Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Anul II
131 B
Tema 1
Regiuni
Nord - Vest
Sud - Est
Sud - Muntenia
Judete
Bihor
Bistrita - Nasaud
Cluj
Maramures
Satu Mare
Salaj
Braila
Buzau
Constanta
Galati
Tulcea
Vrancea
Arges
Calarasi
Dambovita
Giurgiu
Ialomita
Prahova
Teleorman
Exercitiul 1 a)
Variabila X
Variabila Y
Media aritmetica
xi
67523
X =
=
=3553.84 lei
n
19
i=1
yi
24108
Y = i=1 =
=1268.84 salariai
n
19
3553.84
X h =
i=1
1268.84
lei/ salariat.
de salariati.
Media armonica
19
n
19
=
=3475.62lei
Y h= n
=
=756.68 salariai
1 0.005466643
1 0.02510982
y
xi
i=1
i
Media patratica
X p =
X g=
x 2i
i=1
245826359
=3596.98 lei
19
Y p=
y 2i
i=1
= 49442014/19=1613.14 salariai
Media geometrica
n
x 2i
Y g =
i=1
1
log 10 X g = ( log10 x i) =3513.72lei
n i=1
i=1
y 2i
n
1
log 10 X g = ( log10 x i) =958.65 salariati
n i=1
Mediana
y
x
Cuartil
Cuartila
a
Modul
1(Q1)
3(Q3)
779 Nu exista valoare modala
458
2103
3558
3992
3205
3729
b)
Interpretari:
Mediana(y): 50% din judete au un numar de salariai din sectorul energiei electrice, termice,
gaze i ap sub 779 , iar restul de 50% peste 779 .
Mediana(x): 50% din judete au un castig salarial nominal mediu brut lunar in sectorul energiei
termice,apa si gaze sub 3558 RON , iar restul de 50% peste 3558 RON.
Cuartila 1 (y): 25% din judete au un numar de salariai din sectorul energiei electrice, termice,
gaze i ap sub 458, iar restul de 75% peste 458.
Cuartila 1 (x): 25% din judete au un castig salarial nominal mediu brut lunar in sectorul energiei
termice,apa si gaze sub sub 3205 RON, iar restul de 75% peste 3205 RON.
Cuartila 3 (y): 75% din judete au un numar de salariai din sectorul energiei electrice, termice,
gaze i ap sub 2103, iar restul de 75% peste 2103.
Cuartila 3 (x): 75% din judete au un castig salarial nominal mediu brut lunar in sectorul energiei
termice,apa si gaze sub sub 3729 iar restul de 75% peste 3729.
a) Indicatori simpli
1. Amplitudinea absolut : A=x max-x min
Valoarea
max
Valoarea
min
4157
5337
394
2472
Ax x max x min
Ay y max y min
=5337-2472=2865
=4157-394=3763
2. Amplitudinea relativ
A
2865
A x = x 100=
100=80.62
X
3553.84
Ay=
Ay
3763
100=
100=296.57
Y
1268.84
d=y-yy
d=x-xy
834.16
-
-465.84
175.16
d%=d/yy
*100
65.74
-67.06
d%=d/xy
*100
-13.11
4.93
|y-yy |
834.16
850.84
|x-xy |
465.84
175.16
(y-yy )
(x-xy )
217008.8
695819.39
7
723932.29 30680.29
850.84
854.16
616.84
819.84
786.84
35.16
206.84
2888.1
6
1380.1
6
810.84
489.84
711.16
848.84
61.16
658.84
874.84
935.16
734.84
438.16
67.32
12.33
854.16
438.16
729585.71
191982.3
4
91.16
-48.61
2.57
616.84
91.16
380494.18
8309.76
38.16
-64.61
1.07
819.84
38.16
672141.08
-348.84
-283.84
-62.01
2.77
-9.82
-7.99
786.84
35.16
348.84
283.84
619120.50
1236.08
1456.02
121690.8
1
80566.34
128.16
1783.1
6
-16.30
3.61
206.84
128.16
227.62
50.18
2888.16
1783.16
-533.84
108.77
-15.02
1380.16
533.84
42783.66
8341456.0
2
1904835.8
1
16424.45
3179652.
