4.

Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.1. Ritm mediu anual de convergen n UE10
Rata prognozat de cretere a PIB/locuitor relativ la PIB/locuitor al zonei euro pentru perioada 2012-2013
2011
BG
CZ
EE
LV
LT
HU
PL
RO
SI
SL

1.5
0.3
1.9
5.6
3.3
0.8
1.7
2.2
-0.6
0.4

2012
procente
2.1
1.3
2.2
2.8
2.9
1.4
2.7
2.2
0.8
2.2

2013
1.9
1.1
2.2
2.4
2.3
1.1
1.7
1.9
0.8
1.8

PIB/locuitor al statelor din ECE relativ la PIB/locuitor al zonei euro (2011)

2011
BG
CZ
EE
LV
LT
HU
PL
RO
SI
SL

42.0
74.0
62.0
53.9
57.3
60.9
60.3
45.3
77.5
68.4

2012
procente
44.1
76.3
65.2
57.5
61.2
62.9
64.1
47.6
78.9
72.0

Sursa: Eurostat, calcule BNR

2013
46.1
78.4
68.7
60.8
64.5
64.5
66.6
49.7
80.3
75.1

euro pentru perioada 2012-2013

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.2. Evoluia unor dezechilibre monitorizate de CE prin tabloul de bord
2009 2010 2011
procente
Datoria sectorului
privat (% PIB)
Datoria public
(% PIB)
Rata omajului
(medie pe 3 ani)
Costul unitar nominal
cu fora de munc
(medie pe 3 ani)

124.0 78.0
24.0 31.0 33.0
6.4

6.6

7.2

45.9 36.6 13.0

Sursa: Comisia European, BCE

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.3. Datoria public i componentele acesteia
Datoria
Datoria
Datoria
Datorie public
administraiei administraiei
administraiei
(% PIB, scala
centrale centrale locale
din dreapta)
termen scurt termen lung
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012/06
Sursa: MFP

9.6
11.7
12.8
13.8
14.3

mld. lei
12.8
27.0
39.1
44.4
36.0

46.6
79.7
107.5
134.6
159.6

procente
13.4
23.6
30.5
33.3
34.6

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.4. Evoluia creditrii sectorului public i a companiilor nefinanciare

Sector public
(% n total
activ sector
bancar)

2009
2010
2011
2012/07
Sursa: BNR

Sector real companii

nefinanciare
(% n total
activ sector
bancar)

procente
13.4
15.7
17.6
19.3

27.5
27.2
29.9
29.7

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.5. Ritmul real de cretere a creditului total acordat companiilor i populaiei de ctre instituiile financiare interne

Mar/2009
Jun/2009
Sep/2009
Dec/2009
Mar/2010
Jun/2010
Sep/2010
Dec/2010
Mar/2011
Jun/2011
Sep/2011
Dec/2011
Mar/2012
Jun/2012

Companii Companii Populaie

lei
valut*
lei
procente
13.0
34.1
13.0
0.4
24.7
4.2
-6.1
15.1
-4.5
-3.3
10.0
-6.0
-3.2
1.7
-6.1
-0.7
5.1
-5.8
-0.1
1.7
-5.7
2.5
0.8
-7.0
2.8
-1.5
-7.5
7.8
-2.0
-5.3
10.9
3.3
-4.2
11.7
2.5
-2.2
10.8
4.2
-0.8
10.2
2.0
-2.4

Populaie
valut*

* serii ajustate pentru variaia cursului de schimb

Sursa: BNR, calcule BNR

19.7
3.8
-5.4
-3.5
1.6
6.1
6.2
5.5
2.9
2.1
2.4
3.0
3.7
1.1

ei de ctre instituiile financiare interne i strine (variaie anual)

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.6. Evoluia creditului total acordat companiilor i populaiei n funcie de creditor i moned

