Sunteți pe pagina 1din 29

#2 E6D:D 56 =@D =V>:E6D 7VD:4@D 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ F?

2
C6G:D:X? 2 =@D :?7@C>6D 56= =F3 56 )@>2
8?24:@ )@5CV8F6K )@5CV8F6K
6A2CE2>6?E@ 56 :6?4:2D *@4:2=6D ,?:G6CD:525 56 #2 C@?E6C2
+6>F4@ 9:=6
:C@5C:8F6KF7C@4=
%' !
? 6= 6?D2J@ D6 C6G:D2? =@D :?7@C>6D 56= =F3 56 )@>2 56 =@D 2W@D   
J  4@? 6= AC@AXD:E@ 56 AC6D6?E2C F?2 @3C2 BF6 4@?DE:EFJ6 F?@ 56 =@D 2A@CE6D
>TD C6=6G2?E6D 56 =2 E6D:D 56 =@D =V>:E6D 7VD:4@D 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ =2 4F2= 2 DF G6K
4@?DE:EFJ6 F?2 5:>6?D:X? >TD A6C@ 6?E6?56>@D BF6 >FJ :>A@CE2?E6 6? 6= 5632E6
24EF2= D@3C6 =2 DFDE6?E23:=:525 ? 6= 6?D2J@ D6 23@C52 6? F?2 AC:>6C2 A2CE6 =2
>6E@5@=@8V2 56 2?T=:D:D 56 =2D E6?56?4:2D >F?5:2=6D 6? 6= >@56=@ 8=@32= 6=23@C25@
A@C =@D :?G6DE:825@C6D 56= =F3 56 )@>2 =@D C6DF=E25@D J =2D 4@?4=FD:@?6D 56 DF
:?7@C>6 '@DE6C:@C>6?E6 6? G:DE2 56 =2D ?F>6C@D2D 4@?EC@G6CD:2D BF6 DFD4:EX =2
AF3=:424:X? 56= 6DEF5:@ 56   D6 2?2=:K2? =2D BF6 2 ?F6DEC@ ;F:4:@ D@? =2D
AC:?4:A2=6D 4CVE:42D BF6 D6 A=2?E62C@? 56D56 =2 4:6?4:2 64@?X>:42 A@C AC6DE:8:@D@D
64@?@>:DE2D J =@D 2C8F>6?E@D BF6 6? ?F6DEC2 @A:?:X? :?G2=:52? DFD 2AC64:24:@?6D

%&$&
+96 DEF5J AC6D6?ED 2 C6G:6H @7 =F3 @7 )@>6OD C6A@CED AF3=:D965 :?   
2?5  +96 AFCA@D6 @7 E96 C6G:6H :D E@ D9@H 2 C6=6G2?E H@C< @7 E96 K6C@ 8C@HE9
E96D:D H9:49 :D 2?@E96C 5:>6?D:@? 3FE 2 G6CJ :>A@CE2?E @?6 :? E96 4FCC6?E DFD
E2:?23:=:EJ 5632E6 +@ 5@ D@ :E 56D4C:36D E96 >6E9@5@=@8J FD65 :? E96 =F3 @7
)@>6OD DEF5:6D E96 C6DF=ED @7 E96:C 8=@32= >@56= 2?5 E96 4@?4=FD:@?D @7 E96:C H@C<

?G6DE:825@C 56= 6?EC@ 56 ?G6DE:824:@?6D *@4:@=X8:42D  *,)& J >:6>3C@ 56=


CFA@ 56 4@=@8V2 F>2?2 56= ?DE:EFE@ 56= $65:@ >3:6?E6 56 =2 ,?:G6CD:525 56 #2
C@?E6C2 J 56 =2 )65 36C@2>6C:42?2 56 DEF5:@D 56= 6D2CC@==@ ) 

75

76

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

*F3D6BF6?E=J :E :56?E:L6D E96 >2:? 4C:E:4D E92E 64@?@>:DED C2:D65 H96? #:>:ED E@
C@HE9 H2D AF3=:D965 :?   2?5 D@>6 C6DA@?D6D E@ E9@D6 4C:E:4D
'2=23C2D 4=2G6 *FDE6?E23:=:525 4C64:>:6?E@ 64@?X>:4@
=2D:L424:X? !# & (
 (
 (



!&$"'.!

? 6= 2W@   D6 AC@5F46 F?2 6?@C>6 4@?>@4:X? 6? =2 4@?4:6?4:2 >F?


5:2= 56 =2 4:F5252?V2 8=@32= 4@? =2 AF3=:424:X? 56= :?7@C>6 " +#" 
!# :49@ :?7@C>6 7F6 6?42C825@ A@C 6= =F3 56 )@>2 J 6=23@C25@
A@C F? 6BF:A@ >F=E:5:D4:A=:?2C 56 :?G6DE:825@C6D 56 5:DE:?E2D ?24:@?2=:
5256D 56= ?DE:EFE@ +64?@=X8:4@ 56 $2DD249FDD6ED $ + A@C DFD D:8=2D 6?
:?8=UD =:56C25@ A@C 6= ;@G6? AC@76D@C 6??:D $625@HD  ? U= D6 6DEF
5:232? =2D 42FD2D J 4@?D64F6?4:2D 2 =2C8@ A=2K@ 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 56 4:?4@
G2C:23=6D 7F?52>6?E2=6D A@3=24:X? 42A:E2= :?5FDEC:2= AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:
>6?E@D 4@?DF>@ 56 C64FCD@D J 4@?E2>:?24:X? 6 24F6C5@ 4@? -2? :6C6?
J F>>6=:?4<  =2 AF3=:424:X? 56= AC:>6C :?7@C>6 56= =F3 56 )@>2
4@:?4:5:X 4@? =2D AC:>6C2D :>T86?6D 56 =2 +:6CC2 E@>252D 56D56 6= 6DA24:@
=2D 4F2=6D 4@?EC:3FJ6C@? 2 BF6 >F492 86?E6 E@>2D6 4@?4:6?4:2 56 =2D =:>:E2
4:@?6D 56= =@3@ P? 6= AC64:D@ >@>6?E@ 6? BF6 =2 EU4?:42 A2C64V2 C6G6=2C
BF6 ?@ 923V2 =V>:E6D A2C2 6= 9@>3C6 6? =2D 5:DE2?4:2D J 6IA=@C24:@?6D D6
AFD@ 56 >2?:L6DE@ BF6 =2 56DA6?D2 56 ?F6DEC@ A6BF6W@ A=2?6E2 D6 6DE232
28@E2?5@ CTA:52>6?E6Q -2? :6C6?  F>>6=:?4<  A 
? 6= :?7@C>6 D6 23@C5232? =2D D:8F:6?E6D 4F6DE:@?6D PR@?5F46? =2D
A@=VE:42D 24EF2=6D 2 F? 7FEFC@ D@DE6?:3=6 @ 2= 4@=2AD@ R(FU A@56>@D 9246C
A2C2 4C62C F?2 64@?@>V2 9F>2?2 BF6 2A@CE6 =@ DFL4:6?E6 A2C2 E@5@DQ
$625@HD )2?56CD  $625@HD   A   ? 6D6?4:2 " +#" 
!# 56DE24232 =@ BF6 @EC@D 2FE@C6D J2 923V2? D6W2=25@ 6? @EC2D
@42D:@?6D 2 D236C =2 :>A@D:3:=:525 7VD:42 56 F? 4C64:>:6?E@ >2E6C:2= :?L?:E@

6 29V BF6 6= 6DEF5:@ " +#"  !# D6 4@?@K42 E2>3:U? 4@>@ :?7@C>6
$625@HD @ AC:>6C :?7@C>6 56= =F3 56 )@>2 ? 6DE6 EC232;@ D6 FD2CT? :?5:DE:?E2>6?E6
6DE2D 56?@>:?24:@?6D A2C2 C676C:CD6 2= :?7@C>6 AF3=:425@ 4@? 6= ?@>3C6 " +#" 
!#   

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

77

6? F? A=2?6E2 L?:E@ 56>TD D6 4F6DE:@?232 23:6CE2>6?E6 =2 >6E2 56=


4C64:>:6?E@ 64@?X>:4@ BF6 4@>@ D6W2=2 -V4E@C ,CBF:5:   6? 6= ACX=@8@
2 =2 65:4:X? 6? 6DA2W@= 56 =2 @3C2 D@=V2 :56?E:L42CD6 J E@52GV2 D6 9246 4@?
3:6?6DE2C +@5@ 6==@ J2 923V2 D:5@ A=2?E625@ A@C >F49@D @EC@D 2FE@C6D
D:? 6>32C8@ =2 2>A=:2 5:7FD:X? 56= :?7@C>6 BF6 D6 4@?G:CE:X 6? F? UI:E@
56 G6?E2D 6? G2C:@D A2VD6D J D6 EC25F;@ 2 F?2 EC6:?E6?2 56 :5:@>2D =2 4C:D:D
6?6C8UE:42 BF6 D6 56D2EX A@4@ 56DAFUD 56 =2 AF3=:424:X? 56= >:D>@ J 6= 7F6CE6
5632E6 BF6 DFD4:EX AC@A:4:2C@? BF6 D6 4@?G:CE:6D6 6? F? 9:E@ 7F?52>6?E2=
6? =@D 6DEF5:@D D@3C6 64@?@>V2 D@4:6525 J >65:@ 2>3:6?E6
6 2BFV 6? 256=2?E6 =2 4F6DE:X? 56 =@D =V>:E6D 7VD:4@D 56= 4C64:>:6?E@
64@?X>:4@ 56;232 56 D6C >2E6C:2 56 =@D 6IA6CE@D A2C2 4@?G6CE:CD6 6? F?
2DA64E@ BF6 4@?46C?V2 J AC6@4FA232 E2>3:U? 2= 4:F5252?@ 4@>Y? %@ @3D
E2?E6 6? 6= AC:>6C 42AVEF=@ 56 :?EC@5F44:X? 56= 6DEF5:@ =@D 2FE@C6D 564=2C2
32? BF6 DF AC@AXD:E@ 6C2 :?:4:2C 6= ?646D2C:@ 5632E6 D@3C6 =2D 42FD2D J =2D
4@?D64F6?4:2D 56 =2D 246=6C252D E6?56?4:2D BF6 42C24E6C:K2? 2= >F?5@ >@
56C?@ 6D 564:C D@3C6 2BF6==@D AC@3=6>2D BF6 4@?46C?V2? 2 F?2 4@>F?:525
>TD 2>A=:2 BF6 =2 BF6 4@?DE:EFJ6? 6DEC:4E2>6?E6 =@D 4:6?EVL4@D ? 6D6 4@?
E6IE@ 6= :E2=:2?@ FC6=:@ '6446: 7F?525@C 56= =F3 56 )@>2 5676?5V2 6=
6DEF5:@ C62=:K25@ 4@? =2D D:8F:6?E6D A2=23C2D

0   1 = :?7@C>6 $625@HD 4F>A=:X DF 7F?4:X? %@ DX=@ 56D6?


4256?X F? 5632E6 56 2>A=:EF5 >F?5:2= D@3C6 =@D =V>:E6D J =@D
A6=:8C@D 56= 56D4@?EC@=25@ 4C64:>:6?E@ 9F>2?@ J D@3C6 >F492D
4F6DE:@?6D 4@?6I2D D:?@ BF6 256>TD A@C AC:>6C2 G6K A@C 2DV
564:C=@ 5:@ 2= 9@>3C6 56 =2 42==6 =2 ==2G6 56= =236C:?E@ 56 >@5@
BF6 AF652 G6C A@C DV >:D>@ =@D 7@C>:523=6D AC@3=6>2D 8=@32
=6D BF6 D6 6?EC64CFK2? J BF6 2>6?2K2? 2 =2 A@3C6 9F>2?:525
= >@5@ 56 F? 4232==@ 56 +C@J2 A6C>:E:X BF6 6= ?F6G@ A6?
D2>:6?E@ D6 256?EC2D6 6? =2 G:6;2 J 46CC252 7@CE2=6K2 '6446: 6?
+2>2>6D 
 A 
= 6?D2J@ D6 6DECF4EFC2 56 =2 D:8F:6?E6 7@C>2 ? AC:>6C =F82C D6 AC6
D6?E2 =2 >6E@5@=@8V2 56 2?T=:D:D 2 A2CE:C 56 =2 2A=:424:X? 56 =2 E6@CV2 56

78

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

5:?T>:42 56 D:DE6>2D J =2 >@56=:K24:X? :?7@C>TE:42 BF6 D6 FE:=:KX 6? =2


6=23@C24:X? 56 =@D :?7@C>6D 56= =F3 56 )@>2 ? D68F?5@ =F82C D6 6I
A@?6 6= >@56=@ .@C=5 56 !2J @CC6DE6C 6? 6= BF6 D6 :?DA:CX 6= >@56=@
8=@32= 56= 6BF:A@ $625@HD 6? 6= 2W@   ? E6C46C =F82C ?@D 46?EC2>@D
6? 6= 6DEF5:@ " +#"  !# 6= 4F2= 4@?DE:EFJ6 6= ?Y4=6@ :?G6D
E:82E:G@ 56= AC6D6?E6 6?D2J@ '@DE6C:@C>6?E6 D6 23@C52? =2D BF6 2 ?F6DEC@
;F:4:@ D@? =2D AC:?4:A2=6D 4CVE:42D BF6 D6 A=2?E62C@? EC2D =2 AF3=:424:X? 56=
4@?EC@G6CE:5@ :?7@C>6 ? 6= BF:?E@ 2A2CE25@ D6 AC6D6?E2? 3C6G6>6?E6 =2D
4@?4=FD:@?6D 86?6C2=6D 56 =@D :?7@C>6D 56= =F3 56 )@>2 AF3=:425@D G6:?E6
J EC6:?E2 2W@D 56DAFUD 56= 6DEF5:@ @C:8:?2= :?2=>6?E6 D6 >F6DEC2? =2D
4@?4=FD:@?6D 56= 6?D2J@



 &"$,   !*   %%& % (  "


).! !"$ *& ! "% !"$ %  '
 " 

