ESTACIN

junito
alertas

japio

1979

78

48

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

71
89
66
115
83
78
76
70
138
69
80
76
110
80
116
102

57
58
71
63.8
79
112
60.5
83.6
70.5
95.2
78.8
84.4
110
64
32
83

Media
Desv.stand
n=

88.06
20.60
17

73.58
20.78
17

10 MIN
Tr (aos)

P 10/P
MAX(24H)

0.202

0.21

10

0.219

20

0.227

50

0.235

100

0.241

mximo

0.241

Promedio

0.222

10 minutos

30 minutos

Precipitacin esperada mxima en 24 horas (P24h Tr)

Tr

GUMBEL SIN CORREGIR

GUMBEL CORREGIDA

LOG NORMAL

ESTACION 7

ESTACION 8

ESTACION 7

ESTACION 8

ESTACION 7

84.674

70.163

85.059

70.551

86.512

102.883

88.526

107.491

93.173

103.210

10

114.938

100.683

122.343

108.150

113.508

25

130.170

116.044

141.108

127.075

125.621

50

141.470

127.440

155.030

141.114

134.124

100

152.687

138.751

168.848

155.049

142.264

Tr
2

10
I [mm/h]
102.63

30
I [mm/h]
66.05

ESTACION 7
GUMBEL SIN CORREGIR
60
90
120
I [mm/h]
I [mm/h]
I [mm/h]
41.32
29.64
23.88

5
10
25
50
100

106.69
111.26
115.33
119.39
122.44

71.13
75.87
79.59
83.66
86.20

44.71
47.84
50.38
53.01
54.70

31.95
34.10
35.85
37.71
38.84

25.78
27.52
28.92
30.44
31.37

30 MIN

60 MIN

90 MIN

120 MIN

150 MIN

180 MIN

P 30/P
MAX(24H)

P 60/P
MAX(24H)

P 90/P MAX(24H)

P 120/P
MAX(24H)

P 150/P
MAX(24H)

P 180/P
MAX(24H)

0.39

0.488

0.525

0.564

0.596

0.612

0.42

0.528

0.566

0.609

0.641

0.655

0.448

0.565

0.604

0.65

0.684

0.696

0.47

0.595

0.635

0.683

0.717

0.729

0.494

0.626

0.668

0.719

0.754

0.764

0.509

0.646

0.688

0.741

0.777

0.787

0.509

0.646

0.688

0.741

0.777

0.787

0.455

0.575

0.614

0.661

0.695

0.707

60 minutos

90 minutos

120 minutos

150 minutos

180 minutos

0.67

0.50

0.40

0.33

horas (P24h Tr)

LOG NORMAL

LOG PEARSON III

ESTACION 8

ESTACION 7

ESTACION 8

71.140

83.334

67.450

91.448

101.604

89.429

104.700

114.922

106.561

120.950

133.106

131.333

132.763

147.646

152.209

144.374

163.054

175.300

150
I [mm/h]
20.19

180
I [mm/h]
17.27

10
I [mm/h]
85.04

30
I [mm/h]
54.73

ESTACION 8
GUMBEL SIN CORREGIR
60
90
I [mm/h]
I [mm/h]
34.24

21.71
23.17
24.28
25.54
26.32

18.49
19.64
20.58
21.56
22.21

88.41
92.19
98.93
98.93
101.46

58.94
62.87
65.95
69.32
71.43

37.05
39.64
41.75
43.92
45.33

ACION 8
SIN CORREGIR
120
I [mm/h]

150
I [mm/h]

180
I [mm/h]

AO

PP
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Px
x
U
X
xln
Uln
Sn17
Yn17

LN PP
78
71
89
66
115
83
78
76
70
138
69
80
76
110
80
116
102

4.3567
4.2627
4.4886
4.1897
4.7449
4.4188
4.3567
4.3307
4.2485
4.9273
4.2341
4.3820
4.3307
4.7005
4.3820
4.7536
4.6250