Credite lei
bnci

dec.2009
dec.2010
dec.2011
iun.2012

18.5
17.7
18.4
18.2

Sursa: BNR, calcule BNR

Credite
valut bnci

Credite lei
IFN

Credite valut
IFN

Credite de la
instituiile
financiare
nerezidente

28.0
30.5
32.4
32.2

mld. EUR
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3

5.8
4.6
4.1
3.7

18.4
18.2
18.3
18.7

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.7. Evoluia standardelor de creditare
Romnia Zona Euro
sold conjunctural procente
07T4

9.0

39.0

0.0

49.0

30.3

43.0

66.0

64.0

67.1

64.0

57.6

43.0

34.4

21.0

20.8

8.0

13.3

3.0

7.0

3.0

3.3

11.0

-0.6

4.0

7.6

0.0

-8.9

4.0

-25.3

2.0

0.0

16.0

2.8

35.0

8.0

9.0

12T2

0.0

10.0

07T4

-27.8
-35.2
-15.6
0.0
100.0
44.4
39.4
32.5
7.6
2.8
4.8
-7.7
4.6
1.1

21.0
33.0
30.0
36.0
41.0
28.0
22.0
14.0
3.0
10.0
10.0
0.0
9.0
13.0

08T2
08T4
09T2
09T4
Companii
10T2
10T4
11T2
11T4

08T2
08T4
09T2
Credite
imobiliare
populaie

09T4
10T2
10T4

populaie

11T2
11T4
12T2
07T4
08T2
08T4
09T2
Credite de
consum
populaie

09T4
10T2
10T4
11T2
11T4
12T2

-21.0
-5.6
8.7
39.4
54.1

9.0
18.0
29.0
17.0
13.0

9.5
-15.8
1.7
41.3
100.0
49.3
37.5
50.7
36.6
29.5
5.7
2.4
6.0
-15.0
-21.3
-11.9
3.4
59.9
43.9

10.0
19.0
24.0
30.0
44.0
26.0
22.0
13.0
10.0
11.0
11.0
0.0
2.0
7.0
7.0
10.0
13.0
5.0
7.0

Not: Valorile pozitive ale soldului conjunctural indic nsprirea standardelor de creditare.

Sursa: BNR Sondajul privind creditarea companiilor nefinanciare i populaiei, august 2012; BCE The Euro Area Bank Le

012; BCE The Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, iulie 2012

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.8. Evoluia cererii de credit

07T4
08T2
08T4
09T2
Credite
companii

09T4
10T2
10T4
11T2
11T4
12T2
07T4
08T2
08T4
09T2

Credite 09T4
imobiliare
populaie 10T2
10T4
11T2
11T4
12T2

Romnia Zona Euro

sold conjunctural procente
72.0
2.0
41.0
-17.0
43.6
-16.0
4.9
-26.0
18.7
-43.0
-46.8
-33.0
-41.5
-30.0
-39.5
-20.0
-46.2
-8.0
-29.1
-13.0
20.2
-2.0
-8.0
7.0
21.9
10.0
35.0
19.0
18.2
4.0
13.7
-8.0
-5.8
-5.0
-4.6
-30.0
6.8
-25.0
71.5
27.9
-13.5
-7.5
-85.4
-100.0
-24.6
12.0
10.9
-36.5
-15.4
-23.9
5.6
59.1
-6.7
8.8
5.7
-50.4
54.5

-36.0
-57.0
-56.0
-63.0
-63.0
-29.0
6.0
10.0
16.0
-2.0
24.0
10.0
23.0
-10.0
-3.0
-24.0
-27.0
-43.0
-21.0

07T4
08T2
08T4
09T2
Credit de 09T4
consum
populaie 10T2
10T4
11T2
11T4
12T2

-22.1
49.7
12.2
30.9
-100.0
-96.6
-63.0
-18.9
20.5
17.2
-1.0
-84.2
-62.4
41.2
43.4
-4.6
-13.7
-39.2
49.2

-11.0
-13.0
-21.0
-21.0
-50.0
-34.0
-23.0
-9.0
-10.0
-13.0
1.0
-6.0
-2.0
-4.0
-8.0
-15.0
-16.0
-26.0
-27.0

Not: Valorile pozitive ale soldului conjunctural relev creterea cererii de c redit.

