2011 3 31

3
1

13-15

(8621) 6860 4866 8523

yusheng.wang@bocigroup.com
S1300208010260

, CFA
(8621) 6860 4866 8520
eric.hu@bocigroup.com
S1300200010035

2 126.7 4.6%
2.6%
11.6%1-2 10%
10.5% 6.8%
1-2 1.6 ()
1.1 1.6
1.8
12.8%
9.7%
2 68.1 0.7%
3

2011
15%
10% 13%

1
4

13-15

BOCR <GO>thomsonreuters.com ( www.bociresearch.com.)


...............................................................................3
............................................................................................5
........................................................................ 11
.........................................24

2011 3 31


2 126.7 4.6%1-2
315.5 10%
10.5% 6.8%
2011 SUV MPV
35% 20% 15%
23 5%
1-2
2011 12%
18%
() 15%

6
22.5 1
2011
2011 2.70

A 2010 2011
14.7 11.7 2011 10
1
4

13-15 30-50%
1

2011 3 31

 1. (TTM)
70

()

60
50
40
30

20
10

2. 2010-2011

-A

A
H
-H

()
(%)
()
() () () 2010 2011E 2010 2011E 2010 2011E

29.25
18.45
170,523
1.49
1.95 108.2 31.3
12.4
9.5

22.50
13.51
17,411
0.90
1.50 246.2 66.7
15.0
9.0

15.67
16.78
27,309
1.12
1.21
11.5
8.0
15.0
13.9

10.92
9.54
25,623
0.76
0.91
90.8
19.7
12.6
10.5

27.30
23.52
24,810
1.56
2.10
58.6
34.6
15.1
11.2

40.50
33.63
29,030
1.98
2.70
62.3
36.4
17.0
12.5

29.87
24.58
12,779
1.65
1.99
52.8
20.7
14.9
12.3

22.88
25.10
10,528
1.60
1.76
56.9
10.0
15.7
14.3

70.7
55.43
92,351
4.07
4.71
98.6
15.7
13.6
11.8

15.62
12.76
25,558
0.89
1.12
58.9
25.4
14.3
11.4

44.25
41.67
23,638
2.36
2.95 198.7 25.0
17.7
14.1

12.81
33,091
0.98
1.19
41.4
22.0
13.1
10.7

33.79
7,147
2.58
3.10
53.6
20.0
13.1
10.9

21.55
11,754
1.32
1.90 123.7 43.9
16.3
11.3
90.2
27.1
14.7
11.7
() () ()

61
46.20
76,973
4.07
4.71
98.6
15.7
9.6
8.3

15.42
12.06
103,909
1.26
1.36
73.8
7.7
8.1
7.5

3.46
2.45
6,081
0.12
0.14
25.8
15.6
16.9
14.6
66.1
13.0
11.5
10.1

()
(%)
2010 2011E 2010 2011E
2.6
2.3
20.7
24.0
3.2
2.8
21.6
30.7
2.9
2.4
19.3
17.2
2.0
1.7
16.2
16.0
3.1
2.8
20.4
24.9
4.7
3.7
27.9
29.9
5.1
3.8
34.6
30.8
3.0
2.3
19.2
15.8
5.0
4.3
36.6
36.8
4.4
3.4
30.5
30.1
6.9
5.8
39.3
41.3
2.3
2.0
17.7
18.5
3.4
2.6
25.8
24.1
5.0
3.4
30.5
30.4
3.8
3.1
25.7
26.5
3.5
2.3
0.7
2.2

3.0
1.8
0.7
1.9

36.6
29.0
4.2
23.3

36.8
24.5
4.8
22.0

* 3 29

2011 3 31


2 126.7 4.6%
33.1% 2.6% 96.7
11.6% 30 2

1 1-2
315.5 10%
10.5% 6.8%

3. 2011 2
()

MPV
SUV

2011
2
1,266,998
967,242
633,657
29,366
105,217
199,002
299,756
19,558
208,290
20,340
4,135
47,433

2011
1-2
3,155,415
2,496,376
1,704,104
76,693
253,715
461,864
659,039
56,860
441,939
42,705
11,790
105,745

2010
1-2
2,876,070
2,259,062
1,553,319
64,353
164,816
476,574
617,008
50,193
397,376
60,411
9,800
99,228

2011 2
(%)
(33.1)
(36.7)
(40.8)
(37.7)
(29.1)
(24.3)
(17.8)
(47.4)
(13.0)
(6.0)
(46.0)
(19.3)

2011 2
(%)
4.6
2.6
1.7
16.5
49.5
(11.3)
11.6
4.7
22.3
(25.2)
50.8
(4.6)

