Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
May 6, 2015
Justin Hess
Summary Data
Stock Price
Shares Outstanding (m)
Market Cap
$
$
NCI
TRA Liability
Cash
Total Debt
Enterprise Value
52 Week Range
Dividend Yield
Average 3M dly Vol (m)
Shares Sold Short
Float
2014 EV/EBITDA
25.40
61.8
1,570
213
1,500
(224)
1,126
4,634
$24.50 - 27.27
0%
0.79
0.9
32%
~55x
2014 PF
2013
12,709
11,584
$ 1,387.26 $ 1,130.85
$
85.78 $
8.64
$
(0.86) $
(1.58)
Entrenched owners have a history of destroying shareholder value and will not
act in the best interest of the common equity holder moving forward
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
75% Retention
70% Retention
4
85% Retention
2010
2,300
2011
2,228
$75
$167,100
2012
2,158
$88
$189,365
2013
2,090
$103
$214,575
2014
2,024 88% retention rate
$121 17% CAGR
$244,904
5,925
7,167
8,078
9,494
10,685
$97
$89
$97
$107 Calculated
$ 695,878 $ 721,539 $ 916,270 $ 1,142,358
Total Revenue
Total Customers
Godaddy repeatedly
acknowledged it was their fault
but refused to refund
So many other option, please
think twice before choosing
GoDaddy
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,700,000
1,650,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
1,000,000
800,000
1,550,000
600,000
1,500,000
400,000
1,450,000
200,000
0
1,400,000
2012
2013
Total Debt
($ 000)
Total Debt
EBITDA
Total Debt/EBITDA
$
$
2014
2012
989,334 $
(63,884) $
-15.5x
2013
1,085,454 $
8,642 $
125.6x
2014
Pro Forma 2014
1,418,922 $
1,126,364
85,783 $
85,783
16.5x
13.1x
4.7x
Goodwill ($ 000)
Investors in the offering retain ~40% of economic control, but consolidate the company and
show ~60% of non-controlling interest
KKR, Silver Lake, TCV and Mr. Parsons effectively control the company
o As a controlled company the firm doesnt need to vote on its board and doesnt need to
follow same disclosure processes
o Control 83.4% of the combined voting power of our outstanding common stock
10
Management fee of $2MM to KKR, Silver Lake, and TCV and $1MM to Mr. Parsons in 2011,
2012, 2013 and 2014
Mr. Parsons had a $500K expense budget starting 2011
$300MM loan from Mr. Parsons entity to company 5 months after PE deal announced
Company took on additional floating rate debt in May 2014, to pay out a $349MM distribution
to PE owners and Mr. Parsons
~$315MM pay down on note written by the entity solely controlled by Mr. Parsons
$26MM management termination fee for KKR, Silver Lake, and TCV
$3MM management termination to Mr. Parsons
~$34MM to the bankers involved with the IPO
Remaining ~$82MM for general business purposes according to the prospectus
11
Tax savings of 15% granted to the organization in the Up-C structure. The other 85% of
theoretical taxes paid to continuing investors. 2 clauses in the IPO report should worry
investors:
(1) If we materially breach a material obligation under the agreements or if we
elect to terminate the agreements early, we would be required to make an
immediate lump sum payment equal to the present value of the anticipated
future tax savings, which payment may be made significantly in advance of the
actual realization of such future tax savings
(2) If we were permitted to elect to terminate the TRAs immediately after this
offering, based on the initial public offering price of $20.00 per share of our Class
A common stock and a discount rate equal to one year LIBOR plus 100 basis
points, we estimate that we would be required to pay $1.5 billion in the
aggregate under the TRAs
Who needs a golden parachute when you have a golden ejectorseat button?
