Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
A Discrete-Time Two-Factor Model for Pricing Bonds and Interest Rate Derivatives under Random Volatility
Steven L. Heston and Saikat Nandi
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper 99-20
December 1999
Abstract: This paper develops a discrete-time two-factor model of interest rates with analytical solutions for bonds and many interest rate derivatives when the volatility of the short rate follows a GARCH process that can be correlated with the level of the short rate itself. Besides bond and bond futures, the model yields analytical solutions for prices of European options on discount bonds (and futures) as well as other interest rate derivatives such as caps, floors, average rate options, yield curve options, etc. The advantage of our discrete-time model over continuous-time stochastic volatility models is that volatility is an observable function of the history of the spot rate and is easily (and exactly) filtered from the discrete observations of a chosen short rate/bond prices. Another advantage of our discrete-time model is that for derivatives like average rate options, the average rate can be exactly computed because, in practice, the payoff at maturity is based on the average of rates that can be observed only at discrete time intervals. Calibrating our two-factor model to the treasury yield curve (eight different maturities) for a few randomly chosen intervals in the period 199096, we find that the two-factor version does not improve (statistically and economically) upon the nested one-factor model (which is a discrete-time version of the Vasicek 1977 model) in terms of pricing the cross section of spot bonds. This occurs although the onefactor model is rejected in favor of the two-factor model in explaining the time-series properties of the short rate. However, the implied volatilities from the Black model (a one-factor model) for options on discount bonds exhibit a smirk if option prices are generated by our model using the parameter estimates obtained as above. Thus, our results indicate that the effects of random volatility of the short rate are manifested mostly in bond option prices rather than in bond prices. JEL classification: G12, G13 Key words: GARCH, volatility, bonds, options
The authors thank Daniel Waggoner for constructing the zero-coupon yield curves. The views expressed here are the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System. Any remaining errors are the authors responsibility. Please address questions regarding content to Steven L. Heston, Goldman Sachs & Company, Asset Management Division, 32 Old Slip, New York, New York 10005, 212/357-1989, 212/357-6563 (fax), steven.heston@gs.com; or Saikat Nandi, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 104 Marietta Street, NW, Atlanta, Georgia 30303-2713, 404/614-7094, saikat.u.nandi@atl.frb.org. To receive notification about new papers, please use the publications order form on this Web site, or contact the Public Affairs Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 104 Marietta Street, NW, Atlanta, Georgia 303032713, 404/521-8020.
RGHO IRU
, QWU RGXFWLRQ
( [W H Q G LQ J W K H ZR U N R I 9 D V LF H N &R [ ,Q J H U V R OO D Q G 5 R V V K H Q F H IR U W K &,5 D Q G + H D W K -D U U R Z D Q G 0R U W R Q K H Q F H IR U W K + -0 U H V H D U F K H U V K D YH G H YH OR S H G D S OH W K R U D R I P R G H OV IR U W K H W H U P V W U X F W X U H R I LQ W H U H V W U D W H V W K D W R IW H Q LQ YR OYH V S U LF LQ J E R Q G V D Q G R U LQ W H U H V W U D W H G H U LYD W LYH V 2Q H F OD V V R I P R G H OV R IW H Q W D NH V W K H V K R U W U D W H W R E H W K H V W D W H YD U LD E OH D Q G W K H Q S U LF H V E R Q G V D Q G E R Q G R S W LR Q V E \ G H U LYLQ J W K H U LV NQ H X W U D O G \Q D P LF V R I W K H V K R U W U D W H 6 LQ F H W K H V K R U W U D W H LV Q R W D W U D G H G D V V H W D S D U D P H W H U U H OD W H G W R W K H LQ W H U H V W U D W H U LV N S U H P LX P D S S H D U V LQ W K H IR U P X OD H 2Q W K H R W K H U K D Q G W K H + -0 D S S U R D F K W D NH V W K H H Q W LU H \LH OG F X U YH R U H TX LYD OH Q W O\ W K H V H W R I IR U ZD U G U D W H V R U W K H E R Q G S U LF H V W R E H W K H V W D W H YD U LD E OH D Q G G H U LYH V D U E LW U D J H IU H H S U LF H V R I R S W LR Q R Q E R Q G V V X F K W K D W D Q \ IX Q F W LR Q D O V S H F Lp F D W LR Q IR U W K H U LV N S U H P LX P LV Q R W U H TX LU H G W R F R P S X W H R S W LR Q S U LF H V E H F D X V H W K H YD U LR X V E R Q G V D U H W U D G H G D V V H W V $ OV R W K H + -0 D S S U R D F K LV D E OH W R P D W F K W K H H [LV W LQ J W H U P WH UP V W U X F W X U H LV LW V H OI W K H V W D W H YD U LD E OH ,W LV ZH OO NQ R ZQ W K D W W K H G \Q D P LF V R I W K H W H U P VWUX F WX UH F D Q Q R W E H F D S WX UH G E \ V W U X F W X U H E \ G H ID X OW D V W K H
