THE GRAMMAR

We can use MODALS to speculate in English. The Modals for speculation are:
must, could, may, may not, might, might not, cant, and couldnt.

We can put these modals of speculation into 3 categories. We categorize them by how certain we are.
#1) If we are very certain that something is true (95%-99%), we use must.
For example:
She must have stolen the cake! (PAST TENSE CERTAINTY: MODAL + have + PAST PARTICIPLE)
Whoever it was must be a chocolate lover. (PRESENT TENSE CERTAINTY: MODAL + BF)

#2) If we are talking about things we believe are possibilities (30%-50%) we use could, may, may not,
might, and might not.
For example:
Anyone could have taken the cake. (PAST TENSE POSSIBILITY: MODAL + have + PAST
PARTICIPLE)
It may have been him, but he seems to like cookies. (PAST
TENSE POSSIBILITY: MODAL + have + PAST PARTICIPLE)
So I guess, it might not have been him. (PAST TENSE
NEGATIVE POSSIBILITY: MODAL + not + have + PAST PARTICIPLE)

#3) If we are very certain that something is impossible, we use cant or couldnt.
For example:
That cant be right- The witness said the suspect was average size. (PRESENT TENSE
IMPOSSIBILITY:MODAL + not + BF)
And it cant have been this guy. He only likes vegetables! (PAST TENSE
IMPOSSIBILITY: MODAL + not +have + PAST PARTICIPLE)