Mathematical Biostatistics Boot Camp 1 Homework

Week 3

1. (1 point) A web site (www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band64/b64-7.html) for home pregnancy tests cites the following: When the subjects using the test were women who collected and tested their own samples, the overall sensitivity was 75%. Specicity was also low, in the range 52% to 75%. Suppose a subject has a negative test. Assume the lower bound for the specicity. What number is closest to the multiplier of the pre-test odds of pregnancy to obtain the post-test odds of pregnancy given a negative test result? a. 1.5 b. 0.5 c. 2 d. 1 1. b.

Solution: 1 sensitivity 1 0.75 0.25 DLR = = = = 0.4808 0.5 specicity 0.52 0.52

2. (1 point) A web site (www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band64/b64-7.html) for home pregnancy tests cites the following: When the subjects using the test were women who collected and tested their own samples, the overall sensitivity was 75%. Specicity was also low, in the range 52% to 75%. Assume the lower value for specicity. Suppose a subject has a negative test and that 30% of women taking pregnancy tests are actually pregnant. What number is closest to the probability of pregnancy given a negative test? a. 30% b. 60% c. 90% d. 20% e. 80% f. 50% g. 40% h. 70% i. 10% 2. d.

Solution: P (preg|) = P (|preg)P (preg) P (|preg)P (preg) + P (|pregc )P (pregc ) (1 P (+|preg))P (preg) = (1 P (+|preg))P (preg) + P (|pregc )(1 P (preg)) (1 0.75)(0.30) 0.075 = = = 0.1708 20% (1 0.75)(0.30) + (0.52)(0.7) 0.439

3. (1 point) Suppose that hospital infection counts are models as Poisson with mean . Recall the Poisson mass x e for x = 0, 1, . . . Three independent hospitals are observed for one year and their function with mean is x! infection counts were 5, 4, and 6, respectively. What is the ML estimate for ? a. 0 b. 1 c. 4 d. 4.5 e. 5 f. 5.5 g. 6 3. e.

Solution: xk e x1 e x2 e x3 e x1 +x2 +x3 e3 5+4+6 e3 15 e3 = = = = xk ! x1 !x2 !x3 ! x1 !x2 !x3 ! x1 !x2 !x3 ! x1 !x2 !x3 ! i=1 We will take the derivative of this function and set it to zero. It will be easier rst to take logarithm of the = log f = 15 log() 3 log(x1 !x2 !x3 !) function and then nd the maximum: f d 15 Now, we nd the maximum: (15 log() 3 log(x1 !x2 !x3 !)) = 3 = 0 and solve for to get = 5. d
3

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4. (1 point) Let X1 , . . . , Xn be iid exponential( ). That is, having density estimate for ?
n n n 1 n 1

1 x/ e for x > 0. What is the ML

n

a.
i=1

xi n

b.
i=1

xi

c.
i=1

log(xi ) n

d.
i=1

xi

e.
i=1

log(xi ) n

f.
i=1

xi n

4.

a.

Solution: n 1 1 1 xi / 1 e = n e(x1 ++xn )/ = n e i=1

n i=1

xi

We will take the derivative of this function and set it to zero. It will be easier rst to take logarithm of the n = log f = 1 function and then nd the maximum: f xi n log i=1 d Now, we nd the maximum: d 1
n

xi n log
i=1 n

1 = 2 xi n

xi
i=1

n = 0 and solve for to get

=
i=1

5. (1 point) Let X be a geometric random variable. That is X counts the number of coin ips until one obtains the rst head. The mass function is P (X = x) = p(1 p)x1 for x = 1, 2, . . . What is the maximum likelihood estimate for p if one observes a geometric random variable? a. 1/(x 1) b. 1/x c. 1/2 d. 1/(x + 1) 5. b.

Solution: We want to nd the derivative of this function and set it to zero. It will be easier to take the logarithm of the function rst: log f = log(p) + (x 1) log(1 p) and now we take the derivative: d 1 x1 (log(p) + (x 1) log(1 p)) = =0 dp p 1p 1 and solve for p to get p = . x

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6. (1 point) Let X be a Poisson count with mean . Recall the Poisson mass function with mean is x = 0, 1, . . . What is the maximum likelihood estimate for ? a. b. 1/x c. 1/2 d. x2 e. x 6. Solution: First, we take the logarithm of the function to get: log f = x log() log(x!) now we take the derivative and set it to zero to get maximum: x d (x log() log(x!)) = 1 = 0 d and solve for to get = x.

x e for x!

e.

Question: Points: Score:

1 1

2 1

3 1

4 1

5 1

6 1

Total 6

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