= :?7@C>6 $625@HD FE:=:KX A2C2 DF EC232;@ AC@DA64E:G@ >@56=@D BF6 AC@


465V2? 56 =2 E6@CV2 56 =2 5:?T>:42 56 D:DE6>2D J =2 >@56=:K24:X? :?7@C>TE:42
#2 ;FDE:L424:X? A2C2 =2 FE:=:K24:X? 56 6DE6 E:A@ 56 2?T=:D:D AC@G6?V2 56 =2
4@?G:44:X? 56 =@D =V>:E6D 56 =2 >6?E6 9F>2?2 A2C2 2?2=:K2C D:DE6>2D D@4:2=6D
J ?2EFC2=6D 4@>A=6;@D 6? =@D BF6 D6 :?E6CC6=24:@?2? J D6 C6EC@2=:>6?E2? 5:
G6CD2D G2C:23=6D P= 46C63C@ 9F>2?@ 2 A6D2C 56 D6C E2? 6IEC2@C5:?2C:@
Y?:42>6?E6 AF656 C68:DEC2C F? ?Y>6C@ =:>:E25@ 56 =2D 4@>A=:4252D :?E6
C244:@?6D D:>F=ET?62D BF6 56E6C>:?2? =2 ?2EFC2=6K2 56= >F?5@ C62=Q $62
5@HD $625@HD )2?56CD  69C6?D   A  DE6 E:A@ 56 C6=24:@?6D
4:C4F=2C6D J 4@?42E6?252D D6 AC@5F46? 56 7@C>2 4@>A=6;2 A@C =@ BF6 6=
>@56=@ >2E6>TE:4@ 2 EC2GUD 56 AC@8C2>2D 4@>AFE24:@?2=6D J >@56C?@D
@C56?25@C6D A@5V2 42AE2C 6= =236C:?E@ 56 4@?6I:@?6D J DFD 4@?D64F6?4:2D
D:? =2D :?46CE:5F>3C6D AC@A:2D 56 =@D >@56=@D >6?E2=6D J 256>TD A6C>:EV2
@3E6?6C F? >6?D2;6 4=2C@ J D:? 2>3:8Z65256D +2= J 4@>@ =@ 6IAC6DX !2J
@CC6DE6C 6? DF @3C2 .@C=5 J?2>:4D 6?   P#2 >6?E6 9F>2?2 ?@ 6DET
252AE252 A2C2 :?E6CAC6E2C 6= 4@>A@CE2>:6?E@ 56 =@D D:DE6>2D D@4:2=6D ?
=2 =2C82 9:DE@C:2 56 =2 6G@=F4:X? 6= 9@>3C6 ?@ 92 ?646D:E25@ 6?E6?56C 6D

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

79

E@D D:DE6>2D 92DE2 E:6>A@D 9:DEXC:4@D >FJ C64:6?E6DQ +2>2>6D 


 A
  ? 42>3:@ =2 D:>F=24:X? D@4:2= 2 A2CE:C 56 >@56=@D AC6D6?E232 D68Y?
@CC6DE6C 6G:56?E6D G6?E2;2D
#2 ?@E24:X? >2E6>TE:42 BF6 D6 6>A=62 A2C2 56D4C:3:C F? >@
56=@ 5:?T>:4@ 42C646 56 2>3:8Z6525 D F? =6?8F2;6 >TD 4=2C@ J
>TD AC64:D@ BF6 =2D =6?8F2D 923=252D 4@>@ 6= :?8=UD @ 6= 7C2?4UD
   #2 8C2? :?46CE:5F>3C6 4@? =@D >@56=@D >6?E2=6D 6D =2 :?42
A24:525 A2C2 2?E:4:A2C =2D 4@?D64F6?4:2D 56 =2D :?E6C244:@?6D
6?EC6 =2D A2CE6D 56 F? D:DE6>2 DE2 :?46CE:5F>3C6 D6 6=:>:?2
E@E2=>6?E6 6? =@D >@56=@D 56 4@>AFE25@C6D @CC6DE6C  
6? +2>2>6D 
 A  
56>TD 56 =2 6=:>:?24:X? 56 =2 :?46CE:5F>3C6 AC@A:2 56 =@D >@56=@D
>6?E2=6D $625@HD 6E 2=   D6W2=232? 5@D G6?E2;2D 25:4:@?2=6D 56 =@D
>@56=@D 7@C>2=6D @ >2E6>TE:4@D ? AC:>6C =F82C 525@ BF6 =2D 9:AXE6D:D
5636? D6C 6D4C:E2D 56 >2?6C2 AC64:D2 UDE2D 6DET? 23:6CE2D 2 2?T=:D:D 4CVE:42
J 6G6?EF2=>6?E6 C6G:D:X? ? D68F?5@ =F82C F?2 G6K C62=:K25@ 6D6 6;6C4:4:@
56 5:D4FD:X? J C6G:D:X? 56 =2D 9:AXE6D:D A2C2 252AE2C=2D P2 ?F6DEC@ >6;@C
4@?@4:>:6?E@ 24EF2= DFD :>A=:424:@?6D A2C2 6= 4@>A@CE2>:6?E@ 56= D:DE6>2
>F?5:2= AF656? D6C 56E64E252D D:? 6CC@C A@C F?2 4@>AFE25@C2 :?56A6?
5:6?E6>6?E6 56 =@ 4@>A=:425@ BF6 AF652? D6CQ $625@HD 6E 2=   A

9@C2 3:6? =2 FE:=:K24:X? 56 >@56=@D 56 5:?T>:42 56 D:DE6>2D E2= J
4@>@ =@ C64@?@4V2? 6= AC@A:@ !2J @CC6DE6C +2>2>6D 
 J 6= 6BF:A@
56 :?G6DE:825@C6D 56= AC:>6C :?7@C>6 56= =F3 56 )@>2 $625@HD 6E 2=
  E2>3:U? AC6D6?E232 =:>:E24:@?6D J 6DE232 =6;@D 56 AC@G66C AC65:4
4:@?6D 6I24E2D D >TD 6D6 ?@ 6C2 DF @3;6E:G@ 6 9649@ =@D $625@HD
?682C@? 42E68XC:42>6?E6 BF6 DF EC232;@ 7F6D6 F? 6;6C4:4:@ 56 AC65:44:X?
'@C 6= 4@?EC2C:@ 6?72E:K2C@? =2 A2=23C2 PAC@J644:X?Q = >2E:K 6D :>A@C
E2?E6 AF6DE@ BF6 6= C6DF=E25@ 56 DF EC232;@ AF656 :?E6CAC6E2CD6 4@>@ F?2
2AC@I:>24:X? 56 =2D E6?56?4:2D 56= D:DE6>2 >F?5:2= BF6 AF656 D6C >TD @
>6?@D 246CE252 56A6?5:6?5@ 56 =2 6DECF4EFC2 56= >@56=@ J =@D DFAF6DE@D 56
A2CE:52 25@AE25@D 6? U= ? @EC2D A2=23C2D =@ :>A@CE2?E6 ?@ 6C2 AC6564:C

80

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

6= >@>6?E@ 6I24E@ 6? 6= BF6 D6 AC@5F4:CV2? =@D 76?X>6?@D D:?@ >@DEC2C =2


E6?56?4:2 56 UDE@D @>@ D6W2=2 !@C86 ):649>2??
= @3;6E:G@ 56= >@56=@ 8=@32= .@C=5 ?@ 6D AC@A@C4:@?2C AC65:4
4:@?6D 6I24E2D D:?@ 2?E:4:A2C =2 5:?T>:42 56= D:DE6>2 >F?5:2=
    #2 G2=:56K 56= >@56=@ C6D:56 Y?:42>6?E6 6? 6= 9649@ 56
BF6 4F2=6DBF:6C2 BF6 D62? =2D 4@?5:4:@?6D :?:4:2=6D D:6>AC6 92J
6? =2 8CTL42 F? AF?E@ 6? 6= BF6 =2 6IA2?D:X? D6 56E:6?6 J 6=
56CCF>32>:6?E@ 4@>:6?K2     = >@5@ 3TD:4@ 56 4@>A@C
E2>:6?E@ 56= D:DE6>2 >F?5:2= 4@?D:DE6 6? 4C64:>:6?E@ 6IA@?6?
4:2= 56 =2 A@3=24:X? J 56= 42A:E2= D68F:5@ 56 F? 4@=2AD@ ):649
>2?? 
 A 

DE2 5:D4FD:X? C64F6C52 2 =2 BF6 6?   56D2CC@==X 6= 64@?@>:DE2 9@=2?
5UD !2? +:?36C86? 6? DFD A=2?E62>:6?E@D D@3C6 4X>@ D6 5636 6DEF5:2C 6=
7FEFC@ 6? =@D BF6 6?72E:KX =2 5:DE:?4:X? 6?EC6 PAC6G:D:@?6DQ J PA=2?6DQ
+2>2>6D 
 6 24F6C5@ 2 +:?36C86? =2D PAC6G:D:@?6DQ A2CE6? 56
9:AXE6D:D 6? =2D BF6 ?@ D6 4@?D:56C2? EC2?D7@C>24:@?6D 6? 6= CU8:>6? D@
4:@64@?X>:4@ >:6?EC2D BF6 =@D PA=2?6DQ DV :>A=:42? 42>3:@D :>A@CE2?E6D
6? 6= >2C4@ :?DE:EF4:@?2= +2>2>6D 
 A  C64@8:X =2 :562 7F?52>6?
E2= 56= 64@?@>:DE2 9@=2?5UD AC6>:@ %@36= 56 4@?@>V2
 =2C8@ A=2K@ =2D AC6G:D:@?6D 42C646? 56 D6?E:5@ D:8?:L42? F?2
4@?86=24:X? 56= >2C4@ 86?6C2= 6? 6= BF6 =2D >6C2D 6IEC2A@=2
4:@?6D 4@?5F46? 2= 23DFC5@ '@C E2?E@ 6= 7FEFC@ ?@ AF656 D6C
AC6G:DE@ A6C@ DV A=2?:L425@ J A2C2 6D2 A=2?:L424:X? D6 9246 :?
5:DA6?D23=6 D@A6D2C =2D E6?56?4:2D 56 42>3:@ BF6 D6 AC6D:6?E6?
6? =2 D@4:6525
*:? 6>32C8@ 2?E6D 56 C6G:D2C 6DE2D 4F6DE:@?6D A2C2 6= 42D@ 56= >@56=@
6>A=625@ 6? 6= :?7@C>6 " +#"  !# 56?@>:?25@ .@C=5 
4@?G:6?6 56E6?6CD6 F?@D :?DE2?E6D 2 56D4C:3:C 6= >@56=@ BF6 AC6465:X 2= BF6
D6 FE:=:KX 6? 5:49@ :?7@C>6 6= >@56=@ .@C=5 

+2>3:U? 9F3@ F? >@56=@ AC@E@E:A@ .@C=5 6=23@C25@ A@C 6= AC@76D@C 56= $ + !2J
@CC6DE6C 6? C6DAF6DE2 2 =2 4@?DF=E2 56= =F3 56 )@>2 D@3C6 =@ BF6 4@?DE:EF:CV2 A@DE6C:@C

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma



81

!&!&%  "" "  "% , &%


 $ !&"  "" "$  "$$%&$

!2J @CC6DE6C 6IA6CE@ 6? 5:?T>:42 56 D:DE6>2D 56= $ + 6=23@CX 6?  


F? AC:>6C >@56=@ 6? 6= BF6 2?2=:K232 =2 5:?T>:42 >F?5:2= 56= D:DE6>2
D@4:2= 6? DF :?E6C244:X? 4@? 6= D:DE6>2 ?2EFC2= = >@56=@ BF6 C6=24:@?232
4:?4@ G2C:23=6D 4=2G6 A@3=24:X? ?:G6= 56 4@?E2>:?24:X? C64FCD@D ?2EFC2=6D
:?G6CD:X? 56 42A:E2= E@E2= :?5FDEC:2=:K24:X? J 2=:>6?E@D 7F6 56?@>:?25@
.@C=5 J 5@4F>6?E25@ 6? =2 @3C2 .@C=5 J?2>:4D AF3=:4252 6?   ?
56L?:E:G2 6? 6DE6 >@56=@ D6 C62=:K232 F? 2?T=:D:D D:DEU>:4@ J F?2 AC@J644:X?
A2C2 6= D:8=@ // E@>2?5@ 4@>@ C676C6?4:2 =2 E6?56?4:2 8=@32= 6? =@D >@5@D
56 AC@5F44:X? J 4@?DF>@ 6? =@D AC:>6C@D  2W@D 56= D:8=@ //
#@ :?E6C6D2?E6 56= 6DEF5:@ 6D BF6 6= >@56=@ ?@ D6 C65F4V2 2 2?2=:K2C
=@D 6764E@D BF6 =2D A2FE2D 56 AC@5F44:X? J 4@?DF>@ 56= >@>6?E@ E6?V2?
6? =2D G2C:23=6D 56 >2?6C2 :?56A6?5:6?E6 D:?@ BF6 E2>3:U? 4@?D:56C232
=2D :?E6CC6=24:@?6D 6?EC6 6D2D 4:?4@ G2C:23=6D J =@D 6764E@D 56 C67F6CK@ BF6
D6 AC@5F4V2? 6? 6==2D 4@>@ C6DF=E25@ 56 6D2 :?E6C244:X? '@C 6;6>A=@ =2
:?5FDEC:2=:K24:X? 86?6C2 4@?E2>:?24:X? BF6 2764E2 2 =2 AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:
>6?E@D BF6 2 DF G6K 2764E2 2= ?Y>6C@ 56 A6CD@?2D BF6 AF656? G:G:C 4@?
6D@D >65:@D 56 DF3D:DE6?4:2 J BF6 6? 56L?:E:G2 6;6C46 AC6D:X? D@3C6 =@D
C64FCD@D ?2EFC2=6D
#@D C6DF=E25@D BF6 2CC@;232 6= 2?T=:D:D :?5:4232? BF6 6? =2 5:?T>:42
>F?5:2= D6 AC@5F4:CV2 F? 4C64:>:6?E@ CTA:5@ 56 E@52D =2D G2C:23=6D 4@?E6>
A=252D 6I46AE@ 6? =@D C64FCD@D ?2EFC2=6D 92DE2 2=42?K2C F? AF?E@ >TI:>@
2 A2CE:C 56= 4F2= D6 AC@5F4:CV2 F?2 7F6CE6 42V52 #2 Y?:42 G2C:23=6 56= 2?T=:D:D
BF6 6D42A232 2 6DE6 4@>A@CE2>:6?E@ 4@>@ J2 D6 256=2?EX 6C2? =@D C64FCD@D
?2EFC2=6D =@D 4F2=6D >@DEC232? F?2 42V52 56D56 6= :?:4:@ J 2 =@ =2C8@ 56 E@5@
6= A6C:@5@ 2?2=:K25@ '@C E2?E@ =2 :562 46?EC2= 56 =2 E6?56?4:2 AC6D6?E252
6C2 =2 56 F? 4C64:>:6?E@ 6IA@?6?4:2= 56 =2 A@3=24:X? =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? =@D
2=:>6?E@D A6C 4TA:E2 J =2 AC@5F44:X? :?5FDEC:2= A6C 4TA:E2 92DE2 F? >@>6?
>6?E6 6= ?Y4=6@ 56 =2 AC6@4FA24:X? J 2?T=:D:D 56= :?7@C>6 " +#"  !# 
  6D 564:C =2D :?E6C4@?6I:@?6D 6?EC6 E6?56?4:2D J AC@3=6>2D >F?5:2=6D $625@HD 6E
2=



82

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

E@ 6? 6= BF6 =2 42A24:525 56 4C64:>:6?E@ 56= D:DE6>2 ==68232 2 DF =V>:E6 J


4@=2AD232
#2 AC@AF6DE2 BF6 D6 56C:G232 56= 2?T=:D:D C62=:K25@ A@C @CC6DE6C 6? DF
>@56=@ .@C=5  A2C2 6G:E2C =2D 56D2DEC@D2D 4@?D64F6?4:2D 56 6DE6 4@=2AD@ J
2=42?K2C F? 6BF:=:3C:@ 8=@32= 6? 6= 7FEFC@ AC64:D232 25@AE2C =2D D:8F:6?E6D
>65:52D +2>2>6D 
 A 
#2 05:D>:?F4:X? 6? =21 FE:=:K24:X? 56 =@D C64FCD@D ?2EFC2=6D 924:6?5@
F?2 2A=:424:X? >TD :?E6?D2 56= C64:4=2;6 92DE2 C65F4:C DF 4@?DF>@ 6?
F? 
#2 =:>:E24:X? 56 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? 6? F?   =2 4@?EC244:X? 56 =2D
:?G6CD:@?6D 56 42A:E2= 6? F?
 
