Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Ion Stancu
Profesor universitar doctor
Key words: opportunity cost of capital; expected rate of return; unlevered firm; income stocks; leverage;
tax shields; weighted average cost of capital; growth stocks, sustenable growth rate.
n
19
Abstract. In this article, the author has assumed himself an assignment somehow ostentatious but
useful, we believe, naming the one to illustrate by means of figures, the influence of both leverage and
economic growth over the cost of capital, cost which will be used in capital budgeting. This synthesis is
meant to be a forthcoming approach to a later investigation of the problems raised by the estimation of
the cost of capital in the specific conditions of both the financial market in Romania and the quality of
the economic-financial information, information available for this estimation.
The discount rate for an investment project (kinv) with a risk equal to the risk undertaken by the
enterprise and financed within the firms capital structure itself (having the same leverage) is equal to the
(weighted average) cost of capital in the respective risk class (k). Under these circumstances, it is interesting to find out this opportunity cost of capital invested in a medium-sized enterprise:
a) with investments in rebuilding the productive capacity, all equity financed;
b) with investments in rebuilding the productive capacity, financed both by equity and debt;
c) with new investments, all equity financed;
d) with new investments, financed both by equity and debt.
Under these conditions, we estimate the effect of both the leverage and economic growth over the cost
of capital (kec and kc) to be able to determine in the end the discount rate of the analyzed investment (kinv):
n for enterprises with only maintaining investments (g = 0), unlevered (U) and levered (L);
n for enterprises with growing investments (g > 0), unlevered (U) and levered (L).
DAT
CPR
+ k d (1 )
CPR + DAT
CPR + DAT
20
V0
unde:
V0L = V0U + DAT
Div 1
+g
P0
unde:
Div1 = dividendul la sfritul anului curent;
P0 = valoarea de pia a aciunilor firmei;
g = rata anual, constant i perpetu de cretere a
dividendului i
k c = R f + (E M R f ) i
unde:
Rf = rata dobnzii fr risc;
EM = sperana de rentabilitate a pieei de capital;
i = coeficient de volatilitate a rentabilitii aciunilor
firmei n raport cu rentabilitatea pieei de capital.
Ambele modele implic un corp de ipoteze destul de
simplificatoare pentru realitatea economic: pia
perfect, absena fiscalitii ( = 0), evoluie constant i
perpetu etc. Sub aceste ipoteze, costul capitalului are
determinri specifice pentru rata de cretere g = 0
(Income Stocks) i pentru rata de cretere g = ROE b > 0
(Growth Stocks), n care ROE = rentabilitatea capitalurilor
proprii (la valoarea lor contabil) i b = coeficient de
reinere din profitul net pentru finanarea investiiilor noi
(a oportunitilor de cretere).
n acest fel, ntreprinderi cu oportuniti de cretere
(g > 0), cu acelai cost al capitalurilor ca i ntreprinderile
U; g > 0
V0
ROE
1
PN b
PN
kc
=
+
=
kc
kc g
= V0U;g = 0 + V0Op.Cretere
Div 1
PN 1
+g =
P0
P0
n care:
Div1 = PN1 = dividendul egal cu profitul net din anul curent;
P0 este preul de cumprare (n Burs) al aciunilor
ntreprinderii de tip Income Stocks.
Exemplu: O astfel de ntreprindere cu Income Stocks
are iniial o valoare V0 = 102.000, egal cu valoarea
contabil (AE0), i distribuie anual i constant ntregul
profit net sub form de Div1 = 15.300. Aceasta va avea un
cost al capitalurilor ei proprii kc = 15%:
kc =
15.300
102.000
+ 0 = 0,15;
PER =
102.000
15.300
= 6, (6)
21
(AE)
68000
Capitaluri proprii
34000
102000
102000
TOTAL
102000
168800
kU
126600
V0U = 102000
unde:
Vnzri
Costuri variabile
0,75
Costuri fixe
13800
Amortizri
8000
Dobnzi
0,12
Impozit pe profit
0,25
5100
Profit net
= 15%
g=0
k = 15%
ROA = 15%
ROE = 15%
15300
CPR
DAT
= kc
+ k d (1 - )
, sau
CPR + DAT
CPR + DAT
DAT
L
U
= k ec
k ec
1 L
V0
22
Ec.impozit
V0
V0UCPR = 102000
DAT R dob
cu R dob = k DAT
k DAT
(AE)
Vnzri
Costuri variabile
0.75
68000
Capitaluri proprii
34000
50000
102000
TOTAL
102000
168800
kU = 15%
g=0
126600
V0U = 102000
V0UCPR = 52000
V0L = 114500
V0LCPR = 64500
Costuri fixe
13800
Amortizri
8000
Dobnzi
0.12
6000
Impozit pe profit
0.25
3600
Profit net
52000
10800
kL = 13.36%
kCPR = 16.744%
ROA = 15.00%
ROE =
16,744%
k ec = 16,744%
64.500
50.000
+ 12% (1 0,25)
=
114.500
114.500
= 13,36%
50.000
0,25 = 13,36%
k ec = 15%1
114
.
