MATHEMATICS UNIT PLANNER

Topic: Probability
(Chance)

Maths Focus: Theoretical &

Experimental Probability

Key Mathematical Understandings being constructed:

Students will understand experimental estimates converge to

theoretical probability in the long run

Students will show understanding of suitable representations

of probability, including fractions and ratios

Theoretical probability vs experimental probability

Key skills to develop & practice:

Year Level: 5/6

Term:

Students will develop the skill of predicting

Comparing and considering outcomes of future events

Develop the skill of working out the theoretical probability

Content strand(s): Statistics & Probability

Sub-strand(s): Chance
Proficiency strand(s): Understanding, Fluency, Problem Solving, Reasoning

Session 2 Three pairs of socks

different colours. Small paper bags (x1
per pair), tiles (x3 different colours)
Session 3 Worksheet (see appendix)
Session 5 four-quadrant spinners,
computers

strategies:Learning

Teaching strategies: Teaching through problem solving, Flexible

grouping of students, collaborative learning, problem-based
approach.
Analysing
Checking
Classifying
Co-operating
Considering options
Designing
Elaborating

MATHEMATICAL

Sharleen Kuemmeth
S00128818

Estimating
Explaining
Generalising
Hypothesising
Inferring
Interpreting
Justifying
TUNING IN

Listening
Locating information
Making choices
Note taking
Observing
Ordering events
Organising
INDEPENDENT

Date:

AusVELS Focus / Standard (taken directly from AusVELS documents):

Equipment/Resources required:
Session 1 Two pairs of socks, two
different colours (teacher
demonstration), Small paper bags (x1
per pair) tiles (x2 different colours)

Week:

Vocabulary to develop:

Probability
Likely
Unlikely
Even chance
Random
Prediction
Experiment
Theoretical probability
Occurrence
Trial
Sample space

Links to other contexts: Number and Algebra (Fractions and decimals),

Statistics and Probability (Data representation and interpretation).
Performing
Persuading
Planning
Predicting
Presenting
Providing feedback
Questioning

Reading
Recognising bias
Reflecting
Reporting
Responding
Restating
Revising

REFLECTION AND

Seeing patterns
Selecting information
Self-assessing
Sharing ideas
Summarising
Synthesising

ADAPTATIONS DURING LESSON

Testing
Viewing
Visually representing
Working independently
Working to a timetable

ASSESSMENT

OBJECTIVE
(what you want the children to
come to understand or
appreciate)

Session 1
(Learning Focus)
Students will be able
to determine all
possible outcomes in a
probability experiment
by using systematic
lists and area models.
They will select
appropriate methods of
recording results.

Session 2
Students will be able

Sharleen Kuemmeth
S00128818

(explore what students know

using a context /dilemma, posing
a problem, an open-ended
question, or game.)

LEARNING
(extended opportunity for
students to work in pairs, small
groups or individually. Time for
teacher to rove, listen, probe and
challenge childrens thinking.)

MAKING CONNECTIONS
(focused planned time for students to reflect
on learning by explaining, showing,
justifying their thinking; teacher questions
gather evidence for general finding, assists
children to make link/s, raises possibilities
for further thinking /investigation)

- Enabling prompt
(to allow those experiencing difficulty to
engage in active experiences related to
the initial goal task)
- Extending prompt
(questions that extend students thinking
on the initial task)

STRATEGIES
(should relate to objective.
Includes what the teacher will
listen for, observe, note or analyse)

Place two pairs of

socks in paper bag
individually (two
different colours).
Q. If I was to pull
out two socks
together, what is the
probability of those
socks matching?
Explore ideas with
students.
Q. Is it more likely
that the socks will
match? Or is there an
even chance that the
socks will either
match or not match?
Ask students to predict
the outcome. Ask
students the reasons for
reason of their
prediction.
Pull out two socks
from bag. Record result
and repeat 4 times.
Discuss that a large
number of trials will
give us a more likely
result.
Recap what was learnt
in previous session
importance of large

Students working in
pairs. Each pair will
need a paper bag with
four tiles representing
the socks. Students
need to pull out two
tiles together and
record their results of
each trial.
Brainstorm with
students how they may
record their results, but
they may choose what
best suits them. Each
pair will repeat the trial
30 times.
Q. Were your
predictions correct?
Why? Why not?
Think-pair-share with
another pair. Ask
groups to share their
results, record findings
on whiteboard as class
outcomes (see
appendix).

Discuss class findings and

why this may have occurred
(more mis-matched than
matched results.)
Q. How can we represent
all possible outcomes?
Label socks 1-4 and record all
possible outcomes on the
board (see appendix).
Q. How can we pose the
probability as a fraction?

Adaption Give suggestions

to students with difficultly
on how to record results.

Appropriate tool for

recording data that
shows understanding of
trials in experiments
(table, bar graph, etc.)

Extensions Q. How can

you represent the
probability of the
experiment using a
spinner?

Reflect with class the different

ways they recorded their data.

Word count: 312

Students will repeat
session 1 in pairs, this
time using six tiles,

Discuss class findings for

experiment 1.
Q. How has the fraction of

Adaption pair students

with mixed abilities.
Students with lower abilities

Students have recorded

appropriate fraction to
represent the probability

to represent the
probability of an
outcome using a
common fraction.

Session 3
Students will be able
to develop a strategy
for winning a
probability game
through a number of
experimental trials.

Sharleen Kuemmeth
S00128818

number of trials, tools

used to represent
probabilities,
representing
probability of an
outcome using a
common fraction.
Q. I have three pairs
of socks in this bag.
What is the likelihood
of pulling out two
socks that are
matching?

three different colours.

