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Exam
A total of 4 questions, each worth 25 marks = 100 marks.
About this note
This note is created by focusing on the study guide of F9 found in ACCA website, satisfying the
requirements in study guide as much as possible and covering what you need to know to pass this
exam. The notes only covered main ideas, make sure you practice past year questions to be fully
prepared. It is good if you can bring forward your knowledge from previous studies to understand
better, especially F5 and it gives you advantage if you have FFM knowledge.
Syllabus areas
Page numbers
2-4
5-7
8-19
D: Investment appraisal
20-34
E: Business finance
35-45
F: Cost of capital
46-56
G: Business valuations
57-63
H: Risk management
64-75
2. Quick or acid test ratio = (current assets inventories)/current liabilities, ideally should be at least
1:1.
3. Average collection period/receivables days = receivables/credit sales x 365 days, this shows the
length of time it takes for companys customers to pay. This formula can be changed to receivables
days/365 days x credit sales to get receivables.
4. Average payable period/payables days = payables/credit purchases x 365 days, this shows the time
taken for company to pay suppliers. This formula can be changed to payables days/365 days x credit
purchases to get payables.
5. Inventory turnover period (finished goods) = inventory/cost of sales x 365 days.
6. Raw materials days = raw materials inventory/purchases x 365 days.
7. Work-in-progress (WIP) period = (WIP inventory/cost of sales x % of completion) x 365 days.
8. Inventory turnover ratio = cost of sales/average inventory.
9. Sales revenue/net working capital ratio = sales/(current assets current liabilities), this shows the
level of working capital supporting sales and working capital must increase in line with sales to avoid
liquidity problems.
Symptoms of overtrading are increased revenue, increased current/non-current assets, current
liabilities more than current assets, assets financed by credit and not share capital, reduced current
and quick ratios, inventory and receivables are more than sales.
Managing inventory
Important techniques include economic order quantity (EOQ) and just-in-time (JIT). It is very useful to
bring forward your knowledge from previous studies.
EOQ is the optimal ordering quantity for an item of inventory that will minimise costs, at the same time
balancing the need to meet customer demand. Inventory costs include:
(i) Holding costs eg. rental of warehouse, theft of stock.
(ii) Ordering costs eg. telephone charges, delivery costs.
(iii) Shortage costs eg. loss of sale
(iv) Purchase costs price of the goods
EOQ or Q =
2cd/h, c = cost of per order for one year, d = annual demand, h = holding cost per unit
of inventory for one year, Q = reorder quantity. (EOQ formula is given in exam).
Holding cost = Qh/2, ordering cost = cd/Q
Total annual cost = holding cost + ordering cost + purchase cost
Assumptions of EOQ formula are purchase costs are constant, lead time is constant, demand is
constant and no inflation.
When there are bulk discounts from other supplier and you have to decide whether to order based on
EOQ or take the bulk discounts, compare the total annual cost if used EOQ and the total annual cost if
takes the bulk discounts (company may order more to get the discount), the lower costs will be chosen.
Other formulas include:
Reorder level = maximum usage x maximum lead time, measure the inventory level at which
replenishment order should be placed.
Maximum level = reorder level + reorder quantity (minimum usage x minimum lead time), inventory
level should not exceed this level.
Minimum level/buffer inventory = reorder level (average usage x average lead time), inventory level
should not fall under this level.
Average inventory = reorder quantity/2 + minimum level
Just-in-time (JIT) aims to hold as little inventory as possible and production systems need to be very
efficient to achieve this. Deliveries will be small and frequent rather than in bulk. Company needs to
have a reliable supplier as that supplier will guarantee to deliver raw materials components of
appropriate quality always on time. Unit purchasing prices may be higher as supplier guarantees the
quality and also on time delivery. Workforce must also be flexible and multi-skilled in order to minimize
delay and eliminate poor quality production. Reduced inventory levels mean that a lower level of
investment in working capital will be required.
Managing receivables
Managing accounts receivable involves many aspects, mainly relating to offering credit and collecting
back the money. Credit control policies are guideline on giving credit, can be set based on before
offering credit (assess creditworthiness, check past record of customers), during credit period (monitor
the receivables) and after credit period (chase slow payers, aged receivables analysis). The amount of
total credit that a business offers depends on:
(i) The firms working capital needs and the investment in receivables.
(ii) Management responsibility for carrying out the credit control policy.
An important aspect of the credit control policy is to devise suitable payment terms, covering when
and how should payment be made.
Assessing creditworthiness
A credit assessment is a judgement about the creditworthiness of a customer. It provides a basis for a
decision as to whether credit should be granted. If the credit risk (possibility that the debt goes bad) is
high, the customers need to be managed carefully. The methods include:
1. Bank reference banks are cautious as they owe duties of care to customer and enquirer, therefore
the information about customers are limited.
2. Trade reference - get information from customers suppliers, useful but careful as customers will
give name of suppliers that they have good history with.
3. Check the credit ratings from the credit rating agency.
4. Ratio analysis.
5. Customer visits.
6. Press comments.
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There should be efficiently organised procedures for ensuring that overdue debts and slow payers are
dealt with effectively, some examples are:
Issuing reminder letters
Chasing payment by telephone
Charge interest for late settlement
Employ services of debt collection agency (pay commission)
Send authorized person to visit and request payment
Take legal action
Offering early settlement discounts
Early settlement discounts may be offered to reduce average credit periods and investment in
accounts receivable which will also reduce interest costs. To decide whether to offer the discount,
compare cost of discount allowed and benefits from reduced accounts receivable.
Example: Fire Co has annual credit sales of $12000000 and three months are allowed for payment. The
company decides to offer 2% discount for payments made within ten days of invoice being sent and to
reduce the time allowed for payment to two months. It is estimated that 50% of customers will take
the discount. Company requires 20% return on investments and assume sales volume remain, decide
whether or not to offer the discount.
Solution: New accounts receivable = 10/365 x 50% x $12000000 + 2/12 x 50% x $12000000 = $1164384.
Current accounts receivable = 3/12 x $12000000 = $3000000.
Reduction in accounts receivable = 3000000 1164384 = $1835616.
Benefits of the reduced accounts receivable = $1835616 x 20% = $367123.
Cost of discount allowed = $12000000 x 50% x 2% = $120000.
Net benefit = 367123 120000 = $247123.
It is therefore financially beneficial to offer the early settlement discount.
The compound annual cost of early settlement discount can be calculated by (100/100 d) ^ (365/t)
1, d = discount, t = time difference between cash discount date and the credit term.
Example: A company offers its goods to customers on 30 days credit. It also offers a 2% discount if
payment is made within 10 days of the date of invoice, calculate compound annual cost of offering the
early settlement discount.
Solution: Compound annual cost = (100/98) ^ (365/20) 1 = 44.6%.
Alternatively, 2/98 is the cost of discount and to convert it to annual percentage:
(1 + 2/98) ^ (365/20) 1 = 44.6%.
Using factoring and invoice discounting
Some businesses might have difficulties in financing amounts owed by customers, they can employ the
service of factoring. Factoring is an arrangement to have debts collected by a factor company which
advances a proportion of the money that it is due to collect.
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opportunities, improved foreign exchange risk management, able to employ experts (cash is pooled)
and easier to manage cash.
Cash management models
Optimal cash holding levels can be calculated using Baumol model and Miller-Orr model.
Baumol model is based on the idea that deciding on optimum cash balances is similar to deciding on
optimum inventory levels. It is similar to EOQ, it is based on the formula Q =
, Q is cash to be
raised, F is fixed cost of obtaining new funds, S is amount of cash to be used, I is interest cost of holding
cash.
Example: Fire Co faces a fixed cost of $4000 to obtain new funds. There is a requirement for $24000 of
cash over each period of one year for the foreseeable future. The interest cost of new funds is 12% per
annum, interest rate earned on short-term securities is 9% per annum. How much finance should Fire
Co raise at a time?
Solution: Interest cost of holding cash = 12% - 9% = 3%.
Q=
= $80000. Q is like reorder quantity, so this means to raise $80000 every time.
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The decision rule is if cash balance reaches $33300, buy $16900 (33300 16400) of marketable
securities (reduce the cash balance to return point). If cash balance falls to $8000, sell $8400
marketable securities (increase the cash balance to return point).
Short-term investment of surplus funds
Before investing surplus funds, key factors to consider are as follow:
(i) Risk the higher the risk, the higher the return. There are two types of risks, systematic risk (risk
that affects the whole market and cannot be diversified away) and unsystematic risk (risks that affects
only specific market, can be reduce by diversification, means to hold more than one/portfolio of
investment).
(ii) Liquidity the ease of converting into cash, high liquid low return.
(iii) Maturity the duration of investment, long maturity high return.
(iv) Return after considered risk, liquidity and maturity, company is in position of considering how
much return they want.
The investment options available include:
1. Certificate of deposit (CD) a certificate indicating that a sum of money has been deposited with a
bank and will be repaid at a later date. As CDs can be bought and sold in the CD market any time, they
are liquid type of investment.
2. Treasury bills IOUs issued by government, promising to pay a certain amount to their holder on
maturity.
3. Shares.
4. Deposit in bank or similar financial institution.
5. Bonds.
3. Determining working capital needs and funding strategies
Working capital requirements
The amount of current assets and current liabilities can be determined by looking at the working
capital cycle components. You can change the formula of receivable, inventory and payable days to
find the amount.
Example: The annual cost of purchasing direct materials is $450000 and raw materials are in inventory
for three months.
Solution: Raw material days = raw material/purchases x 365 so raw material = raw material days/365 x
purchases. In this case, raw material in inventory = 3/12 x $450000 = $112500. Of course there will be
other elements such as WIP and finished goods in reality, you will need to calculate the total current
assets then minus current liabilities to get working capital.
Permanent and fluctuating current assets
1. Permanent current assets are the amount required to meet long-term minimum needs and maintain
normal trading activity. For example, inventory and accounts receivable.
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Investment appraisal
1. The nature of investment decisions and the appraisal process
Firstly, the distinction must be made between capital and revenue expenditure. Capital expenditure is
expenditure which results in the acquisition of non-current assets or an improvement in their earning
capacity. Revenue expenditure is incurred for the purpose of the trade of the business or to maintain
the existing earning capacity of non-current assets.
Secondly, we should differentiate between non-current assets and working capital investment.
Investment in non-current assets involved large amount of money and it takes some time for the
benefit to cover the investment cost. Non-current assets will be used on a continuing basis within the
organisation.
Investment in working capital involved a smaller amount of money and arises from the need to pay out
money for resources such as raw materials before it can be recovered from sales of the finished
product or service. It is therefore needed to maintain the operational trade cycle.
Capital budget
Capital budget is essentially a non-current asset purchase budget, and it will form part of longer term
plan of a business. Regular and minor non-current asset purchases may be covered by an annual
allowance provided for in the capital budget. Major projects will need to be considered individually and
will need to be fully appraised. Therefore, investment appraisal holds an important role in capital
budgeting.
Stages of capital investment decision-making process
1. Identifying investment opportunities Investment opportunities or proposals could arise from
analysis of strategic choices, analysis of the business environment, research and development, or legal
requirements. The key requirement is that investment proposals should support the achievement of
organisational objectives.
