Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
PESO(TMS)
Cabeza
Conc. De Pb
Conc. De Zn
Relave
Cab. Calculada
60.000
6.618
14.035
39.347
60.000
LEYES
onz/TM Ag
%Pb
%Zn
8.24
76.49
6.00
0.80
10.37
7.14
61.20
1.78
0.45
7.46
13.00
6.50
53.20
0.75
13.65
CONTENIDO
%As
%Sb
Hg ppm
1.20
0.60
1.01
0.04
30.00
40.00
% SiO2
Ag(onz)
Pb(TM)
2.02
494.40
506.22
84.21
31.48
621.91
4.284
4.050
0.250
0.177
4.477
NOTA: En el cuadro del balance metalurgico los casilleros rojos son donde se deben de
ingresar los datos el resto esta programado
Contenido ( Pb ) F
Contenido ( Zn) F
donde :
F : Alimento general
CCION EFECTIVA
O S.A.C.
CIRCUITO DE CHANCADO
CONTENIDO
RECUPERACION
Zn(TM)
% Ag
% Pb
% Zn
7.800
0.430
7.467
0.295
8.192
81.40
13.54
5.06
100.00
90.47
5.58
3.95
100.00
5.25
91.15
3.60
100.00
RATIOS
9.07
4.28
CIRCUITO DE CHANCADO
5
3
4
CIRCUITO DE PLOMO
17
Scv I DR-100
Ro II DR-100
CIRCUITO DE COBRE
2
6
23
22
CIRCUITO DE ZINC
limp II Sub- A N 24
30
3
4
FILTRO
DE zINC
15 x 8
35
limp I Sub- A N 24
2
9
3
6
MA LA MANO S.A
1
3
CIRCUITO DE
7 MOLIENDA
DR-100
Sub A N - 21
1
1
8
6
1
0
14
WS-180ft3
16
15
1
8
19
limp I Sub- A N 24
limp II Sub- A N 24
Ro I WS-180ft3
LEYENDA
21
Ro I Sub A N - 21
24
25
Limp I Sub A N - 21
20
Limp II Sub A N - 21
12345678910-
Sub- A N 24
Ro I DR-100
Scv I DR-100
2
8
2
7
39
FILTO
DE
PLOM
O
FILTO
DE
COBRE
33
15 x 8
37
RELAVE
1112131415- 31
1617181920212223- 32
2425262728293031323334353
368
373839-
Molino de Bolas 8 x 8
Bomba Horizontal 3 x 3
Hidrociclon D-10
Celda N1 WS-180ft3
Celda N2 WS-180ft3
Rorgher II DR -100
Scavenger I DR-100
cleaner I Sub A N 24
cleaner II Sub A N 24
Acondicionador 6' x 6'
Rorgher I Sub A N18
Scavenger I Sub A N18
Scavenger II Sub A N 18
cleaner I Sub A N 18
cleaner II Sub A N 18
Acondicionador 8' X 8'
Rorgher I DR -100
Scavenger I DR-100
Cleaner I Sub A N24
Cleaner II Sub A N24
Cono de Decantacion de Cu 2
Bomba Horizontal 3 X3 Cu
Filtro de Cu 6 x2
Espesador de Zn 15 X 8
Bomba Horizontal 3 X3 Zn
Filtro de Zn 6 x3
Espesador de Pb 15 X 8
Bomba Horizontal 3 X3 Pb
Filtro de Pb 6 x3
1
3
D-10
1
2
LEYENDA
Molino de Bolas 8 x 8
Bomba Horizontal 3 x 3
Hidrociclon D-10
Celda N1 WS-180ft3
Celda N2 WS-180ft3
Rorgher II DR -100
Scavenger I DR-100
cleaner I Sub A N 24
cleaner II Sub A N 24
Acondicionador 6' x 6'
Rorgher I Sub A N18
Scavenger I Sub A N18
Scavenger II Sub A N 18
cleaner I Sub A N 18
cleaner II Sub A N 18
Acondicionador 8' X 8'
Rorgher I DR -100
Scavenger I DR-100
Cleaner I Sub A N24
Cleaner II Sub A N24
Cono de Decantacion de Cu 2m Diam x 2m
Bomba Horizontal 3 X3 Cu
Filtro de Cu 6 x2
Espesador de Zn 15 X 8
Bomba Horizontal 3 X3 Zn
Filtro de Zn 6 x3
Espesador de Pb 15 X 8
Bomba Horizontal 3 X3 Pb
Filtro de Pb 6 x3
1500
TMS/mes
trabajando
Para calcular la vida til del proyecto consideramos la reserva de mineral del
informe de la mina del ao 2013 la cual es de:
143793 TM
Se calcula utilizando la siguiente frmula:
VU=143793TM/(18000TM/ao)
VIDA UTIL =
7.99
VIDA UTIL
aos
Redondeando:
aos
12
meses al ao
AO
DEMANDA
(miles de ton)
aos
8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
6338.2
6433.5
6641
6825
7260
7609
7550.83
7439.55
AO BASE
2013
7643.940
PRECIO
(dlares/ton)
20.590
21.600
23.360
40.210
44.290
58.500
117.030
94.830
77.910
D
%
D
Variacin de la
demandaD
Variacin del
precio P
95.3
207.5