R Q H ID F W R U V H H / LW W H U P D Q D Q G 6 F K H LQ NP D Q ,Q ID F W ' \E YLJ H P S K D V L] H V W K H H [LV W H Q F H R I D V H F R Q G ID F W R U U H OD W H G W R W K H YR OD W LOLW \ R I LQ W H U H V W U D W H V W K D W P D \ Q R W K D YH D Q \ P D MR U LP S D F W R Q W K H S U LF H V R I W K H V S R W E R Q G V E X W P D \ E H YH U \ LP S R U W D Q W IR U E R Q G R S W LR Q V $ Q G H U V H Q D Q G / X Q G D OV R p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o D Q G 6 F K ZD U W ] K H Q F H IR U W K / 6 D Q G &K H Q D Q G 6 F R W W K H Q F H IR U W K &6 G H YH OR S F R Q W LQ X R X V
W K D W F D Q LQ F R U S R U D W H U D Q G R P
YR OD W LOLW \ LQ W K H H YR OX W LR Q R I W K H V K R U W U D W H D Q G R oH U D Q D O\W LF D O V R OX W LR Q V IR U E R Q G V W K H F R Q W LQ X R X V W LP H P R G H OV R oH U YD OX D E OH LQ V LJ K W V W K H \ D U H K D U G WR
LP S OH P H Q W IR U S U LF LQ J D Q G K H G J LQ J E R Q G V D Q G E R Q G R S W LR Q V ZLW K YR OD W LOLW \ D V W K H V H F R Q G ID F W R U 7K LV LV V LP S O\ E H F D X V H YR OD W LOLW \ LV X Q R E V H U YD E OH LQ W K H V H F R Q W LQ X R X V W LP H V W R F K D V W LF YR OD W LOLW \ P R G H OV D Q G LW LV Q R W S R V V LE OH W R p OW H U D F R Q W LQ X R X V YR OD W LOLW \ YD U LD E OH IU R P G LV F U H W H R E V H U YD W LR Q V R I LQ W H U H V W U D W H V R U E R Q G S U LF H V $ Q X Q R E V H U YD E OH YR OD W LOLW \ LP S OLH V W K D W W K H V S R W YR OD W LOLW \ D W W LP H W ZK LF K LV Q H H G H G W R S U LF H E R Q G V D Q G E R Q G R S W LR Q V LV Q R W NQ R ZQ D W W K H W LP H V X F K D S U LF H Q H H G V W R E H F D OF X OD W H G D Q G R Q H LV F R Q V W U D LQ H G W R X V H W K H V S R W YR OD W LOLW \ LQ IH U U H G IU R P D S U H YLR X V S H U LR G WK D W G R H V Q R W Q H F H V V D U LO\ U H q H F W W K H F X U U H Q W LQ IR U P D W LR Q LQ W K H W H U P V W U X F W X U H 7K H Q R Q
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
2QH FRXOG SRVVLEO\ XVH DQ H[WHQGHG .DOPDQ pOWHU DQ DSSUR[LPDWLRQ WR WKH UHJXODU .DOPDQ pOWHU WR JHW WKH VSRW YRODWLOLW\ LQ FRQWLQXRXV WLPH PRGHOV DV LQ 0HOLQR DQG 7XUQEXOO $VLGH IURP EHLQJ FRPSXWDWLRQDOO\ LQWHQVLYH WKH YRODWLOLW\ REWDLQHG WKHUHLQ LV RQO\ DQ DSSUR[LPDWLRQ DQG RSWLRQV SULFHV FDQ EH YHU\ VHQVLWLYH WR HUURUV LQ YRODWLOLW\ 7KH VDPH LV WUXH RI WKH HrFLHQW PHWKRGV RI PRPHQWV RI *DOODQW DQG 7DXFKHQ 2QH FDQ FDOLEUDWH WKH FRQWLQXRXVWLPH VWRFKDVWLF YRODWLOLW\ PRGHOV WR PDUNHW GDWD RQ RS WLRQVERQGV DQG WKHUHIRUH JHW DQ HVWLPDWH RI WKH YRODWLOLW\ DW DQ HDUOLHU WLPH VD\ W b ZKLFK LV GLoHUHQW IURP WKH YRODWLOLW\ DW WLPH W
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p U V W ID F W R U LV W K H P H D Q U H YH U W LQ J V K R U W U D W H D Q G W K H W ZR ID F W R U V D U H F R U U H OD W H G % H V LG H V E R Q G D Q G E R Q G IX W X U H V W K H P R G H O J H Q H U D W H V H [S OLF LW D Q D O\W LF D O V R OX W LR Q V IR U S U LF H V R I R S W LR Q V R Q G LV F R X Q W E R Q G V G LV F R X Q W E R Q G IX W X U H V D V ZH OO D V R W K H U LQ W H U H V W U D W H G H U LYD W LYH V V X F K D V F D S V q R R U V D YH U D J H U D W H R S W LR Q V H W F 7K H D G YD Q W D J H R I W K LV P R G H O E H V LG H V LW V D Q D O\W LF D O W U D F W D E LOLW \ LV W K D W X Q OLNH F R Q W LQ X R X V W LP H V W R F K D V W LF YR OD W LOLW \ P R G H OV YR OD W LOLW \ LV H D V LO\ H V W LP D W H G IU R P W K H G LV F U H W H R E V H U YD W LR Q V R I W K H V K R U W U D W H 7K X V W K H V S R W YR OD W LOLW \ W K D W LV LQ S X W W R W K H R S W LR Q V IR U P X OD LV NQ R ZQ D Q G F D Q E H X S G D W H G R Q W K H E D V LV R I W K H P R V W F X U U H Q W LQ IR U P D W LR Q 7K H U H IR U H LQ W H U P V R I S D U D P H W H U H V W LP D W LR Q R X U P R G H O H Q D E OH V W K H V LP X OW D Q H R X V X V H R I W K H LP S OLH G LQ IR U P D W LR Q LQ W K H F U R V V V H F W LR Q R I E R Q G E R Q G R S W LR Q S U LF H V D Q G W K H K LV W R U LF D O LQ IR U P D W LR Q LQ W K H H YR OX W LR Q R I W K H LQ W H U H V W U D W H 0R U H R YH U IR U G H U LYD W LYH V OLNH D YH U D J H U D W H R S W LR Q V R X U G LV F U H W H W LP H P R G H O K D V W K H S U D F W LF D O D G YD Q W D J H W K D W W K H D YH U D J H U D W H F D Q E H H [S OLF W O\ F R P S X W H G E H F D X V H LQ S U D F W LF H W K H S D \R o D W P D W X U LW \ LV E D V H G R Q W K H D YH U D J H R I U D W H V R E V H U YH G D W G LV F U H W H W LP H LQ W H U YD OV D Q G Q R W D Q \ F R Q W LQ X R X V O\ R E V H U YH G U D W H D V D V V X P H G LQ F R Q W LQ X R X V W LP H P R G H OV &D OLE U D W LQ J R X U P R G H O W R W K H \LH OG F X U YH H LJ K W G LoH U H Q W P D W X U LW LH V IR U D IH Z U D Q G R P O\ F K R V H Q W ZR ZH H N LQ W H U YD OV LQ W K H S H U LR G ZH p Q G W K D W W K H W ZR ID F W R U YH U V LR Q G R H V Q R W LP S U R YH V W D W LV W LF D OO\ D Q G H F R Q R P LF D OO\ X S R Q W K H Q H V W H G R Q H ID F W R U P R G H O ZK LF K LV D G LV F U H W H W LP H YH U V LR Q R I W K H 9 D V LF H N P R G H O LQ W H U P V R I S U LF LQ J