2. Screening investment proposals In the real world, capital markets are imperfect, so it is usual for
companies to be restricted in the amount of finance available for capital investment. Companies
therefore need to choose between competing investment proposals and select those with the best
strategic fit and the most appropriate use of economic resources.
3. Analysing and evaluating investment proposals Candidate investment proposals need to be
analysed in depth and evaluated to determine which offer the most attractive opportunities to achieve
organisational objectives, for example to increase shareholder wealth. This is the stage where
investment appraisal plays a key role, indicating for example which investment proposals has the
highest net present value.
4. Approving investment proposals The most suitable investment proposals are passed to the
relevant level of authority for consideration and approval. Very large proposals may require approval
by the board of directors, while smaller proposals may be approved at divisional level, and so on. Once
approval has been given, implementation can begin.
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5. Implementing, monitoring and reviewing investments The time required to implement the
investment proposal or project will depend on its size and complexity, and is likely to be several
months. Following implementation, the investment project must be monitored to ensure that the
expected results are being achieved and the performance is as expected. The whole of the investment
decision-making process should also be reviewed in order to facilitate organisational learning and to
improve future investment decisions.
2. Non-discounted cash flow techniques
Relevant cash flows
The skill of identifying relevant cash flows is essential in investment appraisal, we only take into
account the relevant cash flows. Relevant cash flows are always future, incremental cash flows.
Variable cost is normally relevant and fixed cost (or unavoidable) is normally irrelevant (incremental
fixed cost is relevant). Opportunity cost (contribution loss from not taking another option) is relevant
but sometime it may be difficult to identify. The extra or reduced tax is also relevant. Interest will not
be relevant here because it is allowed in discount rate (discount rate discussed later). We will now look
at non-discounted cash flow techniques to investment appraisal, payback method and return on capital
employed (ROCE) are covered.
Payback method
The payback period is the time taken for the initial investment to be recovered by cash inflows (time
for cash inflows = cash outflows). When there are two projects, project with the least payback period is
favoured.
Example: An investment would costs $10000 and generate cash inflows of $3000 per annum, what is
the payback period?
Solution:
Year
cash flows ($)
accumulated cash flows ($)
0
($10000)
($10000)
1
$3000
($7000)
2
$3000
($4000)
3
$3000
($1000)
4
$3000
$2000
Payback period = 3 years + 1000/3000 x 12 months = 3 years 4 months.
Advantages of payback period are:
(i) It is easy to calculate and understand
(ii) Widely used in practice as a first screening method (fast check).
(iii) Identify quick cash generating projects.
Disadvantages of payback period are:
(i) Total profitability is ignored.
(ii) Time value of money is ignored.
(iii) Does not take into account positive cash inflows occurring after the end of the payback period.
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If the annual cash flows are constant from year to year, this is called annuities. When this occurs, a
short-cut will be to use annuity factors to convert the future cash flows to present values.
Example: The companys cost of capital is 10% and a constant annual cash flows of $5000 is expected
to occur from year 2 to year 5, what is the present value of the cash flows?
Solution: Referring to the annuity table, at annuity factor of 10% period 5, the present value rate is
3.791, this includes period 1s rate, so present value rate for year 2 to year 5 = present value rate of
year 5 present value rate of year 1 = 3.791 0.909 = 2.882. This can also be calculated by adding the
present value rate of year 2 to year 5 from the present value table.
Present value = $5000 x 2.882 = $14410.
In the case of perpetuity, this means that annual cash flows are constant and occur in infinite time. The
present value rate is calculated as 1/r.
Example: The companys cost of capital is 10% and cash inflows are expected to be $20000 per annum
in perpetuity, what is the present value of the cash flows?
Solution: Present value rate = 1/0.1 = 10. Present value = $20000 x 10 = $200000.
Time value of money
This is an important consideration in decision-making. Most people would prefer $100 today rather
than $100 in 10 years' time. Because $100 will probably buy you less in 10 years' time than it will today.
NPV and IRR recognise this and therefore discount the future cash flows to present value in project
appraisal.
Net present value
NPV method calculates the present value of all cash flows, and sums them to give the NPV. If this is
positive, then the project is acceptable. When performing NPV calculations, the following approach
should be taken:
1. Identify the relevant cash inflows and outflows of the project, not forgetting the initial investment.
The timing of cash flows is very important. In NPV all cash flows are assumed to occur at year ends only:
(i) If cash flows occur at the beginning of investment project, then include in time 0.
(ii) If cash flows occur during the time period, then include in this time.
(iii) If cash flows occur at the beginning of time period, then include in previous time.
2. Add up the cash inflows and outflows for each year, then discount each of the cash flows to its
present value, using the company's cost of capital.
3. Calculate the net present value of the project by adding all present values for each year.
4. Decide whether or not the project should be accepted (accept if positive NPV).
Advantages of NPV are:
(i) Positive NPV project will maximise shareholder wealth.
(ii) Takes into account the time value of money.
(iii) Based on cash flows which are less subjective than profit.
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3. Both method uses reinvestment assumption (an assumption about the rate of return of the project
when reinvested). NPV assumes that net cash inflows generated during the life of the project can be
reinvested in the same project to earn rate of return equals to cost of capital (discount rate). IRR
assumes that net cash inflows can be reinvested in the same project to earn rate of return equals to
IRR.
Discounted payback
The approach will be similar to payback method, we are still calculating the time where investment
cost will be covered by cash inflows, but this time the cash flows will be discounted to present values.
Advantages of discounted payback method
1. Take into account time value of money.
2. Easy to calculate and understand.
3. Identify quick cash generating projects.
4. Payback can be adjusted for risk by discounting future cash flows with a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Disadvantages of discounted payback method
1. Require cost of capital to be estimated first.
2. Ignore cash flows beyond discounted payback period.
3. No decision criteria to indicate whether the investment increases companys value, unlike NPV and
IRR, eg. positive NPV means increase value, IRR more than cost of capital means acceptable.
Superiority of discounted cash flow (DCF) methods over non-DCF methods
It is the obvious point that DCF methods take into account time value of money which makes the
assessment of project more accurate. They also take into account all cash flows of the project, unlike
payback method which only looks at when investment cost is paid back.
Timing of cash flows is taken into account as opposed to ROCE method. In addition, they use relevant
cash flows in investment appraisal, ROCE used profit which includes non-cash items.
Finally, there are universally accepted methods of calculating NPV and IRR, unlike ROCE which people
can have different formula and therefore different percentage leading to different decision. Both NPV
and IRR are widely used in practice, payback and ROCE were mostly used for initial project screening
only (quick look through of how fast to pay back or profitability).
4. Allowing for inflation and taxation in DCF
Relationship between interest rates and inflation
This can seen from Fisher formula which is given in exam, (1 + i) = (1 + r)(1 + h), i = nominal or money
rate of interest, r = real rate of interest, h = inflation rate. Real rate of interest is the interest that is
adjusted for inflation while nominal rate of interest covers inflation as well. In this formula, we can see
that if inflation rises, the nominal rate of interest will also rise and this can be taken as the discount
factor to use.
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The rule to decide whether to use real rate or nominal rate in NPV computation is as follow:
1. If cash flows are expressed in actual number of dollars that will be received or paid on the various
future dates, use nominal rate for discounting.
2. If cash flows are expressed in value of dollar at time 0 (ie. current price level), use real rate for
discounting.
Example: Inflation rate is 10% a year and company requires a minimum return of 20% on the project.
The cash flows of the project are as follow, calculate NPV.
Time
Cash flows ($)
0
(15000)
1
9000
2
8000
3
7000
Solution: Using fisher formula:
(1 + 0.2) = (1 + r)(1 + 0.1)
1 + r = 1.2/1.1, r = 9.1%
In this question, we are given cash flows are various future dates, so use nominal rate.
Time
Cash flows ($)
Discount factor (20%)
Present value ($)
0
(15000)
1
(15000)
1
9000
0.833
7497
2
8000
0.694
5552
3
7000
0.579
4053
NPV
2102
We can also use real rate to discount but we have to convert the future cash flows to value at time 0
first by discounting the future cash flows using the inflation rate as discount factor (as inflation is
related to general price level).
Time
Cash flows ($)
Discount factor (10%)
Cash flows at time 0 price
0
(15000)
1
(15000)
1
9000
0.909
8181
2
8000
0.826
6608
3
7000
0.751
5257
With this information available we can now discount the cash flows using real rate.
Time
Cash flows ($)
Discount factor (9.1%)
Present value ($)
0
(15000)
1
(15000)
1
8181
(1.091)^(-1)
7502
2
6608
(1.091)^(-2)
5553
3
5257
(1.091)^(-3)
4047
NPV
2102
You will get the same or nearly same (due to rounding difference) answer, but in exam you should
know which rate is most suitable to use in the given cash flows.
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If the inflation rate of some cash flows is different than the general level of inflation, you just need to
inflate those cash flows specifically for each year and finally discount at nominal rate. Note that you
should not inflate those cash flows which are affected by general level of inflation as the nominal rate
has taken into account about it.
Taxation effects of relevant cash flows
In investment appraisal, tax is often assumed to be payable one year in arrears (this year tax is paid
next year). You have learnt in taxation that capital allowance (tax-allowable depreciation/writing down
allowance) can reduce the amount of tax payable, the tax benefit of the capital allowance is a relevant
cash flow (not the tax-allowable depreciation!). This tax savings can be calculated by capital allowance
x tax rate. You also know that when you sell an asset, there is either balancing charge (sale price > tax
written down value, this will be taxable profit) or balancing allowance (tax written down value > sale
price, this will be tax allowable loss), again the tax effect (eg. taxable profit x tax rate) on the sale of
asset is a relevant cash flow. In the year of disposal, capital allowance cannot be claimed. If you have
some cost savings, this will subject to extra tax payable.
Example: Psychic Co is considering whether or not to purchase an item of machinery costing $40000
payable immediately. It would have a life of 4 years, after which it would be sold for $5000. The
machinery would create annual cost savings of $14000.
The company pays tax one year in arrears at an annual rate of 30% and can claim capital allowance on
a 25% reducing balance basis. A balancing allowance is claimed in the final year of operation. The
companys cost of capital is 8%. Should the machinery be purchased?
Solution: You must be careful about the taxation effects, company pays tax one year in arrears, so for
example year 1 tax is paid at year 2 and therefore tax benefit of capital allowance is earned at year 2.
Also note that the annual cost savings will increase tax payable and for example, cost savings in year 1
mean that extra tax is paid in year 2.
Capital allowance
Tax benefits
Year
$
Year
$
1
40000 x 0.25
10000
2
10000 x 0.3
3000
2
(40000 10000) x 0.25 7500
3
7500 x 0.3
2250
3
(30000 7500) x 0.25 5625
4
5625 x 0.3
1688
23125
In year 4 (disposal), the reducing balance is $16875 (40000 23125) and the machinery is sold for only
$5000, which mean there is a tax allowable loss of $11875 (16875 5000). The tax benefit of this is in
year 5, ie. $11875 x 0.3 = $3563.
The extra tax payable for annual cost savings is 14000 x 0.3 = $4200.
