Household Economic Model

An Economic Model of Household Income Dynamics,
with an Application to Poverty Dynamics among

American Women
Simon M Burgess
and
Carol Propper
CASEpaper
CASE/9
July 1998
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Simon M Burgess
Carol Propper
All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two

paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission
provided that full credit, including notice, is given to the
source.
Editorial Note
Simon Burgess is a Reader and Carol Propper is a Professor in the
Department of Economics, University of Bristol, and both are associates
of CASE.
Acknowledgements
Funding was provided by the ESRC under grant R000235144. Excellent
research assistance was provided by Arnstein Aassve. We are grateful
for comments from Barbara Wolfe, Stephen Jenkins, and seminar
participants at the LSE, the University of Warwick, Bristol and Oxford.
All remaining errors are our own.
Abstract
The rise in inequality and poverty is one of the most important economic
and social issues in recent times. But in contrast to the literature on
individual earnings inequality, there has been little work modelling (as
opposed to documenting) household income dynamics. This is largely
because of the difficulties created by the fact that on top of the human
capital issues that arise in personal earnings, individuals are continually
forming, dissolving and reforming household units. This paper proposes
a framework for modelling household income dynamics. it emphasises
the role of household formation and dissolution, and labour market
participation. It allows standard economic theory to address the issues
of household, as distinct from individual, income and poverty dynamics.
We illustrate this framework with an application to poverty rates among
young women in the US. We use this model to analyse differences in
poverty experiences, particularly between black and white women.
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Table 1(a): Poverty Rates of Blacks and Whites

US Aggregate Data
Numbers Below Poverty Line in 1995
Number (000s)
36,425
PERSONS
White
24,423
White: Not of Hispanic Origin
16,267
Black
9,872
Asian and Pacific Islander
1,411
Hispanic Origin
8,574
FAMILIES
White
White: Not of Hispanic Origin
Black
Asian and Pacific Islander
Hispanic Origin
7,532
4,994
3,384
2,127
264
1,695
percent
13.8
11.2
8.5
29.3
14.6
30.3
10.8
8.5
6.4
26.4
12.4
27.0
FAMILY TYPE
Married Couple
2982
5.6
White
2443
5.1
Black
314
8.5
Female Householder, no
4057
32.4
husband present
White
2200
26.6
Black
1701
45.1
Source: Poverty in the United States, Current Population Reports, Consumer Income P60194. US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Table 1(b) : Poverty Rates of Black and White Women

NLSY Data
OVERALL
AGE:
Poverty Rate (%):

Black Women
38.8
14
18
22
26
30
34
White Women
10.0
44.1
44.3
41.1
37.0
35.5
28.4
10.8
12.1
12.6
9.5
8.3
9.2
77.2
37.1
15.4
28.0
10.1
3.1
43.3
15.1
52.5
11.3
4.1
22.0
0
19.7
1
33.2
2
38.1
3
48.2
Sample number
1129
Averaged over 1979 - 1992, Weighted
*
Poverty Rate at age 28
5.4
6.2
8.5
14.9
2452
EDUCATION LEVEL*:
High school drop out
High school graduate
College Graduate
MARITAL STATUS*:
Never Married
Married
Separated/Divorced
NUMBER OF CHILDREN*:
Table 1(c): Poverty Transitions and Durations by Race

Poverty Rate (%):
Number of years in poverty*

Number of years in poverty of
those having some poverty
Mean inflow rate (% per year)
Mean outflow rate (% per year)
Mean duration of first spell (years)
*
Blacks
(Men and
Women)
3.8
6.0
Whites
(Men and
Women)
1.2
3.2
11.7
23.4
2.46
4.8
45.4
1.56
Out of a maximum of 13 in the window

Source: NLSY, Burgess and Propper [12]
Table 2: Descriptive Statistics for Earnings States
A: Not Working
B: Working, Single, No kids
C: Working, Single, Some kids
D: Working, Married, No kids
E: Working, Married, Some kids
Total
(a) Black Women

Overall
Freq
%
3521
25.17
2911
20.81
3683
26.33
964
6.89
2909
20.80
13988
100
Between
Freq
%
747
52.87
671
47.49
800
56.62
340
24.06
646
45.72
3204
226.75
Within
%
64.06
67.68
60.47
46.57
58.01
60.85
A: Not Working
B: Working, Single, No kids
C: Working, Single, Some kids
D: Working, Married, No kids
E: Working, Married, Some kids
Total
(b) White Women

