Chapter 8.

2
Measuring Public Opinion
Objectives
Explain the polling process by filling out
the guided notes
Create a flow chart of the polling
process.
How do we communicate
Public Opinion?
We communicate Public Opinion in the
following ways through:
Elections
Interest Groups
The Media
and Personal Contacts
Elections
We seem to think that elections are the most
vocal form of public opinion.
i.e. we like somebody, so we keep them in
office, visa versa.
Regardless, the winning candidate often
claims to have received a mandate or the
instructions a constituency gives to its elected
officials.
However, election results are not really
all that accurate in determining public
opinion.
The voters tend to vote on more than
where the candidate stands on public
issues.
Interest Groups
We have already talked about interest
groups, can anybody tell me what they are?
They also are a means through which public
opinion is communicated.
They share their findings through
lobbyists, letters, telephone calls, political
campaigns, among other methods.
The Media
The Media has a huge effect in the way
public opinion is communicated.
However, they tend to mold information
as they see fit and is not a very accurate
representation of public opinion.
Personal Contacts
Many politicians have contacts with the people and
they try to gain a sense of what the public is
thinking through reading; letters, emails, and phone
calls.
This way, politicians can gain a sense of what the
public is thinking, with a surprising amount of
accuracy.
However, some politicians only find information on
what they want to find, those views that agree with
their own.
Measuring Public
Opinion
The best way to measure public opinion is
through the use of public opinion polls.
Devices that attempt to collect information by
asking people questions. The more accurate
polls are based on scientific polling techniques.
Public opinion polls have been around for a long
time, however since the 1930s, only recently
started becoming scientific.
Straw Votes
Straw Vote: Polls that sought to read the
public's mind simply by asking the same
question of a large number of people.
Problem: It emphasizes quantity over quality.
Nothing in the process ensures that those
who respond will represent a reasonably
accurate cross section of the total
population.
Scientific Polling
Since the mid-1930s, polling has sought
to take a more scientific approach.
Gallup Organization (the Gallup Poll)
Louis Harris and Associates (the Harris
Survey)
The Polling Process
Consists of Five Steps:
1. Define the universe to be surveyed.
2. Construct a sample.
3. Prepare valid questions.
4. Select and control how the poll will be taken
(Interviewing).
5. Analyze and report their findings to the public.
Defining the Universe
The whole population the poll aims to
measure.
The group whose opinions the poll will
seek to discover.
Ex: All Republicans in Northwest Ohio
All FCCC students age 16 and over
Constructing a Sample
For very small universes, say I wanted to poll
you all (which I often do), it is entirely
practical to conduct a poll on every one of
you.
For very large universes, it is not practical to
poll everybody.
Instead, we select a sample. Which is a
representative slice of the total universe.
The most reliable sampling method is the
random sample.
The pollster interviews a certain number of
randomly selected people who live in a
certain number of randomly selected
places.
If done correctly, a random sample result
will be accurate to within a small and
predictable margin of error.
A less reliable method of conducting a
sample is the quota sample.
A sample deliberately constructed to
reflect several of the major
characteristics of a given universe.
Ex: If the universe is 49% male and
2% Ohioans, the sample will be made
up of 49% males and 2% Ohioans.
Preparing Valid
Questions
The way you word a question has a
huge impact on the outcome and bias of
the answers.
Reputable pollsters phrase their
questions very carefully. No loaded or
emotionally charged words, difficult
terms, etc.
Interviewing
In the past, most polls were conducted door-to-
door.
Most polls today are conducted by telephone, with
the sample being selected by random digital dialing.
There are advantages and disadvantages to each
(expenses and labor), however only one type
should be used on any given poll.
Tone of voice, attitude, appearance, wording of the
question, etc. may alter the results as well.
Analyze and Report
Findings
Try to measure peoples attitudes.
Draw your conclusion.
Did you find the results you were looking for?
How will you present the information?
Computers and graphs have help displayed
the results in a better way.
Evaluating Polls
On the whole, most national and regional polls are fairly
reliable.
Scientific polls are the most useful tools for measuring
public opinion.
Stimulates discussion and brings attention to public
questions.
Though, sometimes pollsters often create the
"bandwagon effect." That is, some voters will vote for
whoever is ahead in the polls just to say they voted for
the winner.
Limits on the Impact of
Public Opinion
Polls are not elections, nor substitutes
for elections.
Public opinion is not the only influence
on public policy.
Remember: Interest Groups