'XDQ UHVRUWV WR D FRPSXWDWLRQDOO\ LQWHQVLYH 0RQWH &DUOR SURFHGXUH IRU YDOXLQJ ERQGV DQG ERQG RSWLRQV XQGHU *$5&+
W K H F U R V V V H F W LR Q R I V S R W E R Q G V 7K LV R F F X U V G H V S LW H W K H ID F W W K D W W K H R Q H ID F W R U LV U H MH F W H G LQ ID YR U R I W K H W ZR ID F W R U P R G H O LQ H [S OD LQ LQ J W K H W LP H V H U LH V E H K D YLR U R I D F K R V H Q V K R U W U D W H F R P S X W H G IU R P W K H W K U H H P R Q W K 7E LOO \LH OG V $ OV R W K LV S D U W LF X OD U VWUX F WX UH R X U W ZR ID F W R U P R G H O W K H F R Q F OX V LR Q LV U R E X V W W R W K H OH Q J W K R I W K H LQ W H U YD O X V H G W R V D P S OH W K H W H U P + R ZH YH U J LYH Q R S W LR Q S U LF H V R Q G LV F R X Q W E R Q G V IU R P LP S OLH G YR OD W LOLW LH V IU R P
W K H % OD F N P R G H O ZK LF K LV D R Q H ID F W R U P R G H O D Q G ZLG H O\
X V H G LQ W K H P D U NH W S OD F H H [K LE LW W K H V P LU N V NH Z IH D W X U H 7K H V H R S W LR Q S U LF H V D U H J H Q H U D W H G Q R W E \ F R Q MH F W X U H G S D U D P H W H U H V W LP D W H V E X W D F W X D O S D U D P H W H U H V W LP D W H V R E W D LQ H G E \ F D OLE U D W LQ J W K H P R G H O W R W K H R E V H U YH G \LH OG F X U YH
RGHO
p K o ] b q K
K ]
ZK H U H ] LV D V W D Q G D U G Q R U P D O D Q G K LV W K H YD U LD Q F H R I U b U F R Q G LW LR Q D O R Q W K H LQ IR U P D W LR Q D W W LP H W 7K H G \Q D P LF V R I K LV V LP LOD U W R W K H D V \P P H W U LF *$ 5 &+ S U R F H V V H V Q D P H O\ 1 *$ 5 &+ D Q G 9 *$ 5 &+ W K D W ZH U H X V H G E \ ( Q J OH D Q G 1 J $ Q R Q ] H U R q D OOR ZV F R U U H OD W LR Q E H W ZH H Q W K H OH YH O R I LQ W H U H V W U D W H V D Q G W K H F R Q G LW LR Q D O YD U LD Q F H 1 R W H W K D W K LV NQ R ZQ D V R I W LP H W J LYH Q W K H K LV W R U \ R I U X Q W LO W ,Q S D U W LF X OD U LQ W K H D E R YH V \V W H P ZLW K *$ 5 &+ YR OD W LOLW \ D Q G YR OD W LOLW \ ,J Q R U LQ J W K H y W H U P R I H TX D W LR Q V ZH K D YH D P H D Q U H YH U W LQ J V K R U W U D W H R I WK H LQ LW F D Q E H U R X J K O\ W K R X J K W R I D V D G LV F U H W H W K H OH YH O R I W K H V K R U W U D W H LV LW V H OI D IX Q F W LR Q
F R Q W LQ X R X V W LP H 9 D V LF H N P R G H O 1 R W H W K D W ZH F D Q H D V LO\ G U R S y IU R P
D Q G V W LOO
S z ze Y G: U y Y GW S x v b Y GW Y G:
z b o
p
xv b D Q G q
b
x D Q G y
y D Q G : LV D :
LH Q H U S U R F H V V 1 R W H W K D W X Q OLNH W K H F R Q W LQ X R X V LH Q H U S U R F H V V G U LYH V W K H V K R U W U D W H
W LP H OLP LW R I P D Q \ *$ 5 &+ S U R F H V V H V W K H V D P H : D r Q H V W U X F W X U H LQ W K D W W K H OR J D U LW K P
D Q G LW V YR OD W LOLW \ ,W F D Q E H YH U Lp H G W K D W W K H F R Q W LQ X R X V W LP H P R G H OV OH Q G V LW V H OI W R D Q R I D E R Q G \LH OG LV D r Q H LQ U D Q G Y $ V D U H V X OW R Q H F D Q ZR U N R X W D Q D O\W LF D O V R OX W LR Q V IR U W K H F R Q W LQ X R X V W LP H P R G H O D OV R + R ZH YH U W K LV S D S H U ZLOO F R Q F H Q W U D W H R Q O\ R Q W K H G LV F U H W H W LP H P R G H O D V S D U D P H W H U H V W LP D W LR Q D Q G W K H U H IR U H P R G H O LP S OH P H Q W D LR Q LV P X F K H D V LH U X Q G H U W K H G LV F U H W H W LP H V H W X S )U R P Q R Z R Q ZR U NLQ J ZLW K W K H G LV F U H W H W LP H P R G H O ZH ZLOO V H W / H W W K H W LP H W S U LF H R I D G LV F R X Q W E R Q G W K D W P D W X U H V D W 7 E H 3 W 7 $ V LV W K H F D V H ZH ZLOO ZR U N X Q G H U W K H U LV NQ H X W U D O G LV W U LE X W LR Q W R H YD OX D W H E R Q G D Q G E R Q G R S W LR Q S U LF H V ,W F D Q E H V K R ZQ V H H W K H D S S H Q G L[ W K D W X Q G H U W K H U LV NQ H X W U D O G LV W U LE X W LR Q S ] LV U H S OD F H G E \ ] V X F K W K D W ] ] b u K LV D V W D Q G D U G Q R U P D O X Q G H U W K H U LV N Q H X W U D O G LV W U LE X W LR Q ZK H U H u LV D F R Q V W D Q W ,Q R W K H U ZR U G V W K H U LV N Q H X W U D O G \Q D P LF V R I U D Q G K D U H J LYH Q E \ U z z U ye K
T
K ]
K ZK H U H ye y u qe
p K o ] b q e K
q b u &R Q V LG H U W K H S U LF H R I D ] H U R F R X S R Q E R Q G D W W W K D W
H [S LU H V D W W LH 3 W W ,W LV W U X H E \ V LP S OH G H p Q LW LR Q W K D W 3 W W H [S bU ( H [S bU
H [S b z z U ye K
ZK H U H ( LV W K H F R Q G LW LR Q D O H [S H F W D W LR Q X Q G H U W K H U LV NQ H X W U D O G LV W U LE X W LR Q 7K X V W K H \LH OG R I W K H W ZR S H U LR G E R Q G LV
z z U ye K 1 R W H F R Q G LW LR Q D O