184
435
349
-58.17
-111.28
1.0
1.8
16.9
4.1
14.2
58.5
-22.2
1.5036
3.2253
2.7707
6.3736
4.8072
-0.7645
-1.4737
204.39
-16.9
2.7473
19.1895
SUMATORIA
PORCENTAJE DE
VARIACION DE
DEMANDA
b
=
-2.119
c
=
28.915
CONSTANTES HALLADAS
P
D
c b(
)..................................................(1)
P
D
P
D
c b(
)
P
D
P
D
P cN b D .......................................(2)
P D
D
D
( P * D ) c D b ( D )2 ...............(3)
2 regresion de la var.% de la demanda en el tiempo
D
d e(t )..................................................(4)
D
D
D dN e t.......................................(5)
D
( D )t d t e (t )2 ............................(6)
CONSTANTES CALCULADAS
e
=
-0.3210
d
=
3.8430
-2.1193
D
%
D
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.0000
1.5036
3.2253
2.7707
6.3736
4.8072
-0.7645
-1.4737
28.9153 Ao Base
2013
2.7473
SUMATORIA
36
19.1895
RESULTADOS
DEMANDA Y PRECIO PROYECTADO
PROYECCION DE LA
DEMANDA Y EL PRECIO
Ao base
AO
DEMANDA
(miles de ton)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
7643.94
7570.99
7498.74
7451.24
7474.52
7473.88
7449.26
7400.80
7328.91
7423.63
PRECIO
204.39
-72.95
-72.25
-47.50
23.28
-0.64
-24.63
-48.45
-71.89
94.72
D
%
D
-16.92
20.95
26.59
34.59
-45.22
-33.22
-24.16
-17.40
-12.40
8.75
2.75
0.954
0.954
0.6334
0.3124
-0.0085
-0.3295
-0.6505
-0.9714
-1.2924
sumatoria
2.350
OFERTA (miles
de ton)
aos
2011
2012
6736.900
6701.700
6670.000
6748.000
6955.000
7556.000
7455.830
7354.550
AO BASE
2013
8012.212
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
PRECIO
(dlares/ton)
20.590
21.600
23.360
40.210
44.290
58.500
117.030
94.830
77.910
Variacin de la
oferta
Variacin del
precio P
-35.2
1.0
-0.5225
-31.7
1.8
-0.4730
78
16.9
1.1694
207
4.1
3.0676
601
14.2
8.6413
-100.17
58.5
-1.3257
-101.28
-22.2
-1.3584
657.662
-16.9
8.9422
SUMATORIA
P
O
c b(
)......... .........................................(1)
P
O
P
O
c b(
)
P
O
P
O
P cN b O .......................................(2)
P O
O
O
( P * O ) c O b ( O )2 ...............(3)
PORCENTAJE DE
VARIACION DE LA
OFERTA
18.1409
b
=
-2.4338
c
=
29.3509
CONSTANTES HALLADAS
P
O
c b(
)......... .........................................(1)
P
O
P
O
c b(
)
P
O
P
O
P cN b O .......................................(2)
P O
O
O
( P * O ) c O b ( O )2 ...............(3)
2 regresion de la var.% de la oferta en el tiempo
O
d e(t )..................................................(4)
O
O
O dN e t.......................................(5)
O
( O )t d t e (t )2 ............................(6)
CONSTANTES CALCULADAS
e
=
0.7133
d
=
-0.9421
b
c
=
=
-2.4338
29.3509 Ao Base
RESULTADOS
OFERTA Y PRECIO PROYECTADO
PROYECCION DE LA OFERTA
Y EL PRECIO
Ao base
AO
OFERTA (miles
de ton)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
8012.212
8451.07
8974.24
9593.81
8863.03
8124.71
7389.94
6668.90
5970.66
6638.38
suma
78686.95
O
(%)
O
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.0000
-0.5225
-0.4730
1.1694
3.0676
8.6413
-1.3257
-1.3584
8.9422
SUMATORIA
36
18.1409
PRECIO
657.66
438.85
523.17
619.57
-730.77
-738.33
-734.77
-721.03
-698.25
667.73
O
(%)
O
-16.92
12.48
12.91
12.96
-12.57
-9.41
-6.92
-4.90
-3.19
1.69
8.94
5.477
6.191
6.904
7.617
8.330
9.044
9.757
10.470
11.183
sumatoria
83.916
AO
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
DEMANDA
(miles de ton)
PRECIO
