Soyun Park

2018 Math
Mr. N Parsons
October 29th 2014
Modeling Exponential Growth
Graph is a diagram showing the relation between variable quantities, typically of two variables,
each measured along one of a pair of axes at right angles. In this assignment, I will be using
graph software such as: Excel and Autograph to demonstrate how to make best fit for
exponential lines and also to see the correlations from the data to exponential function and the
graph. I will be identifying patterns, modeling exponential graph using Excel and Autograph.
Section A: Identifying Patterns-Bacteria Growth
In this section, I will be identifying and stating the pattern for bacteria growth. There are two
variables. The time x in hours and number of bacteria cells y. I will be finding the relationship
between these two variables and form an exponential function to make a graph. Then by using
graph, I will be able to know what the number of bacteria cells will be in any given time.
Time:
x
(hours
)
# of
bacter
ia
cells:
y
Patter
n

10

11

12

12

24

48

96

192

384

768

153
6

307
2

6144

1228
8

2457
6

6(2)0

6(2)

6(2)

6(2)

6(2)

6(2)

6(2)

6(2)

6(2)8 6(2)9

6(2)1

6(2)1

6(2)1

The pattern I recognized from the table is y=6(2)x. Since the numbers of bacteria cells are
doubling each time, I thought that the equation should involve multiplication of 2. Then I
recognized that y, which is the numbers of bacteria cell starts with 6 and keep multiplying by 6.
Then I tried to relate the pattern with x, which is time. That is how I found the pattern: y=6(2)x.

Bacteria Growth
30000
25000
20000
Number of bacteria cells (y)

15000
10000
5000
0
0

Time in hours (x)

10

12

14

This graph shows that it begins at an initial value and increases at a continuously increasing
slope, therefore concave up and takes off extremely rapidly. However from the time 0 to 6, I see
no difference of number of bacteria cells. It is due to the size of the graph. Also the range of
number of bacteria cells is very big (range of 5000). The other reason why the points are
growing rapidly starting from after 8 hours to 12 hours is because the number of x has
correlation with y. When the x gets bigger, the y gets bigger also.
The equation used in this graph is y=a(b)x. The y is the numbers of bacteria cells and x is the
time. The a is the first value of the pattern and b is the multiplier. The relationship between y
and x is: x is the exponent of the multiplier to get the numbers of bacteria cells (y). For
example, we know that the first pattern for y is 6, and we are given the information that the y is
doubling in every hour. To get the numbers of bacteria at any given hours, the first number of
bacteria should be multiplied by the multiplier with the exponent of x.
Using the equation I found which is: y=6(2)x, I can find the total number of bacteria at any given
time by substituting the number of hour in x. For example, if I want to find out the total number
of bacteria after 24 hours, I substitute 24 in x and make equation that looks like this: y=6(2)24 =
100,663,296.
By using the equation, I was considering if the result of bacteria numbers get into half, when the
time gets to half. For example, the number of bacteria after 24 hours is 100,663,296. People
might think that then after 12 hours, the number of bacteria is 50,331,648 using ratio (because
the time got half, the number of bacteria gets half). However this is not true by my little
calculation. 50,331,648 6(2)2350,331,643 6 (2)12 . I can say this because the multiplier in the
equation (y=6(2)x) is 2. Halving number means dividing by 2. However in this equation, when
divided by 2, the number of bacteria represents the time of 1 hour before.
6(2)24=100,663,296
6 ( 2 )24

6(2)12 (50,331,648 24,576

2
6 (2)24

=6(2) 24-1
2
6(2)23 = 6(2)23
The actual number of bacteria after 12 hours is 24,576. Halving the number of bacteria does not
mean halving the time.
I believe that bacteria can grow infinitely because bacteria is living cells that have evolved to
survive and reproduce in their natural environment. People reproduce people and we dont know
how much people there are going to be in the year of 3000. I cant estimate the number of
bacteria and so believe that its going to remain infinitely.
Section B: Exponential Modeling-Excel
In this section, I will be using the data I found which is the population of Philippines from 1810 to
2000 (years increasing by 10 years) to model a graph with an exponential line and look at the
line equation in detail to figure out what e means in Excel. I will be able to predict the
population in the other years (future).
These are the tables for population of Philippines from the year of 1810 to 2000. I rounded up to
a million with one decimal place.

