Vinculacion Sectorial de La Economia Mexicana

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL
AUTNOMA DE MXICO
FACULTAD DE ESTUDIOS SUPERIORES ACATLN
VINCULACIN SECTORIAL DE LA ECONOMA MEXICANA:

EL SECTOR FINANCIERO Y EL SECTOR REAL.
UN ANLISIS DESDE LA PERSPECTIVA DE LA MATRIZ
DE CONTABILIDAD SOCIAL DE MXICO 2003.
T R A B A J O
D E
T E S I S
QUE PARA OBTENER EL GRADO DE

MAESTRO EN ECONOMA PRESENTA:
NGEL FERNANDO PINEDA SOLS
TUTOR:
GABRIEL GMEZ OCHOA
SEPTIEMBRE DE 2011
Quiero agradecer:
A ti Alejandra, por compartir tu vida conmigo, por estar junto a m en
todo momento, por qu sin tu apoyo y consejos, adems de tu
comprensin, no podra salir adelante en mis proyectos, ni en mis
sueos. Te amo.
A Hctor, Jorge y Luis, por su comprensin al no poder darles todo el
tiempo que quisieran, por su paciencia y amor hacia m. Son lo mejor,
los quiero mucho.
A mis padres, por su amor incondicional, confianza y fe en m, por su
ejemplo y por ensearme que se puede lograr siempre lo que uno se
propone. Gracias por estar siempre para m, los quiero mucho.
Tambin de manera muy especial a todas aquellas personas que me
ayudaron, de una u otra forma, en la culminacin de este proyecto, por
su apoyo, fe, consejos, opinin y sobre todo con su tiempo. Gracias:
Gabriel Gmez, Fernando Garca, Pablo Prez, Gabriel Robles, Rafael
Bouchain, Francisco Guilln, Daniel Vargas y a todos aquellos que por mi
falta de memoria, ms no de reconocimiento, no pude listar.
ndice
Introduccin
Captulo I. La Matriz de Contabilidad Social
1.1. Antecedentes
El comienzo
Lo contemporaneo
En Mxico
4
10
10
10
13
14
1.2. Estructura
16
1.3. Las cuentas
20
Definicin de las cuentas

a) Cuentas corrientes
b) Cuentas de capital
1.4. Aplicaciones
Captulo II. La vinculacin sectorial
2.1. Los multiplicadores contables
Estructurra bsica
El enfoque de Gosh
Descomposicin multiplicativa
Descomposicin aditiva
2.2. Los encadenamientos
Encadenamientos hacia atrs
Encadenamientos hacia adelante
Clasificacin de las cuentas en la SAM
2.3. La vinculacin entre cuentas
Captulo III. La Matriz de Contabilidad Social de Mxico 2003
3.1. Composicin
Las cuentas
22
24
27
29
32
32
32
38
41
45
46
50
51
53
54
58
58
58
3.2. Estimacin de multiplicadores
71
3.3. Estimacin de encadenamientos
75
3.4. Anlisis de la vinculacin sectorial
87
Efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias

cruzadas o de filtracin
Efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias
circulares o de retroalimentacin
Captulo IV. Conclusiones y recomendaciones
88
91
94
Bibliografa
102
Anexos
105
Introduccin
Al hablar del sector financiero, se hace referencia implcita al sistema
financiero, por lo que resulta necesario preguntarse en primer lugar
cmo se integra y qu papel juega en la economa. En segundo lugar,
cules son los vnculos entre este sector y el real, a fin de comprender
mejor el sentido y la importancia que tiene su relacin para medir la
eficiencia del sistema econmico en su conjunto.
Se entiende como sector real de la economa al conjunto de
actividades que se desarrollan en el mbito de la produccin,
distribucin y consumo de bienes; por otro lado, el sistema financiero
est considerado como el conjunto de funciones que se realizan para la
creacin, liquidacin, compra y venta de activos financieros y
monetarios 1.
Una de las funciones principales del sistema financiero, es la
canalizacin de recursos de los ahorradores que tienen excesos de
recursos, a los inversionistas y consumidores que tienen escasez de ellos.
Si se desempea adecuadamente esta funcin, se ampliar el bienestar
econmico de todos en la sociedad, al permitir la movilizacin de
recursos de aquellos sin oportunidad productiva hacia aquellos que si la
tienen, y contribuir as a una eficiencia creciente en la economa.
Definicin a partir de la interpretacin de Mantey, Guadalupe (1997). Lecciones de Economa

Monetaria; Captulo 2 pp. 25-27 Mxico: UNAM.
Sin embargo, en aos recientes se ha observado que en Mxico, el

financiamiento al sector privado respecto del Producto Interno Bruto
(PIB), ha decado; lo que lleva a suponer, debido a la tendencia
creciente del propio PIB, que las actividades productivas han recurrido,
como consecuencia, a la prctica del autofinanciamiento o a
financiarse con proveedores, como se puede dilucidar con la grfica
siguiente.
Financiamiento al Sector Privado: Empresas

vs ndice de variaciones del PIB real
(1994-2009)
140
120
100
80
ndice de
variaciones del
PIB 2003=100
60
Financiamiento
a las Empresas
como % del PIB
40
20
0
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Fuente: Elaboracin propia con base en informacin de BANXICO e INEGI.
Por otro lado, Mxico tiene niveles de penetracin financiera,

considerando el crdito al sector privado, significativamente inferiores a
los que se esperaran dado el desempeo que muestra su economa.
Aun con el dinamismo que ha mostrado la banca comercial en los

ltimos aos en el otorgamiento de crdito, el nivel de profundidad del
sistema bancario se encuentra por debajo de los niveles registrados en
otros pases, incluso en economas con un nivel de desarrollo similar a
Mxico, como es el caso de Chile, tal y como se observa en la siguiente
grfica.
163.9
168.1
Suiza
180
Reino Unido
Crdito Bancario al Sector Privado 1/

(% del PIB)
151.1
160
130.5
107.5
108.8
Alemania
120
Australia
140
94.8
60
57.8
62.1
Chile
80
Estados Unidos
100
40
20
13.2
Espaa
Canad
Repblica de Corea
Mxico
1/ La cifra utilizada para el caso de Mxico corresponde a 2007, entanto que para el resto de pases las
cifras son a 2006
Fuente: Programa Nacional de Financiamiento del Desarrollo 2008-2012.
De tal forma, dado que la evidencia emprica discrepa en alguna

medida con la funcin terica del sistema financiero, el problema de
investigacin se puede plantear con la pregunta siguiente: Cul es la
magnitud de la vinculacin que existe entre el sector financiero y el
sector real en la economa mexicana?
6
Por lo cual se establece como hiptesis la existencia de debilidad

estructural del sistema financiero mexicano, lo que impide que financie
adecuadamente, al menos en teora, el gasto del sector real de la
economa nacional, tanto consumo como inversin productiva; esto
significa que intermediarios y mercados financieros no contribuyen de
manera relevante al desempeo de la economa, debido a que hay
una desvinculacin entre sector financiero y sector real.
La vinculacin sectorial de la economa ha sido un tema en revisin
constante, principalmente acerca de la forma en que el sector
financiero impacta en el desenvolvimiento de la economa real,
haciendo nfasis en la necesidad de conocer y entender esta relacin.
Por s mismo, el sector financiero ha llegado a ser objeto de un amplio
espacio de estudio, tanto por economistas, como por estudiosos de
otras numerosas disciplinas. La aparicin de crisis recurrentes en el
mbito mundial y nacional, relacionadas con el desempeo de los
diferentes mercados financieros, ha llamado la atencin sobre el
comportamiento de este sector al evidenciarse que en tal situacin, el
sector financiero parece seguir una dinmica diferente a la del resto de
la economa.
As pues, este trabajo propone mostrar los vnculos interinstitucionales de
las transacciones reales y financieras de la economa mexicana, en el
marco de una Matriz de Contabilidad Social (SAM, por sus siglas en
ingls), construida ex profeso para Mxico con informacin del ao

2003.
El objetivo general de la presente investigacin es analizar la vinculacin
sectorial de la economa mexicana, especficamente entre el sector
financiero y el sector real, mediante la estimacin de multiplicadores
contables a partir de una SAM de Mxico con informacin de 2003,
para medir el grado de vinculacin interinstitucional existente.
Como objetivos particulares se propone: construir una SAM de Mxico
con datos de 2003 e informacin desagregada para el sector
financiero, con el fin de realizar el anlisis especfico de y con dicho
sector;
estimar
los
multiplicadores
contables
para
calcular
los
encadenamientos financieros y reales; calcular los encadenamientos

financieros y reales, hacia atrs y hacia adelante, para realizar el anlisis
de vinculacin interinstitucional; y, determinar el grado de vinculacin
interinstitucional
existente
en
la
economa,
para
establecer las
conclusiones pertinentes al anlisis sobre la vinculacin sectorial de la

economa mexicana.
Este trabajo se divide en cuatro captulos; en el primero se define el
marco conceptual de la matriz de contabilidad social, a partir de sus
antecedentes, su estructura, las cuentas que la conforman y sus
aplicaciones; en el segundo captulo se establece el marco terico,
considerando los multiplicadores contables, los encadenamientos y la
vinculacin entre cuentas; en el captulo tercero se discute la

metodologa para la elaboracin de la matriz de contabilidad social de
Mxico 2003, haciendo un repaso de su composicin, la estimacin de
multiplicadores, la estimacin de encadenamientos y el anlisis de la
vinculacin sectorial; y por ltimo, en el cuarto captulo, se establecen
las conclusiones y recomendaciones.
Captulo I. La Matriz de Contabilidad Social

1.1. Antecedentes
El comienzo.
Para remontarse al origen de las Matrices de Contabilidad Social, es
necesario
ubicarse
en
los
primeros
intentos
por
representar
el
funcionamiento de una economa agregada, cuando se buscaron

instrumentos que fueran capaces de incorporar informacin sobre la
estructura socioeconmica y la interrelacin entre sus agentes.
A finales del siglo XVII, el ingls William Petty, mide por primera vez el
ingreso y el consumo de Inglaterra, sugiriendo adems la medicin
sistemtica de la actividad econmica, en su libro Political Arithmetick
(1690). Continuando con el trabajo de Petty, Gregory King realiza un
manuscrito Natural and Political Observations and Conclusions upon
the State and Condition of England (1696) 2, en el que presenta
estimaciones de la poblacin y la riqueza de Inglaterra.
Para finales del siglo XVIII, el francs Franois Quesnay en su Tableau
conomique (1758) 3, presenta una clasificacin bsica de los agentes
econmicos y una descripcin de los flujos que se establecen entre
ellos, as como de la distribucin y uso del excedente econmico en la
2
No fue publicado por el autor, Charles Davenant lo incorpor parcialmente a su Essay upon the
Probable Methods of making a People Gainers in the Balance of Trade (1699), pero la totalidad del
texto no fue conocida hasta 1804, cuando lo public George Chalmers, junto con una biografa del autor.
3
Se dice que Quesnay se bas en el trabajo del irlands Richard Cantilln Essai sur la nature du
Commerce en Gnral (1755), en el que analiz los flujos de ingreso entre los principales sectores de la
economa; sin embargo, se ha considerado a Quesnay, como el precursor del anlisis de los flujos
intersectoriales.
10
sociedad, con lo que contribuy a la medicin de la actividad

econmica de Francia.
El Tableau conomique tuvo poca difusin y el alcance de su
utilizacin fue limitado, ya que autores posteriores no hicieron mayor uso
del modelo. Sin embargo, no se abandon la idea de una economa
interrelacionada cuya estructura bsica poda ser modelada. Una de
las obras que ofrecen un tratamiento completo de los vnculos
econmicos y sociales es Das Kapital de Karl Marx (1885).
Tambin, en el siglo XIX, gracias al desarrollo de la teora econmica y a
la introduccin de las matemticas aplicadas al anlisis econmico,
Leon Walras (1874), formula por primera vez en lenguaje matemtico un
modelo de equilibrio general, en el que se define la interdependencia
de los agentes que integran un sistema econmico.
En el siglo XX, se encuentra Wassily Leontief, quien en su obra The
Structure of the American Economy, 1919-1929 (1941) 4, junto con sus
colaboradores de la Universidad de Harvard, desarroll los primeros
cuadros simtricos de insumo-producto y el anlisis econmico de
insumo-producto que hoy se conoce como modelo de Leontief.
Este modelo combina satisfactoriamente la visin macroeconmica de
los economistas clsicos del siglo XVIII, con el rigor matemtico de
Walras. Una gran cantidad de autores, encabezados por el propio
4
Leotinef tom como base para su trabajo el desarrollo estadstico de la ex URSS Balance Sheet of the
National economy of the USSR (1926).
11
Leontief, impulsaron y desarrollaron el primer modelo cerrado de los

aos cuarenta, as como todo un amplio conjunto de tcnicas de
anlisis que han terminado por hacer de los cuadros de insumoproducto una de las herramientas ms utilizadas en el estudio de los
aspectos estructurales de una economa.
El economista americano Simon Kuznets con National Income and its
Composition, 1919-1938 (1941) 5 y los economistas ingleses Richard Stone
y James Meade con National Income and Expenditure (1944), fueron
los
pioneros
del
desarrollo
de
la
contabilidad
nacional,
cuya
estandarizacin posterior le correspondi a Naciones Unidas (1953).

El pionero en disear una herramienta estadstica que permitiera medir
el flujo completo del circuito econmico y sus interrelaciones con los
aspectos sociales ms relevantes, fue tambin Stone, que en el marco
de los
trabajos
del
Departamento
de
Economa Aplicada de
Cambridge, junto con Alan Brown, en el programa de investigacin

sobre el crecimiento A Programe for Growth (1962), desarrollaron el
concepto de la SAM.
Finalmente, el propio Stone fue el encargado de confeccionar el
Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales de las Naciones Unidas de 1968 6, donde
Destacan tambin las aportaciones de: Colin Clark National Income and Outlay (1937) y de John
Hicks, The Social Framework (1942), que incluye un captulo sobre la contabilidad social.
6
Richard Stone fue el que particip en la preparacin de las recomendaciones formuladas en 1947 y
1953 por Naciones Unidas para la construccin del sistema de las cuentas nacionales. Gracias a estos
sistemas de cuentas armonizados internacionalmente es posible actualmente la medicin y
comparacin de las economas nacionales.
12
se incluyen por primera vez las SAM como un mtodo alternativo de

presentacin del sistema completo de cuentas nacionales. 7
Lo contemporneo.
Como consecuencia del nfasis que pone la SAM en las relaciones
intersectoriales y en la distribucin del ingreso, las primeras SAM fueron
elaboradas a mediados de los aos setenta para pases en desarrollo,
con el objetivo de establecer programas que permitieran reducir la
pobreza: la SAM para Irn del ao 1970, SAM de Sri Lanka, 1970, entre
otras.
De hecho, como sealan Pyatt y Round (1985): la SAM sirve para
poner de manifiesto el
hecho de que la distribucin de las
oportunidades de empleo y el nivel de vida estn ntimamente

relacionadas con la estructura productiva y de distribucin de recursos.
Una vez vista la utilidad de las aplicaciones de la SAM para el anlisis de
todo tipo de polticas econmicas, se comenzaron a elaborar para los
pases desarrollados, vinculndolas generalmente a modelos de
equilibrio general computable.
Posteriormente, Pyatt, Thorbecke y otros, desde la dcada de los
setenta, profundizaron estas ideas referidas a problemas de pobreza y
distribucin en los pases en desarrollo. A partir de los aos ochenta se
7
La SAM es una tabla del tipo insumo-producto que recoge datos de carcter social con nfasis sobre
todo en el empleo y en la parte industrial de la economa, demostrando cmo las cuentas de
produccin, consumo, acumulacin y resto del mundo pueden estar integradas en un nico sistema
contable
13
constat un creciente inters en el diseo, construccin y uso de dichas

matrices para estos pases.
En la actualidad se han construido SAM para un gran nmero de pases,
entre ellos: Chipre, Indonesia, Malasia, Filipinas, India, Corea, Arabia
Saudita, Brasil, Tailandia, Turqua, Estados Unidos, Holanda, Italia,
Yugoslavia y Espaa, entre otros; as como para muchos pases
africanos, debido al impulso del Banco Mundial.
En Mxico
Aunque las matrices de contabilidad social se construyen en varios
pases desde la dcada de 1970 y a pesar de su importancia, no hay
una SAM oficial para Mxico y cada investigador ha tenido que
elaborar la suya, como ejemplo basta citar algunas en siguiente cuadro:
Ao Investigador
SAM (es)
1975 Boris Pleskovic y
Gustavo
Trevio
1985 Horacio
Sobarzo
Trabajo (s)
Objetivo de la SAM
The use of a social

accounting matrix
framework for public
sector analysis: The case
study of Mexico (1985)
A general equilibrium
analysis of the gains from
trade for the Mexican
economy of a North
American Free Trade
Agreement (1992) y
The gains for Mexico
from a North American
Free Trade Agreement an applied general
equilibrium assessment
(1994)
Analizar la funcin del

sector pblico en la
economa mexicana
Calibrar modelos de
equilibrio general
computable para analizar
las consecuencias del
tratado de libre comercio
de Amrica del norte y la
aplicacin de polticas
fiscales
14
Ao Investigador
SAM (es)
1989 Santiago Levy y
Sweder van
Wijnbergen
1996 Rebeca Harris y
Sherman
Robinson
Trabajo (s)
Objetivo de la SAM
Transition problems in
economic reform:
agriculture in the
Mexico-U.S. free trade
agreement (1992)
Estimation of a
regionalized Mexican
Social Accounting Matrix
using entropy techniques
to reconcile disparate
data sources (2003)
Calibrar un modelo para

evaluar el impacto de la
apertura comercial de
Mxico
1997 Scott
McDonald y
y
2001 Karen
Thierfelder
Deriving a Global Social