7643.94
7570.99004529
7498.736288599
7451.240217186
7474.51976749
7473.881643495
7449.255216645
7400.800618087
7328.907403789
7423.625273949
AO
(dlares/ton)
77.9
98.9
125.4
160.0
114.8
81.6
57.4
40.0
27.6
36.4
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
OFERTA
(miles de
ton)
8012.212
8451.07
8974.24
9593.81
8863.03
8124.71
7389.94
6668.90
5970.66
6638.38
78686.95
PRECIO
(dlares/ton)
77.9
90.4
103.3
116.3
103.7
94.3
87.4
82.5
79.3
81.0
160.00
140.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
2012
2014
2016
GRAFICA DE PRECIOS FUTUROS
2018
Polynomial (GRA
DEMANDA
e la variacion % del precio con la variacion % de la demanda
P
%
P
(% VAR DEM)(%
VAR DEM)
4.9053
8.1481
72.1318
10.1467
32.0840
100.0513
-18.9695
7.375508854
26.2802633208
199.8533394665
64.6714638259
154.232963681
-76.488146628
27.9562035398
2.2608
10.4026
7.6766
40.6231
23.1088
0.5844
2.1719
-17.8425
-49.0193541405
7.5479
190.6553
354.8622
94.3761
PORCENTAJA DE
VARIACION DEL
PRECIO
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
AO
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
D
%
D
proyectado
0.954
0.633
0.312
-0.009
-0.329
-0.650
-0.971
-1.292
21.9787
64
72.8721
204.0
2022
P
%
P
ANALISIS DE
SIGNOS DE LA
VARIACION
PORCENTUAL DEL
PRECIO
MODIFICADO
-17.84
26.8928
26.8928
27.5730
28.2532
28.9334
29.6136
30.2938
30.9740
31.6542
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
1.000000
-17.84
26.8928
26.8928
27.5730
-28.2532
-28.9334
-29.6136
-30.2938
-30.9740
31.6542
243.2386
-1.0000
-52.8977
O CON LA OFERTA
(% VAR OFERT *
%VAR PREC)
(% VAR OFERT)(%
VAR OFERT)
4.9053
-2.5629940015
0.2730
8.1481
-3.8541906725
0.2237
72.1318
84.3520876548
1.3675
10.1467
31.1258601294
9.4100
32.0840
277.2462849019
74.6715
100.0513
-132.638127621
1.7575
-18.9695
25.7681633531
1.8453
-17.8425
-159.551632488
79.9638
190.6553
119.8855
169.5123
PORCENTAJA DE
VARIACION DEL
PRECIO
-1.613
-2.965
17
0.0000
-0.5225
-0.9460
3.5082
12.2703
43.2063
-7.9542
-9.5088
71.5380
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
111.5913
204.0
AO
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
P
%
P
ANALISIS DE
SIGNOS DE LA
VARIACION
PORCENTUAL DEL
PRECIO
MODIFICADO
-17.84
16.0200
14.2840
12.5480
10.8120
9.0760
7.3400
5.6041
3.8681
2.1321
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
1.000000
-17.84
16.0200
14.2840
12.5480
-10.8120
-9.0760
-7.3400
-5.6041
-3.8681
2.1321
63.8418
-1.0000
-9.5586
proyectado
5.477
6.191
6.904
7.617
8.330
9.044
9.757
10.470
11.183
74.974
O
(%)
O
PRECIO DE Pb
PROYECTADO
($/TM)
PRECIO DE Pb
PROYECTADO
($/TM)
77.910
94.394
113.384
135.401
108.786
88.206
72.339
60.148
50.819
57.430
85.88
104.05
124.98
149.25
119.91
97.23
79.74
66.30
56.02
63.31
ROS
2018
2020
2022
2024
AO
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
aos
2011
2012
2013
AO BASE
DEMANDA
(miles de ton)
9785.00
9875.00
9799.00
9841.00
10656.00
10612.00
11012.00
11344.00
11590.00
PRECIO
(dlares/ton)
40.17
35.32
37.54
47.53
62.68
148.56
147.07
85.04
75.05
Variacin de la
demandaD
Variacin del
precio P
D
%
D
PORCENTAJE DE
VARIACION DE
DEMANDA
90
-4.9
0.9198
-76
2.2
-0.7696
42
10.0
0.4286
815
15.2
8.2817
-44
85.9
-0.4129
400
-1.5
3.7693
332
-62.0
-10.0
3.0149
2.1685
246
17.4003
SUMATORIA
b
=
-4.076
c
=
25.713
CONSTANTES HALLADAS
P
D
c b(
