CZU: 339.9: 336.7:005 (100+478)(043.3)=161.

1
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, 2013

UNIVERSITATEA LIBER INTERNAIONAL DIN MOLDOVA

Cu titlu de manuscris

CZU: 339.9: 336.7:005

(100+478)(043.3)=161.1
22

IRINA BALINA

EVALUAREA RISCURILOR ECONOMICE N ACTIVITATEA

BANCAR INTERNATIONAL

Specialitatea 08.00.14 Economie mondial;

relaii economice internaionale

Tez de doctor n economie

Conductor tiinific:

Iuri CROTENCO, doctor habilitat

n economie, conf. univ.

Autorul:

BALINA Irina, doctorant

CHIINU, 2013
2

 , , 2013

 ( , , )
ADNOTARE
Irina Balina, Evaluarea riscurilor economice n activitatea bancar internaional,
teza de doctor n domeniul economiei, Chiinu 2013
Structura tezei: teza este expus pe 148 pagini al textului de baz i cuprinde introducerea, trei capitole,
concluzii i recomandri, lista bibliografic cu 169 publicaii, 18 desene, 12 tabele, 22 formule, precum i 19 anexe
ce conin 19 tabele.
Cuvintele cheie: economia mondial, relaii economice internaionale, riscuri economice, metodici
cantitative i calitative, hedging (acoperire), externalizarea, criz financiar global, activitatea bancar
internaional.
Aria de investigare: riscurile economice n economia mondial i relaiile economice internaionale
aplicabile la activitatea bancar internaional.
Scopul tezei: investigarea i elaborarea bazei teoretice i metodologice de influen asupra riscurilor
economice n activitatea bancar internaional i identificarea direciilor prioritare n vederea reducerii aciunilor de
dumping asupra economiei mondiale
Obiectivele tezei: investigarea aspectelor teoretice i a problemelor riscurilor economice n activitatea
bancar internaional; studierea particularitilor evenimentelor ce in de risc i formalizarea principiilor de
clasificare a riscurilor n activitatea bancar internaional; cercetarea consecinelor impactului riscurilor economice
n economia global asupra activitii bancare internaionale; efectuarea analizei particularitilor situaionale ale
sistemului bancar din Republica Moldova sub influena riscurilor economice n condiiile actuale ale conjuncturii
economico-financiare mondiale; elaborarea direciilor de reducere a riscurilor economice n activitatea bancar
internaional, inclusiv i n baza mecanismelor matematice de modelare.
Noutatea tiinific i originalitatea lucrrii reprezint propunerea privind evidenierea noiunii teoretice
riscurile globale ale sistemului internaional bancar ca form de sine stttoare a riscurilor globale n economia
mondial; propunerile privind creterea rolului i importanei organizaiilor internaionale (Fondul Monetar
Internaional i Banca Mondial etc.) prin implementarea recomandrilor acestora, n scopul reducerii impactului
riscurilor economice asupra activitii bancare internaionale, n vederea depirii efectului economiei mozaice;
modificarea clasificrii internaionale a riscurilor de ctre Peter S.Rose cu utilizarea unui nivel global nou de
formalizare i ajustare a unui grup suplimentar de clasificare a riscurilor, cu luarea n cont a riscurilor anului 2013 i
ale decadei ce urmeaz; formularea recomandrilor privind reducerea impactului riscurilor economice i asigurarea
stabilitii sistemice a sistemului naional bancar bazat pe implementarea cerinelor internaionale ale Comitetului
Basel privind supravegherea bancar Basel II i Basel III; elaborarea recomandrilor aferente aciunilor dumping a
riscurilor economice n activitatea internaional a sistemului bancar internaional la capitolul dezvoltrii sferei
investiionale i reglementrii riscurilor n condiiile internaionalizrii fluxurilor financiare.
Abordarea tiinific a investigaiei reprezint studierea aspectelor practico-teoretice de dumping a
riscurilor economice n condiiile actuale de criz i post-criz n dezvoltarea economiei mondiale i elaborarea
abordrilor recomandabile de perfecionare a acestora la nivel mondial, regional i naional.
Importana teoretic li valoarea practic a tezei: Importana teoretic a lucrrii se caracterizeaz prin
aspectele teoretice, metodologice i conceptuale ce extind unghiul de cercetare a chestiunilor ce in de dumpingul
riscurilor economice din activitatea bancar internaional n condiiile de criz i post-criz n dezvoltarea
economiei mondiale. Elaborrile tiinifice coninute n lucrare pot fi utilizate n continuare n cadrul desfurrii
investigaiilor tiinifice n domeniul economiei mondiale i relaiilor economice internaionale, sistemului bancar
internaional, n special, la studierea semnelor de clasificare a riscurilor economice, metodelor analitice de reducere
a acestora, la elaborarea modelelor i scenariilor matematice la analiza situaiilor de risc n condiiile de continu
schimbare (n dinamic). Concluziile i propunerile prezentei tezei pot fi utilizate pentru elaborarea cadrului
normativ legal de dezvoltare a sistemului bancar, n special pentru strategiile, planurile, programele i regulamentele
naionale, colaborarea economic cu rile i grupurile financiare i bancare internaionale, inclusiv i pentru
implementarea standardelor i certificatelor internaionale n practica de administrare a riscurilor din sfera bancar.
Estimarea i implementarea rezultatelor tiinifice:
Aprobarea materialelor tezei s-a efectuat n cadrul seciilor Institutului de Investigaii Strategice n
domeniul Economiei IISE ULIM, laboratorului de cercetri tiinifice al Universitii Slavone, n form de rapoarte
prezentate n cadrul unor conferine tiinifice internaionale i naionale, discursuri la diferite seminare tehnicotiinifice. Importana implementrii rezultatelor este confirmat de documentaia respectiv: n BC Banca Social
S.A. - filialele ciusev i Botanica, Institutul de Investigaii Strategice n domeniul Economiei IISE ULIM,
Universitatea Slavon din Republica Moldova.


