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HomeUncategorizedTailingsdamfailuresandthepriceofcommodities
18NOVEMBER2009

Tailingsdamfailuresandthepriceofcommodities
Postedbydrdave

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DavePetleyisthePro
ViceChancellor
(Researchand
Enterprise)atthe
UniversityofEastAnglia
intheUnitedKingdom.
Hisblogprovidesa
commentaryonlandslideeventsoccurring
worldwide,includingthelandslides
themselves,latestresearch,and
conferencesandmeetings.

AcoupleofweeksagotheUniversityofAlbertahostedaconferenceentitledTailingsandMineWaste2009.
Impressively,allofthepresentationsfromthemeetinghavebeenpostedonlineonanFTPsitehere.Mostofthe
presentationsfocusupontechnicalaspectsoftailingsfacilitydesign,butthereisaveryinterestingtalkfrom
MichaelDavisandToddMartinfromAMEConlineasapdfhere.Thispresentationexaminestherelationship
betweentheoccurrenceoftailingsdamfailuresandtheeconomiccycleofcommodities.IshouldsayupfrontthatI
findpartsofthepresentationratheruncomfortable(especiallythebackslappingaspectsofthelastslideregarding
theoilsandsindustry),butthecorepointofthepresentationiscertainlythoughtprovoking.
Inthepresentationtheynotethatbetween1968andAugust2009therewere143documentedtailingsdamfailures
worldwide.However,theoccurrenceofthesefailuresappearstobecyclicwithtime,withpeaksintheperiods
19768,19846,19902,19982000and2008now.Theycomparedthesepeakswiththecyclicityoftheglobal
copperandgoldprices.Thekeypartofthepresentationisatablethatcomparedthetimingofthepeaks:

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Theauthorsconclusionisthatthereisa
relationshipbetweenthepeakincommoditiespricesandtheoccurrenceoftailingsdamfailures,withalag
betweenthetwoofabouttwoyears.ImustadmitthatIamalittleunconvincedbythestatisticsofthisanalysis(I
wouldliketoseeaproperregressionanalysistoseewhetherthislinkisstatisticallyvalidandtobefairthe
authorsrecognisethatthisisnotascientificallyrigorousanalysis),butthecentralpointisonethatiscertainly
verythoughtprovoking.Increasedcommoditypricesdriveincreasedexploitation.Therelationshipbetweenthe
peakinpricesanthepeakinaccidentsisascribedbytheauthorsto:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Therushtominequicklymeansthatdesignandconstructionstandardsmaybelow
Rapidturnoverofkeystaffasnew(presumablylucrative)opportunitiesariseduringtheboom
Theboomdrivesthedevelopmentofresourcesinareasthatareknowntobedifficult
aftertheboomtherearepressurestocutcostsascommoditypricesdecline
Theboomdrivestheuseofinappropriatedesignsimportedfromotherlocations
Theremaybealackofindependentreview,presumablytoavoidthetimedelaysandcosts
associatedwiththis.

http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2009/11/18/tailingsdamfailuresandthepriceofcommodities/

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Theimplicationsofallthisaresobering.Themostrecentboomendedin2008,andtheaveragelagis25months
forcopperand29monthsforgold.Thisshouldmeanthatthepeakintailingsdamfailuresshouldbeexpected12
to30monthsfromnow.
HattiptoJackCaldwellsexcellentIthinkMiningblogforhighlightingthispaper.

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Mylatestpaper:hillslope
preconditioning
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Wyoming

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Tailingsdamfailuresandthepriceofcommodities

2Comments
hypocentresaidon18November2009
Theremightbeotherkinematicissueshereaswellamorerapidfillingoftailingsponds
inboomtimes
LogintoReply
Anonymoussaidon19November2009
ThepaperbyDaviesandMartinseemsbothverywellconceivedandsomewhattonguein
cheek.However,themainconclusionsareindeedsoberingandlikelyveryastuteand
accurate.Whattheyaresayingisthatthereareonlyenoughgooddesignersandoperators
togoaroundforaverageconditionsandboomconditionsstretchthoseresourcestothe
pointwhereotherresourcesareusedandtheresultscanbe(andhavebeen)catastrophic.
Addedthekinematicissuesthathypocentrenotesabove(goodpoint!),andyouhaveall
theingredientsyouneedforafailure.Seemsalotofeffortbyminingcompanies,
consultants,regulatorsandeducatorsoverpastyearstolookattechnicalsideofmine
tailingsfailuresbutlittleattentiontothehumanequationrootcause.KudostoDaviesand
Martinforbringingwhatislikelythekeydrivertotheissuestolightandhavinganability
tobackitupwithinterestingdata.
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