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S. American Woodmark Corp. are de pltit peste 5 luni 750.000 GBP unui
furnizor extern. Pentru a se proteja la fluctuaia cursului de schimb, importatorul
ncheie un contract forward prin intermediul Citibank New York, care practic
ratele dobnzii din tabelul de mai jos. Cursul spot GBP/USD practicat de Citibank
New York n prezent este 1,5478/512. S se discute eficiena operaiunii de hedging
cu contracte forward, tiind c la scaden cursul spot GBP/USD este 1,5462/89.
Rata
dobnzii
1M 3M 6M 9M
p
r
a
r
p
r
a
r
p
r
a
r
p
r
a
r
GBP 5,95% 6,07% 6,12% 6,30% 6,21% 6,39% 6,25% 6,45%
USD 3,80% 4,00% 3,95% 4,15% 3,95% 4,32% 3,79% 4,03%
4. Petrom SA ncheie un contract forward pe cursul EUR/RON cu scadena peste
3 luni pentru suma de 100.000 EUR. Dac la scaden, pentru un curs spot de 4,25,
compania ar obine un rezultat de 700 lei, iar pentru un curs de 4,3456, ar obine o
pierdere de 256 lei, s se determine: poziia n contract i cursul forward.
S. n data de 25 octombrie 2010, pentru perechea EUR/CHF se cunosc
urmtoarele informaii afiate n tabelul de mai jos:
Simbol
EUR/CHF
Puncte
swap
bid
Puncte
swap
ask
Forward
1
bid
Forward
ask
ON -0.34 -0.21 1.35707 1.35738
SN -0.31 -0.21 1.35707 1.35738
1W -1.9 -1.55 1.35691 1.35725
2W -3.5 -3.04 1.35675 1.35710
3W -5.16 -4.96 1.35658 1.35690
1M -9 -7 1.35620 1.35670
2M -18 -14 1.35530 1.35600
3M -27 -23 1.35440 1.35510
4M -35.5 -34.8 1.35355 1.35392
5M -44.3 -43.5 1.35267 1.35305
6M -58 -50 1.35130 1.35240
9M -88.23 -82.33 1.34828 1.34917
1Y -122 -110 1.34490 1.34640
2Y -247 -227 1.33240 1.33470
Sursa: www.forexpros.com
Se cere:
a) Precizai care este moneda ce face prim, respectiv discount.
b) Ct este cursul spot EUR/CHF? Cursurile forward bid i ask sunt implicite
sau de pia?
1
Cursurile forward bid i ask din tabel sunt determinate innd seama de cotaiile spot i cotaiile
punctelor swap.
3
Sursa: Bloomberg
c) Dac un trader dispune de 500.000 euro, i poate folosi n operaiuni de arbitraj pe
cursul forward i rata dobnzii? Dac da, explicai ce operaiuni ar trebui s
realizeze traderul. Ce observai?
11. Comentai pe baza urmtorului tabel diferenele dintre contractele forward
i contractele futures.
12. Compania Impact are de pltit peste 2 luni suma de 100.000 USD. Pentru
ai acoperi expunerea la riscul valutar, folosete contracte futures pe cursul
USD/RON cu scadena peste 3 luni i pre la termen 3,065. tiind c la momentul
deschiderii poziiei, cursul spot
0 t
S a fost 3,05, iar valoarea unui contract futures este
1000 USD, s se discute rezultatul speculatorului n urmtoarele cazuri:
a) =
1 t
S 3,065, = ) , (
1
T t F 3,08; b) =
1 t
S 3,041, = ) , (
1
T t F 3,055.
7
1S. Un exportator are de ncasat peste 3 luni suma de 100.000 euro. Pentru a-i
acoperi expunerea la riscul valutar foloseste contracte futures pe cursul EUR/RON
cu scadena 3 luni i pre la termen de 4,3750. tiind c la momentul deschiderii
poziiei, cursul spot era de 4,37, s se determine rezultatul exportatorului dac la
scadena contractului cursul spot devine:
a) S
T
= 4,3500; b) S
T
= 4,3850.
14. Un speculator anticipeaz o depreciere a euro n urmtoarele luni, iar n
acest scop tranzacioneaz pe 2 martie 2010, 100 contracte futures pe EUR/RON cu
scadenele septembrie i decembrie:
Spot 4.3290
Futures iun. 2010 4.3280
Futures sep. 2010 4.3260
Futures dec. 2010 4.3260
Futures mar. 2011 4.3275
Dac pe 13 septembrie 2010, cursul futures pentru contractele la termen cu
scaden septembrie a fost 4.3110, respectiv cursul pentru contractele la termen cu
scaden decembrie a fost 4.2903, stabilii profitul sau pierderea speculatorului. Un
contract futures EUR/RON se ncheie pe 1000 EUR.