08
284987.3
9
4.16
-63.90
0.12
810.84
4.16
657464.92
-485.84
-38.61
-13.67
489.84
485.84
239945.29
438.16
56.05
12.33
711.16
438.16
505745.55
17.29
236042.5
5
191982.3
4
-40.84
-138.84
-66.90
4.82
-1.15
-3.91
848.84
61.16
40.84
138.84
720532.92
3740.29
1668.08
19277.13
-101.84
-51.92
-2.87
658.84
101.84
434072.92
10371.81
301.16
84.16
1081.8
4
-68.95
73.70
8.47
2.37
874.84
935.16
301.16
84.16
765348.71
874520.29
90696.08
7082.55
-57.91
-30.44
734.84
15398.5
3
1081.84
539992.92
18852768.
53
1170382.
34
5860278.
53
6963.16
d i%
b)
di
x
100
Indicatori sintetici
xi x
x
100
d i%
di
y
100
yi y
y
100
|x i X |
y
i 1
i=1
d=
6963.16
=366.48
19
19
15398.53
=
=810.45
2
x
( xi X ) 5860278.53
=
=
=308435.71
S
2
y
( y i y ) 18852768.53
=
=
=
19
992250.98
992250.98
(y)
=
=555.37
4. Coeficentul de variatie
d
v ' 100
366.48
3475.62
x
=(
/
)*100=10.31%
v'
d
100
y
1268.84
=(810.45/
)*100=63.87%
Exercitiul 3
1. Coeficientul de asimetrie
Pearson
Cas (y)
Cas (x)
2.Coeficientul de asimetrie
Yulle
1.42
1.39
Cay=(q-q)/
(q+q)
19
y
q=Me-Q
q=Q-Me
x
321.00
1324.00
353.00
171.00
Exercitiul 4
Greutatea specifica a judetelor(m/n)
m-nr de judete care au un nr de salariati peste medie/nr de judete unde salariile sunt
peste medie
n- nr de judete = 19
y
0.42
0.4736
84211
Tema 4
y
=2157.53+0.964132*x
=y-
(x-xy )
(y-)
2103
3088
819.71
1283.29
-465.84
418
3729
1437.72
-1019.72
175.16
2123
652
3992
3645
1691.28
1356.73
431.72
-704.73
438.16
91.16
834.1
6
850.8
4
854.1
6
616.8
(x-xy )*(y
)
388585
149031
374256
56230.0
449
3592
1305.63
-856.63
38.16
482
1304
3205
3270
932.51
995.18
-450.51
308.82
-348.84
-283.84
1062
3682
1392.40
-330.40
128.16
4157
5337
2988.04
1168.96
1783.16
2649
3020
754.15
1894.85
-533.84
458
3558
1272.85
-814.85
4.16
779
3068
800.43
-21.43
-485.84
1980
3992
1691.28
288.72
438.16
420
1330
3513
3415
1229.47
1134.98
-809.47
195.02
-40.84
-138.84
610
3452
1170.65
-560.65
-101.84
394
3855
1559.20
-1165.20
301.16
2204
3638
1349.98
854.02
84.16
534
2472
225.80
308.20
-1081.84
4
819.8
4
786.8
4
35.16
206.8
4
2888.
16
1380.
16
810.8
4
489.8
4
711.1
6
848.8
4
61.16
658.8
4
874.8
4
935.1
6
734.8
4
31283.4
274483
-9979.2
26508.4
515004
5
736786
-3371.4
237985
311599
34668.5
-8491.2
67097.8
263465
78700.9
794983
565008
5
(x-xy )
21700
8.9
(y-)
(-)
x=xxy
695819.3
9
201719
.99
465.8
4
y=y
834.1
6
x*
y
C/D
38858
6 D
30680.
29
19198
2.3
723932.2
9
729585.7
1
28519.
145
178457
.95
175.1
6
438.1
6
8309.7
62
380494.1
8
7724.4
824
91.16
1456.0
25
672141.0
8
1353.5
07
12169
0.8
619120.5
0
113117
.23
80566.
34
1236.08
74890.
05
16424.
45
31796
52
42783.66
8341456.
02
15267.
548
295564
9.9
28498
7.4
1904835.
81
264909
.36
17.288
09
657464.9
2
16.076
497
23604
2.6
19198
2.3
239945.2
9
505745.5
5
219412
.73
178457
.95
1668.0
78
720532.9
2
1550.5
19277.