Time
0
1
2
3
4
5
$
$
$
$
$
$
Machine costs
(40000)
5000
Cost savings
14000
14000
14000
14000
Extra tax on cost savings
(4200)
(4200)
(4200)
(4200)
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1688
16488
0.735
12119
3563
(637)
0.681
(434)
When taxation is ignored in DCF calculations, the discount factor will reflect the pre-tax rate of return
required on capital investments. When tax is included then post-tax required rate of return should be
used. For example, if tax rate is 20% and the pre-tax rate of return is 10%, the post-tax rate of return is
0.1 x 0.8 = 0.08, ie. 8%.
Working capital
This is relatively simple. Increases in working capital would mean more investment in working capital,
so there will be a cash outflow. Remember, only the changes in working capital investment are cash
flows. Working capital is assumed to be recovered at the end of the project.
Example: A project lasts for 5 years with a $20000 working capital requirement at the end of year 1,
rising to $30000 at the end of year 2. State the effect of this.
Solution: $20000 cash outflow will be shown in year 1 and $10000 (30000 20000) cash outflow in
year 2. $30000 cash flow will be shown in year 5 (end of project).
5. Adjusting for risk and uncertainty in investment appraisal
There is a difference between risk and uncertainty. Risk is refers to the variability of returns and
probabilities can be estimated for the possible outcomes. Uncertainty is where probabilities cannot be
estimated objectively and will increase as the project life increases. There are a number of techniques
to deal with risk and uncertainty.
Main techniques of adjusting for risk and uncertainty in investment appraisal
An overview of the techniques is shown here, the application of sensitivity analysis and probability
analysis are shown later (examinable on calculations).
1. Sensitivity analysis this assesses the sensitivity of project NPV to changes in project variables. It
calculates the relative change in a project variable (eg. sales volume) required to make the NPV zero, or
the relative change in NPV for a fixed change in a project variable. Only one variable is considered at a
time. When the sensitivities for each variable have been calculated, the key or critical variables can be
identified. These show where assumptions may need to be checked and where managers could focus
their attention in order to increase the likelihood that the project will deliver its calculated benefits.
However, since sensitivity analysis does not incorporate probabilities, it cannot be described as a way
of incorporating risk into investment appraisal, although it is often described as such.
2. Probability analysis this approach involves assigning probabilities to each outcome of an
investment project, or assigning probabilities to different values of project variables. The range of net
present values that can result from an investment project is then calculated, together with the joint
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probability of each outcome. The net present values and their joint probabilities can be used to
calculate the mean or average NPV (the expected NPV or ENPV) which would arise if the investment
project could be repeated a large number of times. Other useful information that could be provided by
the probability analysis includes the worst outcome and its probability, the probability of a negative
NPV, the best outcome and its probability, and the most likely outcome. Managers could then make a
decision on the investment that took account more explicitly of its risk profile.
3. Simulation this will overcome the problems of having large number of possible outcomes. A
simulation model could be constructed by assigning random numbers to each uncertain variable and
the random numbers must match their probabilities. Random numbers would be generated by
computer program and these would be used to assign values to each uncertain variable.
4. Risk-adjusted discount rate the greater the risk, the greater the risk premium required and
therefore, the discount rate should be higher. In theory, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) will be
useful in this case (CAPM discussed in cost of capital area).
5. Adjusted payback - Payback can be adjusted for uncertainty by shortening the payback period. The
logic here is that as uncertainty increases with the life of the investment project, shortening the
payback period for a project that is relatively risky will require it to pay back sooner, putting the focus
on cash flows that are more certain (less risky) because they are nearer in time. Payback can also be
adjusted for risk by discounting future cash flows with a risk-adjusted discount rate, i.e. by using the
discounted payback method. The normal payback period target can be applied to the discounted cash
flows, which will have decreased in value due to discounting, so that the overall effect is similar to
reducing the payback period with undiscounted cash flows.
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity of each variable = NPV/present value of project variable x 100%. The lower the percentage,
the more sensitive is NPV to that project variable, this means that small changes in that project
variable will influence NPV significantly (it might be useful to think sensitivity as margin of safety).
Management should pay attention to this project variable.
Example: Fire Co has a cost of capital of 8% and is considering a project with the following most likely
cash flows. Measure the sensitivity (%) of the project to changes in the levels of expected costs and
savings.
Year
Purchase of plant
Running costs
Savings
$
$
$
0
(7000)
1
2000
6000
2
2500
7000
Solution: Make sure you calculate the present values of each variable.
Year
Discount factor (8%) PV of plant cost PV of RC PV of S PV of net cash flow
$
$
$
$
0
1.000
(7000)
(7000)
1
0.926
(1852)
5556
3704
29
0.857
(2143)
(3995)
(7000)
Plant cost sensitivity = 560/7000 x 100% = 8%
Running cost sensitivity = 560/3995 x 100% = 14%
Savings sensitivity = 560/11555 x 100% = 4.8%. (Most sensitive)
5999
11555
3856
560
If you are required to calculate the sensitivity of cost of capital, you have to estimate one IRR (it is
better not to use cost of capital as discount factor) and then compare IRR and cost of capital, the
differences in percentage is the sensitivity.
Example: IRR has been estimated to be 18.52% and cost of capital is 8%. Measure the sensitivity of cost
of capital.
Solution: Cost of capital sensitivity = (18.52 8)/8 x 100% = 132%. This means that cost of capital can
increase by 132% before NPV becomes negative.
Also one more thing to note is that when calculating sensitivity of sales volume, NPV should be divided
by present value of contribution because changes in sales volume will affect sales and also variable
costs, ultimately affecting contribution.
Probability analysis
You have learnt that expected value = possible outcome x probability. However in F9 level, joint
probabilities might need to be used when calculating year 2 expected cash flows as year 1 cash flows
are affected by probabilities as well. Joint probabilities are calculated by multiplying both probabilities.
The following example is an extract from June 2010 question 1 with modification.
Example: Water Co has prepared the following forecasts of net cash flows for the next two periods,
together with their associated probabilities.
Period 1 cash flow
Probability
Period 2 cash flow
Probability
$000
$000
8000
10%
7000
30%
4000
60%
3000
50%
(2000)
30%
(9000)
20%
Water Co expects to be overdrawn at the start of the period 1 by $500000. Calculate:
(i) Expected value of the period 1 closing balance.
(ii) Expected value of the period 2 closing balance.
(iii) Probability of negative cash balance at the end of period 2.
(iv) Probability of exceeding the overdraft limit at the end of period 2.
Solution:
(i) It is good that you show the closing balance for each of the different cash flows because this will be
used in (ii) to add with period 2 cash flows.
30
Opening balance
$000
(500)
(500)
(500)
Cash flow
$000
8000
4000
(2000)
Closing balance
$000
7500
3500
(2500)
Probability
0.1
0.6
0.3
Expected value
$000
750
2100
(750)
2100
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The above example is for the lessee, if you are a lessor, lease payment will be your income which is
also taxable. You will buy the asset to lease to the lessee so the cost of asset becomes your cash
outflow but you might be able to claim capital allowance since you are the owner of the asset.
Therefore, if you are the lessor, the evaluation of whether to lease or not depends on the NPV of
leasing to the lessee.
Asset replacement decisions
The decision is to decide how frequently an asset should be replaced with an identical asset. The
equivalent annual cost method can be used to calculate an optimum replacement cycle. Equivalent
annual cost is the average cost of owning an asset over its entire life. We have to first calculate the
present value of cost over one replacement cycle and then convert it to equivalent annual cost by
dividing a suitable present value rate, ie. PV of cost/annuity factor (annuity table is useful).
Example: Megatron Co operates a machine purchased at $25000 which has the following costs and
resale values over its three year life.
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
$
$
$
Running costs (cash expenses)
7500
11000
12500
Resale value (end of year)
15000
10000
7500
The organisations cost of capital is 10%. Assess how frequently the asset should be replaced.
Solution:
Replace every year Replace every 2 years Replace every 3 years
Year Discount factors Cash flow
PV
Cash flow
PV
Cash flow
PV
$
$
$
$
$
$
0
1.000
(25000) (25000)
(25000) (25000)
(25000) (25000)
1
0.909
(7500)
(6818)
(7500) (6818)
(7500)
(6818)
15000
13635
2
0.826
(11000) (9086)
(11000) (9086)
10000
8260
3
0.751
(12500) (9388)
7500
5633
PV of cost over one
replacement cycle
(18183)
(32644)
(44659)
Replacement every year:
Equivalent annual cost = (18183)/0.909 = $(20003)
Replacement every 2 years:
Equivalent annual cost = (32644)/1.736 = $(18804), note 1.736 = 0.909 + 0.826 or you can get this from
annuity table.
Replacement every 3 years:
Equivalent annual cost = (44659)/2.487 = $(17957)
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From these we can see that the equivalent annual cost of replacement every 3 years is the least and
this would mean that optimum replacement policy is to replace the machine every 3 years.
Single period capital rationing
Capital rationing is where a company has a limited amount of money to invest and investments have to
be compared in order to allocate monies most effectively. Capital rationing may occur due to internal
factors (soft capital rationing, eg. reluctant to issue additional share capital, reluctant to raise
additional debt capital, wish only to use retained earnings, reserve capital for projects to be taken in
another period, capital may be needed for other necessary expenditures such as replacement of noncurrent assets) or external factors (hard capital rationing, eg. depressed stock market, restrictions on
bank lending, issue costs, financial position does not attract investors).
Profitability index (PI)
When capital rationing occurs in a single period, projects are ranked in terms of PI to determine the
mix of projects. PI can only be applied to divisible projects (possible to undertake a fraction of a
project), if the projects are non-divisible (discussed later) then do not apply PI. PI = NPV/present value
of capital investment. Therefore, this compares the NPV per investment cost of each project and those
with high PI will be ranked first. However you should exclude the investment cost from NPV, generally
PI of 1.0 is the lowest acceptable index.
Example: There are three projects, A, B and C with investment cost of $20000, $30000 and $40000
respectively and present value of cash inflows of $30000, $35000 and $41000 respectively. The
company has only $55000 available for investment. The projects are divisible. Evaluate how the
projects are to be undertaken.
Solution: Firstly we calculate the PI for each of the projects.
PI for A = 30000/20000 = 1.5
PI for B = 35000/30000 = 1.17
PI for C = 41000/40000 = 1.025
The ranking is first given to A, then B and finally C. After investing for A and B, company still has $5000
to invest for C, which is 12.5% of the investment cost. The decision is therefore to invest fully in A and
B and 12.5% of C.
However note that this method ignores the size of the projects, strategic value and the cash flow
patterns.
Trial and error
For non-divisible projects (impossible to undertake a fraction of a project, eg. building ship), trial and
error would have to be used to test the NPV available from different combinations of projects. For
example, when there are three projects, A, B and C, we will have to calculate the NPV of A + B, A + C
and B + C, the combination with the highest NPV will be undertaken.
34
Business finance
1. Sources of and raising short-term finance
The common sources of short-term finance include overdraft, short-term loan, trade credit and lease
finance.
Overdraft
Overdrafts are subject to an agreed limit and must be paid if bank demand for repayment (repayable
on demand). Overdraft is commonly used as a support for normal working capital, eg. to increase the
current assets or to reduce other current liabilities. The customers only pay interest when they are
overdrawn (credit balance of bank account). The advantage of this is that it wont affect financial
gearing of the company and is cheap.
Short-term loan
It is drawn in full at the beginning of the loan period and repaid at a specified time or in installments.
