CF90

545.0
535.1
523.7
551.3
551.9
553.4
570.2
614.6
624.2
679.5
599.4
566.6
574.0
598.6
658.1
701.5
669.8
677.2
660.3
669.5
710.4
731.7
782.2
14348.2
623.8

PIB90
805.8
837.1
886.6
940.2
939.5
961.9
969.6
964.8
908.8
857.9
746.8
681.0
691.3
718.2
769.3
799.5
750.7
714.8
706.1
720.7
761.7
799.1
838.3
18769.7

INV90
260.8
302.0
362.9
388.9
387.6
408.5
399.4
350.2
284.6
178.4
147.4
114.4
117.3
119.6
111.2
98.0
80.9
37.6
45.8
51.2
51.3
67.4
56.1
4421.5

816.1
203578.8

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.7456
R Square
0.5560
Adjusted R Square 0.5348
Standard Error
48.7421
Observations
23.0000

CF90 =F(INV90)

ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

df
1.0000
21.0000
22.0000

SS
62464.7177
49891.5544
112356.2722

Coefficients
698.6779
-0.3893

Standard Error
17.7860
0.0759

MS
62464.7177
2375.7883

>F(0,05;1;21)=4,32
F
Significance F
26.2922
0.0000

t Stat
P-value
39.2824
0.0000
-5.1276
0.0000
>t(0,05;21)=2,08

Lower 95%
661.6898
-0.5472

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y
1.0000
597.1425
2.0000
581.1023

Residuals
-52.1425
-46.0023

ui-1
-52.1425

ui2
2718.8359
2116.2162

(u i -u i-1) 2
37.7009

3.0000
4.0000
5.0000
6.0000
7.0000
8.0000
9.0000
10.0000
11.0000
12.0000
13.0000
14.0000
15.0000
16.0000
17.0000
18.0000
19.0000
20.0000
21.0000
22.0000
23.0000

557.3926
547.2702
547.7763
539.6394
543.1823
562.3370
587.8766
629.2227
641.2917
654.1393
653.0103
652.1149
655.3852
660.5242
667.1817
684.0394
680.8469
678.7446
678.7056
672.4375
676.8369
14348.2000

0<

-33.6926
4.0298
4.1237
13.7606
27.0177
52.2630
36.3234
50.2773
-41.8917
-87.5393
-79.0103
-53.5149
2.7148
40.9758
2.6183
-6.8394
-20.5469
-9.2446
31.6944
59.2625
105.3631
0.0000

d= 0.51

-46.0023
1135.1898
-33.6926
16.2395
4.0298
17.0049
4.1237
189.3528
13.7606
729.9568
27.0177
2731.4232
52.2630
1319.3915
36.3234
2527.8094
50.2773
1754.9135
-41.8917
7663.1374
-87.5393
6242.6292
-79.0103
2863.8411
-53.5149
7.3702
2.7148
1679.0125
40.9758
6.8557
2.6183
46.7768
-6.8394
422.1754
-20.5469
85.4619
-9.2446
1004.5331
31.6944
3512.0404
59.2625 11101.3872
49891.5544
<d1=1,26

151.5305
1422.9793
0.0088
92.8689
175.7523
637.3256
254.0705
194.7112
8495.1271
2083.7088
72.7445
650.0176
3161.7777
1463.8992
1471.2919
89.4478
187.8970
127.7430
1675.9962
760.0002
2125.2699
25331.8689

AUTOCORELATIE POZITIVA

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.8689
R Square
0.7549
Adjusted R Square 0.7433
Standard Error
48.7421
Observations
23.0000

PIB90=f(INV90)

ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

df
1.0000
21.0000
22.0000
Coefficients
698.6779
0.6107

SS
MS
153687.2099 153687.2099
49891.5544
2375.7883
203578.7643
Standard Error
17.7860
0.0759

>F(0,05;1;21)=4,32
F
Significance F
64.6889
0.0000

t Stat
P-value
39.2824
0.0000
8.0429
0.0000
>t(0,05;21)=2,08

Lower 95%
661.6898
0.4528

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y
1.0000
857.9425
2.0000
883.1023
3.0000
920.2926
4.0000
936.1702
5.0000
935.3763

Residuals
-52.1425
-46.0023
-33.6926
4.0298
4.1237

ui-1
-52.1425
-46.0023
-33.6926
4.0298

ui
2718.8359
2116.2162
1135.1898
16.2395
17.0049

(u i -u i-1)