Students will work out
all theoretical
possibilities before
experimenting.
Students begin trial.
Think-pair-share with
another group about
the results recorded.

Begin lesson with

warm up activity dice
race (see appendix).
Q. Did all players
have an equal chance
of winning? Why?
Ask students if they
know any other games
that incorporate
probability.
Ask who is familiar
with Rock-PaperScissors
Q. Is there a strategy

(There are nine total

outcomes of RockPaper-Scissors which
will be discussed in
next session).
Students are to work in
pairs, but will come up
with a theory for
winning individually.
Students will record
their winning strategy
without sharing.
Students are to
individually record

Q. Are the results as

you predicted? How
can it link more to the
theoretical
probability of the
experiment?
Pose class another
experiment with 4
purple socks, 2 blue
and 2 red.
Predict. Q. What is
the likelihood of
choosing a pair of
matching socks?

probability changed for two

pairs of socks compared to
three pairs of socks?
Describe the likelihood of
choosing a matching pair of
socks using a common
fraction.
Discuss class findings for
experiment 2.
Ask students to share with the
class their recordings and
models used to represent the
probability of choosing a
matching pair of socks.

may only require to work on

experiment 1.

Discuss class findings. Have

students justify why their
winning strategy worked or
did not work.
Further develop students
understanding of probability,
allowing students to ask each
other questions about their
theory.

Adaption Students that

find it difficult to come up
with a theory can write a
simple sentence about what
they notice. Prompt ideas
from students.

of the outcome on their

worksheet.

Extension Ask students to

represent their findings
using different models.

Word count: 257

Observe how students
chart and display their
results, discussing how
their strategy links with
their results.

Extension Some students

may argue that there is no
strategy (which is true), do
not dispute their ideas,
prompt them for further
thinking.

for winning rockpaper-scissors?

Brainstorm ideas
whether there is a
strategy or not, or if
every player has an
equal chance of
winning.

Session 4
Students will be able
to develop their
understanding of
theoretical probability
by determining all
possible outcomes of
an experiment game.

Sharleen Kuemmeth
S00128818

Lesson continuing on
from session 3.
Recap on some
students winning
strategies for rockpaper-scissors.
Q. Is there a way to
work out all the
possibilities of
winning this game?
Q. What is the
probability of
winning, compared to
tying or losing?
See if students can
discuss ways they may
work out all
probabilities and record
the information.

their results however

they find suitable. 30
trials total.
After experiment,
students think-pairshare their winning
theory.
Brainstorm with
students their theory
and if they would make
an adaption.
Allow students to adapt
their theory. Pairs trial
30 more to compare
theories.
Formally introduce
theoretical probability
(determined by
working out all
possible outcomes of
probability). Students
will be identifying all
outcomes in rockpaper-scissors.
Students will record
this information
however they want in a
appropriate way.
Q. Is the outcome of
Rock-Paper, PaperRock the same
outcome? Why not?
Develop awareness that
outcomes with the
same object are two
separate outcomes.
Students are required

Word count: 265

Discuss with students different
ways to work out and record
the theoretical probability of
all possible outcomes.
Have students share their
work with the rest of the class,
explaining their thoughts and
why they chose that particular
visual representation.
Q. How does working out
the theoretical probability of
an outcome help you?

Adaption Students that

need help, encourage them
to try representing the
sample space using a tree
diagram or table.
Extension Add in another
element to rock-paperscissors.
How does the probability
change to the game?

Students will
individually record all
possible outcomes of
rock-paper-scissors and
be able to explain their
thinking, and why they
recorded in the way they
did.
Students will use
probability vocabulary
(see vocabulary to
develop page 1).

Q. Will the theoretical

probability always link to an
experiments results? Why
not?

to answer the following

questions on their
sheet:
Session 5
Students will be able
to compare theoretical
probability with
experimental
probability using
physical objects and
virtual manipulatives.

Warm up activity
card game (see
appendix)
Q. Is there a strategy
to winning this game?
Explain what you
think.
Discuss with students
that they will be
comparing theoretical
probability with
experimental
probability.
Recap what students
understand about
theoretical probability
and experimental
probability.
Q. How might we
compare theoretical
and experimental
probability?
Students will be
working with spinners,
physically and
virtually.

Students are working

in pairs. Half the class
will use physical
spinners, half will use
the computers and use
a virtual spinner.
Before beginning the
experiment, students
need to work out the
theoretical probability
and represent it as a
fraction, percent or
ratio (25% 1:3 or
1:4)
Students need to record
the results in an
appropriate way.
Students will answer
the questions provided
(see appendix) as they
work through the
number of trials.

Q. Did your theoretical

predictions align with your
experimental results? Why?
Why not?
Ask students to explain what
they enjoyed about the spinner
or the computer.
Ask students what the benefits
and implications were of using
the computer or the spinners.
Get students to share results
with the rest of the class.
Display results on the board as
a class.
Compare large sample space
with theoretical probability of
the experiment.

Adaption Pair students

with mixed abilities so
students have the
opportunity to learn off each
other.
Extension Using the
virtual spinner, predict the
theoretical probability of a
spinner with 5, 8 12, 14
parts. Test your predictions.

Word count: 285

Students will verbally
demonstrate
understanding of the
theoretical probability
of a four-quadrant
spinner. They will
express the theoretical
probability as a fraction.
Students will show
understanding that the
more trials, the closer
the experiment links to
the theoretical
prediction.

Word count: 300

Total word count: 1,419

Sharleen Kuemmeth
S00128818