Capitolul I.

EVOLUIA INFLAIEI
Grafic: Evoluia inflaiei
Data
dec.11
ian.12
feb.12
mar.12
apr.12
mai.12
iun.12
iul.12
aug.12
sep.12
oct.12
nov.12
dec.12
ian.13
feb.13
mar.13
apr.13
mai.13
iun.13
iul.13
aug.13
sep.13
oct.13
nov.13
dec.13
ian.14
feb.14
mar.14
apr.14
mai.14
iun.14
iul.14
aug.14
sep.14
oct.14
nov.14
dec.14
ian.15
feb.15
mar.15

IPC

3.14
2.72
2.59
2.40
1.80
1.79
2.04
3.00
3.88
5.33
4.96
4.56
4.95
5.97
5.65
5.25
5.29
5.32
5.37
4.41
3.67
1.88
1.88
1.83
1.55
1.06
1.05
1.04
1.21
0.94
0.66
0.95
0.84
1.54
1.44
1.26
0.83
0.41
0.40
0.79

CORE2
ajustat
2.37
2.27
2.04
2.02
2.11
2.15
2.08
2.33
2.56
3.00
3.34
3.26
3.25
3.17
3.10
3.03
2.90
2.65
2.85
2.49
2.24
0.49
-0.05
-0.22
-0.15
-0.07
-0.03
-0.04
-0.09
-0.13
-0.58
-0.49
-0.29
0.98
0.99
1.01
1.05
1.10
0.87
0.83

limita superioar limita inferioar

variaie anual (%)
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
3.96
3.92
3.88
3.83
3.79
3.75
3.71
3.67
3.63
3.58
3.54
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50

2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.96
1.92
1.88
1.83
1.79
1.75
1.71
1.67
1.63
1.58
1.54
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50

int

3.00

3.00

2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50

apr.15
mai.15
iun.15
iul.15
aug.15
sep.15
oct.15
nov.15
dec.15

3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50

1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50

Not: Limea intervalului de variaie este de 1 punct procentual.

Sursa: INS, calcule BNR

2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50

Capitolul I. EVOLUIA INFLAIEI

Grafic: Impactul preului petrolului asupra ratei inflaiei
Data
Jan/2012
Feb/2012
Mar/2012
Apr/2012
May/2012
Jun/2012
Jul/2012
Aug/2012
Sep/2012
Oct/2012
Nov/2012
Dec/2012
Jan/2013
Feb/2013
Mar/2013
Apr/2013
May/2013
Jun/2013
Jul/2013
Aug/2013
Sep/2013
Oct/2013
Nov/2013
Dec/2013
Jan/2014
Feb/2014
Mar/2014
Apr/2014
May/2014
Jun/2014
Jul/2014
Aug/2014
Sep/2014
Oct/2014
Nov/2014
Dec/2014
Jan/2015
Feb/2015
Mar/2015

efecte directe
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.00
-0.05
-0.13
0.03
0.12
0.01
-0.03
-0.02
-0.04
-0.03
0.03
-0.01
-0.07
-0.04
0.01
0.04
0.03
0.02
-0.03
-0.03
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.01
0.01
0.03
-0.01
-0.04
-0.03
-0.09
-0.11
-0.22
-0.26
0.07
0.13

efecte indirecte
contribuie; puncte procentuale
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.00
-0.03
-0.01
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
-0.03
-0.04

Sursa: Bloomberg, Eurostat, INS, estimri BNR

ali factori
0.32
0.58
0.35
0.06
0.24
0.06
0.53
0.37
1.17
0.35
0.08
0.62
1.35
0.31
0.05
0.19
0.28
0.00
-0.38
-0.21
-0.57
0.33
0.01
0.31
0.84
0.34
0.05
0.28
-0.05
-0.30
-0.04
-0.27
0.15
0.27
-0.08
0.13
0.70
0.28
0.32

IPC (sc. dr.)