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ANNOTATION
Irina Balina, Investigation of economic risks in international banking,
Scientific degree thesis in economics, Chisinau 2013
Thesis structure: The thesis has 148 pages of the main text and includes the introduction, three chapters,
conclusions and recommendations, bibliographical list of 169 publications, 18 figures, 12 tables, 22 formulas, as
well as 19 attachments with 19 tables.
Key words: world economy, the international economic relations, economic risks, quantitative and
qualitative methods, hedging, outsourcing, world crisis, the international banking.
Area of research: economic risks in world economy and the international economic relations of the
international bank activity.
Aim of the thesis: researching and developing theoretical and methodological basis of influence on
economic risks in the international banking and indentifying the priority directions in order to reduce their dumping
impact on the world economy.
The objectives of the thesis: researching the theoretical aspects and issues on economic risks in the
international bank activity; studying the particularities in determining risk events and in formalizing principles of
risk classification in the international banking; investigating the consequences economic risk impact in global
economy on the international banking; conducting analysis of situation particularities of the bank system of the
Republic of Moldova under the impact of economic risks in the conditions of the actual world economical and
financial conjuncture; elaborating directions of economic risk decrease in the international banking, as well as by
applying mechanisms on mathematics modeling.
The scientific novelty and originality of the thesis includes: proposals on determining theoretical concept
of "the global risks of the international banking system" in an independent form of global risks of the world
economy; proposals to increase the role and importance of international organizations (International Monetary Fund,
World Bank etc.) by implementing their recommendations in order to reduce the impact of the economic risks to the
international banking activities and to overcome the effect of "patchwork" economy; the modification of the
traditional risk classification by Peter S.Rose with a new global level of formalization and adjustment of additional
risk classification with regard to the main risks of 2013 and the next decade; proposals for the application of
mathematical modeling of the mechanisms in order to develop ways to reduce economic risks in international
banking; providing recommendations to reduce the impact of economic risks and to ensure banking system stability,
based on the implementation of international requirements of the Basel Committee on bank supervision Basel II and
Basel III; making recommendations on damping economic risks in international activities of the banking system
through the development of the investment sector and risk management in the conditions of internationalizing
financial flows.
The scientific research issue is to study the theoretical and practical damping aspects of economic risks in
actual conditions of crisis and post-crisis development of the world economy and the development of
recommendation approaches for their improving at the global, regional and national levels.
Theoretical significance and practical value of the thesis:
The theoretical value of the thesis is determined by its theoretical, methodological and conceptual
provisions that extend the theoretical research approach to the damping risk issue in international banking of crisis
and post-crisis global economy. The elaborated concepts contained in the thesis can be used for further research in
the world economy and international economic relations, international banking system, in particular in the study of
classifications of economic risks, analytical methods for their decreasing, development of mathematical modeling
and scenario analysis of risk situations in changing conditions (in dynamics). Conclusions and proposals of this
thesis may be used to develop the national regulatory basis governing the economic development of the banking
system, in particular, the national strategies, plans, programs, and regulations for development, economic
cooperation with the countries and the international financial and banking groups, including the implementation of
international standards and certificates in the practice of banking risk management.
Estimation and implementation of scientific results
Approbation of thesis materials was provided within the divisions of the Institute of Strategic Studies in
Economics IISE of the International Independent University of Moldova, scientifically research laboratory of the
Slavonic University, in the form of reports at the international and national scientific conferences, presentations at
the scientific and technical seminars.
The implementation of the scientific results is confirmed by the due documentation: BC Banca Sociala
S.A., its branches Sciusev and Botanica Institute of Strategic Studies in economics IISE ULIM; Slavonic
University of the Republic of Moldova