Overall
Freq
%
4961
16.51
7806
25.97
2243
7.46
6169
20.52
8878
29.54
30057
100
Between
Freq
%
1324
40.63
2016
61.86
792
24.30
1892
58.05
1867
57.29
7891
242.13
Within
%
54.94
62.34
43.03
49.06
61.27
55.73
Note: Numbers are unweighted, because the use of weights in a between/within context is
problematic. Weighted tabulation for the overall N*T cross-section produced very similar
numbers.
Table 3a: Marriage and Divorce Transitions

Probit Estimates of
Becoming Married
Variables
Black
Probit Estimates of
Remaining Married
White
Black
White
Earnings(t-1) ($000)
0.335
-0.608***
-0.410
-0.532*
Family/Spouse Income
0.018***
0.031**
0.067***
0.050***
(t-1) ($000)
Employed(t-1)
0.218***
0.212***
-0.113
-0.118**
Education
0.026*
-0.009
-0.021
0.031***
Ill Health
0.069
0.013
-0.047
-0.050
***
kids(t-1)=0
-0.059
-0.174
kids(t-1)=1
-0.117
-0.098
kids(t-1)=2
-0.328*
-0.114
kids(t-1)=3
-0.300
-0.769
Marriage Duration=2
0.025
0.194***
Marriage Duration=3
0.177
0.249***
(MarrDur=2)*(k=1)
0.178
0.120
*
(MarrDur=2) (k=2)
0.253
0.112
0.003
0.728*
(MarrDur=2)*(k=3)
(MarrDur=3)*(k=1)
0.112
0.264**
*
(MarrDur=3) (k=2)
0.205
0.234
0.192
0.846**
(MarrDur=3)*(k=3)
State AFDC Rate
-0.061***
-0.025**
Mothers Education
-0.093**
-0.019
Fathers Education
0.062
-0.010
Both parents at age 14
0.005
0.012
0.094
0.158***
Religious Upbringing
-0.074
-0.006
0.048
0.009
***
0.008
# siblings
0.067
Age, Age squared
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
***
***
Constant
-3.899
-1.858
-1.442
0.460
LogL
-2025.632
-5043.243
-1058.375
-3182.046
N
6833
9209
3458
15473
Sample for each is at risk group; dependent variable = 1 if transition to other state made
*** p<0.001, **p<0.01, *p<0.05
Table 3b: Participation and Fertility

Bivariate Probit Estimates of Participation and Fertility
Variables
Education
Marital Status (t-1)
Age of spouse
Edn of spouse
kids(t-1)=1
kids(t-1)=2
kids(t-1)=3
Ill Health
State unemp. rate
State AFDC Rate
Lived in South at
age 14
Participation
Black
White
0.264***
0.160***
0.001
0.012*
-0.380***
-0.465***
-0.571***
-0.271***
-0.075***
0.029
-0.031
Age, age squared

Yes
Year Dummies
Yes
State Dummies
Yes
Constant
-3.875***
Correlation
-0.206***
Log Likelihood
-8818.429
N
10880
*** p<0.001, **p<0.01, *p<0.05
0.123***
-0.147***
-0.005***
-0.005
-0.609***
-0.737***
-0.922***
-0.143***
-0.027***
-0.045**
-0.048
Yes
Yes
Yes
-0.217
-0.279***
-16322.115
22935
Fertility
Variables
Black
White
Own wage
Spouses wage
Employed(t-1)
-0.289***
0.093***
-0.191***
-0.239***
0.135***
-0.172***
kids(t-1)=1
kids(t-1)=2
kids(t-1)=3
Ill Health
State unemp. rate
State AFDC Rate
0.192***
0.069
-0.020
0.079**
-0.009
0.002
0.184***
-0.243***
-0.288***
0.077***
-0.002
0.028***
MarrDur=1
MarrDur=2
MarrDur=3
0.350***
0.241***
0.148***
0.637***
0.627***
0.664***
0.015
0.021***
Trad. gender roles