variaie lunar (%)
0.36
0.64
0.42
0.07
0.20
-0.04
0.59
0.51
1.18
0.29
0.04
0.60
1.34
0.34
0.04
0.11
0.23
0.01
-0.34
-0.20
-0.57
0.29
-0.01
0.33
0.85
0.33
0.03
0.27
-0.04
-0.27
-0.05
-0.31
0.12
0.19
-0.19
-0.10
0.43
0.33
0.41

Capitolul I. EVOLUIA INFLAIEI

Grafic: Importurile de legume i fructe (LF) i preurile de consum
Data
Jan/2014
Feb/2014
Mar/2014
Apr/2014
May/2014
Jun/2014
Jul/2014
Aug/2014
Sep/2014
Oct/2014
Nov/2014
Dec/2014
Jan/2015
Feb/2015
Mar/2015
Sursa: INS, Eurostat

preuri legume
i fructe
variaie lunar (%)
4.6
1.9
0.1
-0.3
0.2
-3.8
-2.0
-6.0
0.5
2.5
-2.6
0.8
3.2
3.6
2.3

preuri legume i fructe

(medie 2010-2015)
variaie anual (%)
3.3
3.3
1.6
1.0
2.2
-3.0
-4.2
-3.7
0.2
1.6
-0.2
1.8
3.3
3.3
1.6

cantitate importat
(sc. dr.)

ie anual (%)
-11.8
7.0
3.9
-5.5
30.2
34.6
50.0
35.8
25.6
21.6
3.2
1.3
8.6

Capitolul I. EVOLUIA INFLAIEI

Grafic: Rata anual a inflaiei
Data
mar.14
apr.14
mai.14
iun.14
iul.14
aug.14
sep.14
oct.14
nov.14
dec.14
ian.15
feb.15
mar.15

CORE2
preuri
preuri
tutun i buturi
ajustat
administrate
volatile*
alcoolice
contribuie la rata inflaiei; puncte procentuale
-0.03
0.66
-0.17
0.58
-0.05
0.55
0.20
0.52
-0.03
0.52
-0.08
0.53
-0.24
0.51
-0.14
0.52
-0.13
0.28
0.28
0.52
-0.12
0.25
0.21
0.50
0.55
0.23
0.26
0.50
0.52
0.16
0.25
0.50
0.54
0.13
0.09
0.50
0.56
0.11
-0.34
0.50
0.58
0.25
-0.70
0.28
0.43
0.26
-0.51
0.22
0.44
0.27
-0.22
0.31

*) produse cu preuri volatile: legume, fructe, ou, combustibili

Sursa: INS, calcule BNR

Capitolul I. EVOLUIA INFLAIEI

Grafic: Ateptrile operatorilor economici privind inflaia

Data

industria
prelucrtoare

mar.14
apr.14
mai.14
iun.14
iul.14
aug.14
sep.14
oct.14
nov.14
dec.14
ian.15
feb.15
mar.15

Sursa: CE-DG ECFIN

comer

consumatori
(estimri pe 12
luni)

servicii

soldul opiniilor (%); estimri pe 3 luni,

date ajustate sezonier
3.7
16.6
8.0
33.8
5.9
17.7
5.9
13.6
2.3
12.1
1.5
12.5
1.6
7.4
1.4
7.3
2.8
2.2
1.5
-3.0
2.2
-1.1
1.7
5.5
2.6
6.3

2.1
5.1
2.2
3.2
0.5
1.2
-0.8
0.9
-1.3
-1.2
-3.9
0.7
0.1

38.0
41.1
38.7
36.0
28.3
32.9
32.5
27.0
15.4
8.6
8.3
5.7
2.9

Capitolul I. EVOLUIA INFLAIEI

Grafic: Rata medie anual a IAPC*
Data

UE-28

mar.14
apr.14
mai.14
iun.14
iul.14
aug.14
sep.14
oct.14
nov.14
dec.14
ian.15
feb.15
mar.15

procente
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.3

RO
2.3
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2

*) variaie medie a ultimelor 12 luni fa de cele 12 luni anterioare

Sursa: Eurostat