Question 5.31 f(x,t) is the probability of getting x successes during a time interval of length t.

Condition I: The probability of a success during a very small time interval from t to t+t is t. Condition II: The probability of more than one success during such a time interval is negligible. Condition III: The probability of a success during such a time interval does not depend on what happened prior to time t. Show that under these conditions: f(x,t+t)=f(x,t)[1-t]+f(x-1,t)t and hence that d(f (x,t)) =(f(x-1,t)-f(x,t)) dt Solution Due to condition II the probability of more than one hit in the small period of length t is negligible. So, either A or B occurs A: x hits in the rst period of length t and no hit in the small period of length t B: x-1 hits in the rst period of length t and 1 hit in the small period of length t So, f(x,t+t)=P(AB)=P(A)+P(B) Since A and B cannot happen simultaneously, they are disjoint. The rst interval (t) and the second interval (t) do not overlap. By condition III the number of hits in these two periods are independent: P(A)=f(x,t)f(0,t) P(B)=f(x-1,t)f(1,t) So, using condition I, f(x,t+t)=P(A)+P(B) f(x,t+t)=f(x,t)f(0,t)+f(x-1,t)f(1,t) f(x,t+t)=f(x,t)(1-t+f(x-1,t) f(x,t+t)=f(x,t)-t*f(x,t)+t*f(x-1,t) f(x,t+t)=f(x,t)+t*f(x-1,t)-t*f(x,t) f(x,t+t)=f(x,t)+t(f(x-1,t)-f(x,t)) f(x,t+t)-f(x,t)=t(f(x-1,t)-f(x,t)) )f (x,t) Hence, f (x,t+ut =t(f(x-1,t)-f(x,t)) with u= ut In particular for t0, we nd: d(f (x,t)) =(f(x-1,t)-f(x,t)) dt Question 5.33 Derive the formulas for the mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution by rst evaluating E(X) and E[X(X-1)]. Solution Poisson distribution: x v e p(x;v)= v x ! with v= I could not nd the correct answer for this question 2

Question 5.69 Among the 300 employees of a company, 240 are union members, whereas the others are not. If six of the employees are chosen by lot to serve on a committee that administers the pension fund, nd the probability that four of the six will be union members using (a) The formula for the hypergeometric distribution;

(b) The binomial distribution as an approximation.

1 M2 Solution (a) f(x1 ,x2 ,...,xk ;n,M1 ,M2 ,...,Mk )=( M x1 * x2 *...* 60 240 300 1770134810340 f(2,4;6,60,240)=( 2 * 4 )/( 6 )= 962822846700 =0.2478 Mk xk

)/(

N n

x n x Solution (b) b(x;n,t)= n x t (1 t) with t= =5/6 (=240/300) ,x=4 and n=6 4 2 b(x;n,t)= 6 4 (5/6) (1/6) = 15 0.482253086 (1/25) = 0.2894

Question 5.73 It is known from experience that 1.4 percent of the calls received by a switchboard are wrong numbers. Use the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution to determine the probability that among 150 calls received by the switchboard two are wrong numbers. Solution Poisson distribution: x v e p(x;v)= v x ! with v= =n n=150, the probability of receiving a wrong number is =0.014. n==150*0.014=2.1 2 e 2 . 1 p(2;2.1)= 2.1 = 4.410.122456428 = 0.540032849 =0.2700 2! 2 2 Question 5.74 Records show that the probability is 0.0012 that a person will get food poisoning spending a day at a certain state fair. Use the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution to nd the probability that among 1,000 persons attending the fair at most two will get food poisoning. Solution Poisson distribution: x v e p(x;v)= v x ! with v= =n n==1,000*0.0012=1.2 Probability of at most 2 is denoted by: P(x2,)=P(0)+P(1)+P(2) P(0;1.2)=0 e1.2 = 1 e1.2 = e1.2 P(1;1.2)=1 e1.2 = 1.21 e1.2 = 1.2 e1.2 = 1.2e1.2 2 e 1 . 2 e 1 . 2 P(2;1.2)= 1.2 = 1.442 =0.72e1.2 2! P(x2,)=P(0)+P(1)+P(2)=e1.2 + 1.2e1.2 + 0.72e1.2 = 2.92e1.2 = 0.8795