Accounting Matrix from
GTAP Versions 5 and 6
Data (2004)
2003 Araceli Ortega
Construccin de la
matriz de contabilidad
social 2003 para Mxico
(2006)
2004 Irene Barboza,

Jorge Vzquez
y Jaime Matus
Matriz de contabilidad
social 2004 para Mxico
(2009)
2004 Ernesto
Aguayo, Joana
Chapa, Nelly
Ramrez y Erick
Rangel
Anlisis de la
generacin y
redistribucin del ingreso
en Mxico a travs de
una matriz de
contabilidad social
(2009)
Una Matriz de
Contabilidad Social de
Mxico y un anlisis
estructural de la
economa mexicana
(2010)
2006 Gaspar Nuez

y Clemente
Polo
Describir la construccin de
la matriz de contabilidad
social para utilizarla como
marco de datos para
elaborar un modelo de
equilibrio general
computable regionalizado
Construir una SAM a partir
de la base de datos del
global trade analysis
project de la Universidad
de Purdue
Aplicar el modelo de
seguimiento de metas del
milenio descrito en
Assessing Development
Strategies to Achieve the
Millennium Development
Goals in Latin America
Analizar polticas
econmicas, medir el
impacto de choques
externos y estudiar la
dinmica de los mercados
y la estructura de las
instituciones
Analizar la generacin y
redistribucin de la renta y
determinar el ingreso
inducido y redistribuido de
una inyeccin exgena
unitaria como el caso de
las remesas internacionales
Analizar el impacto sobre la
distribucin del ingreso de
un incremento en la
demanda agregada
uniformemente distribuido,
de un incremento en la
inversin, de un incremento
en las exportaciones y de
un aumento en el gasto
pblico en sanidad o
educacin
15
En consecuencia, se puede apreciar que para la economa mexicana

son relativamente recientes los trabajos que se han realizado para la
construccin de una SAM, con respecto a la importancia de las
posibilidades que ofrece esta herramienta para el anlisis econmico
aplicado y de las polticas pblicas.
Como se seal, hasta el momento no existe ninguna SAM elaborada y
refrendada por organismos oficiales del gobierno de Mxico; sin
embargo, las SAM se han elaborado para trabajos de modelizacin
especficos que no forman parte de la actividad gubernamental.
1.2. Estructura
Como se pudo observar en el punto anterior, la SAM se ha venido
consolidando durante los ltimos 40 aos como una importante
herramienta para el anlisis de polticas macroeconmicas, sectoriales y
comerciales, ya que describe extensivamente la economa nacional y
sus relaciones con el mundo. Su compilacin y aplicacin se ha
extendido prcticamente a todo el mundo, en un sinnmero de estudios
econmicos empricos y tericos, con la finalidad de establecer polticas
pblicas y de planeacin, as como para servir de base para la
creacin de modelos de simulacin, que permiten medir y evaluar el
impacto que se produce en la economa ante la aplicacin de las
diferentes polticas.
La importancia de la SAM deriva de registrar todas las transacciones
16
relevantes dentro de una economa, utilizando el concepto contable

de la partida doble y mostrar las relaciones que se establecen entre las
variables macroeconmicas ms importantes, con lo que permite ver
de una forma comprensiva y consistente las relaciones de la economa
a nivel de sectores productivos, factores de la produccin, gobierno e
instituciones nacionales y extranjeras y las relaciones que se establecen
entre las variables macroeconmicas ms importantes.
Abordando la composicin de su estructura, se puede referir que una
SAM es una matriz cuadrada y simtrica, compuesta por diversas
cuentas, en la que cada una de ellas es representada mediante las filas
y las columnas. En dichas cuentas se compila informacin acerca de la
produccin, los ingresos y el financiamiento generados por los diferentes
agentes institucionales, as como de sus diversos usos. 8 El nmero de filas
y columnas es flexible, depende de la naturaleza de la economa en
cuestin y del propsito que se persigue al construir la SAM.
En cada celda se describen las diferentes transacciones, los pagos
realizados desde la cuenta de la columna hacia la cuenta de la fila en
cuestin, mientras que los ingresos de dicha cuenta aparecen a lo largo
de la fila correspondiente; de forma recproca, entonces, sus gastos
aparecen en la columna respectiva. De tal forma que el sistema
contable utilizado proporciona estructuras lgicas que permiten la
coherencia en las cuentas y entre ellas.
8
Para un detalle ms extenso ver en Pyatt (1991) y Pyatt y Round (1977), (1979) y (1985).
17
De acuerdo con la condicin de simetricidad, conjuntamente con el

principio de la doble partida, se requiere que para cada cuenta de la
SAM, los ingresos totales (suma de cada fila) sean iguales a los gastos
totales (suma de cada columna). En este sentido, se debe concebir a la
SAM como una presentacin tabular de identidades contables en las
que los ingresos deben ser iguales a los gastos, para todos y cada uno
de los sectores de la economa; es decir, el total de las operaciones
registradas como recursos (o variaciones de los pasivos) y el total de
operaciones registradas como empleos (o variaciones de los activos)
debe ser igual. Del mismo modo, la estrecha relacin entre las cuentas
de flujo y los balances, asegura que los cambios en existencias se
explican por los flujos registrados 9.
Ahora bien, la desagregacin de los sectores productivos en una SAM
depende principalmente de los objetivos que se persiguen y de la
cantidad y calidad de informacin existente y disponible. Una SAM
contiene todas las transacciones que tienen lugar en una economa
determinada durante un perodo de tiempo dado.
De acuerdo con Miller y Blair (2009), un punto de partida conceptual
para la construccin de la SAM, es regresar al concepto de describir el
flujo circular de ingreso y gasto en la economa. Si cambia la
perspectiva de ver el flujo circular del ingreso y gasto, a una en la que
se verifiquen las transacciones entre sectores institucionales en adicin a
9
Statistics Netherlands (2003).
18
la visin asociada con la industria y los flujos de bienes, se pueden

identificar explcitamente los lugares donde las transacciones ocurren,
los mercados. (Figura 1)
Figura 1. Flujo circular del ingreso, gasto y mercado
Fuente: elaboracin propia con base en Pyatt (1991) y en Miller y Blair (2009)
Los agentes econmicos de una regin o pas pueden dividirse en

sectores institucionales. 10 Cada una de las cuentas se prepara para
cada uno de estos sectores, que se suman para la economa en su
conjunto. Cada una de estas unidades institucionales se caracteriza por
la uniformidad de comportamiento 11 y la toma de decisiones de
10
EC, IMF, OCDE, UN & WB (2009).

La justificacin de la agrupacin es que los miembros de un sector se comportan de manera similar
desde el punto de vista del anlisis econmico. As, por ejemplo, las caractersticas de los hogares son la
definicin de (a) proceden los recursos de los rendimientos del trabajo o del capital, (b) pagan una parte
de la misma al sector pblico, y (c) que utilizan el resto principalmente para el consumo y el ahorro; por
otro lado, el gobierno seala a los principales recursos de los impuestos.
11
19
manera autnoma. De tal forma que los sectores institucionales se

agrupan en cinco en caso de no considerar al resto del mundo
sectores institucionales mutuamente excluyentes:
Las sociedades no financieras.
Las sociedades financieras.
El gobierno general.
Los hogares.
Instituciones privadas sin fines de lucro al servicio de los hogares.
1.3. Las Cuentas

El flujo de transacciones de los sectores se establece a travs de una
secuencia de cuentas, donde cada cuenta se cierra con un saldo
contable, que se traslada a la cuenta siguiente para dar su apertura y
continuar con el registro de transacciones.
Los vnculos intersectoriales estn slidamente identificados a partir de
dos grupos de cuentas econmicas:
Cuentas corrientes, en la que se registran los bienes y servicios, la

produccin, la distribucin primaria y secundaria del ingreso y la
utilizacin del mismo; muestran cmo se utiliza el Ingreso
disponible en el consumo final para concluir con el saldo contable
Ahorro.
Cuentas de capital, que registran todas las variaciones de activos

financieros y pasivos as como todas las otras variaciones de
20
activos, este conjunto constituye el saldo contable de las

variaciones del valor neto; adems se incluyen balances que
registran, a partir de los acervos de activos y pasivos, tanto
financieros como no financieros, la diferencia de los aos de
apertura y de cierre, que son en s las variaciones del balance
valor neto, en el periodo contable.
La presentacin de estas secuencias de cuentas es una manera
sinttica de mostrar las cuentas nacionales a travs de la SAM,
conocida, en este caso, como Matriz de Cuentas Nacionales (NAM por
sus siglas en ingls), la cual se puede presentar bajo distintos niveles de
agregacin:
Matrices
consolidadas
abreviadas,
que
contraen
la
generacin, distribucin y redistribucin del ingreso, as como las

transacciones corrientes y de capital del resto del mundo.
Matrices agregadas, que presentan cada una de las cuentas de

manera
separada,
pero
mostrando
sus
componentes
concentradas en cada una de las celdas que la componen.
Matrices desagregadas, en las que se incluye una sub-matriz

para cada una de los componentes que contiene cada cuenta;
es decir, se representa de manera matricial cada una de las
celdas de la matriz agregada.
21
Como la matriz agregada es el punto intermedio, a partir del cual se

pueden derivar la versin consolidada y la desagregada, es con base
en ella que se explicar la composicin y definicin de las cuentas de la
SAM.
Definicin de las cuentas.
A partir del esquema de la matriz agregada (Vase Tabla 1), se puede
puntualizar la forma en que se compone cada una de las cuentas, de
acuerdo con su correspondencia a las transacciones corrientes y de
capital, incluyidos los balances.
Tabla 1. SAM agregada
CUENTAS
ByS
ByS
MCD
GI
API
GI
API
DSI
UT
FBKF
TQ
Yn
UT
Rp
Tr
YDn
Trp
DP
Sn
RMK
DPp
Tk
Tkp
In
A
M
RMK
Wp
YNn
FBKF
RMC
X
Vn
DSI
RMC
Wr
Rr
Trr
PNE
DPr
Tkr
SCE
Fuente: elaboracin propia con base en Miller y Blair (2009) y Statistics Netherlands
(2003).
= Mrgenes de comercio y de transporte.

22
= Valor bruto de la produccin a precios bsicos 12.
= Impuestos sobre los productos, netos de subsidios.

= Importacin de bienes y servicios.
= Consumo intermedio a precios de comprador 13.

= Valor agregado neto 14.
= Consumo de capital fijo.
= Generacin del ingreso neto.
= Remuneraciones recibidas del exterior.

= Renta de la propiedad.
= Ingreso nacional neto.
= Rentas de la propiedad recibidas del exterior.
= Transferencias corrientes.
= Ingreso disponible ajustado 15 neto.
= Transferencias corrientes recibidas del exterior.
= Gastos de consumo final.
= Ajuste por cambio en los derechos de pensiones.

= Ahorro neto.
= Ajuste por cambio en los derechos de pensiones recibidas del
exterior.
= Variacin de existencias.
= Transferencias de capital.
= Formacin neta de capital fijo
= Adquisicin neta de activos financieros.
= Transferencias de capital recibidas del exterior.
= Formacin bruta 16 de capital fijo.
= Emisin Neta de Pasivos Financieros.

12
De acuerdo con el SNA 2008, se refiere a la valoracin de los precios libres de los mrgenes de
comercio y de transporte, los impuestos y los subsidios sobre los productos.
13
De acuerdo con el SNA 2008, se refiere a la valoracin de los precios incluyendo los mrgenes de
comercio y de transporte, as como los impuestos y los subsidios sobre los productos.
14
El trmino neto se utiliza para indicar que no se incluye el consumo de capital fijo, este trmino se
considerar tambin en la derivacin del ingreso hasta llegar al ahorro.
15
El ajuste se refiere a la inclusin de las transferencias sociales en especie.
16
El trmino bruto se utiliza para indicar que se incluye el consumo de capital fijo
23
= Exportacin de bienes y servicios.
= Remuneraciones pagadas al exterior.
= Rentas de la propiedad pagadas al exterior.
= Transferencias corrientes enviadas al exterior.
= Ajuste por cambio en los derechos de pensiones pagadas al

exterior.
= Saldo corriente con el exterior.
= Transferencias de capital enviadas al exterior.

= Prstamo neto del exterior.
a) Cuentas corrientes.
Cuenta de bienes y servicios ().- en ella se presenta la oferta y
utilizacin de los bienes y servicios disponibles en la economa.
Por el lado de la oferta tenemos:
= + + +
y por el lado de la utilizacin:
= + + + + +
Cuenta de produccin ().- en esta cuenta se presenta la produccin17
nacional de bienes y servicios disponibles en la economa.

