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Dedicated to all form 6 students Lim TH STPM Mathematics (T) Semester 3 Assignment C: Mathematical Investigation 2012/2013

Subjective probability is important in everyday life and sometimes it is obtained intuitively through experience or experiment. As an example, we may say that the probability of Player A beating Player B in a badminton match is 0.6 despite the fact that Player A has won 8 out of 10 previous matches. Subjective probability may be validated by appropriate sampling and inferences using confidence intervals or hypothesis tests. 1. Explain what is meant by subjective probability. Describe three real life situation involving subjective probability. Subjective probability is an individual person's measure of belief that an event will occur. Hence, subjective probability differs from person to person. The assignment of subjective probabilities to various outcomes is usually based on a combination of an individual's past experience, personal opinions and analysis of a particular situation. Subjective probability is often useful in making decisions in situations in which one cannot use a prior classical probability. Real life situation involving subjective probabilities can be: (i) The probability of Datuk Lee Chung Wei will win in the next badminton match with Lin Dan. (ii) The chance of success of a product to be sold out. (iii) The probability that it will be a rainy day for a particular day. 2. A 3-digit number may consist of three different digits, two same digits or three same digits. Perform a simple experiment to generate thirty 3-digit numbers and tabulate your results. Hence, give a reasonable probability for each of the cases. What can you deduce? In a car park, thirty car was selected and the car's registration number are recorded as follows: 0874 4569 4152 5037 1298 5895 3112 7107 2500 0872 7861 9593 5190 8474 5507 7075 3821 2646 6064 1909 6674 4726 7903 2878 8894 4919 9523 3708 5778 1210 However, only the last 3-digits are consider in our sample, thus we have: 874 569 152 037 298 895 112* 107 500* 872 861 593 190 474* 507 075 821 646* 064 909* 674 726 903 878* 894 919* 523 708 778* 210 Note: * for 2 same digits

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Dedicated to all form 6 students Lim TH Let X denotes the number of same digits x Frequency P(X = x) In my opinion, the probability of getting three different digits should be 0.72 two same digit should be 0.27 three same digit should be 0.01

0 22 0.7333

2 8 0.2667

3 0 0

From the result, the chance of getting three different digit is the highest, which is 0.7333, follow by two same digits, which is 0.2667. Lastly, the probability of getting three same digit is 0. 3. Use the random number function in your calculator or computer to obtain one hundred 3-digit random numbers between 000 and 999 inclusive. Determine the symmetric 90% and 95% confidence intervals for the probabilities that a 3-digit number has three different digits, two same digits and three same digits. Comment on your answer, The one hundred 3-digits number are as follows: 315 854 452 152 388* 812 820 154 250 646* 407 511* 928* 694 453 553* 756 859 383* 770* 364 967 419 731 395 777** 827 723 392 258 649 819 105 874 035 651 020 934 939* 843 416 118* 819 994* 473 499* 619 393* 574 722* 847 875 890 491 245 050* 213 609 483 142 637 310 636* 154 914 017 113* 278 663* 148 643 548 037 410 615 408 252* 426 789 624 Note: * for two same digits, ** for three same digits X 0 2 3 Frequency 77 22 1 P(X = x) 0.77 0.22 0.01 For 95% symmetrical confidence interval All different digits : ( ( ) ) ( )

374 620 267 159 673 496 410 440* 133* 056

497 449* 341 847 497 436 030* 721 398 164

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Dedicated to all form 6 students Lim TH Two same digits : ( Three same digits : ( ( ) ) ( ) ( ) ) ( )

For 90% symmetrical confidence interval All different digits : ( ( ) ) ( )

Two same digits : ( Three same digits : ( ( ) ) ( ) ( ) ) ( )

From the analysis, we are 95% confidence that the probability of getting: all different digit is about 0.69 to 0.85 two same digit is about 0.14 to 0.30 three same digit is about 0 to 0.03, since a probability cannot be negative. From the analysis, we are 90% confidence that the probability of getting: all different digit is about 0.70 to 0.84 two same digit is about 0.15 to 0.29 three same digit is about 0 to 0.03, since a probability cannot be negative.

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Dedicated to all form 6 students Lim TH 4. (a) Use the results in step 3 to revise the subjective probabilities obtained in step 2. (b) Obtain fifty 3 digit random numbers between 000 and 999 inclusive using a method other than the random number function from calculator or computer. How do you ensure that the sample obtained is a random sample? (c) Perform a suitable test to determine whether the data obtained in (b) fit the distribution you have suggested in (a). (a) Based on the results obtained from (3), the subjective probability that I suggest in (2) is acceptable, since none of the probability lies outside the range. (b) Ten identical cards, numbered 0, 1, 2, ..., 9 are put into a box. Three cards are chosen from the box with replacement in order to obtain 3-digit number with three same digits, two same digits and three different digits. The number obtained are as follows 705 343* 524 821 845 034 912 503 859 970 228* 892 052 903 449* 793 979* 572 764 324 248* 537 213 782 344* 247 534 177* 574 457 718 362 901 994* 926 701 303* 079 224* 521 536 327 731 862 305 126 978 819 172 002* Note: * for two same digits Since each number has the same probability of being chosen at any stage during the sampling process, the sample is random. (c) H0 : The data obtained in (b) fit the distribution in (a) H1 : The data obtained in (b) does not fit the distribution in (a) Test with 10% significance level Combination, i Observed Frequency, O Expected Frequency, E ( ) 0.25 0.6428 0 0.8928

Three different digits 39 0.7250 = 36 Two same digits 11 0.27 50 = 13.5 14 Three same digits 0 0.01 50 = 0.5 0 Total 50 50 2 = 0.8928 2 0.05, 2 = 4.605 Accept H0 since 2 < 2 0.05, 2. Thus, the data obtain in (b) fit the distribution in (a).

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Dedicated to all form 6 students Lim TH 5 (a) If a number is generated using the function 1000 , where n is a random number between 0 and 1, suggest a value for the probability that the 3-digit integer part (000 to 999 inclusive) of this number has three different digits. (b) Obtain sixty four 3-digit random number generated as in (a). Perform a suitable test to determine whether the probability that a number has three digits is more than the probability you have suggest in (a). (a) The probability of getting three different digit number will be different from the probability from (2). However, it should not deviate much, thus, my subjective probability of getting a three different digit number is 0.7. (b) 954 906 994* 827 999** 468 798 740 841 637 449* 914 533* 759 821 598 603 840 934 919* 323* 963 518 982 961 925 506 981 858* 994* 820 514 877* 449* 655* 876 969* 911* 799* 630 761 658 393* 997* 837 409 907 941 Note: * for two same digits, ** for three same digits 967 731 691 845 879 781 355* 857 819 893 872 858* 985 985 536 993*

(c)

H0 : P(3 different digit) = 0.7 H1 : P(3 different digit) > 0.7 From the sample, P(3 different digit) = 0.703125 Test with 10% significance level

( )

Reject H0 if z > z0.1 example z > 1.282. Since z < 1.282, accept H0. Thus the probability does not more than 0.7.