Economic Outlook

for Canadas Energy

Sector
Canadian Energy Supply Chain Forum
October 2014
Terry Abel
Director, Oil Sands

Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

Represents large and small producer member companies.
Members explore for, develop and produce natural gas,
natural gas liquids, crude oil, and oil sands throughout
Canada.
Produce about 90 per cent of Canadas natural gas and
crude oil.
Part of a national industry with revenues of about $110
billion per year.
Associate members provide a wide range of services that
support the upstream crude oil and natural gas industry.

Global Energy Demand Growth

Global energy demand
will continue to grow.
Population increases.
Higher standard of living.

Continued reliance on
hydrocarbon resources
despite growth in
renewables.
82% in 2011; 78% is
forecast for 2035.

Shift to unconventional
sources of oil and gas.

Growth in Canadian Energy Production

Factors Impacting Growth Crude Oil Prices

140.00
120.00

US$/bbl

100.00
80.00

Brent Spot
WTI NYMEX

60.00

Cdn Lt Swt
WCS Posted

40.00
20.00

J
O
2014

O
2013
A

A
J

A
J
O
2011

2010

A
J
O
2012

WTI Premium to WCS

Factors Impacting Growth Transportation

Enbridge Mainline

PADD IV
Trans Mountain
Express

Canadas Energy Industry and the Economy

140

Upstream
Oil & Gas

120

Annual Revenues ($ Billions)

Major Canadian Products Industries

100
80

Auto
Manufacturing

60
40

Forestry
& Logging

20

Wheat
& Barley

Uranium

0
Source: ARC Financial & CAPP

Payments to governments average about $18 billion per year.

20% of the value of the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Approximately 20% of Canadas exports.
Employs more than 550,000 in Canada (direct & indirect).
Invested $74 billion in Canada in 2013.
Largest private sector investor in Canada.

Shifting Energy Investment

70
60
50
40

Oil sands
Conventional

30
20
10
0

Oil Sands Share of

Capital Investment

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E

Capital Investment ($Billions)

80

2015 Energy Investment Spending

Northern Canada
2013 2014E 2015F
$0.1 $0.7
$0.5

(Cdn $Billions)

Total Energy Investment

2013 2014E 2015F
$74
$73
$69

Oil Sands
2013
2014E
2015F
$31
$33
$30
Western Canada
2013 2014E 2015F
$39
$36
$35

East Coast Offshore

2013
2014E
2015F
$3.9
$3.5
$3.5

Note: Excludes spending on mergers & acquisitions

Diversity of Supply Chain

Suppliers to Canadas Oil Sands (# of Companies by Region)

10

Diversity of Supply Chain

Aboriginal Business With Oil Sands Developers
Athabasca Region Aboriginal Businesses:
Revenues of $1.9B in 2013.
$10B in revenues over last 15 years.

Employment:
Over 1,700 aboriginal employees in permanent jobs.

11