2011 2
(%)
9.7
10.5
9.7
19.2
53.9
(3.1)
6.8
13.3
11.2
(29.3)
20.3
6.6

2 SUV MPV
49.5% 16.5%
1.7%2
11.3%

(++) 2 7.5
5.6%()
24.7% 25.2%
15%

2 17.6%
1 12%

2011 3 31

2 2,335
29.9%1-2
6.9% 18%1-2

4. 2005-2010 2011
(%)

()

MPVs
SUVs

2005
2.3
(29.5)
(42.8)
(4.9)
11.4
15.3
(1.6)
14.5
(7.5)
(1.7)
21.4
24.3
42.8
20.6
9.9
13.5

2006
13.6
20.0
64.2
3.9
11.4
24.7
7.3
9.4
4.3
8.1
30.0
36.9
22.6
21.2
10.4
25.1

2007
18.6
44.3
91.9
17.2
16.2
8.4
21.0
26.6
13.6
22.7
21.7
23.5
18.1
50.1
7.6
21.8

2008
6.3
11.8
9.2
(12.5)
5.3
18.9
(2.5)
9.6
0.6
(5.7)
7.3
6.8
(12.6)
25.3
7.7
6.7

2009
34.3
22.8
8.7
24.6
30.0
72.8
4.0
7.2
3.6
3.4
52.9
48.1
26.1
47.2
83.4
46.4

2010
30.5
55.9
68.0
5.4
25.7
21.0
25.1
45.9
9.7
26.4
33.2
27.1
78.9
101.3
27.8
32.4

2011E
10
15
0
5
12
5
13
18
5
15
15
15
20
35
5
14

5.

6.

)
1,200,000

300,000

1,000,000

240,000

800,000

( )

180,000

600,000
120,000

400,000

60,000

200,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112
2007
2010

2008
2011

2009

2011 3 31

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2007
2010

2008
2011

2009

 7. SUV

8. MPV

)
160,000

)
60,000

140,000

50,000

120,000
100,000

40,000

80,000

30,000

60,000

20,000

40,000

10,000

20,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112
2007
2010

2008
2011

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

2009

9. ()

10.

(
90,000

40,000

()

75,000
30,000

60,000

20,000

45,000
30,000

10,000

15,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

11.

12.

250,000

()

35,000

( )

30,000

200,000

25,000

150,000

20,000

100,000

15,000

50,000

10,000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2007
2010

2008
2011

2009

2011 3 31

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112
2007
2010

2008
2011

2009

 13.
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

14.

( )

12,000

( )

10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2007
2010

2008
2011

2009

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2007
2010

2008
2011

2009

1-2 1.6 ()
70.5% 1.1 1.6
72.3% 1.8

1-2 1.6
12.8% 9.7%
1-2 116.1 3.17%
46.5% 3.3
54.6
32.07% 1.7

50%
40%

2011 3 31

 15. 1.6
74

16. 2011 1-2

(% )

( )
140

72

120

70

100

68

80

66

60

64

40

20

62
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2009

2010

2011

2011 2 68.1
0.7%
0.4%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2% 0.5% 3

17. (%)

2008

2009

2010

(5.8)
(4.3)
(5.9)
(6.9)
(5.7)
(0.7)

(2.3)
0.2
(1.7)
(2.9)
(2.3)
(2.2)

(2.2)
2.7
(2.6)
(2.0)
(3.4)
(3.9)

2010
1
0.8
7.8
0.4
1.0
(0.4)
(2.1)

2010
2
(1.4)
5.7
(2.6)
(1.0)
(3.1)
(2.8)

2010
3
(3.7)
(1.1)
(4.2)
(3.5)
(4.8)
(4.8)

2010
4
(4.2)
(1.6)
(4.0)
(4.3)
(5.4)
(5.9)

2011
1
(2.9)
(2.7)
(2.4)
(3.6)
(3.0)
(4.8)

2011
2
(3.6)
(3.1)
(2.9)
(4.0)
(2.7)
(6.1)

11 2
/11 1 %
(0.7)
(0.2)
(0.5)
(0.7)
0.4
(1.5)

2011 3 31

2011 3 31
80
0.0%

70
-1.8%

60
-3.6%

01/04
04/04
07/04
10/04
01/05
04/05
07/05
10/05
01/06
04/06
07/06
10/06
01/07
04/07
07/07
10/07
01/08
04/08
07/08
10/08
01/09
04/09
07/09
10/09
01/10
04/10
07/10
10/10
01/11

18. (2004-2011)
100
(% )
3.6%

()

90
()

