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Forecasting
Roberta Russell & Bernard W. Taylor, III
Beni Asllani
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. University of Tennessee at Chattanooga
Lecture Outline
Strategic Role of Forecasting in Supply
Chain Management and TQM
Components of Forecasting Demand
Time Series Methods
Forecast Accuracy
Regression Methods
Predicting the Future
Qualitative forecast methods
subjective
Quantitative forecast
methods
based on mathematical
formulas
Accurate forecasting customer demand is a
key to providing good quality service
Continuous replenishment and JIT
complement TQM
eliminates the need for buffer inventory, which, in
turn, reduces both waste and inventory costs, a
primary goal of TQM
smoothes process flow with no defective items
meets expectations about ontime delivery, which is
perceived as goodquality service
Depend on
time frame
demand behavior
causes of behavior
Indicates how far into the future is
forecast
Short to midrange forecast
typically encompasses the immediate future
daily up to two years
Longrange forecast
usually encompasses a period of time longer
than two years
Trend
a gradual, longterm up or down movement of
demand
Random variations
movements in demand that do not follow a pattern
Cycle
an upanddown repetitive movement in demand
Seasonal pattern
an upanddown repetitive movement in demand
occurring periodically
Demand
Demand
Random
movement
Time Time
(a) Trend (b) Cycle
Demand
Demand
Time Time
(c) Seasonal pattern (d) Trend with seasonal pattern
Management, marketing, purchasing,
and engineering are sources for internal
qualitative forecasts
Delphi method
involves soliciting forecasts about
technological advances from experts
7.
Is accuracy of No 8b. Select new
forecast forecast model or
acceptable? adjust parameters of
existing model
Yes
9. Adjust forecast based 10. Monitor results
8a. Forecast over
on additional qualitative and measure forecast
planning horizon
information and insight accuracy
Naive forecast
demand the current period is used as next
period’s forecast
Simple moving average
stable demand with no pronounced
behavioral patterns
Weighted moving average
weights are assigned to most recent data
Jan 120 -
Feb 90 120
Mar 100 90
Apr 75 100
May 110 75
June 50 110
July 75 50
Aug 130 75
Sept 110 130
Oct 90 110
Nov - 90
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 11-15
Simple Moving Average
Σ
i = 1 Di
MAn =
n
where
n = number of periods
in the moving
average
Di = demand in period i
3
ORDERS MOVING
AVERAGE
Σ
i=1
Di
MONTH PER MA3 =
Jan 120 – 3
MONTH
–
Feb 90 – 90 + 110 + 130
103.3 = 3
Mar 100 88.3
95.0
Apr 75 78.3 = 110 orders
78.3 for Nov
May 110 85.0
105.0
June 50 110.0
July 75
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 11-17
5-month Simple Moving Average
ORDERS MOVING
5
AVERAGE
MONTH
Jan
PER
120 –
Σ
i=1
Di
MONTH MA5 =
–
5
Feb 90 –
–
90 + 110 + 130+75+50
Mar 100 – =
99.0
5
Apr 75 85.0
82.0 = 91 orders
May 110 88.0 for Nov
95.0
June 50 91.0
July 75
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 11-18
Smoothing Effects
150 –
125 – 5-month
100 –
75 –
Orders
50 –
3-month
25 –
Actual
0–
| | | | | | | | | | |
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Month
Adjusts WMAn = Σ Wi Di
i=1 i=1
moving
average where
method to Wi = the weight for period i,
more closely between 0 and 100
percent
reflect data
fluctuations
Σ W = 1.00
i
= 103.4 orders
Averaging method
Weights most recent data more strongly
Reacts more to recent changes
Widely used, accurate method
Ft +1 = α Dt + (1 - α)Ft
where:
Ft +1 = forecast for next period
Dt = actual demand for present period
Ft = previously determined forecast
for present period
α= weighting factor, smoothing constant
0.0 ≤ α ≤ 1.0
If α = 0.20, then Ft +1 = 0.20 Dt + 0.80 Ft
If α = 0, then Ft +1 = 0 Dt + 1 Ft 0 = Ft
Forecast does not reflect recent data
If α = 1, then Ft +1 = 1 Dt + 0 Ft = Dt
Forecast based only on most recent data
2 Feb 40 F3 = α D2 + (1 - α )F2
= (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)
3 Mar 41
= 37.9
4 Apr 37
F13 = α D12 + (1 - α )F12
7
Copyright 2006Jul 43 Inc.
John Wiley & Sons, 11-25
Exponential Smoothing
(cont.)
FORECAST, Ft + 1
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND (α = 0.3) (α = 0.5)
1 Jan 37 – –
2 Feb 40 37.00 37.00
3 Mar 41 37.90 38.50
4 Apr 37 38.83 39.75
5 May 45 38.28 38.37
6 Jun 50 40.29 41.68
7 Jul 43 43.20 45.84
8 Aug 47 43.14 44.42
9 Sep 56 44.30 45.71
10 Oct 52 47.81 50.85
11 Nov 55 49.06 51.42
12 Dec 54 50.84 53.21
13 Jan – 51.79 53.61
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 11-26
Exponential Smoothing (cont.)
