Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
0RGHOXOPXOWLIDFWRULDO
6SHFLILFDUHDLGHILQLUHDPRGHOXOXLPXOWLIDFWRULDO
I[ X
XQGH
\
[
M = N N
X
QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH
YDULDELODUH]LGXDO VDXDOHDWRDUHVDXHURDUH
I [
IXQF LD GH UHJUHVLH FX DMXWRUXO F UHLD YRU IL HVWLPDWH DSUR[LPDWH YDORULOH
HFRQRPHWULF
WUHEXLH
LQWHUSUHWDW
FD
R
H[SUHVLH
IRUPDO
D
PHWRGHL
HFRQRPHWULFHGHLQYHVWLJDUHDXQXLRELHFWHFRQRPLF
5HDOLWDWHD\
7HRULD>I[ @QWkPSODUHDX
&D UHJXO JHQHUDO L IXQGDPHQWDO VSHFLILFDUHD XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VH IDFH SH ED]D
WHRULHL HFRQRPLFH )HQRPHQXO HFRQRPLF \ VH SUHFL]HD] SH ED]D FRQFHSWHORU GHILQL LLORU L D
UHOD LLORU FDX] HIHFW HODERUDWH GH F WUH DFHDVWD L VH DFFHSW IHQRPHQXO [ FD IDFWRU HVHQ LDO VDX VH
UHVSLQJHLVHWUHFHvQFDWHJRULDIDFWRULORUvQWkPSO WRULSULQLQWHUPHGLXOYDULDELOHLDOHDWRDUHX
'LPHQVLXQHDSDFKHWXOXLGHYDULDELOHH[SOLFDWLYH[ GHSLQGHvQV LGHEDQFDGHGDWHVWDWLVWLFH
DYDULDELOHORUUHVSHFWLYHGHFDQWLWDWHDLGHFDOLWDWHDDFHVWRUD
Q HFRQRPLH PRGHOHOH PXOWLIDFWRULDOH DX R DULH YDVW GH DSOLFDUHDFHVWHDSXWkQGILXWLOL]DWH
vQPDLPXOWHVLWXD LLLVXEGLYHUVHIRUPHFDGHH[HPSOX
D PRGHODUHDFRQVXPXOXL
&
XQGH
&
FRQVXPXOXQXLSURGXVVDXJUXSHGHSURGXVH
9
YHQLWXOSHIDPLOLH
3
1
QXP UXOPHPEULORUXQHLIDPLOLL
XQGH
4
.
FDSLWDOXO
/
IRU DGHPXQF
,
I, ,
XQGH
LQGLFHOHFXUVXOXLYDOXWDU
,
LQGLFHOHPDVHLPRQHWDUH
,
,
, X
LQGLFHOHSUH XULORU
,
,GHQWLILFDUHDPRGHOXOXLPXOWLIDFWRULDO
&D L vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL XQLIDFWRULDO LGHQWLILFDUHD HFRQRPHWULF FRQVW vQ DOHJHUHD XQHL
IXQF LLPDWHPDWLFHvQYHGHUHDGHVFULHULLOHJ WXULLDUHOD LHLGLQWUHYDULDELODHQGRJHQ \LIDFWRULLV L
GHLQIOXHQ
FXVHULLOHVWDWLVWLFHVHULLGH
[
[
\
[
[
[
\
[
[
[
\
M
M
M
M
[
[
[
\
XQGH
W = Q Q
M = N N
QXP UXOWHUPHQLORUVHULLORUVWDWLVWLFH
QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH
,GHQWLILFDUHD SUHVXSXQH FD SH ED]D GDWHORU H[SHULPHQWDOH \ L [ V VH J VHDVF R IXQF LH
PDWHPDWLF <
YDULDELOHORU[
6SUH GHRVHELUH GH FD]XO XQLIDFWRULDO XQGH SURFHGHXO JUDILF VDX FDOFXOHOH DOJHEULFH RIHUHDX
DLXQXLPRGHOPXOWLIDFWRULDOOLQLDUFDUHHVWHFHOPDLSHUIRUPDQWPRGHO
vQUDSRUWFXGDWHOHH[SHULPHQWDOH
'HUHJXO vQHFRQRPLHSULQFLSDOHOHIXQF LLGHUHJUHVLHPXOWLIDFWRULDOHVXQWGHIRUPD
IXQF LDOLQLDU
E E [
E [ E [
<
= E
<
OQ <
[
= OQ E
+E
OQ [
K [
<&
OQ<
=E
VDX
= E5
<0
OQ<
OQ<
XQGH b
= OQ E
= b
W
E4
= OQ E
+E [
. 2-
3. 1 -
+ OQ E
+ b [
W
= OQ E
M = N
+ b
W
+
OQ [
K + E
K E/
[
+ E
W
M
b
[
W
. ,-
K+E
+ OQ E
W
NW
W
K+ b
+
[
OQ [
K + OQ E
NW
NW
[6 SULQFLSDOLLIDFWRULGHLQIOXHQ
<8
= I
([ 78 ) = E ;
+ E: [ : 8
+ E9 [ 9 8
DLIHQRPHQXOXL\
K + E7
M = N W = Q UHOD LDGHGHSHQGHQ
[ 78
QXVXQWDOWFHYDGHFkWVLPSOHLSRWH]HGHOXFUX
9DOLGDUHD VDX LQILUPDUHD DFHVWRUD YD FRQVWLWXL GH DOWIHO SULQFLSDOXO RELHFWLY DO HWDSHL GH
YHULILFDUHHFRQRPHWULF DPRGHOXOXL
(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXLPXOWLIDFWRULDO
(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUPRGHOXOXLVHIDFHvQXUPDHWDSHLGHLGHQWLILFDUHDDFHVWXLD'HRDUHFH
PDUHD PDMRULWDWH D PRGHOHORU HFRQRPHWULFH SRW IL OLQLDUL]DWH XQ PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO vQ IRUP
JHQHUDO VHSUH]LQW DVWIHO
E = [ =
< E > [ >
< E ? [ ?< E 6 [6
< E @ [@< XA
\ <
XQGH
W = Q Q
QXP UXOWHUPHQLORUVHULLORUVWDWLVWLFH
M = N N
QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH
FHHDFHDQDOLWLFGHYLQH
= E
\ F
+ EF
+ E D
[ FHF
[ F D
++ E C
[ FIC
+ XF
XQGH[ =
\ B
= E
G +
E B
+ E D
[ BF
[ BED
+ + E C
[ BC
+ XB
= VXQWHJDOHFXXQLWDWHD "
= Q
'HILQLQGFX
< =
\ L
K
\
\ J
YHFWRUXO
FRORDQ
DO
YDULDELOHL
HQGRJHQH
\
<
W = Q
GH
GLPHQVLXQHQ
O M
[ O O
KKK [
[ Q O
KKK[
Q M
[ P O
KKK [
P M
KKKKKKKK
[ N
KKK [
N M
GLPHQVLXQHQN
E
E
% =
Y[Z
WX
V
GH GLPHQVLXQH N
X
8 =
W = Q
GH GLPHQVLXQH
Q
5HOD LDVXEIRUP PDWULFHDO GHYLQH
;%8
<
a a KK [ a d
` a KK [ ` d
KKKKKKK
Q
Q N +
c a KK [ c d
N +
Q
)XQF LD GH UHJUHVLH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH PRGHOXOXL VFULV VXE IRUPD XQHL HFXD LL PDWULFHDOH