W K D W W K H E R Q G \LH OG LV D r Q H LQ W K H V W D W H YD U LD E OH V U D Q G K ,Q S D U W LF X OD U ZH F D Q V LP LOD U O\ F D OF X OD W H W K H \LH OG R Q D W K U H H S H U LR G E R Q G E \ X V LQ J LW H U D W H G H [S H F W D W LR Q D Q G V K R Z W K D W W K H W K U H H S H U LR G \LH OG LV D OV R D r Q H LQ W K H V W D W H YD U LD E OH V 7K H D r Q H Q D W X U H R I W K H E R Q G \LH OG LQ W K H V W D W H YD U LD E OH V U D Q G K LP S O\ W K D W ZH F D Q ZU LW H W K H S U LF H R I W K H D E R Q G ZLW K 7W S H U LR G V W R P D W X U LW \ D V 3 W 7 H [S $ W 7 % W 7 U & W 7 K
D V LQ &R [,Q J H U V R OO5 R V V + H V W R Q ' X r H D Q G . D Q D Q G P D Q \ R W K H U V $ V U D Q G K D U H NQ R ZQ D V R I W LP H W LW U H P D LQ V W R V R OYH IR U W K H F R H r F LH Q W V $ W 7 % W 7 D Q G & W 7 LQ W H U P V R I W K H P R G H O S D U D P H W H U V 7K H V H F R H r F LH Q W V F D Q E H V R OYH G U H F X U V LYH O\ IU R P D E R X Q G D U \ F R Q G LW LR Q )R U W K H E R X Q G D U \ F R Q G LW LR Q F R Q V LG H U W K H S U LF H R I D E R Q G W K D W ZLOO P D W X U H D W 7 D W 7 b 3 7 b 7 H [S $ 7 b 7 % 7 b 7 UU b & 7 b 7 KU b
% X W IR OOR ZLQ J LW LV D OV R W U X H W K D W 3 7 b 7
H [S b z z UU b ye KU b
( TX D W LQ J W K H W ZR H [S U H V V LR Q V IR U 3 7 b 7 D Q G P D W F K LQ J F R H r F LH Q W V R Q W K H V W D W H
1 R Z ZH ZLOO G H U LYH W K H E D F NZD U G U H F X U V LR Q IR U P X OD IR U W K H F R H r F LH Q W V $ W 7 % W 7 D Q G & W 7 J LYH Q UD WH 3 W 7 H [S bU ( >3 W 7 @ H [S bU ( >H [S $ W 7 % W 7 U & W 7 K @ W K H D E R YH E R X Q G D U \ F R Q G LW LR Q V 6 LQ F H W K H H [S H F W H G R Q H S H U LR G D S S U H F LD W LR Q LQ W K H S U LF H R I D E R Q G X Q G H U W K H U LV NQ H X W U D O G LV W U LE X W LR Q LV W K H V K R U W
% W 7 & W 7
o& W 7 ,Q R W K H U ZR U G V V W D U W LQ J IU R P
b q e% W 7 q e
b o& W 7
W K H E R X Q G D U \ F R Q G LW LR Q V D Q G ZH K D YH
$ V ZLW K W K H E R Q G S U LF H W K H F R H r F LH Q W V $s W 7 %s W 7 D Q G &s W 7 D U H G H U LYH G U H F X U V LYH O\ IU R P 7K H U H IR U H ) 7 D E R X Q G D U \ F R Q G LW LR Q 7R G H U LYH W K H E R X Q G D U \ F R Q G LW LR Q 3 7 7K LV LP S OLH V W K H IR OOR ZLQ J $s 7 %s 7 &s 7 $ 7 % 7 & 7 Q R W H W K D W IX W X U H V S U LF H H TX D O W K H V S R W S U LF H D W W K H P D W X U LW \ R I W K H IX W X U H V F R Q W U D F W
ZK H U H $ 7 % 7 D Q G & 7 D U H NQ R ZQ IU R P W K H S U LF H R I W K H G LV F R X Q W E R Q G W K D W P D W X U H V D W 7
W K H U H F X U V LR Q V Q H H G H G W R F D OF X OD W H
,W LV D ZH OO NQ R ZQ U H V X OW W K D W IX W X U H V S U LF H V D U H P D U W LQ J D OH V X Q G H U D P D U W LQ J D OH P H D V X U H V H H &R [ ,Q J H U V R OO D Q G 5 R V V 7K X V ) W 7 ( >) W 7 @
&s W 7 K @
%s W 7 &s W 7
o&s W 7
b o&s W 7
% RQG 2SWLRQV
2SWLRQ RQ 'LVFRXQW % RQG
H [S $ W % W U & W K
7K H F R H r F LH Q W V $ W % W D Q G & W F D Q E H R E W D LQ H G IU R P
7KH IDFW WKDW WKH PRPHQW JHQHUDWLQJ IXQFWLRQ LV DrQH LQ WKH VWDWH YDULDEOHV DV ERQG \LHOGV ZHUH YHULpHG WR EH DrQH LQ WKH GDWH YDULDEOHV LQ D SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQ
ZK H U H $ 7 % 7 D Q G & 7 D U H NQ R ZQ IU R P W K H S U LF H R I W K H G LV F R X Q W E R Q G
W K D W H [S LU H V D W 7 3 W 7 / H W $e W u
W K H U H F X U V LR Q V Q H H G H G W R F D OF X OD W H
E R X Q G D U \ F R Q G LW LR Q V D U H W K D Q J LYH Q D V IR OOR ZV Q R W H W K D W W K H \ D U H YH U \ V LP LOD U W R W K H U H F X U V LR Q V IR U E R Q G S U LF H )R U E U H YLW \ R I Q R W D W LR Q ZH D U H V X S S U H V V LQ J 7 IU R P Q R W D W LR Q V LQ W K H IR OOR ZLQ J U H F X U V LR Q G H U LYD W LR Q LV LQ W K H D S S H Q G L[ $ W b$ W $e W z % e W & e W OR J b o& e W b b % W z % e W b& W ye % e W p& e W 7e 0 e% e W q e b q e o8 0 o& e W b o& e W
% W & W
$ W W LP H W K D YLQ J J R W W H Q $ W % W D Q G & W ZH NQ R Z W K H F R Q G LW LR Q D O P R P H Q W J H Q H U D W LQ J IX Q F W LR Q R I [ D W W LP H W ,I I LV W K H P R P H Q W J H Q H U D W LQ J IX Q F W LR Q I L LV W K H F K D U D F W H U LV W LF IX Q F W LR Q ,Q YH U W LQ J W K H F K D U D F W H U LV W LF IX Q F W LR Q D V LQ + H V W R Q
G
b .3 W
= Hbv ORJF I L 5H } L
7K H G H U LYD W LR Q R I LV V K R ZQ LQ W K H D S S H Q G L[ % \ D V LP S OH U H D U U D Q J H P H Q W ZH F D Q D OV R ZU LW H W K H D E R YH H TX D W LR Q LQ W K H W \S LF D O % OD F N6 F K R OH V IR U P D W D V & W 7 3 W 7 0 b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
&K H Q D Q G 6 F R W W W K H Q X P H U LF D O D F F X U D F \ R I V X F K D S U R F H G X U H LV D Q R S H Q LV V X H
7K LV V H F W LR Q
G LV F R X Q W E R Q G IX W X U H V X Q G H U R X U P R G H O / H W ) W 7 7 G H Q R W H W K H F X U U H Q W IX W X U H V S U LF H IR U D F R Q W U D F W R Q D G LV F R X Q W E R Q G W K D W H [S LU H V D W 7 W K H IX W X U H V F R Q W U D F W H [S LU H V D W 7 6 X S S R V H D F D OO R S W LR Q LV W U D G H G R Q W K H IX W X U H V F R Q W U D F W D Q G W K H R S W LR Q H [S LU H V D W / H W 7 7 ,W F D Q E H V K R ZQ W K D W W K H S U LF H R I W K H R S W LR Q & W 7 7
LV J LYH Q E \
& W 7 7
3 W
G
b .
