BijaAdvisors

Better Decisions, Better Results

Seeds of Thought
Cognitive Science Meets Investment Management

Issue 14-10
December 15, 2014

Living Life Deliberately

From the moment we are born, we are dying. Over time our skin becomes less elastic. Our blood vessels
wear down from friction. Our physical selves become frail until we can continue no longer. Thats just
the nature of the beast. Age is the metric by which we keep track of that decay.
Now for the good news. From the moment we are born, we are evolving. To evolve means to develop
gradually, from a simple to a more complex form. Thats the part I like to focus on. Im not simply
getting older, Im evolving.
For many, personal evolution ends when we finish with school. Venturing out into the big, cold world on
our own, we find comfort by wrapping ourselves in the safety of what we know, what others expect of
us, the beliefs of our parents or anything else that gives us solace. Fear takes over.
Fear is a barrier. While there are literally hundreds of them, they all boil down to a fear of losing
something, whether its comfort, face, limb or life. No matter the fear, it is the greatest barrier to our
individual growth. If fear rules my life, then Im no longer evolving. Im just getting older. In other
words, if fear rules, Im just left dying.

Resolutions
This year I will be a better
In 2015, I will stop
I will finally lose
New Years resolutions are a way of facing our flaws, while simultaneously serving as expressions of
hope for overcoming them. For some, they are also public pronouncements of our greatest delusions.
Unfortunately, we are who we are and it isnt until we come to grips with that fact that we can truly hope
to achieve those goals that lie outside our natural tendencies. We have predilections and no amount of
hope or good intentions can push us in another direction.
What is required for true transformation is not delusion, but rather a specific plan, with definitive,
iterative, achievable goals, combined with the acknowledgment that we will need help from others and
that at some point, we will likely be our own greatest barrier to achieving success.
According to Daniel Kahneman, the guru of Social Psychology, The expectation of intelligent gossip is
a powerful motive for serious self-criticism. In other words, if you want to achieve a goal that is outside
your realm, go public with it. Risk looking foolish if you dont follow through. The bolder, more public
your pronouncement, the more pressure you will feel to stick with it.
I have taken this to an extreme, both professionally and personally. As a portfolio manager, I publish my
views and produce trade write-ups for every position, which I then share publicly. On the personal side, I
keep resolution blogs. While some may say these are a cry for attention, to those people I say, You are
absolutely right! You see, I need people to read the blog, to comment on my progress and to call me out
!
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Bija Advisors Seeds of Thought

Issue No. 13-10

if I falter. I need to know that others are watching me and I am risking public humiliation, or at least
intelligent gossip by not following through. I am using my readers to make myself a better person, and
a better portfolio manager. It is my sincere hope that my thoughts and experiences provide them with
something of value in return.

Realizing Our True Potential

2001 is the year in which the iPod changed my life. At the time, I lived in South Kensington, London
and worked in Mayfair, making my commute a 45 minute walk through Hyde Park during which I
would listen to music. 1.5 hours a day, 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year added up to 23,400 minutes when
I was awake, alert, and wasting time.
I hadn't truly appreciated this obvious fact until one night a friend confided to me that he wished he
could play the guitar. I know people make this kind of statement all the time, but for some reason, this
time it stuck in my head, replaying over and over again. By the end of the night, his comment had grown
into irritation.
Wishing should be reserved for things beyond your control, like winning the lottery or your kid getting
into the college of their choice. Learning how to play the guitar, on the other hand, can be accomplished
with absolute certainly. All you have to do is put in the time. In other words, you either want it and
accomplish it, or you don't.
If I was being totally honest with myself, though, it wasn't my friend's wish that had really irritated me,
it was all of my own wishes that remained unfulfilled. Thanks to Steve Jobs, I could redirect that
irritation, immediately. I purchased all 33 cd's in Series 1 of the Pimsleur German Language program,
ripped and downloaded them to my iPod. When I had listened to each of them at least three times, I
ordered the next 33, and the next. After 10 months, I had completed the entire program. I'd never seen a
written word of German nor spoken it to anyone, except myself when repeating after the recording (yes,
I attracted my share of funny looks), but was hungry for more. I opted for an intensive course in Berlin.
16 days where you are completely immersed in the language. You live with a German family and attend
classes all day long where only German is spoken. By the end of the course, Berliners on the streets
were responding to my questions in German and I was thinking auf Deutsch rather than translating
everything in my head to English, and back.
Just 10 months after making the decision to stop wishing and start achieving, I was back in Berlin with
my son, speaking to locals in their language. He was astonished, but what was truly amazing is that there
was nothing amazing about it. I had made the simple decision to live my life deliberately, and nothing
would ever be the same again.
I began selecting other items from my "wish" list, and ticking them off one by one. I earned my auto
racing license, learned aerobatic flying, snowboarding, and ice waterfall climbing, to name just a few.
Then I took it to the next level, formalizing the process through New Year's resolutions.
In 2007, the year I moved to Santa Barbara, although I'd never been on a hike in my life, I publicly
pronounced my goal to hike every trail in our mountains. I bought a map, marked them off one by one
until I'd done them all at least once, and even kept a log of each hike on a website for all to see. Of
course the website didn't get many hits, but the possibility that someone might read it kept me motivated
to keep going. 2009 was the year of Biblio-Inspiration, in which I would attempt to read 50 books.
Again, I kept a blog with reviews and excerpts I found interesting from all 50, and again, very few
people took notice.
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Bija Advisors Seeds of Thought