12
Enterprise Value
Less: NCI
Less: TRA Liability
Plus: Cash
Less: Debt
Equity Value
Shares Outstanding
Price per Share
2014
180,568
(67,900)
(40,700)
71,968
56,315
(19,147)
109,136
3,418,505
(213,066)
(1,500,000)
224,303
(1,126,364)
803,378
61,826
$12.99
2015e
347,579
(80,606)
(35,000)
231,973
52,540
(17,863)
266,649
2016e
302,188
(89,693)
(35,000)
177,495
41,893
(14,244)
205,145
2017e
271,847
(97,441)
(30,000)
144,406
33,524
(11,398)
166,532
2018e
396,310
(109,959)
(30,000)
256,351
23,104
(7,855)
271,600
2019e
402,872
(121,456)
(25,000)
256,416
9,772
(3,323)
262,866
2020e
439,626
(139,904)
(25,000)
274,722
1,553
(528)
275,747
13
2013
$
8,642
2014
$ 85,783
2015e
$ 98,339
2016e
$ 109,425
25.0x
29.0x
34.0x
$3.83
24.5x
28.5x
33.5x
$8.14
61,826
61,826
Valuation Estimates
Bear
Base
Bull
EBITDA 2018 estimate ($mm)129.7
$
$
129.7 $
129.7
TEV/EBITDA
23.5x
27.5x
32.5x
Value per share
$0.0
$15.4
$25.9
APV estimate (9.2% wacc & 2% tg)
Value per share
$4
$13
$32
Average valuation
$2
$14
$29
(92%)
(45%)
Downside / Upside
11%
2017e
$ 118,878
2018e
$ 129,751
24.0x
28.0x
33.0x
$11.54
23.5x
27.5x
32.5x
$15.41
61,826
61,826
2019e
$ 143,318
61,826
22.5x
26.5x
31.5x
61,826
14
23.0x
27.0x
32.0x
2020e
$ 159,043
15
APPENDIX
Overview of GoDaddy
17
Weaknesses
Threats
Opportunities
Domain Registration
Technological Change
IP
Internet traffic
Customer service
ICANN
18
Accessibility to internet
19
20
Key Details
The Up-C structure derives its
name from the UPREIT
structure
A newly formed corporation
undertakes the IPO and sits
above the existing limited
liability company (the LLC)
The newly formed corporation
purchases the LLC interests
and receive a TRA payment
2015e
347,579
(80,606)
(35,000)
231,973
52,540
(17,863)
266,649
2016e
302,188
(89,693)
(35,000)
177,495
41,893
(14,244)
205,145
2017e
271,847
(97,441)
(30,000)
144,406
33,524
(11,398)
166,532
2018e
396,310
(109,959)
(30,000)
256,351
23,104
(7,855)
271,600
2019e
402,872
(121,456)
(25,000)
256,416
9,772
(3,323)
262,866
2020e
439,626
(139,904)
(25,000)
274,722
1,553
(528)
275,747
3,890,860
Period Discount
Free Cash Flows
PV Free Cash Flows
1.00
266,649
244,120
2.00
205,145
171,944
3.00
166,532
127,787
4.00
271,600
190,801
5.00
262,866
169,063
6.00
4,166,607
2,453,352
17,863
14,244
11,398
7,855
3,323
528
16,828
1.00
17,863
16,980
2.00
14,244
12,870
3.00
11,398
9,790
4.00
7,855
6,414
5.00
3,323
2,579
6.00
17,356
12,804
Tax Rate
Growth Rate
Unlev. Cost of Capital
Period Discount
Interest Tax Shield
PV Interest Tax Shield
2014
180,568
(67,900)
(40,700)
71,968
56,315
(19,147)
109,136
34.0%
2.0%
9.2%
2.0%
5.2%
21
Beta Eq.