Loan is actually more suitable for medium term purpose. Interest must be paid unlike overdraft. Once
the loan is agreed, the term of the loan must be adhered to. The advantage of this is that it helps in
better planning since the amount of interest and repayments is known. But note that it will affect the
gearing calculation.
Trade credit
This is one of the main sources of short-term finance as it is like an interest-free borrowing. However,
there will be a risk of losing supplier goodwill and also cost of not accepting early settlement discounts.
Lease finance
Leasing is a good source of finance to acquire an asset through finance lease (long-term finance) or
renting an asset for a while through operating lease (short-term finance). Company can also sell an
asset to a lessor and lease back (sale and leaseback) to get immediate cash (short or long-term finance).
Types of leases are covered earlier.
2. Sources of and raising, long-term finance
The common sources of long-term finance include equity finance, debt finance and venture capital.
Equity finance
This is raised through the issue of ordinary shares to investors. The ordinary shareholders will then able
to attend company general meetings and vote. This means that they have some control of the business.
Debt finance
In simplest meaning, debt financing means borrowing money on credit with a promise to repay the
amount borrowed, plus interest. It is usually in the form of bonds or debentures. It is useful to
differentiate equity and debt finance first before looking at types of debt finance:
35
(i) Cost the cost of equity is higher than the cost of debt. This is because an equity investor takes a
greater risk. If the company goes into liquidation, an equity investor is the last person to be paid any
money. Therefore, an equity investor expects a higher return to reflect the risk he is taking. Debt
finance is cheaper as interest payments are tax deductible but dividends (for equity finance) are not.
Debt finance also has lower risk.
(ii) Control of the business equity is normally invested into the business through the issue of ordinary
shares. Shareholders will share the ownership of the business and carry voting rights. Hence, a
shareholder can participate in business decisions. Debt finance avoids the share of control (company
will still have full control).
(iii) A significant difference between debt and equity is that debt has to be repaid, whereas equity does
not.
(v) Effect on gearing The more debt finance is raised, the higher is the gearing level. The higher equity
finance is raised, the lesser is the gearing level. Gearing = debt/equity or debt/(equity + debt).
Now lets consider different types of debt finance.
Deep discount bonds
These are issued at a price which is at a large discount to the nominal/face value of the loan notes.
They will be redeemable (repaid) at par (or above par) when they eventually mature. This would mean
that investors can get a large capital gain (redemption value issue price) when redeemed. However,
the interest rate is much lower than other types of bonds.
Zero coupon bonds
These are similar to deep discount bonds. They are issued at large discount to their face value and no
interest is payable. Investors gain from the difference between redemption value on maturity and the
issue price. These are also known as zero interest bonds.
Convertible bonds
These give the holder the right to convert to other securities (normally ordinary shares) at a predetermined price and time. The smarter investors will determine whether the conversion rights are
attractive or not by estimating a conversion premium. Conversion premium = current market value
current conversion value.
Example: Leaf Co quoted 10% convertible bonds at $142 per $100 nominal (this means it has a nominal
value of $100 which we normally assumed). The earliest date for conversion is in four years time, at
the rate of 30 ordinary shares per $100 nominal bond. The share price is currently $4.15. Decide
whether the conversion rights are attractive or not.
Solution: We should first calculate the conversion value which is 30 x $4.15 = $124.50. This is the value
of the converted shares if conversion is done.
Conversion premium = $142 - $124.50 = $17.50.
This would mean that if the conversion rights have to be attractive, the share price would have to rise
by $17.50 or 14% (17.50/124.50).
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We can also estimate the market value of convertible bond by discounting the future cash flows of it.
Example: Rock Co quoted 10% convertible bonds with nominal value of $100, interest is payable yearly.
Each $100 of convertible bonds may be converted into 40 ordinary shares in three years time or
redeemed at $110 per $100 nominal value of bond. Assume the required pre-tax rate of return is 8%
and investors will redeem at maturity, estimate the likely current market price for $100 of the bonds.
Solution:
Cash flow
Discount factor (8%) Present value
Year
$
$
$
1
Interest (10% x 100)
10
0.926
9.26
2
Interest
10
0.857
8.57
3
Interest
10
0.794
7.94
Redemption value
110
0.794
87.34
Estimated market value of $100 debt
113.11
Venture capital
Venture capital is risk capital, normally provided in return for an equity stake. Venture capitalists are
prepared to invest in new businesses, small businesses, specific expansion projects or management
buyouts (managers purchase all or parts of a business). They will be less interested in providing the
money required to finance running expenditure and working capital requirements. Also, venture
capitalists will want to involve in running the business because of their need to protect their
investment. Venture capitalists will take into account certain factors in deciding whether or not to
invest:
(i) The nature of companys product the selling potential of products.
(ii) Expertise in production technical ability to produce efficiently.
(iii) Expertise in management commitment, skills and experience.
(iv) Market and competition threat from current competitors and also future new competitors.
(v) Future profits they will want to see the detailed business plan.
(vi) Board membership they will ensure that they are part of representatives of the board of directors
and have say in future strategy.
(vii) Exit routes they will consider potential exit routes in order to realise the investment.
Methods of raising equity finance
To be able to issue shares to the public, company has to go for stock market listing which allows
company to access to wider pool of finance and improve marketability of shares. The unquoted
company can obtain a listing on stock market through initial public offer (IPO) or placing.
Initial public offer
When companies go public for the first time, a large issue will probably takes the form of an IPO. This
is known as flotation. Subsequent issues are likely to be placing or rights issue (discussed later).
However the costs of share issue include underwriting cost, stock market listing fee, professional fees
and advertising cost.
37
Underwriting cost is the cost incurred to get an underwriter who will subscribe those shares which are
not taken-up by the public. Therefore, underwriter is a risk taker.
Placing
Placing means arranging for most of an issue to be brought by a small number of institutional investors
and this is cheaper than IPO.
Setting a share issue price
This will depend on a number of factors such as price of similar quoted companies, current market
conditions, future trading prospects and whether there is a desire for immediate premium. Company
should avoid over-pricing (to avoid undersubscribed) or under-pricing an issue (avoid oversubscribed).
Rights issues
Rights issue is an offer to existing shareholders enabling them to buy more shares, usually at a price
lower than current market price. With this, company does not have to issue to public which is more
costly and can dilute voting rights of existing shareholders. Rights issue can affect EPS as it affects the
number of ordinary shares.
Example: Shock Cos profit after tax is always 20% of capital employed. Directors propose to raise an
additional $126000 from a rights issue. Current market price is $1.80 so it is decided that the rights
price is $1.60. Before the rights issue, the capital employed is $300000 (with 200000 ordinary shares of
$1 each). Calculate the dilution in EPS with the rights issue.
Solution: Earnings before rights issue = 20% x $300000 = $60000. EPS before rights issue =
60000/200000 x 100 = 30c.
Capital employed after rights issue = $426000. Therefore, earnings after rights issue = 20% x 426000 =
$85200.
Number of new shares from rights issue = $126000/$1.60 = 78750.
EPS after rights issue = $85200/278750 x 100 = 30.6c
Dilution of EPS = 30.6 30 = 0.6 cents.
For the shareholders to take up the rights issue, they may consider the value of the rights. Theoretical
ex rights price (TERP, market price after the rights issue in theory) is an important consideration. Value
of rights can be determined by TERP issue price.
Example: Thunder Co decides to make a rights issue of one new share at $1.50 each for every four
shares already held. After announcement of the use, the share price fell to $1.95, but by the time just
prior to the issue being made, it had recovered to $2 per share (actual cum rights price). Calculate TERP
and discuss whether shareholder would exercise the rights.
Solution: As TERP is in theory, the calculation will seem theoretical.
38
4 shares @ $2
$8.00
1 share @ $1.50
$1.50
5
$9.50
It is estimated that 5 shares are worth $9.50, so TERP = 9.5/5 = $1.90. The value of rights = $1.90 $1.50 = $0.40. This means that shareholder can expect to gain $0.40 for each new share he buys so he
might exercise the rights.
The actual ex rights price (actual market price after rights issue) may differ from TERP. The market will
take a view of how profitable the new funds will be invested and will value the shares accordingly.
1. If new funds are expected to generate earnings at the same rate as existing funds, actual ex rights
price will probably be the same as TERP.
2. If new funds are expected to generate earnings at a lower rate, actual ex rights price < TERP.
3. If new funds are expected to generate earnings at higher rate than current funds, actual ex rights
price should rise above the TERP.
Shareholders actions with regard to rights issues
1. Do nothing % of ownership will reduce as others subscribe the shares.
2. Sell the rights - % of ownership will reduce.
3. Fully subscribe - % of ownership will be maintained.
4. Any combination of the above actions.
Example: King, an owner of 1000 shares in Queen Co, has been offered rights issue of 1 for 5 with issue
price of $3.40 and current market price of companys shares is $4 per share. Theoretical ex-rights price
(TERP) is determined as $3.90. Value of rights is $0.50 ($3.90 - $3.40). Identify the actions that King
could take and the effect of these actions on the wealth of King.
Solution: Number of shares from rights issue = 1000/5 = 200.
Value of 1,200 shares after rights issue = 1,200 x 390 = $4680
Value of 1,000 shares before rights issue = 1,000 x 400 = $4000
Value of 1,000 shares after rights issue = 1,000 x 390 = $3900
Cash subscribed for new shares = 200 x 340 = $680
Cash raised from sale of rights = 200 x 0.50 = $100
1. Do nothing
It is obvious that King will lose $100 (4000 3900) in wealth if he ignores the rights issue.
2. Sell the rights
In this case, the wealth of King = $3900 + $100 = $4000. Therefore, part of the wealth has changed
from shares to cash, but there is neutral effect on Kings wealth (original is $4000).
3. Fully subscribe
By subscribing in full, Kings wealth becomes $4680 (4000 + 680). This is the same as the value of 1200
shares after rights issue, so there is neutral effect on Kings wealth.
39
to a share of the income generated by the assets. Most Sukuk give Sukuk holders ownership of the
cash flows but not of the assets themselves.
5. Musharaka is a joint venture or investment partnership between two parties. Both parties provide
capital towards the financing of projects and both parties share the profits in agreed proportions. This
allows both parties to be rewarded for their supply of capital and managerial skills. Losses would
normally be shared on the basis of the equity originally contributed to the venture. Because both
parties are closely involved with the ongoing project management, banks do not often use Musharaka
transactions as they prefer to be more hands off.
4. Internal sources of finance and dividend policy
Internal sources of finance
Internal sources of finance include retained earnings and increasing working capital management
efficiency:
1. Retained earnings company can choose to retain the earnings or paid out as dividends. Retained
earnings belong to shareholders and are classed as equity financing. Retained earnings are a flexible
source of finance, enabling directors to invest without asking for approval by financial providers. There
is no new share issue so no issue cost and no dilution of control. However, shareholders may be
sensitive to the loss of dividends and there is an opportunity cost of retaining the earnings (cash can be
invested to earn more rather than keeping them idle). Retained earnings are no doubt, the most
important single source of finance for companies.
2. Increasing working capital management efficiency there will be savings that can be generated from
more efficient management of trade receivables, inventory, cash and trade payables.
Relationship between dividend policy and financing decision
When deciding how much dividends to be paid out to shareholders, one of the main considerations is
the amount of earnings to retain to meet financing needs. A company must restrict its self-financing
through retained earnings because shareholders should be paid a reasonable dividend.