= 56D46?D@ 56= 4@6L4:6?E6 56 ?2E2=:525 6? F?  
6 24F6C5@ 2 =2D AC@J644:@?6D 56= >@56=@ 6= C6DF=E25@ BF6 D6 2=42?K2CV2
D: D6 25@AE2D6? 6DE2D >65:52D D6CV2 6= 4C64:>:6?E@ 46C@ 56 =2 A@3=24:X? =2
:?G6CD:X? 56 42A:E2= =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? J =2 42=:525 56 G:52 '@C DF A2CE6
=@D C64FCD@D ?2EFC2=6D D68F:CV2? 564C64:6?5@ A6C@ 2 F? C:E>@ >F49@ >6?@C
+2>2>6D 
 ? 4@?4=FD:X? @CC6DE6C A=2?E6232
(F6 F? 6BF:=:3C:@ 8=@32= 6D 2=8@ 4@?46AEF2=>6?E6 A@D:3=6 = BF6
D6 =@8C6 2=42?K2C=@ 6D @EC2 4F6DE:X? #2D 24EF24:@?6D BF6 D6CV2?
?646D2C:2D A2C2 6==@ ?@ D6 246AE2CT? 7T4:=>6?E6 'C@323=6>6?E6
D6 C6BF6C:CT >TD AC6D:X? D@3C6 =2 9F>2?:525 A@C A2CE6 56= >65:@
2>3:6?E6 2?E6D 56 BF6 D6 E@>6? 6? 4F6?E2 E2=6D 4F6DE:@?6D 4@?
DFL4:6?E6 AC6@4FA24:X? J D6C:6525 *:? 6>32C8@ A2C2 6?E@?46D
6= A=2K@ 56 E:6>A@ 5:DA@?:3=6 A2C2 24EF2C D6CT E@52GV2 >TD 3C6G6
@CC6DE6C   6? +2>2>6D 
 A  

 %&'"    
  


= >@56=@ .@C=5 56 !2J @CC6DE6C 7F6 A@DE6C:@C>6?E6 A6C7644:@?25@ A@C


=@D :?G6DE:825@C6D 56= CFA@ 56 :?T>:42 56 *:DE6>2D 56 =2 *=@2? *49@@=

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

83

@7 $2?286>6?E 56= $2DD249FD6EED ?DE:EFE6 @7 +649?@=@8J $ + BF6 4@?


L8FCX 6= 6BF:A@ 56= :?7@C>6 $625@HD C6DF=E2?5@ 56 6D2D >@5:L424:@?6D
6= >@56=@ .@C=5  2F?BF6 =2D >@5:L424:@?6D BF6 D6 C62=:K2C@? 2= >@56=@
.@C=5 @C:8:?2= ?@ 7F6C@? D:8?:L42E:G2D +2>2>6D 
 6 9649@ E2= J
4@>@ C64@?@4:6C@? =@D $625@HD P@CC6DE6C 6D 6= A25C6 :?E6=64EF2= 56= >@
56=@ .@C=5 J 56= >UE@5@ 56 >@56=24:X? 56 =2 5:?T>:42 56 D:DE6>2D BF6
6>A=62Q $625@HD 6E 2=   A

? DF>2 =2 :?7@C>24:X? 56= 6DEF5:@ D6 EC232;X 6?EC6   J   2 A2CE:C
56 =@D C6DF=E25@D BF6 2CC@;232 6= >@56=@ .@C=5  6? 6= BF6 D6 :?4@CA@C2C@?
2=8F?2D >@5:L424:@?6D 2= >@56=@ .@C=5 56 @CC6DE6C AC6D6?E25@ 6? =2
D644:X? 2?E6C:@C @?4C6E2>6?E6 6? 6DE6 D68F?5@ >@56=@ A6C7644:@?25@ D6
6DE23=64:X F?2 C65 56 4@?6I:@?6D 6?EC6 =2D G2C:23=6D 2 EC2GUD 56 F? D:DE6>2 56
64F24:@?6D 6? =F82C 56 =2D
6>A=6252D 6? 6= >@56=@ .@C=5 +2>2>6D

 56D2CC@==2?5@ A@C E2?E@ DF 6DECF4EFC2 J 2>A=:2?5@ DF 32D6 56 52E@D
4F2?E:E2E:G2 $625@HD 6E 2=   ? 6D6?4:2 ?@ @3DE2?E6 D6 EC2E232 56
F? >@56=@ D:>:=2C 2= 6=23@C25@ A@C @CC6DE6C AF6DE@ BF6 =@D A=2?E62>:6?E@D
D:>F=24:X? >6E@5@=@8V2 G2C:23=6D 2?2=:K252D J C6DF=E25@D ?@ D6 >@5:L42C@?
DFDE2?4:2=>6?E6 +2>2>6D 

? .@C=5 D6 6=23@C2C@?  AC@J644:@?6D 56 =2 6G@=F4:X? >F?5:2= 4@?
D:56C2?5@ 5:DE:?E2D A2FE2D A@D:3=6D 2 =@ =2C8@ 56= A6C:@5@ 56 2W@D BF6 G2?
56=  2=  ? 2=8F?2D 56 6D2D AC@J644:@?6D 2= :8F2= BF6 6? 6= >@
56=@ 2?E6C:@C D6 @3D6CG232 F? 4C64:>:6?E@ 56 E@52D =2D G2C:23=6D 2?2=:K252D
6? .@C=5 92DE2 F? AF?E@ >TI:>@ 6? 6= BF6 42>3:232 =2 E6?56?4:2 2D46?
56?E6 J 4@>6?K232 2 AC@5F4:CD6 F?2 7F6CE6 42V52 ,?2 G6K >TD Y?:42>6?E6
=@D C64FCD@D ?2EFC2=6D AC6D6?E232? F?2 6G@=F4:X? 5:DE:?E2 >@DEC2?5@ F?2
E6?56?4:2 56D46?56?E6 6? =@D 5@D D:8=@D 56= A6C:@5@ 56 2?T=:D:D
0   1 ? ?F6DEC2D AC@J644:@?6D =2 6IA2?D:X? 56 =2 A@3=24:X? J
56= 42A:E2= 7VD:4@ @3=:82 8C25F2=>6?E6 2 =2 9F>2?:525 2 565:42C
4252 G6K >TD 42A:E2= 2 9246C 7C6?E6 2 =@D AC@3=6>2D 56C:G25@D
56 F? 4@?;F?E@ 56 :>A65:>6?E@D = L?2= D6 565:42 E2?E@ 42A:
E2= 2 C6D@=G6C 6D@D AC@3=6>2D BF6 C6DF=E2 :>A@D:3=6 D@DE6?6C E@
5@ 4C64:>:6?E@ F=E6C:@C 56 =2 AC@5F44:X? :?5FDEC:2= F2?5@ =2
:?5FDEC:2 56426 =2 D@4:6525 ?@ AF656 D68F:C D@DE6?:6?5@ F?2

84

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

AC@5F44:X? 4252 G6K >2J@C 6? @EC@D D64E@C6D 64@?X>:4@D 2=:


>6?E24:X? D6CG:4:@D J @EC@D 4@?DF>@D F2?5@ 6D@D D64E@C6D
56;2? 56 4C646C 6= 4C64:>:6?E@ 56>@8CTL4@ E2>3:U? 46D2 $62
5@HD 6E 2=   A 
? 6DE6 6D46?2C:@ D:>F=25@ =2 6G@=F4:X? 56 =2 5:?T>:42 56 =2 A@3=24:X?
>F?5:2= J =2 64@?@>V2 >2E6C:2= 6G:56?4:232 6? 6= D:8=@ // =2 AC6D6?4:2 56
=@D =V>:E6D 7VD:4@D 56= A=2?6E2 BF6 A=2?E62 6= >@56=@ 56 4C64:>:6?E@ 6IA@
?6?4:2= 56 =2 D@4:6525 56 =@D Y=E:>@D EC6D D:8=@D DE@D =V>:E6D D6 AC@5F4V2?
E2?E@ 6? =2 AC6D:X? D@3C6 =@D C64FCD@D 4@>@ 6? =2 42A24:525 56 2D:>:=24:X?
56 =2 3:@D76C2 56 =@D 56D649@D BF6 D6 G:6CE6? 6? 6==2 *:? 6>32C8@ =2 4@>
A=6;:525 56= D:DE6>2 56>@8CTL4@64@?X>:4@2>3:6?E2= :>A65V2 D@3C6 F?2
32D6 4:6?EVL42 6DA64:L42C 4@? 6I24E:EF5 BFU 6=6>6?E@ D6 6C:8:CV2 L?2=>6?E6
6? 6= 7C6?@ Y=E:>@ 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ $625@HD 6E 2=   %@ @3DE2?E6
5252 =2 AC6D6?4:2 56 6DE@D =V>:E6D =@D :?G6DE:825@C6D 56= 6BF:A@ $625@HD
4@?4=FV2? P? E@52D =2D AC@J644:@?6D C62=:DE2D @3D6CG2>@D BF6 6DE@D =V>:
E6D :>A@?6? 6= L? 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 7VD:4@ 6? .@C=5 6? 2=8Y? >@>6?E@ 56=
D:8=@ // Q $625@HD 6E 2=   A  56>TD E2= J 4@>@ 24=2C232? =@D
:?G6DE:825@C6D 56= $ +
? 4252 F?@ 56 =@D 42D@D :?4:6CE@D 96>@D EC2E25@ 56 9246C =2D
AC6G:D:@?6D >TD @AE:>:DE2D 6? 4F2?E@ 2 =2D 42?E:5256D 56D4@?@
4:52D J E2>3:U? 96>@D 9649@ 42D@ @>:D@ 56 6G6?EF2=:5256D E2=6D
4@>@ 8F6CC2D J 6A:56>:2D BF6 AF652? A@?6C L? 2= 4C64:>:6?E@
>F49@ 2?E6D 56 =@ BF6 :?5:42 ?F6DEC@ >@56=@ ? @EC2D A2=23C2D
6= >@56=@ 6DET D6D825@ A2C2 A6C>:E:C BF6 6= 4C64:>:6?E@ 4@?E:?Y6
5FC2?E6 >F49@ >TD E:6>A@ 56= BF6 AC@323=6>6?E6 4@?E:?F2CT
6? 6= >F?5@ C62=
"+ $" " )!!  $ !#(
$  "   ,#""  $  ""# #$  "$!!*
-   !#  !# $"#! ' 
!*) "$!# " #!*  *" #!!   #!
"$!"  !,& "  $625@HD 6E 2=   AA    


#2D 4FCD:G2D 56 =2 4:E2 D@? 56 =@D 2FE@C6D 56= :?7@C>6 $625@HD

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

85

#2 A6CDA64E:G2 56 F? L?2= 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 6? 7@C>2 56 4@=2AD@ ?@ 6C2


>FJ 92=28Z6W2 P= CTA:5@ 564=:G6 56 =2 A@3=24:X? J =2 64@?@>V2 2 F?@D
?:G6=6D D@A@CE23=6D A@C =@D D:DE6>2D ?2EFC2=6D 56= A=2?6E2 G6?5CT 24@>
A2W25@ D:? 5F52 56 AC@3=6>2D 56 D2=F5 4@?M:4E@D 56G2DE24:X? 64@=X8:42 J
6?@C>6D 56D:8F2=5256DQ $625@HD 6E 2=   A 
*:? 6>32C8@ 6DE6 6C2 DX=@ F? A@D:3=6 6D46?2C:@ ? @EC2D A2=23C2D 6DE6
2?T=:D:D AC@DA64E:G@ 6? 6= BF6 6= L?2= 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 25@AE232 =2 7@C>2 56
4@=2AD@ PF? 564=:G6 :?4@?EC@=25@ E2?E@ 56 =2 A@3=24:X? 4@>@ 56= 3:6?6D
E2C 9F>2?@Q $625@HD 6E 2=   A  D6 C62=:K232 D@3C6 =2 32D6 56=
DFAF6DE@ 56 BF6 D6 >2?E6?V2? 6? 6= 7FEFC@ F?@D A2EC@?6D 56 AC@5F44:X? J
4@?DF>@ 6? =@D BF6 D6 6IEC2=:>:E232? J D@3C66IA=@E232? =2D 7F6?E6D J DF>:
56C@D 56= A=2?6E2 92DE2 ?:G6=6D :?D@DE6?:3=6D 6D 564:C A2EC@?6D D:>:=2C6D 2
=@D 56 =@D AC:>6C@D  2W@D 56= D:8=@ // %@ @3DE2?E6 6? @EC2D AC@J644:@?6D
56 .@C=5 6= L?2= 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ @4FCCV2 A2F=2E:?2>6?E6 J 56 7@C>2 @C
56?252 >65:2?E6 =2 P252AE24:X? 56 =2 9F6==2 64@=X8:42 56 =2 9F>2?:525
2 =2 42A24:525 56 42C82 56= A=2?6E2Q =@ BF6 4@?5F4:CV2 56 24F6C5@ 2 =@D
:?G6DE:825@C6D 56= $ + 2 PF? =2C8@ A6CV@5@ 56 3:6?6DE2C 9F>2?@ C6=2E:G2
>6?E6 2=E@Q $625@HD 6E 2=   A  '2C2 E2= L? D6 C6BF6CV2 PF?2
:??@G24:X? D@4:2= AC@7F?52 J 24E:G2 2 EC2GUD 56= 42>3:@ E64?@=X8:4@ 4F=EF
C2= 6 :?DE:EF4:@?2=Q $625@HD 6E 2=   A  '@C 6D@ 2= :8F2= BF6 9:K@
!2J @CC6DE6C 6? 6= >@56=@ .@C=5  4@? DF AC@AF6DE2 56 >65:52D A2C2 2=
42?K2C F? 6BF:=:3C:@ 8=@32=  6= 6BF:A@ 56= $ + A=2?E6X =2D BF6 56 24F6C5@
2= >@56=@ .@C=5  A6C>:E:CV2? 2=42?K2C 6D2 >:D>2 D:EF24:X? SDE2D D@?


DE23:=:K24:X? 56 =2 A@3=24:X? 2 EC2GUD 56 =2 :8F2=525 56 =2 E2D2


56 ?2E2=:525 J =2 56 >@CE2=:525 6?   ? 42>3:@ D6 A6C>:E6 BF6 6=
42A:E2= :?5FDEC:2= 2F>6?E6 ?2EFC2=>6?E6 92DE2  A2C2 6DE23:=:K2C=@
2 A2CE:C 56 6D6 2W@ :8F2=2?5@ =2 E2D2 56 :?G6CD:X? J =2 56 56AC64:24:X?