Sursa: BNR Sondajul privind creditarea companiilor nefinanciare i populaiei, august 2012; BCE The Euro Area Bank Le

E The Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, iulie 2012

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.9. Creditul acordat de bnci i IFN autohtone, n funcie de destinaie i moneda de denominare
a) companii nefinanciare

Credite de trezorerie

Credite pt. finanarea

stocurilor i pentru
echipamente
Credite pt. investiii
imobiliare

Alte credite

Sursa: CRC, calcule BNR

2009
2010
2011
iun.12
2009
2010
2011
iun.12
2009
2010
2011
iun.12
2009
2010
2011
iun.12

lei
valut
mld. EUR
5.0
5.1
4.9
5.4
5.4
5.8
5.7
5.8
1.9
7.7
2.1
7.1
2.2
7.0
2.1
6.0
0.5
3.3
0.5
3.8
0.5
3.8
0.5
4.1
1.1
2.7
1.0
3.0
1.2
3.9
1.2
4.4

i moneda de denominare

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.9. Creditul acordat de bnci i IFN autohtone, n funcie de destinaie i moneda de denominare
b) populaie

Credit ipotecar

Credit consum
garantat
cu ipoteci
Credit consum
negarantat
cu ipoteci

2009
2010
2011
iun.12
2009
2010
2011
iun.12
2009
2010
2011
iun.12

lei
valut
mld. EUR
0.4
5.4
0.4
6.5
0.4
7.5
0.4
7.7
0.6
6.0
0.6
6.3
0.5
5.4
0.5
5.8
9.0
3.7
8.2
3.3
8.0
3.3
7.6
2.9

Sursa: Bilanul monetar, Bilanul IFN, CRC, Biroul de Credit, calcule BNR

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.10. Evoluia indicatorului credite/depozite, pe monede, sectorul neguvernamental
LTD total
Jan/2007
Feb/2007
Mar/2007
Apr/2007
May/2007
Jun/2007
Jul/2007
Aug/2007
Sep/2007
Oct/2007
Nov/2007
Dec/2007
Jan/2008
Feb/2008
Mar/2008
Apr/2008
May/2008
Jun/2008
Jul/2008
Aug/2008
Sep/2008
Oct/2008
Nov/2008
Dec/2008
Jan/2009
Feb/2009
Mar/2009
Apr/2009
May/2009
Jun/2009
Jul/2009
Aug/2009
Sep/2009
Oct/2009
Nov/2009
Dec/2009
Jan/2010
Feb/2010

98.0
99.5
100.4
103.8
108.4
108.6
110.4
113.0
117.7
118.6
118.9
114.8
119.4
120.9
123.3
122.9
125.1
126.6
127.3
129.9
133.5
137.3
137.3
130.8
133.9
134.0
131.5
129.8
128.1
125.3
124.8
123.1
123.0
124.2
122.8
119.2
121.3
120.6

LTD lei LTD valut

procente
73.3
152.3
75.7
150.2
75.9
153.3
78.1
160.2
82.3
165.2
81.5
171.2
81.1
178.3
80.3
187.5
83.3
192.8
84.7
190.5
82.7
194.4
77.3
194.3
80.9
195.4
82.5
195.6
83.2
203.6
86.6
188.5
87.1
197.7
86.3
204.5
88.8
201.4
89.3
209.4
89.4
217.8
93.8
218.3
92.3
221.6
84.7
217.4
87.5
210.1
87.0
211.9
85.7
209.0
84.4
208.0
82.6
208.4
79.5
208.0
78.8
206.4
77.5
203.2
79.7
194.4
80.2
193.9
79.6
191.7
77.6
184.7
79.8
186.5
77.6
190.7