13
3740.29
17918.
854
10371.
81
434072.9
2
9640.9
7
90696.
08
7082.5
51
11703
82
765348.7
1
874520.2
9
539992.9
2
84307.
045
6583.7
176
108792
7.9
38.16
348.8
4
283.8
4
128.1
6
1783.
16
533.8
4
4.16
485.8
4
438.1
6
40.84
138.8
4
101.8
4
301.1
6
84.16
1081.
850.8 14903
4
2 D
854.1 37425
6
6 C
616.8
4 56230 D
819.8 31283.
4
4 D
786.8 27448
4
3.7 C
9979.2
35.16
9 D
206.8 26508.
4
4 D
2888. 51500
16
42 C
1380. 73678
16
6 D
810.8
4 3371.4 D
489.8 23798
4
5.9 C
711.1 31159
6
9.4 C
848.8 34668.
4
5 C
8491.2
61.16
9 D
658.8 67097.
4
87 C
874.8 26346
4
6 D
935.1 78700.
6
92 C
- 79498 C
734.8
3.1
84
58602
79
1885276
8.53
544742
4.9
Ecuatia de regresie
y i=b 0+ b1x i + i
n
x y i x i x iy i
b^ 0 = i=1
2
i
i=1
i=1
n x
i=1
2
i
b^ 1=
i=1
2
=2157.53
( )
i=1
xi
n x iy i xi y i
i=1
i=1
i=1
2
( )
n x 2i
i=1
i=1
=0.964132
xi
^y =2157.53+0.964132x + ei
r y / x=
b)
cov ( x , y )
271736.28
=
=0.537536763
SxSy
569.487051022.2273
RY / X =
( ^y i Y )
i=1
n
( y i Y )2
5447424.9
=0.537536623 [ 1,1 ]
18852768.53
i=1
c) Coeficientul de determinatie
n
( ^y i Y )
R2= i=1
n
( y i Y )
i=1
5447424 . 9
= 18852768 . 53 =0.288945621
Exercitiul 4
19
( xi X )( y i Y )
cov ( x , y )= i=1
5650083.53
=297372.82
19
B. Exercitiul 1
xy \
<=xy
>xy
TOTAL
<=
>
TOTAL
5
6
11
4
4
8
9
10
19
Exercitiul 2)
Coeficientul de contingent Fechner :
=
n11n12n 21n22
5464
4
=
=
=0.0449 [ 1,1 ]
n.1n.2n1.n2. 118910 7920
Exercitiul 3)
C F 1=
CF 2=
x
2472
3020
3068
cd 910 1
=
=
=0.0526
c+ d 9+10 19
CD 7323817.0141673733.49 5650083.524
=
=
=0.62795
C + D 7323817.014+1673733.49 8997550.50
y
534
2649
779
Rx
1
2
3
Ry
19
10
12
d
-18
-8
-9
d
324
64
81
P
0
8
6
3088
3205
3270
3415
3452
3513
3558
3592
3638
3645
3682
3729
3855
3992
3992
5337
2103
482
1304
1330
610
420
458
449
2204
652
1062
418
394
1980
2123
4157
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
1
6
7
15
16
14
11
5
18
4
8
2
17
13
3
9
3
-1
-1
-8
-8
-5
-1
6
-6
9
6
13
-1
4
15
10
6 d 2i
r S =1
i=1
2
n ( n 1 )
=1
61334
=0.170175 [ 1,1 ]
2
19 ( 19 1 )
2(29)
2S
=
=0.169591 [ 1,1 ]
n( n1 ) 19(191)
Tema 5
Anul
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
9
1
1
64
64
25
1
36
36
81
36
169
1
16
225
100
1334
15
10
9
3
2
2
3
3
0
2
3
0
0
0
1
0
1200
1182.1
1311
1329.7
1000
986.4
800
600
531.4
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
yt
531.4
1209.
4
1182.
1
t/1
t/t-1
0 -
2011
1311
1329.
7
678
650.
7
779.
6
798.