37.7009
151.5305
1422.9793
0.0088

6.0000
7.0000
8.0000
9.0000
10.0000
11.0000
12.0000
13.0000
14.0000
15.0000
16.0000
17.0000
18.0000
19.0000
20.0000
21.0000
22.0000
23.0000

0<

948.1394
942.5823
912.5370
872.4766
807.6227
788.6917
768.5393
770.3103
771.7149
766.5852
758.5242
748.0817
721.6394
726.6469
729.9446
730.0056
739.8375
732.9369

13.7606
27.0177
52.2630
36.3234
50.2773
-41.8917
-87.5393
-79.0103
-53.5149
2.7148
40.9758
2.6183
-6.8394
-20.5469
-9.2446
31.6944
59.2625
105.3631

d= 0.51

4.1237
189.3528
13.7606
729.9568
27.0177
2731.4232
52.2630
1319.3915
36.3234
2527.8094
50.2773
1754.9135
-41.8917
7663.1374
-87.5393
6242.6292
-79.0103
2863.8411
-53.5149
7.3702
2.7148
1679.0125
40.9758
6.8557
2.6183
46.7768
-6.8394
422.1754
-20.5469
85.4619
-9.2446
1004.5331
31.6944
3512.0404
59.2625 11101.3872
49891.5544
<d1=1,26

92.8689
175.7523
637.3256
254.0705
194.7112
8495.1271
2083.7088
72.7445
650.0176
3161.7777
1463.8992
1471.2919
89.4478
187.8970
127.7430
1675.9962
760.0002
2125.2699
25331.8689

AUTOCORELATIE POZITIVA

a= 1144.1039
b= -0.6375
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

0<
6370.6631

CF90 EST ui
630.3847
610.4301
578.8725
544.7011
545.1473
530.8667
525.9578
529.0179
564.7194
597.1695
667.9988
709.9480
703.3815
686.2320
653.6544
634.4011
665.5124
688.3996
693.9461
684.6382
658.4996
634.6561
609.6651
14348.2
d= 0.51
79.8164

ui-1
-85.4
-75.3
-55.2
6.6
6.8
22.5
44.2
85.6
59.5
82.3
-68.6
-143.3
-129.4
-87.6
4.4
67.1
4.3
-11.2
-33.6
-15.1
51.9
97.0
172.5
0

-85.4
-75.3
-55.2
6.6
6.8
22.5
44.2
85.6
59.5
82.3
-68.6
-143.3
-129.4
-87.6
4.4
67.1
4.3
-11.2
-33.6
-15.1
51.9
97.0

<d1=1,26

ui2
7290.5434
5674.6219
3044.0052
43.5460
45.5986
507.7484
1957.3750
7324.2961
3537.9411
6778.3069
4705.7908
20548.6601
16739.5754
7679.3739
19.7633
4502.2626
18.3834
125.4317
1132.0609
229.1657
2693.6499
9417.5168
29768.3076
133783.9245

(u i -u i-1) 2
101.0948
406.3281
3815.7112
0.0236
249.0274
471.2788
1708.9849
681.2887
522.1170
22779.6357
5587.4536
195.0639
1743.0186
8478.2891
3925.4376
3945.2611
239.8539
503.8447
342.5421
4494.1744
2037.9362
5698.8994
67927.2649

AUTOCORELATIE POZITIVA

145.3191
0.1769

7.8730 >t(0,05;21)=2,08
0.001 <t(0,05;21)=2,08

; t a 0 a 1 Vt 1144 ,1039 0 , 6375 Vt

C
sa
s a 0
145 ,3191

12.9881 >F(0,05;1;21)=4,32

216526.5942
0.382

12.9881 >F(0,05;1;21)=4,32

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.7456
R Square
0.5560
Adjusted R Square 0.5348
Standard Error
48.7421
Observations
23.0000

CF90=f(PIB90EST)

ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

df
1.0000
21.0000
22.0000

SS
62464.7177
49891.5544
112356.2722

Coefficients
1144.1039
-0.6375

Standard Error
101.9723
0.1243

>F(0,05;1;21)=4,32
MS
F
Significance F
62464.7177
26.2922
0.0000
2375.7883

t Stat
P-value
11.2197
0.0000
-5.1276
0.0000
>t(0,05;21)=2,08

Lower 95%
932.0408
-0.8961

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y
1.0000
597.1425
2.0000
581.1023
3.0000
557.3926
4.0000
547.2702
5.0000
547.7763
6.0000
539.6394
7.0000
543.1823
8.0000
562.3370
9.0000
587.8766
10.0000
629.2227
11.0000
641.2917
12.0000
654.1393
13.0000
653.0103
14.0000
652.1149
15.0000
655.3852
16.0000
660.5242
17.0000
667.1817
18.0000
684.0394
19.0000
680.8469
20.0000
678.7446