1S. Presupunem c pe piaa forex n 15 iunie 2010 s-ar fi nregistrat cotaiile
valutare din tabelul de mai jos:
Cotaii valutare EUR/RON EUR/USD
Spot 4.3094 1.2463
Futures sep. 2010 4.2654 1.2374
Futures dec. 2010 4.1989 1.2219
Futures mar. 2010 4.1980 1.2038
Futures iun. 2011 4.1895 1.1992
Pentru a simplifica s-au considerat cotaiile bid egale cu ask. tiind c vei anticipa
n decembrie o apreciere a dolarului comparativ cu leul, iar cotaiile futures pentru
contractele la termen pe 13 decembrie ar fi:
Cotaii valutare EUR/RON EUR/USD
Futures dec. 2010 4.1810 1.2196
Un speculator ar ctiga sau ar pierde, tranzacionnd 100.000 USD prin
contractele futures cu scadena decembrie 2010? Justificai.
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9
then the recent weakness in the dollar may accelerate. Because investors who execute carry trade
strategies buy dollars in exchange for yen, their transactions create demand for the dollar and help to
support the exchange rate. Without this support, some observers worry that the dollar would fall
dramatically and create a currency crisis of the sort usually associated with developing countries.
Whether these consequences actually come about, remains to be seen.
The carry trade is one example of how sophisticated investors use global financial markets to
seek profits. Although the strategy involves risk, it has rewarded its users significantly over the past
several years. But if the success of this strategy is coming to an end, it may have an impact on the
earnings of financial institutions that have made substantial use of the carry trade. These trades
allowed some traders to rake in big profits, but they also played a part in the credit crisis that struck
world economic systems in 2008. It's not surprising that, with all the panic, the smarties have been
pulling out of these carry-trade deals. As they do, of course, the higher demand for the yen causes it to
appreciate, thus wiping out the interest-rate gains and making it more urgent for others to get out.
Fingers are being burnt as we speak.
Setting Up The Carry Trade
To become a successful carry trader, understanding the role that interest rates play in the FX
market is a crucial task. A country offering high interest rates will attract more capital as investors
seek to capitalize higher returns. As interest rates rise, investment will follow, which can in turn
increase the value of the currency. Carry trader's main focus becomes the expectation on the direction of
a country's interest rate, to ensure their high rate of return.
Generally, traders seek to buy currencies with high interest rates, and seek to short currencies
who offer low interest rates.
The carry trade works best under certain market conditions, and the selection of the currency
pair can make the difference between a losing and a profitable trade. When selecting the currency pair,
traders want to observe two things. On the one hand, the trader wants to make sure he is buying the
currency that has the higher interest rate and is selling the currency that has a lower interest rate in
comparison. On the other hand, the trader also wants to view the health of the economy for the
currency pair to ensure the market will move to his/her favor. Essentially, the trader will be buying a
currency with a stronger economy and selling the currency with a weaker economy. Some currency
pairs that are usually selected to apply the carry trade strategy are: GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, AUD/JPY,
EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, and USD/JPY. In the 2000s, the term "carry trade" became synonymous with the
"yen carry trade".
Carry Trade Strategy Example
The carry trade is a popular trading strategy used in the FX market. It guarantees traders at least some
return on their medium and longer term positions.
In the Carry Trade, speculators buy high interest currencies and sell currencies with low interest rates. Th
positions ensure that each trading day rollover-interest will be posted to the trader's account. Thus, the Ca
Trade has the potential to significantly enhance a trader's return.
ExampleLeverageCutsBothWaysinYenCarryTrade
Let'srunthroughanexampleofayencarrytradetoseewhatcan
happenwhenthemarketisboomingandwhenitgoesbust.
10
1. Borrow100millionyenforoneyearat0.50%perannum
2. SelltheborrowedamountandbuyU.S.dollarsatanexchange
rateof115yenperdollar
3. Usethisamount(approximatelyUS$870,000)as10%marginto
acquireaportfolioofmortgagebondspaying15%
4. Thesizeofthemortgagebondportfolioistherefore$8.7million
(i.e.$870,000isusedas10%margin,andtheremaining90%,or
$7.83million,isborrowedat5%).
