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Cndseaplic?
a) Pentrufiecareprobsuntdoardourezultateposibile(ex.Succesi
eec)
b) Probabilitileapariieiacestorrezultatermnaceleaipedurata
probelor.
c) Probelesuntindependente.
Exemplupractic:
Seconsiderurmtoruljoc:
1. Avem3urneinexactunadineleseaflopiatr.
2. Juctorulnutienceurmestepiatra.
3. Elpoatesncerceosingurdatsghiceascdacpiatraenurmaaleasde
el.
Cerin:
Careesteprobabilitateacadup5probealeacestuijoc,juctorulsghiceasc
urnadeexact3ori?
Rezolvare:
EvenimentulX=Juctorulghicesteurnancareseaflpiatra.
P(X)= 31 (Numruldeurnecupiatr/Numrultotaldeurne)
Avemurmtoarearelaie
ProbabilitateadeaaveaKsuccesefcndNprobe,cuprobabilitateade
succesp,ideeecq,esteCNKpKqNK.
40
Astfelavem:C53p3q2=10*( 31 )3*( 32 )2= 243
=0.164609053...
Media:
m= (p + q) = ( nk )pk qnk
k=0
( 13 ) * ( 23 ) =0.131687
1
4
p(1)= ( 51 )p1 q4 =5* ( 13 ) * ( 23 ) )=0.329218
2
3
p(2)= ( 52 )p2 q3 =10*
( 13 ) * ( 23 ) =0.329218
3
2
p(3)= ( 53 )p3 q2 =10* ( 13 ) * ( 23 ) =0.164609
4
1
p(4)= ( 54 )p4 q1 =5*
( 13 ) * ( 23 ) =0.041152
5
0
p(5)= ( 55 )p5 q0 =1*
( 13 ) * ( 23 ) =0.004115
m= i * p(i) =0+0.329218+0.658436+0.493827+0.164609
i=0
+0.020576=1.666666
Momentuldeordinul2:
2 = xi2 px (xi )
i
=0 *p(0)+12*p(1)+22*p(2)+32*p(3)+42*p(4)+52*p(5)=
=0+0.329218+1.316872+1.481481+0.658432+0.103875
=3.889878
Dispersia: 2 = 2 m2 =3.889878(
1.666666)2=1.112102...
nlimbajulR:
//Probabilitateacadin5ncercricuprobabilitateadesucces1/3sobinem
exact3succese.
>dbinom(3,5,1/3)
[1]0.1646091
//Testmpentru20000depersoanecareefectueazjoculdatifacemmedia
valorilorobinute(numruldesucceselafiecarepersoan,observmce
foarteapropiatdemediacalculatteoretic(1.666666))
>x=rbinom(20000,5,1/3)
>mean(x)
[1]1.66605
//Afimprobabilitiledeobinereavalorilorxibazndunepe20000de
probencarejuctorulncearcde5orisghiceascurnacupiatr.
>n=20000
>x=rbinom(n,5,1/3)
>t=table(x)/n
>pie(t,main="Probabilitatileobtineriiuneianumitevalori")
Repartiiahipergeometric
Cndseaplic?
a) Cndputemabordaproblemacapeceaaextrageriibilelordinurnfr
revenire.
Exemplupractic:
Ofirmdevnzriitransportdematerialedeconstrucieare10camione
pentrutransportaredenisip.3dinelesuntdeproduciefrancezi7deproducie
german.Pentruocomanddenisipenevoiede4camioane.
Cerin:
Careesteprobabilitateacaalegnd4camioanedincele10,exact2dinelesfie
deproduciegerman?
Rezolvare:
N=10(Numrultotaldecamioane)
N1=3(Camioanefranuzeti)
N2=7(Camioanenemeti)
M=4(NumruldecamioanealesedinceleN)
K=2(CtecamioanedineleMextrasesfienemeti)
Repartiiahipergeometricecaracterizatdeurmtoarearelaie
P(K)=probabilitateadeaaveaKcamioanenemetidintreceleMextrase
(dinceleNtotale)
MK
C KN1C N2
P(K)= C M
N
nlocuinddateledinproblem,obinem:
P(2)=
2 2
C 3
C7
4
C 10
3
= 10
=0.3
Media:
4*3
M= mn1
n = 10 =1.2
Dispersia:
4*3*7*6
2 = mn1(nn1)(nm)
= 100
n2(n1)
*9
=0.56
nlimbajulR:
//Aproximmmediapentru100deprobe:
>mean(rhyper(100,3,7,4))
[1]1.22
//Aproximmdispersiapentru1000deprobe:
>var(rhyper(1000,3,7,4))
[1]0.5681522
Reprezentareafuncieimasdeprobabilitate:
RepartiiaPoisson
Cndseaplic?
a) Cndnepunemproblemacalculriiprobabilitiiunuieveniment
ntrunintervaldetimpdat.
b) Numruldesuccesendouintervaledisjunctedetimpsunt
independente.
c) Probabilitateadesucccespeunintervalmicdetimpesteproporional
culungimealui.