)......... .........................................(1)
P
D
P
D
c b(
)
P
D
P
D
P cN b D .......................................(2)
P D
D
D
( P * D ) c D b ( D )2 ...............(3)
2 regresion de la var.% de la demanda en el tiempo
D
d e(t )..................................................(4)
D
D
D dN e t.......................................(5)
D
( D )t d t e (t )2 ............................(6)
CONSTANTES CALCULADAS
e
=
0.3451
d
=
0.6219
D
%
D
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.0000
0.9198
-0.7696
0.4286
8.2817
-0.4129
3.7693
b
c
=
=
-4.0757
25.7127 Ao Base
RESULTADOS
DEMANDA Y PRECIO PROYECTADO
PROYECCION DE LA
DEMANDA Y EL PRECIO
Ao base
AO
DEMANDA
(miles de ton)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
11590
11157.91
10741.92
10304.37
10759.66
11272.21
11848.07
12494.25
13218.78
12406.61
2012
2013
7
8
3.0149
2.1685
SUMATORIA
36
17.4003
PRECIO
246.00
-432.09
-415.98
-437.55
455.29
512.54
575.86
646.17
724.54
-812.18
D
%
D
-9.99
7.89
8.72
8.35
-7.71
-5.81
-4.23
-2.87
-1.65
0.52
2.17
3.728
3.728
4.0733
4.4184
4.7636
5.1087
5.4538
5.7990
6.1441
sumatoria
45.386
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
aos
2011
2012
2013
AO BASE
OFERTA (miles
de ton)
9185.70
9136.60
9377.00
9848.00
10656.00
10636.00
10642.67
10512.45
11010.00
PRECIO
(dlares/ton)
40.17
35.32
37.54
47.53
62.68
148.56
147.07
85.04
75.05
Variacin del
precio P
O
O
PORCENTAJE DE
VARIACION DE LA
OFERTA
-49.1
-4.9
-0.5345
240.4
2.2
2.6312
471
10.0
5.0229
808
15.2
8.2047
-20
85.9
-0.1877
6.67
-1.5
0.0627
-130.22
497.55
-62.0
-10.0
-1.2236
4.7330
SUMATORIA
P
O
c b(
)..................................................(1)
P
O
P
O
c b(
)
P
O
P
O
cN b .......................................(2)
18.7087
b
=
0.9157
c
=
14.7064
CONSTANTES HALLADAS
P
O
c b(
)..................................................(1)
P
O
P
O
c b(
)
P
O
P
O
P cN b O .......................................(2)
P O
O
O
( P * O ) c O b ( O ) 2 ...............(3)
2 regresion de la var.% de la oferta en el tiempo
O
d e(t )......... .........................................( 4)
O
O
O dN e t.......................................(5)
O
( O )t d t e (t ) 2 ............................(6)
CONSTANTES CALCULADAS
e
=
-0.0676
d
=
2.6426
b
c
=
=
0.9157
14.7064 Ao Base
RESULTADOS
OFERTA Y PRECIO PROYECTADO
PROYECCION DE LA OFERTA
Y EL PRECIO
Ao base
AO
OFERTA (miles
de ton)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
11010
11234.01
11454.99
11672.58
11458.74
11256.56
11065.56
10885.27
10715.27
10875.37
suma
111628.34
O
(%)
O
2005
0.0000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-0.5345
2.6312
5.0229
8.2047
-0.1877
0.0627
-1.2236
4.7330
SUMATORIA
36
18.7087
PRECIO
497.55
224.01
220.98
217.59
-213.84
-202.18
-191.01
-180.29
-170.00
160.11
O
(%)
O
-9.99
12.44
14.44
16.76
-19.45
-16.20
-13.50
-11.26
-9.40
7.86
4.73
2.035
1.967
1.900
1.832
1.764
1.697
1.629
1.562
1.494
sumatoria
20.613
AO
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
DEMANDA
(miles de ton)
11590
11157.90717777
10741.92343293
10304.37387015
10759.6649558
11272.20829595
11848.07148962
12494.24584835
13218.78372819
12406.60721666
PRECIO
OFERTA
(miles de
ton)
11010
11234.01
11454.99
11672.58
11458.74
11256.56
11065.56
10885.27
10715.27
10875.37
111628.34
AO
(dlares/ton)
75.1
82.9
91.7
100.0
92.3
86.5
82.3
79.4