HVWH
< = ; %
-< = <
XQGH <
%
- ;
Q FD]XO XQXL PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO SDUDPHWULL SRW IL HVWLPD L SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO PDL PXOWRU
PHWRGH FXP DU IL PHWRGD SXQFWHORU HPSLULFH PHWRGD SXQFWHORU PHGLL PHWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL
S WUDWH0&003PHWRGDYHURVLPLOLW
LLPD[LPHHWF
0HWRGD SXQFWHORU HPSLULFH L PHWRGD SXQFWHORU PHGLL VXQW IRORVLWH vQ FD]XO PRGHOHORU vQ
FDUH DSOLFDUHD PHWRGHL FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH HVWH DQHYRLRDV QHFHVLWkQG FDOFXOH FRPSOLFDWH GH
UHJXO SHQWUXIXQF LLOHQHOLQLDUHIXQF LDORJLVWLF
0HWRGD FHORU PDL PLFL S WUDWH HVWH PHWRGD FHO PDL GHV XWLOL]DW Q FD]XO XQXL PRGHO
PXOWLIDFWRULDODSOLFDUHDDFHVWHLDSUHVXSXQHPLQLPL]DUHDIXQF LHL
$
) (% ) =
P LQ
j
fh
= P LQ 8 8
= P LQ
(<
$)
- <
)% )
= P LQ < -
$)
;%
$
) ( % )
$
= - ( ; < ) + ( ; ;
)%
=
( ; ; ) % = ; <
= P LQ
(<
$ ) (<
;%
$) =
;%
LDQXODUHDDFHVWHLD
QFD]XOvQFDUHPDWULFHD;;DGPLWHLQYHUV
SULQvQPXO LUHDODVWkQJDDHFXD LHLPDWULFHDOH
l
FX;; k
UH]XOW F
(;
; )
m n
(;
; ) % =
(;
; )
m n
(;
< )
% =
(;
)o (;
<
)=
r
E
q
E
p
E
(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUXQXLPRGHOHFRQRPHWULFPXOWLIDFWRULDOOLQLDUVHSRDWHIDFHLSHED]D
PDWULFHLYDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ HORULDPDWULFHLFRHILFLHQ LORUGHFRUHOD LHOLQLDU VLPSOL
)LHPRGHOXO
= Ev
\s
+ Eu [ u s
+ Et [ t s
+ Xs
\ = Ew
+ E xy
[x
+ Ez{
[z
- \ = E }~
([ } |
\|
- [}
+ E
([ |
- [
+ X|
6HQRWHD] FX
= \
= [
= [
W
- \
- [
- [
W
=E [
+E
W
+X
W
= E [
<
+E [
(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUDFHVWXLPRGHOVHUHDOL]HD] FXDMXWRUXO0&003
) = PLQ
) E E
-<
) = PLQ
- E [
-E [
0LQLPXO DFHVWHL IXQF LL HVWH GDW GH FDOFXOXO GHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL
PRGHOXOXL
) E
E
( )
) E E
= E [
= E [
+E
+E
= \
= \
([ - [
([
+ E
)([
- [
([
- [
- [
)([
([
+ E
- [
- [
Q
(\
(\
- \
)([
- [
Q
- \
)([
- [
)
)
E
s
+ E FRY( [ [
E FRY( [ [
) + E
)=
FRY( \ [
= FRY( \ [
(VWLPDWRULLSDUDPHWULORUVHYRUFDOFXODDVWIHO
FRY( \ [
FRY( \ [
FRY( [ [
FRY( [ [
FRY( [ [
FRY( [ [
)
)
FRY( [ [
s
FRY( \ [
FRY( \ [
FRY( [ [
)
)
7HUPHQXO OLEHU E SRDWH IL HVWLPDW GLQ UHOD LD GXS FDOFXOXO HVWLPDWRULORU
SDUDPHWULORU E L E DVWIHO
= \ - E y
[
- E {
[
HORUVHGHILQHWHDVWIHO
0DWULFHDYDULDQ HORULFRYDULDQ
[
FRY( \
9 = FRY( [ \ )
FRY( [
\)
FRY( [ [
FRY( \ [
FRY( [ [
VDXvQFD]XOJHQHUDO
FRY( \ [
FRY( [ \ )
9 =
FRY( [ \ )
FRY( [ [
FRY
(\
MW
W =
)=
FRY( [ [
FRY( [ [
FRY( [ [
[
FRY( [ [
HVWHGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL\
FRY( \ [
W =
FRY( [ [
FRY( \ [
FRY( [ \ )
XQGH
HVWHGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL [ M = Q
(\
)([
- \
'LVSXQkQGGHPDWULFHD9HVWLPDWRULL E
= E
\ [
- [
MW
MW
XQGH
= E
(- )
M = N
9E
OLQLD\LFRORDQD [
= GHWHUPLQDQWXO PDWULFHL YDULDQ HORU L FRYDULDQ HORU GLQ FDUH VH HOLPLQ
9H
OLQLD\LFRORDQD\
5DSRUWXO GH FRUHOD LH PXOWLSO SRDWH IL H[SULPDW FX DMXWRUXO PDWULFHL YDULDQ HORU L
FRYDULDQ HORUDVWIHO
\ [
-
9
9
\\
(VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL FX DMXWRUXO PDWULFHL FRHILFLHQ LORU GH FRUHOD LH OLQLDU
SUHVXSXQHHIHFWXDUHDXUP WRDUHORURSHUD LL
VHvQPXO HWHUHOD LDFX
- \
= E s
s
s
([
L
- [
s
s
+ E s
([
- [
+X
DEDWHULOHVWDQGDUGQRUPDWHVHQRWHD] FX
\ - \
[ - [
[
= E s [
+ E s [
+ X
= E s [
<
+ E s [
) = PLQ
) E
( )
) E
( )
6HWLHF U
-<
=
Q s
WM
WM
) = s
= s
(\
- E s [
)
)
+ E s
- E s [
[ [
+ E s
= PLQ
s
[
s
[ [
E s
E s [
[ WM
L U
=
+E
= s
+E
= s
U
5 = U
5 =
$
'LVSXQkQGGHDFHDVW PDWULFHHVWLPDWRULL E
$
= E
VDXvQFD]XOJHQHUDO
(- )
!#"
s
s
$
XQGH
&' %
))
= GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHL5GLQFDUHVDHOLPLQDWOLQLD\LFRORDQD [
= GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHL5GLQFDUHVDHOLPLQDWOLQLD\LFRORDQD\
&XDMXWRUXODFHVWHLPDWULFLVHSRWFDOFXOD
. 2 - +2 - *
. 2-*2-+
1 3,
(- )
1 3,
./.
(- )
.0- +
- +- *
.0- *
./.