500
68000
Capitaluri proprii
34000
TOTAL
(AE)
102000
Vnzri
Costuri variabile
0,75
V0 =
PN gU=0
k gU=0
PN gU>0 b
+
kU
g =0
U
k g =0 g
= V0 g = 0 + V0 (Op.Cr )
U
ROE gU>0
kU = 15%
g = 5%
132930
V0U = 102000
V0UCPR = 102000
Costuri fixe
13800
8000
Dobnzi
0,12
Impozit pe profit
0,25
5627
kUg = 15%
kUgCPR = 15%
16882
k = 15%
ROA = 16,55%
Dividende
d = 0,66667
11255
Profit
reinvestit
b = 0,33333
5627
ROE =
16.882
= 0,165515, respectiv 16,55%
102.000
0,165515
1
5.627,5
15.300
0,15
=
+
V0 =
0,15
0,15 0,05
= 102.000 + 5.821 = 107.821
Div 1
+g
P0
n care:
Div1 = Div0 (1 + g);
g = ROE b = constant; n ;
ROE = rata de rentabilitate a capitalurilor proprii;
b = coeficient de reinere din profitul net pentru
autofinanarea investiiilor noi.
0
102000
177240
Amortizri
Profit net
TOTAL
102000
10.200
+ 0,05 = 0,10 + 0,05 = 0,15, respectiv 15%.
102.000
23
68000
Capitaluri proprii
34000
50000
TOTAL
102000
TOTAL
L; g > 0
= k cL; g >0
k ec
CPR
DAT
+ k d (1 - )
,
AE
AE
(AE)
102000
Vnzri
Costuri variabile
unde:
k cL; g > 0 =
PN gL>0
CPR gL> 0
69.635
+ 12%
119.635
50.000
(1 - 0,25)
= 14,2655%,
119.635
L; g > 0
= 18,05%
k ec
0,75
Costuri fixe
178221
kU = 15%
g = 5,58%
133666
V0U
= 102000
V0UCPR = 52000
V0LCPR = 64500
13800
Amortizri
8000
V0L = 114500
Dobnzi
0,12
6000
kL = 13,36%
Impozit pe profit
0,25
4189
Profit net
12567
Dividende d = 0,66667
8378
b = 0,33333
4189
Profit
reinvestit
unde:
k cL; g >0 =
12.567
69.635
24
52000
kLCPR = 16,744%
V0g
= 107135
V0UgCPR = 57135
V0Lg = 119635
V0LgCPR = 69635
kLg = 14,265%
kLgCPR = 18,05%
V0;L g > 0
0,1673
1
4.189
0,15
= 102.000 + 12.500 +
=
0,15 0,0558
= 114.500 + 5.135 = 119.635
Note
Active imobilizate
Active circ. nete
TOTAL
(AE)
68000
34000
102000
Vnzri
Costuri variabile
Costuri fixe
Amortizri
Dobnzi
Impozit pe profit
Profit net
0,75
0,12
0,25
Dividende
Profit reinvestit
d = 0,66667
b = 0,33333
168800
126600
13800
8000
0
5100
15300
10200
5100
Capitaluri proprii
Datorii > 1 an (TL)
TOTAL
102000
0
102000
kU = 15,00%
V0U = 102000
g = 5,00%
V0UCPR = 102000
V0L = 102000
V0LCPR = 102000
kL = 15,00%
kCPR = 15,00%
V0g = 102000
V0UgCPR = 102000
k = 15%
ROA = 15,00%
U
DAT k d 1 + k ec
U
1 + kd
k ec
i
V0L = V0U +
U
DAT k d 1 + k ec
U
1 + kd
k ec
k ec
U
DAT k d 1 + k ec
U
U
+ k ec
kd
k c = k ec
) DAT
.
CPR
25
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