Residuals
-52.1425
-46.0023
-33.6926
4.0298
4.1237
13.7606
27.0177
52.2630
36.3234
50.2773
-41.8917
-87.5393
-79.0103
-53.5149
2.7148
40.9758
2.6183
-6.8394
-20.5469
-9.2446

ui-1
-52.1425
-46.0023
-33.6926
4.0298
4.1237
13.7606
27.0177
52.2630
36.3234
50.2773
-41.8917
-87.5393
-79.0103
-53.5149
2.7148
40.9758
2.6183
-6.8394
-20.5469

ui2
2718.8359
2116.2162
1135.1898
16.2395
17.0049
189.3528
729.9568
2731.4232
1319.3915
2527.8094
1754.9135
7663.1374
6242.6292
2863.8411
7.3702
1679.0125
6.8557
46.7768
422.1754
85.4619

(u i -u i-1) 2
37.7009
151.5305
1422.9793
0.0088
92.8689
175.7523
637.3256
254.0705
194.7112
8495.1271
2083.7088
72.7445
650.0176
3161.7777
1463.8992
1471.2919
89.4478
187.8970
127.7430

21.0000
22.0000
23.0000

0<

678.7056
672.4375
676.8369

d= 0.51

31.6944
59.2625
105.3631

-9.2446
1004.5331
31.6944
3512.0404
59.2625 11101.3872
49891.5544
<d1=1,26

1675.9962
760.0002
2125.2699
25331.8689

AUTOCORELATIE POZITIVA

Upper 95% Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%
735.6660 661.6898 735.6660
-0.2314
-0.5472
-0.2314

Upper 95% Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%
735.6660 661.6898 735.6660
0.7686
0.4528
0.7686

42.90113941
179.685887
2021.606532
6262.14594
6191.715267
8643.059446
9579.909739
8990.241514
3494.627751
711.0358982
1950.457519
7415.492813
6327.682009
3893.417346
889.2102565
111.6470282
1737.024794
4168.619319
4915.598601
3697.057953
1201.650668
117.1011072
200.7812131
82742.66974

a 1 Vt 1144 ,1039 0 , 6375 Vt R 1 0 , 382

145 ,3191 0 ,1769

d 0 , 49
s u 1 79 , 8164

Upper 95% Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%
1356.1670 932.0408 1356.1670
-0.3790
-0.8961
-0.3790

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

CFP90

PIB90

PIBD90

CG90

INV90

433.3

804.3

442.1

98.3

272.7

805.8

804.3

102.9

260.8

436.3

837.1

805.8

98.8

302

433.1

886.6

837.1

90.6

362.9

450.1

940.2

886.6

101.2

388.9

442.0

939.5

940.2

109.9

387.6

448.1

961.9

939.5

105.3

408.5

472.1

969.6

961.9

98.1

399.4

513.2

964.8

969.6

101.4

350.2

516.6

908.8

964.8

107.6

284.6

557.7

857.9

908.8

121.8

178.4

467.4

746.8

857.9

132

147.4

432.1

681

746.8

134.5

114.4

435.9

691.3

681.0

138.1

117.3

447.3

718.2

691.3

151.3

119.6

505.3

769.3

718.2

152.8

111.2

545.7

799.5

769.3

155.8

98.0

525.7

750.7

799.5

144.1

80.9

586.2

714.8

750.7

91.0

37.6

579.8

706.1

714.8

80.5

45.8

582.3

720.7

706.1

87.2

51.2

610.7

761.7

720.7

99.7

51.3

629.1

799.1

761.7

102.6

67.4

673.7

12165.8

838.3

19574.0

799.1

18735.7

108.5

2714.0

56.1

4694.2

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9020
R Square
0.8136
Adjusted R Square 0.7950
Standard Error
43.5558
Observations
23.0000

PIB90=f(PIBD90;CG90)

ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

df
2.0000
20.0000
22.0000

SS
165636.5318
37942.2325
203578.7643

Coefficients Standard Error

157.1714
104.9035
0.8708
0.0999
-0.4437
0.4239

>F(0,05;2;20)=3,49
MS
F
Significance F
82818.2659
43.6549
0.0000
1897.1116

t Stat
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%
1.4982
0.1497
-61.6535
375.9963
8.7198
0.0000
0.6625
1.0791
-1.0469
0.3076
-1.3279
0.4404
t(0,05;20)=2,086

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y
1.0000
811.9123
2.0000
815.0379
3.0000
845.9333
4.0000
884.3353
5.0000
927.1508
6.0000
928.5824
7.0000
951.2838
8.0000
956.5248
9.0000
949.5936
10.0000
894.5264
11.0000
845.6753
12.0000
747.8176
13.0000
688.9200
14.0000
692.0320
15.0000
714.7915
16.0000
757.9593
17.0000
789.4500
18.0000
770.5168
19.0000
743.9136
20.0000
733.3643
21.0000
740.5315
22.0000
774.9484
23.0000
804.8990

Residuals
-6.1123
22.0621
40.6667
55.8647
12.3492
33.3176
18.3162
8.2752
-40.7936
-36.6264
-98.8753
-66.8176
2.3800
26.1680
54.5085
41.5407
-38.7500
-55.7168
-37.8136
-12.6643
21.1685
24.1516
33.4010

ui-1
-6.1123
22.0621
40.6667
55.8647
12.3492
33.3176
18.3162
8.2752
-40.7936
-36.6264
-98.8753
-66.8176
2.3800
26.1680
54.5085
41.5407
-38.7500
-55.7168
-37.8136
-12.6643
21.1685
24.1516

ui
37.3598
486.7381
1653.7794
3120.8641
152.5031
1110.0596
335.4819
68.4789
1664.1203
1341.4923
9776.3297
4464.5924
5.6643
684.7625
2971.1729
1725.6287
1501.5606
3104.3586
1429.8674
160.3853
448.1049
583.3017
1115.6261
37942.2325

0<

d= 0.70

<d1=1,10

(u i -u i-1)

793.7972
346.1291
230.9794
1893.5971
439.6714
225.0417
100.8211
2407.7498
17.3659
3874.9300
1027.6973
4788.3066
565.8680
803.1840
168.1633
6446.5905
287.8722
320.5240
632.4849
1144.6599
8.8992
85.5505
26609.8831

AUTOCORELATIE POZITIVA

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.2162
R Square
0.0467
Adjusted R Square 0.0013
Standard Error
73.0763
Observations
23.0000

CFP90=(PIB90EST)

ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

df
1.0000
21.0000
22.0000

SS
5498.5648
112143.0934
117641.6583

MS
5498.5648
5340.1473

Coefficients Standard Error

658.7968
147.3206
-0.1822
0.1796

t Stat
4.4719
-1.0147
t(0,05;21)=2,08

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

<F(0,05;1;21)=4,32
F
Significance F
1.0297
0.3218

P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%
0.0002
352.4267
965.1668
0.3218
-0.5556
0.1912

Observation Predicted Y
1.0000
510.8669
2.0000
510.2975
3.0000
504.6683
4.0000
497.6715
5.0000
489.8706
6.0000
489.6097
7.0000
485.4735
8.0000
484.5186
9.0000
485.7815
10.0000
495.8147
11.0000
504.7153
12.0000
522.5449
13.0000
533.2760
14.0000
532.7090
15.0000
528.5623
16.0000
520.6971
17.0000
514.9596
18.0000
518.4092
19.0000
523.2563
20.0000
525.1783
21.0000
523.8725
22.0000
517.6017
23.0000
512.1448

0<

Residuals
-68.7669
-73.9975
-71.5683
-47.5715
-47.8706
-41.5097
-13.3735
28.6814
30.8185
61.8853
-37.3153
-90.4449
-97.3760
-85.4090
-23.2623
25.0029
10.7404
67.7908
56.5437
57.1217
86.8275
111.4983
161.5552

d= 0.27

INV90 Predicted Y
260.8
811.9123
302
815.0379
362.9
845.9333
388.9
884.3353
387.6
927.1508
408.5
928.5824
399.4
951.2838
350.2
956.5248
284.6
949.5936
178.4
894.5264
147.4
845.6753
114.4
747.8176
117.3
688.9200
119.6
692.0320
111.2
714.7915
98.0
757.9593
80.9
789.4500
37.6
770.5168
45.8
743.9136
51.2
733.3643
51.3
740.5315
67.4
774.9484
56.1
804.8990

ui-1
-68.7669
-73.9975
-71.5683
-47.5715
-47.8706
-41.5097
-13.3735
28.6814
30.8185
61.8853
-37.3153
-90.4449
-97.3760
-85.4090
-23.2623
25.0029
10.7404
67.7908
56.5437
57.1217
86.8275
111.4983