77.8
78.3
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
PRECIO
(dlares/ton)
75.1
87.5
101.9
118.7
99.2
83.0
69.5
58.3
48.9
56.7
120.00
f(x) = - 0.0001256264x^6 + 1.4837096024x^5 - 7296.8023853911x^4 + 19126162.5661301x^3 - 28180140523.1
R = 0
100.00
PRECIO DEL Z
80.00
Polynomial (P
PRONOSTICA
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
EMANDA
e la variacion % del precio con la variacion % de la demanda
P
%
P
(% VAR DEM)(%
VAR DEM)
-12.0737
-11.10507731
0.8460
6.2854
-4.8373639921
0.5923
26.6116
11.4061414397
0.1837
31.8746
263.9752412614
68.5862
137.0134
-56.5746026818
0.1705
PORCENTAJA DE
VARIACION DEL
PRECIO
-1.0030
-3.7804815917
14.2078
-42.1772
-11.7474
-127.159721985
-25.4748201129
9.0896
4.7026
134.7838
46.4493
98.3786
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
AO
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
D
%
D
proyectado
3.728
4.073
4.418
4.764
5.109
5.454
5.799
21.1042
17.3484
49
64
92.7971
204.0
2021
2022
P
%
P
ANALISIS DE
SIGNOS DE LA
VARIACION
PORCENTUAL DEL
PRECIO
MODIFICADO
-11.75
10.5180
10.5180
9.1113
7.7046
6.2980
4.8913
3.4846
2.0780
0.6713
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
1.000000
-11.75
10.5180
10.5180
9.1113
-7.7046
-6.2980
-4.8913
-3.4846
-2.0780
0.6713
43.5277
-1.0000
-5.3854
CON LA OFERTA
(% VAR OFERT *
%VAR PREC)
(% VAR OFERT)(%
VAR OFERT)
-12.0737
6.4537054705
0.2857
6.2854
16.5379673787
6.9231
26.6116
133.6682342432
25.2298
31.8746
261.5219461205
67.3173
137.0134
-25.7157284917
0.0352
-1.0030
-0.0628972826
0.0039
-42.1772
-11.7474
51.6065449001
-55.6000297672
1.4971
22.4009
134.7838
388.4097
123.6931
PORCENTAJA DE
VARIACION DEL
PRECIO
6.144
6.489
45.978
16
17
0.0000
O
(%)
O
AO
2014
proyectado
2.035
-0.5345
5.2624
15.0688
32.8188
-0.9384
0.3763
-8.5650
37.8637
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1.967
1.900
1.832
1.764
1.697
1.629
1.562
1.494
81.3520
204.0
15.880
P
%
P
ANALISIS DE
SIGNOS DE LA
VARIACION
PORCENTUAL DEL
PRECIO
MODIFICADO
-11.75
16.5696
16.5077
16.4459
16.3840
16.3222
16.2603
16.1984
16.1366
16.0747
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
1.000000
-11.75
16.5696
16.5077
16.4459
-16.3840
-16.3222
-16.2603
-16.1984
-16.1366
16.0747
135.1520
-1.0000
-27.4510
75.050
85.222
96.962
109.936
95.888
84.774
76.123
69.567
64.823
68.210
82.73
93.94
106.88
121.18
105.70
93.45
83.91
76.68
71.45
75.19
NOSTICADO
2024
AO
aos
8
AO BASE
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
DEMANDA
(miles de ton)
26850.00
25350.00
25625.00
26046.00
25774.00
26386.00
26142.00
26288.00
27289.00
PRECIO
($/Oztr)
Variacin de la
demandaD
Variacin del
precio P
4.39
4.63
4.91
6.69
7.34
11.57
13.42
15.01
14.68
-1500
275
421
-272
612
-244
146
1001
0.2
0.3
1.8
0.6
4.2
1.9
1.6
-0.3
PORCENTAJE DE
VARIACION DE
DEMANDA
-5.5866
1.0848
1.6429
-1.0443
2.3745
-0.9247
0.5585
3.8078
1.9129
SUMATORIA
D
%
D
b
=
1.965
c
=
17.124
CONSTANTES HALLADAS
P
D
c b(
)......... .........................................(1)
P
D
P
D
c b(
)
P
D
P
D
P cN b D .......................................(2)
P D
D
D
( P * D ) c D b ( D )2 ...............(3)
2 regresion de la var.% de la demanda en el tiempo
D
d e(t )......... .........................................(4)
D
D
D dN e t.......................................(5)
D
( D )t d t e (t )2 ............................(6)