N Aos
media del caudal
deviacion estandar
Coeficiente de asimeria
probabilidad
logaritmo natural
logaritmo natural Coeficiente de asimeria
SEGN TABLA 1

17
88.06
20.60
1.17
4.45
0.22
0.87
1.0411
0.5181

TABLA 1 PARA PROBABILIDAD GUMBEL

TABLA 2 PARA LOG NORMAL

periodo de retorno
Tr
2
5
10
25
50
100

A PROBABILIDAD GUMBEL

1/Tr
P (probabilidad)
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.04
0.02
0.01

1-P
F(x)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.96
0.98
0.99

-LN(-LN(Fx))
Y
0.367
1.500
2.250
3.199
3.902
4.600

2 PARA LOG NORMAL

TABLA 3 PARA PROBABILIDAD PEARSON III

GUMBEL
Sin corregir (tiende a infinito)
Corregida (17 aos)
= (y-0.5772)/1.2826 X = P + x
17 = (Y-Yn)/Sn X17 = P+ 17x

X
17 = (Y-Yn)/Sn X17
-0.164
84.674
-0.146
85.059
0.719
102.883
0.943
107.491
1.305
114.938
1.664
122.343
2.044
130.170
2.575
141.108
2.592
141.470
3.250
155.030
3.137
152.687
3.921
168.848

AD PEARSON III

LOG NORMAL
Z (TABLA 2)
Z
0.0251
0.8416
1.2816
1.7507
2.0537
2.3263

LOG PEARSON III

e^(X+Z*xln)
U (TABLA 3) e^(X+U*xln)
X
U -0.9
X
86.5
-0.14807
83.3
103.2
0.76902
101.6
113.5
1.33889
114.9
125.6
2.01848
133.1
134.1
2.49811
147.6
142.3
2.95735
163.1

AO

PP
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Px
x
U
X
xln
Uln
Sn17
Yn17

LN PP
48
57
58
71
63.8
79
112
60.5
83.6
70.5
95.2
78.8
84.4
110
64
32
83

3.8712
4.0431
4.0604
4.2627
4.1558
4.3694
4.7185
4.1026
4.4260
4.2556
4.5560
4.3669
4.4356
4.7005
4.1589
3.4657
4.4188

N Aos
media del caudal
deviacion estandar
Coeficiente de asimeria
probabilidad
logaritmo natural
logaritmo natural Coeficiente de asimeria
SEGN TABLA 1

17
73.58
20.78
0.1
4.26
0.31
-0.8
1.0411
0.5181

TABLA 1 PARA PROBABILIDAD GUMBEL

TABLA 2 PARA LOG NORMAL

periodo de retorno
Tr
2
5
10
25
50
100

A PROBABILIDAD GUMBEL

1/Tr
P (probabilidad)
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.04
0.02
0.01

1-P
F(x)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.96
0.98
0.99

-LN(-LN(Fx))
Y
0.367
1.500
2.250
3.199
3.902
4.600

2 PARA LOG NORMAL

TABLA 3 PARA PROBABILIDAD PEARSON III

GUMBEL
Sin corregir (tiende a infinito)
Corregida (17 aos)
= (y-0.5772)/1.2826 X = P + x
17 = (Y-Yn)/Sn X17 = P+ 17x

X
17 = (Y-Yn)/Sn X17
-0.164
70.2
-0.146
70.6
0.719
88.5
0.943
93.2
1.305
100.7
1.664
108.2
2.044
116.0
2.575
127.1
2.592
127.4
3.250
141.1
3.137
138.8
3.921
155.0

AD PEARSON III

LOG NORMAL
Z (TABLA 2)
Z
0.0251
0.8416
1.2816
1.7507
2.0537
2.3263

LOG PEARSON III

e^(X+Z*xln)
U (TABLA 3) e^(X+U*xln)
X
U -0.9
X
71.1
-0.14807
67.5
91.4
0.76902
89.4
104.7
1.33889
106.6
120.9
2.01848
131.3
132.8
2.49811
152.2
144.4
2.95735
175.3