3
2012
986.4
455
2009
2010
Indicatorii absoluti
1)Nivelul absolut
Y2007=531.4
Y2008=1209.4
Y2009=1182.1
Y2010=1311
Y2011=1329.7
Y2012=986.4
678
-27.3
128.9
18.7
343.3
I(t/1)
I(t/t-1) Rt/1
Rt/t-1 At/1 At/t-1
100.0
0 0.00 5.31 227.5 227.5 127.5 127.5
9
9
9
9 5.31
5.31
222.4
122.4
5 97.74
5
-2.26 5.31 12.09
246.7 110.9 146.7
1
0
1 10.90 5.31 11.82
250.2 101.4 150.2
3
3
3
1.43 5.31 13.11
185.6
2 74.18 85.62 -25.82 5.31 13.30
2012
2) Modificarea absoluta:
Cu baza fixa:
t /1=Y t Y 1
Cu baza in lant:
t /(t 1)=Y t Y t 1
INDICATORI RELATIVI:
Indicatori de dinamica
I t / 1=
Yt
100
Y1
I t / (t 1)=
Yt
100
Y t1
Ritmul de modificare
Rt /1 =I t / 11
Rt /1 =I t /1100
Rt /(t1) =I t /(t 1 )1
Rt /(t1) =I t /(t 1)100
Valoarea absoluta a unui procent
A t / 1=
t / 1 Y 1
=
R t /1 100
A t / 1=
t /(t 1 ) Y t 1
=
R t /(t 1) 100
INDICATORII MEDII:
Nivelul mediu al seriei cronologice
Yt
Y = t=1 = 6550 =1091.67 mii toneorz si orzoaica/an
n
6
Productia medie de orz si orzoaica, in perioada 2007-2012, a fost de 1092.67
mii tone.
Modificarea absolut medie:
n
y n y1
n 1
t 2
t / t 1
n 1
n /1
n 1
455
=91 miitone /an
6
=
Indicele mediu:
I n 1
n
yn
n 1 I t / t 1 n 1 I n / 1
y1
t 2
1.13(113 )
Ritmul mediu:
R I 1 100
=(1.13-1)*100=13.17%
Exercitiul 3
a)
Anul
yt
[yt- t(
t( y)
y)]
531.4
0
2007
531.4
2008
1209.4
622.4
344569
2009
1182.1
713.4
219679.69
2010
1311
804.4
256643.56
2011
2012
1329.7
986.4
5
6
895.4
986.4
188616.49
0
t(I)
[yt-t( )y ]
531.40
0.00
369690.2
601.38
2
251530.2
680.57
1
292470.5
770.19
0
209838.0
871.62
7
986.40
0.00
Total
1123529
00
6550
=531.4+(t-1)*91
t 1
531.41.13t1
yt
t'
t'*yt
t'
t lin
(yt-t lin)
2007
531.4
-5
-2657
25
894.18
131610.0
2
2008
1209.4
-3
-3628.2
973.18
55802.14
2009
1182.1
-1
-1182.1
1052.17
16881.93
2010
1311
1311
1131.16
32341.06
2011
1329.7
3989.1
1210.16
14290.27
2012
986.4
4932
25
1289.15
6550
2764.8
70
6550.00
91659.00
342584.4
1
Total
o funcia liniar:
Yt a bt '
=1091.67+39.49*t
Estimarea parametrilor a i b se face cu ajutorul M.C.M.M.P.
yt-t
lin
362.7
8
236.2
2
129.9
3
179.8
4
119.5
4
302.7
5
na b t y t
a t b t 2 ty
ty t
t2
unde:
t 0
yt
=1091.67
2764.8
=39.49
70
t 0
Exercitiul 4
Cea mai buna metoda in acest caz este cea analitica deoarece are cea mai mica
valoare reziduala.
Valori reziduale:
( yt t lin)< [ yt t ( ) ] <
342584.41< 1009508.74< 1123529.00
Exercitiul 5
Variatia reziduala
Valoarea reziduala
Variatia reziduala relativa
absoluta
-362.78
236.22
599.00
-165.11
129.93
-106.29
-45.00
179.84
49.91
38.41
119.54
-60.30
-33.53
-302.75
-422.29
-353.26
TOTAL
60.03
-558.49
Exercitiul 6
Prognoza prin metode simpe:
prin modificarii medii absolute:
pentru anul 2013: t=7 => y2007= 531.4+(7-1)*91=
1077.4
pentru anul 2014: t=8 => y2014=251.6+(8-1)*91= 1168.4
1116.30
pentru anul 2014: t=8 => y2014=
531.41.1381=
1263.30