CONSTANTES CALCULADAS
e
=
0.7005
d
=
-2.9133
1.9654
D
%
D
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0.0000
-5.5866
1.0848
1.6429
-1.0443
2.3745
-0.9247
0.5585
17.1240 Ao Base
RESULTADOS
DEMANDA Y PRECIO PROYECTADO
PROYECCION DE LA
DEMANDA Y EL PRECIO
Ao base
AO
DEMANDA
(miles de ton)
PRECIO
($/oztr)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
27289
26363.49
25469.36
24427.14
25597.83
27003.96
28676.50
30653.51
32981.57
30245.66
14.7
18.2
22.5
28.2
20.7
14.9
10.5
7.3
5.0
6.6
2013
3.8078
SUMATORIA
36
1.9129
D
%
D
-0.33
3.49
4.32
5.66
-7.47
-5.77
-4.37
-3.23
-2.34
1.66
3.81
3.392
3.392
4.0921
4.7926
5.4931
6.1937
6.8942
7.5947
8.2953
sumatoria
53.947
aos
8
AO BASE
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
PRECIO
OFERTA (miles
($/ozde ton)
tr)
3254.64
3185.42
3345.42
3456.23
3149.29
3249.26
3232.260
3221.490
3520.690
4.39
4.63
4.91
6.69
7.34
11.57
13.42
15.01
14.68
Variacin del
precio P
-69.22
160
110.81
-306.94
99.97
-17
-10.77
299.2
0.2
0.3
1.8
0.6
4.2
1.9
1.6
-0.3
SUMATORIA
P
O
c b(
)..................................................(1)
P
O
P
O
c b(
)
P
O
P
O
P cN b O .......................................(2)
P O
O
O
O
O
PORCENTAJE DE
VARIACION DE LA
OFERTA
-2.1268
5.0229
3.3123
-8.8808
3.1744
-0.5232
-0.3332
9.2876
8.9332
b
=
0.2209
c
=
17.3473
CONSTANTES HALLADAS
P
O
c b(
)..................................................(1)
P
O
P
O
c b(
)
P
O
P
O
P cN b O .......................................(2)
P O
O
O
( P * O ) c O b ( O ) 2 ...............(3)
2 regresion de la var.% de la oferta en el tiempo
O
d e(t )......... .........................................( 4)
O
O
O dN e t.......................................(5)
O
( O )t d t e (t )2 ............................(6)
CONSTANTES CALCULADAS
e
=
0.6389
d
=
-1.7585
b
c
=
=
0.2209
17.3473 Ao Base
RESULTADOS
OFERTA Y PRECIO PROYECTADO
PROYECCION DE LA OFERTA
Y EL PRECIO
Ao base
AO
OFERTA (miles
de onz.)
PRECIO
($/oztr)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
3520.69
3661.23
3830.77
4032.64
3794.37
3545.93
3291.11
3033.57
2776.80
3029.58
14.7
17.4
20.5
24.3
19.8
16.1
13.0
10.6
8.5
10.2
suma
34516.67
O
(%)
O
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.0000
-2.1268
5.0229
3.3123
-8.8808
3.1744
-0.5232
-0.3332
9.2876
SUMATORIA
36
8.9332
O
(%)
O
-0.33
2.68
3.19
3.80
-4.54
-3.72
-3.05
-2.49
-2.03
1.65
9.29
3.992
4.631
5.270
5.909
6.547
7.186
7.825
8.464
9.103
sumatoria
68.215
DEMANDA
(miles de onz)
AO
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
27289
26363.48588316
25469.36083812
24427.13807197
25597.83347707
27003.95787037
28676.49526053
30653.51355888
32981.57080141
30245.65545519
PRECIO
($/oztr)
14.7
18.2
22.5
28.2
20.7
14.9
10.5
7.3
5.0
6.6
OFERTA
(miles de
ton)
3520.69
3661.23
3830.77
4032.64
3794.37
3545.93
3291.11
3033.57
2776.80
3029.58
34516.67
AO
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
PRECIO
($/oz-tr)
14.7
17.4
20.5
24.3
19.8
16.1
13.0
10.6
8.5
10.2
30.00
f(x) = - 4.82854889409038E-005x^6 + 0.5695184271x^5 - 2796.9455020134x^4 + 7320463.58686999x^3 - 1
R = 0.8242275329
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
EMANDA
e la variacion % del precio con la variacion % de la demanda
P
%
P
(% VAR DEM)(%
VAR DEM)
5.4670
6.0475
36.2525
9.7160
57.6294
15.9896
11.8480
-2.1985