- +- *
UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LHPXOWLSO
\ [
\\
,SRWH]HSHQWUXHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORU
$SOLFDUHD 0&003 vQ FD]XO XQXL PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO VH IXQGDPHQWHD] SH FkWHYD
LSRWH]HLDQXPH
HL
8#:
HVWH
FRQVWDQW
L
LQGHSHQGHQW
GH
YDULDELOHOH
0X
H[RJHQH
;
KRPRVFHGDVWLFLWDWH
<
0X
LDU
LSRWH]D
GH
, 9DORULOH YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH 8 VXQW LQGHSHQGHQWH UHVSHFWLY QX H[LVW IHQRPHQXO GH
DXWRFRUHODUHDHURULORUFRYX
X
>
"W W = Q
, /HJHD GH SUREDELOLWDWH D YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH HVWH OHJHD QRUPDO GH PHGLH ]HUR L GH
A5
X
= \
YDORULOHHPSLULFHDOHYDULDELOHLHQGRJHQH<
<
YDORULOH WHRUHWLFH DOH YDULDELOHL HQGRJHQH FDOFXODW SH ED]D IXQF LHL GH
OP Q
V
Q - N -
REVHUYD LLLDUN
XQGH \
s
SUHFXP L D
= V
= E
E EB
+E [
D DB
+ + E [
QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[SOLFDWLYH
F
LM
W;
XQGH F
( ( V U TS
M = N
X=
PHGLD FRQGL LRQDW D YDULDELOHL < vQ IXQF LH GH YDORULOH IDFWRULORU ; OD PRPHQWXO W HVWH
W ;
=<
=E
+E [
+ + E
GLVSHUVLD FRQGL LRQDW D YDULDELOHL < HURDUHD GH HVWLPDUH D DFHVWHLD VH FDOFXOHD] FX
DMXWRUXOUHOD LHL
V
c
] a` _^
XQGH ;
-<
=V
[ + ; Z
(;
b
d
]
[ W
= 0 \
W
NW
9HULILFDUHDVHPQLILFD LHLPRGHOXOXL
9HULILFDUHD
VHPQLILFD LHL
PRGHOXOXL
SUHVXSXQH
YHULILFDUHD
LSRWH]HORU
GH
DSOLFDUH
D
UDSRUWXOXLGHFRUHOD LH
Q DFHDVW HWDS HVWH QHFHVDU YHULILFDUHD D SRVWHULRUL ! D LSRWH]HORU GH DSOLFDUH D
0&003GHRDUHFHvQJHQHUDOHVWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUVHHIHFWXHD] vQXUPDDFFHSW ULLDSULRULFH
DYDODELOLW
LLLSRWH]HORUHQXQ DWH
XQLIDFWRULDOH
n oml
9HULILFDUHD LSRWH]HL , SUHVXSXQH FD YDULDELOHOH H[RJHQH V IRUPH]H XQ VLVWHP GH YHFWRUL
OLQLDULLQGHSHQGHQ LUHVSHFWLYYDULDELOHOHH[RJHQHV QXILHFRUHODWH
2SXVXO DFHVWXL IHQRPHQ vO UHSUH]LQW PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWHD YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH FDUH HVWH XQ
IHQRPHQ IRDUWH IUHFYHQW vQ GRPHQLXO HFRQRPLF GDWRULW PXOWLSOHORU UHOD LL GH GHSHQGHQ
LQWHUGHSHQGHQ
L
W
)LJXUDQU
FDOFXOXO GHWHUPLQDQWXOXL PDWULFHL ;C; ';C; vQ VHQVXO F SH P VXU FH VH DSURSLH GH
]HUR DFHVWD LQGLF R LQWHUFRUHODUH GLQ FH vQ FH PDL VWUkQV 'DF ';C; VH FRQVLGHU F
IHQRPHQXOGHPXOWLFROLQLDULWDWHHVWHSUH]HQW
FDOFXOXO P ULPLL FRHILFLHQWXOXL GH GHWHUPLQDUH 5 $FHDVW YDORDUH HVWH FRPSDUDW FX
P ULPHD DFHOXLDL FRHILFLHQW RE LQXW vQ FRQGL LLOH vQ FDUH XQD GLQWUH YDULDELOHOH IDFWRULDOH D IRVW
RPLV GLQPRGHOQFD]XOvQFDUHYDORULOHFRHILFLHQ LORUVXQWDSURSLDWHFDP ULPHVHSRDWHFRQVLGHUD
F YDULDELODRPLV HVWHFROLQLDU FXFHOHODOWHYDULDELOHIDFWRULDOH$EVHQ DDFHVWHLYDULDELOHGLQPRGHO
DU IL GH GRULW vQWUXFkW DU FRQGXFH OD GLPLQXDUHD PXOWLFROLQLDULW
GHGHWHUPLQDUHDIDFWRULORUDVXSUDYDULDELOHLHIHFW
WHVWHOH VWDWLVWLFH 6WXGHQW W XWLOL]DW vQ YHGHUHD YHULILF ULL VHPQLILFD LHL SDUDPHWULORU
PRGHOXOXL L )LVKHU6QHGHFRU ) XWLOL]DW vQ YHGHUHD YHULILF ULL VHPQLILFD LHL PRGHOXOXL Q FD]XO vQ
FDUH WHVWXO ) VHPQDOHD] VHPQLILFD LH LDU WHVWXO W DSOLFDW DFHOXLDL PRGHO VHPQDOHD]
QHVHPQLILFD LL vQ UkQGXO SDUDPHWULORU DFHVW OXFUX UHSUH]LQW XQ LQGLFLX F PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWHD HVWH
SUH]HQW
(IHFWHOH PXOWLFROLQLDULW
LL VXQW SURSRU LRQDOH FX LQWHQVLWDWHD SUH]HQ HL DFHVWHLD vQ UkQGXO
YDULDELOHORU H[SOLFDWLYH 9DORULOH HVWLPDWRULORU SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL VXQW DIHFWDWH DYkQG GUHSW
FRQVHFLQ
GHIRUPDUHD DFHVWRU YDORUL vQWUR DVHPHQHD P VXU vQFkW GHYLQH QHLQWHOLJLELO LQIOXHQ D
LLSRDWHILUHDOL]DW DVWIHO
GDWRULW IDSWXOXL F VHULLOH GH GDWH SULYLQG YDULDELOD HIHFW L IDFWRULL V L GHWHUPLQDQ L VXQW
DOF WXLWHGHFHOHPDLPXOWHRULGLQWUXQQXP UUHGXVGHWHUPHQLQVHUHFRPDQG LQFOXGHUHD
GHWHUPHQLVXSOLPHQWDULQ!DVWIHOvQFkWHYHQWXDOHOHDQDORJLLGDWRUDWHKD]DUGXOXLV ILHSHFkW
SRVLELOHOLPLQDWH
vQ VLWXD LD vQ FDUH GRX YDULDELOH FDX]DOH VXQW LQWHQV FRUHODWH XQD GLQWUH HOH HVWH FROLQLDU
FXFHDODOW VHSRDWHUHQXQ DODXQDGLQWUHHOHFRQVLGHUkQGXVHF YDULDELODRPLV HVWHH[SULPDW GH
FHDUH LQXW vQPRGHO
u
v
w
GDF GDWHOH VXQW SUH]HQWDWH VXE IRUP GH VHULL FURQRORJLFH VH SRW FDOFXOD GLIHUHQ HOH GH
RUGLQXO D
\ \
fx v
f e
VDXSRWILORJDULWPDWHYDORULOHOXL< ;
FDX]DWHGHSUH]HQ DWUHQGXOXLvQFDGUXOVHULLORUGHGDWH
vQVFRSXODWHQX ULLFROLQLDULW
LL
XWLOL]DUHD GH VHULL GH GDWH IRUPDWH vQ RSWLF WUDQVYHUVDO VHULL VLQFURQH SRDWH FRQVWLWXL R