Por el lado de los usos se expresa como:
= + +
17
La produccin se describe como una actividad en la que una unidad productiva utiliza insumos para
obtener bienes y/o servicios.
24
mientras que por el lado de los recursos:

=
Cuenta de generacin del ingreso ().- esta cuenta constituye una
elaboracin ms detallada de la cuenta de produccin, en especfico

de la composicin del valor agregado, en la que se registran los ingresos
primarios 18 originados por las unidades productivas.
Por el lado de los usos la conformacin es:
= +
en tanto que desde la ptica de los recursos, se tiene:
= +
Cuenta de asignacin primaria del ingreso ().- est conformada
como una derivacin de la cuenta de generacin del ingreso y la
cuenta de asignacin del ingreso primario. Su finalidad es mostrar cmo
se distribuyen los ingresos primarios entre los participantes en el proceso
de produccin.
Desde la perspectiva de los usos se tiene:
= + +
18
Los ingresos primarios son los generados por las unidades productivas como resultado de su
participacin en los procesos productivos y de la propiedad de activos que pueden ser necesarios para
propsitos de la produccin.
25
y desde la de los recursos:

= + + +
Cuenta de distribucin secundaria del ingreso ().- en esta cuenta se
muestra cmo se transforma el saldo de ingresos primarios en ingreso
disponible mediante la percepcin y el pago de transferencias

corrientes.
= + +
= + +
Cuenta de utilizacin del ingreso ().- esta cuenta tiene como
finalidad mostrar la forma en que los hogares, las unidades del gobierno
y las instituciones sin fines de lucro que sirven a los hogares reparten su
ingreso disponible entre el consumo final y el ahorro.
= + + +
= + +
26
Resto del mundo ().- en esta cuenta se registran todas las

transacciones corrientes que se realizan con el resto del mundo. Las
cuentas del resto del mundo se tratan por separado al resto de los
sectores institucionales.
= + + + + +
en tanto que desde los recursos se tiene:
= + + + +
b) Cuentas de capital.
Cuenta de capital ().- esta cuenta registra los valores de los activos no
financieros que las unidades institucionales adquieren o disponen
mediante transacciones; adems, muestra la variacin del valor neto

consecuencia del ahorro y de las transferencias de capital.
= + + + +
= + + +
27
Cuenta de formacin bruta de capital fijo ().- en esta cuenta se

puntualiza sobre el saldo de las adquisiciones y disposiciones de los
activos no financieros que realizan las unidades institucionales.
Desde la perspectiva de los usos se tiene:
=
y desde la de los recursos:
= +
Cuenta financiera ().- esta cuenta es la ltima de la secuencia de

cuentas, en la cual se contabilizan todas las adquisiciones menos las
disposiciones de activos financieros, adems de la emisin de pasivos
menos su reembolso.
=
por el lado de los recursos:
= +
Resto del mundo ().- en esta cuenta se registran todas las

transacciones de capital que se realizan con el resto del mundo. Como
se aclar en las cuentas corrientes, las del resto del mundo se tratan por
separado del resto de los sectores institucionales.
28

= +
1.4. Aplicaciones
= +
De manera general, la SAM tiene dos utilidades fundamentales: la

primera como una imagen esttica de la economa, que al mismo
tiempo puede ser vista como una representacin de los flujos anuales,
que se explican por relaciones estructurales o de comportamiento.
Mientras que la segunda es servir de base para la elaboracin de
modelos econmicos que permitan explicar las interdependencias
existentes en una economa.
Los modelos que pueden construirse sobre las matrices de contabilidad
social pueden encuadrarse en dos grandes grupos:
I.
Modelos SAM lineales, que se trata de modelos similares, en

cuanto a su estructura formal, al modelo abierto input-output de
Leontief y en el que tambin se utiliza una matriz de propensiones
medias al gasto equivalente a la matriz de coeficientes tcnicos.
Desde esta ptica, la SAM puede ser utilizada como un marco
conceptual que explora el impacto que ocurre en el sistema, a
29
partir de los cambios exgenos 19 en variables como las

exportaciones, el gasto pblico, y las inversiones en un sistema
socio-econmico.
II.
Modelos de equilibrio general aplicado, los cuales son modelos

bastante ms complejos, con hiptesis menos restrictivas para el
comportamiento de los agentes, y en los que bsicamente se
plantean un conjunto de ecuaciones simultneas que reflejan las
condiciones de equilibrio de una economa.
De esta forma, la SAM puede ser la base para el anlisis de

multiplicadores y encadenamientos, y/o la construccin y calibracin
de una variedad de modelos de equilibrio general aplicado. En donde
la estructura elegida y el nivel de desagregacin son determinados por
el anlisis que se pretende abordar con la SAM.
El anlisis de multiplicadores y encadenamientos es el que se utilizar en
esta investigacin, debido a que nuestro propsito es estudiar los
vnculos intersectoriales del sector financiero con el sector real de la
economa, por lo tanto se desarrolla formalmente y de manera
detallada en el captulo II.
Por ltimo, cabe sealar sin ser exhaustivos, que adicionalmente dentro
de algunas otras aplicaciones, pueden considerarse las siguientes:
anlisis regional, anlisis sectorial, anlisis fiscal, anlisis del desarrollo,
19
El gobierno, el resto del mundo y las cuentas de capital suelen tratarse como exgenos, y los factores
de la produccin, los sector institucionales diferentes del gobierno y las cuentas de produccin, como
endgenas.
30
anlisis de polticas pblicas, anlisis de precios, etctera. Dependiendo

de la aplicacin que se pretenda dar a la SAM, se requerir modelar
ms detalladamente en un rea u otra de la economa, lo que llevar a
un tipo u otro de SAM.
31
Captulo II. La vinculacin sectorial

2.1. Los multiplicadores contables 20Estructura bsica.
Para construir los multiplicadores contables, se parte de una SAM como
la presentada en la Tabla 1 del captulo anterior, donde cada celda
considera una submatriz de la SAM desagregada 21; adems, bajo la
consideracin de que se han seleccionado las cuentas exgenas y
endgenas de dicha SAM desagregada, de tal forma que al reordenar
las cuentas correspondientes, se puede representar de la siguiente
manera:
11
21
12
22
donde
=
SAM
11 = Matriz de transacciones entre cuentas endgenas
12 = Matriz de inyecciones desde cuentas exgenas hacia

endgenas
21 = Matriz de filtraciones desde cuentas endgenas hacia

exgenas
22 = Matriz de transacciones entre cuentas exgenas

esquemticamente
( )
()
()
( )
20
El anlisis de multiplicadores para una SAM se deriva del enfoque de la inversa de Leontief. Para una
descripcin ms detallada, vase Miller y Blair (2009), Ten Raa (2006), Leontief (1986) y Stone (1969)
21
SAM totalmente articulada en el sentido de Miller. Vase Miller y Blair (2009).
32
El significado econmico de la separacin de las cuentas en

endgenas y exgenas, est relacionado con la naturaleza keynesiana
de este tipo de modelo22. Al considerar el enfoque de Leontief en un
modelo SAM, se establece como a partir de los cambios en las cuentas
exgenas constituidas como inyecciones dentro del sistema, se genera
un proceso particular de efectos multiplicadores (filtraciones) en el
conjunto de las cuentas endgenas 23.
Considerando los elementos anteriores, se puede establecer entonces,
el modelo de la SAM con la siguiente especificacin:
(1)
11 = 1 1
donde 1 = 11 1
1
1 = Matriz de propensiones medias al gasto endgeno
1 = Matriz diagonal de totales de las cuentas endgenas

(ingresos endgenos)
= Matriz diagonal inversa de totales de las cuentas

1
1
endgenas (ingresos endgenos)
21 = 3 1 ;
(2)
donde 3 = 21 1
1
22
El objetivo principal del modelo de Keynes es investigar los cambios inducidos en el nivel de la
actividad econmica, el producto interno bruto (PIB), como resultado de cambios en los gastos
autnomos.
23
En ambos casos es necesario calcular los multiplicadores. En el modelo de Keynes el multiplicador de
los gastos autnomos es un nmero, mientras que en el modelo de Leontief el multiplicador tiene forma
de una matriz. Esta desagregacin permite no slo calcular los efectos de los cambios en el valor total de
la demanda autnoma, sino tambin los efectos de los cambios en la composicin de la misma.
33

exgenas
3 = Matriz de propensiones medias de filtracin

(ingresos endgenos)
1
1
(3)
1 = 1 1 + 12
donde 1 = 1 + 2 ; 1 = 1 1 ; 2 = 12
1 = Vector suma de filas de las cuentas endgenas

(ingresos endgenos)

endgenas
Vector unitario
2 =
Vector suma de filas de la matriz 12
1 =
3 = 3 1 + 22

(4)
donde 3 = 3 + 4 ; 3 = 3 1 ; 4 = 22
3 = Vector suma de filas de las cuentas exgenas

(ingresos exgenos)

(ingresos endgenos)
3 =
4 =

34
(5)
1 = 1
donde 1 = 1 + 3 1 ; = 1 + 3
1 = Vector suma de filas transpuesto de las cuentas

endgenas (gastos endgenos)
Vector unitario transpuesto

(ingresos endgenos)

3 = 12 + 22 ;
(6)
)
= (22 22
donde 3 1 12

exgenas (gastos exgenos)

endgenas


(ingresos endgenos)
12
= Matriz transpuesta de inyecciones desde cuentas
exgenas hacia endgenas
Vector unitario
22
= Matriz transpuesta de transacciones entre cuentas
exgenas
(7)
3 1 = 12
;
donde = 3 ; 1 = 2 ; 2 = 12

35

(ingresos endgenos)
= Matriz transpuesta de inyecciones desde cuentas

12
exgenas hacia endgenas
Vector unitario
= Vector suma de filas transpuesto de propensiones

medias de filtracin
Vector suma de filas transpuesto de la matriz 12
2 =
Con el objeto de simplificar, se presenta el modelo de manera

esquemtica 24, como se ilustra a continuacin:
Gastos
Cuentas
Ingresos
Cuentas
Totales
Endgenas
Exgenas
Endgenas
11 = 1 1 (1)
12
1 = 1 1 + 12 (3)
Exgenas
21 = 3 1 (2)
22
3 = 3 1 + 22 (4)
1 = 1 (5)
3 = 12 + 22 (6)
3 1 = 12
(7)
Totales
De tal forma que si se considera la ecuacin (3) 1 = 1 1 + 12 y se
despeja para 1
1 1 1 = 12
1 1 = 12
1
1 = 1 12
24
25
Vase Pyatt y Round (1979) y Defourny & Thorbecke (1994).

1
Siempre y cuando 1 exista.
(8)25
36
donde
1 = Vector suma de filas de las cuentas endgenas (ingresos
endgenos)

endgenas
Vector unitario
Matriz identidad
= Matriz de multiplicadores contables
1 = 12
(8)26
Ahora bien, si al relacionar la matriz de multiplicadores contables con la

matriz de propensiones medias de filtracin, se obtiene la siguiente
relacin:
donde
3 1 = 3 12 = 3
(9)
1 = Vector suma de filas de las cuentas endgenas (ingresos

endgenos)

endgenas
3 =
Vector unitario
Adicionalmente, se puede sealar que la vinculacin entre las

inyecciones exgenas y las filtraciones endgenas a partir de su relacin
26
La matriz de multiplicadores contables relaciona los ingresos endgenos 1 con las inyecciones
exgenas 12
37
con los multiplicadores contables, cumple el requisito de que cada

inyeccin, en ltima instancia, corresponde a una o ms filtraciones.
Formalmente tenemos:
3 = =
(9)
Como se cit en el captulo anterior, el gobierno, el resto del mundo y

las cuentas de capital suelen tratarse como exgenos, y los factores de
la produccin, los sector institucionales diferentes del gobierno y las
cuentas de produccin, como endgenas. Sin embargo, con base en
los objetivos que persiga el anlisis en cuestin, es posible manejar como
endgenas 27 las cuentas de capital no asociadas al gobierno y al resto
del mundo.
El enfoque de Gosh.
Hasta ahora se ha visto el origen de los multiplicadores desde una
perspectiva tradicional, la del modelo de Leontief, que aborda la
estructura de los multiplicadores desde la ptica de la demanda.
Alternativamente, existen modelos que parten de un enfoque de oferta,
donde el ms representativo es el modelo de Gosh.
En este modelo se parte, no de los coeficientes tcnicos o propensiones
marginales al gasto, sino de la construccin de una matriz de dispersin
de los ingresos, en la que se muestra, de manera normalizada, la
estructura de los usos que se le pueden asignar a cada uno de los
ingresos (productos) dentro del modelo.
27
Vase Pyatt y Round (1979).
38
En ese sentido y considerando los elementos del punto anterior, se

establece
entonces,
el
modelo
de
la
SAM
con
la
siguiente
especificacin:
Redefiniendo la ecuacin (1) en trminos de la matriz de dispersiones
medias al gasto endgeno se obtiene:
(14)
11 = 1 1
donde 1 = 1
11
1
1 = Matriz de dispersiones medias del ingreso endgeno

(ingresos endgenos)
1
1
Procediendo de la misma forma con la ecuacin (2), se tiene:

(15)
21 = 1 3 ;
donde 3 = 1
21
1

exgenas
3 = Matriz de dispersiones medias de filtracin

(ingresos endgenos)
1
1
39
Por ltimo si se considera la misma condicin con la ecuacin (5), se

tiene:
(16)
1 = 1 1 + 21
donde 1 = 1 + 3 ; 1 = 1 1 ; 3 = 21

1 = Matriz de dispersiones medias del ingreso endgeno

exgenas
3 =
1 =
Si se considera la ecuacin (16) de la siguiente forma
(16a)
1 = 1 1 + 3
al despejar para 1
1 1 1 = 3
1 1 = 3
1 = 3 1
donde
ys 1 = Vector
suma
de
filas
transpuesto
(17)28
de
las
cuentas
endgenas (gastos endgenos)
Es1 = Matriz de dispersiones medias del gasto endgeno

28
s3 =
Vector suma de filas de la matriz S21

1
Siempre y cuando I Es1
exista.
40
Matriz identidad

1 = s3
(17)29
Descomposicin multiplicativa. 30
Para mayor claridad y por fines didcticos, se utilizar slo el enfoque
de Leontief para desarrollar esta seccin; sin embargo es necesario
sealar
que
el
proceso
de
descomposicin
no
se
altera,
independientemente del enfoque utilizado.

Para completar la construccin del modelo SAM es necesario
descomponer la matriz de transacciones entre cuentas endgenas de
la siguiente manera:
11 = 11
21
12
22
donde
11 = Matriz de transacciones interindustriales
12 = Matriz de gastos de demanda final
21 = Matriz de los insumos de valor agregado
22 = Matriz de la distribucin del ingreso institucional

29
La matriz de multiplicadores contables relaciona los ingresos endgenos 1 con filtraciones desde
cuentas endgenas hacia exgenas s3
30
El anlisis de multiplicadores para una SAM se deriva del enfoque de la inversa de Leontief; sin
embargo es posible su aplicacin desde la perspectiva de Gosh. Para una descripcin detallada de la
inversa de Leontief, vase Miller y Blair (2009); Ten Raa (2006); Leontief (1986); y, Stone (1969) y (1985).
Para ms referencias acerca del modelo de Gosh, vase Miller y Blair (2009).
41
Ahora bien, dado que 11 es una matriz cuadrada componente de la
matriz , y dado que se defini a esta ltima, en el captulo anterior,
como una matriz cuadrada y simtrica, es claro que las sumas de las
filas y columnas de son idnticas, por lo que se denotan mediante el
vector 1 y 1 , respectivamente 31, tal que 1 = 1 .
Al normalizar 11 con base en 1 , a partir de la ecuacin (1), de tal
forma que 1 = 11 1
, entonces se tiene:
1
1 =
11
21
12
22
donde
1
= Matriz
1
diagonal
11 = Matriz
de
inversa
de
totales
de
las
cuentas

propensiones
medias
de
transacciones
interindustriales
12 = Matriz de propensiones medias de gastos de demanda

final
21 = Matriz de propensiones medias de los insumos de valor

agregado
22 = Matriz de propensiones medias de la distribucin del

ingreso institucional
Considerando entonces la matriz de propensiones medias al gasto

endgeno, es posible descomponerla como una suma de matrices
31
Vectores definidos mediante las ecuacin (3) y (5).
42
1 = 1 + 1 , donde
1 =
11
0
1 =
11
0
22
0
0
+
22
21
1 =
0
21
12
12
= 11
0
21
12
22
De tal forma que, al retomar la ecuacin (3) 1 = 1 1 + 12 , al

considerar 2 = 12 , sustituir 1 y despejar para 1 , se obtiene:
1 = 1 + 1 1 + 2
1 = 1 1 + 1 1 + 2
1
1 = 1 1 1 + 1 2
1
dado que 1 = 1 1 , entonces:

1
1 = 1 1 + 1 2
(10)
multiplicando por 1 32 en los trminos de ambos lados de la ecuacin

(10)
1 1 = 1 1 1 + 1 2
(10)
y despejando 1 1 de la misma ecuacin (10) se obtiene:

32
Ds1 puede estar elevado a una potencia , con lo que el modelo se convierte en un proceso iterativo
en el que se pueden aadir los efectos de ciclos completos. De acuerdo con Pyatt y Round (1979), al
utilizar = 3 ocurre un ciclo completo, de tal forma que al utilizar mltiplos de 3 para se incluiran
varios ciclos completos; sin embargo con cada ciclo se incorporara menos informacin al proceso. Para
efectos explicativos, se ocupa k=1, ya que el objetivo de este punto slo es entender el proceso de
descomposicin.
43
1 1 = 1 1 2
(10)
al sustituir (10b) en el lado izquierdo de la ecuacin (10a) y despejar

para 1 , obtenemos:
1
1 11 2 = 1 1 1 + 11 2
1
1 = 1 1 1 + 11 2 + 11 2
1
1 = 21 1 + 1 11 2 + 11 2
1
1 = 21 1 + 11 2
donde
21
= 1 1 1 1
1
= 3
1 + = 1 1 + = 2
1
= 1
de tal forma que:

1 = 3 2 1 2 = 2
= 3 2 1
(11)
(12)
donde
1 = Matriz de multiplicadores de los efectos directos 33
2 = Matriz de multiplicadores de los efectos cruzados 34 o de

filtracin
33
Los efectos directos son los que un determinado grupo de cuentas tiene sobre l mismo, como
consecuencia de las transferencias internas que en l se establecen.
44
3 = Matriz
de
multiplicadores
de
los
efectos
de
interdependencia circular35 o de retroalimentacin
Considerando bajo la forma matricial:
1 = 1
0
=
11
0
0
( 11 )1
0 1
=
22
0
( 11 )1
1
2 = 1 1 + =
0
0
=
( 22 )1 21
( 22 )1 21
1
0
0
1
21
( 22 )
=
0
=
0
0
( 22 )1 21
( 11 )1 12
( 11 )1 12
0
( 22 )1 21
0
( 11 )1 12 ( 22 )1 21
0
( ( 11 )1 12 ( 22 )1 21 )1
0
Descomposicin aditiva. 36
12
0
+
=
0
0
( 11 )1 12
0
+
=
0
0
3 = 1 1 1 1
=
0
( 22 )1
( 11 )1 12
1
( 22 ) 21 ( 11 )1 12
( ( 22
)1
21 ( 11 )1 12 )1
Retomando la ecuacin (12) = 3 2 1 , se pueden establecer las
siguientes propiedades:
34
Los efectos cruzados son los que las cuentas pertenecientes a un grupo tienen sobre las cuentas de los
grupos restantes, sin considerar los efectos circulares.
35
Los efectos derivados de la interdependencia circular entre las cuentas, suceden cuando se realiza un
ciclo completo del sistema, volviendo al punto de origen y sucedindose ciclos completos.
36
Pueden encontrarse diferentes procedimientos de descomposicin de los multiplicadores contables,
dependiendo, por ejemplo, de las cuentas tomadas como endgenas en el modelo. Sin embargo, los
multiplicadores aditivos fueron propuestos por primera vez por Stone y desarrollados, ms
ampliamente, de manera posterior por Pyatt y Round. Vase Miller y Blair (2009); Pyatt y Round (1979);
y, Stone (1969) y (1985).
45
3 2 = 2 3 3 2 1 = 2 3 1
2 1 = 2 1 ; 1 = 1 ; =
de tal forma que es posible construir la siguiente igualdad:

3 2 1 2 1 + 1 = 1 + 2 3 1 2 1
3 2 1 = + 1 + 2 1 1 + 3 2 1 2 1
3 2 1 = + (1 ) + (2 )1 + (3 )2 1
(13)
= + 1 + 2 + 3
donde
Matriz Identidad 37
1 = Matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias

directas


2.2. Los encadenamientos

Desde la perspectiva del anlisis estructural, bajo un enfoque del
modelo de insumo-producto, se acu la idea de los encadenamientos,
que se basa en los vnculos o interdependencia que guardan entre s los
distintos
sectores
que
conforman
una
economa38.
Dada
esta
interdependencia, un aumento de la produccin de un sector,

37
38
Recoge los efectos de la inyeccin inicial.

Vase Rasmussen (1963) y Hirschman (1964).
46
desencadena una mayor demanda de insumos, que a su vez conduce

a un aumento en la produccin de los sectores que los producen,
provocando los consiguientes efectos circulares sobre todo el sistema,
incluyendo la produccin del sector en el que se inici el proceso.
Es evidente que el modelo de insumo-producto, al cuantificar las
relaciones circulares de intercambio entre sectores, tanto oferentes
como demandantes de insumos intermedios, permite identificar aquellos
sectores cuya importancia relativa en tales interdependencias es
relevante. La idea central de este tipo de enfoque es que no todas las
actividades econmicas tienen la misma capacidad de inducir
impactos multiplicadores sobre otras.
De tal forma que la produccin de un sector particular en la economa
tiene dos tipos de efectos econmicos 39. Por un lado, si un sector
incrementa su produccin provocar un efecto que ampliar la
demanda en los sectores que producen los insumos que ese sector
requiere, este tipo de vnculo es denominado encadenamiento hacia
atrs. Por otra parte, si un incremento de la produccin de un sector
implicara el incremento en la oferta de suministros que son usados como
insumos por otros sectores, a este tipo de vnculo se le denomina
encadenamiento hacia adelante.
Comprender estas relaciones ayuda a tener una visin global y a la vez
diversificada de la economa que se est analizando. El anlisis
estructural ayuda a determinar qu sectores, segn sus distintos
encadenamientos con el resto, son claves o vitales en una economa, o
cules son independientes o menos importantes.
39
Vase Miller y Blair (2009).
47
Con el fin de comprender la importancia que tiene un sector y el origen

de su clasificacin, se considera el siguiente esquema 40:
Encadenamientos
> 1
< 1
> 1
< 1
Sectores Clave
Sectores Estratgicos
Sectores Impulsores
Sectores Independientes
donde
= encadenamientos hacia adelante
= encadenamientos hacia atrs
De acuerdo con la clasificacin anterior, los sectores se consideran

clave cuando demandan y ofrecen, en trminos relativos 41, grandes
cantidades de insumos intermedios, por lo que son una parte importante
en las interrelaciones de las actividades de toda la economa.
Los sectores se clasifican como estratgicos cuando presentan una baja
demanda de insumos y en contraste muestran una alta oferta de los
mismos al
sistema. En este sentido, su produccin se destina
preferentemente a un uso intermedio; es decir, son insumo que sirven a

otros sectores.
Los
sectores
impulsores
son
grandes
demandantes
de
insumos
intermedios y, dada la capacidad que tienen de inducir otras

actividades, pueden afectar en mayor cuanta al crecimiento global de
la misma; sin embargo, son sectores que ofertan poco, pero que
demandan ms en trminos relativos que el resto.
Por ltimo, los sectores independientes son aquellos que presentan
encadenamientos hacia adelante y hacia atrs por debajo de la
media, no afectando por tanto, al desarrollo de otras actividades.
40
41
Elaboracin propia con base en Rasmussen (1963) y Hirschman (1964).

Con respecto al promedio normalizado.
48
Es importante destacar que la existencia de multiplicadores de gran

magnitud, no es lo mismo que grandes impactos multiplicadores, ya que
los impactos dependen tanto del valor de los multiplicadores como de
la magnitud de los estmulos externos que originan el potencial efecto
multiplicador.
Es
por
esta
razn
que
la
utilizacin
de
multiplicadores
encadenamientos conlleva la crtica de que su uso no toma en

consideracin los volmenes de produccin de cada sector. Para
obtener un indicador de arrastre efectivo y no slo potencial, es
necesario valorar el peso que el sector tiene respecto de toda la
actividad econmica. As, los encadenamientos permiten sealar
aquellos sectores con mayor potencial de arrastre, sectores que pueden
actuar como locomotoras del resto de la economa, porque a ellos
estn enganchados muchos otros sectores.
Por ltimo, un punto importante es que aunque la metodologa
propuesta por Rasmussen-Hirschman para la clasificacin de los
encadenamientos y el anlisis estructural que se deriva de ella, est
basado en los multiplicadores establecidos en el modelo de insumoproducto, es posible su aplicacin en los multiplicadores construidos a
partir de la SAM, considerando tambin los resultantes de las
descomposiciones de Stone.
Solamente es preciso estar conscientes de que las relaciones que se
presentan en la SAM, no solamente se refieren a las interindustriales, sino
tambin a las que se originan entre la generacin, asignacin y
utilizacin del ingreso, as como de las que se forman en otras cuentas
(capital y resto del mundo), dependiendo si se considera endgenas o
no a partir de la definicin del modelo.
49
Encadenamientos hacia atrs 42

A partir de los multiplicadores construidos en el punto anterior,
Rasmussen, define el poder de dispersin de una cuenta endgena ,
como el encadenamiento normalizado hacia atrs, es decir la medida

del estmulo promedio de una cuenta endgena hacia el resto de las
cuentas, resultante de un incremento unitario en las cuentas exgenas
que influyen en esa cuenta endgena j, sobre la medida promedio de

los estmulos para toda la economa, resultante de una inyeccin
exgena
proveniente
de
todos
las
cuentas
exgenas.
Matemticamente esto significa calcular:
=
donde
1

2 =1
= matriz de multiplicadores contables
= nmero de cuentas de la matriz

= -simo elemento de la matriz Ma
mide, en trminos relativos, el estmulo potencial sobre toda la
economa de un incremento unitario en las cuentas exgenas de la

cuenta endgena . Si > 1, el estmulo es superior al promedio e
inferior si < 1. Esto permite comparar con la misma base a todas las
cuentas endgenas.
La desventaja de este indicador, es que no da informacin sobre cmo

los impactos se dispersan sobre toda la economa ms all de
comparaciones promedio y, adems, supone que los impactos se
dispersan uniformemente a travs de ella. Para evaluar cmo los
42
Rasmussen los denomina ndices del poder de dispersin.
50
impactos producidos por una cuenta endgena se dispersan en la

economa, se pueden utilizar los coeficientes de variacin. As el
impacto de la cuenta -sima puede definirse como:
donde
2
1 1
1 =1
=1
=
1
=1
= coeficientes de variacin de los encadenamientos hacia atrs

Este nuevo indicador muestra cmo el impacto de un incremento

unitario, en las cuentas exgenas de la cuenta -sima, se dispersa a
travs de la economa. El ndice es til
para comparaciones
intercuentas. Un valor grande de indica que la cuenta endgena j
gasta en unas pocas cuentas endgenas de la economa y viceversa.
Cuanto ms bajo es su valor, mayor ser el impacto de la variacin en

su total, dado que se dispersa entre muchas cuentas y la concentracin
se ve reducida. El indicador muestra en qu medida la cuenta pesa
uniformemente sobre el sistema econmico.
Encadenamientos hacia adelante 43
Rasmussen considera el indicador de encadenamiento hacia adelante
de forma algo similar a lo que se estableci en los encadenamientos
hacia atrs, desarrollando lo que se define como sensibilidad de la
dispersin:
43
Rasmussen los denomina ndices de la sensibilidad de dispersin.
51
=
donde
1

2 =1

mide, en trminos relativos, el estmulo potencial de un crecimiento

unitario de toda la economa sobre las cuentas exgenas de la cuenta
endgena i. Como antes, si Ui > 1, el estmulo es superior al promedio e
inferior si Ui < 1. La palabra sensibilidad es apropiada, pues el ndice

mide cun sensible es un sector a cambios generales de las cuentas
exgenas, y provee informacin til para saber cul cuenta es ms

sensible a cambios dados por choques en trminos del total de las
cuentas endgenas.
Como antes, en este caso, es posible calcular tambin el coeficiente de
variacin para el encadenamiento hacia adelante:
2
1 1
=1
1 =1
=
1
=1
= coeficientes de variacin de los encadenamientos hacia adelante

Un valor grande de Vi implica que la cuenta endgena , ofrece a unas
pocas cuentas endgenas en la economa y viceversa. El indicador
52
muestra en qu medida el sistema econmico influye en la cuenta

endgena .
Clasificacin de las cuentas en la SAM

Tal y como se analiz al inicio de este punto, las cuentas endgenas
con altos encadenamientos hacia atrs y adelante son consideradas

cuentas clave, pues al ser fuertes demandantes y oferentes, son cuentas
de paso obligado de los flujos intraendgenos.
Las cuentas endgenas denominadas como estratgicas, poseen baja
demanda de recursos de las dems cuentas endgenas, pero
abastecen sustantivamente de recursos a otras. La denominacin de
cuentas estratgicas apunta al hecho de que son cuentas endgenas
que pueden constituir posibles cuellos de botella en el flujo de los
recursos, frente a choques provenientes de las cuentas exgenas.
Las cuentas impulsoras o de fuerte arrastre, con bajos encadenamientos
hacia delante y altos hacia atrs, son cuentas endgenas impulsoras de
la economa, pues suelen poseer gastos elevados y una oferta de
recursos que, mayoritariamente, abastecen al resto de las cuentas
endgenas. Por ello pertenecen a la ltima fase del flujo intraendgeno.
Las cuentas consideradas como independientes consumen una
cantidad poco significativa de recursos de las dems cuentas
endgenas y dedican sus recursos a satisfacer, principalmente, a las
cuentas exgenas. Se trata de cuentas endgenas aisladas, que no
provocan efectos de arrastre significativos en el sistema econmico, ni
reaccionan en forma relevante ante el efecto de arrastre provocado
por las variaciones en los recursos de otras cuentas endgenas.
Por ltimo, es tambin importante verificar la magnitud de los
coeficientes
de
variacin
para
constatar
si
hay
alta
baja
concentracin en la oferta y/o demanda de los recursos de las cuentas

53
endgenas en cuestin, y ver el efecto de dispersin que ejerce sobre la

economa en su conjunto.
2.3. La vinculacin entre cuentas
Tomando como base el trabajo realizado por Blancas (2006), se puede
establecer la vinculacin que existe entre grupos o conjuntos de
cuentas que, debido a las especificaciones desarrolladas hasta ahora
para el modelo SAM, es conveniente tambin considerar dos grupos de
cuentas endgenas.
Partiendo de la descomposicin de la matriz de cuentas endgenas se
define de forma similar a la matriz de multiplicadores de la siguiente
forma:
11
=
21
12
22
donde
11 = matriz multiplicadores contables interindustriales
12 = matriz multiplicadores contables de demanda final
21 = matriz multiplicadores contables de valor agregado
22 = matriz multiplicadores contables del ingreso institucional

Al conformar por lo tanto a 1 y a 2 como esos dos grupos de cuentas,
de tal forma que:
1 = 11 , 1 2 = 12 , 2 1 = 21 y 2 = 22
Entonces, si se considera a la i-sima cuenta que pertenece a 1 , de tal
forma que su encadenamiento hacia atrs este dado por:

=
1
1
54
donde
= multiplicador neto promedio en 1
1 = cardinalidad de 1

de manera similar su encadenamiento hacia adelante est dado por:

=
donde
1
1

= multiplicador neto promedio en 1
1 = cardinalidad de 1

Este mismo procedimiento, por simetra, es posible aplicarlo de manera

idntica a las cuentas que conforman a 2 .
Estas mediciones de los encadenamientos hacia atrs y hacia adelante,

son un caso particular de los encadenamientos hacia atrs y hacia
adelante entre las cuentas individuales que se describieron en el punto
anterior. De igual forma, como se coment, este procedimiento es
posible aplicarlo a las matrices de multiplicadores resultantes de la
descomposicin aditiva.
Adicionalmente, es necesario formular una medida sinttica directa que
represente los encadenamientos hacia adelante y hacia atrs entre 1 y