Mar/2010
Apr/2010
May/2010
Jun/2010
Jul/2010
Aug/2010
Sep/2010
Oct/2010
Nov/2010
Dec/2010
Jan/2011
Feb/2011
Mar/2011
Apr/2011
May/2011
Jun/2011
Jul/2011
Aug/2011
Sep/2011
Oct/2011
Nov/2011
Dec/2011
Jan/2012
Feb/2012
Mar/2012
Apr/2012
May/2012
Jun/2012

119.3
119.8
120.6
123.9
123.1
122.6
122.4
122.4
120.8
118.0
119.2
119.9
119.0
119.6
120.0
122.6
121.9
121.1
122.3
123.0
123.5
119.1
118.3
117.9
118.2
117.3
117.4
118.9

Sursa: BNR, calcule BNR

75.0
73.5
73.5
74.4
75.0
73.8
73.2
73.4
71.3
68.2
69.2
69.8
69.8
70.6
69.5
69.5
68.7
68.2
67.5
67.6
68.4
65.6
63.9
63.3
63.9
62.9
63.1
65.5

194.7
200.6
201.0
204.9
203.0
204.1
204.7
203.9
204.3
206.3
207.5
209.1
207.8
209.2
214.5
222.7
223.8
223.6
228.9
232.7
229.6
225.3
229.2
230.0
228.8
227.2
224.1
222.0

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.11. Indicatorul credite/resurse, pe monede i maturiti, iunie 2012, sectoarele companiilor nefinanciare i pop
maxim 1 lun (fr
soldul permanent)
Credite / (depozite clasice + lei
resurse externe)
valut
lei doar depozite
clasice
Credite / depozite clasice
valut doar depozite
clasice
Sursa: BNR, calcule BNR

29.9
24.2

1-12 luni
procente
34.2
41.3

peste 1 an ( include
soldul permanent)
95.1
194.6

31.9

38.5

125.9

44.6

59.9

957.7

aniilor nefinanciare i populaiei

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.12. Evoluia finanrii IMM i corporaii, de la bnci i IFN rezidente i bnci nerezidente

Jun/2008

Jun/2009

Bnci
rezidente

Jun/2010

Jun/2011

Jun/2012

Jun/2008

Jun/2009

IMM

Bnci
externe

Jun/2010

Jun/2011

Jun/2012

Jun/2010

IFN

Agricultur

Industria
prelucrtoare i
extractiv

0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1

3.6
3.9
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2

0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9

0.9
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.4

5.1
5.7
7.6
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.1
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.3

0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2

0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5

1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1

0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7

Servicii i
utiliti
mld. EUR
2.6
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0

Imobiliare i
construcii
4.0
4.5
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.4
5.0
4.8
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.0
5.9
6.0
6.0

IFN
Jun/2011

Jun/2012

Jun/2008

Jun/2009

Bnci
rezidente

Jun/2010

Jun/2011

Jun/2012

Jun/2008

Corporaii

Jun/2009

Bnci
externe

Jun/2010

Jun/2011

Jun/2012

Jun/2010

IFN

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3

0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3

1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9

0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4

2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.0

1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.4

0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8

0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

1.4
1.4
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.6
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1

0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

IFN
Jun/2011

Jun/2012
Sursa: BNR, calcule BNR

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

i bnci nerezidente

Comer

5.0
5.6
5.9
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8

0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.13. Evoluia contului curent agregat i pe componente
Bunuri

BG
HU
PL
SK
RO
UE-10

2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011

-7.7
-5.1
3.3
4.0
-2.5
-2.7
0.2
3.5
-6.1
-5.5
-1.9
-1.5

Sursa: Eurostat, calcule BNR

Servicii

Venituri

5.6
5.9
3.0
3.2
0.7
1.2
-1.1
-0.5
0.3
0.3
1.6
1.8

% PIB
-3.1
-4.3
-5.5
-6.3
-3.6
-3.9
-1.9
-2.4
-1.5
-1.7
-3.9
-4.2

Transferuri
curente

Cont
curent

4.2
4.4
0.4
0.5
0.8
1.1
-0.6
-0.5
2.9
2.6
1.2
1.2

-1.0
0.9
1.2
1.4
-4.6
-4.3
-3.5
0.1
-4.4
-4.4
-3.1
-2.6

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.14. Ritmul anual de cretere al exporturilor, importurilor i al PIB n rile UE-10