'2C2 6G:E2C F?2 A6?FC:2 56 C64FCD@D ?@ C6?@G23=6D   D6 C65F46

-2=6 C64@C52C BF6 6= EUC>:?@ PDFDE6?E23:=:525Q E@52GV2 ?@ D6 923V2 24FW25@ 6? 6=


>@>6?E@ 56 =2 AF3=:424:X? 56= AC:>6C :?7@C>6 56= =F3 56 )@>2 6?   6 9649@ UDE6
EUC>:?@ D6 4@>:6?K2 2 FD2C 2>A=:2>6?E6 6?  8C24:2D 2 =2 A@AF=2C:525 BF6 2=42?KX 6=
6DEF5:@ $"#! $#$! - 6=23@C25@ A@C =2 @>:D:X? $F?5:2= D@3C6 $65:@ >3:6?E6
J 6D2CC@==@ AC6D:5:52 A@C =2 6I AC:>6C2 >:?:DEC2 ?@CF682 C@ 2C=6> CF?5E=2?5

86

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

6= 4@?DF>@ 56 C64FCD@D A@C F?:525 56 AC@5F4E@ :?5FDEC:2= 2 F? 4F2CE@


56 DF G2=@C 6?   DE2 A@=VE:42 J =2D 4:?4@ D:8F:6?E6D D6 :?EC@5F46?
6?  


'2C2 C65F4:C E@52GV2 >TD 6= 28@E2>:6?E@ 56 =@D C64FCD@D J =2


4@?E2>:?24:X? =2 D@4:6525 @C:6?E2 DFD AC676C6?4:2D 64@?X>:42D 924:2
D6CG:4:@D 4@>@ =2 65F424:X? J 6= >6;@C2>:6?E@ 56 =2D 4@?5:4:@?6D 56
D2=F5 J >6?@D 924:2 =@D 3:6?6D >2E6C:2=6D AC@5F4:5@D 6? =2D 7T3C:42D
DE2 C6@C:6?E24:X? 56 AC676C6?4:2 D6 9246 2 EC2GUD 56 =2 C6=24:X? 6?
=2 BF6 =@D D6CG:4:@D A6C 4TA:E2 P:?5:425@DQ @ P56D625@DQ D@? 7F?4:X?
56= 2F>6?E@ 56= :?8C6D@



#2 86?6C24:X? 56 4@?E2>:?24:X? A@C F?:525 56 AC@5F4E@ :?5FD


EC:2= J 28CV4@=2 D6 C65F46 2 F? 4F2CE@ 56 DF G2=@C 6?  



@>@ =2D A@=VE:42D 2?E6C:@C6D DX=@ EC26CV2? 4@>@ C6DF=E25@ F?


G2=@C >TD 3:6? 32;@ 56 =@D 2=:>6?E@D A6C 4TA:E2 2=8F?2 A2CE6 56 =2
A@3=24:X? D68F:CV2 6DE2?5@ >2= 2=:>6?E252 56 A6CD:DE:C =2D 56D:8F2=
5256D EC25:4:@?2=6D 56 =2 5:DEC:3F4:X? '2C2 6G:E2C=@ D6 2D:8?2 >FJ
6DA64:2= :>A@CE2?4:2 2 =2 AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D DFL4:6?E6D A2C2 E@
52 =2 A@3=24:X? '@C =@ >:D>@ 6= 42A:E2= D6 56DG:2CV2 924:2 =2 AC@
5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D 2F? 4F2?5@ 6D2 :?G6CD:X? 7F6C2 4@?D:56C252
P2?E:64@?X>:42Q DE6 42>3:@ D6 C62=:K2 2 EC2GUD 56 =2 C6=24:X? P:?
5:4252Q 56 2=:>6?E@D A6C 4TA:E2



= :?E6CUD 6? F?2 28C:4F=EFC2 2=E2>6?E6 42A:E2=:K252 D: 3:6? ?646


D2C:@ A2C2 AC@5F4:C DFL4:6?E6D 2=:>6?E@D ==6G2CV2 2 =2 CTA:52 6C@D:X?
56= DF6=@ J 2= 28@E2>:6?E@ 56 =2 76CE:=:525 56 =2 E:6CC2 56DECFJ6?5@
2DV =2 6DE23:=:525 2 =2C8@ A=2K@ 56= D64E@C 28CV4@=2 ? 4@?D64F6?4:2
D6 92 >@5:L425@ 6= FD@ 56= 42A:E2= 28CV4@=2 A2C2 52C 2=E2 AC:@C:525
2= 6?C:BF64:>:6?E@ J =2 4@?D6CG24:X? 56= DF6=@ DE2 A@=VE:42 :>A=:42
A@C 6;6>A=@ 6= FD@ 56 42A:E2= A2C2 2AC@G6492C =@D 56D649@D @C8T?:
4@D FC32?@D J 56G@=G6C=@D 2 =2 E:6CC2 ACT4E:42 BF6 E2>3:U? C65F46 =2
4@?E2>:?24:X?

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma



87

#2 5:DEC:3F4:X? 56= 42A:E2= :?5FDEC:2= 924:2 6= >6;@C2>:6?E@ 56


=@D D6CG:4:@D J 924:2 =2 AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D 6= C64:4=2;6 56 C64FC
D@D J 6= 4@?EC@= 56 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? 32;@ =2D D6:D 4@?5:4:@?6D 2CC:32
6?F>6C252D ==6G2CV2? 2 BF6 6= ?:G6= L?2= 56= 246CG@ 56 42A:E2= :?
5FDEC:2= 7F6C2 >FJ 32;@ '2C2 4@?EC2CC6DE2C 6DE6 6764E@ D6 2F>6?E2
6= A6C:@5@ 56 G:52 >65:2 56= 42A:E2= :?5FDEC:2= 2F>6?E@ BF6 :>A=:
42 F? >6;@C 5:D6W@ A2C2 =@8C2C 5FC23:=:525 J C6A2C23:=:525 J >6?@C
56D42CE6 56 42A:E2= A@C @3D@=6D46?4:2 DE2 A@=VE:42 E:6?56 E2>3:U? 2
C65F4:C 6= 28@E2>:6?E@ 56 =@D C64FCD@D J =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? $625@HD
6E 2=   AA    

'@C E2?E@ 2 ;F:4:@ 56 =@D :?G6DE:825@C6D 56= $ + F?2 G6K BF6 D6 2A=:42
32? 6DE2D >65:52D 4@CC64E@C2D D6 A@5V2 ==682C 2 F? 6BF:=:3C:@ 8=@32= DFD
E6?E23=6 @ 5FC256C@ #2 AC@AF6DE2 56= >@56=@ 56 6BF:=:3C:@ 8=@32= BF6 6D
3@K232? =@D $625@HD 6? 6= BF:?E@ J Y=E:>@ 42AVEF=@ 56= :?7@C>6 :?5:4232
BF6 D6 ==682 2 F?2 D:EF24:X? 6? =2 BF6
#2 A@3=24:X? >F?5:2= 6DE23=6 6D 2A6?2D DFA6C:@C 2 =2 A@3=24:X?
24EF2= #@D 2=:>6?E@D A@C A6CD@?2 D6 5FA=:42? C6DA64E@ 2= G2=@C
>65:@ 56   J 6= A6C:@5@ 56 G:52 >65:2 6D 56 42D:  2W@D =
AC@5F4E@ :?5FDEC:2= >65:@ A6C 42A:E2 6D >FJ DFA6C:@C 2= ?:G6= 24
EF2= J =@D D6CG:4:@D D6 EC:A=:42? = AC@5F4E@ :?5FDEC:2= >65:@ A6C
42A:E2 AC@5F4E@ :?5FDEC:2= 2=:>6?E@D J D6CG:4:@D 4@>3:?25@D
6D 56 46C42 56  5X=2C6D 2=C6565@C 56 =2 >:E25 56= :?8C6D@
>65:@ 6? DE25@D ,?:5@D :8F2= 2= 24EF2= AC@>65:@ 6FC@A6@ J
EC6D G646D 6= :?8C6D@ >65:@ >F?5:2= 56 9@J 6? 5V2 #@D C64FCD@D
D6 28@E2? E@52GV2 8C25F2=>6?E6 4@>@ 32;@ 4F2=BF:6C 9:AXE6D:D
C62=:DE2 A6C@ =2 E2D2 56 28@E2>:6?E@ 56 =@D C64FCD@D 6D =6?E2 J
92J E:6>A@ A2C2 BF6 =2 :?5FDEC:2 J =2 E64?@=@8V2 D6 2;FDE6? 2 =@D
42>3:@D 6? =2 5:DA@?:3:=:525 56 =@D C64FCD@D $625@HD 6E 2=
  AA   
? DF>2 E@>2?5@ 6? 4F6?E2 =@D 5:DE:?E@D P>F?5@D A@D:3=6DQ @ 6D46?2
C:@D BF6 D6 AC6D6?E232? 6? 6= 7FEFC@ 56 =2 9F>2?:525 D6 A@5V2? 6DE23=646C
=2D AC:?4:A2=6D 4@?4=FD:@?6D 56= :?7@C>6 $625@HD

88

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

*: D6 >2?E:6?6? =2D E6?56?4:2D 24EF2=6D 56 4C64:>:6?E@ 56 =2


A@3=24:X? >F?5:2= :?5FDEC:2=:K24:X? 4@?E2>:?24:X? 2>3:6?E2= AC@
5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D J 28@E2>:6?E@ 56 =@D C64FCD@D 6DE6 A=2?6E2 2=
42?K2CT =@D =V>:E6D 56 DF 4C64:>:6?E@ 6? 6= 4FCD@ 56 =@D ACXI:>@D 4:6?
2W@D = C6DF=E25@ >TD AC@323=6 D6CV2 F? DY3:E@ 6 :?4@?EC@=23=6 56D
46?D@ E2?E@ 56 =2 A@3=24:X? 4@>@ 56 =2 42A24:525 :?5FDEC:2=

D A@D:3=6 2=E6C2C 6DE2D E6?56?4:2D 56 4C64:>:6?E@ J 6DE23=646C


F?2 4@?5:4:X? 56 6DE23:=:525 64@=X8:42 J 64@?X>:42 BF6 AF652 >2?
E6?6CD6 5FC2?E6 =2C8@ E:6>A@ = 6DE25@ 56 6BF:=:3C:@ 8=@32= AF656
5:D6W2CD6 56 >2?6C2 BF6 4252 D6C 9F>2?@ AF652 D2E:D7246C DFD ?646D:
5256D >2E6C:2=6D 3TD:42D J 8@K2C 56 :8F2=525 56 @A@CEF?:5256D A2C2
56D2CC@==2C DF A@E6?4:2= A2CE:4F=2C

*: =@D D6C6D 9F>2?@D 564:56? 6>A6W2C DFD 6D7F6CK@D 6? 6= =@8C@ 56=


D68F?5@ C6DF=E25@ 6? G6K 56= AC:>6C@ 4F2?E@ >TD AC@?E@ 6>A:646?
2 EC232;2C 6? 6D6 D6?E:5@ >2J@C6D D6CT? =2D AC@323:=:5256D 56 UI:E@
$625@HD 6E 2=   AA
 


9@C2 3:6? 4@?G:6?6 56DE242C BF6 D6 92 4@?G6CE:5@ 6? F? =F82C 4@>Y?


42=:L42C 56 42E2DEC@LDE2D J 2A@42=VAE:4@D 2 =@D 2FE@C6D 56= :?7@C>6 $62
5@HD 
*:? 6>32C8@ F?2 =64EFC2 56D2A2D:@?252 56 =2D 4@?4=FD:@?6D 56= 6DEF
5:@ ?@D ==6G2 2 232?5@?2C =2 :562 DF>2>6?E6 5:7F?5:52 J 246AE252 56 F?
A=2?E62>:6?E@ 42E2DECXL4@ 56E6C>:?:DE2 2CA:?E6C@  D 564:C ?@ D6
56DAC6?56 56 =2D 4@?4=FD:@?6D 56= :?7@C>6 BF6 =2 6G@=F4:X? 56 =@D 76?X>6?@D


? 86?6C2= ?@ DX=@ 2 =@D 2FE@C6D 56= AC:>6C :?7@C>6 56= =F3 56 )@>2 D:?@ BF6
E2>3:U? 2 E@5@D 2BF6==@D BF6 D6 92? A@D:4:@?25@ :?E6=64EF2=>6?E6 2 72G@C 56= >6?D2;6 BF6
EC2?D>:E6? =2D 4@?4=FD:@?6D 56 DF EC232;@ '6C@ =2 4CVE:42 G2 >TD 2==T J 6?8=@32 E2>3:U?
2 =@D AC64FCD@C6D 56= 5632E6 24EF2= %@ 6? G2?@ $2=E9FD BF6 6D 6= 2?E64656?E6 A@C
6I46=6?4:2 92 D:5@ 56D4C:E@ 4@>@ P6= 9@>3C6 >6;@C F=EC2;25@ 56 DF E:6>A@Q 2C36C


A  J DFD 92==2K8@D 7F6C@? 6? 8C2? A2CE6 C6DA@?D23=6D 2 ;F:4:@ 56 2C36C 

 56 BF6
D6 ==2>2C2 2 =2 4@?@>V2 '@=VE:42 P=2 4:6?4:2 =Y8F3C6Q '@C DF A2CE6 =@D ?6@>2=E9FD:2?@D
92? D:5@ E2>3:U? C:5:4F=:K25@D 6? ?F>6C@D2D @42D:@?6D 4@>@ A6D:>:DE2D 6I286C25@D 6
9649@ )@36CE *@=@H 56?@>:?2 2 DFD >@56=@D 4@>@ =@D 56= PV2 56= !F:4:@ :?2=Q J
56?F?4:2 2 =@D $625@HD 56 C62=:K2C P>2=2 4:6?4:2Q 2CA:?E6C@  A 