PRGDOLWDWH GH GLPLQXDUH VDX FKLDU GH HOLPLQDUH D LQWHUGHSHQGHQ HL IDFWRULORU $FHDVW VLWXD LH HVWH
YDODELO vQ FD]XO vQ FDUH REVHUYDUHD VH UHIHU OD XQHDQWLRQVWDWLVWLFGHvQWUHSULQGHULMXGH HIDPLOLL
HWF &D XUPDUH D IDSWXOXL F GDWHOH VXQW FXOHVH SHQWUX DFHHDL SHULRDG GH WLPS SH ED]D DFHOHDL
PHWRGRORJLL GDU vQ FRQGL LL GLIHULWH GH PDQLIHVWDUH D IDFWRULORU H[LVW DQVH PDL PDUL FD LSRWH]D
SULYLQGLQGHSHQGHQ DIDFWRULORUV ILHUHJ VLW vQVHWXOGHGDWH
(OLPLQDUHD IHQRPHQXOXL GH PXOWLFROLQLDULWDWH SRDWH IL UHDOL]DW FX DMXWRUXO XUP WRDUHORU
SURFHGHH
0HWRGH DSULRULFH VXQW XWLOL]DWH vQ YHGHUHD VHOHFW ULL L RUGRQ ULLLQWURGXFHULLvQPRGHOD
YDULDELOHORUH[SOLFDWLYH8QDGLQWUHDFHVWHPHWRGHHVWHPHWRGDUHJUHVLHLLWHUDWLYHFDUHFRQVW vQ
FDOFXOXO PDWULFHL FRHILFLHQ LORU GH FRUHOD LH OLQLDU FRUHVSXQ] WRUL YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH
$FHDVW PDWULFH UH]XOW vQ XUPD HOLPLQ ULL OLQLHL \ L FRORDQHL \ GLQ PDWULFHD FRHILFLHQ LORU GH
FRUHOD LHOLQLDU FRUHVSXQ] WRDUHPRGHOXOXLUHVSHFWLY
} {|
| z}
U| y }
}~| z
U
=
|y|z
|}
||z
}~|
U| z |
U| y |
U
||y
U
U
}~| y
U| z | y
U
nm l
PD[ U
M
)LH U
\[
= PD[ U
M
\[
\[
=D
\
= D
+ D [
[
+D
+X
XQGH M = N
PD[ U
M
)LH [
= D
+ D [
+ D [
+X
M = N LVHLQWURGXFHvQPRGHOYDULDELODFHDPDLSXWHUQLFFRUHODW FX
6HFDOFXOHD] U
LVHFRQWLQX SURFHGHXO
7RDWHDFHVWHPRGHOHRE LQXWHSHSDUFXUVVHWHVWHD] FXDMXWRUXOWHVWHORUFXQRVFXWHWL)
\ [
< 5
\ [
\ [
[
FUHWHUHSURJUHVLY DFRHILFLHQWXOXLGHGHWHUPLQDUH5
0HWRGDUHJUHVLHLSDVFXSDVGHVFHQGHQW
\ =D
(V
+D [
) (V
+D
) (V
+ + D
(V
+X
SUHVXSXQHFRQVWUXLUHDPRGHOXOXL
\ [ [
SHQWUX FDUH VH FDOFXOHD] DEDWHULOH FRUHVSXQ] WRDUH SDUDPHWULORU 9RU IL HOLPLQDWH GLQ PRGHO DFHOH
YDULDELOHSHQWUXFDUHVHUHDOL]HD] FRQGL LD
_ D
V
@
'XS FH VH HOLPLQ YDULDELOHOH SHQWUX FDUH VH YHULILF FRQGL LD UHVSHFWLY VH FRQVWUXLHWH
PRGHOXO QXPDL vQ IXQF LH GH YDULDELOHOH U PDVH FRQVLGHUDWH FD DYkQG R LQIOXHQ
FRQIRUPSDVXOXL
)LH D
VHPQLILFDWLY
+ D [
+ D [
+ + D
+X
\ [
[
[
6H FRPSDU FHL GRL FRHILFLHQ L GH GHWHUPLQDUH L WUHEXLH V UH]XOWH F HL VXQW DSUR[LPDWLY
DOPRGHOXOXL
2 DOW FDWHJRULH GH PHWRGH FDUH SRDWH IL IRORVLWH OD VHOHF LD YDULDELOHORU IDFWRULDOH VXQW
PHWRGHOH DSRVWHULRULFH FDUH FRQVWDX vQ FRQVWUXLUHD GH PRGHOH HFRQRPHWULFH FX WRDWH YDULDELOHOH
H[SOLFDWLYHLDFFHSWDUHDDFHVWRUDFDYDULDELOHH[RJHQHVHPQLILFDWLYHQXPDLGXS YHULILFDUHDWHVWHORU
VWDWLVWLFH FDUH YDOLGHD] DFHDVW LSRWH] $FHVWH PHWRGH VH ED]HD] SH GHILQLUHD L LQWHUSUHWDUHD
JUDGXOXL GH SHUIRUPDQ
=-
=-
9
9
QDFHVWVHQVVHFRQVWUXLHWHPRGHOXO
0
= \ +X
YDULDELODUH]LGXDO 9
W
=E
=9
+E [
(\
W
= \
+X
- \
<
W
W
=E
+E [
M
0
T
W
=E
+ + E
+X
TW
TW
X
N
W
=E
+ + E
XQGHM
W = Q Q
+X
NW
NW
TNN
X
= \
M
0
W
= \
-<
T
W
-<
N
W
(\
-<
QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH
JOREDO DLXQXLPRGHOIRUPDWGLQTNYDULDELOH
H[SOLFDWLYHvQUDSRUWFXPRGHOXOLQL LDO0
=-
= -
M
5
=-
=
M
5
=-
N
E FRHILFLHQ LLGHSHUIRUPDQ
= -
-9
9
= -
ID
GH0
$FHDVW UHOD LH SRDWH IL IRORVLW vQ FD]XO UHJXOHL GH DFFHSWDUH D LQWURGXFHULL VDX H[FOXGHULL
YDULDELOHL[
T
= -
9
9
X
9DULDELOD[
T +
T +
=-
X
HVWHVHPQLILFDWLY GDF 5
W =
W =
(< W
> 5
5
T +
> 5
9
<9
GHRDUHFH D IRVW FRQVWUXLW SH ED]D UDSRUWXOXL GH FRUHOD LH 5
FDUHDIRVWFDOFXODWFXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL
(\
- \
- \
W =
-
W =
(\
- \
-<
LQH VHDPD GH GRX QHDMXQVXUL FDUH DSDU vQ FD]XO PRGHOXOXL PXOWLIDFWRULDO
$FHVWD QX
UHVSHFWLY GH QXP UXO GH REVHUYD LL SH ED]D F URUD DX IRVW HVWLPD L SDUDPHWULL PRGHOXOXL L GH
QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUIDFWRULDOHDOHPRGHOXOXL
3HQWUX HOLPLQDUHD DFHVWRU YLFLL DOH UDSRUWXOXL GH FRUHOD LH FODVLF DFHVWD VH vQORFXLHWH FX
UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LHDMXVWDWFRUHFWDWDF UXLUHOD LHGHFDOFXOHVWHXUP WRDUHD
5
-
Q -
- 5
Q - N
)
2%6 1XP UXO REVHUYD LLORU WUHEXLH V ILH PDL PDUH GHFkW QXP UXO SDUDPHWULORU PRGHOXOXL
Q N +
'HDVHPHQHDVHREVHUY F vQFD]XOXQXLPRGHOXQLIDFWRULDON
FRUHOD LHVXQWHJDOHQFD]XOvQFDUHN! 5
>5
FHOHGRX UDSRUWXULGH
PXOWLFROLQLDULW
8QPRGHOPXOWLIDFWRULDOHVWHGHIRUPD
\
3H ED]D FHORU [ YDULDELOH IDFWRULDOH VH SRW FRQVWUXL XUP WRDUHOH PRGHOH FDUDFWHUL]DWH SULQ
VXPDS WUDWHORUDEDWHULORU
0 \
VDXSULQUDSRUWXULOHGHFRUHOD LH 5
0 \
5
0 \
5
5
)
5
0 \
Q PRG ORJLF LQWURGXFHUHD XQHL YDULDELOH IDFWRULDOH vQWUXQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF HVWH
MXVWLILFDW GDF
SX
-5
!SX
< 5
!