Issue No. 13-10

For 2012, I set 12 learning resolutions and

12 giving resolutions, chronicling my
progress on the website, 12for2012.com.
Learning resolutions were defined as
quirky, seemingly difficult things that
most people marvel at, yet could be
accomplished if you just make an effort
and have the discipline and tenacity to stick
with it. The Giving Resolutions were
defined as 12 charitable things that dont
involve writing a check.
On the charitable side, among other things,
I built homes in Arizona for those in need,
fostered a pitbull set to be put down 12
hours later, and registered to be a marrow
2009: The Year of Biblioinspiration
donor. Not all of my attempts to give were
received quite so well, though. My blood
was rejected because I had lived in the UK, my sperm because of my
age and my hair because it is grey. So much for feeling good about
myself.
Some of the things I learned that year were, how to unicycle, play the
drums, ballroom dance, and on my wifes suggestion, knit. Initially,
the plan was to knit a scarf, but to be honest, I wasnt very inspired.
Since the 2007 resolution to hike every trail, I have continued hiking 3
or 4 times a week, logging well over 1,000 miles a year in the
mountains. One day, while sitting under a 40 foot tall eucalyptus tree,
2.6 miles up the Cold Spring Trail, it hit me. Inspired by my childhood
in South Florida, when Christo wrapped 11 islands in Biscayne Bay
with pink fiber, I decided I would attempt to wrap that tree in knitted
yarn. It turned out, the 2nd Annual International Yarnbombing Day
was just 82 days from that moment, so I hadnt any time to spare.
If youre interested, you can read the details of this
endeavor and the rest of the resolutions from that year at
12for2012.com. For brevitys sake, suffice it to say, I
accomplished my goal by knitting often and recruiting
help through social media. In the end, I had 400 square
feet of knitted pieces which I donated to WarmUp
America, a charity that converts it into scarves and
blankets for those in need.
When I shipped off that yarn, I thought I was done with it
forever, but a funny thing happened, something I hadnt
anticipated. Suddenly, images of my tree started popping
up all over the internet. Blogs, Facebook, Instagram,
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Reproduction or retransmission in any form, without written permission, is a violation of Federal Statute
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Bija Advisors Seeds of Thought

Issue No. 13-10

Pinterest and business websites had not just pictures of the

yarnbomb, but stories about how it made people feel to
have seen it in person. A non-profit in South Africa tracked
me down, asking if I would help them do something
similar in order to raise money and awareness. Another, in
Stratford-on-Avon, England, included images of my work
and noted me as the inspiration for their own project, in a
presentation they were using to raise funds. Then a woman
who had contributed a piece to my project was asking for
help with her own yarnbomb installation. She needed
contributions to be crocheted, though. So, I watched a
video on YouTube, crocheted 27 pieces and shipped them
off to her. I was hooked.
Over the next few months, I covered a massive boulder
atop the Saddlerock Trail, weaved a giant spiderweb at
Sasquatch Cave and created a huge Starfish which I hung
40 feet above the pools at Seven Falls. In May 2014, I
wrapped 18 large boulders at Lizards Mouth, with knitted
and crocheted yarn sent to me by 388 fiber artists in 36
countries and all 50 states.
The feedback has been phenomenal and with each
installation, interest in my hobby has grown. The National
Forest Service was quoted in the newspapers as saying the
Lizards Mouth installation was one of the most positive
things to happen in the forests in a long time. There have
been multi-page and cover stories in all the regional
newspapers, television news and even ArtNews Magazine,
the oldest and most widely read art publication in the
world did a full page story on it all last month. Sullivan
Goss, one of the most prestigious galleries in America now
represents my work and is funding the next installation.
Red Heart Yarn, the largest fiber manufacturer in the world
is sponsoring my attempt to set the Guinness World Record
for the largest granny square. Perhaps most incredible of
all, I have 30,000+ followers on social media and more
than 15,000 unique visitors a month on my website, YarnBomber.com. All of which has been
accomplished without the assistance of a public relations firm or much of an effort on my part. More on
that in a minute.
In addition, I have had the privilege of speaking at corporate events and lecturing at the University of
California, not so much about the artwork, but on the process of pushing ourselves beyond our comfort
zones, to realize our true potential. Im often asked how it is that one person can occupy two seemingly
opposite ends of the spectrum, investment management and large scale installation art in nature. What is
it that connects these two pursuits? The answer lies in the process. I believe that to be successful in
Copyright 2014 by Bija Advisors LLC.; BijaAdvisorsLLC.com
Reproduction or retransmission in any form, without written permission, is a violation of Federal Statute
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Bija Advisors Seeds of Thought