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

89

?2EFC2=6D 6DEU 4@>A=6E2>6?E6 56E6C>:?252 A@C =2D 4@?5:4:@?6D :?:4:2=6D D:?@


BF6 A@C 6= 4@?EC2C:@ D6 :?5:42 BF6 6I:DE6 F? >2C86? 56 >2?:@3C2 6? =2
9F>2?:525 A2C2 2=42?K2C D:>F=ET?62>6?E6 =2 6DE23:=:525 64@=X8:42 =2 D2
E:D7244:X? 56 ?646D:5256D >2E6C:2=6D 3TD:42D J =2 :8F2=525 56 @A@CEF?:5256D
? A2=23C2D 56 -V4E@C ,CBF:5: 6? 6= ACX=@8@ 2 =2 65:4:X? 6? 6DA2W@= 56 =2
@3C2 P= >6?D2;6 BF6 ?@D 56;2 " +#"  !# 0   1 6D BF6
E@52GV2 ?@D BF652 E:6>A@Q ,CBF:5:   A 
'@C E2?E@ 6= AC@3=6>2 C25:42 6? EC2?D:E2C 56 =2D E6?56?4:2D 56AC6525@
C2D 24EF2=6D 6? =@D >@5@D 56 AC@5F44:X? J 4@?DF>@ 2 @EC2D C6DA6EF@D2D 4@?
6= 6?E@C?@ ?2EFC2= 6? =2D BF6 =2 4F6DE:X? 56 =@D =V>:E6D 7VD:4@D 56= A=2?6
E2 D6 6?4F6?EC6 AC6D6?E6 A2C2 4@?4:=:2C =@D D:DE6>2D D@4:2=6D J ?2EFC2=6D 6?
F?2 A6CDA64E:G2 5:?T>:42 56 =2C8@ A=2K@ ? 56L?:E:G2 4@>@ D6W2=232? =@D
:?G6DE:825@C6D 56= $ + D6 EC2E2 56 4@>AC6?56C J AC6A2C2C?@D PA2C2 F?
8C2? A6C:@5@ 56 EC2?D:4:X? =2 EC2?D:4:X? 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 2= 6BF:=:3C:@ 8=@
32=Q $625@HD 6E 2=   A
 @?G6?:>@D 4@? 2CA:?E6C@  BF6
6? ?:?8Y? >@>6?E@ D6 923=2 56 BF6 =2D E6?56?4:2D 24EF2=6D D62? :CC67FE2
3=6D J ?@ AF652? D6C >@5:L4252D 2= 4@?EC2C:@ D6 2A6=2 2 =2 42A24:525 56
=2D A6CD@?2D A2C2 42>3:2C =2D E6?56?4:2D J D6 :?DE2 2 9246C=@
'@C @EC2 A2CE6 6D :>A@CE2?E6 56DE242C =2D D:>:=:EF56D BF6 6I:DE6? 6? =@D
6?7@BF6D 56 =@D 2FE@C6D 56= :?7@C>6 56= =F3 56 )@>2 J =@D 56= 64@?@>:DE2
:?8=UD 56= D:8=@ / / !@9? *EF2CE $:== 6? DF @3C2 'C:?4:A:@D 56 4@?@>V2
'@=VE:42 56 
 >3@D J2 D62 FE:=:K2?5@ =2 ?@4:X? 56 6BF:=:3C:@ 8=@32= @
=2 56 6DE25@ 6DE24:@?2C:@ 4@?E6>A=2? 6DE2 D:EF24:X? 4@>@ F?2 A6CDA64E:G2
56D623=6 =6;@D 56= 42E2DEC@LD>@ ? 6764E@ 2= :8F2= BF6 D6W2=232 $:== =@D
2FE@C6D 56 #@D =V>:E6D 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 56DE24232? BF6 6BF:=:3C:@ ?@ D:8?:L42
6DE2?42>:6?E@ J BF6 PA@?6C =V>:E6D 2= 4C64:>:6?E@ >2E6C:2= ?@ D:8?:L42
C6?F?4:2C 2 =2 >6;@C2 56 =2 G:52 9F>2?2 D:?@ AC64:D2>6?E6 =@ 4@?EC2C:@Q
):649>2?? 
 A 

90

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

$,&%  "% $%'&"%  #$ $ !"$  


'  " 

#2 AF3=:424:X? 6? :?8=UD 56= 6DEF5:@ E:EF=25@  #" # !%# 6? >2C


K@ 56   G:?@ 24@>A2W252 56 8C2? 4@?EC@G6CD:2 ? 86?6C2= D6 C62=:K2C@?
?F>6C@D@D 4@>6?E2C:@D 2 72G@C J 6? 4@?EC2 56 =2 :?G6DE:824:X? 6? >65:@D 56
AC6?D2 6D4C:E2 A2C2 F? AY3=:4@ 2>A=:@ J E2>3:U? 6? C6G:DE2D 4:6?EVL42D A2C2
F? AY3=:4@ 6DA64:2=:K25@ ? 4@?4C6E@ =@D C6DF=E25@D 56= :?7@C>6 $625@HD
7F6C@? C64:3:5@D 56 7@C>2 7CV2 J 56DA64E:G2 A@C =2 >2J@C A2CE6 56 =@D 64@?@
>:DE2D 6?EC6 =@D 4F2=6D D6 6?4@?EC232? A6D@D A6D25@D 82=2C5@?25@D 4@? 6=
'C6>:@ %@36= 56 4@?@>V2 E2=6D 4@>@ )@36CE *@=@H J '2F= *2>F6=D@?
,?2 56 =2D =:>:E24:@?6D 56= 6DEF5:@ 2AF?E252 A@C -V4E@C ,CBF:5: 6? 6=
ACX=@8@ 2 =2 65:4:X? 6? 6DA2W@= 6C2 6= 42CT4E6C 8=@32= 56 =@D >@56=@D $62
5@HD 6E 2=   ? DF @A:?:X? 6DE@ 5:L4F=E232 :?E6CAC6E2C =@D C6DF=E25@D
56 =@D >@56=@D J DFD 4@?D64F6?4:2D A2C2 F?2 C68:X? @ F? A2VD 4@?4C6E@ '@C
6;6>A=@ =2 A6CDA64E:G2 56 6DE23:=:525 8=@32= A=2?E6232 G2C:@D :?E6CC@82?E6D
A2C2 =@D A2VD6D BF6 ?@ 923V2? 2=42?K25@ F? ?:G6= 56 42A24:525 AC@5F4E:G2
J 4@?DF>@ >2E6C:2= 42A2K 56 D2E:D7246C F?@D >V?:>@D 56 3:6?6DE2C >2E6C:2=
A2C2 DF A@3=24:X? '2C2 =@D 923:E2?E6D J =@D E@>25@C6D 56 564:D:@?6D 56
6DE2D C68:@?6D J A2VD6D =2 A6CDA64E:G2 56 4C64:>:6?E@ 46C@ ?@ D6CV2 F?2 @A
4:X? G:23=6 56D56 6= AF?E@ 56 G:DE2 D@4:2= J 423V2 AC68F?E2CD6 4FT=6D D6CV2?
=2D 4@?D64F6?4:2D A2C2 6==@D 6? F? >F?5@ :?E6C56A6?5:6?E6 4@>@ 6= 24EF2=
2 EC2GUD 56= 4@>6C4:@ :?E6C?24:@?2= D: =@D A2VD6D BF6 J2 92? 2=42?K25@ F?
?:G6= 56 3:6?6DE2C >2E6C:2= C2K@?23=6 C2=6?E:K2D6? DF 4C64:>:6?E@ ? 4@?
D64F6?4:2 ,CBF:5: 4@?4=FV2 BF6 P4@?DE:EF:CT F?2 6E2A2 :?5:DA6?D23=6 56
=@D ?F6G@D 2?T=:D:D BF6 D6 9282? 0   1 N56D28C682CO =@D >@56=@D 8=@32=6DQ
$625@HD 6E 2=   A  
,?2 G6K D6W2=252 6DE2 =:>:E24:X? AC6D6?E6 6? 6= 6DEF5:@ 4@CC6DA@?56
:?:4:2C F?2 C6G:D:X? 56 =@ BF6 D@? AC@A:2>6?E6 =2D 4CVE:42D BF6 D6 A=2?E62C@?
2 =@D C6DF=E25@D 56= >@56=@ 8=@32= .@C=5  6 24F6C5@ 2 2CA:?E6C@ 
=2D 4CVE:42D 56 =@D 56EC24E@C6D 56 =2D 4@?4=FD:@?6D 56= AC:>6C :?7@C>6 56=
=F3 56 )@>2 D6 AF656? C6DF>:C 6? EC6D 2C8F>6?E@D AC:?4:A2=6D ? AC:>6C
=F82C UDE2D D6 46?EC232? 6? 56DE242C =2 2FD6?4:2 56 4@?D:56C24:X? 6? 6= :?

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

91

7@C>6 56 =@D >642?:D>@D 56= >6C425@ A2C2 C68F=2C =@D AC@3=6>2D 56 6D42D6K
? D68F?5@ =F82C D6 4C:E:4X 6= >6?@DAC64:@ 6? 6= 6DEF5:@ 2 =2 42A24:525
56 =2 E64?@=@8V2 J DF AC@8C6D@ A2C2 DFDE:EF:C F?@D >2E6C:2=6D A@C @EC@D 
:?2=>6?E6 6I:DE6 F?2 E6C46C2 =V?62 56 2C8F>6?E@D 6? 4@?EC2 56 =@D C6
DF=E25@D 56 " +#"  !# BF6 D6 C6L6C6? 2 =2 D@=:56K 56 =@D
DFAF6DE@D 56 A2CE:52 BF6 D6 FE:=:K2C@? 6? 6= >@56=@ 8=@32= .@C=5 J BF6 2=
8F?@D 64@?@>:DE2D 4@>@ '2F= *2>F6=D@? J .:==:2> %@C592FD 4F6DE:@?2C@?
23:6CE2>6?E6 2CA:?E6C@ 
? 56L?:E:G2 =2D 5@D 4CVE:42D >TD C6=6G2?E6D 2AF?E232? 2 BF6 6= A@56C
56 =2 E64?@=@8V2 J 56= =:3C6 >6C425@ ?@ 923V2? D:5@ 2 ;F:4:@ 56 6DE@D 4CVE:4@D
4@?D:56C25@D A2C2 6=23@C2C 6= :?7@C>6 =@ BF6 D6 2C8F>6?E232 6G:56?4:232
=2 2FD6?4:2 56 64@?@>:DE2D 6? 6= 6BF:A@ 56 :?G6DE:824:X? 56= $ + J =2D
42C6?4:2D 56 F? :?7@C>6 BF6 AC6E6?5V2 @3E6?6C 4@?4=FD:@?6D D@3C6 =@D >@5@D
56 AC@5F44:X? J 4@?DF>@ 56 =2 D@4:6525 D:? 4@?DF=E2C 2 =@D 6IA6CE@D 6? 6DE2
>2E6C:2 2CA:?E6C@  .6:=  
@?G:6?6 AF6D 2?2=:K2C 4252 F?2 56 =2D 4CVE:42D BF6 7F6C@? A=2?E6252D
A@C =@D 64@?@>:DE2D A2C2 EC2E2C 56 EC26C 2=8@ 56 =FK 2= 5632E6 BF6 DFD4:EX =2
AF3=:424:X? 56 =@D C6DF=E25@D 56= 6DEF5:@ ? AC:>6C =F82C D6 C6AC@49X F?
56D4@?@4:>:6?E@ 56= >642?:D>@ 56= >6C425@ 2?E6 76?X>6?@D 56 6D42D6K #2
E6@CV2 64@?X>:42 A=2?E62 BF6 4F2?5@ F? 56E6C>:?25@ AC@5F4E@ D6 GF6=G6
6D42D@ D6 6?42C646 J 6D6 2F>6?E@ 6? 6= AC64:@ EC2?D>:E6 F?2 D6W2= E2?E@ 2
=@D AC@5F4E@C6D BF6 FE:=:K2? 6D6 AC@5F4E@ 6? DF AC@46D@ AC@5F4E:G@ 4@>@ 2
=@D 4@?DF>:5@C6D BF6 =@ 56>2?52? A2C2 42>3:2C DFD A2FE2D 56 AC@5F44:X?
J 4@?DF>@ DE6 >642?:D>@ A6C>:E:CV2 BF6 2?E6 76?X>6?@D 56 6D42D6K E2=6D
4@>@ =@D A=2?E625@D A@C 6= :?7@C>6 $625@HD =@D 286?E6D 64@?X>:4@D >@5:
L42D6? DFD A2FE2D 56 AC@5F44:X? J 4@?DF>@ J 56 6DE2 7@C>2 D6 6G:E2CV2 F?

+2= J 4@>@ C64@?@4V2? =@D 2FE@C6D 56= :?7@C>6 $625@HD 6E 2=   A   P? 6=
>@56=@ >F?5:2= ?@ 2A2C646 ?:?8F?2 G2C:23=6 32;@ 6= CF3C@ NE64?@=@8V2O %@D 92 D:5@
:>A@D:3=6 DF>2C J 86?6C2=:K2C =2D :>A=:424:@?6D 5:?T>:42D 56= 56D2CC@==@ E64?@=X8:4@
A@CBF6 56 D64E@C6D >FJ 5:76C6?E6 56= >@56=@ DFC86? E64?@=@8V2D E2>3:U? 5:76C6?E6D BF6
:?MFJ6? D@3C6 6==@D #@D 2?E:4@?46AE:G@D =2D D6>:==2D 56 2=E@ C6?5:>:6?E@ =2 E6=6G:D:X?
J =@D A@K@D 56 A6ECX=6@ 6? 2=E2 >2C AF656? 4@?D:56C2CD6 56D2CC@==@D E64?@=X8:4@D A6C@
4252 F?@ 56 6==@D 56D6>A6W2 F? A2A6= 5:76C6?E6 6? =2 2=E6C24:X? 56= 4@>A@CE2>:6?E@ 56=
D:DE6>2 >F?5:2=Q 9@C2 3:6? 6DE@ ?@ :>A=:42 BF6 ?@ D6 92J2 4@?D:56C25@ 6= 2G2?46 56
=2 E64?@=@8V2 6? 6= :?7@C>6 4F6DE:X? BF6 D6 6IA@?6 6? 56E2==6 2 4@?E:?F24:X?

92

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

28@E2>:6?E@ 56 =@D C64FCD@D


'2F= *2>F6=D@? AC@76D@C J 7F?525@C 56= AC6DE:8:@D@ 6A2CE2>6?E@ 56
4@?@>V2 56= $ + J AC6>:@ %@36= 56 4@?@>V2 6?    C6M6I:@?232 6?
 D@3C6 6DE2 4F6DE:X? 6? =2 ?@G6?2 65:4:X? 56 DF 72>@D@ =:3C@ "
4@? 6= BF6 D6 92? 7@C>25@ 56D56 L?2=6D 56 =@D 2W@D 
G2C:2D 86?6C24:@?6D
56 64@?@>:DE2D
*@? A@4@D 0   1 BF:6?6D 56DAFUD 56 6I2>:?2C =2D 64F24:@?6D J
=2D 7F6?E6D 56 :?7@C>24:X? 56 =@D EC232;@D 56 @CC6DE6C J $62
5@HD A2C2 6= =F3 56 )@>2 AF656? 246AE2C BF6 6? 6==@D D6 92
42AE25@ 56 7@C>2 C62=:DE2 6= A2ECX? >TD G6C@DV>:= 56= 7FEFC@  
8?@C2? 42D: A@C 4@>A=6E@ =@ BF6 =2 6D42D6K :?5F4:CT A2C2 42>
3:2C =@D AC64:@D C6=2E:G@D 2DV 4@>@ =@ BF6 6D@D AC64:@D EC2?D7@C
>25@D 92CT? A2C2 6DE:>F=2C DFDE:EF4:@?6D J A2=:2C 6D42D646D 
A6D2C 56 E@5@ 6? 6D@D 6DEF5:@D D6 DF3C2J2? 2=8F?@D AC@3=6>2D
BF6 D:8?:L42? :>A65:>6?E@D C62=6D *2>F6=D@?   4:E25@ A@C
+2>2>6D 
 A 
'@4@ 56DAFUD 6?   *2>F6=D@? :?D:DE6 6? 6= >:D>@ 2C8F>6?E@ 6? F?
=:3C@ E:EF=25@ # "!  !# 6= 4F2= C64@8V2 F?2 4@=644:X? 56
6?EC6G:DE2D C62=:K252D 2 5:G6CD@D A6?D25@C6D P6? 6= >F?5@ C62= 4F2?5@ =@D
C64FCD@D 4@>:6?K2? 2 6D42D62C J =@D 4F6==@D 56 3@E6==2 56= 2AC@G:D:@?2>:6?E@
4@>:6?K2? 2 =6?E:L42C =2D E2D2D 56 4C64:>:6?E@ 4@>@ @4FCC6 6? =2 D:>F
=24:X? 56 @CC6DE6C =@D AC64:@D 4@?4C6E@D DF36?Q *2>F6=D@?   4:E25@
6? 2CA:?E6C@  A   '@C DF A2CE6 )@36CE *@=@H 
 4:E25@ 6?
2CA:?E6C@  A  6IAC6DX =2 >:D>2 :562
= AC:?4:A2= 56764E@ 56 =@D >@56=@D 56 @CC6DE6C$625@HD 6D
=2 2FD6?4:2 56 4F2=BF:6C E:A@ 56 7F?4:@?2>:6?E@ 56= D:DE6>2 56
AC64:@D %@ 4C6@ BF6 6= D:DE6>2 56 AC64:@D 7F?4:@?6 D:6>AC6 4@
CC64E2>6?E6 J 4:6CE2>6?E6 ?@ 23@8@ A@C 6= =2:DD6K72:C6 6? 2BF6
==2D D:EF24:@?6D C676C6?E6D 2= >65:@ 2>3:6?E6 '6C@ 6= D:DE6>2 56