1.8%

: ,

10

1-2 9.7%

(+40.2%)(+33.4%)(+23.6%)
(+21.5%)SUV
(+171.%)(+51.3%)

SUV

19. 1-2
()

2
71,532
67,094
5,868
26,814
35,295
9,689
17,434
40,831
23,513
13,634
14,161
7,561
24,535
16,018
21,594
21,592
9,200
39,793
10,600
25,154
30,539
26,303
74,903
633,657

(%)
32.0
15.0
(36.0)
13.2
(1.4)
2.0
(7.4)
(2.7)
(24.1)
(9.3)
(18.6)
(6.8)
(12.2)
5.7
30.7
(17.3)
(21.7)
20.1
19.9
(17.2)
(2.0)
(23.1)
15.4
1.7

1-2
193,656
164,584
17,334
68,741
99,596
22,417
45,954
137,358
61,252
39,561
51,621
17,131
65,850
38,157
47,024
56,814
26,497
95,941
29,743
90,784
76,472
77,794
179,823
1,704,104

(%)
40.2
33.4
(21.5)
13.0
10.2
5.1
(0.8)
9.9
(7.8)
2.5
5.8
6.9
(5.0)
8.2
21.5
(3.6)
(10.7)
6.6
23.6
7.3
4.1
(18.5)
14.7
9.7

2011 3 31

11

 20. 1-2 SUV

()

2
10,924
8,228
8,489
7,160
11,295
7,169
1,228
5,576
11,680
33,468
105,217

(%)
175.6
70.9
43.9
42.1
16.0
(22.4)
8.7
0.8
36.9
49.5

1-2
27,095
18,880
24,602
17,498
27,034
18,352
3,488
13,196
24,612
78,958
253,715

(%)
171.9
82.9
54.5
51.3
33.9
(0.8)
10.7
(2.0)
29.6
53.9

21. 1-2 MPV

()
GL8

2
5,373
4,242
1,578
18,173
29,366

(%)
97.8
3.6
(41.7)
15.9
16.5

1-2
11,746
12,886
3,159
48,902
76,693

(%)
39.6
10.7
(49.4)
28.7
19.2

2 28.3 35.3%
1
32.5% 35.2%
MG 11.5%
2 33.1%
7.7%
1

18% MG
2010 16 22
136 10% 2011 1.95
10

2011 3 31

12

 22.
2008

40,841
38,220
2,961
54,209
341
237
1,861
5,789
144,458

()

MG

2009

60,687
60,636
7,501
88,754
325
259
1,633
7,258
227,053

2010

83,446
86,582
13,386
102,876
306
258
2,542
9,175
298,571

2010
1
72,075
78,597
12,691
120,243
367
348
2,902
10,180
297,402

2010
2
78,152
81,550
14,014
106,823
346
235
3,603
9,969
294,692

2010
3
88,628
87,390
13,434
96,165
224
134
2,270
8,619
296,864

2010
4
94,931
98,937
13,385
88,272
288
316
1,432
7,932
305,493

2011
1
96,508
106,036
15,661
117,571
143
85
2,858
10,698
349,558

2011 1 2011 12

23.
140,000

24.
120000 ()

()

120,000

100000

100,000

80000

80,000

60000

60,000

40000

40,000

20000

20,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
GM2007
GM2009
GM2011

GM2008
GM2010

VW2007
VW2009
VW2011

VW2008
VW2010

25.

26.

120000

()
14000

()

12000

100000

10000

80000

8000

60000

6000

40000

4000

20000

2000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2008
2010

2009
2011

2011 3 31

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2008
2010

2009
2011

13


2 36,540 13.3%
271.1% 3,737
90.4% 17,638
2 1 34.9%
1-2 9.3 17.6%
23.6%
(9.7%)
18-20 ( 4.5
)

MPV 15-20%
18%
2011 1.50
10

27.
()
MPV
SRV

(+)

2008

3,025
854
974
899
8,780
1,787
16,801

2009

3,836
977
5,467
1,077
12,676
1,660
25,693

2010

5,390
1,572
9,708
2,046
16,171
1,993
36,879

2010
1
6,125
1,886
12,463
1,749
18,522
1,525
42,271

2010
2
4,896
1,441
8,287
2,566
19,321
2,405
38,916

2010
3
5,406
1,167
7,611
2,177
13,927
2,066
32,354

2010
4
5,132
1,792
11,073
1,692
12,914
1,975
34,577

2011
1
6,462
1,744
14,872
2,322
18,961
1,966
46,327

2011 1 2011 12

2011 3 31

14

 28. MPV

29. SUV

()
10000

()
3000

8000

2400

6000

1800

4000

1200

2000

600
0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112
2008

2009

2010

2011

2008

2009

30.

