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Convergena real i convergena nominal.

Aderarea la zona euro


(continuare)
B. Convergena nominal
Tratatul de la Maastricht - cinci criterii pe care statele membre trebuie s le respecte
pentru a se putea altura UEM i a adopta moneda euro.
1. Rata medie a inflaiei - maxim +1,5 pp peste media celor mai performani 3
membri ai UE
2. Rata dobnzii nominale pe termen lung - maxim +2 pp peste media celor mai
performani 3 membri ai UE din perspectiva stabilitii preurilor
3. Deficitul bugetar - maxim 3% din PIB;
4. Ponderea datoriei publice n PIB - maxim 60%;
5. Marjele de fluctuaie ale cursului de schimb - +/-15% n ERM II, (cel puin 2
ani), fa de o rat de paritate central.
CUM S-AU CALCULAT CRITERIILE DE CONVERGEN NOMINAL?
(studiu de caz)
1. Criteriul ratei inflaiei
Condiia privind sustenabilitatea presupune ca rezultatele satisfctoare n materie de inflaie s fie
atribuite n principal evoluiei costurilor de producie i a altor factori care influeneaz evoluia
preurilor din punct de vedere structural, iar nu influenei factorilor temporari. Prin urmare,
examinarea convergenei include o evaluare a factorilor determinani ai inflaiei i a perspectivelor pe
termen mediu.
n contextul unor importante ocuri negative (criza economic i financiar mondial i presiunile
dezinflaioniste), cteva ri ale UE s-au confruntat cu perioade cu rate negative ale inflaiei (20092010). n acest context precis, ratele negative ale inflaiei constituie o referin valabil din punct de
vedere economic pe baza creia se poate evalua performana statelor n materie de stabilitate a
preurilor. Pare ns justificat excluderea rilor care au o rat medie a inflaiei ce se situeaz foarte
departe de media inflaiei pentru zona euro din categoria statelor membre cu cele mai bune rezultate.
De exemplu, n martie 2010 s-a ajuns la excluderea Irlandei, singura ar a crei rat medie a inflaiei
pe 12 luni (la -2,3% n martie 2010) a deviat considerabil de la cea nregistrat n zona euro i n alte
state membre, reflectnd, n principal, recesiunea economic sever.

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

European Union
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom
REFERIN DE
COMPLETAT

2.2
2.4
7.4
4.5
2.3
1.9
5.6
4
3.7
2.8
1.8
2.3
2
2.5
1.6
2.4
9.1
2.5
5.1
2.3
5.3
4.4
34.5
8.6
7.2
2.7
2.7
1.2

2.1
1.6
5.8
1.4
2.4
1.4
3.6
4.7
3.9
3.6
1.9
2.6
2.8
2
0.3
2.1
5.2
2.6
3.9
1.7
1.9
3.7
22.5
7.5
3.5
2
1.9
1.3

2
1.5
2.3
-0.1
2
1
1.4
4
3.4
3.1
2.2
2.8
4
2.9
-1.1
2.5
4.7
1.9
2.2
1.3
0.7
3.3
15.3
5.7
8.4
1.3
2.3
1.4

2
1.9
6.1
2.6
0.9
1.8
3
2.3
3
3.1
2.3
2.3
1.9
6.2
1.2
3.2
6.8
2.7
1.4
2
3.6
2.5
11.9
3.7
7.5
0.1
1
1.3

2.2
2.5
6
1.6
1.7
1.9
4.1
2.2
3.5
3.4
1.9
2.2
2
6.9
2.7
3.8
3.5
2.5
1.5
2.1
2.2
2.1
9.1
2.5
2.8
0.8
0.8
2.1

Evoluia ratei inflaiei din Romnia


Rata anual a inflaiei criteriu pentru inta de inflaie

Rata medie a inflaiei criteriu de convergen nominal

2.2
2.3
7.4
2.1
1.9
1.8
4.4
2.7
3.3
3.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
6.6
3.8
3
4
2.6
1.7
1.7
1.3
3
6.6
2.5
4.3
1.3
1.5
2.3

2.3
1.8
7.6
3
1.7
2.3
6.7
2.9
3
2.8
1.6
2
2.2
10.1
5.8
2.7
7.9
0.7
1.6
2.2
2.6
2.4
4.9
3.8
1.9
1.6
1.7
2.3