Afteroneyear,assumetheentireportfolioisliquidatedandtheyenloan
isrepaid.Inthiscase,oneoftwothingsmightoccur:
Scenario1(BoomTimes)
Assumetheyenhasdepreciatedto120,andthatthemortgagebond
portfoliohasappreciatedby20%.
TotalProceeds=InterestonBondPortfolio+ProceedsonSaleofBond
Portfolio
=$1,305,000+$10,440,000=$11,745,000
TotalOutflows=MarginLoan($7.83millionprincipal+5%interest)+
YenLoan(principal+0.50%interest)
=$8,221,500+100,500,000yen
=$8,221,500+$837,500=$9,059,000
OverallProfit=$2,686,000
ReturnonInvestment=$2,686,000/$870,000=310%
Scenario2(BoomTurnstoBust)
Assumetheyenhasappreciatedto100,andthatthemortgage
bondportfoliohasdepreciatedby20%.
TotalProceeds=InterestonBondPortfolio+ProceedsonSaleof
BondPortfolio
=$1,305,000+$6,960,000=$8,265,000
TotalOutflows=MarginLoan($7.83millionprincipal+5%
interest)+YenLoan(principal+0.50%interest)
=$8,221,500+100,500,000yen
=$8,221,500+$1,005,000=$9,226,500
OverallLoss=$961,500
ReturnonInvestment=$961,500/$870,000=110%
11
12
(S
t
, S
t+1
, S
t+2
, , S
1
) , unde:
`
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
=
1
I - t + 1
S
1
=t
2
= __S
1
=t
T-t+1
Determinai rezultatul su la scaden.
B. tranzacioneaz o opiune barier de tip knock, avnd preul de exerciiu
1,5096, scadena un an, dimensiunea contractului 1.345.000 EUR.
Se cere:
a) Se justific alegerea unei opiuni de tip down-and-out? Dac da, determinai
rezultatul la scaden.
b) Dac Apple alege o opiune de tip down-and-in, pentru o barier 1 EUR=1,2639
USD, i prima de 0,0061, ct este rezultatul su la scaden? Ar fi mai avantajoas
aceast alternativ comparativ cu opiunea asiatic?
14
>
< <
<
=
2 2
2 1
1 1
,
, 0
,
PE S S PE
PE S PE
PE S PE S
S f
T T
T
T T
T
S se determine:
a. Opiunile ce compun acest payoff;
b. Dac valoarea unui contract este de 10.000 de GBP, PE1 este 1 GBP =
15,2213 CNY, cu prima aferent de 0,01, i PE2 este 1 GBP = 15,2350 CNY, cu
prima de 0,007, s se reprezinte grafic strategia i s se determine: i. intervalul n
care speculatorul ctig, respectiv pierderea maxim, ii. rezultatul speculatorului
dac la scaden cursul spot, S
T
= 15,1545 CNY/GBP.
26. Un speculator anticipeaza o crestere a cursului de schimb si isi propune sa
creeze o strategie cu cost minim folosind 2 opiuni call cu preuri de exercitare
diferite care sa-i asigure un castig cand cursul creste. Sa se reprezinte grafic o astfel
de strategie.
27. Presupunem c firma A din Germania necesit un mprumut de 1.000.000
GBP pe 2 ani, iar compania B din Marea Britanie necesit un mprumut de
1.500.000 EUR pe 2 ani. Ratele de dobnd de pe pieele monetare aferente celor
dou companii pemtru creditele n lire i euro sunt:
Rata de dobnd la GBP Rata de dobnd la EUR
A (DE) 6,5% 6%
B (UK) 4% 5,5%
1.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.55
1.6
1.65
EUR/USD
S
T
=1,4458
Bariera=1,2639
15
Cursul spot GBP/EUR n prezent este 1,5. Cele dou companii decid s ncheie un
contract swap, prin intermediul bncii Barclays.
I. Rspundei la urmtoarele ntrebri:
a) Care sunt condiiile pe care Barclays le urmrete pentru a perfecta o
tranzacie swap ntre cele dou companii?
b) Ce nelegei prin avantaj (ctig) comparativ net i cum este distribuit
acesta?
c) Din ce motiv ar plti o dobnd mai ridicat compania A, dac se
mprumut n euro de pe piaa naional?
d) Un contract swap reprezint un produs al pieei OTC. Care este principalul
risc ce deriv din ncheierea contractului swap? Cine i asum acest risc?
e) Care sunt avantajele realizrii unui contract swap?
f) Prin contractul swap companiile A i B realizeaz o operaiune de hedging a
riscului valutar? Dar Barclays?
