The Cost of Global Warming

Bill Armstrong
 Recommendations to Limit
Global Warming
• Make buildings and industries more energy
efficient
• Improve urban planning to reduce travel
• Encourage greener modes of consumerism
• Design more fuel efficient vehicles
• Promote biofuels
• Promote mass transportation
• Improve mix of tree species in forests
2007 UN Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change
 Limiting Global Warming

• Keeping the rise in global temperature

below 2C will cost about 1% to 3% of
global GDP

2007 UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
A 2C Rise in Global Temperature
is predicted to:

• Cause the loss of 30% of species currently

at high risk of extinction
• Bring about widespread coral bleaching
• Lower agricultural yields in the tropics
Cost to Limit Global Warming

$.6 to $1.8 trillion

dollars per year for
50 to 100 years
1% to 3% of U.S. U.S. Resident
GDP represents:

$435
to
$1,306
Per Year
Per Person
 U.S. Citizen
Cost to Limit Cost of Global
Global Warming Warming

$435
to
$1,306
Per Year
Per Person
 Estimated
Eastern U.S.
Coastline with
three meter rise
in sea level
New York City
 Cost of Natural Disasters
• Hurricane Katrina $150 billion
• Hurricane Andrew $36 billion
• Hurricane Hugo $12.6 billion
• 1993 Mississippi Flood $12 billion
• 1980 U.S. Drought $48 billion
• 1988 U.S. Drought $62 billion

Costs normalized to 2002 dollars

 Impact of Climate Change on
Pacific Northwest
• Decreased snowpack and earlier spring melt leading to severe droughts
• Introduction of water conservation measures on the Columbia River
• Increased number and severity of forest fires
• Loss of tourism
• Rise in sea level flooding Puget Sound
• Crop losses from heat and water shortages
• Introduction of new insect pests and crop diseases
• Increased medical costs for West Nile Virus
 China

India

Bangladesh
 China

India

Bangladesh
Cost of Global Warming
• Sterns Report, October 2006

$9 Trillion Dollars
or more *
* Greater than the combined cost of World War 1
and World War II and the great depression
 Cost to Limit Cost of Global
Global Warming Warming

1% to 3% 5 % to
of global 20% of
GDP for global GDP
50 to 100 forever
years
 U.S. Resident
Cost to Limit Cost of Global
Global Warming Warming per
per Person Person

$435 $2,177
to to
$1,306 $8,709
Per Year Per Year