Year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Quarter
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Black Plastic Demand

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2556
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

It

3417
3733
3834.5
4096.25
4043
4194.5
4350.25
4124.5
4423.75
4766.5
5170.5
5610.25
6555.75
6595
6423.5
6555.5
6821

ft

3417
3733
3834.5
4096.25
4043
4194.5
4350.25
4124.5
4423.75
4766.5
5170.5
5610.25
6555.75
6595
6423.5
6555.5
6821
6821
6821
6821
6821
6821
6821
6821
6821
6821
6821
6821

Clear Plastic Demand Average

3200
7658
4420
2384
3654
8680
5695
1953
4742
13673
6640
2737
3486
13186
5448
3485
7728
16591
8236
3316

It

4415.5
4529
4784.5
5103.25
4995.5
5267.5
6515.75
6752
6948
6634
6512.25
6214.25
6401.25
7461.75
8313
9010
8967.75

ssdsdfsdsdfff

Ft

4415.5
4529
4784.5
5103.25
4995.5
5267.5
6515.75
6752
6948
6634
6512.25
6214.25
6401.25
7461.75
8313
9010
8967.75
8967.75
8967.75
8967.75
8967.75
8967.75
8967.75
8967.75

period

black plastic demand

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2556
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

lt
5052.1
4491.68
3940.744
3634.995
4361.796
4192.237
3782.39
3717.712
4385.369
4332.295
4019.036
3726.429
4631.743
4803.595
4719.276
4638.421
6117.736
6023.789
5558.231
5415.185
6951.548

ft
5052.1
4491.68
3940.744
3634.995
4361.796
4192.237
3782.39
3717.712
4385.369
4332.295
4019.036
3726.429
4631.743
4803.595
4719.276
4638.421
6117.736
6023.789
5558.231
5415.185
6951.548
6951.548
6951.548
6951.548
6951.548

0.2

period

clear plastic demand

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

3200
7658
4420
2384
3654
8680
5695
1953
4742
13673
6640
2737
3486
13186
5448
3485
7728
16591
8236
3316

lt
6345.6
5716.48
6104.784
5767.827
5091.062
4803.649
5578.92
5602.136
4872.308
4846.247
6611.597
6617.278
5841.222
5370.178
6933.342
6636.274
6006.019
6350.415
8398.532
8366.026
7356.021

ft
6345.6
5716.48
6104.784
5767.827
5091.062
4803.649
5578.92
5602.136
4872.308
4846.247
6611.597
6617.278
5841.222
5370.178
6933.342
6636.274
6006.019
6350.415
8398.532
8366.026
7356.021
7356.021
7356.021
7356.021
7356.021

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.539633
R Square
0.291203
Adjusted R Square
0.251826
Standard Error
2717.832
Observations
20
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 54625100 54625100 7.395151 0.01406
18 1.33E+08 7386610
19 1.88E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 2042.737 1262.518 1.617986 0.123055 -609.716 4695.19 -609.716 4695.19
X Variable 1 286.606 105.393 2.719403 0.01406 65.18354 508.0285 65.18354 508.0285

Upper 95.0%

L0 = 2043
T0 =287

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.305404
R Square
0.093272
Adjusted R Square
0.042898
Standard Error
3992.221
Observations
20
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 29510327 29510327 1.851591 0.190394
18 2.87E+08 15937825
19 3.16E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
4133.7 1854.512 2.228996 0.038795 237.5148 8029.885 237.5148 8029.885
X Variable 1 210.6571 154.8117 1.360732 0.190394
-114.59 535.9044
-114.59 535.9044

Upper 95.0%

alpha
beta
gemma

Period

Dt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2556
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

0.2
0.2
0.2

period

clear plastic demand

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

3200
7658
4420
2384
3654
8680
5695
1953
4742
13673
6640
2737
3486
13186
5448
3485
7728
16591
8236
3316

alpha
beta

Period

Dt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Lt
2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2556
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

2043
2371.4
2539.8
2784.144
3945.907
4303.712
4298.48
4471.065
5294.954
5470.263
5292.712
5000.501
5796.663
6011.293
5948.97
5820.54
7196.438
7268.334
6873.514
6644.164
8030.263

0.2
0.2

Tt
287
295.28
269.904
264.792
444.1862
426.91
340.4815
306.9023
410.2997
363.3015
255.131
145.6625
275.7625
263.536
198.3642
133.0054
381.5838
319.6463
176.7529
95.5324
353.6458

Ft
2330
2666.68
2809.704
3048.936
4390.093
4730.622
4638.961
4777.967
5705.254
5833.565
5547.843
5146.163
6072.425
6274.829
6147.334
5953.546
7578.022
7587.98
7050.266
6739.696
8383.909
0
0
0

period

clear plastic demand lt

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

3200
7658
4420
2384
3654
8680
5695
1953
4742
13673
6640
2737
3486
13186
5448
3485
7728
16591
8236
3316

4134
4158.2
6685.4
9862.832
14581.12
22255.73
34795.99
52590.45
78831.98
119393.7
182198.4
274564.3
413533.4
623811.1
942984.8
1421876
2144288
3235081
4881741
7362691
11104223

tt
211
1827.24
3630.512
6214.056
9860.036
15255.4
23614.66
36369.02
55379.7
83948.89
127477.5
193334.6
292287.2
441298.7
666398.1
1006091
1518105
2290358
3455651
5213407
7864108

ft
4345
5985.44
10315.91
16076.89
24441.16
37511.13
58410.65
88959.47
134211.7
203342.6
309676
467898.9
705820.6
1065110
1609383
2427966
3662393
5525439
8337392
12576098