3.7
4.5
12
6.3
3.6
2.8
10.6
3.1
4.2
4.1
3.2
3.5
4.4
15.3
11.1
4.1
6
4.7
2.2
3.2
4.2
2.7
7.9
5.5
3.9
3.9
3.3
3.6

1
0
2.5
0.6
1.1
0.2
0.2
-1.7
1.3
-0.2
0.1
0.8
0.2
3.3
4.2
0
4
1.8
1
0.4
4
-0.9
5.6
0.9
0.9
1.6
1.9
2.2

2.1
2.3
3
1.2
2.2
1.2
2.7
-1.6
4.7
2
1.7
1.6
2.6
-1.2
1.2
2.8
4.7
2
0.9
1.7
2.7
1.4
6.1
2.1
0.7
1.7
1.9
3.3

3.1
3.5
3.4
2.1
2.7
2.5
5.1
1.2
3.1
3.1
2.3
2.9
3.5
4.2
4.1
3.7
3.9
2.5
2.5
3.6
3.9
3.6
5.8
2.1
4.1
3.3
1.4
4.5

2.6
2.6
2.4
3.5
2.4
2.1
4.2
1.9
1
2.4
2.2
3.3
3.1
2.3
3.2
2.9
5.7
3.2
2.8
2.6
3.7
2.8
3.4
2.8
3.7
3.2
0.9
2.8

Cum se calculeaz rata anual a inflaiei/rata medie anual a inflaiei?


rata
lunar

rata medie
anual

rata anual

Indicele lunar al
preturilor

Indicele anual al
preturilor

sep.11

0.2

6.9

3.5

99.79

oct.11

0.6

6.6

3.6

100.64

Produsul indicilor
lunari ai preturilor

nov.11

0.4

6.2

3.4

100.42

dec.11

0.2

5.8

3.1

100.23

ian.12

0.4

5.4

2.7

100.36

feb.12

0.6

5.0

2.6

100.64

mar.12

0.4

4.5

2.4

100.42

apr.12

0.1

4.0

1.8

100.07

mai.12

0.2

3.5

1.8

100.20

iun.12

0.0

3.0

2.0

99.96

iul.12

0.6

2.8

3.0

100.59

aug.12

0.5

2.8

3.9

100.51

1.039 (aug12/sep11)

sep.12

1.2

3.0

5.3

101.18

1.053 (sep12/oct11)

oct.12

0.3

3.1

5.0

100.29

1.050

nov.12

0.0

3.2

4.6

100.04

1.046

dec.12

0.6

3.3

5.0

100.60

1.050

ian.13

1.3

3.6

6.0

101.34

1.060

feb.13

0.3

3.9

5.7

100.34

1.057

mar.13

0.0

4.1

5.3

100.04

1.053

Indicele anual
mediu al
preturilor
Suma indicilor
anuali ai
preturilor/12

apr.13

0.1

4.4

5.3

100.11

1.053

mai.13

0.2

4.7

5.3

100.23

1.053

iun.13

0.0

5.0

5.4

100.01

1.054

iul.13

-0.3

5.1

4.4

99.66

1.044

1.051

aug.13

-0.2

5.1

3.7

99.80

1.037

1.051

sep.13

-0.6

4.8

1.9

99.43

1.019 (sep13/oct12)

1.048

Sursele inflaiei (Raportul privind inflaia, noiembrie 2013)

2. Criteriul ratei dobnzii

EU (27 countries)
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

:
5.59
:
:
5.64
5.26
5.51
6.1
5.53
5.39
5.58
:
:
:
5.52
:
:
5.4
5.56
:
5.59
:
:
:
5.48
5.37
5.33

5
5.13
:
6.31
5.08
4.8
5.01
5.3
5.12
4.94
5.19
7.62
7.57
8.15
4.86
7.95
6.19
4.96
5.08
10.7
5.16
:
:
8.04
5.04
5.11
5.01

4.92
4.99
:
4.88
5.06
4.78
5.01
5.12
4.96
4.86
5.03
5.7
5.41
6.06
4.7
7.09
5.82
4.89
4.96
7.36
5.01
:
8.72
6.94
4.98
5.3
4.91

4.23
4.18
6.45
4.12
4.31
4.07
4.13
4.27
4.12
4.13
4.25
4.74
4.9
5.32
3.32
6.82
5.04
4.12
4.14
5.78
4.18
:
6.4
4.99
4.13
4.64
4.58