Exemplupractic:
Spreexaminarelagreelidetiparsauluat25pagini.Pentruanumitepagini
sadeterminatoanumitfrecvenagreelilor.Acesteasuntreprezentatentabelul
demaijos.
nr.degreeli
frecvena
Cerin:
Careeprobabilitateadeaalegealeatoropagincarearecelpuin3greeli?
Rezolvare:
Numrultotaldegreelisecalculeazastfel:
(0x2)+(1x6)+(2x4)+(3x5)+(4x6)+(5x2)=0+6+8+15+24+10=63
63
= 25
=2.52
Probabilitateadincerin:
P(X>=3)=P(3)+P(4)+P(5),
undePk(0,t)=
Lk eL
k!
2.43 e2.4
P(X>=3)=P(3)+P(4)+P(5)=
3!
2.44 e2.4
4!
=0,209014164+0,125408499+0,060196079
=0,394618742
2.45 e2.4
5!
Media:M=L=2.52
Dispersia: 2 = L = 2.52
nlimbajulR:
//Extragem1000depaginialeatoare,dinrepartiapoissoncuL=2.52
>mean(rpois(1000,2.52))
[1]2.516
//Verificamdispersia
>var(rpois(1000,2.52))
[1]2.574365
Repartiiauniform
Cndseaplic?
a) VariabilaaleatoareX,areaceeaiprobabilitatedealuaovaloaredin
intervalul[a,b]iestecontinupeel.
b) Graficulfuncieimasdeprobabilitateareformdedreptunghicu
laturilepex=a,ix=b,icunlimea1/(ba)iarie1.
Exemplupractic:
Fieunterendelungimea10metri.Delaonlimemare,searuncominge
careareaceeaiprobabilitatedeacdealaoanumitdistanxfademargina
stngaterenului.
Cerin:
Careeprobabilitateacderiimingiilaodistannintervalul[3,5.5]metrifa
demarginastngaterenului.
Rezolvare:
Graficuldistribuieiuniformeesteundreptunghiculimeabai
nlimeac=1/(ba)
Pentruproblemanoastravem:
c=1/(100)=1/2.5=0.1
Iarprobabilitateacderiiladistananintervalul[x,y]esteegalcuaria
dreptunghiuluintrecoordonatelexiy.
Avemx=3,y=5.5
P(X)=c*(yx)=0.1*2.5=0.25
Media:M=(a+b)/2=5
nlimbajulR:
//Facem1000dearuncriamingii
>mean(runif(1000,0,10))
[1]5.060068
//Verificamdispersia
>var(runif(1000,2.52))
[1]8.454198
>hist(runif(1000,2.52))
Repartiianormal(gaussian)
Cndseaplic?
a) CndvariabilaaleatoareXaredensitateadeforma
fx=
(xm)2
1
exp[ 22 ]
2
b) Graficuldistribuieestesimetric,nformdeclopot.
c) Distribuiaestedefapt,ofamiliederepartiiinfunciedeparametrii
mediamideviaiastandard .
d) Aproximativdedinprobabilitateseaflnintrevalul[m ,m+ ]
adicP(mXm+)=0.6826.
e) Aproximativ95%dinrepartiieeladistande2 demedie,adic
P(m2Xm+2)=0.9544
Exemplupractic:
Laprobasaltnlungimedepeloc,rezultaleelevilorauodistribuienormal
cumedia2metriideviaiastandard0.7metri.
Cerin:
Careesteprobabilitateacaunelevselectataleatorssarmaimultde2.3metri?
Rezolvare:
m=2i =0.7
TransformmvariabilanormalX,nunastandartizat.Cualtecuvinte,variabila
normalX,cumediamideviaiastandard ,ostandartizmtransformndo
ntrovariabilZ,cumediam=0i =1.Astfel,vomputeafolositabelul
maseideprobabilitatepentrurepartiianormalstadard.
Z= Xm
Z=(2.32)/0.7=0,428571429 0.42
P(X>2.3)=P(Z>0,42)=1P(Z<=0.42)=10.66275724
=0,33724276
nlimbajulR:
//Verificmprobabilitateaobinutprincalcul
>1pnorm(2.3,2,0.7)
[1]0.3341176
//Verificmpentruvariabilastandartizat,observmceroaredecalculemaimic
>1pnorm(0.42,0,1)
[1]0.3372427
//histogramarepartiieinormale
>a=rnorm(1000,2,0.7)
>hist(a)