Factors influencing dividend policy
Legal constraints
The law on distributable profits could require company to pay dividends solely out of accumulated net
realised profits or restrict the amount of dividends payable.
Profitability
A company cannot consistently pay dividends higher than its profit after tax as a healthy level of
retained earnings is needed to finance the continuing business needs of the company.
Liquidity
The company must have enough cash to pay the dividends it declares and the desire to hold cash
would mean lower dividend payout.
41
Shareholder expectations
Shareholders usually expect a consistent dividend policy from the company, with stable dividends each
year or a steady dividend growth. Stable dividends or steady dividend growth are usually needed for
share price stability.
Signaling effect
Dividend declared can be interpreted as a signal from directors to shareholders about the strength of
underlying project cash flows or the future prospects of the company. For example, a cut in dividends
may be treated by shareholders as signaling that the future prospects of the company are weak.
Therefore, companies tend to adopt a stable dividend policy.
Theories of dividend policy
Residual theory
Company should invest any project with positive NPV and dividends should be paid only when these
investment opportunities are exhausted.
Traditional view
Shareholders prefer large dividends to smaller dividends because the dividend is sure but future capital
gains are uncertain.
Irrelevancy theory by Modigliani and Miller (MM)
Shareholders are not concerned with the dividend policy since they can sell a portion of their portfolio
of equities if they want cash. This indicates that an issue of dividend should have little or no impact on
share price, perfect capital market is assumed. MM proposed that in a tax-free world, shareholders are
indifferent between dividends and capital gains, and the value of a company is determined solely by
the earning power of its assets and investments.
Other basic terms
1. Scrip dividends dividend is paid in the form of new shares rather than by cash.
2. Scrip issue/bonus issue issue of new free shares to existing shareholders, by converting equity
reserves to share capital.
3. Stock split for example, each ordinary share of $1 each is split into two shares of 50c each. This
creates cheaper shares with greater marketability.
4. Share repurchase company could purchase its own shares when there is surplus cash or to increase
EPS (reduce number of shares). This could also prevent a takeover or enable a quoted company to
withdraw from the stock market.
5. Gearing and capital structure considerations
Problem of high levels of gearing
Gearing is the amount of debt finance a company uses relative to its equity finance. The greater the
level of debt, the more is the financial risk. Financial risk can be seen from different points of view:
42
1. Company when the debts are too high that company cannot pay back, it will be forced into
liquidation. Therefore, gearing can measure the companys ability to remain in business.
2. Lenders lenders will want higher interest yield to compensate the higher financial risk faced.
3. Ordinary shareholders similar to lenders. They would want a higher expected return from their
shares to compensate for higher financial risk faced. Market value of shares will therefore depend on
gearing.
In short, gearing increases variability of shareholder earnings and risk of financial failure.
Ratio analysis
Ratios can be used to assess the impact of sources of finance on financial position and financial risk.
The relevant ratios include:
1. Financial gearing = long-term debt/capital employed x 100% or market value of long-term
debt/(market value of equity + market value of long-term debt) x 100%. This will indicate the financial
risk. Long-term debt/equity is also a method to calculate financial gearing.
2. Operational gearing = contribution/profit before interest and tax (PBIT). This will indicate the
business risk. For example, if contribution is high but PBIT is low, fixed costs will be high so business
risk will be high. Other ways to calculate include fixed cost/total cost or fixed cost/variable cost.
3. Interest coverage ratio = PBIT/interest. Generally, an interest coverage ratio of less than three times
is considered low, indicating that profitability is too low given the gearing of the company.
4. Debt ratio = total long-term debts/total assets. This indicates the financial risk as well.
Note for financial and business risk
1. Business risk/operating risk possibility of changes in level of profit before interest as a result of
changes in turnover or operating costs. Business risk relates to the nature of business operations.
2. Financial risk/gearing risk possibility of changes in level of distributable earnings as a result of the
need to make interest payments on debt finance or prior charge capital.
Cash flow forecasting
A change in sources of finance can be taken into account in cash flow forecast. If the change in sources
of finance results in significant cash deficit, then company might need to consider other, more
appropriate source of finance.
Effect of gearing on shareholder wealth
A company will only be able to raise finance if shareholders think the returns they can expect are
satisfactory in view of the risks they are taking. If a company can generate returns on capital in excess
of the interest payable on debt, financial gearing will raise the EPS and this affects two ratios:
1. Price earnings ratio (P/E ratio) = market price per share/EPS. This reflects the markets appraisal of
the shares future prospects.
2. Dividend cover = EPS/dividend per share.
Another important ratio is dividend yield which is dividend per share/market price per share x 100%.
With this, we look at the effect of gearing on market price of shares. The changes in dividend yield
43
required by shareholders (required rate of return) can impact the market price of the shares (discussed
more in business valuation topic).
6. Finance for small and medium sized entities (SMEs)
SMEs can be defined as having three characteristics:
1. Firms are likely to be unquoted.
2. Owned by s small number of individuals, typically a family group.
3. They are not micro-businesses (very small businesses that exist to employ just owner).
They are always in need of finance to run or expand the business. However, they have some problems
in obtaining finance.
Financing problems of SMEs
SMEs may not know about the sources of finance available or difficult to obtain finance because of the
risks faced. More specific problems are:
1. Funding gap there is a high failure rate so hard to raise external finance and there are few
shareholders so hard to raise internal finance.
2. Maturity gap it is difficult for SMEs to obtain medium-term loans due to mismatching of the
maturity of assets and liabilities. Longer-term loans are easier to obtain than medium-term loans as
longer loans are easily secured with mortgages against property.
3. Inadequate security banks will be unwilling to increase loan funding without an increase in security
given (which the owners may be unwilling or unable to give).
Government aids to ease financing problems of SMEs
UK government aid includes:
1. Loan guarantee scheme help businesses to get a loan from the bank because bank would be
unwilling to lend as SMEs cannot offer the security that the bank would want.
2. Grants sum of money given to an individual or business for a specific project or purpose. A grant
usually covers only part of the total costs involved.
3. Enterprise capital funds (ECFs) designed to be commercial funds, investing a combination of
private and public money in small high-growth businesses. Each ECF will be able to make equity
investments of up to 2m into eligible SMEs.
Appropriate sources of finance for SMEs
1. Equity owners personal resources or those of family connections are generally the initial sources
of finance. Since the business will have few tangible assets at this stage, it will be difficult to obtain
equity from elsewhere. The external investors would not like to invest because of the inability of SMEs
to offer an exit route.
2. Overdraft financing interest may be more expensive as bank takes the high risk.
3. Bank loans likely to be available only for projects or assets which are in long-term.
4. Trade credit taking extended credit from suppliers is a source of finance for many SMEs. However
this might cause loss of early settlement discounts and loss of supplier goodwill.
44
5. Business angel financing business angels are wealthy individuals who invest directly in small
businesses. However the amount of money available from individual angels may be limited. Business
angels generally have prior knowledge of the industry. As business angel financing occurs in informal
market, it is difficult to arrange with the business angels.
6. Leasing.
7. Factoring.
8. Venture capital venture capitalists are prepared to invest in new businesses and specific expansion
projects. However, venture capitalists will want to involve in running the business because of their
need to protect their investment.
45
Cost of capital
1. Sources of finance and their relative costs
Now, you should understand that every sources of finance have costs, because by raising capital using
these sources, company is required to return an amount to satisfy the providers of funds. Therefore,
cost of capital can be interpreted as the required rate of return (%) by the providers of funds.
Remember that cost of capital can be used in investment appraisal.
Cost of equity and debt
We can split cost of capital into cost of equity and cost of debt. Cost of debt is likely to be lower than
the cost of equity because debt is less risky. Lets look at the creditor hierarchy, the first one will mean
least risky and the last one is the most risky one:
1. Creditors with a fixed charge (secured by specific asset such as land).
2. Creditors with a floating charge (secured by fluctuating class of assets such as receivables account).
3. Unsecured creditors.
4. Preference shareholders (being paid fixed dividend and get paid first in the event of liquidation
compared to ordinary shareholders).
5. Ordinary shareholders.
The cheapest type of finance is debt and the most expensive type of finance is equity. This determines
the differences in cost of equity and cost of debt.
2. Estimating the cost of equity
There are two ways to estimate cost of equity, dividend valuation/growth model and capital asset
pricing model (CAPM).
Dividend valuation/growth model
Dividend valuation model will be used if future dividend per share is expected to be constant, the cost
of equity is therefore the dividend yield, ie. Dividend per share/market price per share.
However, dividend normally increases year by year, so dividend growth model is needed. With this the
dividend yield formula takes into account the growth rate of the dividend, ie. cost of equity = [dividend
per share x (1 + g)/market price per share] + g, g is the growth rate.
Example: A share has a current market value of 96c, and the last dividend was 12c. If the expected
annual growth rate of dividends is 4%, calculate the cost of equity.
Solution: Cost of equity = [12 x (1 + 0.04)/96] + 0.04 = 0.17 = 17%.
Estimating growth rate
There are two ways, either through analysis of the growth in dividends over the past few years (trend)
or Gordons growth model.
By looking at the trend, we can say that dividend in year 1 x (1 + g)^4 = dividend in year 5, ie. 4 years
growth.
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Example: Dividend in 20X1 is $150000 and dividend in year 5 is $262350, calculate the growth rate.
Solution: $150000 x (1 + g)^4 = $262350
(1 + g)^4 = 1.749
1 + g = 1.15
Growth rate = 15%. Every year dividend will increase by 15%.
Gordons growth model gives a formula g = br where b is the proportion of profits retained and r is the
rate of return on new investments. This formula is given in exam.
Example: Leaf Co retains 65% of its earnings for capital investment projects it has identified and these
projects are expected to have an average return of 8%. The current dividend per share is 15c and
market value per share is $1, calculate the cost of equity and use Gordons growth model is estimate
the growth rate in dividend.
Solution: g = 65% x 8 = 5.2%.
Cost of equity = (0.15 x 1.052/1) + 0.052 = 0.2098 = 21%.
Weaknesses of dividend growth model
1. Does not consider risk.
2. The growth rate is only an approximation, dividend do not grow smoothly in reality.
3. Assume there are no issue costs for new shares.
Capital asset pricing model
This model incorporates risk. It assumes that all investors hold diversified portfolios and as a result only
seek compensation (return) for the systematic/market risk (risk that cannot be diversified away) of an
investment. Beta factor measures a shares volatility and systematic risk is measured through this. If a
share price were to risk or fall at double the market rate, it would have a beta factor of 2.0.
The individual components of CAPM are risk-free rate of return, equity/market risk premium and
equity beta. CAPM is the cost of equity as the sum of risk-free rate of return and a risk premium
reflecting the systematic risk of an individual company relative to the systematic risk of the stock
market. This risk premium is the product of the companys equity beta and equity risk premium.
CAPM formula is therefore created as
=
where
is cost of equity,
is
the risk-free rate of return, is the equity beta of the individual security (eg. shares),
is the rate
of return on a market portfolio. Equity risk premium is therefore represented by
and the
risk premium is represented by
. CAPM formula is given in exam.
Example: Shares in Fire Co has a beta of 0.9. The expected returns to the market are 10% and the riskfree rate of return is 4%. What is the cost of equity?