K!SX
< K< 5
!
K!SX
< K< 5
3H ED]D FHORU GRX UHOD LL DOHJHUHD FHOXL PDL EXQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF VH SRDWH IDFH SH ED]D
XUP WRDUHORUUHVWULF LL
ILH
ILH
PLQ
PD[ 5
XQGHN
(
= N
L 0 T N N ! T QX VXQW HYLGHQWH DFFHSWDUHD XQXLD GLQWUH PRGHOH VH SRDWH UHDOL]D FX DMXWRUXO
WHVWXOXL)LVKHU6QHGHFRUFDUHFRQVW
vQYHULILFDUHDLQHJDOLW
GDF )
-9
# &
# %
Q - N -
N -T
" %
-9
" &
" %
LL
Q - N -
N -T
" %
' !
!
< )
a Y
Y
DWXQFL GLIHUHQ HOH GLQWUH FHOH GRX PRGHOH QX VXQW VHPQLILFDWLYH
9-
95
=
* / X
=
2 7 X8
/0
8
W = Q Q
M
TNN
Y :
NTY;
QXP UXOJUDGHORUGHOLEHUWDWH
QNY : LY;
Q FD]XO vQ FDUH PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF VH XWLOL]HD] vQ VSHFLDO OD SURJQR]D IHQRPHQHORU
HFRQRPLFHHVWHQHFHVDU YHULILFDUHDVWDELOLW
LLvQWLPSDOHJLW
LLGHHYROX LHDIHQRPHQXOXLDQDOL]DW
vQ IXQF LH GH HYROX LD IDFWRULORU V L $FHVW OXFUX VH SRDWH UHDOL]D FX DMXWRUXO WHVWXOXL &KRZ FDUH VH
DSOLF DVWIHO
ILHPRGHOXOXQLIDFWRULDOLQL LDO
\ <>=
W
W =
\ :>=
\;B=
W =
Q
Q
Q
Q
W
W =
W
W = Q
9
+ Q 9
W
+
X
X
=9
W
W =
W = Q
X
W
+
+9
X
+G 'DF 9
J I
@9
UH]XOW F OHJLWDWHD GH HYROX LH D IHQRPHQXOXL HVWH VWDELO vQ WLPS
LDUPRGHOXOSRDWHILXWLOL]DWvQYHGHUHDHIHFWX ULLSURJQR]HL
+ K 'DF 9
J I
LDUPRGHOXOQXYDSXWHDILXWLOL]DWvQYHGHUHDHIHFWX ULLSURJQR]HL
$SOLFDUHDWHVWXOXL)LVKHU6QHGHFRUFRQVW vQ
GDF )
R N
9
-9
O
R
Q - (N + )
N +
T Q P
M QP
L
N
QXP UXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH
6LPXODUHLSURJQR]
'DF vQ XUPD HWDSHL GH YHULILFDUH D VHPQLILFD LHL PRGHOXOXL DX IRVW VDWLVI FXWH FRQGL LLOH
FHUXWHGHWHVWHOHLLSRWH]HOHSUH]HQWDWHPDLVXVDWXQFLVHSRDWHDILUPDIDSWXOF PRGHOXOHVWHFRUHFW
VSHFLILFDW LGHQWLILFDW L HVWLPDW L FD DWDUH SRDWH IL XWLOL]DW OD SURJQR]D L VLPXODUHD IHQRPHQXOXL
DQDOL]DW
Q FD]XO XQXL PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO GDF VH FXQRVF YDORULOH YDULDELOHORU IDFWRULDOH ;U SHQWUX
PRPHQWXO QY SURJQR]D YDULDELOHL HQGRJHQH VH UHDOL]HD] SH ED]D XQXL LQWHUYDO GH vQFUHGHUH
Y\
Z
<
X V
b a_
g f e
3< i
-W
` h
^ ch
b a_
g f e
< i
i ` h
+W
` h
^ ch
] = - a
XQGH
\jlknm
-<
YDORDUHDUHDO DYDULDELOHL\vQPRPHQWXOGHSURJQR] Q + Y
s prq
DMXWRUXOUHOD LHL
<w
x v
= E
+ E
[w
x v {
u
+ E
[w
x v z
u
K + E t
[w
x v t
u
XQGH
}
}
= ; % = ; ( ; ;
(;
<
[
;
<
Q +Y
Q +Y
M
Q +Y N
[ SHQWUX
PRPHQWXO Q + Y
W
YDULDELOD DOHDWRDUH 6WXGHQW VDX YDULDELOD QRUPDO ] GDF Q! SUHOXDW GLQ WDEHOXO
+ ;
] UHSUH]LQW
DYDULDELOHLHQGRJHQH<FDUHH[SULP HURDUHDGHSUHYL]LXQH
(URDUHD GH SUHYL]LXQH V
HVWH FX DWkW PDL PLF FX FkW QXP UXO GH REVHUYD LL YD IL PDL
FXFkWGLVSHUVLLOHYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQH; YRUILPDLPDULLFXFkWGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHLUH]LGXDOHV
HVWHPDLPLF
'LVSHUVLD YDULDELOHL UH]LGXDOH V
YD IL FX DWkW PDL PLF FX FkW PRGHOXO HFRQRPHWULF YD
H[SOLFD R SDUWH WRW PDL PDUH GLQ YDULD LD YDULDELOHL SURJQR]DWH < VDX FX FkW UDSRUWXO GH FRUHOD LH
5
YDDYHDRYDORDUHPDLDSURSLDW GH
([HPSOXGHUH]ROYDUHDXQXLPRGHOOLQLDUPXOWLIDFWRULDO
8Q vQWUHSULQ] WRU FXPS U XQ PDJD]LQ DYkQG R VXSUDID
ORFXLHVF vQ MXU GH GH IDPLOLL 2 VRFLHWDWH GH FRQVXOWDQ
LQIRUPHD] F FLIUD GH DIDFHUL D PDJD]LQHORU FX SURILOXO UHVSHFWLY GHSLQGH OLQLDU GH VXSUDID D
FRPHUFLDO D PDJD]LQXOXL L GH QXP UXO IDPLOLLORU GLQ FDUWLHUXO UHVSHFWLY FDUH GH UHJXO FXPS U
GHODPDJD]LQXOFHOPDLDSURSLDWQDFHVWVHQVvLSXQHODGLVSR]L LHLQIRUPD LLOHUHIHULWRDUHODDFHWL
LQGLFDWRULvQUHJLVWUDWHODPDJD]LQHDYkQGDFHODLSURILO
7DEHOXO
1XP UGHIDPLOLLVXWH
6HFHUH
E6 VHHVWLPH]HSDUDPHWULLPRGHOHORUFRQVWUXLWHODSXQFWXOD
F 'LQ FHOH WUHL PRGHOH XWLOL]DWH SHQWUX GHVFULHUHD GHSHQGHQ HL FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL GH FHL GRL
G 6 VH HVWLPH]H FLIUD GH DIDFHUL SH FDUH R SRDWH RE LQH vQWUHSULQ] WRUXO GDF YD FXPS UD
PDJD]LQXOUHVSHFWLY
H WLLQG F SHQWUX IXQF LRQDUHD PDJD]LQXOXL FKHOWXLHOLOH OXQDUH VXQW vQ MXU GH PLOOHL
5H]ROYDUH
D 'HVFULHUHD HFRQRPHWULF D OHJ WXULL GLQWUH FHOH WUHL YDULDELOH \ FLIUD GH DIDFHUL [
= I
([ )
+ X
= I
([ )
+ X
= I
[ )
( [
QXP UXOXLGHIDPLOLL
VXSUDIH HLFRPHUFLDOH
+ X
DPELORUIDFWRUL
,GHQWLILFDUHD IXQF LLORU GH UHJUHVLH D SULPHORU GRX PRGHOH VH UHDOL]HD] FX DMXWRUXO
n
n
n
)LJXUD
n
B
)LJXUD