<d1=1,26

PIBD90
804.3
805.8
837.1
886.6
940.2
939.5
961.9
969.6
964.8
908.8
857.9
746.8
681.0
691.3
718.2
769.3
799.5
750.7
714.8
706.1
720.7
761.7
799.1

ui
4728.8927
5475.6247
5122.0266
2263.0496
2291.5916
1723.0572
178.8518
822.6200
949.7798
3829.7888
1392.4346
8180.2880
9482.0936
7294.7032
541.1332
625.1434
115.3571
4595.5962
3197.1952
3262.8863
7539.0208
12431.8618
26100.0973
112143.0934

(u i -u i-1)

27.3583
5.9007
575.8471
0.0894
40.4604
791.6444
1768.6147
4.5674
965.1454
9840.7646
2822.7548
48.0401
143.2093
3862.2203
2329.5235
203.4168
3254.7463
126.4968
0.3340
882.4378
608.6446
2505.7019
30807.9186

AUTOCORELATIE POZITIVA

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.8092
R Square
0.6548
Adjusted R Square 0.6203
Standard Error
84.3409
Observations
23.0000

INV90=f(PIB90EST,PIBD90)

ANOVA
df
2.0000
20.0000
22.0000

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

SS
269843.5811
142267.8136
412111.3948

Coefficients Standard Error

-827.5238
219.9402
0.9924
1.8496
0.2577
1.6700

MS
134921.7906
7113.3907

>F(0,05;2;20)=3,49
F
Significance F
18.9673
0.0000

t Stat
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%
-3.7625
0.0012 -1286.3110
-368.7366
0.5365
0.5975
-2.8658
4.8506
0.1543
0.8789
-3.2259
3.7413
t(0,05;20)=2,086

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted Y
1.0000
185.4562
2.0000
188.9445
3.0000
227.6701
4.0000
278.5346
5.0000
334.8356
6.0000
336.0760
7.0000
364.3765
8.0000
371.5616
9.0000
363.4464
10.0000
294.3685
11.0000
232.7737
12.0000
107.0331
13.0000
31.6289
14.0000
37.3712
15.0000
66.8890
16.0000
122.8953
17.0000
161.9281
18.0000
130.5645
19.0000
94.9133
20.0000
82.2025
21.0000
93.0772
22.0000
137.7967
23.0000
177.1565

0<

Residuals
75.3438
113.0555
135.2299
110.3654
52.7644
72.4240
35.0235
-21.3616
-78.8464
-115.9685
-85.3737
7.3669
85.6711
82.2288
44.3110
-24.8953
-81.0281
-92.9645
-49.1133
-31.0025
-41.7772
-70.3967
-121.0565

d= 0.33

ui-1
75.3438
113.0555
135.2299
110.3654
52.7644
72.4240
35.0235
-21.3616
-78.8464
-115.9685
-85.3737
7.3669
85.6711
82.2288
44.3110
-24.8953
-81.0281
-92.9645
-49.1133
-31.0025
-41.7772
-70.3967

<d1=1,10

ui2
5676.6830
12781.5349
18287.1374
12180.5133
2784.0842
5245.2405
1226.6472
456.3200
6216.7534
13448.6974
7288.6603
54.2706
7339.5430
6761.5684
1963.4689
619.7772
6565.5479
8642.3933
2412.1131
961.1575
1745.3353
4955.7021
14654.6647
142267.8136

(u i -u i-1) 2
1422.1712
491.7081
618.2473
3317.8684
386.5003
1398.7981
3179.2874
3304.4958
1378.0523
936.0459
8600.8022
6131.5593
11.8500
1437.7526
4789.5220
3150.8849
142.4778
1922.9282
327.9984
116.0935
819.0779
2566.4057
46450.5275

AUTOCORELATIE POZITIVA

Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

-61.6535
375.9963
0.6625
1.0791
-1.3279
0.4404

Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

352.4267
965.1668
-0.5556
0.1912

Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

-1286.3110
-368.7366
-2.8658
4.8506
-3.2259
3.7413