$ V LQ W K H S U H F H G LQ J V H F W LR Q IR U R S W LR Q V R Q G LV F R X Q W E R Q G V I L LV W K H F K D U D F W H U LV W LF IX Q F W LR Q D Q G W K H F R U U H V S R Q G LQ J P R P H Q W J H Q H U D W LQ J IX Q F W LR Q LV I H [S $ W % W U & W K
1 R W H W K D W $s 7 7 %s 7 7 D Q G &s 7 7 D U H NQ R ZQ IU R P V LR Q V Q H H G H G W R F D OF X OD W H W K H IX W X U H V S U LF H Q D P H O\ W K H S U LF H R I D
3 U LF H V R I R W K H U W \S H V R I LQ W H U H V W U D W H R S W LR Q V V X F K D V F D S V D Q G q R R U V F D Q E H F D OF X OD W H G LQ W K H V D P H ZD \ D V D E R YH E \ Q R W LQ J W K D W W K H V H D U H S R U W IR OLR V R I R S W LR Q V R Q G LV F R X Q W E R Q G V V H H + X OO IR U W K H D Q D OR J LH V
7K H S U LF H R I D Q $ V LD Q R S W LR Q R Q LQ W H U V W U D W H R U D Q R S W LR Q R Q W K H D YH U D J H U D W H IU R P V R P H W LP H W X Q W LO V R P H OD W H U W LP H 7 F D Q E H F R P S X W H G E \ W D NLQ J D G YD Q W J H R I W K H D r Q H V W U X F W X U H IR U E R Q G S U LF H V D V LQ D Q G -X W K H F R Q W LQ X R X V W LP H P R G H OV R I % D NV K L D Q G 0D G D Q 2X U P R G H O K D V D G LV W LQ F W D G YD Q W D J H R YH U F R Q W LQ X R X V W LP H
3 U b W K H F D OO R S W LR Q D W W LP H 7 E H P D [ U b U b . / H W 3 U b 3 b U D Q G D W b U 7K X V W K H S U LF H R I W K H F D OO R S W LR Q
ZK H U H (A G H Q R W H V W K H H [S H F W D W LR Q X Q G H U W K H IR U ZD U G P H D V X U H LH ZK H U H W K H Q X P H U D LU H LV W K H S U LF H R I D G LV F R X Q W E R Q G W K D W H [S LU H V D W 7 / H W [ u D W b 0 W 7 b / H W I L I L (A H [S L[ E H W K H F K D U D F W H U LV W LF IX Q F W LR Q R I [ ,W F D Q E H V K R ZQ W K D W
H [S LD W b $ W 7 b % W 7 b U & W 7 b K
% 7 b 7 & 7 b 7 b
b% 7 b 7 L b z x y e b& 7 b 7 L b y L b
1 R W H W K D W $ W b 7 % 7 b 7 D Q G & 7 b 7 F D Q E H R E W D LQ H G IU R P
W K H U H F X U V LR Q V
ZK H U H % W 7 D Q G % W 7 F R P H IU R P
W K H U H F X U V LR Q Q H H G H G W R F R P S X W H W K H S U LF H
R I D ] H U R F R X S R Q E R Q G H [S LU LQ J D W 7 D Q G LV NQ R ZQ D V R I W LP H W Q R W H W K D W % W 7 LV LQ G H S H Q G H Q W R I ,Q YH U W LQ J W K H F K D U D F W H U LV W LF IX Q F W LR Q R Q H J H W V W K H S U LF H R I W K H F D OO R S W LR Q W R E H G H U LYD W LR Q R I LV V K R ZQ LQ W K H D S S H Q G L[ & W 7
e = A HbvF I L 3 W 7 ( 0 W 7 5H 7 b } b e = HbvF I L b .e 5H G } L
G
ZK H U H . e
7 b . b D W b D Q G I L
5s v 5 $ W W K LV V W D J H ZH G R Q R W NQ R Z
W K H U H F X U V LR Q V IR U H D F K
bz z ye b
#% W 7 b #
z
#% W 7 b #
)U R P
D Q G LW G LU H F W \ IR OR ZV W K D W (A >0 W 7 b @
b1
R WH
W K D W J F D Q E H H [S OLF LW O\ F D OF X OD W H G D V IR OOR ZV J
H [S $ W 7 b % W 7 b
( VWLPDWLRQ
VWUX F WX UH D Q G
+ D YLQ J G H YH OR S H G D Q D O\W LF D O IR U P X OD H IR U E R Q G V D Q G E R Q G G H U LYD W LYH V ZH G R D Q H [ S OR U D W R U \ LQ YH V W LJ D W LR Q R I K R Z ZH OO W K H P R G H O p W V W K H R E V H U YH G W H U P LQ W H U H V W U D W H G H U LYD W LYH V P D U NH W IU R P ZK H W K H U V W U LNH S U LF H E LD V H V V X F K D V W K H V P LOH V P LU N LQ LP S OLH G YR OD W LOLW LH V LQ V R P H D R Q H ID F W R U P R G H O V X F K D V W K H % OD F N P R G H O F D Q E H D F F R X Q W H G IR U LQ R X U IU D P H ZR U N D IW H U ZH K D YH H V W LP D W H G W K H P R G H O S D U D P H W H U V ,W LV W R E H Q R W H G W K D W W K H S X U S R V H R I W K LV V H F W LR Q LV Q R W W R X Q G H U W D NH D W K R U R X J K H P S LU LF D O H F R Q R P H W U LF LQ YH V W LJ D W LR Q R I W K H W K H R U H W LF D O P R G H O E H F D X V H P R G H O E X LOG LQ J D Q G Q R W P R G H O W H V W LQ J LV W K H IR F X V R I W K LV S D S H U 1 H YH U W K H OH V V F D OLE U D W LQ J W K H P R G H O W R W K H D F W X D OW H U P V W U X F W X U H V K R X OG J H Q H U D W H V R P H E D V LF LQ V LJ K W V D E R X W W K H E D V LF IX Q F W LR Q D OLW \ R I W K H P R G H O LQ W K H F R Q W H [W R I W K H U H D O ZR U OG W K D W K R S H IX OO\ ZLOO LQ V S LU H P R U H H [W H Q V LYH H P S LU LF D O U H V H D U F K LQ W K H IX