'HRDUHFH JUDILFHOH GH PDL VXV DUDW F OHJ WXUD GLQWUH \ L [ UHVSHFWLY \ L [ SRDWH IL
DSUR[LPDW FXRGUHDSW PRGHOHOHGHPDLVXVGHYLQ
\
= D
+ E
[
\
\
= D
0RGHOXO HVWH XQ PRGHO PXOWLIDFWRULDO OLQLDU GHRDUHFH \ ILLQG FRUHODW OLQLDU FX [
E
[
+ E [
+ X
+
+ F [
+ X
E(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWULORUFHORUWUHLPRGHOH
= D
+ E
[
+ X
GHSURJUDPH(;&(/ED]DXUP WRDUHORUVHULLVWDWLVWLFHSUH]HQWDWHvQ7DEHOXO
7DEHOXO
1U
\
FUW
<
=
+ [
= \
- <
X
(X
- X
7RWDO
6800$5<287387
6HPQLILQG
5HJUHVVLRQ6WDWLVWLFV
0XOWLSOH5
56TXDUH
= 5
= 5
= V
$GMXVWHG
5
= 5
6TXDUH
6WDQGDUG(UURU
2EVHUYDWLRQV
= Q
$129$
GI
66
5HJUHVVLRQ
= N
5HVLGXDO
=Q-N -
7RWDO
=Q-
( <
- \)
(\
(\
- <
- \
06
= V
)
9DULDEOH
&RHIILFLHQWV
WHUPHQOLEHU
6WDQGDUG(UURU
V
V
W6WDW
(VWLPDWRULLPRGHOXOXLVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHUL LGH]HURGDF
D
V
(
L W
E
V
'HRDUHFH
D
V
GH]HUR
]HUR
*+ '
E
V
"
45 1
= < W
= > W
$ ) $&% ( "#"
/ 3 /&0 2 .#.
!
(
=
=
SDUDPHWUXO D QXHVWHVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHULW
VHPQLILFD LHGH )
= > )
=
Q IXQF LH GH XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a = L GH QXP UXO JUDGHORU GH OLEHUWDWH
= N = L Y
(Q
- )
=
> )
- 5
-
=
= Q - N - = - = VHSUHLDYDORDUHDWHRUHWLF )
6H FRQVWDW F )
= > )
J M J&K L I L I#I
J M J&K L I L I#I
=
= GHFL SHQWUX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH GH
'XUELQ:DWVRQ
G =
=
3HQWUX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a = GLQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ VH SUHLDX
&XP - G
= G = - G
QHJDWLY
3HED]DGDWHORUGHPDLVXVPRGHOXOGHYLQH
<
= + [
SR
5 =
G =
= L G
=
SR
VU T
=
VWDWLVWLFHSUH]HQWDWHvQ7DEHOXO
= D
XYX W
+ E [
+ X
XW
7DEHOXO
1U
FUW
[Z
\
<
=
+ [
^]
_R
R R
= \ -<
[a\ b `
(X
cf
-X
c fe d c
Y
6800$5<287387
6HPQLILQG
5HJUHVVLRQ6WDWLVWLFV
0XOWLSOH5
56TXDUH
= 5
= 5
$GMXVWHG
5
6TXDUH
6WDQGDUG(UURU
2EVHUYDWLRQV
hh g
= 5
=V
m n lo
= Q
$129$
GI
66
= N
=Q-N -
=Q-
5HJUHVVLRQ
5HVLGXDO
7RWDO
(<
(\
(\
- \)
x y
v
rtu s
z
| } {~
06
- <
- \
= V
=V
)
9DULDEOH
&RHIILFLHQWV
WHUPHQOLEHU
6WDQGDUG(UURU
W6WDW
'HRDUHFH
W
= > W
= > W
=
& #
=
L E VXQW VHPQLILFDWLY GLIHUL L GH ]HUR FX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH
= > )
VHPQLILFD LHGH )
& #
& #
=
)
6H FRQVWDW F )
(Q
- )
=
- 5
= > )
-
=
= GHFL SHQWUX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH GH
'XUELQ:DWVRQ
G =
=
3HQWUX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a = GLQ WDEHOD GLVWULEX LHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ VH SUHLDX
= > G
=
G
&XP
G
3HED]DGDWHORUGHPDLVXVPRGHOXOGHYLQH
<
= < - G
= + [
=
= L G
=
UH]XOW F HURULOHVXQWLQGHSHQGHQWH
5 =
G =
0RGHO HFRQRPHWULF PXOWLIDFWRULDO SULYLQG GHSHQGHQ D FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL GH VXSUDID D
=
(VWLPDUHD
SDUDPHWULORU
HIHFWXDUHDXUP WRDUHORUFDOFXOH
XQXL
PRGHO
PXOWLIDFWRULDO
= D
+E [
+ F [
+X
QHFHVLW
( )
E F
) D
-D
= PLQ \
-E [
- F [
0LQLPXO DFHVWHL IXQF LL HVWH GDW GH FDOFXOXO GHULYDWHORU SDU LDOH vQ UDSRUW FX SDUDPHWULL
PRGHOXOXL
(
(
(
)
)
)
) (D
) E
) (F
QD
)=
\
-D
= \
-D
)=
D [
-D
\
+E [
[
D
- F [
(- ) =
-E [
- F [
(-
-E [
- F [
(-
+ F
+E [
-E [
+ F
+E [
= \
+ F
= [
= [
)=
)=
9DORULOH HVWLPDWRULORU UH]XOW vQ XUPD UH]ROY ULL VLVWHPXOXL GH HFXD LL DOH F UXL QHFXQRVFXWH
VXQW FHL WUHL SDUDPHWULL D E F LDU YDORULOH WHUPHQLORU VLVWHPXOXL GH HFXD LL VH RE LQ SH ED]D
WDEHOXOXLFRORDQHOH
7DEHOXO
1U
FUW
[
\
\
\
<
=
+ [
= \
-<
(VWLPDUHDSDUDPHWUXOXL D
+ [
7RWDO
=
[
[
[
[
[
[
2 FDOH PDL UDSLG GH HVWLPDUH D SDUDPHWULORU VH UHDOL]HD] XWLOL]kQG FDOFXOXO PDWULFHDO
= L F
VLVWHPXOGHHFXD LLGHPDLVXVGHYHQLQG
(;
; ) % =
(;
< )
QPXO LQGODVWkQJDH[SUHVLDFX ( ; ; )
( ; ; )
( ; ; )%
( ; ; )
RE LQHP
( ; < )
5H]XOW F
D
% =
$
$
E
F
(;
; )
(;
< )
XQGHPDWULFLOHVXQWGHIRUPD
; =
< =
8 =
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
6HFDOFXOHD] PDWULFLOH
( ; ; ) =
( ; < ) =
; ;
=
(;
; )
-
-
-
-
-
-
=
( ; ; )
(;
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
= -
-
-
-
-
&DOFXOkQGSURGXVXO
( ; ; ) ( ; < )
% =
D
= E =
&DOFXOXO FHORUODO L LQGLFDWRUL DL PRGHOXOXL PXOWLIDFWRULDO VH YD IDFH XWLOL]kQG XUP WRDUHOH
UHOD LL
V
UH]LGXDOHX$
F12
, -
V * +
Q - N -
(\
,) + ( +
= V' + F
.