Religious
Upbringing
-0.019**
-0.088**
0.010*
-0.032
Age, age squared
Yes
0.149
-0.206***
-8818.429
10880
Yes
-1.234
-0.279***
-16322.115
22935
#Sibs
Constant
Correlation
N
Table 4: Multinomial Logit Results for Earnings States Selection
Age
Age Squared
Education
MarrDur=1(t-1)
MarrDur=2(t-1)
MarrDur=3(t-1)
Some kids (t-1)
Employed (t-1)
Family Income (t1)
Ill health
State AFDC
Age Spouse
Edn Spouse
State unemp rate
In South at 14
Mothers Edn
Fathers Edn
Both parents at 14
Religious upbrg
# siblings
Trad. gender atts
Constant
N
B: Working, Single,
No kids
Black
White
**
0.640
0.972***
*
-0.011
-0.018***
0.314***
0.224***
**
-0.863
-0.987***
-0.032
-1.595***
0.236
-0.990***
***
3.645
4.410***
0.001
-0.003
C: Working, Single,
Some kids
Black
White
***
-0.475
0.187
**
0.008
-0.004
0.267***
0.105***
0.128
-0.251
0.629**
-0.341
*
0.343
-0.372***
2.121***
2.486***
***
3.111
3.332***
-0.009*
0.000
D: Working, Married,
No kids
Black
White
**
0.849
0.482***
**
-0.016
-0.010***
0.139**
0.068***
0.232
-0.143
0.500
-0.552***
0.875***
-0.274**
***
3.546
3.760***
0.000
0.000
E: Working, Married,
Some kids
Black
White
0.166
0.172
-0.005
-0.003
0.224***
0.029
0.462**
0.326***
0.672***
0.333***
***
0.690
0.300***
1.300***
1.105***
***
2.938
3.169***
0.000
0.000
-0.699***
0.019
-0.046*
0.394**
-0.175
-0.069
0.246
-0.225
-0.132***
-0.022
-12.445***
8381
-0.258***
-0.103***
-0.068***
0.241**
-0.132
0.010
0.115
-0.158
-0.065**
-0.062**
1.620
8381
-0.373*
-0.150**
0.063***
0.180***
-0.110***
0.318
-0.212
0.131
-0.035
0.051
-0.102*
0.038
-16.519***
8381
-0.324***
-0.149***
0.063***
0.142***
-0.092***
0.027
-0.078
0.043
0.024
0.086
-0.011
-0.095***
-8.062**
8381
-0.769***
-0.093*
-0.041**
-0.052
-0.513***
-0.217
0.427***
-0.006
-0.082*
0.005
-14.385***
19182
-0.117
-0.157***
-0.039**
-0.157
-0.094
0.016
0.118
0.148
-0.073**
-0.089***
-5.291*
19182
-0.422***
-0.006
0.056***
0.091***
-0.018
0.150
0.029
0.033
-0.024
0.072
-0.096***
-0.062***
-9.444***
19182
-0.079
-0.021
0.045***
0.070***
-0.017**
-0.001
0.073
0.061
0.010
-0.029
-0.047***
-0.055***
-6.469***
19182
64
Table 5: Earnings Equations Results

B: Working, Single,
No kids
Black
White
Age
-0.677
-0.747
Age Squared
0.019
0.021**
Education
-3.481***
-2.125***
***
Education squared 0.187
0.125***
Spouses wage
Kids = 2
Kids = 3
***
Ill health
-1.479
-1.455***
State unemp rate
-0.346***
-0.361***
Year dummies
Yes
Yes
State dummies
Yes
Yes
Selection Variable -4.683***
-4.397***
***
Constant
32.327
26.013***
R2
0.415
0.385
N
1380
3841
Notes: Spouses wage is a fitted value
*** p<0.001, **p<0.01, *p<0.05
C: Working, Single,
Some kids
Black
White
0.243
1.535*
0.004
-0.026*
0.814
-0.732
0.014
0.075**
***
-1.371
-1.255***
-2.136***
-2.558***
***
-1.146
-0.463
-0.243***
-0.423***
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
-2.173***
-1.969***
-8.270
-11.334
0.302
0.200
2238
1339
D: Working, Married,
No kids
Black
White
1.659
0.232
-0.020
0.001
3.071**
-1.621**
-0.071
0.099***
-0.154
0.467*
-0.669
-1.430***
-0.504***
-0.288***
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
-1.559
-6.574***
**
-42.502
11.307
0.383
0.286
513
3838
E: Working, Married,
Some kids
Black
White
-0.343
0.986**
0.012
-0.012
-1.896**
0.091
***
0.122
0.027
0.847***
0.297
-0.266
-1.902***
-1.806***
-3.625***
***
-1.669
-0.974***
-0.254***
-0.121***
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
-2.605***
-1.526***
15.704
-13.395**
0.295
0.182
1793
6190
65
Table 6: One-Step Fitted and Actual Poverty Rates