4.38
4.15
5.36
4.82
4.3
4.04
4.08
4.26
4.1
4.1
4.26
5.8
4.86
4.5
2.84
8.19
4.69
4.1
4.13
6.9
4.14
:
4.68
5.03
4.11
4.42
4.93

3.7
3.43
3.87
3.54
3.4
3.35
3.33
3.59
3.39
3.41
3.56
5.16
3.88
3.7
2.41
6.6
4.56
3.37
3.39
5.22
3.44
:
3.81
3.52
3.35
3.38
4.46

4.03
3.81
4.18
3.8
3.81
3.76
3.76
4.07
3.78
3.8
4.05
4.13
4.13
4.08
3.3
7.12
4.32
3.78
3.8
5.23
3.91
7.23
3.85
4.41
3.78
3.7
4.37

4.56
4.33
4.54
4.3
4.29
4.22
4.31
4.5
4.31
4.3
4.49
4.48
5.28
4.55
4.46
6.74
4.72
4.29
4.3
5.48
4.42
7.13
4.53
4.49
4.29
4.17
5.06

4.54
4.42
5.38
4.63
4.28
3.98
4.53
4.8
4.37
4.23
4.68
4.6
6.43
5.61
4.61
8.24
4.81
4.23
4.36
6.07
4.52
7.7
4.61
4.72
4.29
3.89
4.5

4.13
3.9
7.22
4.84
3.59
3.22
5.23
5.17
3.98
3.65
4.31
4.6
12.4
14
4.23
9.12
4.54
3.69
3.94
6.12
4.21
9.69
4.38
4.71
3.74
3.25
3.36

3.82
3.46
6.01
3.88
2.93
2.74
5.74
9.09
4.25
3.12
4.04
4.6
10.3
5.57
3.17
7.28
4.19
2.99
3.23
5.78
5.4
7.34
3.83
3.87
3.01
2.89
3.36

4.3
4.23
5.36
3.71
2.73
2.61
9.6
15.8
5.44
3.32
5.42
5.79
5.91
5.16
2.92
7.64
4.49
2.99
3.32
5.96
10.2
7.29
4.97
4.45
3.01
2.61
2.87

3.68
3
4.5
2.78
1.4
1.5
6.17
22.5
5.85
2.54
5.49
7
4.57
4.83
1.82
7.89
4.13
1.93
2.37
5
10.55
6.68
5.81
4.55
1.89
1.59
1.74

CDS - prima de asigurare pe care un creditor trebuie s o plteasc unui ter pentru ca, n cazul n care
debitorul intr n incapacitate de plat, s i poat recupera integral suma plasat.

3. Criteriul deficitului bugetar


ESA95
2002
EU (27 countries)
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom

-2.6
-0.1
-1.2
-6.5
0.4
-3.8
0.3
-0.4
-4.8
-0.2
-3.1
-3.1
-4.4
-2.3
-1.9
2.1
-9
-5.8
-2.1
-0.7
-5
-3.4
-2
-2.4
-8.2
4.2
-1.3
-2.1

2003
-3.2
-0.1
-0.4
-6.7
0.1
-4.2
1.7
0.4
-5.6
-0.3
-4.1
-3.6
-6.6
-1.6
-1.3
0.5
-7.3
-9.2
-3.1
-1.5
-6.2
-3.7
-1.5
-2.7
-2.8
2.6
-1
-3.4

2004
-2.9
-0.1
1.9
-2.8
2.1
-3.8
1.6
1.4
-7.5
-0.1
-3.6
-3.5
-4.1
-1
-1.5
-1.1
-6.5
-4.7
-1.7
-4.4
-5.4
-4
-1.2
-2.3
-2.4
2.5
0.6
-3.5

2005
-2.5
-2.5
1
-3.2
5.2
-3.3
1.6
1.7
-5.2
1.3
-2.9
-4.4
-2.4
-0.4
-0.5
0
-7.9
-2.9
-0.3
-1.7
-4.1
-6.5
-1.2
-1.5
-2.8
2.9
2.2
-3.4

2006
-1.5
0.4
1.9
-2.4
5.2
-1.6
2.5
2.9
-5.7
2.4
-2.3
-3.4
-1.2
-0.5
-0.4
1.4
-9.4
-2.8
0.5
-1.5
-3.6
-4.6
-2.2
-1.4
-3.2
4.2
2.3
-2.7

