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Sales
a
EBITDA
Depreciation
Operating Profit
Net Income
FY 2000
22,500
2,500
1,100
1,400
660
No. Of Stores
Increase in Annual Growth Revenue
Free Cash Flow Growth
Upfront Investment Required
30
10% Over 5yrs
5%
1.5 million
Exhibit 2 Projections of Incremental Expected Sales and Cash Flows for Home Delivery
Project 2002-2006 (in thousands of dollars).
Sales
EBITDa
Depreciation
EBIT
Tax Expense
a
EBIAT
CAPXb
Investment in Working Capital
2002E
1,200
2003E
2,400
2004E
3,900
2005E
5,600
2006E
7,500
180
(200)
(20)
8
(12)
360
(225)
135
(54)
81
585
(250)
335
(134)
201
840
(275)
565
(226)
339
1,125
(300)
825
(330)
495
300
0
300
0
300
0
300
0
300
0
EBITD is the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and Depreciation. EBIAT is the Earnings Before Interest and After
Taxes. Taxes calculated assuming no interest expense.
b
Annual capital expenditures of $300,000 were in addition to the initial $1.5 million outlay, and are assumed to
remain constant in perpetuity.
5.0%
6.8%
7.2%
40%
0.25
1.50
1.5
5%
5%
7.20%
15.80%
1500
6.80%
0.25
Exhibit 2
Years
Initial Investment
Sales
EBITDa
Depreciation
EBIT
Tax Expense
EBIATa
2
2003E
3
2004E
4
2005E
1,200
180
(200)
(20)
8
(12)
2,400
360
(225)
135
(54)
81
3,900
585
(250)
335
(134)
201
5,600
840
(275)
565
(226)
339
300
0
300
0
300
0
300
0
(112)
0.86
-96.72
6
0.75
4.47
151
0.64
97.24
314
0.56
174.62
(1500)
CAPXb
Investment in Working
Capital
Free Cash Flow
Discount Factor
Present Value
1
2002E
1.00
-1500
14.49% DF @ 14.49%
PV
2728.49
1228.49
1228.49
Target D/E
Target D/V
New Equity Beta
New Equity Return
5
2006E
0.33
0.25
1.80
17.94%
5
Terminal Value
7,500
1,125
(300)
825
(330)
495
300
0
495
0.48
237.72
4812.50
0.48
2311.15
0.508349292
251.6328996
0.508349292
2784.136402
Asset Beta
Cash Flow Growth rate
Risk Free Rate of Return
Market Risk Premium
Cost Of Equity
Initial Investment
Cost of Debt
Project Debt Beta (d)
Additional Debt
Debt
Cost of Debt
Interest Paid
Tax
Tax Benefit
Debt Tax Shield
Present Value of Firm
1.5
5%
5%
7.20%
15.80%
1500
6.80%
0.25
750
750
6.80%
51
40%
20.40
300
1528.49
20.4
20.4
300
5%
40%
1.5
0.25
6.80%
5%
7.20%
25%
75%
1.92
18.80%
15.12%
5%
40%
1.5
0.25
6.80%
5%
7.20%
50%
50%
1.83
18.20%
11.14%
Years
Initial Investment
Sales
EBITDa
Depreciation
EBIT
Tax Expense
EBIATa
5%
40%
1.5
0.25
6.80%
5%
7.20%
75%
25%
1.75
17.60%
7.46%
1
2002E
2
2003E
1,200
180
(200)
(20)
8
(12)
2,400
360
(225)
135
(54)
81
300
0
300
0
(1500)
CAPXb
Investment in Working
Capital
(112)
1.000
-1500.00
0.869
-97.290
0.755
4.53
1.000
-1500.00
0.900
-100.77
0.810
4.86
1.000
-1500.00
0.931
-104.225
0.866
5.20
25% Debt
NPV Case - 1
NPV Case - 2
NPV Case - 3
50% Debt
1469.97
3116.52
2040.53
4003.79
2687.67
5010.91
75% Debt
9379.56
11471.49
13847.90
3
2004E
4
2005E
5
2006E
3,900
585
(250)
335
(134)
201
5,600
840
(275)
565
(226)
339
7,500
1,125
(300)
825
(330)
495
300
0
300
0
300
0
151
314
495
5
Terminal Value
(25% Debt)
5135.87
5
Terminal Value
(50% Debt)
8464.98
5
Terminal Value
(75% Debt)
21128.05
0.655
98.97
0.569
178.78
0.495
244.82
0.495
2540.15
0.495
4186.70
0.495
10449.74
0.728
109.99
0.655
205.80
0.590
291.91
0.590
3028.74
0.590
4992.00
0.590
12459.70
0.806
121.68
0.750
235.47
0.698
345.44
0.698
3584.10
0.698
5907.34
0.698
14744.34