Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2013
Contents
1.Introducere .......................................................................................................................................... 3
2. Analiza statistic a unei serii de date nregistrate la un moment dat ................................................ 4
2.1. Alegerea variabilelor statistice..................................................................................................... 5
2.2. Analiza statistic univariat a variabilelor statistice .................................................................... 6
2.2.1. Analiza statistic univariat a variabilei cantitative .............................................................. 6
2.2.2. Analiza statistic univariat a variabilei calitative ................................................................ 8
2.3. Analiza statistic bivariat a variabilelor statistice ...................................................................... 9
2.3.1. Analiza statistic bivariat pentru o variabil cantitativ i o variabil calitativ ................ 9
2.4. Estimarea prin interval de ncredere a mediei i a proporiei ................................................... 12
2.5. Testarea statistic ...................................................................................................................... 14
2.5.1. Testarea ipotezelor asupra unui eantion .......................................................................... 14
3. Analiza statistic descriptiv a unei serii de timp ............................................................................. 16
3.1. Alegerea variabilei statistice ...................................................................................................... 16
3.2. Analiza statistic folosind indici statistici simpli ........................................................................ 16
3.2.1. Indici absolui ...................................................................................................................... 16
3.2.2. Indici relativi ........................................................................................................................ 17
3.2.3. Indici exprimai prin valori medii ........................................................................................ 18
4. Concluzii ............................................................................................................................................ 19
Bibliografie ............................................................................................................................................ 19
1.Introducere
Obiectivul specific al cercetrii : Analiza statistic a populaiei din rile
europene, i stabilirea existenei corelaiei dintre numrul populaiei unei ri i
rata de fertilitate a populaiei acesteia.ntr-un tabel Excel avem datele necesare
pentru 37 de ri europene.De asemenea aceleai date le avem i ntr-o baz de
date pentru SPSS Data Editor.Toate datele sunt pentru anul 2011.
GEO
population
fert_rate
11000638
1.813610
High
BG
7369431
1.508560
Low
CZ
10486731
1.426600
Low
DK
5560628
1.751690
High
DE
81751602
1.362740
Low
EE
1340194
1.515270
Low
IE
4570727
2.047640
High
EL
11309885
1.422690
Low
ES
46152926
1.358300
Low
FR
64994907
2.011350
High
FX
63088990
1.997270
High
IT
60626442
1.395060
Low
CY
839751
1.349640
Low
LV
2074605
1.336120
Low
LT
3052588
1.763790
High
LU
511840
1.522170
Low
HU
9985722
1.233220
Low
MT
415832
1.489380
Low
NL
16655799
1.758310
High
AT
8404252
1.423450
Low
PL
38529866
1.297270
Low
PT
10572157
1.351670
Low
RO
21413815
1.254080
Low
SI
2050189
1.561280
Low
SK
5392446
1.449430
Low
FI
5375276
1.826950
High
SE
9415570
1.901330
High
UK
62515392
1.963610
High
IS
318452
2.017040
High
LI
36149
1.687840
High
NO
4920305
1.880570
High
CH
7870134
1.517310
Low
ME
619872
1.649330
High
HR
4412137
1.397480
Low
MK
2057284
1.457530
Low
RS
BY
7276195
9481193
1.358260
1.514980
Low
Low
BE
r_fert_rate
GEO
BE
11000638
1.813610 High
DK
5560628
1.751690 High
EE
1340194
1.515270 Low
FR
64994907
2.011350 High
CY
839751
1.349640 Low
LU
511840
1.522170 Low
NL
16655799
1.758310 High
AT
8404252
1.423450 Low
RO
21413815
1.254080 Low
SI
2050189
1.561280 Low
UK
62515392
1.963610 High
IS
318452
2.017040 High
NO
4920305
1.880570 High
ME
619872
1.649330 High
MK
2057284
1.457530 Low
RS
7276195
1.358260 Low
BY
9481193
1.514980 Low
Valid
Missing
Mean
17
0
12938865.06
Median
5560628.00
Mode
318452(a)
40148334547
6432.400
2.207
Variance
Skewness
Std. Error of Skewness
.550
Kurtosis
3.992
1.063
Minimum
318452
Maximum
64994907
Percentiles
25
1089972.50
50
5560628.00
75
13828218.50
70,000,000
4
11
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
value
Histogram
12
10
Frequency
2
Mean = 12938865.06
Std. Dev. =
20037049.321
N = 17
0
0
value
Am obinut :
Rata relativa a fertilitatii(fata de UE)
Frequency
Valid
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative
Percent
High
47.1
47.1
47.1
Low
52.9
52.9
100.0
Total
17
100.0
100.0
High
Low
47,1 % din rile din eantion au o rat a fertilitii mai mare dect valoarea
medie a UE. 52,9 % din rile din eantion au o rat a fertilitii mai mic dect
valoarea medie a UE.Pentru o variabil calitativ nu se pot calcula indicatori ai
asimetriei i boltirii, i nici media, mediana.
8
Interval by Interval
Pearson's R
Ordinal by Ordinal
Spearman Correlation
Value
.382
Asymp.
Std.
Error(a)
.155
Approx.
T(b)
1.603
Approx. Sig.
.130(c)
.217
.250
.859
.404(c)
N of Valid Cases
17
a Not assuming the null hypothesis.
b Using the asymptotic standard error assuming the null hypothesis.
c Based on normal approximation.
