Addition Rule of Probability

Objective: Students will discover that in order to find the probability that more than one disjoint event
will occur, they can add the probabilities of each event together.
Lesson Plan Outline:
Experiment [15 min] For the experiment, the students will be put into groups of four students and
will be assigned one of the questions on the worksheet about two events: 3, 6, 7, or 9. Groups will be
given a handout that includes their assigned question and a chart to record their data. Students will be
instructed to roll a die several times and record their findings in an attempt to identify the probability
that the rolls trend to.
Teacher:
You are to focus on the big picture. Look for a trend that is occurring. Keep rolling the dice,
until you are able to make a guess about what the probability for your question is.
Reflecting and Explaining/Hypothesizing and Articulating [5 min for reflecting and explaining][10 min for hypothesizing and developing their presentation] Instruct the students to stop rolling the
dice and as a group to begin reflecting on their findings. Have the groups develop a mathematical hypothesis for the question they observed and prepare a presentation for the class, which will require them to put
their hypothesis on the board.
Teacher:
Your task now is to use the previous experiment of rolling dice to generalize what you observed
in the experiment in order to make a guess at what the derived probability is and compare
this to the experimentally observed probability. When doing this think about what it means
to become a whiter shade of pale.
[15 min] The groups will then present in the order that the questions appear on the worksheet, i.e., the
group with question 3 will present first. They will then critique one anothers work. Some groups may not
have rolled the dice enough times to develop an accurate representation. Use this to discuss the notion of
what over the long term means. Minimize transition by having the presentations set to a timer, giving
the new group 45 seconds to be set up and ready.
Once the presentations have been given, the teacher will lead the class to inductively identify the addition rule (if the class did not already discover it). Alluding to the probability of each simple event, the
teacher will ask the class how they can use that information to explain the probability that one or the
other occur. Students will remain in their groups and be given Worksheet 1 to complete. The teacher will
call on a student to read the directions. Then, the teacher will call on another student to remind the class
what a fair die means.
All of the questions can be answered from a students knowledge of sample space and probability of an
event. By asking questions 1 and 2 before question 3, students may see that by adding the probability of
each event, they can get the probability that one or the other occurs. Similar reasoning explains questions
1, 5, and 7. Question 6 and 9 serve as examples that foreshadow the addition rule when events are not
1

mutually exclusive. For this lesson, students can see that the subsets of the sample space for each event
will contain a common element and should not double count it. This will later be identified as subtracting
the probability that both events occur simultaneously. Question 10 reminds students that if the event is
not contained in the sample space, then the probability that it will occur is zero.
After 15 minutes, the class will re-group and discuss Worksheet 1. Use the following questions to begin
a dialogue:
1
1
1. In problem 4, the probability is , in problem 1, the probability is , why is the probability in
2
6
2
problem 7, ? Does the sample space shrink? No, then what is happening?
3
2. In that last example, and in the addition rule we discovered, I noticed we add the values, why add
them? What would multiplying them tell us, what would clue us in that we did something wrong if
we did that?
3. Lets brainstorm four other probability experiments that could use the addition rule. For now lets
stick with dice.
Verifying and Refining The class will verify the additive relationship they discovered on a couple
of the four probability experiments they brainstormed. As an assessment check, students will individually work on Worksheet 2. The teacher will walk around the room to monitor the students individual
understanding of the relationship.

What is the chance of rolling a one or a three?

Mark the right column with a tally each time you roll the dice.
If you roll a one or a three, mark the left column also.

1 or 3

Total Number of Rolls

What is the chance of rolling an odd number or a one?

Mark the right column with a tally each time you roll the dice.
If you roll an odd number or a one, mark the left column also.

Odd number or 1

Total Number of Rolls

What is the chance of rolling an even number or a one?

Mark the right column with a tally each time you roll the dice.
If you roll an even number or a one, mark the left column also.

Even number or 1

Total Number of Rolls

What is the chance of rolling an odd number or a number

evenly divisible by three?
Mark the right column with a tally each time you roll the dice.
If you roll an odd number or a number evenly divisible by three, mark the left column also.

Odd number or number evenly divisible by three Total Number of Rolls

Worksheet 1 Suppose you have a fair six-sided die. Answer the following questions and use a subset of
the sample space {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} to justify your answers.
1. What is the chance of rolling a one?

2. What is the chance of rolling a three?

3. What is the chance of rolling a one or a three?

4. What is the chance of rolling an odd number?

5. What is the chance of rolling an even number?

6. What is the chance of rolling an odd number or a one?

7. What is the chance of rolling an even number or a one?

8. What is the chance of rolling a number evenly divisible by three?

9. What is the chance of rolling an odd number or a number evenly divisible by three?

10. What is the chance of rolling a bookshelf?

Worksheet 2 Now consider a die which is not fair. Suppose that 2 and 3 are each three times more
likely to be rolled. This gives the following probabilities:
Number Probability
1

1
10

3
10

3
10

1
10

1
10

1
10

Answer questions 1 through 9 below using these new probabilities.

1. What is the chance of rolling a one?
2. What is the chance of rolling a three?
3. What is the chance of rolling a one or a three?
4. What is the chance of rolling an odd number?
5. What is the chance of rolling an even number?
6. What is the chance of rolling an odd number or a one?
7. What is the chance of rolling an even number or a one?
8. What is the chance of rolling a number evenly divisible by three?
9. What is the chance of rolling an odd number or a number evenly divisible by three?

Mini-Experiment 10 pts
In class we discovered the additive property of probabilistic events. Write at least one paragraph explaining when you and your group discovered this relationship. Include the specific probabilistic events
that you were thinking about at the time of your discovery, as well as the math that supports the relationship.

Give an example of a probabilistic experiment and question that uses the addition rule. Justify your
answer.

Rubric:
The written response will be graded with the following five criteria:
A. The response explains an understanding of the additive relationship.
B. The first response includes the probabilistic events that led to the discovery.
C. The second response includes a probabilistic experiment and question that uses the addition rule.
D. The response includes mathematical justification.
E. The response contains nothing erroneous or extraneous.

Points are awarded for each of the five criteria as follows:

+ 2 criterion clearly met
+ 1 unclear if criterion clearly met
+ 0 criterion clearly not met

Mini-Experiment: Example of student work 10 pts

In class we discovered the additive property of probabilistic events. Write at least one paragraph explaining when you and your group discovered this relationship. Include the specific probabilistic events
that you were thinking about at the time of your discovery, as well as the math that supports the relationship.
We discovered the relationship when we answered the questions about rolling a one, a three, and then
2
1
for the first two questions and then
for the
a one or a three. We saw that the probabilities were
6
6
1
1
2
probability that had them both. If you add and , then you get . This also worked for other questions
6
6
6
like the probability of rolling an even number or a one.

Give an example of a probabilistic experiment and question that uses the addition rule.
What is the probability that you or your friend win the lottery? In this lottery there is only one winner.

Justify your answer.

1
1
, then the probability that you win the lottery is
,
Say the probability of winning the lottery is
1000
1000
but so is the probability that your friend wins. So the probability that either of you will win is
1
2
1
1
+
=
or
.
1000
1000
1000
500
Just as the addition rule states that it will be, since there is only one winner, you both cant win.

10