ESTACIN
AO

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

JULUMITO
ALERTAS
(mm)
7

JAPIO
(mm)
8

78.00
71.00
89.00
66.00
115.00
83.00
78.00
76.00
70.00
138.00
69.00
80.00
76.00
110.00
80.00
116.00
102.00

61.50
76.30
73.00
53.20
62.40
70.20
65.10
92.70
45.00
120.00
74.20
51.70
80.00
92.70
48.00
57.00
58.00
71.00
63.80
79.00
112.00
60.50
83.60
70.50
95.20
78.80
84.40
110.00
64.00
32.00
83.00

AO
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Media

Coef Asimetra
N
Yn=
Sn=
Yn=17
Sn=17

ESTACIN JULUMITO
ALERTAS
P7
(mm)

LnP7
(mm)

78.00
71.00
89.00
66.00
115.00
83.00
78.00
76.00
70.00
138.00
69.00
80.00
76.00
110.00
80.00
116.00
102.00
88.059
20.605
1.2
17

4.357
4.263
4.489
4.190
4.745
4.419
4.357
4.331
4.248
4.927
4.234
4.382
4.331
4.700
4.382
4.754
4.625
4.455
0.216
0.9
17
0.5772
1.2826
0.5181
1.0411

TR
(Aos)
1 / P>
2
5
10
20
50
100

P>
1/TR
0.50
0.20
0.10
0.05
0.02
0.01

F(x)
P< = 1 0.50
0.80
0.90
0.95
0.98
0.99

Gumbel Corregido n=17

Log - Normal
Y
Qcor n=17
Z
cor n=17
P> 0-Ln{-Ln[F(x)]} (Y-Yn=17)/Sn=17 Qmed+ cor n=17* Tabla Normal
0.367
-0.146
85.059
0.0000
1.500
0.943
107.491
0.8416
2.250
1.664
122.343
1.2816
2.970
2.355
136.589
1.6449
3.902
3.250
155.030
2.0537
4.600
3.921
168.848
2.3263

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100

Log - Normal
Log - Pearson III
QLog-Normal
U-0.9
QLog-Pearson III
e^(Ln(XX+Z*Ln) Tabla con =0.9 e^(Ln(XX+*Ln)
86.044
-0.14807
83.3337
103.210
0.76902
101.6037
113.508
1.33889
114.9223
122.781
1.85856
128.5839
134.124
2.49811
147.6463
142.264
2.95735
163.0543

10
30
60
90
120
Min
Min
Min
Min
Min
P10/Pmax (24h) P30/Pmax (24h) P60/Pmax (24h) P90/Pmax (24h) P120/Pmax (24h)
0.2016
0.3896
0.4875
0.5246
0.5635
0.2099
0.4198
0.5284
0.5663
0.6089
0.2195
0.4476
0.5651
0.6044
0.6502
0.2272
0.4699
0.5946
0.6348
0.6833
0.2354
0.4938
0.6262
0.6676
0.7188
0.2407
0.509
0.6463
0.6884
0.7414

150
180
Min
Min
P150/Pmax (24h) P160/Pmax (24h)
0.5959
0.6119
0.6415
0.6553
0.6836
0.6963
0.7173
0.7291
0.7536
0.7644
0.7766
0.7868

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm)

10
30
Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
17.148
33.139

5
10
20
50
100

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100

22.562
26.854
31.033
36.494
40.642

45.125
54.761
64.183
76.554
85.944

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (m
10
30
Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
17.346
33.523
21.664
43.328
24.915
50.806
27.896
57.695
31.573
66.230
34.243
72.412

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm

10
30
Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
16.800
32.467
21.327
42.653
25.225
51.439
29.214
60.422
34.756
72.908
39.247
82.995

ECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO

60
90
120
150
180
Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
mm
mm
mm
41.466
44.622
47.931
50.686
52.047