-30.5417340069
6.5604219118
59.5602801649
-10.1464730619
136.8402646437
-14.7861339998
6.6169622038
-8.3716252464
31.2100
1.1768
2.6992
1.0906
5.6382
0.8551
0.3119
14.4995
140.7515
145.7320
57.4813
PORCENTAJA DE
VARIACION DEL
PRECIO
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
AO
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
D
%
D
proyectado
3.392
4.092
4.793
5.493
6.194
6.894
7.595
8.295
30.4626
64
38.0306
204.0
2022
P
%
P
ANALISIS DE
SIGNOS DE LA
VARIACION
PORCENTUAL DEL
PRECIO
MODIFICADO
-2.20
23.7898
23.7898
25.1666
26.5435
27.9204
29.2972
30.6741
32.0509
33.4278
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
1.000000
-2.20
23.7898
23.7898
25.1666
-26.5435
-27.9204
-29.2972
-30.6741
-32.0509
33.4278
250.4615
-1.0000
-42.5106
CON LA OFERTA
(% VAR OFERT *
%VAR PREC)
(% VAR OFERT)(%
VAR OFERT)
5.4670
6.0475
36.2525
9.7160
57.6294
15.9896
11.8480
-2.1985
-11.6272057802
30.3759815595
120.0789318785
-86.2855540512
182.936912652
-8.3657104059
-3.9477898311
-20.4191683255
4.5233
25.2294
10.9713
78.8682
10.0766
0.2737
0.1110
86.2600
140.7515
202.7464
216.3135
PORCENTAJA DE
VARIACION DEL
PRECIO
8.996
55.743
17
0.0000
-2.1268
10.0458
9.9369
-35.5231
15.8718
-3.1392
-2.3324
74.3010
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
67.0340
204.0
AO
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
ANALISIS DE
SIGNOS DE LA
VARIACION
PORCENTUAL DEL
PRECIO
MODIFICADO
-2.20
18.2290
18.3701
18.5113
18.6524
18.7935
18.9346
19.0758
19.2169
19.3580
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
-1.000000
1.000000
-2.20
18.2290
18.3701
18.5113
-18.6524
-18.7935
-18.9346
-19.0758
-19.2169
19.3580
166.9431
-1.0000
-22.4033
P
%
P
proyectado
3.992
4.631
5.270
5.909
6.547
7.186
7.825
8.464
9.103
58.927
O
(%)
O
PRECIO DE Ag
PROYECTADO
($/oz-tr)
14.680
18.073
22.240
27.617
20.570
15.045
10.798
7.599
5.242
6.948
PRECIO DE Ag
PROYECTADO
($/oz-tr)
14.68
18.07
22.24
27.62
20.57
15.04
10.80
7.60
5.24
6.95
DENCIA DE PRECIOS
+ 7320463.58686999x^3 - 10769045555.6857x^2 + 8442214944170.09x - 2755146704410200
2022
2024
DEMANDA D x
103
PRECIO
VARIA. D
AO
P (US$/TM)
D x 103
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
884.20
900.20
26850.00
25350.00
25625.00
26046.00
25774.00
26386.00
5.70
6.46
4.39
4.63
4.91
6.69
7.34
11.57
.
16.00
25949.80
-1500.00
275.00
421.00
-272.00
612.00
VARIA. P
P
(US$/TM)
..
0.76
-2.07
0.24
0.28
1.78
0.65
4.23
D/D
P/P
(%)
(%)
..
1.7774
96.6473
-5.9172
1.0732
1.6164
-1.0553
2.3194
..
13.3333
-32.0433
5.467
6.0475
36.2525
9.716
57.6294
La ecuacin es:
AO
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
28
P / P
D / D
1.78
96.65
-5.92
1.07
1.62
-1.06
2.32
96.4612
91.4612
D/D x t
1.7774
193.2946
-17.7516
4.2928
8.082
-6.3318
16.2358
199.5992
t2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
140
AO
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-6.6732
t
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
40.387
-6.6517 t
RESULTADOS.
DEMANDA Y PRECIO PROYECTADO
Demanda
Precios
AO
D x 103
P(US$/Oz)
2003
26386.00
11.57
2004
26373.17
32.06
2005
26353.70
75.65
2006
26379.83
138.37
2007
26412.61
314.51
2008
26452.04
854.47
2009
2010
26498.13
26445.39
2700.76
14675.505
12190.45
-13974.263
1846.29
11974.75
46.09
-52.737
216.07
443.384
RESULTADOS DE VARIACIONES
AO
P. REAL
P.PROY.