70 –
60 – Actual α = 0.50
50 –
40 –
Orders
30 – α = 0.30
20 –
10 –
0–
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month
AFt +1 = Ft +1 + Tt +1
where
T = an exponentially smoothed trend factor
Tt +1 = β(Ft +1 - Ft) + (1 - β) Tt
where
Tt = the last period trend factor
β = a smoothing constant for trend
1 Jan 37 37.00 – –
2 Feb 40 37.00 0.00 37.00
3 Mar 41 38.50 0.45 38.95
4 Apr 37 39.75 0.69 40.44
5 May 45 38.37 0.07 38.44
6 Jun 50 38.37 0.07 38.44
7 Jul 43 45.84 1.97 47.82
8 Aug 47 44.42 0.95 45.37
9 Sep 56 45.71 1.05 46.76
10 Oct 52 50.85 2.28 58.13
11 Nov 55 51.42 1.76 53.19
12 Dec 54 53.21 1.77 54.98
13 Jan – 53.61 1.36 54.96
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 11-30
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Forecasts
70 –
Actual
50 –
40 –
Demand
30 –
Forecast (α = 0.50)
20 –
10 –
0–
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Period
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 11-31
Linear Trend Line
Σ xy - nxy
y = a + bx b =
Σ x2 - nx2
a = y-bx
where
a = intercept where
b = slope of the line n = number of periods
x = time period
Σx
y = forecast for x = = mean of the x values
demand for period x n
Σy
y = n = mean of the y values
a = y - bx
= 46.42 - (1.72)(6.5) = 35.2
70 –
60 –
Actual
50 –
Demand
40 –
10 –
0–
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Period
Di
Seasonal factor = Si =
∑D
D142.0 D3 21.9
S1 = = = 0.28 S3 = = = 0.15
∑ D 148.7 ∑D 148.7
D229.5 D455.3
S2 = = = 0.20 S4 = = = 0.37
∑ D 148.7 ∑ D 148.7
For 2005
Forecast error
difference between forecast and actual demand
MAD
mean absolute deviation
MAPD
mean absolute percent deviation
Cumulative error
Average error or bias
Σ|| Dt - Ft |
MAD = n
where
t = period number
Dt = demand in period t
Ft = forecast for period t
n = total number of periods
= absolute value
Tracking signal
monitors the forecast to see if it is biased
high or low
∑(Dt - Ft) E
Tracking signal = =
MAD MAD
1 MAD ≈ 0.8 б
Control limits of 2 to 5 MADs are used most
frequently
1 37 37.00 – – – –
2 40 37.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00
3 41 37.90 3.10 6.10 3.05 2.00
4 37 38.83 -1.83 4.27 2.64 1.62
5 45 38.28
Tracking 6.72 for period
signal 10.99 3 3.66 3.00
6 50 40.29 9.69 20.68 4.87 4.25
7 43 43.20 -0.20 20.48 4.09 5.01
6.10
8 47 TS3 = 3.86 =24.34
43.14 2.00 4.06 6.00
9 56 44.30 3.05 36.04
11.70 5.01 7.19
10 52 47.81 4.19 40.23 4.92 8.18
11 55 49.06 5.94 46.17 5.02 9.20
12 54 50.84 3.15 49.32 4.85 10.17
2σ –
Tracking signal (MAD)
0σ –
-1σ –
-2σ –
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period
∑(Dt - Ft)2
σ=
n-1
6.12 –
0–
Errors
-6.12 –
-12.24 –
-18.39 –
LCL = -3σ
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period
Linear regression
a mathematical technique that relates a
dependent variable to an independent
variable in the form of a linear equation
Correlation
a measure of the strength of the relationship
between independent and dependent
variables
y = a + bx a = y-bx
Σ xy - nxy
b =
Σ x2 - nx2
where
a = intercept
b = slope of the line
Σ x
x = = mean of the x data
n
Σ y
y = n = mean of the y data
∑xy - nxy2
b=
∑x2 - nx2
(2,167.7) - (8)(6.125)(43.36)
=
(311) - (8)(6.125)2
= 4.06
a = y - bx
= 43.36 - (4.06)(6.125)
= 18.46
50,000 –
40,000 –
Attendance, y
30,000 –
20,000 –
Linear regression line,
10,000 –
y = 18.46 + 4.06x
| | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Wins, x
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 11-53
Correlation and Coefficient of
Determination
Correlation, r
Measure of strength of relationship
Varies between -1.00 and +1.00
Coefficient of determination, r2
Percentage of variation in dependent
variable resulting from changes in the
independent variable
(8)(2,167.7) - (49)(346.9)
r=
[(8)(311) - (49)2] [(8)(15,224.7) - (346.9)2]
r = 0.947
Coefficient of determination
r2 = (0.947)2 = 0.897
Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 11-55
Multiple Regression
Study the relationship of demand to two or
more independent variables