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41

 Bear Stearns [1]. 2008

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac. 14 2008
Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The Wall Street Journal 50 . [4].
15 2008
( 158- ),
Lehman Brothers.

2009

Washington Mutual (WaMu). WaMu 1889 .

, - .
, $307 , 40-
Continental Illinois National Bank, 1984 . 2010
(Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
- FDIC) 702 - .
11- . 2007
FDIC 76 .
10 .
(. 2.1.),
.
FDIC
. 2008 $17,6 . [19].
FDIC,
, 1991 .
(The Deposit Insurance Fund) 21 ,
[18].

04.10.2009 .,
Handelsblatt Reuters:
, , ,
. ,
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2008 . [1]

. ,
, . ,

42

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.
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.

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Investprivatbank, ,
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48

 2008 .
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2008 . (2,6 . ),
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Banca Social ..,
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.

., 31 2002
16
120 . ($8,3 .);
70 . 120 . ; - 70 .
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BTR Moldova, ICB

49

Banca municipal Chisinu. Petrolbank

Eurocreditbank. 2009 .
.
14
, ( BCR
Fil. Chiinau, - Unibank), 100% (ExibBank, Businessbanca,
Comertbank) (Victoriabank,
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2.2. 31.12.2010 . (. )

Banca Sociala
Banca de Economii
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Victoriabank
Eurocreditbank
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Unibank
Universalbank
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Eximbank
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: [93]

126,7 .
(Universalbank). 2009 . ,
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2008 1 . 270,3 .
($100 .). 2009 0,4 ,
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2,4% - 6 . 453,1 . ($507 .).
2009 .
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.

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. .

: [93]

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-.
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.). , , 3,4%.
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. 179,3 . ($171,2 .).
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2009 . - 51,6%.
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51

.). , ,
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2,9% - 26 . 416,5 . ($2,1 .).
3,7% - 16 . 465,8 . ($1,3 .), 4,9% - 8 .
011,8 . ($630 .).
2010
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1994 , 19.06.2009.
31 2010 ( 2.2.)
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30 2010 ., 1461,90 . . [45]

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2010
: [93]

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52

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);

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54


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57

 7,8%. 2012 , ,
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).
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58

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. ).

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5,4 . ( 13 %) 47 .

. 3 . .
2011 BC Banca Social SA, BC
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de Economii SA.

59

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. , 2011
(, )
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60

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, :
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62

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64

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67

Victoriabank. 40%
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68

, 2012 BC Moldova Agroindbank SA

, ,
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[127].

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11 2012 . 0,93 .
0,71 1,44 (. . .2.1. 2).
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1 2012 .
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Moodys Investors Service 4 2012 .
15 . [110]:
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70

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;
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2013 .
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73

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2.5. 2


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2013 :
I.

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Venture Capital ABIRD Business Ideas Research & Development

76

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:
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, ,
,
. , Lehman brothers
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, ,
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, .
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1.

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.
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), Unibanc (-45 . ), ProCreditBank (-35 . ).
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.
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,
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2012.

. , 2010 .
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, , ,
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. 2011 .
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1.

2012- 2013 :
2012

, , (, )
.
Moodys Investors Service IV 2012 .
15 , ,
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() Credit Suisse Group (),
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), Morgan Stanley ( ), BNP Paribas
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82

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.