VARIACION
PORCENTUAL
2003
7.23
11.57
-4.34
60.03
2004
4.39
32.06
-27.67
630.19
2005
4.63
75.65
-71.02
1533.87
2006
4.91
138.37
-133.46
2718.08
2007
2008
2009
6.69
7.34
11.57
314.51
854.47
2700.76
-307.82
-847.13
-2689.19
4601.15
-11541.29
-23242.78
2500.00
2000.00
plata 2003-2012
Polynomial (plata 2003-2012)
1500.00
f(x)
= - 0.0067675876x^6 + 81.1655389358x^5 - 405582.21176776x^4 + 1080849820.3209x^3 - 1620147936988.3x^2 + 1295158377895490x - 431379824034839000
R = 0
1000.00
500.00
0.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
MEDIA
D/D (X)
P/P (Y)
0.6043
87.4286
VARIANZA
VAR(X)
7.8676
COVARIANZA
COV(X,Y)
-52.5018
b
c
-6.6732
91.4612
D/D
D/D Futura
-12.827
-19.4783
-26.130
-32.782
-39.4334
-46.085
-52.737
ecio y la demanda al
SIGNOS
1.00
1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
MEDIA
T (X)
D / D (Y)
4
13.7802
VARIANZA
VAR(X)
COVARIANZA
COV(X,Y)
-26.6066
e
d
-6.6517
40.387
431379824034839000
-1.00
1
163.1x - 14942089482768800
PLOMO
PRECIO (Ctvs.US$/lb)
AO
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20.59
2005
AO
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
21.6
2006
23.36
2007
40.21
2008
44.29
2009
PRECIOS
OPTIMISTA REALISTA PESIMISTA
P.PROYECTADO
77.91
94.83
77.91
77.91
80.73
117.03
80.73
77.91
86.31
117.03
86.31
58.5
86.8
117.03
86.8
44.29
84.75
117.03
84.75
40.21
82.71
117.03
82.71
23.36
78.54
117.03
78.54
21.6
75.47
117.03
75.47
20.59
73.25
ZINC
PRECIO (Ctvs.US$/lb)
AO
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
PLATA:
40.17
2005
AO
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
35.32
2006
37.54
2007
47.53
2008
62.68
2009
PRECIO (US$/OzTr)
AO
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
4.39
2005
AO
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
4.63
2006
4.91
2007
6.69
2008
7.34
2009
58.5
2010
117.03
2011
94.83
2012
AO BASE
77.91
2013
77.91
2014
80.73
2015
86.31
2016
86.8
2017
ROYECTADO
PLOMO
90
85
80
75
70
65
2013
148.56
2010
147.07
2011
2014
85.04
2012
2015
AO BASE
75.05
2013
ROYECTADO
2016
2017
75.05
2014
2018
76.72
2015
2019
88.17
2016
2020
96.05
2017
ZINC
120
100
80
ZINC
60
40
20
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2021
11.57
2010
13.42
2011
15.01
2012
AO BASE
14.68
2013
14.68
2014
14.74
2015
14.57
2016
14.14
2017
ROYECTADO
PLATA
16
14
12
10
PLATA
8
6
4
2
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2021
86.8
2018
84.75
2019
82.71
2020
78.54
2021
96.91
2020
95.25
2021
PLOMO
2020
2021
99.24
2018
ZINC
98.84
2019
75.47
2022
13.15
2018
PLATA
2021
12.38
2019
11.57
2020
10.99
2021
AO
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
COBRE
ORO
ZINC
PLATA
Ctvs.US$/lb
US$/OzTr
Ctvs.US$/lb
US$/OzTr
133.18
104.14
103.28
75.02
71.32
82.24
71.6
70.74
80.7
129.99
166.87
304.91
322.93
315.51
233.52
384.52
388.25
331.56
294.48
279.17
279.37
271.23
310.13
363.62
409.85
445.47
604.58
697.41
872.72
973.62
46.78
46.52
59.75
46.46
48.82
51.16
40.17
35.32
37.54
47.53
62.68
148.56
147.07
85.04
75.05
5.19
5.19
4.89
5.54
5.25
5
4.39
4.63
4.91
6.69
7.34
11.57
13.42
15.01
14.68
PLOMO
ESTAO
Ctvs.US$/lb Ctvs.US$/lb
28.62
35.12
28.32
23.98
22.8
20.59
21.6
20.53
23.36
40.21
44.29
58.5
117.03
94.83
77.91
281.82
279.62
256.09
251.3
245.07
246.57
203.4
184.18
222.03
383.13
334.84
398.29
659.47
839.6
615.83