Beta Debt
1.91
0.20
0.00
0.20
1.95
0.20
0.75
0.20
0.21
0.20
1.73
0.20
1.16
0.20
0.20
1.0
0.2
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Industry Beta Unlevered
Unlevered Cost of Capital
Cost of Debt
Debt
1,086.9
1,662.6
507.3
0.0
346.9
0.0
25.1
1,126.4
594.4
Equity
2,538.9
9,228.7
1,093.7
789.6
2,751.1
2,238.9
7,657.3
3,952
3,781.3
2.00%
7.00%
1.03
9.2%
5.2%
22
Tax Rate
Beta Unlev
35.0%
1.54
35.0%
0.02
35.0%
1.54
35.0%
NM
35.0%
0.21
35.0%
1.73
35.0%
1.16
34.0%
NM
35%
1.03
Comments
Estimated tax rate
Estimated tax rate
Estimated tax rate
Estimated tax rate
Estimated tax rate
Estimated tax rate
Estimated tax rate
Tax rate from IPO prospectus
Other data from FactSet
Price (May
1)
S/O
25.96
Endurance Intl Gp
United Internet
Web.com
Wix.com
Cimpress
Demandware
Rackspace Hosting
Average
Avg. Exclud. Demandware
Mkt Value Weighted
Market
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA
Value
EBITDA
Total Debt 1 yr Beta
FY1
Actual
FY1
61.8
3,952.4
90.9
1,126.4
-0.58
2.85x
57.54x
14.38x
19.18
45.02
21.06
20.43
84.38
61.23
53.75
132.4
205.0
51.9
38.7
32.6
36.6
142.5
2,538.9
9,228.7
1,093.7
789.6
2,751.1
2,238.9
7,657.3
149.3
711.3
114.6
-52.8 -196.4
-19.8 -535.4
41.38
38.54
87.7
95.0
3,781.3
4,001.7
215.7
249.3
23
1,086.9
1,662.6 -507.3
346.9
25.1
792.5
792.5
1.91
1.95
0.75
0.21 -1.73
1.16
1.02
0.90
4.38x
2.45x
2.71x
3.23x --
24.32x
15.41x
13.77x
11.73x
11.65x
9.87x
92.07x
14.20x
231.24x
10.76x
4.04x
3.22x
3.27x
23.52x
23.52x
19.80x
54.53x
25.07x
29.01x
Terminal Growth
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
2.75%
3.00%
$13.1
$13.1
$13.1
$13.2
$13.2
$13.3
$13.4
$13.5
$13.8
$14.3
$13.0
$13.0
$13.1
$13.1
$13.1
$13.2
$13.2
$13.3
$13.4
$13.5
0%
0.25%
0.50%
0%
0.75%
0.25%
1.00%
0.50%
1.25%
0.75%
1.50%
1.00%
1.25%
1.75%
1.50%
2.00%
1.75%
2.25%
2.00%
2.50%
2.25%
2.75%
2.50%
3.00%
7.5%
$15.4
$16.8
25.0%
$18.4
$4.3
$20.0
$5.2
$21.8
$6.1
$23.7
$7.1
$25.8
$8.1
$9.2
$28.0
$10.4
$30.5
$11.6
$33.2
$12.9
$36.1
$14.4
$39.4
$15.9
$43.0
8.0%
$11.7
$13.0
28.0%
$14.3
$4.4
$15.7
$5.2
$17.2
$6.1
$18.8
$7.1
$20.5
$8.1
$9.2
$22.4
$10.4
$24.4
$11.6
$26.6
$13.0
$29.0
$14.4
$31.6
$15.9
$34.5
Sensitivities
Terminal Growth
Terminal Growth
2.75%
3.00%
Non Controlling
Interest
Terminal Growth
($110,000)
0%
($125,000)
0.25%
($140,000)
0.50%
($155,000)
0.75%
($170,000)
1.00%
($185,000)
1.25%
($200,000)
1.50%
($215,000)
1.75%
($230,000)
2.00%
($245,000)
2.25%
($260,000)
2.50%
($275,000)
($290,000)
2.75%
$17.5
$19.3
$17.6
$19.3
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.1
$13.1
$13.1
$13.2
$13.3
$12.9
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.1
$13.1
$13.1
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$17.6
$19.4
$17.6
$19.4
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
10.0%
$0.7
$1.4
40.0%
$2.2
$4.4
$3.0
$5.3
$3.8
$6.2
$4.7
$7.2
$5.6
$8.2
$9.3
$6.6
$10.5
$7.6
$11.7
$8.8
$13.0
$9.9
$14.4
$11.2
$16.0
$12.6
10.5%
($1.4)
($0.7)
43.0%
($0.1)
$4.5
$0.6
$5.3
$1.3
$6.2
$2.1
$7.2
$2.9
$8.2
$9.3
$3.8
$10.5
$4.7
$11.7
$5.7
$13.0
$6.7
$14.5
$7.8
$16.0
$8.9
$17.6
$19.4
$17.6
$19.4
Discount
Rate
- Cost
of Debt
