j ). (6.49)
pi + p j
• vQ HWDSD D GRXD VH YRU F XWD LQGLYL]LL SHQWUX FDUH GLVWDQ D ij HVWH PLQLP úL VH
• VH YD FRQWLQXD UHJUXSkQG FODVHOH GXS SULQFLSLXO SUH]HQWDW DQWHULRU úL UHOD LLOH GH
calcul (6.48-6.49).
B) 'LVWDQ HQRQHXFOLGLHQH
SHQWUX FDOFXOXO GLVWDQ HL GLQWUH FODVH 9RP GHILQL GLVWDQ D GLQWUH GRX FODVH A úL B în trei
PRGDOLW L
- criteriul mediei :
d (A; B ) = ∑∑ d (e ,e ),
1
ei ∈ A , e j ∈ B ; (6.52)
p A ⋅ pB
i j
i j
5HOD LD UHSHFW iv criteriul inf, WLQGH V IDYRUL]H]H UHJUXSDUHD D GRX FODVH FH
5HOD LD UHVSHFWLY FULWHULXO sup, UHPHGLD] vQ SDUWH DFHDVW SUREOHP vQV
H[DJHUHD] vQ GLUHF LD RSXV UHVSHFWLY SULQ IDSWXO F YD FRPSDUD SXQFWHOH FHOH PDL
Tabelul 6.13
a b c d e
a 0 3 7 3 4
b 3 0 4 4 1
c 7 4 0 2 6
d 3 4 2 0 ½
e 4 1 6 1/2 0
Vom clasiILFD DFHDVW PXO LPH IRORVLQG FHOH WUHL FULWHULL GH JUXSDUH 5H]XOWDWHOH VXQW
4,75
3 7
2 3,3
1 4
2,5
1/ 3
2 1/2
0
d e b c 0
a 1/2
d e b a c
Criteriul inf
0 Criteriul mediei
d e b a c
Criteriul sup
Figura 6.7
♦ P4 = a/b/c/de
d ( a ; b ) = 3 d (b; c ) = 4 d (c ; d ) = 2
d (a ; c ) = 7 d (b; d ) = 4 d (c ; e ) = 6
d (d;e) = ½ (min) deoarece: d (a ; d ) = 3 d (b; e ) = 1
d (a ; e ) = 4
♦ P3 = a/c/bdc deoarece:
♦ P2 =a/cbde deoarece
ÌQPRGDQDORJVHFDOFXOH] úLSHQWUXFHOHODOWHFULWHULLGHFODVLILFDUHQLYHOXOGHDJUHJDUH
úLJUXSDUHDVSHFLILF
2EVHUY P F vQ FHOH WUHL FODVLILF UL GRDU d úL e se grupea] PHUHX – deci vor forma
acestora se va observa repetarea anumitor grupuri de indivizi, atunci acestea vor forma clase
RPRJHQH FDUH UH]LVW OD RULFH PRGLILFDUH D FULWHULXOXL ÌQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH VH RE LQ GLIHUHQ H
PDUL vQWUH FODVLILF UL DWXQFL HVWH SRVLELO FD PXO LPHD GH LQGLYL]L V QX SRDW IL FODVLILFDW
calitative.
&RQVLGHU P GDWHOH FX SULYLUH OD FKHOWXLHOLOH SXEOLFH SUH]HQWDWH vQ SDUDJUDIXO 9RP
S VWUD PHWULFD D1 / s 2 úL YRP FDOFXOD GLVWDQ HOH GLQWUH FHL GH LQGLYL]L FDUH vQ FD]XO QRVWUX
VXQW DQLL GXS FDUH vL YRP FODVLILFD GXS PHWRGD :DUG 3RQGHULOH DQLORU VXQW FRQVLGHUDWH
HJDOHLDUFODVHOHVXQWQXPHURWDWHGHODOD&RQIRUPWDEHOXOXLGLVWDQ HORUDUH]XOWDW
R SULP FODVLILFDUH SUH]HQWDW vQ WDEHOXO $QLL DX IRVW JUXSD L vQ UDSRUW FX GLVWDQ HOH
dintre HL GH H[PSOX FHL PDL DSURSLD L VXQW DQLL – 1906, apoi 1959 – 1962 etc. Suma
QLYHOHORUGHDJUHJDUHHVWH UHVSHFWLYILHFDUHQLYHO HVWHHJDOFXVXPDSLHUGHULORUGHLQHU LH
FX LQHU LD WRWDO D QRUXOXL GH SXQFWH HJDO FX QXP UXO GH FDUDFWHULVWLFL GHRDUHFH V -a
FRQVLGHUDWGUHSWPHWULF D1 / s 2 ) .
Tabelul 6.14
Nr. Clasei Elemente reunite Nivel de agregare
25 1900 1906 0.02
26 1959 1962 0.03
27 1909 1925 0.04
28 1890 1927 0.06
29 1932 1935 0.06
30 1965 1968 0.07
31 1956 1926 0.08
32 1912 1928 0.09
33 1947 1953 0.11
34 1903 1932 0.13
35 1923 1926 0.13
36 1929 1935 0.14
37 1971 1930 0.18
38 1938 1929 0.18
39 1880 1920 0.24
40 1950 1933 0.39
41 1872 1934 0.40
42 1931 1937 0.42
43 1939 1941 0.43
44 1936 1938 0.46
45 1940 1942 1.09
46 1943 1944 1.94
47 1945 1946 4.31