Issue No. 13-10

global macro investing and to produce memorable, unique artwork requires an ability, and willingness,
to see things differently, the tenacity to press on when others tire of asking Why? and Why not?, and
the courage to venture out beyond where the majority congregates.

Original Content
So why have I shared all of this with you? How is any of this relevant to global macro? Im afraid the
full answer will have to wait until the final Macro Radar of 2015, The Lottery Economy, but I will
explain a bit here. What our industry and in fact, many industries lack these days is unique, original
content. The reason I have managed to stand out in such a crowded sector of social media, leap frogged
so many more talented artists in garnering media and establishment attention, is that I produce unique,
original content. Rather than following the path of those who came before me and in spite of all the
advice I have been offered by those who have achieved great success in the field, I am pursuing this as a
passion, following my own instincts. Where it leads, how successful I am at it is of little consequence.
What matters is that I produce something for which I can be proud, something that I believe in.
The same applies to what I publish as Bija Advisors. I will leave the in-depth analysis of Abes every
utterance and the deep dive into the meaning of every syllable selected by the FOMC to others. In spite
of the advice to the contrary, I wont cater to the Twitter generations need for bullet points nor will I
resort to hyperbole to sell subscriptions. I will produce content that I believe to be both valuable and
actionable, professionally and personally. Im well aware that it wont appeal to everyone. In fact, like
massive yarnbombs in the mountains, I expect my publications will continue to garner a fairly limited,
yet passionate following. As Ive discovered with my more creative endeavors, it is in the connection
with a group that shares my passion for the subject that the greatest satisfaction lies. As The
Yarnbomber, my stated mission is to Draw people back to nature with colorful yarnbombs in the
mountains, while building a global community of kind and creative people. Through Bija Advisors, I
hope to do something similar for Global Macro.

About the Author

For nearly three decades, Stephen Duneier has applied cognitive science to investment and business
management. The result has been 20.3% average annualized returns with near zero correlation to any
major index, the development of a billion dollar hedge fund, a burgeoning career as an artist and a
rapidly shrinking bucket list.
Mr. Duneier teaches Decision Analysis in the College of Engineering at the University of California
Santa Barbara.
Through Bija Advisors' publications and consulting practice, he helps portfolio managers and business
leaders improve performance by applying proven decision-making skills to their own processes.
As a speaker, Stephen has delivered informative and inspirational talks to audiences around the world
for more than 20 years on topics including global macro economic themes, how cognitive science can
improve performance and the keys to living a more deliberate life. Each is delivered via highly
entertaining stories that inevitably lead to further conversation, and ultimately, better results.
Stephen Duneier was formerly Global Head of Currency Option Trading at Bank of America and
Managing Director of Emerging Markets at AIG International. His artwork has been featured in
international publications and on television programs around the world, and is represented by the world
renowned gallery, Sullivan Goss. He received his master's degree in finance and economics from New
York University's Stern School of Business.
Copyright 2014 by Bija Advisors LLC.; BijaAdvisorsLLC.com
Reproduction or retransmission in any form, without written permission, is a violation of Federal Statute
Important disclosures appear at the back of this document

Bija Advisors Seeds of Thought

Issue No. 13-10

Bija Advisors LLC

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LinkedIn: Duneier
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relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing on Bija Advisors LLCs publications only. All forecasts and statements
about the future, even if presented as fact, should be treated as judgments, and neither Bija Advisors LLC nor its partners can be held responsible for any
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Copyright 2014 by Bija Advisors LLC.; BijaAdvisorsLLC.com

Reproduction or retransmission in any form, without written permission, is a violation of Federal Statute
Important disclosures appear at the back of this document