BG
HU
PL
SK
RO
UE-10

2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011

Exporturi Importuri PIB (scala

FOB
CIF
din dreapta)
procente
procente
33.0
14.0
0.4
30.0
21.3
1.7
21.0
19.3
1.3
11.9
10.8
1.7
23.1
25.3
3.9
11.7
11.1
4.3
21.3
22.9
4.2
16.8
13.2
3.3
28.4
20.3
(1.6)
20.6
17.0
2.5
23.8
23.5
2.5
16.2
14.4
3.3

Sursa: Eurostat, calcule BNR

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.15. Datoria companiilor de comer exterior

Credite
externe

Companii net Companii net

exportatoare importatoare
mld. EUR
1.2
2.8
T2 08
1.3
2.9
1.7
3.4
T4 08
1.8
3.4
1.8
3.3
T2 09
1.8
3.1
1.8
3.3
T2 09
1.9
3.3
2.2
3.4
financiare
T2 10
2.3
3.9
2.5
3.7
T4 10
2.5
3.7
2.4
3.7
T2 11
2.2
3.7
2.3
3.9
T4 11
2.3
3.8
2.3
3.8
T2 12
2.4
4.0

T2 08
T4 08
T2 09
T2 09
mam-fiic

T2 10
T4 10
T2 11
T4 11
T2 12

T2 08
T4 08

Credite
interne de la
bnci

financiare

2.2
2.2
2.9
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1

2.1
2.4
2.8
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.1
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.8

1.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
1.9

4.2
4.4
4.7
4.4
4.3

T2 09
Credite
interne de la
bnci

T2 09
financiare

T2 10
T4 10
T2 11
T4 11
T2 12

T2 08
T4 08
T2 09
T2 09
ndatorare*

total

T2 10
T4 10
T2 11
T4 11
T2 12

1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.4

4.2
4.1
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.8
5.1
5.3
5.6
5.7
5.7

5.3
5.5
6.8
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.5
6.7
6.7
7.1
7.0
6.9
7.3
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.9

9.1
9.7
10.8
10.4
10.3
10.3
10.6
11.6
12.0
12.7
12.4
12.5
12.7
13.4
13.7
13.9
14.0
14.5

* Nu include ndatorarea de la IFN autohtone

Sursa: BNR, calcule BNR

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.16. Indicatori pentru companiile de comer exterior vs. total companii nefinanciare*
Rentabilitatea
capitalurilor
(%)

Rata creditelor
neperformante
(%)

Indicatorul de
prghie
(datorii/capitaluri)

11.6
15.0
8.7
8.2

2.9
4.4
3.3
17.6

2.1
1.1
1.2
2.4

Companii de export - zona euro

Companii net exportatoare
Companii net importatoare
Total companii

* Rentabilitatea capitalurilor i indicatorul de prghie sunt calculai pentru anul 2011, iar rata creditelor neperformante este calculat
Sursa: INS, MFP, BNR, calcule BNR

iar rata creditelor neperformante este calculat la iulie 2012.

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.17. Exporturile romneti dup criteriul valorii adugate ncorporate i dependena companiilor net exportatoare d

Low-tech

Dec/2008
Mar/2009
Jun/2009
Sep/2009
Dec/2009
Mar/2010
Jun/2010
Sep/2010
Dec/2010
Mar/2011
Jun/2011
Sep/2011
Dec/2011
Mar/2012