(a) By Demographic group
Marital Status (t-1):
Single:
Fitted
Actual
Married:
Fitted
Actual
Children (t-1):
No children:
Fitted
Actual
Some children:
Fitted
Actual
Total:
Fitted
Actual
Black
White
0.347
0.278
0.153
0.095
0.465
0.333
Black
0.532
0.222
White
0.273
0.213
0.165
0.075
0.467
0.376
0.352
0.300
0.354
0.282
0.193
0.108
Black
White
0.389
0.147
0.229
0.065
0.198
0.095
0.105
0.053
0.586
0.658
0.316
0.395
0.361
0.663
0.202
0.496
(b) By Lagged Poverty Status

Poverty Status and age group:
Not Poor (t-1)
19 - 25:
Fitted
Actual
26 - 30:
Fitted
Actual
Poor (t-1)
19 - 25:
Fitted
Actual
26 - 30:
Fitted
Actual
Table 7: -Step Fitted and Actual Poverty Rates

Age
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
White Women
Fitted
Actual
19.0
12.6
16.2
11.9
14.0
10.9
12.3
10.5
11.0
9.6
10.1
8.8
9.3
9.1
8.8
8.2
8.3
8.1
8.0
7.7
Black Women
Fitted
Actual
60.5
47.2
57.4
45.9
54.5
43.8
51.7
41.4
48.9
42.4
46.2
38.2
43.6
38.8
41.1
36.8
38.7
34.2
36.6
36.1
Notes: Actual data are weighted means.
Table 8: -Step Poverty Rates: The Influence of Background Variables

Fitted Poverty Rates
Age Base
20 19.02
(1)
19.03
(2)
19.02
White Women
(3)
(4)
(5)
18.59 4.62
20.95
25
10.06
10.02
10.10
9.77
11.52
9.49
14.63
29
8.03
7.99
8.07
7.41
11.19
Age Base
20 60.51
(1)
58.69
(2)
61.97
7.80
1.21
9.58
Black Women
(3)
(4)
(5)
55.12 14.04 61.28
(6)
59.62
(7)
70.51
25
40.80
51.31
40.65
47.17
45.11
56.22
29 36.60 30.83 42.46 31.36 4.64

37.71
Other columns are as base, except
(1) Family (parental) income + $10000
(2) Family (parental) income - $10000
(3) Years of education = 12
(4) Years of education = 16
(5) Did not live with both parents at age 14
(6) Did live with both parents at age 14
(7) State unemployment rate + 4 percentage points
35.30
46.25
46.22
1.76
8.52
(6)
18.35
(7)
27.31
Table 9: -Step Poverty Rates: The Influence of Initial State

Fitted Poverty Rates
White Women
Black Women
Age Base
(1)
(2)
(3)
Base
(1)
20 19.0
53.8
15.4
26.7
60.5
77.0
(2)
57.2
(3)
67.8
25
10.1
18.0
8.0
13.3
46.2
56.6
39.7
51.4
29
8.0
11.9
6.6
10.1
36.6
44.2
30.8
40.5
Other columns are as base, except

(1) Starting state is {Not Working, Single, 1 child}
(2) Starting state is {Working, Single, no children}
(3) Starting state is base with all weight (proportionately) in {Not Working} states
Table 10: -Step Poverty Rates: The Influence of Behaviour