Question 5.78 The number of monthly breakdowns of a computer is a random variable having a Poisson distribution with =1.8. Use the formula for the Poisson distribution to nd the probabilities that this computer will function (a) Without a breakdown;

(b) With only one breakdown. Solution (a) Poisson distribution: x v e p(x;v)= v x ! with v= =n The probability that the computer will function without a breakdown is dened by: P(x=0,)=P(0,1.8)=e1.8 = 0.1653 Solution (b) Poisson distribution: x v e p(x;v)= v x ! with v= =n The probability that the computer will function with only one breakdown is dened by: P(x=1,)=P(1,1.8)=1.8e1.8 = 0.2975 Question 5.80 In a certain desert region the number of persons who become seriously ill each year from eating a certain poisonous plant is a random variable having a Poisson distribution with =5.2. Use Table II to nd the probabilities of (a) Three such illnesses in a given year;

(b) At least 10 such illnesses in a given year; (c) Anywhere from four to six such illnesses in a given year.

Solution (a) Poisson distribution: x v e P(x;v)= v x ! with v= =n 3 5 .2 e e 5 . 2 P(x;)=P(3;5.2)= 5.2 3! = 140.608 =0.1293 6 Solution (b) Poisson distribution: x v e P(x;v)= v x ! with v= =n P(x10,)=P(10)+P(11)+P(12)+P(13)+P(14)+P(15)+P(16)+P(17) P(10)=0.0220, P(11)=0.0104, P(12)=0.0045, P(13)=0.0018, P(14)=0.0007, P(15)=0.0002, P(16)=0.0001 and P(17)=0.0000. P(x10,)=P(10)+P(11)+P(12)+P(13)+P(14)+P(15)+P(16)+P(17) P(x10,)=0.0220+0.0104+0.0045+0.0018+0.0007+0.0002+0.0001+0.000 P(x10,)=0.0397 4

Solution (c) Poisson distribution: x v e P(x;v)= v x ! with v= =n P(4x6,)=P(4)+P(5)+P(6) P(4)=0.1681, P(5)=0.1748 and P(6)=0.1515 P(4x6,)=P(4)+P(5)+P(6)=0.1681+0.1748+0.1515=0.4944 Question 5.81 In the inspection of a fabric produced in continuous rolls, the number of imperfections per yard is a random variable having the Poisson distribution with =0.25. Find the probability that 2 yards of the fabric will have at most one imperfection using (a) Table II;

(b) The computer printout of Figure 5.5. Solution (a) When n=1, =0.25. So when n=2, =0.5. P(x 1;)=P(0;)+P(1;)=0.6065+0.3033=0.9098 Solution (b) When n=1, =0.25. So when n=2, =0.5. P(x 1; 0.5) = 0.9098 Question 5.83 The probabilities are 0.40, 0.50, and 0.10 that, in city driving, a certain kind of compact car will average less than 22 miles per gallon, from 22 to 26 miles per gallon, or more than 26 miles per gallon. Find the probability that among 10 such cars tested, three will average less than 22 miles per gallon, six will average from 22 to 26 miles per gallon, and one will average more than 26 miles per gallon.
x x x Solution f(x1 ,x2 ,...,xk ;n,1 ,2 ,...,k )= x1,x2n ,...,xk * 1 1 * 2 2 *...* k k 3 6 f(3,6,1;10,0.4,0.5,0.1)= 3!10! 1!6! *(0.4) (0.5) (0.1) = 0.0840

Question 5.86 If 18 defective glass bricks include 10 that have cracks but no discoloration, 5 that have discoloration but no cracks, and three that have cracks and discoloration, what is the probability that among six of the bricks (chosen at random for further checks) three will have cracks but no discoloration, one will have discoloration but no cracks, and two will have cracks and discoloration?
1 M2 Mk Solution f(x1 ,x2 ,...,xk ;n,M1 ,M2 ,...,Mk )=( M x1 * x2 *...* xk )/( 5 3 18 12053 1800 f(3,1,2;6,10,5,3)=( 10 3 * 1 * 2 )/( 6 )= 18564 = 18564 =0.09696 N n

Question 5.88 A sampling inspection program has a 0.10 probability of rejecting a lot when the true proportion of defectives is 0.01, and a 0.95 probability of rejecting the lot when the true proportion of defectives is 0.03. If 0.01 is the AQL and 0.03 is the LTPD, what are producers and consumers risks? Solution I could not nd the correct answer for this question