Data: (HDDWC, 2003)

Population of Philippines from 1900 to 2000

90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
Population (millions)

f(x) = 6.52 exp( 0.02 x )

50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Years (since 1900)

This graph shows the population in Philippines from the year of 1900 to 2000. The curve on the
graph is almost perfect. It touches all the points smoothly and fit the set of points very well.
The exponential function equation I got here is y=6.5219e0.0244x. In this equation, 6.5219 is the yintercept and the letter e is the constant. Since the equation is the pattern, which Excel found,
even though it is not exact, I believe that it is possible to calculate and predict the population
for other years. The letter e represents Eulers number. Eulers number is a real and irrational
number and the first few digits are: 2.71828 .
From my understanding of why Excel uses the letter e for the equation is because: e
represents the gradient or slope of the function f(x)=ex and f(x) represents the y in my graph.
Therefore the Excel represents the slope of exponential line using e.

Population of Philippines from 1810 to 2000

90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0

f(x) = 1.59 exp( 0.02 x )

50.0
Population (millions)

40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Years (since 1810)

This graph shows the population in Philippines from the year of 1810 to 2000. The curve fits
very well (the most accurate points are) from the year of 1810 to 1900, but from 1910 to 2000
the line does not meet the points well and the curve is not even close to the points.
When I compare this graph to the graph of population in Philippines from 1900-2000, this graph
is less smoother and fits the set of points less than the first one. Since the second graph has a
large range of data, some of the points dont fit with the line. However the first graph has a
small range of data and fits very well with the exponential line.
The exponential line from the second graph does not reach to the final data. It is because it has
a large data range of the years, x. In section C, I am going to make a better-fit curve for this
graph using Autograph.
Section C: Exponential Modeling-Autograph
In this section, I will be using Autograph software. I will be changing the values of a,b,c and k
from the equation: y=a(b)kx+c, which I got from section B (y=1.5888e0.0191x) to demonstrate a
better exponential line that fits the set of data better smoothly. I will demonstrate the way to
predict the population of Philippines in other years.

The equation used in this graph is the one I got from Excel in section B which is:
y=1.5888e0.0191x. Based on the exponential function y=a(b)kx+c, a=1.5888, b=e, k=0.0191, c=0.
I will be changing the variables a,b,k and c to make the curve fit better.
Equation: y=1e0.0191x+0
After adjusting a, the curve went lower
than before. The slope does not change at
all, but the curve line just transforms down
a bit. The y-intercept got changed. It is
0.5888 lower than before (1.5888 1 =
0.5888).
Therefore the variable a represents the yintercept, the movement of curve up and
down.

Equation: y=1(3)0.0191x+0
After adjusting b, the curve bends
more. e represents Eulers number
which is approximately 2.71. However
that was not enough bending of the line.
To reach to the final data, I thought it
should be more than 2.71.
Therefore the variable b represents the
bending of the curve, which has impact
on the slope but does not affect the yintercept.

Equation: y=1(3)0.0207x+0
After adjusting k, the curve bends more
upright. It is similar effect as changing the
variable b, but this one is more to upright
and b is less. They have similar effects
because k is the exponent of b and has
impact of bending.
Therefore the variable k represents the
bending of the curve upright, which has the
impact on the slope and has no impact or
relationship with the y-intercept.

Equation: y=1(3)0.0207x+1
After adjusting c, from 0 to 1, the yintercept had increased by 1. It has a same
effect with the variable a, so I tried
changing a into 2 and c into 0. However
there was a bending of curve because a is
a multiplier with bkx which effects the
bending of the curve.
Therefore the variable c represents the yintercept which moves the curve up and
down. However it does not have same
effect as the variable a since c is the
constant that has no relationship with other
variables that effect on bending of the
curve.