Solution: Cost of equity = 4 + 0.9 (10 4) = 9.4%.
Remember that total risk is divided into systematic and unsystematic risk, beta only measures the
systematic risk.
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Disadvantages of CAPM
1. Unrealistic assumptions.
2. Beta can change over time.
3. Need to determine the equity premium (historical returns are often used in practice).
4. Need to determine the risk-free rate (risk-free investment might be a government security).
Summary of CAPM
Since investors will expect the risk they took to be compensated with more return, CAPM takes this
into account by adding an amount of risk premium to the risk-free rate of return to increase the cost of
equity. It is usually suggested that the CAPM offers a better estimate of the cost of equity than the
dividend growth model.
3. Estimating cost of debt and other capital instruments
When company uses debt to finance capital, there will be cost of debt. We will focus on calculating
cost of debt for irredeemable debt, redeemable debt, convertible debt and preference shares, cost of
bank debt is just the current interest rate. Since interest is tax deductible, we will always take after-tax
cost of debt. Note that we normally assume the nominal value of bond is $100.
Irredeemable debt
Since the debt is irredeemable, interest is paid in perpetuity, interest yield represents the cost of
irredeemable debt, ie. Interest/market price of bond.
Example: Water Co issued bonds of $100 nominal value with annual interest of 9% based on the
nominal value. The current market price of the bonds is $90. What is the cost of the bonds?
Solution: Cost of debt = 9/90 = 10%.
If interest is not paid annually, there would be a need to express the interest yield to annual
percentage.
Example: Rock Co has 12% irredeemable bonds in issue with a nominal value of $100. The market price
is $95 ex interest. Calculate the cost of debt if interest is paid half-yearly.
Solution: 6% is payable half-yearly, so 6/95 is the cost of debt for 6 months, to express it in annual cost:
Cost of debt = (1 + 6/95)^(12/6) 1 = 13%.
Remember that interest can be allowable for tax purpose, so when there is tax (which is normally the
case), the cost of debt should be after-tax, calculated by updating interest yield formula as [interest x
(1 tax rate)]/market price of bond.
Example: Using the first example, when the tax rate is 30%, calculate cost of the bonds.
Solution: Cost of debt = (9 x 0.7)/90 = 7%.
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Redeemable debt
The debt will be redeemed in the year of redemption and interest (allowable for tax) plus capital (not
allowable for tax, this is the nominal value of the bond) will be paid to the debt holder. In this case,
internal rate of return (IRR) of the redeemable debt represents the cost of debt. Remember that IRR is
the rate at which NPV of the cash flows will be zero.
Example: Fire Co has outstanding $660000 of 8% bonds on which the interest is payable annually on 31
December. The debt is due for redemption at par on 1 January 20X6. The market price of the bonds at
28 December 20X2 was $95. Effective tax rate was 30% and tax is paid each 31 December. Calculate
the after-tax cost of debt.
Solution: Firstly, lets try 5% as the discount factor first.
Year
Item
Cash flows
Discount factor (5%) Present value
0
Market value
(95)
1.000
(95)
1-3
Interest (8 x 0.7) (until 31/12/X5) 5.6
2.723
15.2
3
Redemption
100
0.864
86.4
NPV
6.6
Since this NPV is positive, another rate to choose must be higher in order to result in negative NPV.
Lets take 10% as the discount factor.
Year
Item
Cash flows
Discount factor (10%) Present value
0
Market value
(95)
1.000
(95)
1-3
Interest (8 x 0.7) (until 31/12/X5) 5.6
2.487
14
3
Redemption
100
0.751
75.1
NPV
(5.9)
After-tax cost of debt = 5 + [(6.6/(6.6 + 5.9) x (10 5)] = 7.6%.
The market value of the bond can also be estimated by calculating the NPV of the cash flows
discounted at cost of debt.
Example: Using the above example, if cost of debt would rise to 12% during 20X3 and 20X4, estimate
the market value of the bonds at 28 December 20X2.
Solution: It is probable that the market value in December 20X2 will reflect the new rates in future, so
we can take 12% as the discount factor.
Year
Item
Cash flows
Discount factor (12%) Present value
0
Interest (31/12/X2)
5.6
1.000
5.6
1-3
Interest (until 31/12/X5)
5.6
2.402
13.5
3
Redemption
100
0.712
71.2
NPV
90.3
The estimated market value of the bonds would be $90.3.
From the above two examples, the calculation is based on the view of the debt holder, who lends to
the company at first (so market value of the bond is included in year 0) and later receive interest and
finally capital repayment at the year of redemption.
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Convertible debt
The cost of debt calculation will depend on whether or not conversion is likely to happen.
1. If conversion is not expected, the bond is treated as redeemable debt so use IRR to calculate cost of
debt.
2. If conversion is expected, IRR will still be used, but follow the number of years to conversion and the
redemption value is replaced by the conversion value (market value of the shares converted from
debt). Conversion value will also take growth in share price into account and can be calculated as
current share price x (1 + growth rate)^n x shares received on conversion, n is the number of years to
conversion.
Example: Fire Co issued 8% convertible bonds which are due to be redeemed in five years time. They
are currently quoted at $82 per $100 nominal. The bonds can be converted into 25 shares in five years
time. The share price is currently $3.50 and is expected to grow at a rate of 3% per annum. Assume tax
rate is 30%, calculate the cost of debt.
Conversion value = future share price x number of shares received = [$3.50 x (1.03)^5] x 25 = $101.44.
Since redemption value is $100, it is likely that investors will convert as conversion value is higher.
Year
Item
Cash flows
Discount factor (8%) Present value
0
Market value
(82)
1.000
(82)
1-5
Interest (8 x 0.7)
5.6
3.993
22.36
5
Conversion value
101.44
0.681
69.08
NPV
9.44
A higher rate will be chosen to discount, lets take 12%.
Year
Item
Cash flows
Discount factor (12%) Present value
0
Market value
(82)
1.000
(82)
1-5
Interest (8 x 0.7)
5.6
3.605
20.19
5
Conversion value
101.44
0.567
57.52
NPV
(4.29)
Cost of debt = 8 + [(9.44/(9.44 + 4.29) x (12 8)] = 10.75%.
Preference shares
For irredeemable preference shares, future cash flows are the dividend payments in perpetuity.
Therefore, we can use dividend yield to calculate the cost of debt, ie. dividend/market price of
preference share capital. Remember that dividend does not attract tax relief.
For redeemable preference shares, cost of debt is calculated using IRR.
4. Estimating the overall cost of capital
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
WACC is the average cost of companys finance weighted by the total market value or book value of
each source of finance. There are two methods to weight the source of finance, ie. market value and
book value weightings. Market values should always be used unless unavailable (unquoted company)
because book value is based on historical costs.
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tax rate, e is equity, d is debt, k is cost. Since the formula includes (1 T) which means after-tax, the
cost of debt to be included, ie.
must be before-tax cost of debt.
Example: The following information relates to Rock Cos cost of finance and corporate tax rate is
currently 30%.
Source
Cost of finance
Market value ($m)
Equity
17%
23
Preference shares
18.6%
5
Debt
8.6%
14
42
The above cost of finance is before-tax. Calculate the WACC for Rock Co.
Solution: Do not combine cost of preference shares with the cost of debt, we will modify the formula.
WACC =
You dont actually need to refer to the formula, lets use the above example again but with different
approach and more in line with the definition of WACC.
Example: The following information relates to Rock Cos cost of finance and corporate tax rate is
currently 30%.
Source
Cost of finance
Market value ($m)
Equity
17%
23
Preference shares
18.6%
5
Debt
8.6%
14
42
The above cost of finance is before-tax. Calculate the WACC for Rock Co.
Solution: Make the cost of finance after-tax and do the following.
Source
Cost of finance
Market value ($m)
Cost x market value
Equity
17%
23
3.91
Preference shares
13%
5
0.65
Debt
6%
14
0.84
42
5.40
WACC = 5.4/42 x 100% = 12.86%. The weighting is done at cost of finance x market value.
Marginal cost of capital
The word marginal tells you about variable. It is calculated when there are changes to the cost of
finance and market value of the source of finance. It is argued that WACC should be used to evaluate
projects. However where gearing levels fluctuate significantly or finance for new project carries a
significant different level of risks, it is good to use marginal cost of capital to evaluate new project. The
following example is an extension of the above example.
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Example: Rock Co decided to invest in a new project which will increase the cost of equity to 18% and
cost of debt to 10%. The market value of equity will then be $24m and market value of debt will be
$20m. Calculate new WACC and marginal cost of capital.
Solution:
Source
Cost of finance
Market value ($m)
Cost x market value
Equity
18%
24
4.32
Preference shares
13%
5
0.65
Debt
10%
20
2.00
49
6.97
New WACC = 6.97/49 x 100% = 14.2%.
Marginal cost of capital = (6.97 5.4)/(49 42) x 100% = 22.4%.
WACC for investment appraisal
WACC can be used as discount rate in investment appraisal when:
1. Project has the similar business risk as the existing operations of the company.
2. Project has the similar financial risk as the existing operations of the company.
3. Project should be small in comparison with the size of the company.
Be prepared to face question where cost of equity, cost of debt and WACC come together. Theoretical
aspect must not be ignored.
5. Capital structure theories and practical considerations
Traditional view of capital structure and its assumptions
Some believe that optimal capital structure (mix of equity and debt finance) will be the point at which
WACC is lowest. Cost of equity will rise when financial risk increases. As the level of gearing increases,
cost of debt remains unchanged up to a certain level of gearing, after this level the cost of debt will
increase. The assumptions used in this theory include:
1. Company pays out all its earnings as dividends.
2. Taxation is ignored.
3. Earnings and business risk are constant in perpetuity.
4. No issue cost of issuing debt or shares.
Market imperfections
Companies are discouraged from following MMs with tax model approach to capital structure as MM
does not take into account factors such as bankruptcy costs, agency costs and tax exhaustion.
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Bankruptcy costs
MMs theory assumes perfect capital markets so a company can always raise finance and avoid
bankruptcy. In reality, the higher the gearing level, bankruptcy risk increases. Shareholders and debt
holders will then require a higher rate of return as compensation which increase cost of equity and
debt.
Agency costs
As gearing increases, debt holders would want to impose more constrains on the management to
safeguard their increased investment. They might impose restrictive covenants in the loan agreement
which for example set the minimum level of liquidity of the company to restrict companys freedom.
Debt holders who are concerned about the increased gearing level will incur more agency costs (cost to
monitor the agent).
Tax exhaustion
Companies become tax exhausted when interest payments are no longer tax deductible as additional
interest payments exceed profits made. In this case, cost of debt will rise from Kd (1 T) to Kd.
Pecking order theory
This theory states that firms will prefer retained earnings to any other source of finance, and then will
choose debt, and last of all equity. The order of preference will be:
1. Retained earnings.
2. Straight debt.
3. Convertible debt.
4. Preference shares.
5. Equity shares.
Company follows pecking order theory because:
1. Minimise issue costs retained earnings have no issue costs, issuing debt is cheaper than issuing
equity.