W X U H )R U W K H ] H U R F R X S R Q F X U YH V F R Q V W U X F W H G IU R P P LQ LP L] D W LR Q R I W K H V X P E R Q G S U LF H V R I YD U LR X V P D W X U LW LH V ZH X V H D P R G Lp F D W LR Q E R Q G p OH G D W D G X H W R : D J J R Q H U V H H R I W K H )LV K H U 1 \F K ND D Q G =H U YR V P H W K R G R I F R Q V W U X F W LQ J ] H U R F R X S R Q \LH OG W K H G D LO\ &5 6 3 % OLV V IR U W K H G H W D LOV 7K H F U LW H U LR Q IX Q F W LR Q IR U S D U D P H W H U H V W LP D W LR Q LV W K H R I V TX D U H G H U U R U V E H W ZH H Q P R G H O D Q G P D U NH W ] H U R F R X S R Q V D P S OH R I W ZR ZH H NV R I F R Q V H F X W LYH G D W D LQ W K H E R Q G S U LF H V ,Q ID F W IR U D U D Q G R P
S H U LR G V S D Q Q LQ J ZH P LQ LP L] H W K H IR OOR ZLQ J F U LW H U LR Q IX Q F W LR Q P LQ
IW U ; ;
z 0z 00o0p0q0y0u
3v0 b 0v0
:H WKDQN 'DQLHO :DJJRQHU IRU FRQVWUXFWLQJ WKH ]HUR FRXSRQ \LHOG FXUYHV
p
o
b b
7D E OH V K R ZV W K H P D U NH W D Q G P R G H O \LH OG V IR U W K H YD U LR X V P D W X U LW LH V
R Q -D Q X D U \ 1 R Z LI ZH p W W K H Q H V W H G R Q H ID F W R U P R G H O W K H G LV F U H W H W LP H YH U V LR Q R I W K H 9 D V LF H N P R G H O W R W K H V D P H V D P S OH ZH p Q G W K D W W K H D YH U D J H D E V R OX W H S U LF LQ J H U U R U LV R Q O\ D OLW W OH K LJ K H U D U R X Q G W ZR E D V LV S R LQ W V W K D Q W K H W ZR ID F W R U P R G H O $ OLNH OLK R R G U D W LR W H V W R I W H V W LQ J W K H Q H V W H G R Q H ID F W R U P R G H O D J D LQ V W W K H W ZR ID F W R U P R G H O F D Q Q R W U H MH F W W K H R Q H ID F W R U P R G H O ,Q R W K H U ZR U G V W K H W ZR ID F W R U P R G H O LV R Q O\ D W U LYLD O LP S U R YH P H Q W LI p W W LQ J W K H H Q W LU H \LH OG F X U YH R YH U D J LYH Q S H U LR G R I W LP H LV X V H G D V W K H F U LW H U LR Q IX Q F W LR Q 7K LV LV LQ V K D U S F R Q W U D V W W R F K H F NLQ J W K H P R G H O G LU H F W O\ R Q W K H W LP H V H U LH V R I D V K R U W U D W H F R P S X W H G IU R P 7E LOO \LH OG V ZK H U H W K H R Q H ID F W R U YH U V LR Q WK H WK UH H P R Q WK R WK H U LV R YH U ZK H OP LQ J O\ U H MH F W H G ,Q
P D U NH W V ZK H U H YR OD W LOLW \ LV H [S H F W H G S D U D P H W H U V H V W LP D W H G IU R P
WR E H R I P X F K
P R U H LP S R U W D Q F H 8 V LQ J W K H WK H
W K H F U R V V V H F W LR Q R I E R Q G S U LF H V LQ R W K H U ZR U G V IU R P
S U H YLR X V \LH OG F X U YH F D OLE U D W LR Q ZH J H Q H U D W H S U LF H V R I R S W LR Q V R Q G LV F R X Q W E R Q G R I G LoH U H Q W V W U LNH S U LF H V X Q G H U R X U W ZR ID F W R U P R G H O 7K H Q X V LQ J W K H % OD F N P R G H O ZK LF K LV D ZLG H O\ X V H G R Q H ID F W R U P R G H O IR U S U LF LQ J W K H V H R S W LR Q V LQ W K H P D U NH W S OD F H ZH E D F N R X W W K H LP S OLH G YR OD W LOLW \ R I G LoH U H Q W V W U LNH S U LF H V ,W LV IR X Q G WK D W WK H LP S OLH G YR OD W LOLW LH V G H F U H D V H D V W K H V W U LNH S U LF H LQ F U H D V H V ,Q R W K H U ZR U G V W K H LP S OLH G YR OD W LOLW LH V G LV S OD \ D V P LU N V NH Z D F U R V V V W U LNH V IR U W K H V H R S W LR Q V V H H )LJ X U H 7K X V R X U U H V X OW V V X J J H V W W K D W YR OD W LOLW \ D V D V H F R Q G ID F W R U LV LP S R U W D Q W S U LP D U LO\ IR U E R Q G R S W LR Q V U D W K H U W K D Q IR U V S R W E R Q G V R U E R Q G IX W X U H V
&RQFOXVLRQ
: H G H YH OR S H G D G LV F U H W H W LP H W ZR ID F W R U P R G H O R I LQ W H U H V W U D W H V LQ ZK LF K W K H V H F R Q G ID F W R U LV D W LP H YD U \LQ J YR OD W LOLW \ IR OOR ZLQ J D Q D V \P P H W U LF *$ 5 &+ S U R F H V V W K H P R G H O F D Q E H X V H G W R S U LF H V S R W E R Q G V E R Q G IX W X U H V D Q G G Lo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p Q G W K D W W K H V H F R Q G ID F W R U G R H V Q R W P D W W H U V R P X F K IR U W K H F U R V V V H F W LR Q R I V S R W E R Q G V D V LW G R H V IR U E R Q G R S W LR Q V : K LOH ZH F D Q Q R W U H MH F W W K H Q H V W H G R Q H ID F W R U YH U V LR Q R I W K H P R G H O IR U W K H H Q W LU H F U R V V V H F W LR Q R I V S R W E R Q G V R Q W K H E D V LV R I S D U D P