Fitted Poverty Rates:
B = Black values used; W = White values used
Starting values
and starting states
Marriage and
Divorce
Coefficients
Fertility and
Participation
Coefficients
Earnings
Coefficients
Age
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
19.0
16.2
13.9
12.3
11.0
10.1
9.3
8.8
8.4
8.0
59.8
57.0
54.5
52.0
49.5
47.1
44.7
42.5
40.4
38.4
23.1
21.9
20.6
19.4
18.3
17.3
16.4
15.5
14.8
14.3
30.1
26.3
22.8
19.9
17.6
15.8
14.3
13.1
12.3
11.6
32.6
26.2
21.7
18.3
15.7
13.7
12.0
10.7
9.5
8.6
60.5
57.4
54.5
51.7
48.9
46.2
43.6
41.1
38.7
36.6
30.1
24.3
20.2
17.2
15.0
13.4
12.1
11.2
10.5
9.9
51.7
43.7
37.9
33.5
29.9
27.1
24.7
22.7
21.0
19.7
51.9
47.5
43.9
40.6
37.6
34.7
32.1
29.6
27.3
25.2
50.4
48.8
47.1
45.1
43.2
41.3
39.7
38.2
36.9
35.9
Table 11: Modal States

B = Black values used; W = White values used
Starting values
and starting states
Marriage and
Divorce
Coefficients
Fertility and
Participation
Coefficients
Earnings
Coefficients
Age:
swz
44%
mws
30%
swz
31%
mws
18%
swz
31%
mws
37%
swz
44%
mws
31%
swz
27%
sws
24%
swz
41%
sws
24%
swz
28%
sws
24%
29
mws
39%
mws
25%
swz
52%
swz
25%
(mws=20)
mws
29%
mws
26%
mws
28%
29
3.2%
22%
5.5%
8%
19%
20
25
swz
swz
35%
23%
mws
mws
33%
36%
(sws=11) (sws=12)
mws
mws
mws
mws
mws
47%
40%
28%
42%
44%
Percentage in states {single, not working}
5.1%
3.2%
19%
3.8%
8%
70
Figure 1: Poverty Rates and Frequencies by State

(a) Probabilities of being in states
N0N
N0Y
N1N
N1Y
.2
.15
.1
.05
0
28 27
29
32 31 30
19
20
26
21
22
23
25
24
27
28
26
29
30
32
31
N2N
21
20
22
23
24
25
19
26
31
30
28
27
32
29
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
32
27
31
30
28
29
N2Y
N3+N
N3+Y
30
31
32
27
29
28
26
25
23
22
24
21
20
19
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
19
20
Y1N
Y1Y
.2
Black Women
.15
32
30
29
28
31
27
25
24
26
23
22
.1
.05
21
24
20
19
26
27
22
28
23
29
32
25
30
31
21
20
19
0
Y0N
Y0Y
.2
.15
.1
.05
0
32
31 30
25
2426
21
27
23
2229 28
31 30
2032
29 28 27
19
Y2N
19
21
23
2220
24
25
26
19
31
28
27
3230
29
20
19
2221
24
23
31
30
29
25
27
26
32
28
Y2Y
Y3+N
Y3+Y
.2
.15
.1
.05
0
24
21
20
19
2325
21
30
24
31
28
27
32
20 2226
29
19
.05
.1
.15
.2
25
27
26
29
2830
31
32
2627
2223
.05
2425
2223
21
19
20
31
28
32
30
25
24
26
2729
23
22
20
21
.1
.15
.2
.05
32
29 3031
28
.1
.15
.2
.05
.1
.15
.2
White Women
Probabilities of being in States by Age and Race; Detail
71
Figure 1: Poverty Rates and Frequencies by State

(b) Poverty rates in states
N0N
N0Y
30
1
31
N1N
28
24
1920 23
21
25 2226
N1Y
32 27
2923
25
2428 26
22 31
20 19 21
29
27
.5
30
19
21
22
23
24
25
29 27
26
28
3132 30
19
21
20
22
23
24
26
25
31
30
29
27
28
32
32
20
0
N2N
Black Women
N2Y
21 20 31
32
N3+N
29
2627
30 28
25
24
22
1923
20
27
.5
31
30
21
22
N3+Y
23
24
32
22
262528
29
27
20
21
31
30
19
20
22
24 26
25
23
303129 28
32
19
19
24
2326
2925
28
21
27
32
0
Y0N
1
Y0Y
Y1N
31
.5
Y1Y
32
27
29 30
282526
27
24
19
23
21
22
20
24
19
22 20
28 25 21
29 26
23
31
19
29
21
25
28
20
22
24
26
27
31
23
30
32
0
Y2N
30
Y2Y
20 19
22
28
24
32
2321
27
25
30
26
29
31
32
Y3+N
Y3+Y
19
.5
27
30
21
25
22 19
24 23
32 26
31
20
28
29
20
21
23
25
26
2422
29
30
31
27
28
32
0
0
22 20
2421
25
28 26
23
30 27
29 31
32
.5
23 21
20 22
27
25 24
26
30
31
29
32 28
19
.5
.5
.5
White Women
Poverty Rates by Age, Race and State
72
Figure 2: Marriage Rates by Age and Race