Terminal
TRA
Liability
3.5% ($1,300,000)
4.0% ($1,400,000)
4.5% ($1,500,000)
5.0% ($1,600,000)
5.5% ($1,700,000)
6.0% ($1,800,000)
6.5% ($1,900,000)
($1,200,000)
$19.5
$17.9
$16.3
$14.7
$13.0
$11.4
$9.8
$8.2
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$19.3
$17.7
$16.0
$14.4
$12.8
$11.2
$9.6
$7.9
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$19.0
$17.4
$15.8
$14.2
$12.6
$10.9
$9.3
$7.7
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$18.8
$17.2
$15.6
$13.9
$12.3
$10.7
$9.1
$7.5
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$18.5
$16.9
$15.3
$13.7
$12.1
$10.5
$8.8
$7.2
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$18.3
$16.7
$15.1
$13.4
$11.8
$10.2
$8.6
$7.0
$13.1
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$18.1
$16.4
$14.8
$13.2
$11.6
$10.0
$8.4
$6.7
$13.2
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$12.9
$17.8
$16.2
$14.6
$13.0
$11.3
$9.7
$8.1
$6.5
$13.2
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$17.6
$16.0
$14.3
$12.7
$11.1
$9.5
$7.9
$6.3
$13.3
$13.2
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$17.3
$15.7
$14.1
$12.5
$10.9
$9.2
$7.6
$6.0
$13.4
$13.2
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$12.9
$17.1
$15.5
$13.9
$12.2
$10.6
$9.0
$7.4
$5.8
$13.5
$13.3
$13.1
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
$16.8
$15.2
$13.6
$12.0
$10.4
$8.8
$7.1
$5.5
$16.6
$15.0
$13.4
$11.7
$10.1
$8.5
$6.9
$5.3
$13.8
$13.4
$13.2
$13.1
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
3.00%
$14.3
$13.5
$13.3
0%
0.25%
25.0%
$4.3
$5.2
28.0%
$4.4
$5.2
31.0%
$4.4
24
$5.2
$13.1
Tax Rate
34.0%
$4.4
$5.3
$13.0
$13.0
$12.9
37.0%
$4.4
$5.3
40.0%
$4.4
$5.3
43.0%
$4.5
$5.3
25
910,903
1,130,845
1,387,262
430,299
175,406
130,123
132,582
106,377
138,620
473,868
207,941
145,482
150,932
143,980
140,567
518,382
254,440
164,671
190,503
168,383
152,759
1,113,407
1,262,770
1,449,138
Operating loss
(202,504 )
(79,092 )
Interest expense
Other income (expense), net
(131,925 )
(70,978 )
2,326
(61,876 )
(84,997 )
1,877
744
(201,026 )
(146,129 )
1,142
2,824
Net loss
$
(279,052 )
(199,884 )
(143,305 )
(2.21 )
(1.58 )
(1.11 )
126,663
128,567
Pro forma basic and diluted net loss per share (unaudited) (1)
$
26(2)
Pro forma weighted-average common shares outstanding (unaudited)
(0.85 )
54,557
2012
Operating activities
Net loss
Adjustments to reconcile net loss to net cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization
Equity-based compensation
Accretion of original issue discount
Amortization of deferred financing costs
Other
Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net of amounts acquired:
Accounts receivable
Registry deposits
Prepaid domain name registry fees
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
Other assets
Deferred taxes
Accounts payable
Accrued expenses
Deferred revenue
Other long-term liabilities
(279,052 )
(199,884 )
2014
$
(143,305 )
138,620
11,680
6,977
1,298
(574 )
140,567
16,448
7,934
1,362
(112 )
152,759
30,185
7,789
1,269
1,271
478
2,396
(36,746 )
796
3,522
(597 )
2,401
1,586
252,448
877
(2,388 )
230
(29,228 )
(11,684 )
1,470