2 , se puede obtener tomando los promedios de la siguiente forma:
55
(1 , 2 ) =
(1 , 2 ) =
2
2
2
2
mediante la sustitucin de las definiciones de y , respectivamente,
se obtiene:
2 1
1
2 1
(1 , 2 ) =
=
2
1 2
2 1
1
2 1
=
(1 , 2 ) =
2
1 2
Se debe tomar en cuenta que (1 , 2 ) y (1 , 2 ) son los ndices
tradicionales de Rasmussen y que adems (1 , 2 ) (2 , 1 ),

(1 , 2 ) (2 , 1 ), (1 , 2 ) (1 , 2 ) y (2 , 1 ) (2 , 1 ).
De tal forma que (1 , 2 ) es el multiplicador promedio de la submatriz
del valor agregado dividido por el multiplicador promedio de la
submatriz de las cuentas interindustriales. De la misma manera, (1 , 2 )

es igual al multiplicador promedio de la submatriz de demanda final
entre el multiplicador promedio de la submatriz de las cuentas
interindustriales.
Por consiguiente, (2 , 1 ) es el multiplicador promedio de la submatriz
de la demanda final dividido por el multiplicador promedio de la

submatriz del ingreso institucional. De igual forma, (2 , 1 ) es igual al
multiplicador promedio de la submatriz del valor agregado entre el
multiplicador promedio de la submatriz del ingreso institucional.
Est
establecido
que
la
matriz
de
multiplicadores
puede
ser
reemplazada por la de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias

56
directas, por la de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias

cruzadas o de filtracin, o por la de efectos netos del multiplicador de
transferencias circulares o de retroalimentacin.
Sin embargo, se est utilizando la matriz interinstitucional de efectos
netos del multiplicador de transferencias directas, resulta (1 , 2 ) =
(1 , 2 ) = (2 , 1 ) = (2 , 1 ) = 0.
Consecuentemente,
toda
la
informacin de los vnculos est contenida en las matrices de efectos

netos del multiplicador de transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin, y la de
efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias circulares o de
retroalimentacin.
57
Captulo III. La Matriz de Contabilidad Social de Mxico 2003

3.1. Composicin
Las cuentas.
De acuerdo con lo expresado en el captulo I, la composicin de la SAM
de Mxico 2003 se establece a partir de cuentas corrientes y cuentas de
capital.
Dentro de las cuentas corrientes se construyeron siete:
Cuenta de bienes y servicios
Cuenta de produccin
Cuenta de generacin del ingreso
Cuenta de asignacin del ingreso primario
Cuenta de distribucin secundaria del ingreso
Cuenta de utilizacin del ingreso
Cuenta del resto del mundo, transacciones corrientes
En el caso de las cuentas de capital, se elaboraron cuatro, a saber:
Cuenta de capital
Cuenta de formacin bruta de capital fijo
Cuenta financiera
Cuenta del resto del mundo, transacciones de capital
58
Para la desagregacin de los componentes de las cuentas de bienes y

servicios, de produccin y de formacin bruta de capital fijo, se
consideraron grupos de productos para la primera y actividades
econmicas para las otras dos, codificando estas dos desagregaciones
de acuerdo con el Sistema de Clasificacin Industrial de Amrica del
Norte 2002 44 (SCIAN 2002), se consideran cuatro subsectores para el
sector financiero y diecinueve sectores para el resto de las actividades
econmicas o grupo de productos, queda dimensionado de la
siguiente forma:
11
Agricultura, ganadera, aprovechamiento forestal, pesca y

caza
21
Minera
22
Electricidad, agua y suministro de

consumidor final
23
Construccin
31-33
Industrias manufactureras
43-46
Comercio
48
Transportes
49
Correos y almacenamiento
51
Informacin en medios masivos
521
Banca central
522
Instituciones de intermediacin crediticia y financiera no

burstil
gas por ductos al
44
El Sistema de Clasificacin Industrial de Amrica del Norte (SCIAN) fue desarrollado para generar
estadsticas comparables entre los tres pases de Amrica del Norte, en un trabajo conjunto de sus
dependencias gubernamentales de estadstica: Statistics Canada, el Economic Classification Policy
Commitee (en nombre de la Oficina de Administracin y Presupuesto de Estados Unidos) y, por parte de
Mxico, el Instituto Nacional de Estadstica y Geografa (INEGI).
59
523
Actividades burstiles, cambiarias y de inversin financiera
524
Compaas de fianzas, seguros y pensiones
53
Servicios inmobiliarios y de alquiler de bienes muebles e

intangibles
54
Servicios profesionales, cientficos y tcnicos
55
Direccin de corporativos y empresas
56
Servicios de apoyo a los negocios y manejo de desechos y

servicios de remediacin
61
Servicios educativos
62
Servicios de salud y de asistencia social
71
Servicios de esparcimiento, culturales y deportivos, y otros

servicios recreativos
72
Servicios de alojamiento temporal y de preparacin de

alimentos y bebidas
81
Otros servicios excepto actividades del Gobierno
93
Actividades del Gobierno y de organismos internacionales y

extraterritoriales
Adicionalmente en la cuenta de bienes y servicios se desagrega una

cuenta ms, que corresponde a las compras netas de residentes y no
residentes, la cual representa el saldo de las compras directas que
realizan residentes nacionales fuera de nuestro territorio, menos las
compras que realizan no residentes dentro del territorio nacional.
En el caso de las cuentas de la asignacin primaria del ingreso, la
distribucin secundaria del ingreso, la utilizacin del ingreso y la de
capital, se desagregaron de acuerdo con cuatro de los sectores
60
institucionales establecidos en el Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales de

Mxico, considerando:
Los hogares 45
El gobierno general
Las sociedades no financieras
Las sociedades financieras
Para la cuenta de generacin del ingreso, la desagregacin adems

de considerar los cuatro sectores institucionales detallados en el prrafo
anterior, se establecen las siguientes categoras del ingreso primario:
Hogares
o Sueldos y salarios
o Contribuciones sociales efectivas de los empleadores
o Contribuciones sociales imputadas de los empleadores
Gobierno General
o Otros impuestos sobre la produccin
o Otros subsidios a la produccin
Sociedades no financieras
o Excedente Neto de Operacin
o Ingreso Mixto Bruto
Sociedades financieras
o Excedente Neto de Operacin
o Ingreso Mixto Bruto
45
Incluye a las instituciones privadas sin fines de lucro al servicio de los hogares.
61
Pasando ahora a la cuenta financiera, sta se desagrega de acuerdo

con los siguientes instrumentos financieros:
Oro Monetario y DEG
Dinero legal
Depsitos transferibles
Otros depsitos
Valores de deuda a corto plazo
Valores de deuda a largo plazo
Prstamos a corto plazo
Prstamos a largo plazo
Acciones
Participaciones/unidades en fondos de inversin
Reservas tcnicas de seguros no de vida
Seguros de vida y derechos por anualidades
Derechos de pensiones y a beneficios no de pensiones
Derivados financieros
Crditos y anticipos comerciales
Otras cuentas por cobrar/pagar, excepto crditos y anticipos

comerciales
Por ltimo, queda la cuenta del resto del mundo, la cual solamente se
divide entre sus transacciones corrientes y las de capital.
62
A continuacin se muestra la descripcin de las cuentas de la SAM de

Mxico 2003 46 en su versin agregada 47 y en su forma desagregada 48,
ambas versiones para la composicin de cada una de sus cuentas.
1. Cuenta de bienes y servicios.
a) Oferta
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Produccin
Asignacin
primaria del
ingreso
Agregada
Valor bruto de la
produccin a precios
bsicos 49
Impuestos sobre los
productos netos de
subsidios
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
Actividades
econmicas
Grupos de productos
Sectores institucionales Grupos de productos
Transacciones Importacin de bienes No aplica

corrientes de y servicios valorada
la cuenta del CIF 50
resto del
mundo
Grupos de productos
b) Demanda
Cruce con la
cuenta
Versin
Agregada
Desagregada
Filas
Produccin
Consumo intermedio a Grupos de productos
precios de
comprador 51
Utilizacin del Consumo final
Grupos de productos
ingreso
efectivo a precios de
comprador
Columnas
Actividades
econmicas
Sectores institucionales
46
Para ms detalle vase el Anexo 1.

48
49
La valoracin a precios bsicos, es aquella en la que en el valor de los bienes y servicios, se contabiliza
sin considerar los impuestos sobre los productos netos de subsidios, los mrgenes de comercio y de
transporte.
50
De las siglas en ingls de Cost, Insurance and Freight (costo, seguro y flete).
51
La valoracin a precios de comprador, es aquella en la que en el valor de los bienes y servicios, se
contabiliza considerando los impuestos sobre los productos netos de subsidios y los mrgenes de
comercio y de transporte.
47
63
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Agregada
Capital
Variacin de
existencias
Formacin
bruta de
capital fijo
Formacin bruta de
capital fijo a precios
de comprador
Transacciones Exportacin de bienes

corrientes de y servicios valorada
la cuenta del FOB 52
resto del
mundo
Desagregada
Filas
Grupos de productos
Columnas
Grupos de productos
Actividades
econmicas
Grupos de productos
No aplica
2. Cuenta de produccin.
a) Oferta
Cruce con la
cuenta
Versin
Desagregada
Agregada
Columnas
Bienes y
servicios
Filas
Consumo intermedio a Grupos de productos
precios de comprador
Generacin
del ingreso
Valor agregado
neto 53
Categoras del ingreso Actividades

primario por sector
econmicas
institucional
Formacin
bruta de
capital fijo
Consumo de capital
fijo
Actividades
econmicas
Actividades
econmicas
Actividades
econmicas
b) Demanda
Cruce con la
cuenta
Bienes y
servicios
Versin
Agregada
Valor bruto de la
produccin a precios
bsicos
Desagregada
Filas
Actividades
econmicas
Columnas
Grupos de productos
3. Cuenta de generacin del ingreso.

a) Oferta
52
53
De las siglas en ingls de Free on Board (libre a bordo).

Se considera neto debido a que no se incluye el consumo de capital fijo.
64
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Asignacin
del ingreso
primario
Agregada
Generacin del
ingreso neto
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
Sectores institucionales Categoras del ingreso
primario por sector
institucional
b) Demanda
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Agregada
Produccin
Valor agregado neto
Transacciones
corrientes de
la cuenta del
resto del
mundo
Saldo entre las

remuneraciones
pagadas menos las
recibas del resto del
mundo
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
Categoras del ingreso Actividades
primario por sector
econmicas
institucional
Categoras del ingreso No aplica
primario por sector
institucional
4. Cuenta de asignacin primaria del ingreso.

a) Oferta
Cruce con la
cuenta
Asignacin
del ingreso
primario
Distribucin
secundaria
del ingreso
Transacciones
corrientes de
la cuenta del
resto del
mundo
Versin
Desagregada
Agregada
Columnas
Filas
Renta de la propiedad Sectores institucionales Sectores institucionales
Ingreso nacional neto
Sectores institucionales Sectores institucionales
Rentas de la
propiedad recibidas
del resto del mundo
No aplica
b) Demanda
Cruce con la
cuenta
Bienes y
servicios
Versin
Agregada
Impuestos sobre los
productos netos de
subsidios
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
Sectores institucionales Grupos de productos
65
Cruce con la
cuenta
Generacin
del ingreso
Versin
Desagregada
Agregada
Columnas
Filas
Sectores institucionales Categoras del ingreso
primario por sector
institucional
Renta de la propiedad Sectores institucionales Sectores institucionales
Generacin del
ingreso neto
Asignacin
del ingreso
primario
Transacciones Rentas de la
corrientes de propiedad pagadas
la cuenta del del resto del mundo
resto del
mundo
Sectores institucionales No aplica
5. Cuenta de distribucin secundaria del ingreso.

a) Oferta
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Distribucin
secundaria
del ingreso
Utilizacin del
ingreso
Agregada
Transferencias
corrientes
Ingreso disponible
ajustado neto
Transacciones Transferencias
corrientes de corrientes recibidas
la cuenta del del resto del mundo
resto del
mundo
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
No aplica
b) Demanda
Cruce con la
cuenta
Asignacin
del ingreso
primario
Distribucin
secundaria
del ingreso
Transacciones
corrientes de
la cuenta del
resto del
mundo
Versin
Agregada
Ingreso nacional neto
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
Transferencias
corrientes
Transferencias
corrientes enviadas al
resto del mundo
66
6. Cuenta de utilizacin del ingreso.

a) Oferta
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Agregada
Bienes y
servicios
Consumo final
efectivo a precios de
comprador
Utilizacin del Ajuste por cambio en
ingreso
los derechos de
pensiones
Capital
Ahorro neto
Desagregada
Filas
Grupos de productos
Columnas

b) Demanda
Cruce con la
cuenta
Distribucin
secundaria
del ingreso
Utilizacin del
ingreso
Versin
Agregada
Ingreso disponible
ajustado neto
Ajuste por cambio en
los derechos de
pensiones
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
7. Cuenta de capital.
a) Oferta
Cruce con la
cuenta
Versin
Agregada
Desagregada
Filas
Grupos de productos
Columnas
Bienes y
servicios
Variacin de
existencias
Capital
Transferencias de
capital
Formacin
bruta de
capital fijo
Financiera
Formacin neta de
capital fijo
Actividades
econmicas
Adquisicin neta de
activos financieros
Instrumentos
financieros
No aplica
Transacciones Transferencias de
corrientes de capital recibidas del
la cuenta del resto del mundo
resto del
mundo
67
b) Demanda
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Agregada
Utilizacin del Ahorro neto

ingreso
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
Capital
Transferencias de
capital
Financiera
Emisin neta de
pasivos financieros
Sectores institucionales Instrumentos

financieros
Transacciones Transferencias de
corrientes de capital enviadas al
la cuenta del resto del mundo
resto del
mundo
8. Cuenta de formacin bruta de capital fijo.

a) Oferta
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Bienes y
servicios
Agregada
Formacin bruta de
capital fijo a precios
de comprador
Desagregada
Filas
Grupos de productos
Columnas
Actividades
econmicas
b) Demanda
Cruce con la
cuenta
Versin
Agregada
Desagregada
Produccin
Consumo de capital
fijo
Filas
Actividades
econmicas
Capital
Formacin neta de
capital fijo
Actividades
econmicas
Columnas
Actividades
econmicas
9. Cuenta financiera.
a) Oferta
68
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Capital
Agregada
Emisin neta de
pasivos financieros
Transacciones No aplica
de capital de
la cuenta del
resto del
mundo
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
Sectores institucionales Instrumentos
financieros
No aplica
Instrumentos
financieros
b) Demanda
Cruce con la
cuenta
Capital
Versin
Agregada
Adquisicin neta de
activos financieros
Transacciones Prstamo neto del

de capital de exterior
la cuenta del
resto del
mundo
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
Instrumentos
financieros
Instrumentos
financieros
No aplica
10. Cuenta del resto del mundo, transacciones corrientes.

a) Oferta
Cruce con la
cuenta
Bienes y
servicios
Versin
Agregada
Exportacin de bienes
y servicios valorada
FOB
Generacin
Saldo entre las
del ingreso
remuneraciones
pagadas menos las
recibas del resto del
mundo
Asignacin
Rentas de la
primaria del
propiedad pagadas
ingreso
del resto del mundo
Distribucin
Transferencias
secundaria
corrientes enviadas al
del ingreso
resto del mundo
Transacciones Saldo corriente con el
de capital de exterior
la cuenta del
resto del
mundo
Desagregada
Filas
Grupos de productos
Columnas
No aplica
Categoras del ingreso No aplica

primario por sector
institucional
No aplica
No aplica
69
b) Demanda
Cruce con la
cuenta
Bienes y
servicios
Asignacin
del ingreso
primario
Distribucin
secundaria
del ingreso
Versin
Desagregada
Agregada
Filas
Importacin de bienes No aplica
y servicios valorada
CIF
Rentas de la
No aplica
propiedad recibidas
del resto del mundo
Transferencias
No aplica
corrientes recibidas
del resto del mundo
Columnas
Grupos de productos
11. Cuenta del resto del mundo, transacciones de capital.