Black
White
.8
.6
.4
.2
0
20
25
30
35
age
Weighted averages
Figure 3: Birth Rates by Age and Race

Black
White
.15
.1
.05
0
20
25
30
35
age
Weighted averages
Figure 4: Participation Rates by Age and Race

Black
White
.95
.9
.85
.8
.75
20
25
30
age
Weighted averages
35
Figure 5: Mean Fitted Earnings and Standard Deviation of Earnings

Residuals
Black Women
SD of Earnings Residuals
15
10
0
0
10
20
Mean Fitted Earnings
30
Each point is an individual
White Women
SD of Earnings Residuals
30
20
10
0
0
20
Mean Fitted Earnings
Each point is an individual
40
Figure 6: One-Step Actual and Fitted Poverty Rates
Fitted Poverty Rate
Actual Poverty Rate
Black
White
.6
.4
.2
0
20
25
30
35
20
age
Graphs by Race
25
30
35
Figure 7: Persistence in Fitted Poverty Status

(a) Poverty Status by Previous Poverty Status
Fitted
Actual
Fitted
.6
Actual
.8
.6
.4
.4
.2
.2
0
25
20
30
35
25
20
age
Fitted
30
35
age
Inflow Rate, Blacks
Outflow Rate, Blacks
Actual
Fitted
.4
Actual
.3
.2
.5
.1
0
25
20
30
35
25
20
age
30
35
age
Inflow Rate, Whites
Outflow Rate, Whites
(b) Box-Plot for Fitted Lifetime Proportion of time in Poverty against

Actual Lifetime Proportion of time spent poor
poortfit
1
.5
0
0
20
10
40
30
60
50
80
70
100
90
Figure 8: Fitted Poverty Rates with Black Transition Rates and White
Income Rates
Fitted, Blacks
Simulated, Blacks
Fitted, Whites
Simulated, Whites
.6
.4
.2
0
20
25
30
age
Using all Black Transition Rates
35
Figure 9: Demographic States: Base Case
Black Women, Base

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
mws
mwz
mns
mnz
s ws
s wz
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
s ns
s nz
Age
White Women, Base

100%
mws
90%
mwz
80%
70%
mns
60%
50%
mnz
40%
s ws
30%
20%
s wz
10%
s ns
Age
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
0%
s nz
Figure 10a: Different Education Level; Black Women
Education = 12
100%
mws
90%
mwz
80%
70%
mns
60%
50%
mnz
40%
s ws
30%
20%
s wz
10%
s ns
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
0%
s nz
Age
Education = 16
100%
90%
mws
80%
mwz
70%
60%
mns
50%
mnz
40%
s ws
30%
s wz
20%
s ns
10%
s nz
Age
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
0%
Fiure 10b: Different Initial State; White Women
Starting State = swz

100%
mws
90%
mwz
80%
70%
mns
60%
50%
mnz
40%
s ws
30%
20%
s wz
10%
s ns
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
0%
s nz
Age
Starting State = sns

mws
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
mwz
mns
mnz
s ws
s wz
Age
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
s ns
s nz

Household Economic Model

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Household Economic Model

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An Economic Model of Household Income Dynamics,

with an Application to Poverty Dynamics among

Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion

Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion

UK+20 7955 6679

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Table 1(a): Poverty Rates of Blacks and Whites

Table 1(b) : Poverty Rates of Black and White Women

Poverty Rate (%):

Table 1(c): Poverty Transitions and Durations by Race

Number of years in poverty*

Out of a maximum of 13 in the window

Table 2: Descriptive Statistics for Earnings States

(a) Black Women

(b) White Women

Table 3a: Marriage and Divorce Transitions

Table 3b: Participation and Fertility

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