Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
PRESENTADO POR:
JAIRO RUALES YELA
COD: 1.086.132.835
TUTOR:
OSCAR JAVIER HERNANDEZ
demanda
periodo
80
70
195
175
130
120
Periodos estacionales
alfa
beta
gama
demanda
0.1
0.1
0.1
135
Ao 1
Promedio primer ao D1
Ao 2
Promedio primer ao D1 = Dm
12
Luego
PERIODO
DEMANDA
ESTIMACIN
INDICE
ESTACIONAL
Co
ESTIMACION
FACTOR
ESTACIONAL
PROMEDIO
ESTIMACIN
FACTOR
ESTACIONAL
NORMALIZADO
FACTOR
PROMEDIO
FACTOR
ESTACIONAL
PRONSTICO
ERROR
ECM
80
0,573705179
0,597197417
0,559431258
137,8002378
0,561543185
F(0+1)=
76,76640044
3,2336
10,4561661
195
1,444444444
1,52991453
1,433164287
138,1318587
1,431017319
F(1+1)=
198,2951631 -3,295163
10,8580998
130
0,995744681
1,075412447
1,007404455
138,511038
1,000519345
F(2+1)=
140,5962631 -10,59626
112,280791
70
0,620689655
138,0260502
0,55610393
F(3+1)=
78,34176422 -8,341764
69,5850303
175
1,615384615
136,9530011
1,415696649
F(4+1)=
198,3134626 -23,31346
543,51754
120
1,155080214
136,525599
0,988363015
F(5+1)=
138,4405589 -18,44056
340,054211
F(6+1)=
76,47205478
F(6+2)=
196,0772775
F(6+3)=
137,867437
SUMA
3,202524395
COEFICIENTE
0,936761014
3,00