a) Oferta
Versin
Cruce con la
cuenta
Capital
Financiera
Agregada
Transferencias de
capital enviadas al
resto del mundo
Prstamo neto del
exterior
Desagregada
Columnas
Filas
Instrumentos
financieros
No aplica
b) Demanda
Cruce con la
cuenta
Capital
Financiera
Versin
Agregada
Transferencias de
capital recibidas del
resto del mundo
No aplica
Transacciones Saldo corriente con el

corrientes de exterior
la cuenta del
resto del
mundo
Desagregada
Filas
No aplica
Columnas
No aplica
Instrumentos
financieros
No aplica
No aplica
70
3.2. Estimacin de multiplicadores

Con base en el marco establecido en el captulo II, se parte de la SAM
desagregada 54 para determinar las variables a seleccionar como
exgenas y endgenas. De acuerdo con el propsito de esta
investigacin, se consideraran como exgenas las cuentas asociadas al
gobierno general y al resto del mundo, de tal forma que de un total de
113 cuentas, se distinguieron 9 exgenas y 104 endgenas.
Como exgenas se consideraron las cuentas 24, 51, 52, 58, 62, 66, 70, 112
y 113 55. Para el caso de las cuentas endgenas, se tomaron como tal las
siguientes: de la 1 a la 23, de la 25 a la 50, de la 53 a la 57, de la 59 a la
61, de la 63 a la 65, de la 67 a la 69, y de la 71 a la 111 56.
Es importante sealar que las cuentas de capital, que incluyen la
cuenta de capital, la cuenta de formacin bruta de capital fijo y la
cuenta financiera, se tomaron como endgenas, sin considerar la
participacin correspondiente en ellas del gobierno general y el resto
del mundo.
Las cuentas financieras endgenas, suponen un comportamiento
particular de la cartera en la estructura de la SAM, y bajo el enfoque del
multiplicador contable donde las cuentas de capital representan las
deudas interinstitucionales, implica que el supuesto de que los agentes
54

Para ms detalle vase en el Anexo 4 los renglones marcados en gris.
56
Para ms detalle vase en el Anexo 4 los renglones sin marca.
55
71
demandan flujos de activos reales y financieros en una proporcin fija

del total.
El anterior es un supuesto restrictivo para cualquier aplicacin emprica
correspondiente a una economa en particular. Sin embargo, los
multiplicadores de la cuenta financiera y los ndices de vinculacin
derivados de este enfoque, contienen importante informacin acerca
de la estructura financiera de una economa y de la trayectoria que
siguen los flujos de fondos a travs del sistema, lo cual merece ser
considerado 57. Por lo que lo anterior se estima conveniente, debido a
que se busca establecer el grado de vinculacin existente entre el
sector financiero y el sector real de la economa.
Una vez establecidas las cuentas endgenas y exgenas, se realizaron
los clculos descritos 58 en el captulo II para la obtencin de los
multiplicadores contables 59 y su posterior descomposicin multiplicativa
y aditiva, considerando los enfoques descritos: Leontief y Gosh.
Para el caso de los clculos de los multiplicadores contables desde la
ptica de Leontief, se obtuvo una matriz cuadrada con dimensin de
104 filas y columnas, que considera la totalidad de las cuentas
endgenas, derivado de la relacin de la matriz de transacciones entre
57
Vase Pyatt y Round (1979), Round (2003) y Blancas (2006).

Todos los clculos se realizaron con el software MATLAB, en su versin R2010a.
59
Es importante sealar que como la SAM que se compil contiene algunas celdas con elementos
negativos, es necesario transponer estos elementos para que ninguno sea negativo; con el objeto del
mejor entendimiento de los multiplicadores y encadenamientos, ya que un valor negativo en uno de
ellos sera un tanto complejo en su interpretacin.
58
72
cuentas endgenas y la matriz diagonal de los ingresos endgenos, a

travs de la matriz de propensiones medias al gasto endgeno 60.
En cuanto a la descomposicin de la matriz de multiplicadores
contables, como la descomposicin multiplicativa es un insumo de la
descomposicin aditiva, slo se presentar el anlisis realizado a partir
de los resultados de esta ltima 61.
Para poder realizar la descomposicin, se dividi la matriz de
transacciones entre cuentas endgenas en dos grupos, las cuentas
reales endgenas y las cuentas financieras endgenas. Como reales se
consideraron: de la 1 a la 23, de la 25 a la 50, de la 53 a la 57, de la 59 a
la 61, de la 63 a la 65, la 67 y 68; mientras que financieras son: la 69 y de
la 71 a la 111 62.
De tal forma que la matriz 11 descrita en el captulo II, se reformula de la
siguiente forma:
11 = 11
21
12
22
donde
60
El resultado de este clculo se puede observar en el Anexo 5.

La matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias directas se presenta en el Anexo 6, la
matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin se muestra en el
Anexo 7, y la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias circulares o de
retroalimentacin se exhibe en el Anexo 8.
62
Para ms detalle vase en el Anexo 4.
61
73
11 = Matriz de transacciones entre cuentas reales endgenas 63

12 = Matriz de gastos de inversin 64
21 = Matriz de ahorros 65
22 = Matriz de transacciones
endgenas 66
entre
cuentas
financieras
Ahora bien, para el caso de los clculos de los multiplicadores

contables desde la ptica de Gosh, tambin se obtuvo una matriz
cuadrada con dimensin de 104 filas y columnas, que considera la
totalidad de las cuentas endgenas, derivado de la relacin de la
matriz de transacciones entre cuentas endgenas y la matriz diagonal
de los ingresos endgenos, pero ahora tomando la matriz de
dispersiones medias del ingreso endgeno 67.
Como todos los dems clculos para la descomposicin son idnticos a
los realizados bajo el enfoque de Leontief, slo se presentara la matriz
de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias directas 68, la matriz
de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias cruzadas o de
filtracin 69,
la matriz
de
efectos
netos
del
multiplicador
de
transferencias circulares o de retroalimentacin 70.
63
Que incluye las relaciones interindustriales, los gastos de demanda final, los insumos de valor
agregado y la distribucin del ingreso institucional.
64
Que incluye la formacin bruta de capital fijo y la variacin de existencias.
65
Que incluye el ahorro neto ms el consumo de capital fijo.
66
Que incluye la formacin neta de capital fijo, as como los flujos de fondos y el resto de las
transferencias de capital.
67
El resultado de este clculo se puede observar en el Anexo 9.
68
69
70
74
3.3. Estimacin de encadenamientos

Una vez obtenidos los multiplicadores contables bajo los enfoques de
Leontief y Gosh, se aplic la metodologa Rasmussen-Hirschman descrita
en el captulo II, obteniendo los siguientes resultados:
A. Desde
la
ptica
de
Leontief
considerando la
matriz
de
multiplicadores contables o matriz de efectos netos totales:

Encadenamientos71
> 1
< 1
> 1
< 1
14 cuentas clave
7 cuentas estratgicas
4,6,7,14,28,30,31,38,48,53,
54,57,61,65
57 cuentas impulsoras
5,29,59,69,71,72,109
26 cuentas independientes
3,8,9,10,11,12,15,16,17,18, 1,2,13,26,63,67,73,74,76,77,
19,20,21,22,23,25,27,32,33, 78,81,85,87,88,89,97,99,100,
34,35,36,37,39,40,41,42,43, 101,102,103,104,106,110,111
44,45,46,47,49,50,55,56,60,
64,68,75,79,80,82,83,84,86,
90,91,92,93,94,95,96,98,10
5,107,108
Para la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias

directas:
Encadenamientos
> 1
< 1
71
> 1
< 1
17 cuentas clave
6,7,14,29,30,31,38,48,53,
54,57,59,60,61,65,72,109
5,71
1,3,4,8,9,10,11,12,13,15,16, 2,26,63,67,69,73,74,75,76,77,
17,18,19,20,21,22,23,25,27, 78,79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,
28,32,33,34,35,36,37,39,40, 87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,49,50, 99,100,101,102,104,106,110,
55,56,64,68,96,97,98,103,
111
105,107,108
Se debe recordar que = encadenamientos hacia adelante y = encadenamientos hacia atrs.
75
En el caso de la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de

transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin:
Encadenamientos
> 1
< 1
> 1
< 1
2 cuentas clave
69,71
4,5,6,7,14,28,29,30,31,38,
48,53,54,57,59,61,65,72,109
63,67,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,
80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,
89,90,91,92,93,94,95,104,1
10
1,2,3,8,9,10,11,12,13,15,16,
17,18,19,20,21,22,23,25,26,
27,32,33,34,35,36,37,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,49,50,
55,56,60,64,68,96,97,98,99,
100,101,102,103,105,106,
107,108,111
Con la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias

circulares o de retroalimentacin:
Encadenamientos
> 1
< 1
> 1
< 1
2 cuentas clave
69,71
4,5,6,7,14,28,29,30,31,38,
48,53,54,57,59,61,65,72,109
3,27,67,73,74,75,76,77,78,7 1,2,8,9,10,11,12,13,15,16,17,
9,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,8 18,19,20,21,22,23,25,26,32,3
8,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,104, 3,34,35,36,37,39,40,41,42,43,
110
44,45,46,47,49,50,55,56,60,6
3,64,68,96,97,98,99,100,101,
102,103,105,106,107,108,111
B. Ahora bajo el enfoque de Gosh y considerando la matriz de

multiplicadores contables o matriz de efectos netos totales, se tiene:
76
Encadenamientos
> 1
> 1
16 cuentas clave
4,7,14,28,30,31,38,53,54,
57,59,61,65,69,72,109
3,8,9,12,15,16,17,18,19,20,21
,22,25,27,32,33,36,37,39,40,4
1,42,43,44,45,46,49,50,55,56,
60,63,64,67,68,73,74,75,76,7
8,79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,
88,89,92,93,94,97,99,100,103
,105,107,108, 110
< 1
< 1
5,6,29,48,71
1,2,10,11,13,23,26,34,35,47,
77,90,91,95,96,98,101,102,
104,106,111
Para la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias

directas:
Encadenamientos
> 1
> 1
16 cuentas clave
6,7,14,29,30,31,38,48,53,
54,57,59,61,65,72,109
1,3,8,9,10,11,12,13,15,16,
17,18,19,20,21,22,25,27,32,3
3,34,35,36,37,39,40,41,42,43,
44,45,46,49,50,55,56,60,63,6
4,67,68,99,100,103,110
< 1
< 1
4,5,28,69,71
2,23,26,47,73,74,75,76,77,78,
79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,
88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,96,
97,98,101,102,104,105,106,
107,108,111
En el caso de la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de

transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin:
Encadenamientos
> 1
> 1
< 1
4 cuentas clave
4,28,69,71
73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,8
2,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,91,
92,93,94,97,99,105,107,108,1
10
77
Encadenamientos
< 1
> 1
< 1
5,6,7,14,29,30,31,38,48,53,
54,57,59,61,63,65,72,109
1,2,3,8,9,10,11,12,13,15,16,
17,18,19,20,21,22,23,25,26,
27,32,33,34,35,36,37,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,49,50,
55,56,60,64,67,68,95,96,98,
100,101,102,103,104,106,111
Con la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias

circulares o de retroalimentacin:
Encadenamientos
> 1
> 1
4 cuentas clave
4,28,69,71
73,74,75,76,77,78,79,80,81,8
2,83,84,85,86,87,88,89,90,91,
92,93,94,97,105,107,108
< 1
< 1
5,6,7,14,29,30,31,38,48,53,
54,57,59,61,63,65,72,109
1,2,3,8,9,10,11,12,13,15,16,
17,18,19,20,21,22,23,25,26,
27,32,33,34,35,36,37,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,47,49,50,
55,56,60,64,67,68,95,96,98,
99,100,101,102,103,104,106,
110,111
Como se puede observar hasta el momento, dependiendo del enfoque

utilizado, Leontief o Gosh, se puede tener una mayor significancia de los
encadenamientos hacia atrs o hacia adelante, con base en el nmero
de cuentas que se incluye para uno o para otro; hecho que se recalca,
adems, con la dispersin que ofrecen los valores de uno u otro
encadenamiento; como ejemplo, basta ver las grficas de los
encadenamientos resultantes de la matriz de multiplicadores contables
o matriz de efectos netos totales.
78
Enfoque Leontief
10.0
cuentas
estratgicas
5,29,59,69,71,
72,109
9.0
cuentas clave
4,6,7,14,28,30,31,
38,48,53,54,57,61,
65
8.0
7.0
6.0
cuentas
impulsoras
3,8,9,10,11,12,15,
16,17,18,19,20,21,
22,23,25,27,32,33,
34,35,36,37,39,40,
41,42,43,44,45,46,
47,49,50,55,56,60,
64,68,75,79,80,82,
83,84,86,90,91,92,
93,94,95,96,98,
105,107,108
5.0
cuentas
independientes
1,2,13,26,63,67,73,
74,76,77,78,81,85,
87,88,89,97,99,
100,101,102,103,
104,106,110,111
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.0
1.4
Enfoque Gosh
1.4
cuentas clave
4,7,14,28,30,31,
38,53,54,57,59,
61,65,69,72,109
1.2
1.0
cuentas
estratgicas
3,8,9,12,15,16,17,1
8,19,20,21,22,25,2
7,32,33,36,37,39,4
0,41,42,43,44,45,4
6,49,50,55,56,60,6
3,64,67,68,73,74,7
5,76,78,79,80,81,8
2,83,84,85,86,87,8
8,89,92,93,94,97,9
9,100,103,105,107,
108, 110
0.8
0.6
0.4
cuentas
independientes
1,2,10,11,13,23,26,
34,35,47,77,90,91,
95,96,98,101,102,
104,106,111
0.2
cuentas impulsoras
5,6,29,48,71
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Con base en la diferente representatividad de los enfoques, con la

dispersin de los encadenamientos hacia atrs y hacia adelante, se
concluye que bajo Leontief se tiene mejor representatividad de los
79
encadenamientos hacia atrs y con el de Gosh es mejor la de los

encadenamientos hacia adelante.
Para el anlisis se establecer un esquema mixto, considerando para los
encadenamientos hacia atrs a Leontief y en los encadenamientos
hacia adelante a Gosh, con el objeto de tener un mayor nmero de
cuentas no clasificadas como independientes.
Si se eligiera el criterio contrario, la representatividad de los de los
encadenamientos de acuerdo a los enfoques, provocara que la gran
mayora de cuentas fuera independiente y no se tendra informacin
distintiva para poder realizar el anlisis de vinculacin sectorial,
propsito de este trabajo.
Entonces realizando esta combinacin, se efectuaron los clculos de los
encadenamientos y sus coeficientes de variacin, incluyendo una
clasificacin binaria del tipo de encadenamiento, para la matriz de
multiplicadores contables o matriz de efectos netos totales 72, para la
que tenemos:
Encadenamientos
> 1
72
> 1
< 1
58 cuentas clave
3,4,7,8,9,12,14,15,16,17,18,
19,20,21,22,25,27,28,30,31,
32,33,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,
43,44,45,46,49,50,53,54,55,
56,57,60,61,64,65,68,75,79,
80,82,83,84,86,92,93,94,
105,107,108
59,63,67,69,72,73,74,76,78,8
1,85,87,88,89,97,99,100,
103,109,110
80
Encadenamientos
< 1
> 1
< 1
6,10,11,23,34,35,47,48,90,9 1,2,5,13,26,29,71,77,101,102,
1,95,96,98
104,106,111
Bajo los mismos trminos del prrafo anterior, se hicieron los clculos
para la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias
directas 73, proporciona la siguiente informacin:
Encadenamientos
> 1
< 1
> 1
< 1
56 cuentas clave
1,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,
15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,25,
27,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,
37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,
46,48,49,50,53,54,55,56,57,
59,60,61,64,65,68,72,103,
109
63,67,99,100,110
4,23,28,47,96,97,98,105,10
7,108
2,5,26,69,71,73,74,75,76,77,
78,79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,
87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94,95,
101,102,104,106,111
Para el caso de la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de

transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin 74, los principales resultados son:
Encadenamientos
> 1
73
74
> 1
< 1
25 cuentas clave
69,71,73,74,75,76,77,78,79,
80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,88,
89,90,91,92,93,94,110
4,28,97,99,105,107,108