31.

()
20000

2010

2011

()
25000
20000

15000

15000
10000
10000
5000

5000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112
2008

2009

2010

2011

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112
2008

2009

2010

2011

2 3.2 2.5%
SUV 42.1% 7,160
10 5,000
K5 3

K2
6 43

2011 3 31

15

 32.
2008

342
6,196
2,492
2,708
11,834
9,029
2,708

()

SUV
SUV

SUV

2009

214
8,584
3,422
4,025
1,702
3,657
20,116
16,387
3,657

2010

278
6,896
3,669
8,813
1,439
5,645
3,904
27,752
21,093
6,621

2010
1
101
7,878
3,656
8,724
1,966
5,924
28,400
22,325
5,924

2010
2
342
6,448
3,136
7,411
1,430
6,439
25,206
18,767
6,439

2010
3
404
6,370
3,897
8,172
1,282
5,501
25,627
20,126
5,501

2010
4
265
6,886
3,985
10,943
1,076
4,716
3,904
31,777
23,156
8,621

2011
1
148
7,073
4,055
10,844
858
3,985
4,765
31,726
22,977
8,749

2011 1 2011 12

33.

34. SUV

30000

12000

25000

10000

20000

8000

15000

6000

10000

4000

5000

2000

0
Jan

Feb Mar

2008

Apr May Jun

2009

Jul

Aug Sep
2010

Oct Nov Dec

2011

Jan

Feb Mar

2008

Apr May Jun

2009

Jul

Aug Sep
2010

Oct Nov Dec

2011

2 14.3 10%
2 1.6
5.7% 2.5 12.2%
2 6.7 24.7%
2 30.7%

2010 1-4 18.4

14.1 12.1 17.1 1
1
23

2011 3 31

16

 35.
()

2008

16,380
13,233
3,921
17,056
10,344
8,606
69,540
33,534
3,351

2009

33,725
20,146
11,350
26,345
12,506
10,020
114,091
65,220
8,898

2010

48,105
21,934
17,292
34,291
16,668
16,001
154,291
87,331
16,217

2010
1
66,369
27,975
21,651
35,611
17,690
15,035
184,332
115,996
18,674

2010
2
35,771
22,239
18,196
31,062
16,393
16,839
140,501
76,206
12,698

2010
3
33,876
16,092
10,437
30,240
14,509
15,898
121,053
60,405
12,629

2010
4
56,404
21,430
18,884
40,251
18,079
16,229
171,276
96,717
20,865

2011
1
55,507
24,333
20,795
33,262
19,079
18,376
171,351
100,635
23,512

2011 1 2011 12

2011 () 90 (
5%) 25 ( 28%)
70 ( 47 23 15%)
2010-2011 0.76 0.91 (
) 2011 10.5

36.
30,000

37.

( )

120,000

25,000

100,000

20,000

80,000

15,000

60,000

10,000

40,000

5,000

20,000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2008

2009

2010

2011

2011 3 31

()

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2008

2009

2010

2011

17

 38.

39.
()
54,000

()
25,000

45,000

20,000

36,000

15,000

27,000
10,000

18,000

5,000

9,000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2008

2009

2010

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2008

2011

2009

2010

2011

2 1.4 6.8%
( 8) 5,764 8,636
B50 14.5% 2
1-2 5.2% 6 50
9.3% 22.8% 70 31.4%
20.1%

40.
()

B70
B50

2008

189
5,816
0
3,979
0
9,984
5,816
3,979

2009

65
6,806
1,444
4,352
3,012
15,678
8,250
7,363

2010
2010
1
16
24
7,864
5,823
3,590
2,711
4,136
4,716
6,881
6,957
22,488
20,231
11,454
8,534
11,018
11,674

2010
2
15
7,981
3,301
4,733
6,959
22,989
11,283
11,692

2010
3
24
8,272
3,509
3,407
5,756
20,968
11,781
9,163

2010
2011
4 1
2
0
9,380
6,071
4,839
1,536
3,690
3,604
7,853
8,570
25,764
19,781
14,220
14,073
11,542
13,594

2011 1 2011 12

2011 3 31

18

 41.