56.798
69.136
81.216
97.080
109.127

60.872
73.944
86.707
103.498
116.235

65.451
79.547
93.331
111.435
125.184

68.955
83.634
97.975
116.830
131.128

70.439
85.187
99.587
118.505
132.850

PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG - NORMAL

60
90
120
150
180
Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
mm
mm
mm
41.946
45.139
48.486
51.274
52.650
54.536
58.448
62.845
66.209
67.634
64.143
68.604
73.803
77.594
79.036
73.005
77.941
83.896
88.071
89.519
83.988
89.541
96.408
101.075
102.524
91.945
97.934
105.474
110.482
111.933

RECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG - PEARSON III

60
90
120
150
180
Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
mm
mm
mm
40.625
43.717
46.959
49.659
50.992
53.687
57.538
61.866
65.179
66.581
64.943
69.459
74.722
78.561
80.020
76.456
81.625
87.861
92.233
93.751
92.456
98.569
106.128
111.266
112.861
105.382
112.247
120.888
126.628
128.291

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO GUMBE

10
30
60
Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
mm
14.141
27.327
34.194

5
10
20
50
100

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100

18.970
22.778
26.496
31.368
35.074

37.939
46.448
54.800
65.800
74.170

47.754
58.641
69.342
83.443
94.176

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG

10
30
60
Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
mm
14.217
27.476
34.380
18.771
37.542
47.254
22.232
45.336
57.237
25.488
52.716
66.705
29.638
62.171
78.841
32.728
69.210
87.878

TABLA PRECIPITACIONES (mm) - METODO LOG10

30
60
Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
mm
13.888
26.839
33.584
18.596
37.191
46.812
22.487
45.854
57.892
26.436
54.676
69.186
31.868
66.850
84.775
36.222
76.598
97.260

S (mm) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO

90
120
150
180
Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
mm
mm
36.796
39.525
41.798
42.920

51.179
62.719
74.030
88.959
100.311

55.029
67.472
79.686
95.782
108.034

57.975
70.937
83.652
100.419
113.163

59.223
72.255
85.028
101.858
114.649

NES (mm) - METODO LOG-NORMAL

90
120
150
180
Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
mm
mm
36.996
39.740
42.024
43.153
50.644
54.453
57.369
58.603
61.218
65.857
69.240
70.526
71.215
76.656
80.470
81.794
84.053
90.499
94.881
96.241
93.603
100.809
105.596
106.982

ES (mm) - METODO LOG-PEARSON III

90
120
150
180
Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin Precipitacin
mm
mm
mm
mm
36.139
38.819
41.051
42.154
50.170
53.944
56.832
58.055
61.918
66.610
70.032
71.333
73.863
79.506
83.463
84.836
90.379
97.311
102.022
103.484
103.596
111.571
116.869
118.403

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO

10
30
60
90
Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h
84.844
54.655
34.194
24.531

5
10
20
50
100

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100

113.818
136.666
158.976
188.206
210.443

75.879
92.895
109.599
131.600
148.339

47.754
58.641
69.342
83.443
94.176

34.119
41.813
49.354
59.306
66.874

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO LOG-NORMAL

10
30
60
90
Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h
85.304
54.951
34.380
24.664
112.627
75.085
47.254
33.762
133.395
90.672
57.237
40.812
152.930
105.431
66.705
47.477
177.826
124.342
78.841
56.035
196.370
138.419
87.878
62.402
TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO LOG-PEARSON
10
30
60
90
Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h
83.329
53.679
33.584
24.093
111.573
74.382
46.812
33.447
134.920
91.709
57.892
41.279
158.617
109.352
69.186
49.242
191.210
133.701
84.775
60.253
217.334
153.196
97.260
69.064

2
5
10
20
50
100

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO

10
30
60
90
Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h
122.018
61.828
40.263
31.329
151.212
76.620
49.896
38.824
177.853
90.119
58.687
45.664
209.187
105.997
69.027
53.709
259.236
131.357
85.542
66.560
304.909
154.500
100.612
78.287