.
%&
)
!
Q - N -
= HOHPHQWXOVLWXDWSHGLDJRQDODSULQFLSDO DPDWULFHLLQYHUVH ( ; ; )
5 6
V ; 8 : 8 9 8
( 7 7
= V< 8
(<>
5 =
( \>
- \)
G =
E B
(X
B ? D
- X E B
( \>
- <>
- \)
V; 8
56
:
= V 8
56
V 9 8
3 4
=
UDSRUWXOGHFRUHOD LH
D
YDORDUHD YDULDELOHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ FDOFXODW vQ YHGHUHD
WHVW ULLLSRWH]HLGHLQGHSHQGHQ
-
( \>
56
- \)
E
X B
B ? C
X
HVWLPD LLOHGLVSHUVLLORUSDUDPHWULORU D /0
E /0
F / XQGH
-<
DHURULORU
9HULILFDUHD VHPQLILFD LHL DFHVWHLD VH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO WDEHOHL 'XUELQ:DWVRQ GLQ FDUH VH
H[WUDJ YDORULOH G F
= L G G
= vQ IXQF LH GH XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH a = GH QXP UXO
5H]ROYDUHD PRGHOXOXL VD UHDOL]DW FX DMXWRUXO SURJUDPXOXL (;&(/ FRQGXFkQG OD DILDUHD
XUP WRDUHORUUH]XOWDWH
6800$5<287387
6HPQLILQG
5HJUHVVLRQ6WDWLVWLFV
0XOWLSOH5
56TXDUH
$GMXVWHG
5
= 5
= 5I
6TXDUH
6WDQGDUG(UURU
2EVHUYDWLRQV
= 5
H
= VJ K
= Q
$129$
66
5HJUHVVLRQ
GI
= N
M -\ )
= (\
5HVLGXDO
=Q-N -
7RWDO
=Q-
U
= (\ U - \
= (\ [
06
)S
VW
= VX Y
)
= VNPQ O
)
-\
R
9DULDEOH
&RHIILFLHQWV
6WDQGDUG(UURU
W6WDW
WHUPHQOLEHU
\
D
V^_ ]
W c ab `
[ dfe
g
E
Vij h
Wn lm k
[ope
\
F
V rs q
W v tu h
9DULDEOH
0HDQYDOXH
6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ
IDPLOLL
[w
s xfy
VXSUFRP
s {}|
&$
z
\
s ~
= < W
= > W
= > W
= > G
= L
= < - G
LQGHSHQGHQWH
'HRDUHFH
= > )
(\
- \)
(\
- <
( <
(<
( \
- \)
- \)
- \)
DIDFHUL
IDFWRULVHPQLILFDWLYLDLFLIUHLGHDIDFHULGHRDUHFHHVWLPDWRULLORUVXQWVHPQLILFDWLYGLIHUL LGH]HURL
FRUHFWLGHQWLILFD LGHRDUHFHPRGHOXOH[SOLF FHDPDLPDUHSDUWHGLQYDULD LDFLIUHLGHDIDFHUL
> W
F
V
> W
L [ QX VXQW FRUHODWH OLQLDU 'DF DFHVWHD DU IL IRVW FRUHODWH OLQLDU SXWHUQLF DWXQFL XQXO GLQWUH
HVWLPDWRUL DU IL IRVW QHVHPQLILFDWLY FHHD FH vQVHDPQ F XQD GLQWUH FHOH GRX YDULDELOH WUHEXLH
HOLPLQDW GLQPRGHO
3ULQ XWLOL]DUHD XQXL PRGHO OLQLDU PXOWLIDFWRULDO FHL GRL HVWLPDWRUL E L F UHSUH]LQW
\
[
GH D QXP UXOXL GH IDPLOLL FLIUD GH DIDFHUL D PDJD]LQXOXL YD VXIHUL R PRGLILFDUH GH
PLO OHL LDU GDF VXSUDID D FRPHUFLDO VH YD PRGLILFD FX P FLIUD GH DIDFHUL YD VXSRUWD R
PRGLILFDUHGHPLOOHL
&DDWDUHPRGHOXOFDUHGHVFULHOHJ WXUDGLQWUHIHQRPHQHOHDQDOL]DWHHVWH
<
G =
5 =
=
F $OHJHUHD FHOXL PDL EXQ PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF GLQ FHOH WUHL PRGHOH DQDOL]DWH VH YD IDFH SH
ED]DWDEHOXOXLGHPDLMRVvQUDSRUWFXPRGHOXOLQL LDO 0
7DEHOXO
6LPEROXO
9DULD LD
PRGHOXOXL
6WUXFWXUDPRGHOXOXL
QHH[SOLFDW GH
(O
(O
= )
(O
= )
\
= D
= \ + X
+ E [
+ X
(O
= )
= D
<
+ E [
(O
= )
<
= D
+ X
= + [
+ E [
+ F [
+ X
= + [
( \
+ [
- \)
(\
- <
(\
(\
- <
=
= -
= -
=
=
=
5
=
=
5
=
= -
SDU LDO
GHSHUIRUPDQ
= -
-<
&RHILFLHQ LL
=
9
=-
=
= -
=
= 9
=
SHUIRUPDQ
PRGHO
=
&RHILFLHQ LLGH
= -
=
= -
9
9
=
1RW
O = P P = QXP UXOPRGHOHORUFRQVWUXLWH P =
PD[ 5
= > 5
H[SOLF PDL ELQH YDULD LD FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL \ vQ IXQF LH GH VXSUDID D FRPHUFLDO [
FRPSDUD LHFXPRGHOXO 0
"
vQ
H[HPSOX PRGHOXO 0
FX 0
6QHGHFRU
DOHJHUHD FHOXL PDL EXQ PRGHO VH IDFH FX DMXWRUXO WHVWXOXL )LVKHU
8WLOL]DUHDDFHVWXLWHVWvQDFHVWFD]FRQVW vQ
FDOFXODUHDYDORULLHPSLULFHDYDULDELOHL )
'
(+
2
/0
-9
N - T
-9
N - T
(*
7
45
-9
2
/1
7
46
)*
Q - N -
9
2
/1
Q - N -
7
46
-,
-9
&,
)*
-9
-,
+9
,
)+
N - T
,
)*
Q - N -
-
- -
-
=
'HRDUHFH
= N - T Y
= Q - N - UHVSHFWLY
=
= > )
[ vQ PRGHOXO
DFHVWHLYDULDELOHDVXSUDYDULDELOHL\HVWHVHPQLILFDWLY
G =
LJ
+ [
KJ
5 =
ON M
=
G 'HRDUHFH VD FRQVWDWDW F PRGHOXO 0