42. 6

()

8,000

12,000

7,000

()

10,000

6,000

8,000

5,000
4,000

6,000

3,000

4,000

2,000

2,000

1,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2009

2010

2007
2010

2011

2008
2011

43. B70

44. B50

7,500

()

2009

()
12000
10500

6,000

9000
7500

4,500

6000

3,000

4500
3000

1,500

1500

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2007
2010

2008
2011

2009

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2009

2010

2011

2 1 32.7%
12,585 3,409 20.8%
( SUV) 25% 4,374 JMC
51.8%
1-2 37.0%

3-5 1-2
3 1

2011 3 31

19

 18-20% SUV
1.5 23 2011

4
2011
2.70

45.
()

JMC
JMC +SUV

2008

2,289
3,238
2,403
7,931

2009

2,799
3,854
2,904
9,557

2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
1 2 3 4 1
4,363
3,813
4,596
4,396
4,648
4,740
5,519
5,088
6,298
5,509
5,180
6,402
5,035
4,866
4,793
4,960
5,519
5,634
14,917
13,767
15,688
14,866
15,346
16,776

2011 1 2011 12

46. (++SUV)
18000

47.

()

7000

( )

6000

15000

5000

12000

4000

9000

3000

6000

2000

3000

1000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 12
2008

2009

2010

2011

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2008

2009

2010

2011

2 4.9 26.3%
() 8,999 59.8%
5.6% 29,572
14.9% 80.8% 7,888 2

11.7% 1.5% 3-5

2011 3 31

20

 1
2,000
2011
12.8
2011
78 630 26
30% 2011 2.10
11.2 2011
48.
2008

4,975
27,421
1,148
212
304
34,061

()

2009

7,053
39,872
1,780
334
1,130
50,168

2010

8,702
44,813
1,984
306
1,102
56,917

2010
1
9,057
46,243
2,189
403
1,479
59,371

2010
2
10,720
50,139
1,995
268
1,200
64,322

2010
3
7,231
39,630
1,846
276
896
49,878

2010
4
7,750
43,317
1,907
278
832
54,085

2011
1
7,572
39,111
1,773
199
903
49,556

2011 1 2011 12

49.
14,000

50.

()

70,000

12,000

60,000

10,000

50,000

8,000

40,000

6,000

30,000

4,000

20,000

2,000

10,000

()

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112

2008

2008

2009

2010

2011

2011 3 31

2009

2010

2011

21


2011 2 810 38.3%
491 284 35
2
1-2
10% 21.2%

2010 1-4 2,338 3,323 3,732

4,330 3
1 20%
51.
()

2008

992
1,031
274
2,296

2009

933
1,126
290
2,349

2010

1,464
1,651
316
3,431

2010
1
1,031
1,122
185
2,338

2010
2
1,282
1,569
471
3,323

2010
3
1,635
1,803
295
3,732

2010
4
1,908
2,110
312
4,330

2011
1
1,399
1,171
167
2,736

2011 1 2011 12

2011 2 6,265 54.2%1-2

14,157 64.6%
1
2
15%-20%
4
1
2011 1.80
52.
()

2008

6,589

2009

6,713

2010

9,109

2010
1
7,385

2010
2
12,975

2010
3
7,933

2010
4
8,144

2011
1
7,079

2011 1 2011 12

2011 3 31

22

 53.
6000

54.

()

()
15000

5000

12000

4000

9000

3000
6000

2000

3000

1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2008

2009

2010

2011

2011 3 31

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112

2008

2009

2010

2011

23


(600104.SS/ 18.45)
(600418.SS/ 13.51)
(000800.SZ/ 16.78)
(000625.SZ/ 9.54200625.SZ/ 6.18)
(600166.SS/ 23.52)
(000550.SZ/ 33.63200550.SZ/ 25.09)
(600066.SS/ 24.58)
(000951.SZ/ 25.10)
(000338.SZ/ 55.432338.HK/ 46.20)
(600660.SS/ 12.76)
(000581.SZ/ 41.67200581.SZ/ 30.87)
(600741.SS/ 12.81)
(600742.SS/ 33.79)
(600805.SS/ 21.55)
(0489.HK/ 12.06)
(1122.HK/ 2.45)

2011 3 29

() 6 10%
() 6 10%
(NR) () 6
10%

2011 3 31

24

/ 1%

2011 3 31

25

2011

200
39
200121
: (8621) 6860 4866
: (8621) 5888 3554

:(852) 2867 6333

:
10 10800 8521065
21 10800 1521065
800 852 3392
:(852) 2147 9513

:(852) 2867 6333

:(852) 2147 9513

28
2 15
:100032
: (8610) 6622 9000
: (8610) 6657 8950

()
90
EC4N 6HA
: (4420) 7022 8888
: (4420) 7022 8877

()
1270 202
NY 10020
: (1) 212 259 0888
: (1) 212 259 0889

()
199303046Z

(049908)
: (65) 6412 8856 / 6412 8630
: (65) 6534 3996 / 6532 3371