H W H U V H V W LP D W H G IU R P
W K H \LH OG F X U YH R X U P R G H O S U R G X F H V W K H V P LU N V NH Z LQ LP S OLH G
$SSHQGL[ ,Q W K LV D S S H Q G L[ ZH V K R Z K R Z R Q H R E W D LQ V W K H U LV NQ H X W U D OL] H G U H S U H V H Q W D W LR Q R I W K H LQ W H U H V W U D W H S U R F H V V LQ D Q G $ OV R LW LV V K R ZQ K R Z R Q H R E W D LQ V D Q G W K H U H F X U V LR Q V Q H H G H G W R F D OF X OD W H W K H E R Q G S U LF H D Q G W K H S U LF H IR U R S W LR Q V R Q G LV F R X Q W E R Q G V D Q G G LV F R X Q W E R Q G IX W X U H V ,Q R X U LQ W H U H V W U D W H H Q YLU R Q P H Q W LW LV Q R W S R V V LE OH W R G H U LYH D U LV NQ H X W U D O U H S U H V H Q W D W LR Q V R OH O\ R Q W K H E D V LV R I D U E LW U D J H D U J X P H Q W V 7K LV LV V LP S O\ E H F D X V H ZH K D YH D G LV F U H W H W LP H P R G H O LQ ZK LF K W K H V K R U W U D W H D W W K H Q H [W LQ V W D Q W F D Q W D NH D Q LQ p Q LW H Q X P E H U R I YD OX H V D Q G W K H U H IR U H V S D Q Q LQ J E \ D p Q LW H Q X P E H U R I G LV F R X Q W E R Q G V LV Q R W S R V V LE OH ,Q V W H D G K D V W R V S H F LI\ D S U R F H V V IR U W K H V W D W H S U LF H G H Q V LW \ S U LF LQ J NH U Q H O R U W K H P D U J LQ D O X W LOLW \ R I F R Q V X P S W LR Q D V LQ &R Q V W D Q W LQ LG H V D Q G R W K H U V D Q G W K H Q S H U IR U P W K H F K D Q J H R I P H D V X U H R U F R P S X W H S U LF H V X Q G H U W K H V W D W LV W LF D O G D W D J H Q OR J 0 H U D W LQ J P H D V X U H / H W 0 G H Q R W H W K H V W D W H S U LF H G H Q V LW \ S U R F H V V S U R S R U W LR Q D O W R W K H P D U J LQ D O U D W H R I V X E V W LW X W LR Q LQ D U H S U H V H Q W D W LYH D J H Q W H F R Q R P \ D Q G ; D V R I W LP H W D V 9 / H W ; IR OOR Z W K H S U R F H V V ; b ;
T u K ] b u K b U
1 R W H W K D W V W D Q G D U G D V V H W S U LF LQ J W K H R U \ LP S OLH V W K D W D F D V K q R Z 9 F D Q E H YD OX H G
0 ( 9 0
1 R W H W K D W W K H V W D W H S U LF H G H Q V LW \ S U R F H V V 0
H [S ; V S H F Lp H G W K U R X J K W K H G \Q D P W W R W $ OW K R X J K ZH
LF V R I ; LQ LV D YD OLG V W D W H S U LF H G H Q V LW \ D V LW LV S R V LW LYH D Q G YD OX H V D Q R Q U D Q G R P F D V K q R Z R I D W W D V H D U Q LQ J W K H U LV N IU H H U D W H IU R P V W D W H S U LF H G H Q V LW \ F D Q E H G H U LYH G H Q G R J H Q R X V O\ IU R P K D YH H [R J H Q R X V O\ V S H F Lp H G W K H V W D W H S U LF H G H Q V LW \ J LYH Q W K H LQ W H U H V W U D W H S U R F H V V W K LV D S U R G X F W LR Q H F R Q R P \ ZLW K D J H Q W V K D YLQ J OR J D U LW K P LF X W LOLW \ V H H &R Q V W D Q W LQ LG H V D Q G D OV R &D P S E H OO / R
ww
9 b = 9 b
=
,Q W K H D E R YH H TX D W LR Q OH W ]
H [S bU
H [S bU ( 9
9 b
S
H [S b ] G] }
ZK H U H ( LV W K H H [S H F W D W LR Q F R U U H V S R Q G LQ J W R W K H U D Q G R P
YD U LD E OH ] 1 R W H W K D W W K H
z z U ye K
p K o ] b q e K
K ]
,W VXrFHV WR QRWH WKDW LI I [ LV WKH SUREDELOLW\ GHQVLW\ FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH GDWD JHQHUDW LQJVWDWLVWLFDO PHDVXUH WKHQ RQH FDQ GHpQH DQRWKHU YDOLG SUREDELOLW\ GHQVLW\ I T [ VXFK WKDW WKH S T [ H[Su KW ]W b u KW 7KH LQWHUHVWHG UHDGHU LV UHIHUUHG WR 5DGRQ1LNRG\P SURFHVV II [ .DUDW]DV DQG 6KUHYH IRU JUHDWHU GHWDLOV UHJDUGLQJ WKLV W\SH RI FDOFXODWLRQ
ZK H U H ye
y u D Q G qe
q b u D Q G ]
S ] b u K
H [S bU $ W 7
(e H [S % W 7 o& W
K ]
T b q e K
e 7 ]
&R P S OH W LQ J W K H V TX D U H LQ W K H S R U W LR Q W R ZK LF K W K H H [S H F W D W LR Q D S S OLH V X V LQ J W K H ID F W W K D W IR U D V W D Q G D U G Q R U P D O ] e ( D ] E
H [S b OR J b D hi bh D Q G
A H [S [ LV W K H F R Q G LW LR Q D O (
X X Q 0
ZK H U H 3 W D Q G 3 W D U H W K H W LP H W D Q G W S U LF H V R I D G LV F R X Q W E R Q G P D W X U LQ J D W ZK H Q W K H R S W LR Q P D W X U H V 1 R Z ZH ZLOO V K R Z K R Z R Q H D U U LYH V D W ,I W K H S H U LR G ] H U R F R X S R Q E R Q G LV
$ 7 % 7 U & 7 K / H W J [ E H W K H F R Q G LW LR Q D O G H Q V LW \
=
IX Q F W LR Q R I [ ,Q W H U P V R I LQ W H J U D OV & W 7 3 W
ORJF
H[S [ J [ G[ b .
