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Market Cycles
Bull
Recovery
500%
Bear
400%
10000
300%
% change in S&P Composite
1000
S&P 500 ‐ Log Scale
200%
100%
100
140
69
33
14
14
33
15
18
21
20
28
17
6
3
0%
16
31
24
43
16
18
21
41
56
23
11
39
14
29
19
21
10
70
58
20
12
58
0
164
267
109
5
0
S&P
10
1871 1872‐1882 1903‐ 1907‐ 1987‐
1957 to 61 2002‐07
‐100%
1
‐200%
Months
Notes Line represents S&P Composite Line drawn to Log Scale from 1902 to present. (Right vertical axis)
Breadth of Bar is in months. (Horizontal axis)
From Professor Shillers Data.
Bear Market is defined as 20% or more decline.
Recovery Period represents time and % change needed to get back to pre-bear market level.