= AC@76D@C *2>F6=D@? 7F6 6= AC:>6C 6DE25@F?:56?D6 82=2C5@?25@ 4@? 6= AC6>:@ %@36=


56 4@?@>V2

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

93

AC64:@D 6D 56DAFUD 56 E@5@ =2 AC:?4:A2= :?DE:EF4:X? D@4:2= 56


D2CC@==252 A@C =2D 64@?@>V2D 42A:E2=:DE2D     A2C2 C68:DEC2C J
C6244:@?2C 2?E6 =2 6D42D6K C6=2E:G2
? DF>2 D:? 56D>6C646C =2 42A24:525 6IA=:42E:G2 56 6DE6 C2K@?2>:6?
E@ A2C2 >F492D D:EF24:@?6D 56 =2 G:52 4@?G:6?6 D6W2=2C BF6 =2 6G:56?4:2
C64@8:52 D@3C6 =2 6G@=F4:X? 56 =@D AC64:@D 56 F?2 8C2? 42?E:525 56 C64FC
D@D ?@ C6?@G23=6D 4@>@ 6= 42C3X? 6= A6ECX=6@ 6= 9:6CC@ J =@D >6E2=6D ?@
7UCC:4@D 56D56 L?2=6D 56= D:8=@ / / 92DE2 =2 24EF2=:525 ?@ 92 @36564:5@ 2=
4@>A@CE2>:6?E@ BF6 =2 E6@CV2 AC64@?:K2 2CA:?E6C@  .6:=   DV
=2 6G@=F4:X? 56 =@D AC64:@D ?@ 92 C6M6;25@ BF6 6DE@D C64FCD@D 6?6C8UE:4@D J
>:?6C2=6D D62? 6? =2 24EF2=:525 >6?@D 23F?52?E6D BF6 4F2?5@ 4@>6?KX DF
FE:=:K24:X? >2D:G2 6? =2D D@4:65256D :?5FDEC:2=6D >@56C?2D D:?@ BF6 A@C 6=
4@?EC2C:@ =2 42V52 56 =@D AC64:@D 6D F? C6DF=E25@ 56= 6DE25@ 56 =2 E64?@=@8V2
J =2 @C82?:K24:X? D@4:2= BF6 A6C>:E6? 6IA=@E2C P?F6G@DQ J24:>:6?E@D BF6
?@ 6C2? C6?E23=6D 6? 6= A2D25@
6 6DE2 7@C>2 C6DF=E2 G:23=6 A2C2 D24:2C =2 D65 56 A6ECX=6@ 56 =2D >@
56C?2D D@4:65256D :?5FDEC:2=6D A6C7@C2C J24:>:6?E@D A6EC@=V76C@D BF6 D6 6?
4F6?EC2? 4252 G6K >TD AC@7F?5@D @ EC2?D7@C>2C >65:2?E6 F? AC@46D@ BF6
?646D:E2 6?@C>6D 42?E:5256D 56 6?6C8V2 J BF6 256>TD 6D 2=E2>6?E6 4@?E2
>:?2?E6 =2D 2C6?2D 3:EF>:?@D2D 6? A6ECX=6@ 4CF5@ 4@? =@D 4@?D:8F:6?E6D
C:6D8@D >65:@2>3:6?E2=6D "F?K:8 
? 4F2=BF:6C 42D@ =@ BF6 6D 6G:56?E6 6D BF6 2= EC2E2CD6 56 C64FCD@D ?@
C6?@G23=6D 2= >6?@D A2C2 =@D C:E>@D 56 6IEC244:X? J 4@?DF>@ 56 =2 64@?@>V2
9F>2?2 =2 42?E:525 5:DA@?:3=6 @ 6? @EC2D A2=23C2D 6= DE@4< >F?5:2= 56 =2D
C6D6CG2D 6D 4252 G6K >6?@C A@C =@ BF6 56 24F6C5@ 2 =2 E6@CV2 64@?X>:42
=@D AC64:@D 5636CV2? DF3:C *:? 6>32C8@ 6D@ ?@ 6D =@ BF6 92 DF465:5@ E2= J
4@>@ D6 56DAC6?56 56 =2 :?7@C>24:X? 56 =2 6G@=F4:X? 56 =@D AC64:@D 56 6DE@D
C64FCD@D
#2 AC:>6C2 56 =2D 4CVE:42D 6? 56L?:E:G2 2CC2DEC2 F?2 96C6?4:2 2?2=VE:42

-2=6 C64@C52C 6= G6CE:5@ BF6 D6 AC@5F;@ 6? 6= @=7@ 56 $UI:4@ 4@>@ 4@?D64F6?4:2 56=
244:56?E6 56 =2 A=2E27@C>2 56 6IEC244:X? 56 A6ECX=6@ 66AH2E6C @C:K@? @A6C25@ A@C =2
A6EC@=6C2 3C:ET?:42 ' 6? 23C:= 56

 BF6 D6 4@?G:CE:X 6? 6= A6@C 56CC2>6 6? =2 9:DE@C:2
56  ,, @FC?6



94

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

AC@A:2 56 =2 64@?@>V2 ?6@4=TD:42 6? =2 BF6 =@D AC@46D@D 56 252AE24:X? GV2


AC64:@D D@? 7F?52>6?E2=6D *:? 6>32C8@ 4@>@ D6W2=X 6= 64@?@>:DE2 =2?
@55:?8E@?
#@ :?E6C6D2?E6 56= >@56=@ 56 " +#"  !# 6DEC:32
:?5F523=6>6?E6 6? =2 :>A@CE2?4:2 BF6 2EC:3FJ6 2 =@D AC@46D@D
56 2FE@CC67F6CK@ 0@ C6EC@2=:>6?E24:X?1 6? 56EC:>6?E@ 56 =@D AC@
46D@D 56 252AE24:X? 0GV2 AC64:@D1 BF6 4@?DE:EFJ6? 6= AF?E@ 7@42=
56 =2 64@?@>V2 ?6@4=TD:42 FT= 56 =@D 5@D AC@46D@D C6DF=E6 >TD
A@56C@D@ 2 =2 =2C82 6D F?2 :?E6C6D2?E6 6 :>A@CE2?E6 4F6DE:X?
4FJ2 D@=F4:X? ?@ AF656 D:>A=6>6?E6 A@DEF=2CD6 ? A2CE:4F=2C
?@ A@56>@D 52C A@C D6?E25@ BF6 =@D AC@46D@D 56 2FE@CC67F6CK@
BF6 24EY2? 6? " +#"  !# ?@ >6C6K42? 6DEF5:2C
D6 A@C =2 D:>A=6 C2KX? 56 BF6 6I:DE6? AC@46D@D 56 252AE24:X?
):649>2?? 
 A  
? D68F?5@ =F82C D6 4C:E:4X =2 ?@ 4@?D:56C24:X? 2 =2 42A24:525 56 =2
E64?@=@8V2 J DF AC@8C6D@ A2C2 DFDE:EF:C F?@D >2E6C:2=6D A@C @EC@D @?
G:6?6 C64@C52C BF6 6= 6DEF5:@ " +#"  !# :?4=FV2 F? 42AVEF
=@ 6= 4F2CE@ 56= :?7@C>6 6?E6C2>6?E6 565:425@ 2 6DE2 4F6DE:X? 6= 4F2= ==6G2
A@C ?@>3C6 P#2 E64?@=@8V2 J =@D =V>:E6D 56= 4C64:>:6?E@Q 56>TD C6DF=E2
4F2?5@ >6?@D 6IEC2W@ BF6 D6 24FD6 2 =@D :?G6DE:825@C6D C6DA@?D23=6D 56= :?
7@C>6 56 DF36DE:>2C 6= AC@8C6D@ E64?@=X8:4@ 4F2?5@ AC@G:6?6? 56= CFA@ 56
:?T>:42 56 *:DE6>2D 56 =2 *=@2? *49@@= @7 $2?286>6?E 56= $2DD249FD6EED
?DE:EFE6 @7 +649?@=@8J $ + 6D 564:C 56 F?2 56 =2D F?:G6CD:5256D >TD
AC6DE:8:@D2D 6? 6= T>3:E@ 56 =2 E64?@=@8V2 ):649>2?? 
 %@ @3DE2?E6
>TD 2==T 56 =2 2?U45@E2 A2C646 BF6 6? 6DE6 42>A@ 56 5:D4FD:X? =2D 5:76
C6?4:2D 6?EC6 =2D A@DEFC2D 56 F?@D J @EC@D D6 6?4F6?EC2? A@C F? =25@ 6? =2
4@?L2?K2 BF6 D6 E6?82 6? =2 42A24:525 56 =2 9F>2?:525 A2C2 6?7C6?E2C =@D
56D27V@D 7FEFC@D J A@C @EC@ =25@ 6? =2 4@?46A4:X? D@3C6 6= A2A6= BF6 E:6?6
6= D6C 9F>2?@ 6= C6DE@ 56 =2D 6DA64:6D J =@D 64@D:DE6>2D 6? 6= >F?5@
? C6=24:X? 2 =2 AC:>6C2 56 =2D 5:D4C6A2?4:2D 2AF?E252D 6D 564:C 2BF6
==2 BF6 8:C2 D@3C6 =2 4@?L2?K2 6? 6= A@56C 56 =2 E64?@=@8V2 4236 D6W2=2C
BF6 =2 A@=U>:42 6? E@C?@ 2 " +#"  !# 86?6CX 5@D A@DEFC2D

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

95

:?E6=64EF2=6D 6?7C6?E252D 2CA:?E6C@  FCT?   6 F?2 A2CE6 D6


6?4F6?EC2? =@D 4@C?F4@A:2?@D BF6 4@?7V2? 6? =2 :?G6?E:G2 9F>2?2 A2C2 D@=F
4:@?2C E@5@D =@D AC@3=6>2D 64@=X8:4@D@4:2=6D
 6 =2 @EC2 =@D ?6@>2=E9F
D:2?@D 4@?D:56C2? BF6 =2D 5:L4F=E256D BF6 E:6?6 BF6 6?7C6?E2C =2 9F>2?:525
D@? 4252 G6K >TD 4@>A=6;2D J 5F52? BF6 =2D D@=F4:@?6D E64?@=X8:42D AF652?
C6D@=G6C =@D C6E@D BF6 A=2?E62 =2 24EF2= 6?4CF4:;252 64@=X8:42 2 ?F6DEC2 D@
4:6525
2DE2 C6G:D2C 4F2=BF:6C =:3C@ D@3C6 9:DE@C:2 56 =2 4:6?4:2 A2C2 4@?G6?46CD6
56 BF6 =2 4@?EC@G6CD:2 6D 6= AC:?4:A:@ C64E@C 56 =2 4:6?4:2 DF 2G2?46 6DET
A=2825@ 56 A@=U>:42D J ACT4E:42>6?E6 E@5@D =@D E6>2D J 4F6DE:@?6D D@?
@3;6E@ 56 F? :?E6?D@ 5632E6 6 24F6C5@ 2 =@D C64@?@4:5@D 9:DE@C:25@C6D 56
=2 4:6?4:2 3C:ET?:4@D '6E6C @H=6C 6 H2? )9JD $@CFD   AA   
 >65:52 BF6 =2 4:6?4:2 92 :5@ 56D6>A6W2?5@ F? A2A6= 4252 G6K
>TD :>A@CE2?E6 6? ?F6DEC2D G:52D =2D A@D:3:=:5256D 56 A@=U>:42
D6 92? :5@ 2>A=:2?5@ 56 E2= >@5@ BF6 29@C2 :?4=FJ6? ?F6DEC2
42A24:525 A2C2 :?E6C76C:C 6? =@D 2DA64E@D 6D6?4:2=6D 56 ?F6DEC2
?2EFC2=6K2 3:@=X8:42 J AD:4@=X8:42 6 :?4=FD@ 6? =2 AC@A:2 3:@D76C2
56= A=2?6E2 6 9649@ D6CV2 F?2 D@CAC6D2 BF6 =2 9:DE@C:2 56 6DE2D
TC62D 56 =2 4:6?4:2 ?@ 7F6C2 4@?EC@G6CE:52
:6CE2>6?E6 6= AC@8C6D@ 56 =2 4:6?4:2 92 2=42?K25@ =@8C@D 2D@>3C@D@D
BF6 92? 2764E25@ 2 ?F6DEC2D G:52D J 92? EC2?D7@C>25@ 4@>A=6E2>6?E6 ?F6D
EC2 4:G:=:K24:X? -2=6 564:C BF6 =2 9:DE@C:2 56 =@D 2= >6?@D Y=E:>@D EC6D4:6?
E@D 2W@D 92 D:5@ EC6>6?52>6?E6 6I:E@D2 A2C2 =2 9F>2?:525 P6? DF =F492
4@?EC2 =@D =V>:E6D 2A2C6?E6D 56 =2 A@3=24:X? J 6= 4C64:>:6?E@ 64@?X>:4@Q
$625@HD 6E 2=   A   A@C =@ BF6 2=8F?@D @A:?2? BF6 C6DF=E2 ?2
EFC2= A6?D2C BF6 6DE@D =@8C@D >2E6C:2=:K25@D 2 EC2GUD 56= 2G2?46 E64?@=X8:4@
D68F:CT? AC@5F4:U?5@D6 6? 6= 7FEFC@ D@D=2J2?5@ :?56L?:52>6?E6 =2 4F6DE:X?
56 =@D =V>:E6D 7VD:4@D 2= 4C64:>:6?E@ 56 =2 A@3=24:X? J =2 64@?@>V2 >2E6C:2=
@? 6= AC@AXD:E@ 56 2?2=:K2C =2 G:23:=:525 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 6IA@?6?4:2=
56= D:DE6>2 >F?5:2= 6? " +#"  !# =@D $625@HD >@5:L