DFHVWD YD IL XWLOL]DW vQ YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL YDORULORU SUREDELOH DOH FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL SHQWUX
vQWUHSULQ] WRUXO UHVSHFWLY Q DFHVW FD] GDF [
HJDO FX
V
QSU R
<
$X
= D [
QTU R W Y
$X
+ E [
QTU R W Z
= [
$X
+ F [
= [
QTU R W [
XQGH
<
= YDORDUHDUHDO DYDULDELOHL\vQPRPHQWXOGHSURJQR] Q + Y
XQGH
_
\T^ ]
`Tb a
f
cTe d
<
n i m kl
n i m kj
= [
= ; % = ; ( ; ; )
gh
; <
[ M = SHQWUXPRPHQWXO Q + Y
p
t qsr
<
Q YHGHUHD HVWLP ULL LQWHUYDOXOXL GH vQFUHGHUH SHQWUX DFHDVW YDORDUH SUREDELO HVWH QHFHVDU
FDOFXODUHDGLVSHUVLHLDFHVWHLYDORULFXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL
~
u xz| { y
= V
[ +
; ( ; ; )
= + (
=
}
w]
) -
-
-
- =
-
-
,QWHUYDOXO GH vQFUHGHUH D SURJQR]HL FLIUHL GH DIDFHUL HVWLPDW FX XQ SUDJ GH VHPQLILFD LH
a = SHQWUXFDUHYDORDUHDOXL W
YDFDOFXODFXDMXWRUXOUHOD LHL
? =
-W V
<
+W V
= VH
=-a
3<
] =
YDILFXSULQV vQWUHLPLOLRDQHOHL
( U ) HVWHHJDO
HWLLQGF UDWDSURILWXOXL
XQGH
&$ = FLIUDGHDIDFHUL\
&7 = FKHOWXLHOLWRWDOH
3H ED]D GDWHORU SUREOHPHL UH]XOW F DQWUHSUHQRUXO SHQWUX D RE LQH XQ SURILW PDL PLF VDX
HJDO
FX
WUHEXLH
&$ - &7
&7
V
FX
UHDOL]H]H
8WLOL]kQGPRGHOXOHFRQRPHWULF 0
R
FLIU
GH
DIDFHUL
GH
FHO
PXOW
)
PLO
OHL
= PLOOHLLFD
3 (< ) = 3 W
= 3 (W -) = 3 (W ) =
Q FRQFOX]LH DQWUHSUHQRUXO DUH DQVH GH D QX UHDOL]D XQ SURILW GH DFHDVWD
UHSUH]HQWkQG ULVFXO V X GH D QXL UHDOL]D GH]LGHUDWXO SURSXV vQ XUPD FXPS U ULL PDJD]LQXOXL
UHVSHFWLY
I (VWLPDUHD SDUDPHWULORU XQXL PRGHO HFRQRPHWULF PXOWLIDFWRULDO OLQLDU SH ED]D PDWULFHL
)LHPRGHOXO
1RW PFX
= E
\ = E
= [
= [
+E [
+ E [
- \ = E
= \
+E [
+ E [
(
[
- \
- [
- [
- [
+X
+ E
(
[
- [
+ X
0RGHOXOFRQVWUXLWSHED]DDEDWHULORUFHQWUDWHDOHYDULDELOHORUGHYLQH
\
= E [
+E [
+X
XQGH
FRY( \[
FRY( \[
( )
9 = FRY( [ \ )
FRY ( [ \ )
FRY( [ [
FRY [ [
)
( )
( )
\
HVWHGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL\
FRY \ [
(\
)=
- \) [
- [
=
=
HVWHGLVSHUVLDYDULDELOHL [
M =
7DEHOXO
1U
FUW
= [
- [ [
= [
- [
= \
- \
7RWDO
= (s
=
= s
= s
=
=
=
=
=
FRY( \[
FRY( [ [
FRY( \[
)=
)=
=
=
=
=
9 =
'LVSXQkQGGHPDWULFHD9HVWLPDWRULL E
XQGH
E
9
= E
9
(- )
= E
M = N
9
LFRORDQD [
9
= GHWHUPLQDQWXO PDWULFHL YDULDQ HORU L FRYDULDQ HORU GLQ FDUH VH HOLPLQ OLQLD \
LFRORDQD\
(- )
E =
E
(- )
= -
=
-
=
E
= \ - E [ - E [
E
=
0DWULFHD FRHILFLHQ LORU GH FRUHOD LH OLQLDU VLPSO D YDULDELOHORU SH ED]D UHOD LHL VH
E
GHILQHWH
U !
5 = U!
U "
XQGH
U+ & * &
-,
\ ( [()
(\ (
5 =
!
U "$
"
U!#
Qs + & s * &
,
U "
\ ( [ ()
'
([ ( )
%
&XDMXWRUXODFHVWHLPDWULFLHVWLPDWRULL E/1. 0 3
E574 6 9
XQGH
5 => <
5 @@
= E8
'
( -)
8 : ;
556 9
s 5
555
s 6 9
= E2 VHSRWFDOFXODDVWIHO
= GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHL5GLQFDUHVDHOLPLQDWOLQLD\LFRORDQD [ ?
= GHWHUPLQDQWXOPDWULFHL5GLQFDUHVDHOLPLQDWOLQLD\LFRORDQD\
EB =
(- )A
=
ED
(- )
=
1RW &D XUPDUH D QXPHURDVHORU vQPXO LUL L URWXQMLUL DX DS UXW PLFL DEDWHUL vQWUH YDORULOH
F
E
=
%,%/,2*5$),(
%DOWDJL%(FRQRPHWULFV6SULQJHU%HUOLQ
*LUDXG5&KDL[1eFRQRPpWULH38)3DULV
*UHHQH+:(FRQRPHWULF$QDO\VLV0DFPLOODQ3XEOLVKLQJ&RPSDQ\1HZ<RUN
*XMDUDWL51%DVLF(FRQRPHWULFV
GIH
HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN
*XMDUDWL51(VVHQWLDOVRI(FRQRPHWULFV0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN
-RKQVWRQ-(FRQRPHWULF0HWKRGV
GIH
HG0F*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN
/DEURXVVH&,QWURGXFWLRQDOpFRQRPpWULH'XQRG3DULV
0DGGDOD*6,QWURGXFWLRQWR(FRQRPHWULFV
GIH
HG0F0LOODQ&R1HZ<RUN
3LQG\FN 5 6 5XELQIHOG ' 6 (FRQRPHWULF 0RGHOV DQG (FRQRPLF )RUHFDVWV
*UDZ+LOO1HZ<RUN
9DQJUHYHOLQJKH*eFRQRPpWULH+HUPDQQ&ROOHFWLRQ0pWKRGHV3DULV
JKH
HG 0F