2007
-0.9
-0.1
1.2
-0.7
4.8
0.2
2.4
0.1
-6.5
1.9
-2.7
-1.6
3.5
-0.4
-1
3.7
-5.1
-2.3
0.2
-0.9
-1.9
-3.1
-2.9
0
-1.8
5.3
3.6
-2.8

2008
-2.4
-1
1.7
-2.2
3.2
-0.1
-2.9
-7.4
-9.8
-4.5
-3.3
-2.7
0.9
-4.2
-3.3
3.2
-3.7
-4.6
0.5
-0.9
-3.7
-3.6
-5.7
-1.9
-2.1
4.4
2.2
-5.1

2009

2010

-6.9
-5.5
-4.3
-5.8
-2.7
-3.1
-2
-13.9
-15.6
-11.2
-7.5
-5.4
-6.1
-9.8
-9.4
-0.8
-4.6
-3.9
-5.6
-4.1
-7.4
-10.2
-9
-6
-8
-2.5
-0.7
-11.5

-6.5
-3.8
-3.1
-4.8
-2.5
-4.1
0.2
-30.9
-10.7
-9.7
-7.1
-4.5
-5.3
-8.1
-7.2
-0.8
-4.4
-3.6
-5.1
-4.5
-7.9
-9.8
-6.8
-5.7
-7.7
-2.5
0.3
-10.2

2011
-4.4
-3.7
-2
-3.3
-1.8
-0.8
1.1
-13.4
-9.4
-9.4
-5.2
-3.9
-6.3
-3.4
-5.5
-0.3
4.3
-2.7
-4.5
-2.5
-5
-4.4
-5.5
-6.4
-4.9
-0.6
0.4
-7.8

2012
-3.9
-4
-0.8
-4.4
-4.1
0.1
-0.2
-8.2
-9
-10.6
-4.8
-3
-6.4
-1.3
-3.2
-0.6
-2
-3.3
-4.1
-2.5
-3.9
-6.4
-3
-3.8
-4.5
-1.8
-0.2
-6.1

Eurostat utilizeaza metoda ESA, in vreme ce FMI foloseste metoda cash. In cazul standardului ESA de pilda, garantiile de stat
se adauga la deficit, iar deficitul calculat astfel este mai mare decat cel obtinut prin calculul folosit de FMI.
Standardul ESA95 are ca principale diferent fata de metodologia cash inregistrarea veniturilor si cheltuielilor in sistem
accrual (pe baza de angajamente, nu de plati efective precum in sistemul cash).

4. Criteriul datoriei publice

EU (27 countries)
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Ireland
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

65.8
114
77.6
15.8
58.1
61.3
6.5
47
94
62.4
58.9
113
59.3
12.5
22.7
6.4
60.8
57.1
61.1
66.8
39.6
51.4
21.7
24.1
47.8
45.7
64.3
43.7

61.9
108
72.5
17.8
52.4
60.2
5.1
35.1
103
59.4
57.3
109
59.6
12.4
23.6
6.2
56.1
54.9
53.8
66.2
36.8
50.7
22.5
26.3
50.3
43.8
53.9
41

61
107
66
23.9
49.6
59.1
4.8
35.2
104
55.6
56.9
108
61.2
14.1
23
6.3
52.7
60.5
50.7
66.8
37.6
53.8
25.7
26.5
48.9
42.5
54.7
37.7

60.5
103
52.4
27.1
49.5
60.7
5.7
32
102
52.6
58.8
105
65.1
13.6
22.2
6.3
55.9
59.1
50.5
66.2
42.2
56.8
24.9
27.8
43.4
41.5
52.5
37.7

61.9
98.4
44.4
28.6
47.2
64.4
5.6
30.7
97.4
48.8
62.9
104
69.7
14.7
21
6.1
58.6
67.6
52
65.3
47.1
59.4
21.5
27.2
42.4
44.5
51.7
39.1

62.3
94
37
28.9
45.1
66.2
5
29.5
98.6
46.3
64.9
103
70.9
15
19.3
6.3
59.5
71.7
52.4
64.7
45.7
61.9
18.7
27.3
41.5
44.4
50.3
41