Equation: y=1(3)0.0207x+1
This is my final graph for the population in Philippines from 1810 to 2000. Comparing this graph
to the first graph in section C, the curve meets the set of points better, even though there are
some points that do not meet the curve (from 1890 to 1960). However even though the points
do not meet the curve, the shape looks similar and this graph has a more rapid curve than the
first graph.
a = 1.5888 -> 1
b = e -> 3
k = 0.0191 -> 0.0207
c = 0 ->1
After demonstrating the exponential function in the graph, I could think of some real life
examples related to it. The example is the bank account balance. If I start with $100 and the
annual interest is 5%. If I want to know what the total money is after 10 years, I need to use
exponential function. y will represent the total money and x will represent the number of years.
The first investment ($100) represents a, and the total interest is b. Therefore the equation will
be: y=100(105%)x.
There is an example using mobile phones. In 2000, there were 300 mobile phone subscribers in
Bali. The number of subscribers increased by 30% per year after 2000. To get the number of
mobile phone subscribers after certain year, I could use exponential function. y representing the
total number of phone subscribers certain year, x representing the number of years, a
representing number of mobile phones on the first year, and b representing the number of
subscribers increasing. Therefore the equation will be: y=300(1.30)x.
The population information of Philippines in 2010 on the Internet is about 92.3 million. I was
considering if I could predict it accurately with my own equation.
y=1(3)0.0207(200)+1
y=34.14+1
y=94.5 + 1
y= 95.5

Since I rounded up to nearest million, my prediction of population of Philippines is 95.5 million. It

is actually very different by 3.3 million (95.5 92.3 = 3.3). I am very disappointed looking at the
result because the difference is huge even though the curve fits the point pretty well.
I was wondering in what year would Philippines reach the total if I double the population of
Philippines from the total of year 2000. These are the steps:
Population in 2000 = 76.5 (million)
y=1(3)0.0207x+1
153=1(3)0.0207x+1 (76.5(2)=153)
153-1=1(3)0.0207x+1-1
152=30.0207x
3log 152 = 4.573

4.573
3
=30.0207x
4.573=0.0207x (Canceling 3, the base of the exponent)
x=220.9
In my data, the year of 2000 is represented as 190 and I got 220 which is 30 years after
190. 2000+30=2030.
Population will be doubled in 30 years after 2000.
I believe that it is very important to use manual function using Autograph because:
By using manual function, I can keep changing the equation until the curve fits the points
well.
It is also better than using Excel because Excel provides an equation automatically, but
when I change the equation to fit better, it is more accurate.
If I get a more accurate equation (function), I can predict other variables (population or
years) more accurately.
I assume that the accuracy of my exponential function will decrease, as the number of years
gets bigger. For the result to be accurate, all of the calculation of population growth using
exponential function should be constant throughout the interval of years. This exponential
function represents the average rate for the entire period. However for the next year, the most
quantities of population dont really grow that way. Therefore my prediction for when double the
population of 2000 will arrive would be very far away from the truth.
I believe that the population growth is an example of exponential functions in real life. From
year to year growth in the population is increasing throughout the country. Rapid human
population growth has a variety of consequences such as: High fertility rates have historically
been strongly correlated with poverty and high childhood mortality rates. Falling fertility rates
are generally associated with improved standards of living, increased life expectancy and
lowered infant mortality. Overpopulation and poverty have long been associated with increased
death and disease. (Kinder, 2014)
Works Cited
"Historical Demographical Data of the Whole Country." The Philippines. N.p., 2003. Web. 28 Oct.
2014.
Kinder, "98.07.02: The Population Explosion: Causes and Consequences."98.07.02: The
Population Explosion: Causes and Consequences. N.p., n.d. Web. 27 Oct. 2014.