Forecast Ingredients: 12th

Yesterdays satellite IR 10.8 at 1245Z and 1545Z images respectively

Mar, 2014

Satellite MSG image at 0745Z

MSLP
Yesterday analysis and expected MSLP today at 12Z

Tomorrow MSLP

Surface Winds (850hpa) Left and right panels for Today and Tomorrow respectively

Medium level Winds (700Hpa) Left and right panels for Today and Tomorrow respectively

Upper level Winds (300hpa) Left and right panels for Today and Tomorrow respectively

700hpa Relative humidity today 12Z and 18Z on Left and right panels respectively

700hpa Relative humidity tomorrow 12Z and 18Z on Left and right panels respectively

Convergence today at 1200z Left and right panels for lower and upper respectively

Convergence tomorrow at 1200z Left and right panels for lower and upper respectively

Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) as at 1200z Left and right panels for Today and Tomorrow respectively

GFS; Today and Tomorrow

AFRICA LAM DAY 1

AFRICA LAM DAY 2

ECMWF; PPT EFI

ECMWF; Wind EFI

Summary of the forecast

General synoptic systems The ridging from the north over the Mediterranean region coupled with the ridging from St. Helena will influence the shift of the meridional arm of the ITCZ towards the region which will improve wet weather activities over the western parts of region. Much of the meridional arm of the ITCZ is over the western sector of SWFDP region.

Convergence is observed at the 850mb level over the lake basin region, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Ethiopia today and tomorrow. Medium level (700mb) winds are mainly easterlies today and tomorrow. The upper level (300mb) winds have mainly strong easterlies today and tomorrow hence steering systems westwards. There is considerable moisture content over much of the region today and tomorrow. High Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is observed over most of the region today and tomorrow. There are signals of moderate precipitation over western Ethiopia , south Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda and Burundi today and tomorrow.

Risk Probability Table 12th March, 2014

COUNTRY No BURUNDI KENYA RWANDA TANZANIA UGANDA ETHIOPIA SW N X X Coast& W X X X X X X HEAVY RAIN RISK Low X Medium High No X NW X E STRONG WINDS RISK Low Medium High No X E LARGE WAVES RISK Low Medium High

S SUDAN

Risk Probability Table 13th March, 2014

COUNTRY No HEAVY RAIN RISK Low Medium STRONG WINDS RISK Low Medium LARGE WAVES RISK Low Medium

High

No

High

No

High

BURUNDI
KENYA RWANDA TANZANIA UGANDA ETHIOPIA S SUDAN

N
W X SW & C W &E C S

X
X X X X X X

X
E X E X X X