6 24F6C5@ 2 =2 )62= 4256>:2 DA2W@=2 =2 4@C?F4@A:2 6D F? G2D@ 6? 7@C>2 56


4F6C?@ BF6 C6AC6D6?E2 =2 23F?52?4:2 HHHC266D

96

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

42? F?2 D6C:6 56 C6DF=E25@D BF6 923V2? @3E6?:5@ :?:4:2=>6?E6 6? DF >@56=@


A2C2 2?2=:K2C BFU DF4656CV2 6? 6= 42D@ 56 BF6 =@D P@AE:>:DE2D E64?@=X8:
4@DQ EFG:6D6? C2KX? ? AC:>6C =F82C 6=:>:?2? 56= >@56=@ =2 A@D:3:=:525
56 BF6 D6 AC@5FK42 F?2 6D42D6K 56 C64FCD@D DE@ D6 C62=:K2 6DE23=64:6?
5@ 5@D 9:AXE6D:D PAC:>6C@ BF6 =2 6?6C8V2 ?F4=62C N:=:>:E252O 5FA=:42CT =2D
C6D6CG2D 56 C64FCD@D 6IA=@E23=6D J D68F?5@ BF6 =2 6?6C8V2 ?F4=62C A@D:3:=:
E2CT =2 6=23@C24:X? J =2 C62=:K24:X? 56 AC@8C2>2D 56 DFDE:EF4:X? J C64:4=2;6Q
$625@HD 6E 2=   A   ? 6D6 DFAF6DE@
#2 4C64:6?E6 4@?E2>:?24:X? 6D =2 BF6 7C6?2 6= 4C64:>:6?E@ 0   1
DV A2C646CV2 BF6 =@D C64FCD@D P:=:>:E25@DQ ?@ D@? =2 4=2G6 56=
4C64:>:6?E@ D@DE6?:5@ 6? 6= D:DE6>2 >F?5:2= '@C =@ G:DE@ D:
BF6C6>@D 6G:E2C 6= 4@=2AD@ 56= D:DE6>2 6= V>A6EF 64@?X>:4@
BF6 A6C>:E6 =2 5:DA@?:3:=:525 56 C64FCD@D 5636 :C 2A2C6;25@ 4@?
7C6?@D 2 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? $625@HD 6E 2=   A  
? D68F?5@ =F82C D6 4@?D:56C2 6= 4@?EC@= 56 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? *6 2DF>6
BF6 P6D AC@323=6 BF6 F?2 D@4:6525 >F?5:2= 4@? 6?6C8V2 ?F4=62C >FJ 2446
D:3=6 AF652 4@?EC@=2C 2 EC2GUD 56 >65:@D E64?@=X8:4@D =2 86?6C24:X? 56 4@?
E2>:?24:X? :?5FDEC:2=Q $625@HD 6E 2=   A   9@C2 3:6? A2C646
A@4@ AC@323=6 BF6 6= 4@?EC@= 56 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? D62 E@E2= 525@D =@D @3D
ET4F=@D ?@ DX=@ E64?@=X8:4@D D:?@ E2>3:U? 64@?X>:4@D 56 ==6G2C 2 423@ F?
AC@46D@ 4@>A=6E@ 56 C65F44:X? 56 6>:D:@?6D 4@?E2>:?2?E6D D 564:C 92J
BF6 4@?D:56C2C BF6 6= 4@?EC@= 56 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? 6=6G2 =@D 4@DE@D 56 =@D
286?E6D 64@?X>:4@D 56>TD 2 >65:52 BF6 6= 4@?EC@= 56 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X?
2F>6?E2 =@D 4@DE@D 56 C62=:K2C E2= C65F44:X? 2F>6?E2? 56 >2?6C2 6IA@?6?
4:2=  '@C E2?E@ =@D :?G6DE:825@C6D 56= :?7@C>6 DFA@?6? 6? =2 >@5:L424:X?
56 =@D C6DF=E25@D @C:8:?2=6D 56= >@56=@ BF6 D6 AC@5F46 2 A2CE:C 56 

DE6 DFAF6DE@ 6D A6C764E2>6?E6 =X8:4@ AF6DE@ BF6 4F2?5@ =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? 6D >FJ


6=6G252 C65F4:C=2 F? A@4@ 4F6DE2 >6?@D BF6 4F2?5@ =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? 6D >FJ 32;2 J
BF6C6>@D 6=:>:?2C=2 E@E2=>6?E6 D 564:C 6? F?2 D:EF24:X? 56 6>:D:@?6D :?4@?EC@=252D
D6 AF656? 7T4:=>6?E6 2A=:42C 5:DE:?E2D >65:52D 86?6C2=6D A2C2 C65F4:C =2 4@?E2>:?24:X?
,?2 G6K BF6 6DE2D J2 D6 92? 2A=:425@ J 92? E6?:5@ F? 6764E@ A@D:E:G@ 6? 6= 4@?EC@= 56 =2
4@?E2>:?24:X? 6=:>:?2C =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? BF6 A6CD:DE6 C6BF:6C6 56 >65:52D >TD 4@?4C6E2D
J E2>3:U? >TD 4@DE@D2D

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

97

F?2 C65F44:X? 56 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? A@C F?:525 56 AC@5F44:X? :?5FDEC:2= J


28CV4@=2 56 F?   4@? C6DA64E@ 2= ?:G6= 56   P*FA@?6>@D BF6 6D2 C6
5F44:X? E2? >2C4252 56 =2 86?6C24:X? A@5CV2 52CD6 8=@32= J CTA:52>6?E6 2
L? 56 6IA6C:>6?E2C 4@? 6= >@56=@ >2D ?@ A@CBF6 4C62>@D BF6 D62 A@=VE:42
>6?E6 A@D:3=6 5252D =2D :?DE:EF4:@?6D AC6G2=64:6?E6DQ $625@HD 6E 2=  
A  
? 4@?4=FD:X? D: D6 6=:>:?232 6= AC@3=6>2 56 28@E2>:6?E@ 56 =@D C64FC
D@D J 256>TD D6 6=:>:?232 6= AC@3=6>2 56 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? 56 =2D AC@5F4
4:@?6D :?5FDEC:2=6D J 28CV4@=2D 6? F?2 4F2CE2 A2CE6 2 A2CE:C 56   PE@52GV2
@A6C2 6= >@5@ 56 4@>A@CE2>:6?E@ 42C24E6C:K25@ A@C 6IEC2=:>:E24:X? J 6DE2
G6K 6= 4@=2AD@ 2A2C646 6? G:CEF5 56 =2 6D42D6K 56 2=:>6?E@DQ $625@HD 6E
2=   A  
? E6C46C =F82C A@C E2?E@ A2C2 6G:E2C 6DE6 Y=E:>@ 7C6?@ D6 6=:>:?232
6= AC@3=6>2 56 =2 6D42D6K 56 2=:>6?E@D J 6= 6I46D@ 56 A@3=24:X? :?4@CA@
C2?5@ =@D DFAF6DE@D 56 :?4C6>6?E@ 56 =@D C6?5:>:6?E@D 56 =2 AC@5F44:X?
56 2=:>6?E@D J =2 A=2?:L424:X? 72>:=:2C ? 6DE2 @42D:X? =@D :?G6DE:825@C6D
AC6D6?E232? EC6D A@D:3=6D 6D46?2C:@D ? F? AC:>6C >@>6?E@ D6 DFA@?V2
BF6 =@D C64FCD@D D@? P:=:>:E25@DQ D6 C65F4V2 2 A2CE:C 56  =2 4@?E2>:
?24:X? 56 =2 AC@5F44:X? :?5FDEC:2= J 28CV4@=2 6? F?2 4F2CE2 A2CE6 56= ?:G6=
56   J 256>TD D6 :?4C6>6?E232 2 A2CE:C 56  6= C6?5:>:6?E@ 56 =2
AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D 6? F?   
#2 4@>3:?24:X? 56 6DE2D EC6D A@=VE:42D 6=:>:?2 E2?E@D @3DET4F=@D 2= 4C64:
>:6?E@ BF6 =2 A@3=24:X? J =2 :?5FDEC:2 2=42?K2? ?:G6=6D >FJ 2=E@D F?BF6
4252 F?:525 56 AC@5F4E@ :?5FDEC:2= 86?6C2 >F492 >6?@D 4@?E2>:?24:X? =2
AC@5F44:X? E@E2= 2F>6?E2 =@ 32DE2?E6 4@>@ A2C2 4C62C F?2 4C:D:D 56 4@?E2
>:?24:X? BF6 A@?6 L? 2= 4C64:>:6?E@ $625@HD 6E 2=   A  

@?G:6?6 C64@C52C BF6 6? =2 76492 56 AF3=:424:X? 56= 6DEF5:@ J2 D6 923V2 AC@5F4:5@
=2 56?@>:?252 PC6G@=F4:X? G6C56Q A@C =@ BF6 =@D :?G6DE:825@C6D ?@ D@? 2;6?@D 2 6DE2
C62=:525 6 9649@ 56 24F6C5@ 2 DFD @3D6CG24:@?6D 6= >@56=@ @C:8:?2= :?4@CA@C2 6? DFD
64F24:@?6D 6= 56D2CC@==@ 56 ?F6G2D G2C:65256D 56 46C62=6D 56 2=E@ C6?5:>:6?E@ #@ BF6
D6 A=2?E6232 6? 6DE6 AF?E@ 6C2 BF6 =2 6DE:>24:X? @C:8:?2= 56= 2G2?46 E64?@=X8:4@ A2C2
2F>6?E2C =2 AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D C62=:K252 A@C 6= 6BF:A@ 56 :?G6DE:824:X? 56= :?7@C>6
7F6D6 56>2D:25@ 32;2 #@D AC@A:@D 2FE@C6D 56= :?7@C>6 $625@HD >@5:L42? 6DE6 DFAF6DE@
:?4@CA@C2?5@ PF?2 >2J@C 5:7FD:X? 56 =@D AC:?4:A:@D 56 =2 )6G@=F4:X? -6C56Q $625@HD
6E 2=   A  

98

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

? F? D68F?5@ >@>6?E@ D6 DFDE:EFJX =2 6=:>:?24:X? 56= 7C6?@ 6? =2 AC@


5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D A@C 6= 4@?EC@= 56 =2 ?2E2=:525 D 564:C 2 =@D DFAF6DE@D
J2 4@?@4:5@D 56 C64FCD@D P:=:>:E25@DQ J 4@?EC@= 56 =2 4@?E2>:?24:X? D6 :?
4@CA@CX 6= DFAF6DE@ 56 BF6 D6 :>A=6>6?E2 F?2 A@=VE:42 6764E:G2 56 C68F=24:X?
56 =2 ?2E2=:525 BF6 D: 3:6? ?@ 6=:>:?232 4@>A=6E2>6?E6 6= 4C64:>:6?E@ 56
=2 A@3=24:X? DV BF6 4@?D68FV2 BF6 UDE2 4C64:6D6 4@? >TD =6?E:EF5 4@? =2
4@?D:8F:6?E6 5:D>:?F4:X? 56 =2 AC6D:X? 56 =2 A@3=24:X? A@C =@D 2=:>6?E@D
? 6DE6 42D@ ?F6G2>6?E6 =2 4C:D:D 56 2=:>6?E@D D6 4@?DE:EFV2 4@>@ =V>:E6
2F?BF6 UDE6 D6 2A=2K232  X  2W@D 4@? C6DA64E@ 2= >@56=@ @C:8:?2=
:?2=>6?E6 6? F? E6C46C >@>6?E@ D6 :?4@CA@C232? D:>F=ET?62>6?E6
=@D DFAF6DE@D 56 :?4C6>6?E@ 56 =@D C6?5:>:6?E@D 56 =2 AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?
E@D J =2 A=2?:L424:X? 72>:=:2C D 564:C D6 :?EC@5F4V2? 6? 6= >@56=@ >F?5:2=
4F2EC@ A@=VE:42D E64?@=X8:42D D:>F=ET?62D C64FCD@D P:=:>:E25@DQ 4@?EC@= 56
=2 4@?E2>:?24:X? 2F>6?E@ 56 =2 AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D J 4@?EC@= 56 =2
A@3=24:X? 6 6DE2 7@C>2 D6 EC2E232 56 6DBF:G2C 56 2=8F?2 >2?6C2 =@D 5:G6C
D@D =V>:E6D 2= 4C64:>:6?E@ = D:DE6>2 56= >@56=@ AC@5F46 6?6C8V2 ?F4=62C
C64:4=2 =@D C64FCD@D J 6IA=@E2 =2D C6D6CG2D >:?6C2D >TD C6>@E2D 4@?EC@=2
E2?E@D 4@?E2>:?2?E6D 4@>@ D62 A@D:3=6 @3E:6?6 C6?5:>:6?E@D :?D@DA6492
5@D 56 =2 E:6CC2 J AC@5F46 Y?:42>6?E6 ?:W@D 56D625@D A@C DFD A25C6D F?
2DV 6= C6DF=E25@ GF6=G6 2 D6C 6= L? 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 2?E6D 56= 2W@

 ?
6DE6 42D@ EC6D 4C:D:D D:>F=ET?62D 7C6?2? 6= 4C64:>:6?E@ = FD@ 6I286C25@ 56
=2 E:6CC2 AC@G@42 =2 6C@D:X? J =2 5:D>:?F4:X? 56 =2 AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D
F?2 A@3=24:X? ACXDA6C2 A6C@ ?@ E2? ACXDA6C2 4@>@ =2 24EF2= A@3=24:X? 56
DE25@D ,?:5@D AC@G@42 F? 8C2G6 28@E2>:6?E@ 56 =@D C64FCD@D
#2 4@?E2>:?24:X? D6 6=6G2 426 J =F68@ DF36 @EC2 G6K 5C2>TE:42>6?E6 J
AC@G@42 F?2 5:D>:?F4:X? >2J@C 56 =2 AC@5F44:X? 56 2=:>6?E@D J F?2 DY3:E2
6=6G24:X? 56 =2 E2D2 56 >@CE2=:525 #2 D@=2 2A=:424:X? 56 D@=F4:@?6D E64
?@=X8:42D 92 AC@=@?825@ 6= A6C:@5@ 56 4C64:>:6?E@ 56>@8CTL4@ 6 :?5FDEC:2=
A6C@ ?@ 92 56DA=2K25@ =@D =V>:E6D F=E6C:@C6D 56 6D6 4C64:>:6?E@ $625@HD
6E 2=   AA 
  
? 56L?:E:G2 6D >FJ 5:7V4:= D236C BFU DF4656CT 6? 6= 7FEFC@ #@ Y?:
4@ 4:6CE@ 6D BF6 =2 :?46CE:5F>3C6 ?@ 56D2A2C646 4@>A=6E2>6?E6 A6D6 2 =@D
6?@C>6D 2G2?46D 56 =2 4:6?4:2 ? 6DE6 4@?E6IE@ 4@?G:6?6 D:EF2C =2 C6M6I:X?
L=@DXL42 56 2?D !@?2D 6? C6=24:X? 2= 6;6C4:4:@ 56 =2 244:X? 56 C6DA@?D23:=:

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

99

525 J =2 2A=:424:X? 56= AC:?4:A:@ 56 AC642F4:X? 6? =@D BF6 6= D6C 9F>2?@


E:6?6 F? A2A6= AC:?4:A2= A2C2 D2=G2C 6= A=2?6E2 =5F?2E6  !@?2D

#2 E6@CV2 56 ;F68@D E2>3:U? 92 56D2CC@==25@ 6IA=:424:@?6D BF6 EC2E2?
56 24=2C2C BF6 =2D 6DEC2E68:2D C24:@?2=6D 6? 4@?E6IE@D 56 :?46CE:5F>3C6 D@?
2BF6==2D BF6 >2I:>:K2? 6= >TI:>@ 56 >V?:>@D A@D:3=6D @ >:?:>:K2? =2D
AUC5:52D :CC6G6CD:3=6D  '@C 6;6>A=@ 6? F?2 D:EF24:X? :?4:6CE2 A6C@ BF6
56 AC@5F4:CD6 A@5CV2 E6?6C F?@D C6DF=E25@D 42E2DECXL4@D A2C2 =2 G:52 6?
6= A=2?6E2 =@ C64@>6?523=6 56D56 F? AF?E@ 56 G:DE2 C24:@?2= D6CV2 D68F:C
F?2 6DEC2E68:2 ACF56?E6>6?E6 A6D:>:DE2 4@? 6= @3;6E:G@ 56 82C2?E:K2C 6=
>6?@C 52W@ A@D:3=6 @DE2?K2  6 24F6C5@ 2 =2 C24:@?2=:525 BF6
D6 56DAC6?56 56 =2 E6@CV2 56 ;F68@D D6CV2 :CC6DA@?D23=6 6? 6DE2 D:EF24:X?
4@?E:?F2C 24EF2?5@ 4@>@ D: ?@ DF465:6D6 ?252 6DA6C2?5@ BF6 F? :?G6?E@
?@D D2=G2D6 AF6DE@ BF6 56 ?@ 92==2C =2 7XC>F=2 >T8:42 2 E:6>A@ 6DE2CV2>@D
4@>@ 4:G:=:K24:X? 42G2?5@ ?F6DEC2 AC@A:2 EF>32

"% !"$ % #"%&$"$% *% *  "% , 


&% ( "% , &%  $ !&"  -"% %
#'+%

@D 5U4252D 56DAFUD 4@:?4:5:6?5@ 4@? =2 46=63C24:X? 56 =2 F>3C6 $F?5:2=


56 $65:@ >3:6?E6 J 6D2CC@==@ BF6 EFG@ =F82C 6? )V@ 56 !2?6:C@ =@D
$625@HD AF3=:42C@? F?2 C6G:D:X? 56 =@D C6DF=E25@D @3E6?:5@D 6?   6?
F? ?F6G@ :?7@C>6 BF6 D6 ==2>X *" *  " +#"  !#
? 6DE6 6DEF5:@ D6 24EF2=:KX 6= >@56=@ .@C=5 4@? =2 :?7@C>24:X? BF6 D6
56DAC6?5V2 56 =2 6G@=F4:X? 56 =2 5:?T>:42 56 =2 A@3=24:X? >F?5:2= J =2
64@?@>V2 >2E6C:2= 6? =@D 2W@D BF6 >65:232? 6?EC6 2>3@D :?7@C>6D ? 6DE2
@42D:X? D6 C62=:K2C@? 
AC@J644:@?6D 7C6?E6 2 =2D  56= :?7@C>6 2?E6C:@C
? 86?6C2= 6= 6DEF5:@ 4@?LC>232 =2D 4@?4=FD:@?6D 2=42?K252D 6? 6= :?
7@C>6 " +#"  !#   A6C@ 256>TD 2=F>3C232 F?
?F6G@ 92==2K8@ BF6 D6 56;232 6?EC6G6C 6? 6= EVEF=@ 56 =2 @3C2 6? 6= BF6 D6

 6DE2 6DEC2E68:2 D6 =2 56?@>:?2 >2I:>:? 6? =2 =:E6C2EFC2 6DA64:2=:K252

100

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

A=2?E6232 BF6 =2 9F>2?:525 923V2 D@3C6A2D25@ =@D =V>:E6D 56 =2 42A24:525


56 42C82 56= A=2?6E2 P=2 6IEC2=:>:E24:X? J2 6C2 F?2 C62=:525Q $625@HD 6E
2=   A   = >6?D2;6 6C2 4=2C@
#2 F>2?:525 92 D@3C6A2D25@ DFD =V>:E6D #2 7@C>2 24EF2= 56
9246C =2D 4@D2D 6D :?D@DE6?:3=6 ,? 7FEFC@ 5:8?@ 56 D6C G:G:5@
5636 4@?G6CE:CD6 6? F?2 UA@42 56 C6E:C252 6? =2 BF6 D6 56
D2?56 =@ 2?525@ 6? 4:6CE2D 5:C644:@?6D J D6 C6A2C6? =@D 52W@D
6>@D G:DE@ BF6 ?@ D6 AF656 A@?6C L? 2 =2 A@3C6K2 >65:2?E6
6= 4C64:>:6?E@ >2E6C:2= :?56L?:5@ 29@C2 E6?6>@D BF6 9246C=6
7C6?E6 >:6?EC2D =2 24E:G:525 64@?X>:42 D6 4@?EC26 $625@HD
$625@HD  )2?56CD  A 
'@C E2?E@ J2 ?@ 4@?D:DEV2 6? 6G:E2C =2 6IEC2=:>:E24:X? D:?@ 6? 4@?5F4:C
2 =2 9F>2?:525 56 GF6=E2 2 =2 D6?52 56 =2 DFDE6?E23:=:525 2 EC2GUD 56 F?2
A@=VE:42 8=@32= BF6 AC@>@G:6D6 6= 42>3:@ E64?@=X8:4@ :?DE:EF4:@?2= A@=VE:4@
64@?X>:4@ J 4F=EFC2=
#2D AC@J644:@?6D C62=:K252D 6? .@C=5 6? 6= :?7@C>6 " +#" 
!#    D6 92? >@DEC25@ 56DAFUD 56 EC6D 5U4252D 32DE2?E6
46C42?2D 2 =2 C62=:525 2= >6?@D 6? 4F2?E@ 2 =2 6G@=F4:X? 56 =2 A@3=24:X?
>F?5:2= J 2= 4C64:>:6?E@ 56 =2 AC@5F44:X? >F?5:2= 56 2=:>6?E@D  =2 =FK
56 6DE2D E6?56?4:2D =@D $625@HD 5676?5V2? DF >@56=@ 6? 6= Y=E:>@ 56 DFD
:?7@C>6D AF3=:425@D P.@C=5 ?@ 6C2 56= E@5@ 23DFC5@ 6? =2 24EF2=:525 DFD
DFAF6DE@D J ?F6DEC2D 4@?4=FD:@?6D D:8F6? 6DE2?5@ ;FDE:L425@DQ $625@HD 6E
2=   A 

"!'%.!  %!'$  !'%&$" & #"

#2 AC@AF6DE2 BF6 D6 56DAC6?56 56 E@52 6DE2 5:D4FD:X? A@C A2CE6 56 =@D


2FE@C6D 56= AC:>6C :?7@C>6 56= =F3 56 )@>2 J 2BF6==@D BF6 D6 A@D:4:@?2?
2 72G@C 56= >:D>@ 6D =2 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 46C@ P%@ 9246 72=E2 >TD BF6 4@86C
F? =TA:K J F? A2A6= A2C2 6DE:>2C 6= 9@C:K@?E6 23DFC5@ 924:2 6= BF6 2AF?E2CV2
6? 6= >F?5@ 7VD:4@ 4F2=BF:6C 4C64:>:6?E@ A6C>2?6?E6Q %2C65@   A 

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

101

DE2 AC@AF6DE2 A@C >FJ 6IEC2W2 BF6 A2C6K42 6? ?F6DEC@D 5V2D 92 4@?D
E:EF:5@ =2 D:EF24:X? ?@C>2= 56 =2 9F>2?:525 2?E6C:@C 2 =2 )6G@=F4:X? ?
5FDEC:2= 5FC2?E6 >:=6D 56 2W@D '@C 6= 4@?EC2C:@ 6= 4C64:>:6?E@ 6IA@?6?4:2=
32D25@ 6? 6?6C8V2 7XD:= 4@?DE:EFJ6 F?2 2?@>2=V2 9:DEXC:42 BF6 >TD AC@?
E@ BF6 E2C56 E:6?6 BF6 E6C>:?2C ?@D 8FDE6 @ ?@ 525@ BF6 D6 DFDE6?E2 6?
C64FCD@D 56 ?2EFC2=6K2 ?@ C6?@G23=6 4@?D:56C2?5@ =@D E:6>A@D 64@?X>:4@D
24EF2=6D 56 6IEC244:X? J 4@?DF>@
#2 7@C>2 6? =2 BF6 6?42C6>@D 6D2 EC2?D:4:X? 6D F? 2DF?E@ 56 6?@C>6
:>A@CE2?4:2 A2C2 6= 56D2CC@==@ 56 =2 6DA64:6 9F>2?2 6? 6= A=2?6E2 *: ?@D
6>A6W2>@D 6? :8?@C2C =2 2>6?2K2 4@>@ 6= 2G6DECFK BF6 9F?56 DF 4236K2
6? =2 E:6CC2 4F2?5@ 6I:DE6 F? A6=:8C@ 6= >65:@ 2>3:6?E6 ?@D @3=:82CT 2
56E6?6C?@D =@ BF6 E6?5CT 8C2G6D 4@?D64F6?4:2D AC:>6C2>6?E6 A2C2 =@D BF6
>6?@D C64FCD@D E:6?6? J 56DAFUD E2>3:U? A2C2 6= C6DE@ '@C 6= 4@?EC2C:@ D:
4@>@ 4:G:=:K24:X? 2DF>:>@D 6= 56D27V@ 56 >2?6C2 G@=F?E2C:2 J C6DA@?D23=6
E6?5C6>@D F? >2C86? 56 >2?:@3C2 A2C2 C6M6I:@?2C D@3C6 BFU 24E:G:5256D
6D ?646D2C:@ C62=:K2C 56 @EC2 7@C>2 J 4FT=6D AF656? 4@?E:?F2C 4@>@ 92DE2
29@C2
= U?72D:D 8C2G:E2 A@C E2?E@ 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ 56 =2D AC@5F44:@?6D >2E6
C:2=6D 2 =2 5:DEC:3F4:X? 56 =2D >:D>2D AF5:6?5@ 6D@ DV 2F>6?E2C =2D AC@
5F44:@?6D :?>2E6C:2=6D DE2 D@=F4:X? 256>TD 56 D6C 64@=X8:42>6?E6 DFD
E6?E23=6 =@ 6D D@4:2=>6?E6 AF6DE@ BF6 =@D A2EC@?6D 56 4C64:>:6?E@ 24EF2=6D
4@?46?EC2? =2 C:BF6K2 6? F?@D A@4@D >:6?EC2D BF6 =2 8C2? >2J@CV2 56 =@D
923:E2?E6D 56= A=2?6E2 A6C>2?646 2= >2C86? 56 =2 AC@DA6C:525

  


 

$!%
0 1 =5F?2E6   P= 724E@C 64@=X8:4@ #2D >:= 42C2D 56= A6?D2>:6?
E@ G6C56Q *2?E:28@ 56 9:=6 #&$
0 1 2C36C .   P:DE@C:2 56= A6?D2>:6?E@ 64@?X>:4@Q  2 65
$25C:5 =:2?K2 ,?:G6CD:525

102

PERSPECTIVAS. Revista de Anlisis de Economa, Comercio y Negocios Internacionales / Volumen 5 / No. 2 / jul-dic 2011

0 1 @FC?6 !  P,? 5:=6>2 AC@7F?5@Q %2E:@?2= 6@8C2A9:4 6?


6DA2W@=  
   
01 @H=6C ' !  )9JD $@CFD    P'2?@C2>2 86?6C2= 56 =2 4:6?4:2
>@56C?2Q 2C46=@?2 CVE:42
01 2CA:?E6C@ &  P?EC6 =2 64@?@>V2 J =2 ?2EFC2=6K2 #2 4@?
EC@G6CD:2 D@3C6 =2 G2=@C24:X? >@?6E2C:2 56= >65:@ 2>3:6?E6 J =2 DFD
E6?E23:=:525 56= D:DE6>2 64@?X>:4@Q $25C:5 #@D #:3C@D 56 =2 2E2C2
E2
01 @DE2?K2 )  P.92E :D 64@=@8:42= 64@?@>:4DQ 4@=@8:42= 4@
?@>:4D    
01 FCT?    P)64FCD@D ?2EFC2=6D >65:@ 2>3:6?E6 J 56D2C
C@==@ D@DE6?:3=6Q ? !@DU $2?F6= 2C4V2 56 =2 CFK J 6>>2
FCT? )@>6C@ @@C5D *:DE6>2 64@?X>:4@ >F?5:2= AA   
$25C:5 +9@>D@?
01 !@?2D   P$TD 46C42 56= A6CG6CD@ L? J @EC@D 5:T=@8@D J 6?
D2J@DQ $25C:5 #@D #:3C@D 56 =2 2E2C2E2
01 "F?K:8 )  P= 2F86 56= A6ECX=6@ 42?25:6?D6 +@42?5@ 7@?5@Q
%2E:@?2= 6@8C2A9:4 6? 6DA2W@= 
    
0
1 $625@HD  $625@HD  )2?56CD !  69C6?D .   P#@D
=V>:E6D 56= 4C64:>:6?E@ ?7@C>6 2= =F3 56 )@>2 D@3C6 6= 'C65:42>6?
E@ 56 =2 F>2?:525Q $UI:4@ @?5@ 56 F=EFC2 4@?X>:42
0 1 $625@HD  $625@HD   )2?56CD !  P$TD 2==T 56 =@D
=V>:E6D 56= 4C64:>:6?E@Q $25C:5 = '2VD 8F:=2C
0 1 $625@HD  )2?56CD !  $625@HD    P#@D =V>:E6D 56= 4C64:
>:6?E@  2W@D 56DAFUDQ 2C46=@?2 VC4F=@ 56 #64E@C6D  2=2I:2
FE6?36C8
0 1 %2C65@ ! $   P)2V46D 64@?X>:42D 56= 56E6C:@C@ 64@=X8:4@ J
D@4:2= $TD 2==T 56 =@D 5@8>2DQ $25C:5 *:8=@ // 

La tesis de los lmites fsicos del crecimiento: una revisin a los informes del Club de Roma

103

0 1 ):649>2?? ! 
 P6?E6 BF6 ?@ BF:6C6 G:2;2C 2 $2CE6Q ?D2J@D
D@3C6 64@=@8V2 UE:42 J 2FE@=:>:E24:X? $25C:5 #@D #:3C@D 56 =2 2E2C2
E2
0 1 +2>2>6D ) 
 P#2 A@=U>:42 D@3C6 =@D =V>:E6D 2= 4C64:>:6?E@Q
$25C:5 =:2?K2
0 1 ,CBF:5: -   P==6?56 6= 2W@ Q ? @?6==2 $625@HD 6?
?:D $625@HD !@C86? )2?56CD J .:==:2> 69C6?D   P#@D =V>:E6D
56= 4C64:>:6?E@ ?7@C>6 2= =F3 56 )@>2 D@3C6 6= 'C65:42>6?E@ 56 =2
F>2?:525Q AA    $UI:4@ @?5@ 56 F=EFC2 4@?X>:42
0 1 -2? :6C6? .  F>>6=:?4< $  .  P= G2=@C 56 =2 ?2E
FC2=6K2 'C@3=6>2D 4CF4:2=6D 56= >F?5@ 56 9@JQ 2C46=@?2 !FG6?EF5
0 1 .6:=    PC64:>:6?E@ 64@?X>:4@Q $UI:4@ '62CD@?

S-ar putea să vă placă și