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)

TABLA INTENSIDADES (mm/h) - METODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO

10
30
60
90
Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h
mm/h

PERIODO DE
RETORNO - TR
(Aos)

2
5
10
20
50
100

101.254
126.765
150.252
178.091
222.961
264.272

62.306
76.620
90.119
105.997
131.357
154.500

40.575
50.797
60.209
71.365
89.345
105.899

31.571
39.525
46.849
55.529
69.520
82.400

ODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO

120
150
Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h
19.762
16.719

180
Intensidad
mm/h
14.307

27.515
33.736
39.843
47.891
54.017

23.190
28.375
33.461
40.168
45.265

19.741
24.085
28.343
33.953
38.216

METODO LOG-NORMAL
120
150
Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h
19.870
16.810
27.227
22.947
32.928
27.696
38.328
32.188
45.250
37.952
50.405
42.238

180
Intensidad
mm/h
14.384
19.534
23.509
27.265
32.080
35.661

ETODO LOG-PEARSON
120
150
Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h
19.410
16.421
26.972
22.733
33.305
28.013
39.753
33.385
48.655
40.809
55.786
46.747

180
Intensidad
mm/h
14.051
19.352
23.778
28.279
34.495
39.468

ODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO

120
150
Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h
26.220
22.838
32.493
28.302
38.218
33.289
44.951
39.154
55.706
48.521
65.520
57.070

180
Intensidad
mm/h
20.402
25.283
29.737
34.976
43.345
50.981

ODO GUMBEL CORREGIDO

120
150
Intensidad Intensidad
mm/h
mm/h

180
Intensidad
mm/h

26.423
33.080
39.209
46.474
58.183
68.963

23.015
28.814
34.152
40.480
50.679
60.069

20.559
25.739
30.509
36.161
45.272
53.660

ESTACIN JAPIO
AO

P8
(mm)

LnP8
(mm)

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Media

Coef Asimetra
N
Yn=31
Sn=31

61.50
76.30
73.00
53.20
62.40
70.20
65.10
92.70
45.00
120.00
74.20
51.70
80.00
92.70
48.00
57.00
58.00
71.00
63.80
79.00
112.00
60.50
83.60
70.50
95.20
78.80
84.40
110.00
64.00
32.00
83.00
73.187
19.920
0.4
31

4.119
4.335
4.290
3.974
4.134
4.251
4.176
4.529
3.807
4.787
4.307
3.945
4.382
4.529
3.871
4.043
4.060
4.263
4.156
4.369
4.718
4.103
4.426
4.256
4.556
4.367
4.436
4.700
4.159
3.466
4.419
4.256
0.282
-0.5
31
0.5371
1.1159

TR
(Aos)
1 / P>
2

P>
1/TR
0.50

5
10
20
50
100

0.20
0.10
0.05
0.02
0.01

Gumbel Corregido n=31

Log - Normal
F(x)
Y
Qcor n=31
Z
cor n=31
P< = 1 - P> 0-Ln{-Ln[F(x)]} (Y-Yn=31)/Sn=31 Qmed+ cor n=31* Tabla Normal
0.50
0.367
-0.153
70.142
0.0000

0.80
0.90
0.95
0.98
0.99

1.500
2.250
2.970
3.902
4.600

0.863
1.535
2.180
3.015
3.641

90.375
103.770
116.620
133.252
145.716

0.8416
1.2816
1.6449
2.0537
2.3263

Log - Normal
Log - Pearson III
QLog-Normal
U-0.5
QLog-Pearson III
X
e^(Ln(X+Z*Ln) Tabla con =0.5 e^(Ln(XX+*Ln)
70.523
-0.083302
68.8841

89.429
101.253
112.185
125.903
135.972

0.80829
1.32309
1.77428
2.31084
2.68572

88.5923
102.4452
116.3566
135.3797
150.4874