62.8
92
27.5
28.4
37.8
68.5
4.6
27.3
100
43.2
66.4
106
69.4
12.5
18.3
6.1
61.7
69.7
51.8
64.2
47.1
67.7
15.8
26.7
34.2
41.7
50.4
42.2

61.6
88
21.6
28.3
32.1
68
4.4
24.6
106
39.7
63.7
106
64.7
10.7
17.9
6.7
65.9
64
47.4
62.3
47.7
69.4
12.4
26.4
30.5
39.6
45.3
43.3

59
84
17.2
27.9
27.1
65.2
3.7
25.1
107
36.3
64.2
103
58.8
9
16.8
6.7
67
61.9
45.3
60.2
45
68.4
12.8
23.1
29.6
35.2
40.2
44.2

62.2
89.2
13.7
28.7
33.4
66.8
4.5
44.5
113
40.2
68.2
106
48.9
19.8
15.5
14.4
73
62
58.5
63.8
47.1
71.7
13.4
22
27.9
33.9
38.8
52.3

74.6
95.7
14.6
34.2
40.6
74.5
7.2
64.9
130
53.9
79.2
116
58.5
36.7
29.3
15.3
79.8
67.6
60.8
69.2
50.9
83.2
23.6
35
35.6
43.5
42.6
67.8

80
95.5
16.2
37.8
42.9
82.5
6.7
92.2
148
61.5
82.3
119
61.3
44.5
37.9
19.2
81.8
68.3
63.1
72
54.8
93.5
30.5
38.6
41
48.6
39.5
79.4

82.5
97.8
16.3
40.8
46.6
80.5
6.1
106
171
69.3
86
121
71.1
42.2
38.5
18.3
81.4
70.9
65.5
72.4
56.4
108
33.4
46.9
43.3
49
38.4
85

85.2
99.8
18.5
46.2
45.4
81
9.8
117.4
156.9
86
90.2
127
86.6
40.6
40.5
21.7
79.8
71.3
71.3
74
55.6
124.1
37.9
54.4
52.4
53.6
38.2
88.7

Primary deficit (% of GDP)


Gross financing need (billions lei)
Gross financing need (% of GDP)

2007
2.2
10.4
2.5

2008
5
14.3
2.8

2009
7.5
56.9
11.4

2010
5.3
46.1
8.8

2011
3.9
59.5
10.7

2012
1.1
64.3
10.9

2013
0.8
66.7
10.7

5. Criteriul cursului de schimb

C. Armonizarea proceselor de convergen real i nominal


C.1. Relaia convergen real convergen nominal
Influen favorabil
Reformele structurale impulsioneaz convergena PIB-ului/locuitor ceea
ce conduce la o cretere neinflaionist a salariilor, la creterea
veniturilor, la majorarea ncasrilor fiscale (consolidare fiscal
sustenabil).
Convergena nivelului productivitii determin reducerea costurilor
medii de producie, accelernd dezinflaia n sectorul bunurilor
comercializabile.
Influen nefavorabil

Diferenele de productivitate ntre sectorul bunurilor comercializabile i


cel al bunurilor necomercializabile (efectul Balassa-Samuleson), n
condiiile unor creteri salariale uniforme, vor genera persistena unui
nivel mai ridicat al inflaiei (convergena preurilor bunurilor
necomercializabile cu UE, care nu este susinut de creterea
productivitii).
C.2. Relaia convergen nominal convergen real
Influen favorabil
Reducerea ratei inflaiei i a ratei dobnzii (pentru a respecta criteriile
de la Maastricht) determin o cretere a investiiilor i prin urmare a
PIB-ului.
O volatilitate redus a monedei naionale (care s fluctueze ntr-o marj
de stabilit) determin o cretere a ISD-urilor i a exporturilor (a
gradului de deschidere) cu implicaii favorabile asupra procesului de
convergen real.
Reducerea deficitului bugetar determina cresterea economisirii
nationale, care va genera majorarea investitiilor si reducerea deficitului
extern.
Influen nefavorabil
Impunerea respectrii criteriilor de la Maastricht (mai ales n ceea ce
privete deficitul bugetar i datoria public) poate afecta procesul de
convergen al economiilor n care nivelul investiiilor este redus;
existena unor deficite bugetare sustenabile (dei mai mari dect 3 % din
PIB) poate contribui la adaptarea structural mai rapid a acestor
economii la cerinele UE.

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