2. Minimise time and expense involved in persuading outside investors.
3. Some managers believe that debt issues have a better signaling effect than equity issues. There is an
information asymmetry where managers (insiders) know more about companies prospects than the
outsiders. Therefore, market depends on the signal shown by the company to interpret about the
company. For example, market will interpret debt issues as a sign of confidence, that businesses are
confident of making sufficient profits to fulfill their obligations on debt and that they believe that the
shares are undervalued.
6. Impact of cost of capital on investments
Company value and cost of capital
The market value of a company depends on its cost of capital. The lower a companys WACC, the
higher the NPV of its future cash flows and therefore the higher will be the company value.
54
, if without tax then remove the (1 T). To convert the ungeared beta (asset
beta) to geared beta (equity beta), simply modify the formula of asset beta to
Example: Two companies are identical in every respect except for their capital structure. Water Co has
a debt to equity ratio of 1:3 and its equity has a value of 1.20. Fire Co has a debt to equity ratio of 2:3.
Currently Fire Co is considering a project with risk-free rate of return of 4% and equity risk premium of
6%. Calculate the specific-project cost of equity for Fire Cos project.
Solution: We will start with ungearing the equity beta of Water Co. Note that it is not necessary to put
market value of equity or debt in $ inside the formula.
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We can now apply this to the CAPM formula to determine specific-project cost of equity.
Cost of equity =
= 4 + 1.427 x 6 = 12.6%.
Limitations of beta formula
1. Difficult to identify a proxy company with identical operating characteristics.
2. Estimates of beta values from share price information are not wholly accurate as they are based on
statistical analysis of historical data.
3. There may be differences in beta values between firms caused by different size of the organization
and debt capital not being risk-free.
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Business valuations
1. Nature and purpose of the valuation of business and financial assets
There are a number of different ways of putting a value on a business or on shares of unquoted
company. A share valuation will be necessary when (examples):
1. In a takeover bid (another company (A) wishes to acquire this company (B)), offer price might be
estimated at fair value which is in excess of current market price of Bs shares in Stock Exchange.
2. Unquoted company wishes to go public, issue price of the shares have to be decided.
3. Holding company wishes to sell subsidiary and is negotiating the price.
4. Company is in a liquidation situation.
Information required for valuation
There are many, some are listed below:
1. Past financial statements information.
2. Aged accounts receivable summary.
3. List of marketable securities.
4. Inventory summary.
5. Budgets for a minimum of five years.
6. List of major customers.
However there are limitations to some of the information. For example, some information may be out
of date or subjective.
Market capitalisation
This is an important term representing an estimation of the value of business obtained by current price
per share x number of ordinary shares.
2. Models for the valuation of shares
Three models to look into, ie. asset-based, income-based and cash flow-based valuation models.
Asset-based valuation models
Net assets valuation method provides a lower limit for the value of a company. By itself it is unlikely to
produce the most realistic value. In this model, value of share = (total assets total liabilities)/number
of ordinary shares, ie. net assets per share. Intangible assets are excluded as they do not represent the
worth of companys physical assets, but if they have a market value (eg. license which could be sold),
then they can be included.
The choice of asset values to use includes:
1. Net book value (statement of financial position basis) unlikely to be realistic.
2. Net realisable value suitable if assets are to be sold or business as a whole broken up.
3. Net replacement cost suitable if assets are to be used on an on-going basis.
57
Current market capitalisation of Danoca Co is $16.5m ($3.3 x 5m). The P/E ratio value of Danoca Co is
$20m, higher than the current market capitalisation due to the difference in P/E ratio of the average
sector and Danoca Co. This indicates that there is a need to improve financial performance of Danoca
Co after acquisition so that Phobis Co and its shareholders will benefit from the acquisition.
Dividend growth model value is less than current market capitalisation of Danoca Co. Dividend growth
model value represents the minimum value that Danoca shareholders will accept if Phobis Co makes an
offer to buy their shares. This difference may reflect the belief of stock market that a takeover bid is
imminent as shareholders are prepared to accept a value lower than market capitalisation but it could
also be due to inaccuracy of cost of equity or expected dividend growth rate. (Referred to answer)
The dividend models made a number of assumptions:
1. Investors act rationally and homogeneously failed to take into account that expectations of
shareholders may be different.
2. Other influences on share prices are ignored.
3. Companys earnings will increase sufficiently to maintain dividend growth levels.
4. Dividends either show no growth or constant growth.
5. No increase in cost of capital.
One obvious problem is when valuing company that doesnt pay dividends.
Discounted cash flow basis
Appropriate when one company intends to buy the assets of another company and to make further
investments in order to improve cash flows in the future. Value of investment = expected after-tax
cash flows discounted to present values at appropriate cost of capital. This value of investment will be
the maximum price that company is willing to pay for the shares of another company.
3. The valuation of debt and other financial assets
Again we will play with the formulas of the cost of debt here. We always assume that debt is quoted
with $100 nominal value.
Irredeemable debt
The cost of irredeemable debt, as mentioned before, is the same as interest yield. When there is tax,
cost of debt = [interest x (1 T)]/market price of bond ex interest, so market price of bond = [interest x
(1 T)]/cost of debt. Remember that ex interest means excluding any interest payment that might
soon be due.
Redeemable debt
Valuation of redeemable debt depends on future expected receipts (interest and redemption).
Therefore, the market price of bond = NPV of the cash flows.
60
Example: Fire Co issued some 9% bonds, which are now redeemable at par in three years time.
Investors now require a redemption yield of 10%. What will be the current market value of each $100
of bond?
Solution:
Year
Items
Cash flows ($) Discount factor (10%) Present value ($)
1-3
Interest
9
2.487
22.38
3
Redemption
100
0.751
75.10
NPV
97.48
Each $100 of bond has a current market value of $97.48.
Convertible debt
If conversion is not expected, then market value of bond = NPV of cash flows. If conversion is expected,
then market value of bond is still the NPV of cash flows, but follow the number of years to conversion
and also redemption value is replaced with conversion value (refer back to cost of debt topic if you are
confused).
Example: Water Co issued 9% convertible bond which can be converted in five years time into 35
ordinary shares or redeemed at par on the same date. An investors required return is 10% and the
current market price of the underlying share is $2.50 which is expected to grow by 4% per annum.
Estimate the current market value of convertible bond assuming that conversion will occur.
Solution: Conversion value = 35 x $2.5 x (1.04)^5 = $106.46.
Year
Items
Cash flows ($) Discount factor (10%) Present value ($)
1-5
Interest (9% x $100)
9
3.791
34.12
5
Conversion
106.46
0.621
66.11
Current market price of convertible bond
100.23
Preference shares
Remember that tax is not allowed for the fixed dividend payment. Cost of preference shares = dividend
payment/market price of bond so market price of bond = dividend/cost of preference shares.
4. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and practical considerations in the valuation of shares
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)
EMH is the hypothesis that the stock market reacts immediately to all the information that is available.
Stock market efficiency usually refers to the way in which the prices of traded financial securities
reflect relevant information. Types of efficiency include:
1. Operational efficiency requires that transaction costs are low and do not hinder investors in the sale
or purchase of securities.
2. Informational efficiency means that relevant information is widely available at low cost.
3. Pricing efficiency refers to the ability of capital markets to process information quickly and
accurately, and arises as a consequence of operational efficiency and informational efficiency.
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4. Allocative efficiency means that capital markets are able to allocate available funds to their most
productive use and arises as a result of pricing efficiency.
Most of the research into market efficiency has been into pricing efficiency.
There are three forms of efficiency: weak, semi-strong and strong-form efficiency.
Weak-form efficiency
This is when research indicates that share prices fully and fairly reflect past information. Since new
information arrives unexpectedly, share price movements should follow a random walk. Investors
cannot predict share prices by analysing past information because of the random walking share price.
Semi-strong form efficiency
This is when research indicates that share prices fully and fairly reflect public information (published)
as well as past information. Investors cannot generate abnormal returns by analysing either public
information, such as published company reports, or past information, since research shows that share
prices respond quickly and accurately to new information as it becomes publicly available. Therefore,
individuals cannot beat the market by reading the newspapers or annual reports, since the
information contained in these will be reflected in the share price. Evidence suggests that most leading
stock markets are semi-strong efficient.
Strong-form efficiency
This is when research indicates that share prices fully and fairly reflect all information, which includes
private information. Even investors with access to insider information cannot generate abnormal
returns in such a market. Stock markets are not held to be strong form efficient. It is unlikely that
strong-form exists in reality.
Consequences of market efficiency
1. There is no right or wrong time to issue new shares since share prices are always fair (in theory).
2. Managers will not be able to deceive the market by the timing or presentation of new information,
such as annual reports or analysts briefings, since the market processes the information quickly and
accurately to produce fair prices. Managers should therefore simply concentrate on making financial
decisions which increase the wealth of shareholders.
3. There are no bargains to be found in capital markets (in theory).
Practical considerations in the valuation of shares and businesses
A number of factors to consider in relation to shares valuation.
Fundamental analysis theory of share values
It states that the realistic market price of a share can be derived from a valuation of estimated future
dividends. Value of share will be the present value of all future expected dividends discounted at the
shareholders cost of capital.
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63
Risk management
1. The nature and types of risk and approaches to risk management
In F9, we deal with foreign currency risk and interest rate risk. We start with some introductions.
Types of foreign currency risk
1. Translation risk this risk occurs when company has a foreign branch or subsidiary and the currency
of foreign subsidiarys country weaken. It is the risk that when company consolidates accounts, there
will be exchange losses when the accounting results of foreign subsidiary are translated into home
currency. (IAS 21 requires holding company to translate the account of foreign subsidiary to home
currency in consolidation).
2. Transaction risk this arises when company is importing or exporting. It is the risk of adverse
exchange rate movements between the date the price is agreed and the date cash is received/paid,
arising during normal international trade. For example, in June a UK company agrees to sell an export
to Australia for 100,000 Australian $ (A$), payable in three months. The exchange rate at the date of
the contract is A$/1.80 so the company is expecting to receive 100,000/1.8 = 55,556. If, however,
the A$ weakened over the three months to become worth only A$/2.00, then the amount received
would be worth only 50,000.
3. Economic risk this refers to the effect of exchange rate movements on the international
competitiveness of a company and refers to the effect on the present value of future cash flows. For
example, if a company is exporting (lets say from the UK to a eurozone country) and the euro weakens
from say /1.1 to /1.3 (getting more euros per pound sterling implies that the euro is less valuable,
so weaker) any exports from the UK will be more expensive when priced in euros. So goods where the
UK price is 100 will cost 130 instead of 110, making those goods less competitive in the European
market.
Types of interest rate risk
1. Gap exposure this arises from the risk of adverse changes in interest rates between the time
interest is paid for debt and the time interest is earned from investments. Companys exposure to
interest rate risk can be identified using gap analysis (grouping together assets and liabilities which are
sensitive to interest rate changes according to their maturing dates). A negative gap occurs when
company has larger amount of interest-sensitive liabilities maturing than it has interest-sensitive assets
maturing at the same time while positive gap is the opposite of this. Therefore, with a negative gap,
company faces exposure if interest rates rise by the time of maturity. With positive gap, company faces
exposure if interest rates fall by maturity.
2. Basis risk this is the risk when yields (interest receivable) on assets and costs (interest payable) of
liabilities are based on different bases, such as LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate, this is the rate
of interest applied to wholesale money market lending between London banks) versus U.S. prime rate.