S.
,
s, s S , .. S s1 , , s N ,
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85

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,
86

vi

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87

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88

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: http://www.cnews.ru Celent, 2010

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2010 . Dresdner Bank Commerzbank -
, Basel II

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inten. Rolul investiiilor n dezvoltareadurabil a economiei naionale n contextul integrrii

european (2010; Chiinu). 29-30 oct. 2010. Ch.: ASEM, 2010. 275 p. .200 - 205.
120. ..

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http://www.gdm.ru/projects/moreq/MoRoq2010.php [ ]. :
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http://www.kaspersky.ru/news?id=207733691 [ ]. :
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]. : 01.10.2012
135. ., . . : . .

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159

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[ ]. : 01.01.2011

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[ ] : 08.12.2011
159. : ..

http://citforum.ru/security/articles/risk_management/

[ ]. : 07.01.2010
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174

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 11. Banca Sociala A

184

 12. List of main correspondents.

BANCA SOCIALA A
List of main correspondents

12.
Currency

Name of the bank

Country/City

S.W.I.F.T.

Account no.

S.W.I.F.T.-

USD

The Bank of New York Mellon

USA
New York

IRVTUS3NXXX

8900068027

USD

Citibank N.A.

USA
New York

CITIUS33XXX

36129543

EUR
USD
RON

Commerzbank AG

Germany
Frankfurt am Main

COBADEFFXXX

400887008101 EUR
400887008100 USD

Romania

BTRLRO22XXX

RO69BTRL00001B7200867100

Spain
Barcelona

BSABESBBXXX

0901-011895-29

Switzerland

CRESCHZZ80A

0835-0929137-63-000

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55060560

BKAUATWWXXX

51 010 495 701

BHFBDEFFXXX

DE06500202000000729293

Russia

c/a
30101810400000000225

30111810300000000162

Moscow

OPERU Mosc.GTU BR

Russia

INN 7707083893
c/a
30101810200000000593

Moscow

OPERU Mosc.GTU BR

Banca Transilvania SA

Cluj-Napoca

EUR

Banca de Sabadell SA

CHF

Credit Suisse AG

Zurich

EUR

RAIFFEISENBANK
INTERNATIONAL AG

Austria
Viena

EUR

Bank Austria UniCredit Group

Austria

EUR

BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft

Germany

Viena

Frankfurt am Main

CIS
RUB

OAO " "

"Sberbank of Russia"

BIK 044525225

RUB

"-"
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30231810400000000089

BIK 044525593
INN 7728168971
ALFARUMM

"Gazprombank"

BIK 044525823

USD
EURO

USD

Correspondent bank
ZAO Raiffeissenbank
Intermediary bank

STANDARD CHARTERED BANK

Correspondent bank
ZAO Raiffeissenbank

INN 7736011540

30111840400000006467

GAZPRUMM

30111978000000006467

New York USA

SCBLUS33

3582021665001

Moscow Russia

RZBMRUMM

30111840300000000019

185

 12. 12
Currency

EUR

UAH
BYB

CAD

JPY

Name of the bank

Intermediary bank

WACHOVIA BANK NA

Correspondent bank
ZAO Raiffeissenbank
Intermediary bank

RAIFFEISEN ZENTRALBANK
OESTERREICH AG
""
Privatbank
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Belinvestsbank JSC

Correspondent bank
Alfa Bank
Intermediary bank

BANK OF MONTREAL
Correspondent bank
Alfa Bank

Intermediary bank

Country/City

S.W.I.F.T.

Account no.

S.W.I.F.T.-

New York USA

PNBPUS3N

2000193460018

Moscow Russia

RZBMRUMM

30111978100000000013

Vienna Austria

RZBAATWW

001-55.025.928

16002000258001

Ucraina

MFO 305299

Dnepropetrovsk

for Kiev & Kiev distr.

Belarus

cod 153001739

1702080280027

Minsk

UNN 101011189

Moscow Russia

ALFARUMMXXX

30111124700000000032

Toronto Canada

BOFMCAT2XXX

3144-1035-657

Tokyo Japan

BOTKJPJT

653-0411876

Moscow Russia

ALFARUMMXXX

30111578000000000032

Oslo, Norway

DNBANOKK

7001.02.05903

Moscow Russia

ALFARUMMXXX

30111752800000000032

Stockholm
Sweden

HANDSESS

99-40-331-059

Moscow Russia

ALFARUMMXXX

30111826600000000032

London, UK

MIDLGB22

39011500

BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI
LTD

NOK

SEK

GBP

Correspondent bank
Alfa Bank

Intermediary bank
DEN NORSKE BANK AS

Correspondent bank
Alfa Bank

Intermediary bank
SVENSKA HANDELSBANKEN

Correspondent bank
Alfa Bank

Intermediary bank
HSBC BANK PLC

186

 13. .