ORJF
J [ G[
' H p Q H D Q H Z G H Q V LW \ J e [ V X F K W K D W J e [
t H[ S Q 0 1 R W H W K D W LW LV D YD OLG Q 0U
5
S U R E D E LOLW \ G H Q V LW \ E H F D X V H LW LV Q R Q Q H J D W LYH D Q G
0U Q X P H U D LU H G H q D W H G D V V H W S U LF H V D U H P D U W LQ J D OH V LH ( Q Q 0 P R P H Q W J H Q H U D W LQ J IX Q F W LR Q R I Je [ LV
Je [ G[ b t
E H F D X VH X Q G H U WK H
Q 0U Q 0 1 R Z W K H
H b
[S
[ J e [ G[
3 W = H [S [ J [ G[ 3 W 7 b I 3 W 3 W 7
7K LV LP S OLH V W K D W & W 7 3 W 7
=
ORJF
J e [ G[ b .3 W
ORJF
J [ G[
W K H LU
1 R Z X V LQ J W K H LQ YH U V LR Q IR U P X OD H W R U H F R YH U W K H G LV W U LE X W LR Q IX Q F W LR Q V IU R P
F R U U H V S R Q G LQ J F K D U D F W H U LV W LF IX Q F W LR Q V D V LQ + H V W R Q D Q G R W K H U V ZH J H W 7K H R S W LR Q V R Q E R Q G IX W X U H V IR U P X OD LV G H U LYH G H [D F W O\ OLNH W K H R S W LR Q V R Q G LV F R X Q W E R Q G V H [F H S W Q R W LQ J W K D W IX W X U H V S U LF H V D U H P D U W LQ J D OH V X Q G H U W K H Q H Z Q X P H U D LU H D Q G K H Q F H R Q H F D Q G H p Q H D G H Q V LW \ Je [ V X F K W K D W J e [ ) 7 H [S [
H[ S t A 00U
ZK H U H [ LV V X F K W K D W
5( )( 5( 1 &( 6
$ Q G H U V H Q 7 D Q G - / X Q G ? 6 W R F D K V W LF 9 R OD W LOLW \ D Q G 0H D Q ' U LIW LQ W K H 6 K R U W 5 D W H ' Lo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
' X D Q - ? 7H U P 6 W U X F W X U H D Q G % R Q G 2S W LR Q S U LF LQ J X Q G H U *$ 5 &+ : R U NLQ J 3 D S H U + R Q J . R Q J 8 Q LYH U V LW \ R I 6 F LH Q F H D Q G 7H F K Q R OR J \ ' X r H ' D Q G 5 . D Q ? $ < LH OG )D F W R U 0R G H O R I ,Q W H U H V W 5 D W H V 0D W K H P D W LF D O )LQ D Q F H
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o ) D Q G ( 6 F K ZD U W ] ? ,Q W H U H V W 5 D W H 9 R OD W LOLW \ D Q G W K H 7H U P 6 W U X F W X U H $ 7ZR )F D W R U *H Q H U D O ( TX LOLE U LX P 0R G H O -R X U Q D O R I )LQ D Q F H
0H U W R Q 5 7K H R U \ R I U D W LR Q D O R S W LR Q S U LF LQ J % H OO -R X U Q D O R I ( F R Q R P LF V D Q G 0D Q D J H P H Q W 6 F LH Q F H 1 H OV R Q ' ? $ 5 &+ 0R G H OV D V ' LoX V LR Q $ S S U R [LP D W LR Q V -R X U Q D O R I ( F R Q R P H W U LF V 3 U H V V : 6 7H X NR OV N\ : 9 H W W H U OLQ J % )OD Q Q H U \ 1 X P H U LF D O U H F LS H V LQ & 7K H D U W R I V F LH Q W Lp F F R P S X W LQ J &D P E U LG J H 8 Q LYH U V LW \ 3 U H V V 1 H Z < R U N 9 D V LF H N 2$ ? $ Q ( TX LOLE U LX P &K D U D F W H U L] D W LR Q R I W K H 7H U P -R X U Q D O R I )LQ D Q F LD O ( F R Q R P LF V 6 WUX F WX UH
7 DEOH 7K LV W D E OH V K R ZV W K H P D U NH W D Q G P R G H O W ZR ID F W R U ] H U R F R X S R Q \LH OG V LQ S H U F H Q W D J H V IR U H LJ K W G LoH U H Q W E LOOV Q R W H V D Q G E R Q G V D V R I -D Q X D U \ 7K H P D U NH W \LH OG V D U H F R P S X W H G IU R P W K H G D LO\ &5 6 3 E R Q G p OH X V LQ J D S U R F H G X U H R I : D J J R Q H U W K D W LV D P R G Lp F D W LR Q R I )LV K H U 1 \F K ND D Q G =H U YR V 0D W X U LW \ LQ G D \V 0D U NH W < LH OG 0R G H O < LH OG
Figure 1
0.1
0.09
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0 0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1.01
1.02
1.03
Moneyness
Shows the implied volatilties from the Black model for call options on discount bonds. The bond and the option expire in 500 and 100 days respectively. Moneyness is the ratio of strike price to the price of the discount bond.