(3,501 )
1,932
60,582
169,145
440
1,756
(2,656 )
(21,565 )
6,950
(6,616 )
(6,818 )
8,545
(22,334 )
166,357
6,981
106,110
153,313
180,568
Investing activities
Purchases of short-term investments
Maturities of short-term investments
Business acquisitions, net of cash acquired
Purchases of property and equipment, excluding improvements
Purchases of leasehold and building improvements
Other
(17,657 )
20,140
(17,679 )
(41,959 )
(2,271 )
61
(12,762 )
12,744
(156,759 )
(42,699 )
(9,390 )
400
(9,003 )
9,192
(40,739 )
(51,859 )
(16,042 )
1,132
(59,365 )
(208,466 )
(107,319 )
Financing activities
Capital contributions from members
Distributions paid to unit and option holders
Unit repurchases
Proceeds from exercises of options and warrants
Proceeds from term loan
Proceeds from revolving credit loan
Repayment of term loan
Payment of financing-related costs
Repayment of other financing obligations
Payment of deferred offering costs
(18,391 )
14
(7,500 )
(9,000 )
(210 )
2,750
(356 )
880
100,000
(7,750 )
(4,065 )
(339 )
(348,965 )
(1,635 )
3,989
263,750
75,000
(7,625 )
(8,396 )
(4,118 )
(1,711 )
(35,087 )
91,120
(29,711 )
11,658
47,805
35,967
59,463
43,538
95,430
27
59,463
95,430
138,968
Balance Sheet
As of December 31, 2014
Pro Forma
Actual
As Adjusted (1)
(unaudited, in thousands,
except per share data)
28
138,968
425,651
220,905
3,264,805
1,252,512
1,418,922
2,854,414
410,391
221,300
425,651
220,905
3,340,096
1,252,512
1,126,364
2,723,717
616,379
20,140
(17,679 )
(41,959 )
(2,271 )
61
12,744
(156,759 )
(42,699 )
(9,390 )
400
9,192
(40,739 )
(51,859 )
(16,042 )
1,132
(59,365 )
(208,466 )
(107,319 )
Financing activities
Capital contributions from members
Distributions paid to unit and option holders
Unit repurchases
Proceeds from exercises of options and warrants
Proceeds from term loan
Proceeds from revolving credit loan
Repayment of term loan
Payment of financing-related costs
Repayment of other financing obligations
Payment of deferred offering costs
Total bookings
Net
cash provided
by (used
in) financing
Total
customers
at period
endactivities
Net
increase inrevenue
cash and cash
Average
per equivalents
user (ARPU)
Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of period
$
$
Adjusted EBITDA
2,750
(348,965 )
(18,391 )
(356 )
(1,635 )
14
880
3,989
100,000
263,750
75,000
(7,500Ended
)
(7,75031,
)
(7,625 )
Year
December
(9,000
)
(4,065
)
(8,396
2012
2013
2014)
(210 )
(339 )
(4,118 )
(unaudited; in thousands, except ARPU)
(1,711 )
1,249,565
10,236
93
173,875
(35,087 )
11,658$
47,805
1,397,936
91,120
11,584
35,967
104
59,463
196,323
1,675,198
(29,71112,709
)
$
$
114
271,497
43,538
95,430
59,463
95,430
138,968
$
$
71,185
63
$
$
61,775
2,546
$
$
75,353
2,290
$
$
$
$
3,090
29
$
$
$
$
8,337
1,256
5,267
$
$
$
$
2,300
5,802
373
18,085
29
Share Price
30
31
Management background
Blake Irving
Bob Parsons
Current CEO
Former MBA professors
Exec at Yahoo, Microsoft
Scott W. Wagner
Current CFO
Previously served as our
Interim CEO and from KKR
capstone
B.A. degree in Economics,
magna cum laude from Yale
University and an M.B.A.
degree from HBS
32