II. Barclays distribuie avantajul comparativ net astfel: compania A - 40%,
compania B - 40%, dealerul 20%.
a) Explicai pe baza schemei de mai jos modul de realizare a tranzaciei swap;
b) Ct este rata dobnzii aferent mprumutului realizat de compania A? Dar
pentru B?
c) Ct este ctigul dealer-ului?
d) Compania B previzioneaz o volatilitate ridicat a cursului de schimb n cel
de-al doilea an aferent contractului swap. n acest scop, utilizeaz contracte
forward, pe care le ncheie cu HSBC Bank Plc, avnd preul la termen 1,5628. Dac
la scadena contractului forward, cursul spot GBP/USD este 1,4919, a fost acoperit
riscul valutar?
6
%
Dealer
(Barclays)
CompaniaA
(DE)
CompaniaB
(UK)
BancaX
(DE)
BancaY
(UK)
1
.
5
0
0
.
0
0
0
1.500.000 1.500.000
1
.
0
0
0
.
0
0
0
1.000.000
1.000.000
6%
?% 4%
?%
4
%
16
28. Compania Microsoft (SUA) dorete s se mprumute 1.000.000 EUR la o
rat de dobnd fix pe 3 ani, iar Nokia (Finlanda) dorete s se mprumute
1.470.000 USD la o rat de dobnd fix pe 3 ani. Ratele de dobnd la care se pot
mprumuta cele dou companii sunt:
Rata de dobnd la USD Rata de dobnd la EUR
Microsoft (US) 5% 6,5%
Nokia (EU) 7% 6%
Cele dou companii decid s ncheie un contract swap valutar pe 3 ani adresndu-se
unei bnci-dealer, respectiv Citibank (SUA). Citibank distribuie ctigul comparativ
net astfel: Microsoft 30%, Nokia 40%. Cursul spot iniial este 1 EUR = 1,47 USD. S
se determine:
a) Ctigul comparativ net i costul mprumuturilor suportate de Microsoft i
Nokia (schema de realizare a contractului swap);
b) Care este rezultatul lui Microsoft, Nokia i Citibank n fiecare an;
c) Pentru a se acoperi la fluctuaia cursului EUR/USD, Microsoft utilizeaz
opiuni plain vanilla, avnd preul de exerciiu 1,4956 i prima 0,018 USD pentru
un EUR. S se discute eficiena hedging-ului cu opiuni, tiind c dolarul se
depreciaz n fiecare an timp de 3 ani cu 1,2%.
29. Compania Tissot (Elveia) dorete s se mprumute 1.000.000 EUR la o
rat de dobnd variabil pe 4 ani, iar compania Orange (Frana) dorete s se
mprumute 1.635.000 CHF la o rat de dobnd fix pe 4. Ratele de dobnd la care
se pot mprumuta cele dou companii sunt:
Rata de dobnd la CHF Rata de dobnd la
EUR
Tissot (CH) 7,45% EURIBOR+1,74%
Orange (EU) 8,13% EURIBOR+0,62%
Cele dou companii decid s ncheie un contract swap valutar pe 4 ani adresndu-se
unei bnci-dealer, respectiv Socit Gnrale (Frana). Socit Gnrale distribuie
ctigul comparativ net astfel: Tissot 35%, Orange 45%. Cursul spot iniial este 1
EUR = 1,635 CHF. S se determine:
a) Ctigul comparativ net, costul mprumuturilor suportate de Tissot i
Orange (schema de realizare a contractului swap) i ctigul dealerului;
b) Care este rezultatul lui Tissot i Orange n fiecare an (EURIBOR
t+1
=3,23%,
EURIBOR
t+2
=3,46%, EURIBOR
t+3
=3,10%, EURIBOR
t+4
=3,06%, unde t+i reprezint
sfritul anului i), att n sum absolut ct i n termeni procentuali;
c) Dac euro se depreciaz n fiecare an timp de doi ani cu 0,56%, care va fi
rezultatul nregistrat de Socit Gnrale n cel de-al doilea an?
17
ANEXA1.SpecificaiilecontractuluifuturespecursulEUR/RONlaBursade
ValoriBucureti
1
18
19
20
SpecificatieClassicalPivotPoints:S1,S2,S3,R1,R2,R3
pi vot = ( Hi gh + Low + Cl ose) / 3
S1 = ( 2 * pi vot ) - Hi gh
R1 = ( 2 * pi vot ) - Low
S2 = pi vot - ( R1 - S1)
R2 = pi vot + ( R1 - S1)
S3 = Low - 2 * ( Hi gh - pi vot )
R3 = Hi gh + 2 * ( pi vot - Low)