Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Cursul 5
Pieele valutare internaionale
Conf. Cristian PUN
Email: cpaun@ase.ro
URL: http://www.finint.ase.ro
valutare
internaionale
sunt
piee
foarte
active
foarte
20,000
15,000
10,000
0
1
10 AM
Lunch Europe
In Tokyo In Tokyo opening
Asia
closing
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Americas London
open
closing
Afternoon
in America
6 pm Tokyo
In NY opens
700
United States
United Kingdom
Japan
Singapore
Germany
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Source: Bank for International Settlements, Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives
Market Activity in April 2001, October 2001, www.bis.org.
Cursul 6: Pieele valutare internaionale
$/euro
25%
$/other
28%
$/pound
10%
$/yen
20%
Spot
31%
Forex swap
53%
OTC
Options
5%
Forward
11%
Cursul 6: Pieele valutare internaionale
10
11
i c S(/) = 50
i.e. $1 = 2
i.e. 1 = 50
12
13
Regimurile valutare
14
Flotare administrat
CSV
Intervenia
Bncii Centrale
B
Intervenia Bncii
Centrale
15
Intervenia
Bncii Centrale
Intervenia Bncii
Centrale
16
Rata pivot
ajustabil
T1
T2
T3
Marja
ajustabil
Rata pivot fix
17
Ancor fix
Ancor
ajustabil
18
Redus
Mediu
Mare
19
cont curent
De cont de capital
20
21
Tranzaciile la termen
22
Long Forward
Profit
Spot la scaden
Loss
Curs forward
negociat iniial
23
Poziia n contr.
Expunerea
de credit
Debitor
Moneda local
se depreciaz
Creditor
Moneda local
se apreciaz
Strategia
forward
Long Forward
Short Forward
24
Spot
1,6325 - 35 ($)
2,30 - 2,30 3 / 4 ()
263,15 - 25
Forward 1 m
0.15 premium
0.10 discount
Forward 2 m
1 1/8 - 1 cents
0.17 premium
0.8 discount
Forward 3 m
0.19 premium
0.6 discount
25
26
Abordarea tradiionalist
Ecuaia modelului:
GDP Growth
27
Rearanjnd obinem:
E = PiLC / PiFC
plei
s0
pUSD
plei x (1 plei )
s
pUSD x (1 pUSD )
_
x
1 x
s0
pUSD (1 pUSD ) plei
_
s s0 (pleu - pUSD )
s0
(1 pUSD )
Cursul 6: Pieele valutare internaionale
28
Abordarea monetarist
MxV=PxT
M=kxPxY
M
pentru
piata romaneasca
ROL
k xY
*
FX Rate = (M - M*) + (Y - Y*) + (k - k*)
M
*
P *
- USD
pentru piata americana
*
k xY
P
29
Real Market
Money Market
30
31