81
Encadenamientos
> 1
< 1
63,67,95,104
1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,
14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,
23,25,26,27,29,30,31,32,33,
34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,
43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,53,
54,55,56,57,59,60,61,64,65,
68,72,96,98,100,101,102,103,
106,109,111
< 1
Por ltimo, y de manera similar a los anteriores, los resultados de la matriz

de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias circulares o de
retroalimentacin 75, son:
Encadenamientos
> 1
> 1
< 1
24 cuentas clave
69,71,73,74,75,76,77,78,
79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,
87,88,89,90,91,92,93,94
4,28,97,105,107,108
3,27,67,95,104,110
< 1
1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,
17,18,19,20,21,22,23,25,26,29,30,
31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,
42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,53,54,
55,56,57,59,60,61,63,64,65,68,72,
96,98,99,100,101,102,103,106,109,
111
Un aspecto importante a considerar desde este momento, es el hecho

de
que la mayor cantidad
de
cuentas
clave ocurre en los
encadenamientos de la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de

transferencias directas, con 56, conteniendo tambin la menor cantidad
de cuentas independientes, con 33.
75
82
Este hecho indica que la mayor parte de cuentas tienen un efecto

multiplicador,
principalmente
consigo
mismas.
Sin
embargo,
al
considerar el coeficiente de variacin de los encadenamientos, se

observa que slo 9 cuentas (8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 16, 27, 37, 65) 76 ofrecen una
menor concentracin y por lo tanto una mejor distribucin de los
efectos sobre el resto de las cuentas.
Por otro lado, los efectos indirectos, ya sea de filtracin o de
retroalimentacin, presentan una menor ocurrencia de cuentas clave,
25 y 24, respectivamente, as como la mayor cantidad de cuentas
independientes, con 68 ambas. Sin embargo, de acuerdo con el
coeficiente de variacin de los encadenamientos, al ser todos mayores
al promedio, indican la concentracin de los efectos slo en unas
cuantas cuentas y no de manera general para toda la economa.
Solamente para el caso de las filtraciones, hay una mejor distribucin
(coeficiente
de
variacin
menor
al
promedio)
en
los
efectos
relacionados con la oferta de la construccin, tanto en la cuenta de

bienes y servicios como en la de produccin. Mientras que en el caso
de la retroalimentacin, adems del efecto de la construccin, la
dispersin de los efectos en los gastos de la electricidad, agua y
suministro de gas por ductos al consumidor final, tanto en la cuenta de
bienes y servicios, como en la cuenta de produccin; y de la cuenta de
las sociedades no financieras que est relacionada con la cuenta de
76
83
utilizacin del ingreso, existe tambin una mejor dispersin de gastos,

debido a que los coeficientes de variacin son menores que el
promedio.
Las siguientes grficas presentan la clasificacin de las cuentas de la
matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias cruzadas o
de filtracin y de la matriz los efectos netos del multiplicador de
transferencias circulares o de retroalimentacin.
Encadenamientos de la matriz de efectos netos
del multiplicador de transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin
2.5
cuentas clave
69,71,73,74,75,
76,77,78,79,80,
81,82,83,84,85,
86,87,88,89,90,
91,92,93,94,
110
2.0
cuentas estratgicas
4,28,97,99,105,107,108
1.5
1.0
cuentas independientes
1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,
14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,
23,25,26,27,29,30,31,32,33,
34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,
43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50,53,
54,55,56,57,59,60,61,64,65,
68,72,96,98,100,101,102,
103,106,109,111
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
cuentas impulsoras
63,67,95,104
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
84

del multiplicador de transferencias circulares o de retroalimentacin
6.0
cuentas clave
69,71,73,74,75,76,
77,78,79,80,81,82,
83,84,85,86,87,88,
89,90,91,92,93,94
cuentas estratgicas
4,28,97,105,107,108
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
cuentas independientes
1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,
15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,
25,26,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,
36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,
45,46,47,48,49,50,53,54,55,
56,57,59,60,61,63,64,65,68,
72,96,98,99,100,101,102,
103,106,109,111
1.0
cuentas impulsoras
3,27,67,95,104,110
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Considerando ahora la vinculacin entre los grupos de las cuentas

reales y las cuentas de capital, tomando slo en cuenta los efectos
indirectos de filtracin y de retroalimentacin, se obtuvieron los
siguientes datos bajo el enfoque de Leontief.
Cuenta
Real
Financiero
BL
Real
0.062073
0.040078
0.645667
Financiero
0.140592
0.022247
6.319641
FL
2.264963
1.801525

Cuenta
Real
Financiero
BL
Real
0.021403
0.013211
0.617279
Financiero
0.048457
0.007665
6.322117
FL
2.264042
1.723693
85
Al observar los resultados entre la vinculacin de las cuentas reales y las

cuentas financieras, se puede establecer que los ndices de vinculacin
entre estas muestran que los efectos son un tanto aislados entre los dos
grupos de cuentas; sin embargo, bajo el enfoque de Leontief, existe un
grado marginal de vinculacin que va de los gastos de inversin a las
relaciones de las cuentas reales y de las transacciones financieras al
ahorro y a los gastos de inversin. La mayor vinculacin se presenta de
las cuentas de capital hacia ellas mismas.
Considerando ahora el enfoque Gosh para los mismo efectos.
Cuenta
Real
Financiero
BL
Real
0.054575
0.138086
2.530185
Financiero
0.032322
0.020166
1.602832
FL
0.592252
6.847529

Cuenta
Real
Financiero
BL
Real
0.018779
0.046937
2.499427
Financiero
0.011011
0.007038
1.564398
FL
0.586340
6.668659
De acuerdo con este ltimo enfoque, existe tambin un grado marginal

de vinculacin que va del ahorro a las relaciones de las cuentas reales y
de las transacciones financieras a los gastos de inversin y al ahorro. Al
igual que con el enfoque de Leontief, la mayor vinculacin se presenta
de las cuentas de capital hacia ellas mismas.
86
3.4. Anlisis de la vinculacin sectorial

Con base en los resultados que se han presentado hasta ahora, se
puede establecer como punto de partida para el anlisis, las relaciones
que se forman a travs de los efectos netos del multiplicador de
transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin, y de los efectos netos del
multiplicador de transferencias circulares o de retroalimentacin, ya que
toda la informacin relevante de los encadenamientos y vinculacin de
los encadenamientos entre el sector real y el financiero, est contenida
en estas relaciones. Adicionalmente, como se mencion, conviene
utilizar el enfoque mixto (Leontief-Gosh), con el objeto de tener una
mejor representatividad de los efectos hacia atrs y hacia adelante, sin
el sesgo de las dispersiones cruzadas al usar uno u otro enfoque.
Al considerar las relaciones de la vinculacin entre los grupos de las
cuentas reales y las cuentas de capital, se observa que es de mayor
relevancia considerar el enfoque de Leontief, ya que las relaciones
entre ellos, parten de los gastos de inversin, sin la necesidad de un
ahorro previo; as pues el proceso de inversin se sustenta en la
generacin de crdito en la interaccin de las cuentas financieras y de
capital, y en un segundo momento, por ahorro generado durante el
proceso productivo en el sector real y por las transacciones de las
cuentas financieras y de capital en el propio sector financiero.
87
Efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin.

El anlisis de la vinculacin entre grupos de cuentas es consistente con
el hecho de que las cuentas clave, son las relacionadas con la cuenta
de capital de los hogares y de las sociedades no financieras 77, que se
realizan principalmente mediante la adquisicin de activos y emisin de
pasivos financieros, y que financian los gastos de inversin, incluido el
valor de los inventarios, generando adems ahorros en los mismos
sectores institucionales y propiciando efectos sobre las cuentas del
sector real.
Tambin como clave destacan las cuentas que pertenecen a la
formacin bruta de capital fijo 78, en donde se incluye la inversin que
realizan todas las actividades productivas con excepcin de las
actividades de gobierno 79, que al igual que en el caso anterior, se
basan en la adquisicin de activos y emisin de pasivos financieros,
generando los mismos efectos sobre la inversin, el ahorro y las cuentas
del sector real.
Por ltimo, la cuenta de los crditos y anticipos comerciales 80, que
pertenece a la cuenta financiera 81, se considera como clave y
complementa los flujos descritos antes, en la forma de adquisicin de
77
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, las cuentas 69 y 71. Las cuentas de capital registran los valores de los
activos no financieros que las unidades institucionales adquieren o disponen mediante transacciones;
adems, muestra la variacin del valor neto consecuencia del ahorro y de las transferencias de capital.
78
En esta cuenta se puntualiza sobre el saldo de las adquisiciones y disposiciones de los activos no
financieros que realizan las unidades institucionales.
79
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, las cuentas de la 73 a la 94.
80
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, la cuenta 110.
81
Esta cuenta es en la cual se contabilizan todas las adquisiciones menos las disposiciones de activos
financieros, adems de la emisin de pasivos menos su reembolso.
88
activos y emisin de pasivos financieros, otorgando el financiamiento a

los hogares (productores) y a las sociedades no financieras. De tal forma
que los flujos de crdito que se consideran sustantivos en la economa
son los que otorgan instituciones distintas a las financieras (bancos
principalmente) y que ofrecen el servicio financiero como una actividad
secundaria a su giro preponderante, como es el caso del crdito que
ofrecen proveedores.
En el caso de las cuentas impulsoras, se ubica a las cuentas de las
sociedades no financieras que estn relacionadas con la cuenta de la
distribucin secundaria del ingreso y con la cuenta de utilizacin del
ingreso 82, las cuales se fondean principalmente con ahorro y se
relacionan principalmente con el resto de las cuentas reales, mediante
transferencias corrientes con el resto de los sectores institucionales.
Como impulsoras tambin se encuentra la cuenta de la formacin bruta
de capital fijo de las actividades del gobierno 83 y a las acciones como
instrumento de la cuenta financiera84. El primer caso se basa en la
adquisicin de activos financieros, generando efectos impulsores sobre
la inversin, ahorro y cuentas del sector real. En el segundo caso, es
82
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, las cuentas 63 y 67. En la cuenta de la distribucin secundaria del ingreso,
se muestra cmo se transforma el saldo de ingresos primarios en ingreso disponible mediante la
percepcin y el pago de transferencias corrientes. Mientras que la cuenta de utilizacin del ingreso tiene
como finalidad mostrar la forma en que los hogares, las unidades del gobierno y las instituciones sin
fines de lucro que sirven a los hogares reparten su ingreso disponible entre el consumo final y el ahorro.
83
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, la cuenta 95. En la cuenta de la formacin bruta de capital fijo se
puntualiza sobre el saldo de las adquisiciones y disposiciones de los activos no financieros que realizan
las unidades institucionales.
84
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, la cuenta 104. La cuenta financiera registra los valores de los activos no
financieros que las unidades institucionales adquieren o disponen mediante transacciones; adems,
muestra la variacin del valor neto consecuencia del ahorro y de las transferencias de capital.
89
directamente con la emisin de las acciones como se fondean las

actividades productivas, para la realizacin de sus gastos corrientes y
de capital.
Para el caso de las cuentas estratgicas, se ubica a la construccin,
tanto en la cuenta de bienes y servicios, como en la cuenta de
produccin 85. Estas cuentas encuentran sus recursos productivos
principalmente a travs de las cuentas financieras 86, y se introducen en
la economa por medio de los gastos de inversin que realizan los
distintos sectores institucionales en la adquisicin de infraestructura, a
travs principalmente de financiamiento del sector financiero.
El resto de cuentas estratgicas pertenecen a la cuenta financiera 87,
principalmente se encuentran en la forma de dinero legal, otros
depsitos, participaciones/unidades en fondo de inversin, seguros de
vida y derechos por anualidades, y derechos de pensiones y a
beneficios
no
de
pensiones 88.
Las
cuales
en
estricto
sentido,
proporcionan los fondos a los diferentes sectores institucionales para

poder realizar gastos corrientes y de capital, necesarios para la
reproduccin de las actividades econmicas que realizan.
85
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, las cuentas 4 y 28. En la cuenta de bienes y servicios se presenta la oferta
y utilizacin de los bienes y servicios disponibles en la economa. Mientras que en la cuenta de
produccin presenta la produccin nacional de bienes y servicios disponibles en la economa.
86
Las cuentas financieras registran los valores de los activos no financieros que las unidades
institucionales adquieren o disponen mediante transacciones; adems, muestra la variacin del valor
neto consecuencia del ahorro y de las transferencias de capital.
87
Esta cuenta registra los valores de los activos no financieros que las unidades institucionales
adquieren o disponen mediante transacciones; adems, muestra la variacin del valor neto
88
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, las cuentas 97, 99, 105, 107 y 108.
90
Efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias circulares o de

retroalimentacin.
Al igual que con el anlisis de los efectos netos del multiplicador de
transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin, es consistente el hecho de que
las cuentas clave son las relacionadas con la cuenta de capital de los
hogares y sociedades no financieras 89, que se realizan principalmente
mediante la adquisicin de activos y emisin de pasivos financieros y
financian los gastos de inversin, incluido el valor de los inventarios,
generando adems ahorros en los mismos sectores institucionales y
generando efectos sobre las cuentas del sector real.
En el mismo sentido, tambin como clave, destacan las cuentas que
pertenecen a la formacin bruta de capital fijo 90, en donde se incluye la
inversin que realizan todas las actividades productivas con excepcin
de las actividades de gobierno 91, que al igual que en el caso anterior, se
basan en la adquisicin de activos y emisin de pasivos financieros,
generando los mismos efectos sobre la inversin, el ahorro y las cuentas
del sector real.
Para el caso de las cuentas impulsoras, se ubica la electricidad, agua y
suministro de gas por ductos al consumidor final, tanto en la cuenta de
89
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, las cuentas 69 y 71. Las cuentas de capital registran los valores de los
activos no financieros que las unidades institucionales adquieren o disponen mediante transacciones;
adems, muestra la variacin del valor neto consecuencia del ahorro y de las transferencias de capital.
90
En esta cuenta se puntualiza sobre el saldo de las adquisiciones y disposiciones de los activos no
financieros que realizan las unidades institucionales.
91
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, las cuentas de la 73 a la 94.
91
bienes y servicios, como en la cuenta de produccin 92. Estas cuentas

encuentran sus recursos productivos, principalmente a travs de las
cuentas financieras 93, y se introducen como impulsores de la economa
por medio de los gastos que realiza estas cuentas de las dems, tanto
reales como financieras, a travs principalmente de financiamiento del
sector financiero.
Continuando con las cuentas impulsoras, se encuentran las sociedades
no financieras en el rubro de la cuenta de utilizacin del ingreso 94, las
cuales se fondean principalmente con ahorro y se relacionan
principalmente con el resto de las cuentas reales, a manera de
transferencias corrientes con el resto de los sectores institucionales.
Al igual que en el anlisis de los efectos netos del multiplicador de
transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin, como impulsoras tambin se
encuentra a la formacin bruta de capital fijo de las actividades del
gobierno 95 y a las acciones como instrumento de la cuenta financiera 96.
De la misma forma, para el primer caso se basa en la adquisicin de
92
93
94
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, la cuenta 67. La cuenta de utilizacin del ingreso tiene como finalidad
mostrar la forma en que los hogares, las unidades del gobierno y las instituciones sin fines de lucro que
sirven a los hogares reparten su ingreso disponible entre el consumo final y el ahorro.
95
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, la cuenta 95. En la cuenta de la formacin bruta de capital fijo se
puntualiza sobre el saldo de las adquisiciones y disposiciones de los activos no financieros que realizan
las unidades institucionales.
96
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, la cuenta 104. La cuenta financiera registra los valores de los activos no
financieros que las unidades institucionales adquieren o disponen mediante transacciones; adems,
muestra la variacin del valor neto consecuencia del ahorro y de las transferencias de capital.
92
activos financieros, generando efectos impulsores sobre la inversin,

ahorro y cuentas del sector real. Mientras que en el segundo caso,
tambin es directamente con la emisin de las acciones como se
fondean las actividades productivas, para la realizacin de sus gastos
corrientes y de capital.
De la misma forma que en el anlisis de los efectos netos del
multiplicador de transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin, la cuenta de los
crditos y anticipos comerciales 97 que pertenece a la cuenta
financiera 98, tambin se considera como impulsora y complementa los
flujos de las cuentas descritas anteriormente, en la forma de adquisicin
de activos y emisin de pasivos financieros, otorgando el financiamiento
a los hogares (productores) y a las sociedades no financieras. De tal
forma que los flujos de crdito que se consideran sustantivos en la
economa, como ya se haba comentado, son los que otorgan
instituciones distintas a las financieras (bancos principalmente) y que
ofrecen el servicio financiero como una actividad secundaria a su giro
preponderante, como es el caso del crdito que ofrecen proveedores.
Para el caso de las cuentas estratgicas, al igual que en el anlisis de los
efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias cruzadas o de
filtracin, se ubica a la construccin, tanto en la cuenta de bienes y
97
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, la cuenta 110.