"Banca Sociala" .
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0,43

0,29

0,14

0,29

>>>

0,29

700

0,29

600

0,29

500

1,00

400

0,29

300

0,14

200

0,29

100

0,24

011 012 013 014 021 022 023 024 031 032 033 034 041 042 043 044 051 052 053 054

189

 16.
16.

044

051

052

043

042

041

034

050

033

040

032

031

053

054

0,69

0,65 0,65 0,65 0,88 1,00 0,70 0,70 0,90 0,80 0,60 0,50 0,80 0,80 0,80 1,00 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80

0,77

190

0,77

0,50 0,50 0,65 0,65 1,00 0,50 0,70 0,70 0,50 0,50 0,80 0,80 0,50 0,50 0,80 0,80 1,00 0,50 0,80 1,00

0,71

1,00

0,79

1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00

0,84

0,72

0,83

0,65 0,65 0,65 0,77 1,00 0,70 0,00 0,70 0,80 0,80 0,60 0,60 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80

0,86

0,69

0,76

0,60 0,60 0,60 0,60 1,00 0,60 0,60 0,60 1,00 0,80 1,00 1,00 0,60 0,60 0,60 0,60 0,60 0,60 0,50 0,60

0,79

0,83

0,80

1,00 1,00 0,60 0,60 1,00 0,60 0,60 0,70 1,00 0,80 0,80 0,80 1,00 0,80 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,60 0,60

0,74

0,79

0,76

0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,70 0,80 0,50 0,60 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,70 0,80 0,50 0,60

0,83

>>>

024

0,80

700

030

023

0,66

600

022

0,73

500

021

1,00

400

014

0,79

300

013

0,72

200

0,73

100

012

011
,

>>>

020

0,74

>>>

<<<

010

<<<

 17.

17.

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

1
2
3
0,00 1,00 0,00
0,00 1,00 0,00
0,00 1,00 0,00
1,00 1,00 0,00
1,00 1,00 1,00
1,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 1,00 1,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 1,00
0,00 0,00 1,00
0,00 1,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
1,00 1,00 1,00
1,00 1,00 1,00
1,00 1,00 1,00
1,00 1,00 1,00
0,00 1,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 1,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00

Q
4
5
0,00 0,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,40
1,00 1,00 1,00
0,00 1,00 0,40
1,00 0,00 0,20
1,00 0,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,40
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
1,00 1,00 1,00
1,00 1,00 1,00
1,00 1,00 1,00
1,00 1,00 1,00
0,00 1,00 0,40
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 0,00 0,00
0,00 1,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,00
1,00 0,00 0,20
0,00 0,00 0,00

1,0

0,9

0,8

0,7

0,6

0,5

0,4

0,3

0,2

0,1

0,0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

. 17

191

 18. ( )

18.

0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00

0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
0,00

0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00

0,20
0,20
0,20
0,40
1,00
0,40
0,20
0,20
0,40
0,00
0,20
0,20
0,20
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,40
0,00
0,00
0,20
0,20
0,00
0,20
0,00

1,0
0,8

1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00

0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

. 18.1

1,00

0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
1,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
0,00

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

0,50

0,00
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

. 18.2

192

 19.
19.1.
Banca Sociala , . . .

193

194

 19.2.
Banca Sociala , . . .

195

196

 19.3.

197

 19.4. -

198

 19.5. .
IISE

199

Banca Sociala , . .

Banca Sociala . . .

.
IISE .

200

, , , , ,


, ,
, .

24.12.2012 .

201

CURICULUM VITAE

(BALINA IRINA VITALIE)
. , ., 8, . 45.
Tel. (373 22) 445333, . 069026632.
E-mail: balina_i_v@mail.ru

17.06.1960

2007 2010 , , . .
2007 2008 - ,
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2006 ,
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.

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09.1982 01.1983 -
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-


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