Different bases may move at different rates or in different directions, affecting the amount receivable
or payable (not applicable for fixed interest rate debt, only apply to floating rate).
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Fisher effect
This has been covered earlier that the relationship between inflation rate and interest rate are:
(1 + i) = (1 + r)(1 + h) where i is nominal/money interest rate, r is the real interest rate and h is the
inflation rate.
International Fisher effect
This states that differences in nominal interest rate between countries provide an unbiased predictor
of future changes in spot exchange rates. The international Fisher effect can be expressed as:
where
Four-way equivalence
This model states that in equilibrium, differences between forward and spot rates, differences in
interest rates, expected differences in inflation rates and expected change in sport rates are equal to
one another (dont worry about the formula first).
Revision
To refresh your mind, maybe it is a good idea to look back at the relationship between interest rate,
inflation rate and exchange rate.
1. When inflation rate increases, interest rate will be increased so that demand for money will fall (this
discourages people to spend). Inflation is generally caused by people spending more.
2. When exchange rate is low, interest rate can be increased to attract foreign investors to invest which
might help to improve the currency values and therefore the exchange rate.
Forecasting exchange rates
We will use PPP and IRP to forecast exchange rates.
Purchasing power parity
Expected spot rate is forecast from the current spot rate by multiplying the ratio of expected inflation
rates in the two countries being considered. Therefore, the formula is:
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Yield can mean interest rate/market price (running yield) or the discount rate that makes present value
of future interest payments and redemption value equal to current market price, ie. IRR (redemption
yield or cost of debt). Long-term debt is usually expected to be more expensive than short-term debt
(ie. yield curve slopes upward, meaning the lender can yield more for longer-term debt). This is
because lender faces greater risk that borrower may not be able to repay interest payments or
principal amount.
Expectations theory
Forward interest rate is due only to expectations of interest rate movements. If interest rates are
expected to fall, short-term rates might be higher than long-term rates (so that lender maintains
sufficient yield %) and yield curve would be downward sloping.
Liquidity preference theory
Liquidity preference means investors/lenders prefer cash now and want compensation in the form of
higher return for being unable to use their cash now. Therefore, the long-term interest rates do not
only reflect investors assumptions about future interest rates but also include a premium to
compensate investors for added risk.
Market segmentation theory (segmented market theory)
This theory states that most investors have set preferences regarding the length of maturities that they
will invest in (investors are interested in bonds of only one maturity). For example, bank prefers shortterm debt and pension funds prefer long-term debt. Slope of the yield curve will reflect conditions in
different segments of the market. Even if short term rate increases in any period of time, this theory
implies that investors will not shift from long term bonds to short term bonds in order to enjoy higher
rate in the short run.
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Example: A UK importer imports from a foreign seller on 1 April for 26500 Swiss francs and has to pay
in one months time, on 1 May. He can arrange a forward exchange contract with his bank on 1 April,
whereby the bank undertakes to sell the importer 26500 Swiss francs on 1 May, let say forward rate of
SFr2.6400 = 1. With this, the UK importer must pay at this forward rate on 1 May, amount payable is
26500/2.6400 = 10037.88.
1. If spot rate on 1 May is lower than 2.6400, the importer would have successfully protected himself
against the weakening of sterling.
2. If spot rate on 1 may is higher than 2.6400, importer would have to pay more. The extra cost is
unavoidable because forward contract is binding.
Let say later the seller fails to deliver the goods as specified, the forward exchange contract must still
be satisfy. With this, bank will sell the customer 26500 Swiss Francs at 10037.88 and buy back the
unwanted currency at the spot rate. Importer could win or lose depending on the spot rate at the time.
This process is called closing out where bank arranges for customer to perform his part of the foreign
exchange contract by either selling or buying the missing currency at spot rate.
Money market hedging
Money market hedging is the use of borrowing and lending transactions in foreign currencies to lock in
the home currency value of a foreign currency transaction. This involves borrowing in one currency,
converting the money borrowed into another currency and putting the money on deposit until the
time the transaction is completed, hoping to take advantage of favourable exchange rate movements.
Example will be required to understand how it works.
1. Foreign currency receipt (aim to create a foreign currency liability and use the foreign currency
receipt to pay it).
Example: A UK manufacturer exported to a US company and in 3 months time he will receive US$2m.
To face no currency risk, this US$2m can be used to settle a US$2m liability. UK manufacturer can
create a US$2m liability by borrowing US$2m now and repaying that in 3 months time with the
US$ receipt. Interest rates information is important, let say US$ 3 months interest rate is 0.54% - 0.66%
(this amount is always annualised). Same rule, UK manufacturer will be charged at higher rate, ie. 0.66%
per annum. The amount that UK manufacturer actually need to borrow now is:
X (1 + 0.66%/4) = 2000000, X = US$1996705. This can be changed now from US$ to at the current
spot rate, say US$/ 1.4701, to give 1358210 (1996705/1.4701). This 1,358,210 is certain, UK
manufacturer can deposit it into the bank or use it elsewhere.
Finally, when US$2m is received from US company, it will be used to repay the loan which should have
increased to US$2m from US$1996705.
2. Foreign currency payment (aim to create a foreign currency asset and use this to pay the foreign
currency payment, cost involved is the borrowings to create the foreign currency asset).
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Example: A UK company owes a Danish creditor Kr3500000 in three months time. Spot exchange rate
is Kr7.5509 Kr7.5548 per 1. The company can borrow in Sterling for 3 months at 8.6% per annum
and can deposit Kroner for 3 months at 10% per annum. What is the cost in pounds with a money
market hedge?
Solution: Interest rates for 3 months are 2.15% (8.6%/4) to borrow in pounds and 2.5% (10%/4) to
deposit in kroner. Amount to borrow = amount to deposit = X (1 + 2.5%) = 3500000, X = Kr3414634.
Convert this to will be 3414634/7.5509 = 452215 (spot rate given will always be the bad one).
Company has to borrow 452215 and with 3 months interest will have to repay:
452215 x 1.0215 = 461938.
In 3 months, deposit (Kr3414634 should have increased to Kr3500000) will be taken out to pay the
Danish creditor and company will pay 461938 to the bank.
The choice between forward exchange contract (forward market) and money markets is generally
made on the basis of which method is cheaper, with other factors being of limited significance. We
shall take a look at June 2011 question 4 as example.
Example: ZPS Co, whose home currency is the dollar, took out a fixed-interest peso bank loan several
years ago when peso interest rates were relatively cheap compared to dollar interest rates. Economic
difficulties have now increased peso interest rates while dollar interest rates have remained relatively
stable. ZPS Co must pay interest of 5,000,000 pesos in six months time. The following information is
available.
Per $
Spot rate: pesos
12500 pesos 12582
Six-month forward rate: pesos
12805 pesos 12889
Interest rates that can be used by ZPS Co:
Borrow
Deposit
Peso interest rates:
100% per year
75% per year
Dollar interest rates:
45% per year
35% per year
Calculate whether a forward market hedge or a money market hedge should be used to hedge the
interest payment of 5 million pesos in six months time. Assume that ZPS Co would need to borrow any
cash it uses in hedging exchange rate risk.
Solution: The cost of both methods has to be compared.
Forward market hedge
Cost = 5000000/12.805 = $390472 (always take the rate that is bad).
Money market hedge
The aim is to create a 5000000 peso asset in 6 months time. The amount of pesos required to deposit
is X (1 + 7.5%/2) = 5000000, X = 4819277 pesos. Therefore, the $ to borrow this amount will be
4819277/12.500 = $385542. This is the cost now, we have to include the interest cost for 6 months, ie.
385542 x (1 + 4.5%/2) = $394217.
Comparing the cost, forward market hedge is cheaper by $3745 and should be used to hedge.
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Currency options
This gives holders the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call option) or sell (put option) foreign
currency at specific date at a specific rate. An advantage of currency options over currency futures is
that currency options do not need to be exercised if it is disadvantageous for the holder to do so.
Holders of currency options can take advantage of favourable exchange rate movements in the cash
market and allow their options to lapse. The initial fee (non-returnable premium) paid for the options
will still have been incurred and it depends on the strike price (exercise price of call or put option),
maturity, liquidity in the market and so on.
Example: A UK exporter is expecting to be paid US$1m for a piece of machinery to be delivered in 90
days. If the strengthens against the US$ the UK firm will lose money, as it will receive fewer for the
US$1m. However, if the weakens against the US$, then the UK company will gain additional money.
Say that the current rate is US$/1.40 and that the exporter will get particularly concerned if the rate
moved beyond US$/1.50. The company can buy call options at an exercise price of US$/ = 1.50,
giving it the right to buy at US$1.50/. If the dollar weakens beyond US$/1.50, the company can
exercise the option thereby guaranteeing at least 666,667. If the US$ stays stronger or even
strengthens to, say, US$/1.20, the company can let the option lapse (ignore it) and convert at 1.20, to
give 833,333.
Currency swaps
This is appropriate for hedging exchange rate risk over a longer period of time. It involves exchange of
principal and interest of a loan in one currency for the same in another currency. It begins with an
exchange of principal, although this may be a notional exchange rather than a physical exchange.
During the life of the swap agreement, the counterparties undertake to service each others foreign
currency interest payments. At the end of the swap, the initial exchange of principal is reversed.
4. Hedging techniques for interest rate risk
Interest rate risk can be managed using internal hedging in the form of asset and liability management,
matching and smoothing or using external hedging instruments such as forward rate agreements and
derivatives.
Interest rate risk management methods
Matching and smoothing
Matching (commonly used by banks) is where assets and liabilities with a common interest rate are
matched. For example, one subsidiary could invest in money market at LIBOR and another subsidiary
could borrow through the same market at LIBOR. When LIBOR increases, ones borrowing cost and
anothers returns will increase, therefore matched.
Smoothing is where company keeps a balance between its fixed rate and floating rate borrowing.
Therefore, when the interest rates increase, floating rate loan will be more expensive but this will be
compensated by the less expensive fixed rate loan.
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loan (floating rate). If both parties are in different countries, a fixed to floating rate currency swap
(combination of currency and interest rate swap) can be done.
Arranging a swap is cheaper than terminating original loan (termination fee is high) and taking out a
new loan (involve issue costs), therefore companies (normally banks and other types of institution)
swap interest payments with another companies.
Interest rate options
This grants the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to deal at an agreed interest rate (strike rate) at
a future maturity date. On the date of expiry of the option, buyer must decide whether or not to
exercise the right. If a company needs to hedge borrowing, it will purchase a put option to obtain the
right to pay interest at strike rate, so if the interest rate rises at the future date, company will exercise
this option. Similarly, if a company needs to hedge lending, it will purchase a call option.
Interest rate caps, collars and floors
Caps set a ceiling to the interest rate, floor sets a lower limit and collar is the simultaneous purchase of
a cap and sale of floor.
An interest rate cap will compensate the purchaser of the cap if interest rates rise above a
predetermined rate (strike rate) while an interest rate floor will compensate the purchaser if rates fall
below a predetermined rate. Both are also interest rate options.
Interest rate collar is a combination of a purchase of an interest rate cap and a sale of an interest rate
floor to create a range for interest rate fluctuations between the cap and floor strike prices to
minimise the risk of a significant rise in the floating rate. This limits the cost for the company as it
receives a premium for the option (floor) sold.
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