33.3
32.3
31.8
29.8
26.6
25.7
24.7
24.5
24.3
23.7
23.8
23.9
23.9
24.3

Ponderea
Medium low- Medium
High-tech importurilor n
tech
high-tech
exporturi
procente
29.6
35.7
1.4
45.2
27.5
36.8
3.3
45.1
24.6
38.2
5.4
45.2
21.4
41.0
7.8
44.6
19.6
43.4
10.4
44.0
19.9
43.7
10.7
44.4
20.4
43.6
11.3
45.0
20.7
42.9
11.9
44.9
21.0
42.4
12.3
44.8
21.3
42.5
12.5
44.5
21.8
42.0
12.3
43.9
22.1
41.9
12.1
43.7
22.4
42.0
11.8
42.8
22.4
42.4
10.9
42.0

Sursa: INS, calcule BNR

orate i dependena companiilor net exportatoare de importuri

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.18. Evoluia datoriei externe romneti
Datorie
Datorie
extern
extern
privat
privat
financiar nefinanciar
dec.2008
dec.2009
dec.2010
dec.2011
iun.2012
Sursa: BNR

31.1
27.3
27.4
26.6
26.1

mld. EUR
30.7
34.6
37.4
39.3
39.3

Datoria
extern
public

10.6
19.3
27.6
32.6
33.6

Datorie
extern total
(scala din
dreapta)
mld. EUR
72.4
81.2
92.5
98.4
99.0

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.19. Situaia financiar a companiilor nefinanciare

Rata creditelor
neperformante

Rentabilitatea Datorii/Capital
capitalului
propriu (scala din
(ROE)
dreapta)

procente
Companii
Companii
Companii
Companii

- total
- cu investiie strin direct
- cu datorie extern
- cu datorie extern TS

Sursa: MFP, BNR, calcule BNR

17.6
5.8
10.0
8.9

8.2
10.3
4.1
3.4

indice
2.4
1.5
2.7
2.4

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.20. Fluxurile nete de capital pentru rile din regiune (procent n PIB)

Contul de
capital

Investiii
strine
directe

PL

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

1.1
1.1
1.6
1.8
2.2

4.3
1.9
1.9
0.7
1.8

Investiii
de
portofoliu
% n PIB
-1.5
-0.5
3.9
5.4
3.1

CZ

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

0.6
0.7
1.4
0.9
0.4

4.9
1.0
1.0
2.5
2.0

RO

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

0.7
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.3

HU

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

BG

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Sursa: Eurostat

Alte
investiii

Modificarea
rezervelor
oficiale

6.6
5.9
3.1
2.0
0.6

-3.0
0.7
-3.4
-3.2
-1.3

-1.5
-0.2
4.3
4.0
0.1

0.0
1.7
-1.4
-1.7
0.3

-0.4
-1.0
-1.6
-1.1
0.5

5.7
6.7
3.0
1.8
1.4

0.4
-0.4
0.4
0.7
1.5

11.2
6.5
2.4
4.7
1.5

-3.6
0.1
-1.0
-2.6
-0.7

0.7
1.0
1.2
1.8
2.1

0.2
2.6
0.1
0.7
-0.1

-1.6
-2.4
-4.1
-0.2
6.5

7.3
16.3
8.8
0.6
-3.5

-0.1
-7.3
-6.1
-3.1
-3.9

-1.9
0.8
1.4
0.8
1.3

28.7
17.5
7.2
2.9
3.1

-1.7
-2.1
-1.8
-1.8
-0.9

16.8
17.0
-2.0
-2.9
-5.1

-9.5
-1.9
1.9
1.1
-0.4

4. Riscurile aferente evoluiilor economice i financiare interne

Grafic 4.21. Ponderea datoriei externe pe termen scurt n rezerve valutare (fr credite intra-companii)

Dec/2008
Dec/2009
Dec/2010
Dec/2011
Mar/2012

Bulgaria Cehia Ungaria Polonia Romnia Romnia*

procente
101.6
73.9
82.0
111.1
70.1
78.5
93.9
58.0
63.9
92.2
39.1
55.1
86.7
56.3
72.9
86.1
39.6
60.3
74.7
69.7
64.7
78.8
46.9
68.8
75.3
70.7
65.7
80.8
43.4
64.4

* include creditele intra-companii pe termen scurt

Sursa: bncile centrale, calcule BNR