17
Missing
Percent
100.0%
N
0
Total
Percent
.0%
N
17
Percent
100.0%
Total
High
Total
318452
511840
619872
839751
1340194
2050189
2057284
4920305
5560628
7276195
8404252
9481193
11000638
16655799
21413815
62515392
64994907
17
10
value
r_fert_n
Low
Statistic
Mean
95% Confidence Interval
for Mean
Std. Error
5,930,523.67
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
2,256,712.009
726,536.44
11,134,510.89
5% Trimmed Mean
5,371,378.80
Median
2,057,284.00
Variance
45,834,741,818,072.000
Std. Deviation
6,770,136.027
Minimum
511,840
Maximum
21,413,815
Range
20,901,975
Interquartile Range
High
7,852,750
Skewness
1.694
0.717
Kurtosis
3.091
1.400
20,823,249.13
9,559,677.085
Mean
95% Confidence Interval
for Mean
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
-1,781,795.15
43,428,293.40
5% Trimmed Mean
19,508,423.53
Median
Variance
Std. Deviation
8,280,633.00
731,099,407,804,764.000
27,038,849.972
Minimum
318,452
Maximum
64,994,907
Range
64,676,455
Interquartile Range
49,355,514
Skewness
Kurtosis
1.283
0.752
-0.218
1.481
11
70000000
60000000
50000000
value
40000000
30000000
9
20000000
10000000
Low
High
r_fert_n
12
value
Mean
95% Confidence Interval for Mean
Statistic
12,938,865.06
Lower
Bound
2,636,764.92
Upper
Bound
23,240,965.20
5% Trimmed Mean
Median
Variance
Std. Deviation
Minimum
Maximum
Range
Interquartile Range
Skewness
Kurtosis
Std. Error
4,859,698.281
10,747,996.79
5,560,628.00
401,483,345,476,432.000
20,037,049.321
318,452
64,994,907
64,676,455
12,738,246
2.207
3.992
0.550
1.063
Percent
Valid Percent
Cumulative
Percent
High
47.1
47.1
47.1
Low
52.9
52.9
100.0
Total
17
100.0
100.0
i Lsuperioara = f +2,12*
13
N
value
Mean
12938865.
17
06
One-Sample Test
Std. Deviation
20037049.321
Std. Error
Mean
4859698.2
81
2.662
df
Sig. (2-tailed)
16
.017
Mean
Difference
12938855.0
59
Lower
2636754.9
2
Upper
23240955.
20
14
Se obine :
15
Population of UE
502,467,790
502,369,211
501,084,516
499,686,575
497,686,132
495,291,925
493,210,397
i/0
9,257,393
9,158,814
7,874,119
6,476,178
4,475,735
2,081,528
16
Anul
Ritmul de variaie
2012
101.88%
2011
101.86%
2010
101.60%
2009
101.31%
2008
100.91%
2007
100.42%
Anul
Ritmul de variaie
2012
100.02%
2011
100.26%
2010
100.28%
2009
100.40%
2008
100.48%
2007
100.42%
17
Perioada
Ritmul sporului
2012
1.8770%
2011
1.8570%
2010
1.5965%
2009
1.3131%
2008
0.9075%
2007
0.4220%
a)Sporul mediu
= 9257393/6 = 1542898.833
18
4. Concluzii
Deci,n urma analizei efectuate, am observat c populaia UE are un spor pozitiv
al populaiei i crete cu 1542898.833 oameni/an.Aceast cretere se datoreaz
sratei ridicate a fertilitii din unele state ale UE. Se observ c statele care au o
rat mare a fertilitii au o populaie n medie de aprox.20 milioane de locuitori,
iar cele cu o rat mic a fertilitii(Sub media UE) au o populaie medie de
aprox. 6 milioane de locuitori.Astfel se poate afirma c populaia UE este destul
de eterogen, prin faptul c include diferite ri cu o populaie diferit,nsoit
cu un ritm/spor de cretere diferit .
Bibliografie
Andrei, T., Statistic i econometrie, Ed. Economic, 2003.
Brbat, A., Teoria statisticii sociale, Editura Didactic i Pedagogic, Bucureti,
1972.
Baron T. et al., Statistic teoretic i economic, EDP, Bucureti, 1996.
Biji, E.M., Lilea, E., Roca, E., Vtui, M., Statistic aplicat n economie,
Editura Universal Dalsi, 2000
Isaic-Maniu, Al., et. al., Statistica pentru managementul afacerilor, Ed.
Economic, 1999.
Jaba, E., Statistica, ed. a 3-a, Ed. Economic, Bucureti, 2002.
19
Jaba, E., Pintilescu, C. Statistic. Teste gril i probleme, ed. a 2-a, Editura
Sedcom Libris, Iai, 2007
James T.McClave, P. George Benson, Terry Sincich, Statistics for Business and
Economics, Pearson, Education New Jersey , 2008
arc, M., Tratat de statistic aplicat, Editura Didactic i Pedagogic,
Bucureti, 1998.
Wonnacott, H., Wonnacott, T., Statistiques, Economica, Paris, 1991.
Sursa date :
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
http://www.biblioteca-digitala.ase.ro/biblioteca/carte2.asp?id=116&idb=
http://www.biblioteca-digitala.ase.ro/biblioteca/carte2.asp?id=55&idb
20