Esta cuenta es en la cual se contabilizan todas las adquisiciones menos las disposiciones de activos
financieros, adems de la emisin de pasivos menos su reembolso.
98
93
servicios, como en la cuenta de produccin 99. Tambin estas cuentas

encuentran sus recursos productivos, principalmente a travs de las
cuentas financieras 100, y se introducen en la economa por medio de los
gastos de inversin que realizan los distintos sectores institucionales en la
adquisicin
de
infraestructura,
travs
principalmente
de
financiamiento del sector financiero.

El resto de cuentas estratgicas pertenecen a la cuenta financiera 101,
principalmente
se
encuentran
en
la
forma
de
dinero
legal,
participaciones/unidades en fondo de inversin, seguros de vida y

derechos por anualidades, y derechos de pensiones y a beneficios no
de pensiones 102. Las cuales, en estricto sentido, proporcionan los fondos
a los diferentes sectores institucionales para poder realizar gastos
corrientes y de capital, necesarios para la reproduccin de las
actividades econmicas que realizan.
Captulo IV. Conclusiones y recomendaciones.
Uno de los primeros elementos que vale la pena destacar, desde la
ptica del anlisis, es la utilizacin de un enfoque mixto, que permite
incorporar la mayor parte de efectos de demanda (Leontief) y oferta
99
100
101
Esta cuenta registra los valores de los activos no financieros que las unidades institucionales
adquieren o disponen mediante transacciones; adems, muestra la variacin del valor neto
102
De acuerdo con el Anexo 4, las cuentas 97, 105, 107 y 108.
94
(Gosh), contribuyendo a disminuir el sesgo que se podra tener, hacia

atrs o hacia adelante al usar uno slo de los enfoques.
Con esa ptica, aunque como se seal en su momento, todas las
relaciones de vinculacin y encadenamientos entre el sector financiero
y real se dan en los efectos indirectos de filtracin y retroalimentacin,
es posible observar que la mayor vinculacin de la economa se da a
travs de los efectos de las transferencias directas al interior de cada
uno de los sectores en cuestin. De tal forma, que en efecto, se puede
hablar de una vinculacin dbil entre el sector financiero y real de la
economa.
Hablando de los efectos directos, cabe sealar, que aun cuando hay 56
cuentas clave, 10 impulsoras y 5 estratgicas, se encuentran 33 que se
clasificaron como independientes, de las cuales, 3 corresponden al
sector real y 30 al sector financiero.
De estas ltimas destacan la cuenta de capital de los hogares y de las
sociedades no financieras; la cuenta de formacin bruta de capital fijo
de todas las actividades econmicas; y, los instrumentos financieros en
la forma de valores de deuda de largo plazo, prstamos a corto plazo,
acciones, reservas tcnicas de seguros no de vida y otras cuentas por
pagar/cobrar, excepto crditos y anticipos bancarios.
De la lista anterior, con excepcin de los valores de deuda de largo
plazo, los prstamos a corto plazo y las otras cuentas por pagar/cobrar,
95
excepto crditos y anticipos bancarios; todas las dems cuentas se

volvieron clave, impulsoras o estratgicas, considerando los efectos
indirectos de filtracin y/o retroalimentacin.
Sin embargo, llama la atencin que estos hayan permanecido como
cuentas independientes, aun en los efectos indirectos de filtracin y
retroalimentacin, adems de los ya citados, los derivados financieros,
los prstamos a largo plazo, los valores de deuda a corto plazo y otros
depsitos, principalmente.
Considerando derivados financieros y prstamos a largo plazo, que son
operados por sociedades financieras principalmente, en un 85.1 y 81.4
por ciento respectivamente, representan 41.1 y 3.1 por ciento respecto
del PIB respectivamente. Mientras que las acciones y los crditos y
anticipos comerciales, que son generados por las sociedades no
financieras en un 95.5 y 95.2 por ciento, representan slo el 5.5 y 1.2 de
PIB respectivamente.
Lo que confirma que el sector financiero genera un mayor efecto hacia
su interior y mantiene una vinculacin dbil con la parte real de la
economa. Es decir, se corrobora la hiptesis de que existe debilidad
estructural del sistema financiero mexicano, lo que impide que este
financie suficientemente el gasto del sector real de la economa
nacional, tanto consumo como inversin productiva; esto significa que
intermediarios y mercados financieros no contribuyen de manera
96
relevante al desempeo de la economa, debido a que hay cierto

grado de desvinculacin entre sector financiero y sector real.
De tal forma que los flujos de financiamiento que se consideran
sustantivos en la economa, son los que otorgan instituciones distintas a
las financieras y que ofrecen servicios financieros como una actividad
secundaria a su giro preponderante, como es el caso del crdito que
ofrecen proveedores o filiales corporativas no financieras.
Un segundo elemento que se puede utilizar para obtener algunas
conclusiones, es que el hecho de que la SAM, como un instrumento de
anlisis, permite diversificar la corriente bajo la cual pueden realizarse los
estudios. En este caso, aun cuando es adecuado utilizar el enfoque
mixto para el anlisis de los encadenamientos, no lo es as para analizar
el vnculo entre grupos de cuentas.
Si se consideran las relaciones de la vinculacin entre los grupos de las
cuentas reales y las cuentas de capital, bajo el enfoque de Leontief
(demanda), las relaciones entre los grupos de cuentas, parten de los
gastos de inversin, sin la necesidad de un ahorro previo; as pues el
proceso de inversin se sustenta en la generacin de crdito en la
interaccin de las cuentas financieras y de capital, y en un segundo
momento, por ahorro generado durante el proceso productiva en el
sector real y por las transacciones de las cuentas financieras y de
capital en el propio sector financiero.
97
Mientras que de acuerdo con el enfoque de Gosh (oferta), existe

tambin un grado marginal de vinculacin que va del ahorro a las
relaciones de las cuentas reales y de las transacciones financieras a los
gastos de inversin y al ahorro. Al igual que con el enfoque de Leontief,
la mayor vinculacin se presenta de las cuentas de capital hacia ellas
mismas, en la forma de transacciones entre cuentas financieras.
Bajo las condiciones expresadas bajo ambos enfoques, se ha
considerado que el de Leontief se ajusta ms al sentido econmico y
permite asumir que la oferta se adecua a la demanda en un sentido
keynesiano y no al revs.
As pues, nuevamente se confirma la debilidad estructural del sistema
financiero mexicano, ya que como se observa, el proceso de inversin
se sustenta en la generacin de crdito en la interaccin de las cuentas
financieras y de capital, principalmente a travs de los crditos y
anticipos
comerciales,
as
como
por
acciones.
Concluyendo
adicionalmente, que Mxico presenta de alguna manera problemas de

desintermediacin financiera y racionamiento de crdito, comunes en
los pases menos desarrollados, tanto en las cuentas individuales como
en las de grupos.
En otro mbito de sealamientos, cabe destacar la importancia que
revisten
las
cuentas
de
las
actividades
econmicas
como
la
construccin, y la electricidad, agua y suministro de gas por ductos al
98
consumidor final, en los encadenamientos y vinculacin entre el sector

financiero y real de la economa, ya que son cuentas que requieren una
gran cantidad de financiamiento y que adems inciden de manera
considerable al ser oferentes de infraestructura (inversin) al resto de las
cuentas de la economa.
Mientras que por otro lado, se observa que las manufacturas que estn
desvinculadas del sector real y financiero, en la cuenta de produccin,
pero bajo los efectos de las transferencias directas es una cuenta clave
en la cuenta de bienes y servicios, altamente vinculada con el sector
real interno y externo, lo que lleva a pensar, en que realmente existe
una alta dependencia en sus requerimientos de insumos, capital y
financiamiento con el resto del mundo.
Por el lado de las recomendaciones, valdra la pena establecer polticas
industriales
con
el
objeto
de
hacer
menos
dependientes
las
manufacturas del resto del mundo, e integrar de manera ms eficiente

el financiamiento formal a travs del sector financiero.
Por otro lado, sera relevante establecer algn tipo de mecanismo que
incentive a las instituciones del sector financiero, a incrementar el
financiamiento que otorga a las actividades productivas, ya que de
acuerdo con los Cencos Econmicos 2009, slo el 27.9 por ciento de los
establecimientos censados (3.437 millones) cuentan con financiamiento,
del
cual
65.3 lo recibieron
a travs de propietarios y socios
99
(autofinanciamiento), 8.4 por proveedores, 17.4 es de bancos y 9.0 por

medio de cajas de ahorro popular (en su mayora no reguladas). Con lo
que se coadyuvara a la profundizacin del sector financiero mexicano,
especialmente el bancario.
Adicionalmente, como observamos, uno de los instrumentos de mayor
impacto respecto al PIB (41.1%) son los derivados financieros, operados
en su mayor parte por las sociedades financieras (85.1%); sin embargo
se trata de instrumentos que se encuentran desvinculados del resto de
la economa, por lo que su mayor uso se supone es especulativo.
Convendra establecer los mecanismos adecuados para favorecer su
uso en forma intensiva, para fines de financiamiento productivo,
minimizando su uso especulativo, promoviendo de esta manera una
mayor integracin de estos instrumentos financieros con las actividades
productivas y su realizacin econmica, para fomentar de alguna
manera el desarrollo del mercado de capitales.
Por ltimo, slo quedara la tarea de actualizar la base estructural de
nuestro anlisis a una SAM ms reciente, posiblemente 2008, por la
infraestructura estadstica existente para ese ao, con el objeto de
poder analizar las modificaciones estructurales que pudieron suceder en
el lapso de esos cinco aos y establecer la factibilidad de realizar algn
anlisis dinmico del cambio estructural en ese lapso. Convendra
adems, establecer otro punto en el tiempo para ampliar el periodo de
100
estudio y poder establecer con mayor precisin las posibles trayectorias

del cambio estructural y tecnolgico.
101
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104
Anexos
Anexo 1
Descripcin de cuentas
106
Anexo 2
SAM Agregada de Mxico 2003
108
Anexo 3
SAM desagregada de Mxico 2003
110
Anexo 4
Seleccin de cuentas
126
Anexo 5
Matriz de propensiones medias al gasto endgeno
128
Anexo 6
Matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador

de transferencias directas
132
Anexo 7

de transferencias cruzadas o de filtracin
136
Anexo 8

de transferencias circulares o de retroalimentacin
140
Anexo 9
Matriz de dispersiones medias del ingreso endgeno
144
Anexo 10 Matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador

148

152

156
Anexo 13 Clasificacin de cuentas segn encadenamientos

de la matriz de efectos netos totales
160

de la matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador
162

164

166
105
Anexo 1
Parte 1 de 2
i ;i
"
,
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; 1
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106
Parte 2 de 2
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Anexo 2
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(millones de pesos)
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SAM Desagregada de Mxico 2003
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131
Anexo 6
Parte 1 de 4
Matriz de efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias directas
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Parte 4 de 4
135
Anexo 7
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Parte 4 de 4
147
Anexo 10
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150
Parte 4 de 4
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Parte 4 de 4
155
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Anexo 13
Clasificacin de cuentas segn encadenamientos
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Vinculacion Sectorial de La Economia Mexicana

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UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL

FACULTAD DE ESTUDIOS SUPERIORES ACATLN

VINCULACIN SECTORIAL DE LA ECONOMA MEXICANA:

QUE PARA OBTENER EL GRADO DE

NGEL FERNANDO PINEDA SOLS

1.3. Las cuentas

Definicin de las cuentas

3.2. Estimacin de multiplicadores

3.3. Estimacin de encadenamientos

3.4. Anlisis de la vinculacin sectorial

Efectos netos del multiplicador de transferencias

Definicin a partir de la interpretacin de Mantey, Guadalupe (1997). Lecciones de Economa

Sin embargo, en aos recientes se ha observado que en Mxico, el

Financiamiento al Sector Privado: Empresas

Fuente: Elaboracin propia con base en informacin de BANXICO e INEGI.

Por otro lado, Mxico tiene niveles de penetracin financiera,

Aun con el dinamismo que ha mostrado la banca comercial en los

Crdito Bancario al Sector Privado 1/

De tal forma, dado que la evidencia emprica discrepa en alguna

Por lo cual se establece como hiptesis la existencia de debilidad

ingls), construida ex profeso para Mxico con informacin del ao

encadenamientos financieros y reales; calcular los encadenamientos

conclusiones pertinentes al anlisis sobre la vinculacin sectorial de la

vinculacin entre cuentas; en el captulo tercero se discute la

Captulo I. La Matriz de Contabilidad Social

funcionamiento de una economa agregada, cuando se buscaron

sociedad, con lo que contribuy a la medicin de la actividad

Leontief, impulsaron y desarrollaron el primer modelo cerrado de los

estandarizacin posterior le correspondi a Naciones Unidas (1953).

Cambridge, junto con Alan Brown, en el programa de investigacin

se incluyen por primera vez las SAM como un mtodo alternativo de

hecho de que la distribucin de las

oportunidades de empleo y el nivel de vida estn ntimamente

constat un creciente inters en el diseo, construccin y uso de dichas

The use of a social

Analizar la funcin del

Calibrar un modelo para

Deriving a Global Social

2003 Araceli Ortega

2004 Irene Barboza,

2006 Gaspar Nuez

En consecuencia, se puede apreciar que para la economa mexicana

relevantes dentro de una economa, utilizando el concepto contable

De acuerdo con la condicin de simetricidad, conjuntamente con el

Statistics Netherlands (2003).

la visin asociada con la industria y los flujos de bienes, se pueden

Los agentes econmicos de una regin o pas pueden dividirse en

EC, IMF, OCDE, UN & WB (2009).

manera autnoma. De tal forma que los sectores institucionales se

Las sociedades no financieras.

Las sociedades financieras.

Instituciones privadas sin fines de lucro al servicio de los hogares.

1.3. Las Cuentas

Cuentas corrientes, en la que se registran los bienes y servicios, la

Cuentas de capital, que registran todas las variaciones de activos

activos, este conjunto constituye el saldo contable de las

generacin, distribucin y redistribucin del ingreso, as como las

Matrices agregadas, que presentan cada una de las cuentas de

concentradas en cada una de las celdas que la componen.

Matrices desagregadas, en las que se incluye una sub-matriz

Como la matriz agregada es el punto intermedio, a partir del cual se

= Mrgenes de comercio y de transporte.

= Valor bruto de la produccin a precios bsicos 12.

= Impuestos sobre los productos, netos de subsidios.